Dear RotoRob: What’s Captain Kirk Worth?
Spencer Hawes’ development is the key to a Hinrich-Felton deal.
Dear RotoRob.com,
I have an offer from a guy for Kirk Hinrich: Raymond Felton and Spencer Hawes. I have always liked Felton, but am worried about his progression. He can go off at times, but with J-Rich there will it limit his production from now on?
What are you thoughts?
Thanks
Daryl
I think Hawes is going to be good and he will be a guy that could see real minutes for the Kings in his rookie season with Brad Miller, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Kenny Thomas all on the back end of their careers. However, being a vital cog in the team’s engine doesn’t mean it will translate into fantasy numbers. I think Hawes has a good two, maybe even three seasons before you want him as your starting centre game in and game out.
I like Felton and with ‘Cats adding Richardson and re-signing Gerald Wallace, he should see some nice assist totals this season. I see the depth chart as Felton at PG, Richardson at SG, Wallace at SF, Emeka Okafor at PF/C and either Primoz Brezec or Jake Voskuhl (if they re-sign him) at C with Sean May (when healthy), Adam Morrison, Matt Carroll and Walter Herrmann as the key men off the bench.
Hinrich is on a really talented team, but he loses some minutes to Thabo Sefolosha and Chris Duhon. Rumors are floating that Duhon may be traded, so stay tuned there. But, to be able to add two players for one is a good fantasy move most of the time. And, this is the same. If you are playing for the longer term, I take Felton and Hawes. If you want to win now, I still take Hawes and Felton. I like Hawes, and Felton is not far from Hinrich in my book. If this is a keeper league I do it; if it is a redraft league I wait to see how Hawes pans out early on.
According to a spreadsheet I have, Hinrich was #35 last season, while Felton was #103. Felton will have to cut down on the turnovers and start shooting a lot better to reach anywhere near Hinrich’s status. It’s a tough case to make that he’ll improve that much, and Hawes will probably not be a top 100 player in his rookie season. Troy Murphy was #96 last season, which is I’d say about the best Hawes can hope to do.
For a keeper league, this is a decent trade, but I’d caution against trading a top 40 player for two top 100 players. Usually better to keep the higher rated guy, especially in redraft leagues.
I like Felton more than Kirk this season coming up. I think the Bulls have a very good young team, but Ben Gordon and Chris Duhon are going to want to see more minutes and there is only one person that will effect… Kirk. I think he is very good, but you put Felton in with Jason Richardson, Matt Carroll, Emeka Okafor, and Gerald Wallace… thats ALOT of assist chances right there!