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2008-09 NBA Draft Kit: Top 40 Guards

October 25, 2008 | By RotoRob | comment on this post

Alright, let’s get into these freakin’ cheat sheets already! For the rest of the 2008-09 RotoRob NBA Draft Kit, click here.

1. Chris Paul, PG, New Orleans Hornets: Paul stayed healthy, took care of the rock, and improved almost across the board last season. Don’t expect his PT to rise, but the sky is the limit for the No. 1 player in all of fantasy basketball.

2. Kobe Bryant, SG, Los Angeles Lakers: If Kobe can get to the line more and improve his FT shooting back to 2006-07 levels, he’ll again be a 30+ PPG man.

3. Dwyane Wade, PG/SG, Miami Heat: He’s finally healthy and this preseason has been showing a touch from downtown – the only aspect missing from his game. If you don’t care about TOs, Flash is one of the best in the biz, and he’s back, baby.

4. Deron Williams, PG, Utah Jazz: His outside touch bounced back last year, and he continues to improve at drawing fouls. Already over a 10 APG dude, how good can this kid get? We may find out this year, but his ankle injury will cost him the first few games of the season, dropping him below Wade.

5. Allen Iverson, PG/SG, Denver Nuggets: Sure, he’s getting on his years, but he still gets his shot off and does a pretty good job from the perimeter. Toss in the points, boards and steals, and the lowest turnover rate of this career, and AI is still worth using a late first round pick to obtain.

6. Steve Nash, PG, Phoenix Suns: Because his minutes and games will be limited, Captain Canada falls out of the first round, but keeping him fresh may prove to make him more productive in the long run. Keep in mind, Nash is coming off the best outside shooting season he’s ever had.

7. Baron Davis, PG, Los Angeles Clippers: B-Diddy stayed completely healthy last year for the first time since 2001-02, and he responded with his finest season yet. Right now, it appears the finger injury won’t be an issue, but what are the chances he stays completely healthy again this year?

8. Joe Johnson, PG/SG, Atlanta Hawks: I’d like to see Johnson’s steals bounce back, but a guard that can help out in virtually everything else – including rebounds – is pretty damn sweet.

9. Jason Richardson, SG/SF, Charlotte Bobcats: A true swingman, J-Rich enjoyed a great bounceback season, doing a good job of getting to the line, and contributing nicely off the glass – especially for someone you can use as a guard on your team.

10. Jose Calderon, PG, Toronto Raptors: Calderon needs to use his blow-by speed to draw more fouls – something that will help his scoring average soar, but the expected major breakout should happen this season.

11. Chauncey Billups, PG, Detroit Pistons:Mr. Big Shot’s touches are slipping on a deeper Detroit team, and his PT will likely slide a bit this season, but he remains a great bet.

12. Vince Carter, SG/SF, New Jersey Nets: Despite the fact he didn’t make a start at forward last year, Yahoo! has him qualified there, a nice bonus for his owners. VC’s rebounding has improved in the past couple of years, and he remains a solid scorer, but I’m concerned how this notorious suck is going to handle playing for what should be a struggling team this year.

13. Kevin Durant, SG/SF, Oklahoma City Thunder: Take a look at Durant’s numbers down the stretch – especially in terms of FG percentage – and you’ll get a preview of what to expect this season.

14. Brandon Roy, PG/SG, Portland Trailblazers: I’d like to see Roy’s 3-point accuracy bounce back this year, but the fact that he’s drawing more fouls is going to help him take his game to the next level.

15. Jason Kidd, PG, Dallas Mavericks: He’s going to slide in many drafts, but that may in fact make him quite valuable relative to draft position. J-Kidd is as durable as they come, and although his shooting will hurt you and his great rebounding totals are sliding, he still is a great source of steals and a veritable double-double machine.

16. Kevin Martin, SG, Sacramento Kings: Martin has become a bigger part of the King offense every season, and he did a superb job of getting to the line last year. I’d love to see more steals, because you know the blocks are non-existent, the boards are limited and the assists are also sparse, making him somewhat limited, fantasy-wise.

