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Dear RotoRob: Aaron or Oswalt?

January 30, 2010 | By Tim McLeod | comment on this post
Adam Dunn is a clear keeper for the Washington Nationals.
Regardless of his propensity for groping himself, Adam Dunn is a clear keeper.

Dear RotoRob,

I’m in a head to head keeper league that allows you to keep eight players. I have seven solid guys in Ichiro Suzuki, Chone Figgins, Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau, Josh Beckett, and Adam Wainwright. I’m stuck as to whether I should keep Aaron Hill or Roy Oswalt. I have two picks in the first round as well. Who should I keep?

Nick

Hey Nick,

I think that Hill has got to be your man. Starting pitching comes and goes, but a 30-homer guy in the middle infield just can’t be passed up. I’ve now done approximately 20 mock drafts this year and have found there to be plenty of options to fill out your pitching, but 2B, SS, and especially 3B, gets a tad thin fairly quickly. Shore up those slots as early as you can. With that great group of keepers and those two first round picks you should be in for a great 2010 season.

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3 Responses to “Dear RotoRob: Aaron or Oswalt?”

  1. Buck Davidson says:

    Hi Nick:

    I’ll throw in with Tim on this one. I’m expecting Hill to fall back a bit this season, but even something along the lines of .280-25-85 (which I think is a virtual certainty) from a middle infielder trumps whatever Oz could do for you in the best of circumstances. I love Oswalt as a later-round sleeper, but even though he’s only 32 years old, he has a ton of miles on his tires. He’s not a big guy, and I’d be worried that all those innings will hasten his eventual breakdown.

    Hill, meanwhile, posted numbers that were way out of step with his career norms – in both majors and minors. I’m not convinced that he can replicate them, but his .291-17-78 back in ‘07 leads me to believe that he can sustain 20-25 HR power at the absolute minimum. Given that only four second basemen exceeded 20 HR and hit at least .280 last season, Hill’s skill set is a rare commodity indeed. Even though I think Oz will rebound and Hill will regress – a bit – this one’s a no-brainer. Keep Hill and enjoy the ride.

    Tim – Twenty mocks already? You are my hero, you MadMan you.

  2. Tim McLeod says:

    Thanks for chipping in with your thoughts, Buck, always appreciated. I agree with your detailed analysis and would like to add that I think Hill’s RBI numbers could even potentially be lower. Who does he have batting in front of him coming into 2010 that will be getting on base? He still is and should be ranked in the top 7-8 at his position and makes for a great keeper when compared with Oz but being conservative with ones’ expectations is the prudent course for 2010.
    I’m an old Boy Scout, Buck and strongly believe in their motto, “Be Prepared.” I usually do anywhere from 50-70 mocks prior to my spring drafts, testing and trying out various strategies and theories. The knowledge gained from mock drafting and practising the craft is invaluable come draft day. Catch you tonight in the draft room over at MDC!

  3. [...] Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays (16): Hill is a clear keeper, but how can he possibly duplicate a 2009 season when he exceeded everyone’s expectations [...]

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