Dear Playoff Fantasy Football Owners,

You obviously got this far because you have some sort clue of what is going on in the world of Fantasy football. The fact that the playoffs for Fantasyland occur during such an akward time of the year for the actual teams, it presents a new set of challenges. For instance, will the Colts limit their starters or sit them completely? You rode Peyton Manning all season, but is now the time of year to bench him for someone else?
 
Let’s take a look at some teams and the situations they are in.
 
New Orleans Saints (13-1): Despite the fact that the Saints are a win away from locking up home field throughout and a bye, they seem to be leaning towards playing out each game with starters. But, since they lost their undefeated status, they may start to limit reps if in Week 17 if they have nothing to play for. All Saints seem to be a safe play this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

 
Minnesota Vikings (11-3): For a team with only three losses, Minnesota seems to have lots of communication issues it needs to iron out. I don’t think going on the road to play the Bears in the cold will help the old man at quarterback. I would not start Brett Favre this week as he has struggled recently in cold weather. You can find at least 10 other guys to start over Favre this week; hopefully you have one on your bench. I think the Vikings try to get Adrian Peterson and the running game tuned up for the playoffs, so he should be a solid play.
 
Philadelphia Eagles (10-4): The Iggles are trying to catch the Vikings for that first-round bye, so they will be playing all out this week against the Broncos. The problem is that the Bronco pass defense has been quite solid, so I don’t think Donovan McNabb will put up huge numbers, but unless you have another top flight QB, he will be your team’s starter. To further complicate matters, Brian Westbrook may play, but he surely won’t be his normal self. I would not trust LeSean McCoy either, but wide receiver DeSean Jackson is a must-start.
 
Arizona Cardinals (9-5): The Cardinals have locked up the division and unlikely will snag a first round bye, so they basically have nothing to play for, but they play the Rams this week. Kurt Warner will want to light up his former team, and should have every opportunity to do so. Coach Ken Whisenhut said the starters will play, mostly because the Cardinals could mathematically still get the No. 2 seed. My guess is that starters play this week and rest in Week 17 after the Cards are locked into their seeding. Play Warner and his talented skilled position players.

Indianapolis Colts (14-0): Will they or won’t they? I think the Colts will have this game locked up by halftime. The Jets have been up and down all season, but the Colts are rolling and Mark Sanchez still makes way too many mistakes to keep his Jets alive in this game. The Jets just lost a heartbreaker and may come out slow against the fast starting Colts. If you start Manning this week, you better hope he gets his scores in early, as I doubt he will finish the game.

Hello, December.

Now that we are roughly a quarter of the way through the regular season, we can start to assess how this class of rookies is performing. From a Fantasy perspective, this may not be as deep as those classes in years past, but there are still a couple studs and a few diamonds in the rough. These rankings are based on my projection of how they can help your Fantasy team for the rest of the 2009-2010 season. If you are in a keeper league, your strategy obviously changes and there may be a few guys to stash that you would not usually have on a one-year team.

1. Brandon Jennings, PG, Milwaukee Bucks: What Jennings has done so far this season is truly amazing considering the scepticism about him on draft day. Clearly, the idea of circumventing getting drafted out of college by going to Europe after high school is a trend that could grow thanks to this test case. He already gets mid-30 minutes and fills the box score with 21 PPG, almost six assists, and four boards per game. But the true test of Jennings’ value can be found in the fact that the Bucks have been a pleasant early season surprise despite the annual injuries to Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd. Jennings has already made good progress in terms of cutting down the turnovers and once he figures out shot selection, he will be an absolute Fantasy stud. Continue to start him even when Redd comes back, as this should be a productive year for the young Buck.

2. Tyreke Evans, PG, Sacramento Kings: His numbers are actually quite similar to Jennings, but Evans does not shoot as well from downtown (especially lately) and does more work on the drive. Coming off his second 30-point effort of the season, Evans is an attractive Fantasy player because he always gets plenty of minutes. He is a future All-Star and you did well if you drafted him this year. Continue to start Evans as he will maintain value throughout the year, although his touches will likely dip once Kevin Martin returns.

3. Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors: With all the uncertainty surrounding Don Nelson and Warriors, it’s hard to project the value of Curry. But now that team cancer Stephen Jackson is gone, it’s opened up playing time for the rook. Nellie — currently battling pneumonia — is not afraid to throw four guards on the floor so position has little to do with Curry’s PT. He is a player that I see improving dramatically over the course of this season, and you can already see that he’s getting more touches lately. Curry is a nice fill in player for Fantasy owners over the coming months, but he is too inconsistent at this point. He’s getting much more burn in December so far, so now is the time to employ him if for some reason you’ve been waiting.

4. Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers: Even though Griffin has not played yet because of a stress fracture in his left knee), I still think he is a top five rookie for this season – and considering he won’t be back until January, that’s not a glowing review of this draft class. While he was originally expected to miss six weeks, Griffin will end up missing at least half of his rookie campaign. When he does get back, I expect 18 PPG and 9 RPG numbers as the Clip Show — even though they are improved this season — should be tanking towards another lottery pick. Stash the big guy if you can.

5. Jonny Flynn, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves: Although Flynn is a guy that has gotten off to a solid start, I am not convinced that he can help you Fantasy team this season. His shot is not very consistent (although he snapped a slump with a 7-for-12 performance for 16 points on Saturday) and he shoots under 33 per cent from long range. Flynn averages around 14 PPG, but you would like to get more than 3.5 APG from your point guard. On the plus side, as his PT creeps up, Flynn is starting to drop more dimes — he’s averaging 5.7 per game in December. He’s exciting, but he may never be that can’t-miss Fantasy player.

6. James Harden, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder: I see him having some very nice box scores this year (how about that explosion Monday night?), but he will not be consistent enough to place in your weekly starting lineup. Harden is a nice guy to stash on your bench until he gets more comfortable, or the Thunder suffers an injury that opens up time for the former Sun Devil. I am also surprised to see him chuck up so many three pointers, but if he starts to hit them, he could be a categorical asset to your squad. Unfortunately, Harden is really struggling with his perimeter game right now.

7. Omri Casspi, SF, Sacramento Kings: Who? Maybe you should Wikipedia him. Casspi has really impressed the King coaches with his stellar play. He has scored in double digits in seven of the last eight games, which is impressive since he’s been coming off the bench. Sunday, for instance, Casspi poured in 14 points despite battling foul trouble. He’s canned at least one trey in eight of nine games. Casspi is a definitely a guy to monitor and add to your team if you see he is getting more minutes. I have no doubt that he will put up some nice games this year, it’s just a matter of using him at the right time. If an injury opens up playing time, Casspi could be a good fill-in. By the way, how about a big-up for the job the Kings did at the draft in June? Nice results so far!

8. DeJuan Blair, PF, San Antonio Spurs: I am convinced that if Blair played 30 minutes a game, he would average around 14 points and 12 boards. He has long arms to make up for his height restriction at the four spot, and it is clear that he understands how to play basketball. I am not sure how Blair slipped to the second round, but count on the Spurs to once again find a gem, this time at No. 37. If Blair sees more court time this season (and his PT is on the rise), he could fill the stat sheet for your team. You should monitor Blair’s minutes, and take a flier on him if you have an opening.

9. Terrence Williams, SF, New Jersey Nets: T-Will might be having the worst rookie season of any player that averages nearly 10 points and almost five boards. He is shooting a horrible percentage — and it’s getting worse not better — but he is on a bad team that is looking at the lottery next year already. Bad teams play young players, so Williams has a chance to turn it up and have a productive rookie year. I would keep an eye on T-Will as he has potential as a Fantasy fill in. Unfortunately, he’s having a really tough time adjusting to life in the NBA and the frustrations are showing as evidenced by his recent Twitter tirades.

10. Tyler Hansbrough, PF, Indiana Pacers: For some reason, I think Psycho-T will be a close to double-double guy in the NBA just because of his style of play. In a league where half-assing it until the fourth quarter is so common, Hansbrough maintains that college spirit and will just fight and scrap all game. He is just now coming back from injury, so it may take him a while to work his way into the rotation, but the Pacers drafted him to play this year. He could be a Fantasy asset down the stretch, so keep an eye on him. I would definitely like to see Hansbrough start to play more aggressively and earn a few more freebies from the line — that will help him jack his scoring average up quickly.

Notes

• Darren Collison has had a nice stretch, but with Chris Paul back, his Fantasy value was virtually removed. If you have him, I would try to trade him for something, or drop him and look elsewhere.
• I really like what Ty Lawson has done so far, but he does not get enough clock to deserve a spot on your Fantasy team in a standard-sized league. Having said that, keep an eye on him — he’s definitely causing the Nuggets to more freely rest Chauncey Billups.
• Marcus Thornton had a few good games, but he was taking CP3’s shots while he was on the bench hurt, so he’s in the same boat as Collison now.
• If you think Hasheem Thabeet will help your Fantasy team this year, you are crazy. If you think Thabeet will ever be a Fantasy asset other than blocks, I still think you are crazy.
• Jordan Hill has only played 80 minutes all season. Remind me again why the Knicks — desperately in need of a point guard — passed on Jennings?
• Jonas Jerebko deserves a bit of love considering how well he’s played of late, but I’m even more excited by the long-term prospects for fellow Piston freshman Austin Daye.
• Chase Budinger has really impressed me. I think the Rockets are a great fit for him. Keep an eye on the former Wildcat.
• DeMar DeRozan has averaged 16 points over the last three games, but seems to be soft on the boards and won’t get you many assists. A forward that doesn’t get boards, blocks, assists or steals is tough to carry.
• Sam Young’s PT is starting to creep up. He’s far from being a Fantasy option at this point, but Memphis is definitely going to want to get a longer look at him after it starts to fade.
• Bobcats rookie Gerald Henderson has not played as much as I expected, and the arrival of Stephen Jackson won’t help that, however the former Blue Devil is seeing much more action so far this month.
• With Luis Scola, Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes all getting it done in front of him, there’s been precious little PT for David Andersen in Houston — especially lately.
• Bulls rookie Taj Gibson has stepped up with Tyrus Thomas hurting, averaged 7.4 points and 5.8 boards this season — pretty solid numbers for a part-time rook. On Friday, he showed what he’s capable of with a career-high 13 boards while adding 14 points.