17. Andre Miller, PG, Philadelphia 76ers: Don’t expect him to match last season’s career-best 17 PPG with Elton Brand now in Philly, but Miller has consistently improved his TO rate, and makes for a fine PG option.

18. Tracy McGrady, SG/SF, Houston Rockets: Yes, the red flags are waving all around, but T-Mac was able to log fairly heavy minutes last year when he was in the lineup. He doesn’t employ the 3-pointer as much as he once did, but he can still produce even if we don’t know how many games he’ll actually play. McGrady’s swingman status is a nice bonus for his owners, too.

19. Ray Allen, SG, Boston Celtics: Allen’s touches were way down as part of the Big Three in Boston, but he shot better and remains a fantastic source of 3-pointers.

20. Mo Williams, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers: Williams has responded to increased PT by just continuing to improve. He never shot better last year and developed his outside game to new levels. There are questions about how he’ll co-exist with LeBron James in Cleveland, but Williams will still get his numbers.

21. Tony Parker, PG, San Antonio Spurs: Parker was able to log a few more minutes last year, when he was healthy that is, and he hoisted up a few more 3-pointers, but without much success. Still, he’ll get you some points, drop some dimes and does a good job of getting to the line.

22. Michael Redd, SG/SF: Although he made no starts at forward last year, he qualifies as a swingman. Redd didn’t have a banner season last year. His PT has been sliding in recent years and he’s not hoisting up as many 3-pointers. Fortunately, Redd is still a scoring machine, and that makes him worthy in this slot.

23. Devin Harris, PG, New Jersey Nets: Harris went a long way towards developing an outside presence last year, something that will make him much more valuable with his blow-by speed. He’s been seriously hyped – probably too much – but I’m expecting modest improvements.

24. Jamal Crawford, PG/SG, New York Knicks: Crawford stayed healthy, and shot a bit better en route to a career season. He may not be able to duplicate this as the Knicks try to spread things around, but he remains their top scoring option.

25. Mike Miller, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves: His back is always a concern, but Miller is going to anchor your outside game, and contribute in other areas, too.

26. Randy Foye, PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves: Health is the only thing holding Foye back now from making a run at elite PG status. I’d like to see him get to the line more, as that will really help his offense.

27. Mike Bibby, PG, Atlanta Hawks: Expect a big rebound season after Bibby spent much of last year sidelined. He shot well from downtown, rebounded better and improved his assist per game average even though it was a mostly lost season.

28. Raymond Felton, PG/SG, Charlotte Bobcats: Felton’s long-distance game has been deteriorating, but the rest of his numbers are getting better, especially his FT shooting.

29. Jason Terry, PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks: Terry’s PT dropped last season, as he spent more than half the season as a reserve. He’ll be the Mavs’ sixth man this season, but as long as his 3-point shooting bounces back, I’m expecting Terry to be rather useful.

30. Rajon Rondo, PG, Boston Celtics: Rondo made great progress last season – especially shining in the playoffs, but many people will overvalue him based on his post-season performance. He’s good, but not quite elite yet.

31. Rafer Alston, PG, Houston Rockets: Skip to My Lou has been pretty consistent the past couple of years, and he’s enjoyed more touches in each of the past two seasons, although last year he didn’t get off as many long bombs as usual. He’s a solid pick once the stud PGs are gone.

32. T.J. Ford, PG, Indiana Pacers: Ford’s PT was down significantly last year as he battled both injuries and the upstart Calderon. The latter is no longer a problem, but the former could rear its ugly head again at any time.

33. Leandro Barbosa, PG/SG, Phoenix Suns: Barbosa was unable to build on his breakout 2006-07 and his PT and touches dropped as a result. However, he remains among the top sources of treys in the association.

34. Richard Hamilton, SG, Detroit Pistons: While Rip’s scoring dipped, he used the long distance shot more than ever, and did quite well with it.