We’re back with more of the 2009-10 RotoRob NBA Draft Kit as we delve into the world of sleepers. In this information driven society we live in, are there really any sleepers in Fantasy sports anymore? Back in the day, you had a serious advantage in a draft if you simply did your homework and looked for breakout potential. Nowadays, everyone has that information, by one simple click of the mouse.

What I hope to accomplish here is to just identify some of the guys that could really help your team. I’m talkin’ bout guys that other people may sleep on — whether it is guys who have been injured and are ready to regain their status as league elite, or that former 12th man who will finally get a chance to contribute. My goal for this list is to give you some talent to chew on and hopefully it will allow you to catch your fellow Fantasy mates off guard.

Here are my top 10 guys that will make your buddies envious come December. These are in reverse order of sleepiness, just to build the tension:

10. Brandon Rush, SG, Indiana Pacers: The fact that Rush sits behind Dahntay Jones on the depth chart does not bother me at all. Rush had a decent rookie year and will definitely see more court time this year. D. Jones is an energy guy who does not score with ease, so his impact on the team will be limited. I see Rush being inserted in the game to heat it up from beyond the arc. Also, he will get his fair share of steals and will occasionally get some blocks. I like Rush in his sophomore year to start to contribute on a more consistent basis. I would look to pick him up in the last round or two in a standard 12-team league.

9. Hakim Warrick, PF, Milwaukee Bucks: Warrick falls into the category of guys who will compile stats just because he is on the floor so much. Seriously, the frontcourt in Milwaukee is pretty dreadful. Warrick will be competing with Kurt Thomas, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Joe Alexander, Walter Sharpe, Francisco Elson, etc. Sure, there is some experience and talent among those names, but Warrick should have no problem averaging 30 minutes a game. He averaged nearly 12 points, 5 rebounds, 0.5 blocks, and 0.5 steals a game in less than 25 minutes last season, so given a few extra minutes, it stands to reason those numbers will go up accordingly. If Warrick seizes the opportunity, he could step his game up and become a solid Fantasy player.

8. Drew Gooden, C, Dallas Mavericks: I really like the addition of Gooden to the Dallas Mavericks. I expect him to play around 28-to-30 minutes per game while starting at centre. He will play over incumbent Erick Dampier and will eat up minutes formerly consumed by the now exiled Brandon Bass. If Gooden proves his worth early, he could prevent coach Rick Carlisle from running with a small lineup that would include Dirk Nowitzki at centre and Gooden on the bench. I think you can safely pencil in Gooden for 12 points and 8 rebounds a game. He also shoots free throws quite well (84 per cent last year), which is a definite plus from the centre position.

7. Spencer Hawes, C, Sacramento Kings: The third-year centre out of Washington is an intriguing Fantasy player for the upcoming season. At 7’0”, 245 pounds, he is pretty soft and doesn’t get as many rebounds as he should, but he has other dimensions to his game that can help your squad. Last year he averaged 11.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, and 0.5 3-pointers per game. That’s right, a fluffy seven footer hit 40 three pointers last year.  He averaged just under 30 minutes per game last year, and that is sure to rise as he is entering the season as the starter. Hawes competed for playing time much of last year with fellow white guy Brad Miller. Don’t overlook Hawes when it comes to filling in your roster, especially if your team is built to make up his deficiencies on the board. Just please do me a favour and don’t accidentally draft Spencer Pratt.

6. Robin Lopez, C, Phoenix Suns: The exodus of the great Shaq-tus has left a giant void in the desert. The Suns brought in Channing Frye, whom coach Alvin Gentry said is the favourite to start the season on top of the depth charts. This comment does not scare me away from Lopez, who will become a rebound and block machine if he gets court time. He is an offensively challenged player at this point, but he has the size to contribute on the court. I would not mind taking a flier on this big guy, as it could pay dividends if Lopez steps up his game and takes advantage of the opportunity to play.

5. Courtney Lee, SG, New Jersey Nets: See, I am not sure how to classify Lee. I think either people will overvalue him because he was traded (or at least was the key component in the deal) for Vince Carter, or just totally sleep on the fact that he was traded for Vince Carter. I am including him on this sleeper list because I think his average draft position in most leagues will be way too low. Lee is a great defender who I project to finish in the top 10 in steals and finish with over a three pointer made per game. He will score plenty of points and be a great complimentary guard to Devin Harris. I love that backcourt and I think that they will put up some giant numbers this season. Be on C-Lee Watch and if you see reasonable spot to snag him, don’t let the opportunity pass.

4. Jason Thompson, PF, Sacramento Kings: First off, I like Thompson as a Fantasy player more than his teammate Hawes, who is featured on this list as well. Thompson is a second year guy who averaged 11 points, 7.5 rebounds, and nearly 0.75 blocks per game in 28 minutes a contest. This season, he will most likely play around 32-to-35 minutes a game and will see his numbers move upwards. I like Thompson to be a double-double machine this year and hopefully get his blocks per game up to around one. A big problem last year was that the Kings had Thompson guarding small forwards often, which probably fatigued him as he was always running around chasing wings.

3. Louis Williams, PG, Philadelphia 76ers: After playing second fiddle to Andre Miller for a few years, Sweet Lou Williams is ready to assume the role of starting point guard in Sixerland. His stats last season (13 points, 3 assists, 2 rebounds and 1 steal a game) were not very impressive, but you have to realize that he only played 23 minutes a game. Coach Eddie Jordan already came out and said Williams can expect 38 minutes a game. The biggest concern with Williams is his poor shooting percentage, so hopefully that is something he has been working on. If things go according to plan, I could see him averaging 20 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game, which would make him an awesome Fantasy steal. I also expect him to average at least a three pointer made per game, which would make Williams quite the stat stuffer. If you plan on taking him, I would hedge my approach by loading up on big men with high field goal percentages to help offset some potential growing pains.

2. Antonio McDyess, PF, San Antonio Spurs: Laugh now, but once McDyess is averaging a double-double a month or two in the season, you will only feel regret in not snagging this aging vet. McDyess averaged 12 points, 11 rebounds and 1.6 blocks a game in the second half last season with the Pistons. He was signed by the Spurs to be their starting power forward and team up with future HOFer Tim Duncan. The Spurs drafted DeJuan Blair and signed Theo Ratliff, but McDyess was the one brought in to eat up the minutes left by the departure of Fabricio Oberto, Thomas and Gooden. If McDyess holds up health wise, you could have yourself a solid Fantasy contributor, especially in rebounds and blocks.

1. Gilbert Arenas, PG, Washington Wizards: Yes, two years ago he was considered a top 10, even top five player, and now he is on a sleeper list? How is this possible? Well, people are sleeping on Agent Zero’s ability to regain his crown as the prince of Washington D.C. He is not doing a ton of talking, he stopped blogging, and he is back to his gym-rat self. The biggest change in this offseason compared to the past is that he teamed up with legendary trainer Tim Grover to totally rebuild the strength in his injured knee. Arenas is supposedly back to form and as explosive as ever. He’s a sleeper because many people will not touch him in the first two rounds. I am declaring him a top 15 Fantasy player this season. He is somewhat a risky second round pick, but I think he could perform like a first rounder this season. Don’t sleep on the drive Arenas has and the work he puts in to constantly make his game better. In 2006-07, his last full year, he averaged 28 points, 6 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2.5 three pointers a game, all while maintaining a great free throw percentage and respectable field goal percentage. These are the numbers I expect from Arenas this season, and his draft position will not correspond to those numbers. I, for one, won’t be sleeping on Gilbert.

The 2009 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit continues today with the final team preview. Next up, we’ve got customizable cheat sheets, rookies, sleepers and a column about new faces in new places. With images of Michael Vick crying in prison, let’s review the Washington Redskins, who will look to get back to playing winning football in 2009.

What Went Right

The Jim Zorn era got off to a fast start in 2008, with the team managing victories in six of its first eight games. The team was winning close games and Zorn was playing the part of riverboat gambler. With that 6-2 start came expectations that were never realized last year, but the team did have some bright spots. RB Clinton Portis continued on his path to Canton as he rushed for nearly 1,500 yards to go along with nine rushing touchdowns. Tight end Chris Cooley caught a ton of balls (83), but only managed to get in the end zone once. Wide out Santana Moss had a decent year with over 1,000 yards receiving and six scores. Outside of the three mentioned, the team had no other viable Fantasy starters. The defense was stellar, but did not create turnovers or score defensive touchdowns. Rookie defensive back Chris Horton was a giant bright spot for the ‘Skins as he anchored the strong safety position at close to a Pro Bowl level.

What Went Wrong

About halfway through the season, injuries and lack of depth on the offensive line finally caught up to the Redskins. The line was not providing adequate time for the offense to execute, which shortened the playbook and made the team plain, predictable, and ineffective. What started as such a promising season, ended in disappointment and no playoff berth. Overall, 8-8 was not too bad for a rookie head coach in a pressure-packed market, but considering the Redskins made the playoffs the season before, 2008 was a letdown.

Off-season Outlook

The Redskins made arguably the biggest off-season splash when the signed stud defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. He is known for causing havoc and severely disrupting what opposing offenses are trying to accomplish. The team also released aging veterans Jason Taylor, Marcus Washington and Shawn Springs, all of whom did not produce to expected levels last season.

I think it is well known in the Washington media that this is a make or break year for Coach Zorn. If the team does not show improvements (on the field and in the standings), owner Dan Snyder will make a coaching change next offseason.

Draft Outlook

Without a second- or fourth-round draft pick this year, the Redskins must have been happy when pass rushing specialist DE/LB Brian Orakpo fell to them at No. 12 overall. He will immediately see the field, most likely as a pass rushing linebacker. With their third-round pick, the Redskins selected Kevin Barnes, who hopes to prove himself as an NFL caliber cornerback during camp. The ‘Skins filled out the rest of their draft with two linebackers, a tight end, and a wide receiver who all will have little to no impact in the foreseeable future.

State of the Team

Quarterbacks

Jason Campbell is the clear cut starter in DC, but this could be his last year if he does not step up his game. He is a free agent after this season and the Redskins have made it clear that they are not sold on him as their long-term quarterback. Campbell is not a top 15 Fantasy quarterback and should not be relied upon as such. He may turn into a nice waiver wire pickup this year if he finally picks up his passing numbers. The back-up job is being battled out during camp, but it looks like the position belongs to sophomore Colt Brennan. He showed flashes last preseason and he looks forward to showing the team brass that he is the real deal.

Running Backs

If healthy, you can pencil in Portis for 1,300 yards and close to 10 scores, although Washington may try to reduce his workload in an attempt to keep him fresh throughout the season. If Portis goes down, backup Ladell Betts becomes an immediate Fantasy pickup, as he has shown in the past to be a reliable ball carrier who can make some plays.

Wide Receivers

Going into the season, the wide receiving corps is one of the huge question marks on the team. Second-year guys Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas need to justify their second round billing by stepping into the role of No. 2-type receivers to take some pressure off the oft double teamed Moss. I like Thomas as a sleeper this year, especially because of his leaping ability potentially transforming into touchdown-producing situations. Antwaan Randle El should return to being a slot/third wide out because he is not talented enough or big enough to be a secondary wide receiver lining up outside.

Tight Ends

Everyone knows who Cooley is by now, but watch out for TE2 Fred Davis. He is a second-year guy out of USC who won the Mackey Award as the best tight end in college. He is super athletic and has decent hands. Davis was a bit of a knucklehead last season, but he seems to be more focused and ready to produce this year. Cooley is still a great Fantasy option, but Davis may start stealing some of his catches.

Defense/Special Teams

The Redskin defensive unit has the potential to be great this year, but in the past they have lacked the big game-changing plays that translate into Fantasy points. Possibly, with the addition of Haynesworth and the re-signing of DeAngelo Hall, more big plays will come this season. I would take a shot at the ‘Skins this year as my Fantasy defense as they should be cheap and reliable.

As part of the 2009 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit, we wanted to present you with the results of the 2009 Fantasy Football Expert Mock Draft No. 3, hosted by the folks at MockDraftCentral.com on Tuesday. I represented RotoRob.com in this mock draft and I picked seventh overall. The expert panel consists of 12 guys representing various media outlets, including Mock Draft Central, KFFL, Fantasy Pros 911, Roto Experts, Sports Illustrated and Time Warner. The 15-round draft included the following starting positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, DEF, K. This is a non-PPR mock with QB touchdowns worth four points, one point for every 20 pass yards, one point for every 10 rushing or receiving yards, and six points for a rush or receiving touchdown.

5:08 p.m.: Just starting to do some pre-mock preparations when I notice that the guy picking 10th, Scott Swanay, has an Applied Math & Computer Science degree from Harvard. I expect him to fool us all with his mathematical trickery.

5:14 p.m.: When I prepare for a draft, I like to take a look at my position and try to get a feel for what options I am going to have for the first five rounds. I will be picking sevent, 18th, 31st, 42nd, and 55th overall. My first five rounds could look like this: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans; Randy Moss, WR, New England Patriots (I almost wrote Vikings; apparently, I am stuck in 2003); Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers; Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland Browns. I am not sure how much I would love this draft, but I do love me some young and energetic running backs. The draft is scheduled for 8:00 p.m.

5:26 p.m.: Taking a closer look at the first round pick, I will most likely have to choose from the following: Steven Jackson (RB, St. Louis Rams), Johnson (RB, Titans) and DeAngelo Williams (RB, Panthers). Under this scenario, I think I would lean towards Johnson. I love his game, but he could be overvalued this early.

5:29 p.m.: As far as quarterbacks go, my strategy most likely will be to wait until late and grab two starting QBs with the potential for breakout years and have the ability to pick based on matchups throughout the year. I think once you get past Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, there is not a huge difference between someone you can steal late. My plan is to get these two guys in the late rounds: Trent Edwards (QB, Buffalo Bills) and Jason Campbell (QB, Washington Redskins). I would take a look at Carson Palmer if the price was right.

6:08 p.m.: Looking at the top 20 rankings from a bunch of different sites, it is amazing to me that Steve Slaton was taken so late in the actual NFL Draft last year. He is arguable the ninth or 10th best Fantasy running back coming into this year, which is exactly how many running backs went before him in last year’s draft.

6:13 p.m.: I think Jackson and LaDainain Tomlinson will bounce back with amazing years, if healthy.

6:15 p.m.: This year’s rookie running backs to watch include Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, LeSean McCoy, and Chris “Beanie” Wells. This group probably won’t best the 2008 class of Matt Forte, Stewart, Johnson and Slaton, but it will be interesting to see how their situations play out. I think Wells could easily beat out Tim Hightower and be the starter from Week One in Arizona. Brown is an amazing runner and will push Joseph Addai for playing time. McCoy could see a ton of action if Brian Westbrook keeps getting hurt. Moreno is a stud, but Josh McDaniels likes to have a stable of running backs and use them all.

6:21 p.m.: Note to all Willie Parker fans and owners: Rashard Mendenhall is awesome and, if healthy, will leave Parker with fewer carries.

6:23 p.m.: My pre-season vote for NFC Rookie of the Year goes to Michael Crabtree of the 49ers. In the AFC, I have Brown of the Colts. The stat that typically gives the best idea of whether a receiver will translate to the next level: receiving touchdowns in college. Crabtree had 41 in two years at Texas Tech.

6:31 p.m.: My sleeper of the year is Earl Bennett, WR, Chicago Bears. Bennett was a teammate of Jay Cutler during their Vanderbilt days, so Cutler trusts him. Plus, the Bears have a lack of depth at WR, so Bennett is sure to see the field a ton. Think Eddie Royal-type performances.

6:55 p.m.: Seared Ahi Tuna with soy sauce, ginger, and sesame oil. It’s the pre-mock draft dinner of champions.

7:00 p.m.: My main target for TE is Greg Olsen of the Chicago Bears. Cutler loves using his TE and Olsen is actually the best target they have. I am ready to have my annual “laugh at the guy who takes Tony Gonzalez way too early” moment. This is an expert’s draft though…I might have to wait until August.

7:15 p.m.: 45 minutes until go time. I fully expect Adrian Peterson to go No. 1, but after that it could get interesting. This is not like other years where there is basically no guesswork in the top three. I think Maurice Jones-Drew could see a huge spike in production with Fred Taylor heading north to New England.

7:25 p.m.: I am convinced that I am going to go RB in the first round and then WR in second round. Wow, I absolutely hate picking between fifth and eighth in a 12-team league.

7:53 p.m.: After some technical SNAFUs I am in the draft room and ready to rock it!

Round One: No real surprises here except Jackson fell all the way to 11, about four to six spots farther than he really should land. I end up taking Johnson with the No. 7 pick. Late in the first round, Moss and Andre Johnson go off the board. I think Slaton going No. 10 is a little high.

Round Two: Wide receivers dominate the deuce by filling seven draft spots. The biggest surprise here for me is Brees going 13th overall. I think that you will overpay for him this year and if you want a top tier QB, it may be best to wait another couple rounds and snag someone like Aaron Rodgers, who may even give Brees a run for his money. I took WR Steve Smith (Panthers) in the second round — a player I usually shy away from because of candy-armed Jake Delhomme.

Round Three: After taking a RB and WR, I was planning on taking another wide out in this round until I saw Brady was still on the board. I am a huge advocate of waiting on QBs for the later rounds, but I just think Brady is worth more than a mid-third round pick. I ended up taking him and passing on a running back such as Pierre Thomas, Thomas Jones, Darren McFadden, or Marshawn Lynch, all of whom went in this round after my pick.

Round Four: Going into this round, I had three guys on my list to take with this pick. Since I needed a running back they were, in order, Larry Johnson, Moreno and Stewart. All three were available and I took LJ, banking on him staying injury free and happy. The first rookie went off the board this round when Moreno was drafted with the 10th pick. So after four rounds, my roster looks like such: QB Brady, RB Chris Johnson, RB Larry Johnson, WR Smith. I think that is a fairly explosive squad thus far.

Round Five: Just like last round, I had running back on the mind. I wanted to take either Stewart or the rookie Brown. Stewart gets picked third, leaving me to see what Brown can do for me. Many would question this move, but I think Addai will be phased out and the Colts did not spend a first-round pick for the guy to ride the pine. I love having Brown as my third running back.

Round Six: Nothing too crazy here. I drafted Santonio Holmes to shore up my receiving corps. It was a tough decision between Holmes and second-year guy Donnie Avery. I like the fact Avery plays on turf at least eight times a year, but I think Holmes will put up better numbers. Lee Evans, my target pick for this round, was snagged a couple slots ahead of me.