35. John Salmons, SG/SF, Sacramento Kings: Salmons is coming off his finest offensive year. Although he used the 3-pointer more, his accuracy left something wanting. He’s a nice sleeper pick with Ron Artest gone and Francisco Garcia hurting.

36. Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls: Rose will shift Kirk Hinrich to the two-guard spot – that’s how good this rookie has a chance to be. In terms of value for this season, flip a coin between him and Hinrich.

37. Kirk Hinrich, PG/SG, Chicago Bulls: The normally durable Hinrich missed more action than every before last year, and his play suffered badly – especially his outside game. I think it’s worth the gamble that Captain Kirk bounces back, and don’t worry – he’ll be seeing time at the two-guard, so will mostly be starting alongside Rose.

38. Ben Gordon, SG, Chicago Bulls: What the hell! Let’s have a Bulls’ backcourt party, shall we? Gordon will be coming off the bench mostly, but don’t worry – he’s actually better as a sixth man, averaging almost two more points per game in six and half less minutes as a reserve compared to when he starts.

39. Manu Ginobili, SG, San Antonio Spurs: Coming off a career year, Ginobili will miss a couple of months after ankle surgery, but he’s still worth a mid-round pick.

40. Monta Ellis, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors: Ellis shot the lights out during a breakout year last season, but in the offseason, he blew out his ankle and then lied about how it happened, earning himself a three-month suspension to begin the year. He’s a high risk/high reward pick this season as a result.

Others to Consider

Beno Urdih, Sacramento Kings
Jameer Nelson, Orlando Magic
Gilbert Arenas, Washington Wizards (if you have room to stash him on your bench until the second half)
Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
Anthony Parker, Toronto Raptors
O.J. Mayo, Memphis Grizzlies
Raja Bell, Phoenix Suns
Rudy Fernandez, Portland Trail Blazers

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8 Responses to “2008-09 NBA Draft Kit: Top 40 Guards”

  1. Don says:

    Brandon at 14? Whatever. He may be one of the best 3 all around guards in the league, was an all-star last year and improving year by year. With Oden, Fernandez & co, he will finally get help to relieve the double teams and pressure he had last year. I’d definitely take Roy ahead of Johnson, Iverson (who is a scoring machine but only because he takes so many shots – low %) or Nash.

  2. Lane says:

    Roy behind Durant is laughable.

  3. [...] If Kobe can get to the line more and improve his FT shooting back to 2006-07 levels, he??ll agahttp://www.rotorob.com/2008/10/25/2008-09-nba-draft-kit-top-40-guards/Defense delivers in Chiefs?? 33-19 win over Denver – Kansas City StarBy KENT BABB derrick johnson [...]

  4. RotoRob says:

    Uh-oh, here come the hardcore Portland fans again! Don’t get me wrong Don — I’m a huge Roy fan, and I’d be happy if he fell to me, but I won’t reach for him before third round, and then, later in the round. The reasons: his outside game hasn’t shown any progression and his assists are limited by being a two-guard. Having said that, if Roy avoids majory injury, it wouldn’t shock me if he were a top 10 guard by season’s end.

    Lane, I take it you’re another of the Portland Jail Blazers fans. As for Durant over Roy, Durant is already a better FT shooter, and his scoring potential is through the roof, especially given the lack of options to score around him in OKC. In Portland, there are lots of scoring possibilities, so I can’t see Roy doing much better than he did last year in terms of PPG; in fact, his touches will likely drop.

  5. [...] Given that he’s also added 2.5 APG to his average and it’s clear he’s far outshone our pre-season ranking as the 30th best guard. I’d say Rondo is now a top 20 guard – with a [...]

  6. [...] Phoenix, Mayo went off for a career high 33 points. He earned merely an honourable mention in our pre-season top 40 guard rankings, but Mayo has played like a top 20 guard so far, averaging 20.2 PPG, tops among rookies. I still [...]

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