Round Seven: Instead of filling my starting positions, I took a fourth running back here in Felix Jones. This second-year guy is super talented and will get every opportunity to get as many touches he can handle. I like the depth my squad has and Jones is a wildcard who could pay off greatly. I did not see any WR that I had to have in this round, so I will wait to fill the starting WR and TE spots I have left.

Round Eight: Needing a TE, I selected Olsen of the Bears. I believe he is the best option for Cutler and he will use him to the fullest. I really think Olsen will have a Pro Bowl year and put up numbers comparable to new Falcon TE Gonzalez. Call me crazy. FYI: Crabtree was selected late in this round. He may be a better option in keeper leagues, but we’ll see.

Round Nine: I go WR and take Jeremy Maclin, a rookie for the Eagles, who will surely see the field a lot this year. The Eagles love to pass and Maclin gives them another option. The first defense (Pittsburgh) goes off the board with the next pick.

Round 10: I like what I have so far. I added another rookie wide receiver when I take Hakeem Nicks of the Giants. I think he will try to replace Plaxico Burress in that offense. I saw Nicks play a lot in college and I think he has what it takes. My hope would be that either Maclin and Nicks step up and play a prominent role in their respective offense.

Rounds 11-15: The last five rounds I took Edwards, Redskins’ Defense, Chris Henry (WR, Cincinnati Bengals), Devin Thomas and kicker Robbie Gould.

Final Roster

QB: Tom Brady, Trent Edwards
RB: Chris Johnson, Larry Johnson, Donald Brown, Felix Jones
WR: Steve Smith, Santonio Holmes, Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, Chris Henry, Devin Thomas
TE: Greg Olsen
K: Robbie Gould
DEF: Redskins

I would like to thank the guys at Mock Draft Central for putting on the mock draft; I had a blast. Here is a link to the results.

We’ve got more of the 2009 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit for you today with yet another team preview (we’re now well over halfway through these puppies). We’re going to try to shoot out all these team previews and then start releasing the kit’s other goodies (cheat sheets, sleepers/busts lists, etc.). While you wonder whether Michael Vick is fit to work with children, let’s see if the Jets have what it takes to build on last year’s recovery and make it back to the postseason for the first time since 2006.

What Went Right

The signing of farmhand Brett Favre brought a Hilton-esque (Paris, not Nicky) feel to the Jets’ 2008 season. New York got off to a great start, opening the season with eight wins in their first 11 games. Favre was jumping around like a schoolboy, there fans were chanting (J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS) and Eric Mangini looked like a boy-genius. Everything seemed on track for a storybook ending until about Week 13. Fantasy-wise, the only stud on the team was running back Thomas Jones, who racked up over 1,500 combined yards to go with 15 total touchdowns.

What Went Wrong

Nothing really went wrong until the calendar turned to December, as the Jets lost four of their last five games, resulting in another season at home come playoff time. Some would wonder if Favre’s old bones have hindered his cold weather performance late in his career, but there is probably myriad issues. It was realized this offseason that he played a good amount of the season with a fairly serious shoulder injury that most definitely would have affected his play. Outside of Favre’s problems, this team was filled with mediocre and below average Fantasy players that were never really on the radar.

Off-season Outlook

After the late-season collapse, Mangini was fired and replaced with Rex Ryan, the former assistant head coach of the Ravens. He brought with him LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard, who were both signed by the Jets as free agents. The other notable move was acquiring CB Lito Sheppard from the Eagles for draft picks. With the change of leadership, the Jets should be more focused on defense this year and will play a more conservative brand of football on offense.

Draft Review

This was a big offseason for the Jets as they drafted their quarterback of the future, Mark Sanchez. Also drafted was running back Shonn Greene, out of Iowa, who was a total beast in college and could be an immediate factor. Overall, this draft was mortgaged for basically three players (Sheppard, Sanchez, and Greene), but in a few years we could be looking back at this as the draft that molded the future of the Jets. Then again, we could also be saying, what the hell were they thinking?

State of the Team

Quarterbacks

The starting job will be decided by the off-season preparation and play of Sanchez and Kellen Clemens. I think Clemens may have a slight edge to start Week One, but I would be surprised if Sanchez is not the starter by the midpoint of the season. Regardless who plays, neither guy is a bona fide Fantasy starter this year, so don’t be surprised if the Jets are weak offensively this year. Sanchez has promise down the line, so don’t be scared to snag him up if you are in a keeper league; just don’t expect him to pull a Matt Ryan this season. I just think Sanchez has the head and moxy to be a star quarterback in this league and New York is the perfect market for a guy like him.

Running Backs

The starter is 2008 AFC rushing leader Jones, but he will be pushed by newcomer Greene, who will look to steal some carries and could be a very good late-round value pick. Also in the mix is return specialist Leon Washington, who has great speed and will get some time as a third-down back.

Wide Receivers

The main wideout will once again be Jerricho Cotchery, who slipped a little last year after averaging over 80 catches and 1,000 yards the previous two seasons. The fact that Laveranues Coles left via free agency will allow defenses to focus more closely on Cotchery, and that may be bad news if you’re hoping for a recovery from him. Cotchery will be joined by David Clowney, a hard worker who looks ready to take a big step forward this year, and quarterback turned wide receiver Brad Smith, who enjoyed a big spring and could also be ready to break out. As things stand now, however, Cotchery is the only Fantasy starter on this squad, unless you are in the deepest of leagues.

Tight Ends

I think Dustin Keller is going to be a great tight end in this league and it would behoove Sanchez to buddy up with the second-year starter. Also on the squad is Bubba Franks, who the Jets re-signed as a free agent, but he is nothing more than a veteran that provides depth. Keller is a top 10 tight end, and is a nice player to have in a dynasty league.

Defense/Special Teams

The Jets gave up their share of points last year (finishing in the middle of the pack in points per game allowed), but they should have a renewed emphasis on defense with the arrival of new head coach Ryan and his stud linebacker Scott. I expect a turnaround in this unit, making them a top 15 defense which can be useful in Fantasy this year.

We continue the 2009 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit today with another team preview. We’re going to try to shoot out all these team previews and then start releasing the kit’s other goodies (cheat sheets, sleepers/busts lists, etc.). While you wait around for Roger Goodell to give Donte’ Stallworth another rap on the knuckles, why not read up on the Pats, who are seeking to return to the top of the NFL?

What Went Right

The 2008 New England Patriots finished the season with an 11-5 record, but failed to make the playoffs in the brutally competitive AFC. While some may deem last season a failure, Pats’ fans enjoyed the emergence of Matt Cassel as a legit NFL quarterback. The team played well, especially down the stretch, when they won five of their last six games. Fantasy-wise, in addition to Cassel putting up decent numbers, wide receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss had solid years and their defense had some good games. Sadly for New Englanders, the Miami Dolphins won the division on a tiebreaker, and Cassel & Co. joined the injured Tom Brady at home for the playoffs.

What Went Wrong

There was pretty much only one thing that went wrong for the Patriots in 2008, and that was the injury to all-world quarterback Brady. While the injured knee forced him into an unenviable life of frolicking around New York with girlfriend Gisele Bundchen, the Patriots were forced to move on with their backup, Cassel. Patriot fans were also alarmed at reports of botched surgeries and infections that could force Brady to miss the 2009 season as well. All of that was put to rest when he started working out and now seems ready for the fall. In addition to Brady-related problems, Coach Bill Belichick constantly left Fantasy owners wondering which running back would get action and carries in any given game. The result was a backfield of mediocre fill-in type Fantasy running backs.

Off-season Outlook

The offseason for the Patriots was fairy active this year as Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels left to take the head coaching job for the Broncos. He took with him wide receiver Jabar Gaffney and running back LaMont Jordan, but they were never huge factors in New England. This spring, Ellis Hobbs, Mike Vrabel, and Cassel were all sent packing for draft picks. Although the Patriots lost a fair amount, they have a plethora of new arrivals which include RB Fred Taylor, WR Joey Galloway, WR Greg Lewis, TE Alex Smith and CB Shawn Springs.  Taylor figures to share time with the rest of the horses in the stable. Galloway is slotted to be the third wide receiver, which could evolve into a nice year with most of the defensive attention being focused on Moss and Welker.

Draft Outlook

While the Patriots forfeited their first-round pick due to spygate, they had picks stockpiled — including four second-round selections this year. They took Oregon S Patrick Chung, Boston College DT Ron Brace, Conneticut CB Darius Butler and Houston OT Sebastian Vollmer. The first three selections addressed an aging defensive unit that could use some fresh legs. Third round pick, North Carolina WR Brandon Tate, will give Brady another weapon to play with. All in all, this marked another solid draft in which the Pats also picked up some assets for next year.

State of the Team

Quarterbacks

All you need to know is that Brady is back and ready to resume his Hall of Fame career. So far he has looked great, but the Patriots could be in big trouble if the golden boy is hurt again this year as his backups are Matt Gutierrez and Kevin O’Connell. If all goes well, I would expect Brady to finish with over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdown passes. As far as quarterbacks go, it is safe to rank him in your top three going into draft day.

Running Backs

For those of you who had Laurence Maroney last year, you know the frustration associated with owning any running back on this squad. The Patriots like to mix it up and spread their carries around, making it impossible to predict who will get the bulk of the work. This year, New England introduces Taylor into the fold, and he seems to be the likely candidate to be the official starter. Carries will be divided between Sammy Morris, Taylor, and Maroney, with Kevin Faulk seeing a lot of work on third downs. None of the Pat backs should be ranked in the top 35 Fantasy running backs, so unless you are in a deep league, you will not be looking at any of these names in the early rounds.

Receivers

While it is difficult to project running backs on the Pats, it is always evident who their aerial targets will be. Galloway joins Moss and Welker to create a formidable group of experienced wide receivers. I would look for Moss and Welker to have amazing years with Galloway putting up some big games as well. I think Moss is a top five wide out and Welker is in the top 15. Galloway should be worth a late-round flier, especially in deep leagues.

Tight Ends

While the tight ends are not as impressive as the wide outs on this squad, they are serviceable. Benjamin Watson figures to get the most playing time followed by a group that includes Smith, Chris Baker (the touchdown maker!), and David Thomas (the muffin maker?).

Defense/Special Teams

The New England Patriots finished in the lower third of the Fantasy defensive rankings last year, much to the surprise of many. The unit only generated one defensive touchdown. This year’s unit will be younger and possibly more talented, but the Pat offense scores so fast sometimes that the defensive is always on the field. Although I love Jerod Mayo, Adalius Thomas, and Richard Seymour as players, I would not consider drafting the Patriots until at least half the defenses are off the board.

Last month, we released our first pass at a mock of the 2009 NBA Draft. Here is our second attempt at projecting the draft, which will take place on June 25.

1. Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma – All indications still point towards the Clippers taking Griffin with the first pick. It is pretty much a lock, unless they get stupid and try to trade the pick. Griffin is far and away the biggest talent in the draft and he should have an impact next year. Look for the Clip Show to try to trade Zach Randolph or Chris Kaman to anyone unfortunate enough to take on their bad contracts. If Randolph stays, it may hamper Griffin’s rookie campaign numbers, but I still think he could average 14 points and eight rebounds a game. If you are in a keeper league, there is even more incentive to take the former Sooner, as he will continue to get better and should be a dominant player by year three.

2. Memphis Grizzlies: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn – The Grizzlies seem to be actively shopping this pick, but I really do not see them moving it. Ricky Rubio has spurned Memphis, mostly because of its dealings with Juan Carlos Navarro and Pau Gasol, so I don’t see the Grizz considering the Spainard. If the Grizzlies keep the pick, I think they will take Thabeet to solidify their back line of defense. Although Thabeet is not offensively sound, he will be an impact player defensively from Day One. He should be considered next year in Fantasy leagues solely due to his shot blocking ability. Other possibilities: Rubio.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder: Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain – I think general manager Sam Presti sees Rubio as the second best prospect in the draft, which also makes him the second best asset. I think the Thunder drafts Rubio with intentions of trading him to the highest bidder. This could totally blow up the rest of the draft if a trade happens on draft day. Regardless of the scenario, I think Rubio will be selected third, but I have no clue who he plays for next year. Also, if OKC can not find a deal that suits the team, oh well, it has Rubio! Other possibilities: James Harden, Stephen Curry, Hasheem Thabeet.

4. Sacramento Kings: Jonny Flynn, PG, Syracuse – It is possible that Rubio slips to the Kings at this spot, and it would be a no brainer to go with him because they desperately need a point guard after inconsistent Beno Udrih pretty much proved he’s not a legitimate NBA starting PG. With Rubio off the board in this mock draft, I think the Kings reach out and take Flynn of Syracuse, even though he is projected later in the lottery by most. This lightning-fast guard really impressed the Kings’ brass during workouts as he provided a great deal of energy and leadership. Flynn could be a Fantasy stud right away next year if he ends up in Sactown. Other possibilities: Rubio, Jrue Holiday.

5. Washington Wizards: James Harden, SG, Arizona State – All indications point to the Wizards trying to move this pick for a veteran that will give them a chance to compete. It is possible that the Celtics could trade Ray Allen for this pick and some salaries. Under that scenario, the Celts would take Tyreke Evans, whom Danny Ainge loves. If the Wizards keep the pick, they will be deciding between Harden, Evans, and Jordan Hill, with the former two being the lead candidates. Ultimately, I think it would be foolish to trade for Allen and his one year left and give up the chance at a young stud. I say the Wizards keep the pick and take Harden out of Arizona State. Other possibilities: Curry, Hill, Evans.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Tyreke Evans, SG, Memphis – I could easily see the T-wolves taking Curry in this spot, but Evans projects as a more dominant pro, and fits better on their roster. If Tyreke lands here, I think he has a good chance to start next year in the backcourt with Randy Foye, which would give the Wolves some decent guards to pair with Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. Evans should be an immediate impact player in Fantasy to some extent. Other possibilities: Curry.

7. Golden State Warriors: Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona – I have always thought Hill should be the pick for the Warriors at No. 7. While the Warriors have a number of lanky prospects, Anthony Randolph and Brandan Wright are not the same type of players that Hill could become. When Andris Biedrins was injured last year, the lack of frontcourt depth was very evident. Hill is also a big man that can run with the Warriors’ up-tempo offense and pound the boards. Other possibilities: Flynn, Brandon Jennings, Curry, Terrence Williams.

8. New York Knicks: Stephen Curry, PG/SG, Davidson – I think the only real threat to take Curry before this spot is the Timberwolves at No. 6. If Curry does land in New York, the fans will be ecstatic. I think it would be hilarious to see what would happen if Curry is available and New York passes on him, especially considering he’s been rumoured to be earmarked for MSG for weeks. In Mike D’Antoni’s offense, Curry becomes an immediate Fantasy asset because of his long-range shooting ability. Other possibilities: Hill, Flynn, Jennings.

9. Toronto Raptors: DeMarr DeRozan, SF, USC – With Anthony Parker and Shawn Marion headed for free agency, the Raptors need an athletic wingman to fill the void. DeRozan really came on at the end of last year and showed some of the promise he had coming out of high school. I am not sure how the move across the border would affect a guy who is always been in the Southern California area. DeRozan is fairly raw still, but should get a good amount of playing time next year. Other possibilities: Holiday, Gerald Henderson, Earl Clark.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Jrue Holiday, PG, UCLA – Holiday could go as high as No. 4 in the draft, with his worst case scenario falling here to the Bucks. Head coach Scott Skiles will love the defense and length that Holiday can bring to the table. With Ramon Sessions likely leaving via free agency, Holiday is sure to get his fill of playing time. Other possibilities: Flynn, Jeff Teague, Jennings, Clark.

11. New Jersey Nets: Tyler Hansbrough, PF, North Carolina – Most people have Hansbrough going later in the first round, but I think the Nets want and need a guy like this Tar Heel legend. During workouts he showed that he was taller and more athletic than most gave him credit for. Hansbrough also showed off an improved jumper that could allow him to have a long NBA career. I think this is a solid choice for the Nets and he could contribute right away. Other possibilities: Williams, James Johnson, DeJuan Blair.

12. Charlotte Bobcats: Gerald Henderson, SG, Duke – The fact that he’s a solid defender, a capable shooter, and a fan favourite all come into play here. The Bobcats would appease many of their loyal fans by taking the Duke product with the 12th overall pick. Other possibilities: Clark, B.J. Mullens.

13. Indiana Pacers: Brandon Jennings, PG, Italy – Jennings is a lightning-quick point guard who I think hit a bit of culture shock in the Euroleague. Teams over there do not really play on potential as much as what you can do in their system. The Pacers could take a risk on this point guard with the 13th pick and hope he becomes a star. Other possibilities: Eric Maynor, Teague, Austin Daye, Blair.

14. Phoenix Suns: Austin Daye, SF, Gonzaga – Daye decided to stay in the draft this year which makes me think he knows that he will go in the top 20. He said in the past that he would like to stay in the top 20 or go back to school. Daye seems like the type of player the Suns would take, even though he is a string bean and gets pushed around, even at Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. Other possibilities: Clark, Johnson.

15. Detroit Pistons: Earl Clark, SF, Louisville – The Pistons need an overhaul and this could be started with taking this small forward from Louisville. Clark is a versatile player that could help infuse the Piston lineup with some exciting young talent. Other possibilities: Johnson.

16. Chicago Bulls: B.J. Mullens, C, Ohio State – The Bulls could definitely use a 7-footer that is a paint filler and post presence. I think if Mullens is still on the board at 16, he will be wearing red next season. I am not a huge fan of Mullens as I think he will be a total stiff in the NBA and I really do not think he is much of a Fantasy sleeper next year. He is also rumored to be going to the Knicks at No. 8, which I think would be crazy. Other possibilities: Blair, Hansbrough (if the Nets don’t take him).

17. Philadelphia 76ers: Eric Maynor, PG, VCU – I think this is a steal if Maynor slips to 17. He can contribute right away and even make some Fantasy noise. Other possibilities: Teague.

18. Golden State Warriors (Projected trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves): Terrence Williams, SG/SF, Louisville – The projected trade sends Wright and 2010 lottery protected first round pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the 18th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. The Warriors really like Williams and the Timberwolves already have three first round picks this year and would like to gain assets for the future.

19. Atlanta Hawks: Jeff Teague, PG, Wake Forest – If the Hawks trade Josh Smith and use the cap space to sign Mike Bibby, they may go in a different direction. As of now, it looks like Smith will still be in Atlanta come draft day and there is no guarantee that Bibby will re-sign. Look for the Hawks to take Teague if he is still available. He is very talented and could go as high as 10 to the Bucks, but this draft is pretty heavy at the point guard position.

20. Utah Jazz: DeJuan Blair, PF, Pittsburgh – Worries about Blair’s knee may send his draft stock downward. He dominated the Big East, but the NBA is a different animal. I really do not see him evolving into an Elton Brand type. I think his best case scenario would be a Paul Millsap type of player, which the Jazz may need to replace this coming season.

21. New Orleans Hornets: James Johnson, PF, Wake Forest – Johnson is a super athletic big man would can play all over the court. He was quite inconsistent last year and I think he lacks the intangibles and overall basketball IQ to be a lottery pick. I do not see him contributing much next year from a Fantasy perspective, but he could earn court time if he outworks some guys in front of him.

22. Dallas Mavericks: Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina – If Lawson really falls into the 20’s I think he will be disappointed. After his insane March performances, he was probably thinking he would go in the lottery. The Mavs need a point guard to replace Jason Kidd, and Lawson may be the best on the board at this point.

23. Sacramento Kings: Chase Budinger, SG/SF, Arizona – Budinger could fall anywhere from 15 to 30 in my eyes and rightfully so. He is a very athletic scorer who can thrive if placed in the right system. A year or two ago, he looked like a top 10 pick on potential alone, but he never really took the bull by the horns and relished the go-to guy role at Arizona.

24. Portland Trailblazers: Darren Collison, PG, UCLA – The Blazers already have Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez, and Jerryd Bayless, but none of these guards is known as a lock down defended. I think Portland will try to move Rodriguez, opening up some playing time for a more defensive-minded guard in Collison.

25. Oklahoma City Thunder: Omri Casspi, SF, Israel – Think of a skinnier version of Andres Nocioni who could give the Thunder some needed toughness on a rather finesse team.

26. Chicago Bulls: Toney Douglas, PG, Florida State – Douglas is a gamer who I think can make it in the league. The Bulls would also have another scorer who could replace Ben Gordon if he leaves via free agency. If you have seen Douglas play at Florida State, I am sure you would think he is a first round talent.

27. Memphis Grizzlies: Sam Young, SF, Pittsburgh – A crafty lefty scorer can certainly be a nice addition to Memphis’ stable of young talent. The future is bright in Memphis and Young could be a part of something special in two years. I like his ability to create shots off the dribble, something that is needed to be a consistent NBA scorer.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves:  Patrick Mills, PG, St. Mary’s – I have the T-Wolves taking Evans with the sixth pick and trading the 18th pick to the Warriors. Here, with their third first round pick, I think they may take a shot with Mills. The speedy guard could give the Wolves some backcourt depth, but I do not think Mills will be a Fantasy factor over the next few years.

29. Los Angeles Lakers: Dajuan Summers, SF, Georgetown – Summers is a good passer with a decent overall skill set who should be able to produce in the Triangle Offense. He should be ignored for Fantasy purposes next year, though, as the Lakers have their skilled guys locked up. If Lamar Odom does leave via free agency, Summers is a candidate to be groomed to fill that spot in the lineup.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers: Derrick Brown, SF, Xavier – Brown is a definite upgrade to aging Wally Szczerbiak and he would help add depth the Cavalier bench. Brown was a great scorer and defender for what seems a decade at Xavier. Cleveland sorely needs someone like him and he could actually be a key for them to win a championship. This would be a great pick and a great spot for Brown to start his career.

Look for the final edition of our Mock Draft next week right before the NBA Draft on June 25.

Here’s our first take at projecting the 2009 NBA Draft.

1. Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma – The consensus No. 1 overall pick in this draft will undoubtedly go to the Clip Show. Fantasy-wise, this is not a great landing point for Griffin to put up stud numbers right away. Zach Randolph is under contract for another two years and he is virtually immovable, plus the Clips also have Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby in the frontcourt. Griffin is a fairly polished prospect and will definitely still see a lot of action next year and can still compete for Rookie of the Year. If you are in a keeper league, the former Boomer Sooner is fairly close to a can’t-miss, and he will help your squad for the next decade.

2. Memphis Grizzlies: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn – The Grizzlies are one of the few teams that may pass on Ricky Rubio at the second pick. Mike Conley showed great improvement last year and he teams up nicely with O.J. Mayo in the backcourt. Thabeet would give Memphis a nice inside presence rotated with Marc Gasol, who is more of a defensive liability. As Thabeet continues to become more offensively potent, he could round into a solid centre. The Grizzlies’ owner has already declared he prefers the big man, and Michael Heisley usually calls the big shots with this franchise.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder: James Harden, SG, Arizona State – This is a pretty good scenario for the Thunder. It gets to pick between Ricky Rubio and a couple of other highly touted prospects. I think OKC will pull a bit of a shocker and take Harden. The Thunder seems content with the development of Russell Westbrook and Harden gives them another silky smooth scorer to go with Kevin Durant. Rubio will get high consideration, but I think he is much farther away from contributing than many people think. Harden deserves Fantasy consideration immediately, especially in deep leagues.

4. Sacramento Kings: Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain – The Maloofs would go gazooks if this scenario played out. They really need a point guard for the future and it would take them no less than 10 seconds to submit the pick for Rubio. He would join a rather young team that likes to run and he would be allowed to play right away. The Kings are building for three years from now and Rubio would be the cherry on the sundae. He could put up big assist numbers right away, but he will not fill up the scoring column.

5. Washington Wizards: Stephen Curry, PG/SG, Davidson – Yes. I just went there. I could easily see the Wizards taking Jordan Hill here, but I am not sold on the big man from Arizona. Harden, another option, is a silky smooth lefty who is a NBA ready scorer, but he may be off the board. Although the Wizards have been grooming Nick Young at SG, I think Curry is a lights out prospect that will at the very least be a gunner off the bench. Washington’s outside game struggled at times last year and Curry would make this a much more dynamic team. Wherever Curry goes, he will be a Fantasy commodity in roto leagues due to his long range shooting.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves: DeMar DeRozan, SF, USC – With Corey Brewer not really panning out for the Wolves, look for them to go with the swingman out of USC. DeRozan really came on late last year and would be a good fit on this roster. Randy Foye will enjoy having an athletic wingman that can contribute in multiple facets of the game.

7. Golden State Warriors: Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona – Last year, the front line of the Warriors seemed short handed whenever Andris Biedrins was out of the lineup. Hill slips a little to No. 7 in my mock, as many have him as the fourth-best prospect. He is athletic enough to keep up with the pace of Nellie ball and he gives them some active size to pair Biedrins.

8. New York Knicks: Brandon Jennings, PG, Italy – Jennings is a lightning quick point guard who I think hit a bit of culture shock in the Euroleague. Teams over there do not really play on potential as much as what you can do in their system. Jennings would have free range of the court in New York and could develop into the superstar that he was destined to be. New York, in my opinion, would be the best place for Jennings to land. Consider him a Fantasy sleeper for next year, as if he gets court time he could put up much better numbers in the NBA than he did in Italy last year.

9. Toronto Raptors: Tyreke Evans, SG, Memphis – Evans is an explosive scorer who would certainly be an upgrade over the likes of Anthony Parker.  Jose Calderon could also get some time off from bringing the ball up, keeping the Raptor rotation fresh. I really like Evans to come in a make an immediate impact in Raptorland if selected here.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Jrue Holliday, PG, UCLA – Holliday would give the Bucks a stud PG which they sorely need. Luke Ridnour’s contract is up after next season and Ramon Sessions is a free agent. Holliday could step in and be an immediate contributor. Also, he is a good defender which will certainly help his case with head coach Scott Skiles.

11. New Jersey Nets: DeJuan Blair, PF, Pittsburgh – I think this could be the biggest reach in the draft. In my opinion, Blair is one of those college studs that will not translate to the NBA. How many moose-like undersized power forwards have worked out in the NBA? I am pretty sure Blair is not the next Charles Barkley.

12. Charlotte Bobcats: Gerald Henderson, SG, Duke – The fact that he’ s a solid defender, a capable shooter, and a fan favourite all come into play here. The Bobcats would appease many of their loyal fans by taking the Duke product with the 12th overall pick.

13. Indiana Pacers: Jonny Flynn, PG, Syracuse – The Pacers would be quite happy to see Flynn on the board here at 13. I think they’ll pick a point guard no matter what as there are many to choose from in this draft. Jeff Teague, Patrick Mills, Eric Maynor, and Ty Lawson are also possibilities. Flynn is lightning quick and will love feeding the ball to Danny Granger.

14. Phoenix Suns: Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina – Steve Nash is on his basketball deathbed. Well not quite, but enough so that the Suns need to prep the future by taking a legit point guard in the draft. Lawson gets the slight edge over Flynn and Maynor largely due to his post-season performance this year. I think he has proven what kind of leader and floor general he can be and the Suns’ management will be intrigued enough to select the Tar Heel guard.

15. Detroit Pistons: James Johnson, PF, Wake Forest – Johnson is a super athletic big man would can play all over the court. He was quite inconsistent last year and I think he lacks the intangibles and overall basketball IQ to be a lottery pick. I do not see him contributing much next year from a Fantasy perspective, but he could earn court time if he outworks some guys in front of him.

16. Chicago Bulls: Earl Clark, SF, Louisville – Talent-wise, Clark is a lottery pick, but you never really know what you are going to get. The Bulls might fall in love with him during the pre-draft leadup only to see him get complacent after he has a contract locked up.

17. Philadelphia 76ers: Eric Maynor, PG, VCU – I think this is a steal if Maynor slips to 17. He can contribute right away and even make some Fantasy noise.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves: B.J. Mullens, C, Ohio State – The Wolves could use another big man to complement Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. I think Mullens is somewhat of an overrated stiff, but being seven feet tall usually gets you drafted high. I would not touch him in a Fantasy league.

19. Atlanta Hawks: Patrick Mills, PG, St. Mary’s – Mills may opt to return for his senior season, but there is a surely a spot in the late first round for him if he stays.  Mike Bibby may be leaving Atlanta as a free agent and the Hawks do not seem sold on Acie Law taking over the reins. Mills is very quick and skilled and could become a nice Fantasy sleeper for next season.

20. Utah Jazz: Tyler Hansbrough, PF, North Carolina – With the possibility of Paul Millsap leaving via free agency, Hansbrough could immediately fill in the void. Somewhat undersized and relying on his motor, this would be a storybook fit. I think Jazz fans would go nuts for Psycho T.

21. New Orleans Hornets: Chase Budinger, SG/SF, Arizona – Budinger could fall anywhere from 15 to 25 in my eyes and rightfully so. He is a very athletic scorer who can thrive if placed in the right system. A year or two ago, he looked like a top 10 pick on potential alone, but he never really took the bull by the horns and relished the go-to guy role at Arizona. Budinger could take over the role that Peja Stojakovic currently fills if he can prove he can hit the NBA three ball. Peja has one more year left on his huge contract.

22. Dallas Mavericks: Jeff Teague, PG, Wake Forest – There is no secret that the Mavericks need to bring in a point guard to develop under Jason Kidd. Teague is certainly talented, but I am not sure he will have much value next year if he goes in this spot.

23. Sacramento Kings: Terrence Williams, SG/SF, Louisville – Williams has all the talent in the world, but you never know what you are going to get. He reminds me somewhat of cross between Donte Greene and Corey Maggette. This is a high-reward, low-risk pick here, so Williams is definitely worth the price. My prediction is that he turns into a headache wherever he goes and he fades into oblivion within five years. I would not touch him in a Fantasy league with somebody else’s 10-foot pole.

24. Portland Trailblazers: Darren Collison, PG, UCLA – Collison is a much different point guard than Jerryd Bayless and Steve Blake. Collison is more of a defensive minded, quick penetrating guard that could give the Blazers an added dimension they desperately need. I love Blake, but can he really play lock down defense?

25. Oklahoma City Thunder: Gani Lawal, PF, Georgia Tech – There is a good chance Lawal could return to school, but he is most likely a late first rounder if he stays. The Thunder could use his ability to rebound, although he is at least a year or two away from being an offensive threat in the NBA.

26. Chicago Bulls: Toney Douglas, PG, Florida State – Douglas is a gamer who I think can make it in the league. The Bulls would also have another scorer who could replace Ben Gordon if he leaves via free agency. If you have seen Douglas play at Florida State, I am sure you would think he is a first round talent.

27. Memphis Grizzlies: Sam Young, SF, Pittsburgh – A crafty lefty scorer can certainly be a nice addition to Memphis’ stable of young talent. The future is bright in Memphis and Young could be a part of something special in two years. I like his ability to create shots off the dribble, something that is needed to be a consistent NBA scorer.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves:  Austin Daye, SF, Gonzaga – Daye is a long and skillful big man who could be special if he puts it all together. He was very inconsistent in college, but his game may be more suited to the NBA. He is someone who could be a solid pro in three-t0o-four years, but don’t touch him next year.

29. Los Angeles Lakers: Dajuan Summers, SF, Los Angeles Lakers – Summers is a good passer with a decent overall skill set who should be able to produce in the Triangle Offense. He should be ignored for Fantasy purposes next year, though, as the Lakers have their skilled guys locked up.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers: Derrick Brown, SF, Xavier – A definite upgrade to aging Wally Szczerbiak would help add depth the Cavalier bench. Brown was a great scorer and defender for what seems a decade at Xavier. Cleveland sorely misses someone like Brown and he could actually be a key for them to win a championship. This would be a great pick and a great spot for Brown to start his career.

Look for Take Two of the NBA Draft in a couple weeks.

We are about to enter the home stretch of the NBA regular season, which means that some teams may start changing their philosophies about how they are approaching the balance of games. Teams on the outside of the playoff hunt will start to play their younger players more, and teams fighting for a playoff spot may shorten their rotation or lean heavier on their stars. This could result in a slight shift of production around the league.

Let’s take a look at some hidden studs for the last two weeks. These are some guys who are over performing, or are just getting a chance to produce.

1. Troy Murphy, F, Indiana Pacers: Over the last 14 days, Murphy is averaging 17 points, 12.5 boards, 0.83 blocks, two assists, and a steal each game. He has also drained 20 three balls in this six-game stretch. These numbers put him in the top 10 at all positions in fantasy production the last two weeks. As good as Murphy was during his double-double years as a Warrior, he’s having by far the finest season of his career, so kudos to those of you who snagged him with a mid-round pick.

2. Larry Hughes, G, New York Knicks: Over the last seven games, Hughes has averaged over 19 points, nearly 3.5 rebounds and over three assists, while dropping in 15 money balls. Hughes, who is getting about 38 minutes of run over this stretch, is finally getting consistent playing time, proving he can play in Mike D’Antoni’s system. If Hughes hasn’t been plucked off your waiver wire, you better do so pronto.

3. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies: The younger Gasol is having a great rookie year and he will be one to really watch over the next two seasons or so. I think eventually he could be an All-Star centre. He has the pedigree, size, and skills to do so. Over the last eight games, he has averaged 16 points and nine rebounds to go with his 3.5 assists and 1.88 blocks a game. Gasol is a solid free throw shooter (82 per cent over his last eight games) and his field goal percentage is nearly 60 over this stretch.

4. Mario Chalmers, G, Miami Heat: After hitting a little bit of a rookie wall a few weeks back, Chalmers is back to filling the statbook. Over his last seven contests, he is averaging 12.5 points, 4.5 assists, three rebounds, and over two steals a game. He can also hit the three (and in fact, is launching up a hell of a lot of them lately), which is just an added bonus. Not many people would consider the former Jayhawk a top 30 fantasy player, but he has been one over the last two weeks.

5. Jason Terry, G, Dallas Mavericks: I had doubts about Jet making such a successful comeback from a hand injury. He has picked up right where he left off, which is the reason he’s on this list. Over his last seven games, Terry is averaging over 22 points a game while canning 20 3-pointer. If you throw in a couple assists, steals, and boards a game, you have yourself a nice asset — an asset I personally traded away for Mike Conley after the injury to Terry. I thought he wouldn’t be back until late March, but he returned faster than expected. For those who held on to him, it is paying dividends now.

Some quick news and notes:

• Deron Williams, G, Utah Jazz: He has a bruised knee and is questionable for a few games.
• Devin Harris, G, New Jersey Nets: He has a sprained shoulder and may be out a few games. Keyon Dooling will absorb most of those minutes, making him a nice short-term pickup.
• Stephen Jackson, G, Golden State Warriors: Will miss the St. Patty’s day game due to suspension. That is what 18 technical fouls will get you!

The Rams recently released WR Torry Holt, a move that opens the door for upcoming sophomore WR Donnie Avery to be the main man in St. Louis. Avery’s fantasy value goes up now, as he should be able to exceed a productive rookie campaign. Look for the Rams to take an offensive tackle early in the upcoming NFL Draft to replace long time Pro Bowl LT Orlando Pace to rebuild the offensive line. As far as Holt goes, it looks like Tennessee is interested, which I think would be a great fit for both sides.

The San Diego Chargers have re-signed RB LaDainain Tomlinson. I think the Chargers realized that they can not just count on Darren Sproles as an every down back. The combination of a healthy Tomlinson and Sproles sprinkled in is the best way for San Diego to go. Tomlinson had a career low 1,100 yards rushing last year, but he was bothered by nagging injuries. If LT comes into the season healthy, I think 1,500 yards is still reachable. I still view him as a first round fantasy pick.

We are just under six weeks away from the 2009 NFL Draft. I do not think this year’s class will produce as many immediate fantasy studs as normal, but you never know. Here are some guys that could make an impact next year:

• Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia: He has a rocket arm and an NFL body and the Lions are very interested in him at the No. 1 spot. Stafford figures to at the very least get late season action next year. If you are in a keeper league and already have Calvin Johnson, you could be looking at a nice duo for years to come if you grab Stafford.
• Mark Sanchez, QB, USC: I like the 49ers taking a look at Sanchez at the 10th pick, if he drops that far down. He could definitely see the field next year if he does land in San Francisco.
• Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: The former Bulldog RB is a relentless power runner who will be an asset for anyone who drafts him.
• Donald Brown, RB, U Conn: If you have not seen him play, you have been missing one of the secrets of college football. Brown will make you miss with ease and will break away.
• Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: He is shorter and slower than previously thought, but he call still ball. If heathly come start of the season, I think Crabtree will make an immediate impact.
• Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: This guy is a perfect candidate for a Raider draft pick. Al Davis loves speed and Maclin has plenty. He can also return kicks and punts.

The 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit continues as we release more of the Top 10 Lists Fantasy Owners Always Wanted But Were Afraid to Ask For. Today, Alex has his choices for 2009 flops.

They were huge in 2008, but these are the players who won’t come close to repeating their performances  of last season.

1. Edison Volquez, SP, Cincinnati Reds – There is no way in hell that Volquez repeats his 2008 season in which he won 17 games, had a 3.21 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He pitched nearly 200 innings and went over 110 pitches over a dozen times. Dusty Baker wore him out last year and now he will likely suffer the fate of so many before him. I think an ERA around 4.00 with 12 to 15 wins is more likely this go around. Then again, an injury to his overworked arm is possible and if that happens, Volquez could put up something much, much lower.

2. Joe Saunders, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in California near the Pacific – Bazooka Joe posted 17 wins and a 3.41 ERA in 2008 despite getting hit all year. He does not get many strikeouts and hitters are always putting the ball in play. I will be surprised if his ERA is lower than 4.50, as the baseball gods create balance in the universe. I would avoid him this year because you will be overpaying for an average pitcher. Sorry Joe, it’s a No-Go!

3. Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves – I know a lot of Braves fans will get all fussy for me putty Larry Jones on this list, but is there any way he can replicate last year? No, he can’t. Jones ended up posting a batting average of .364 after he was chasing .400 for a couple of months. Sure, he probably will bat over .300 and still hit 20 home runs, but he will not be nearly the effective fantasy contributor as he was last year. Besides, have you noticed how chunky he’s looking at the WBC?

4. Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland Indians – This southpaw had an amazing season last year, and while he could be good again in 2009, I do not see him approaching those kind of numbers. In 2008, he posted 22 wins to go with his 2.54 ERA. That is absurd for an Indian pitcher last year! I think a 3.50 ERA to go with 14 to 18 wins is more likely this year, so do not overpay for him. I only see a small chance at him coming close to last year and becoming a consistent fantasy pitcher. I do think he is much better than Volquez and Saunders, but all three of them will fall back to the pack.

5. Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs – I think we are seeing a theme with pitchers, but it is true, we see this every season. There are a handful of pitchers that fall flat on their face or jump back to reality after a superb season. Dempster, after leaving the bullpen for a starting gig, posted 17 wins and a 2.96 ERA to go with a decent 1.21 WHIP. Here we have another candidate to drop in every category, but I think his drop will be less severe than the previously mentioned pitchers. The Cub offense can score runs and I still think a line resembling 15 wins, a 3.50 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP is reasonable for Dempster.

6. Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis Cardinals – At 29 years old, Ludwick finally had a breakout year, slugging 37 home runs and driving in 113 runs to go with a stellar .299 batting average. If you take Ludwick this year, remember you will be overpaying for a commodity that has not proven himself on a consistent basis. One good year does not ensure results for the next season. I would expect Ludwick’s home run total to drop back to the high 20s and he may not even reach 100 RBI. I would avoid him this year, as his stock is too high.

7. Armando Galarraga, SP, Detroit Tigers – Armando had a great rookie season last year, racking up 12 wins with a 3.73 ERA and a nice 1.13 WHIP. For me, he does not really pass the eye test. Galarraga just does not look as good as his numbers last year. He gives up a lot of long fly balls and his strike out rate is below average. I think Galarraga’s ERA balloons into the high 4.00-range this year and he falls into fantasy irrelevancy.

8. Brad Hawpe, OF, Colorado Rockies – Hawpe has been a favourite of mine the last few years as I have used him multiple times to fill in for injuries and such. With that said, I think the loss of Matt Holliday tremendously diminishes the potential of everyone else left in Colorado to produce. I think the protection Holliday provided to Hawpe gave Hawpe the chance to hit with runners on and in favourable situations. With Holliday hitting dingers in Oakland, Hawpe will feel naked in the Colorado cold. He will have plenty of opportunities to “vent” to his teammates.

9. Jayson Werth, OF, Philadelphia Phillies – Last season, Werth had 24 home runs, 67 RBI and 20 steals, making him a well rounded fantasy presence. This year, even with the chance to start full-time, I think he will take a step back. He constantly has nagging injuries which I think will contribute to him sliding back to the pack. Werth could be a low risk, high reward type of guy, but I think I would avoid him this year. I would expect at least five fewer home runs and steals from the Phillie outfielder this season.

10. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: A pretty sweet BA with 30-30 potential, right? Uh, not so fast. Did you notice that Phillips struggled to a .225 second half with just six homers and four steals? I’d tread cautiously here.

Welcome back to the 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit. Over the next few weeks, we will be rolling out cheat sheets with analysis, essays and the classic Top 10 Lists that Fantasy Owners Always Wanted But Were Afraid to Ask For, a compendium of 10 Top 10 lists that no fantasy owner should be without. We’ll continue that today with Alex’s offering of the Top 10 source of Cheap Steals.

This is all these players do – steal bases. They can’t hit for an extremely high average, have no power, but they will steal bases. Who are they?

We know the Chone Figgins, Willy Taveras and Denard Span types will rack up the steals, but none of them will come cheap. So, we’re going to focus on players who will likely be late-round bargains who can help you win this category.

1. Michael Bourn, OF, Houston Astros – Projected 40-50 steals. If Bourn is to keep his starting gig in Astro-Land, he needs to improve upon his .230 batting average last year. When he does reach first base, he instantly becomes a weapon on the base path. Look for him to improve slightly and get more chances to steal. Last year he stole 42 bases, but expect him to approach 50 this year. If he struggles at the plate for an extended timeframe to open the season, I would not be surprised to see Houston look for other options. Personally, I would rather have Jason Bourne, but that is neither here nor there…

2. Carlos Gomez, OF, Minnesota Twins – Projected 30-35 steals. Gomez finds himself in the same category as Bourn. Improve or lose you job. Gomez is quite the base stealer and could some day easily steal 60, but he has trouble getting on base to do so. Last season, his on base percentage was .289, which is awful. I am sure coaches are working tirelessly on this project to find ways to get him on base. Last year he was sort of a pop out machine, so he did not even get to utilize his speed to leg out base hits. I still think Gomez is a lock for 30 steals, as he has too much talent and there is too much potential to see this guy on the Twinkies bench.

3. Jerry Owens, OF, Chicago White Sox – Projected 20-30 steals. Owens received some playing time last year with the injury of Carlos Quentin. Now, he finds himself battling for the centrefield job with DeWayne Wise. If Owens wins it he could approach 30 steals this year, but he does not do much more than steal. He won’t go yard, and he won’t drive in runs, so be careful with this one trick fantasy pony.

4. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers – Projected 25-35 steals. After Texas moved Michael Young to third base, the starting job at short belongs to the organization’s prized prospect. Andrus had over 50 steals last year at Triple-A, even after missing nearly a month with a broken hand. Elvis has some pop in his bat, but during his rookie campaign, he can only be relied upon for steals and runs. Eventually he could become a 15-20 home run guy, but we will have to see how he adjusts.

5. Coco Crisp, OF, Kansas City Royals – 20-30 steals. Crisp will get a chance to play every day in Kansas City and he is sure to improve on his part-time numbers from last year. He is a veteran who knows how to get on base and move himself to second base. He may be a sleeper this year as he gets more at bats and more chances to shine. Crisp has never been a huge steal guy, but has consistently been in the 20s.

6. Nyger Morgan, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates – Projected 20-35 steals. The Pirates are banking on Morgan to be their opening day lead-off hitter and premier base stealer. He has been inconsistent with the big league chances he has received, but there is no denying his raw speed that could be harnessed to produce big thievery numbers.

7. Juan Pierre, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers – Projected 15-25 steals. The signing of Manny Ramirez crushes the fantasy potential of Pierre this year, unless he gets traded. Without Manny, Pierre projects to steal over 40, but with him only around 20. Pierre is the last man out in a crowded Dodger outfield and there is no way anyone in their right mind would sit Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, or Man-Ram in favour of Pierre in their everyday lineup. Pierre could still be an effective source of steals if you could start him only when you know he will play. Just add another person to the growing list of Manny Ramirez haters.

8. Felipe Lopez, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks – Projected 20 steals. Last season was a bit of a write-off for Lopez, as he failed to even reach double digits in steals. But consider two numbers: (a) 44, as in the number of bases he stole just two seasons ago; and (b) .360, as in his batting average after the break last season. Combine these two and you’ve got a major comeback on your hands, one you can invest in cheaply.

9. Julio Lugo, SS, Boston Red Sox – Projected 20 steals. After missing a huge chunk of 2008 thanks to a quad injury, Lugo has to compete to regain his starting shortstop job. So far, he looks like he’s up to the task, and if he can wrestle the gig back from Jed Lowrie, that projected steal total will look very conservative.

10. Randy Winn, OF, San Francisco Giants – Projected 20 steals. Okay, so he’s not exactly tearing the cover off the ball this spring, but that’s all the more reason he will once again fly slightly below the radar on draft day. But when you look up at season’s end and see another quality line from Winn, you’ll wonder why you constantly ignore him on draft day.

Well, the NBA season is headed down the home stretch and you may find yourself in a situation where you need to attack certain fantasy categories. For those rotisserie basketball guys, you may need to shore up in some cats and catch up in others. Blocks is a category that usually has more teams closer together due to the fact that this is just not as plentiful a commodity as other stats like points, rebounds, and assists. With that said, if you pick up a few regular ball swatters and give them some play, you may find yourself gaining faster in blocks than any other category. Here are a list of guys that may be available in your league that put up solid block numbers.

1. Chris Andersen, F, Denver Nuggets – They call him Birdman for a reason; white boy got hops. Andersen is a mad man on the court who specializes in the art of rejection. For the year, he is averaging 2.33 blocks per contest, but in the past two weeks — much of which has seen Nene out — he has been even better, averaging 3.75 a game. You can almost justify giving someone a starting gig in fantasy if they block nearly four shots a game. That is like having a gunner that drops 30 a night. Birdman also gives you boards and a nice shooting percentage.

2. Ronny Turiaf, C, Golden State Warriors – Turiaf started getting more playing time with Andris Biedrins out, and he produced. So now, even with Biedrins back, Turiaf is getting some clock. He’s averaged over two blocks a game for the year, and is certainly going to contribute with some scoring and boards when he gets his minutes.

3. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers – As long as Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby and Zach Randolph keep missing action for various reasons, Jordan will get you blocks and rebounds. The blocks, 11 in his last three games, is the real key to why he may hold value. Kaman is supposed to come back soon if his MRI goes well, so make sure to pay attention to that if you decide to go after Jordan.

4. Dominic McGuire, F, Washington Wizards – Although McGuire has recently cooled down in the blocks department, he is still averaging about 1.7 a game for the last three weeks. He is a young, energetic guy who the Wizards figure to use a lot as they participate in the Blake Griffin Tankfest of 2009.

5. Anthony Randolph, F, Golden State Warriors – If you have seen the Warriors play over the last two months, I am sure you have seen the raw ability of Randolph. In addition to being in good favour with coach Don Nelson right now (although he all know how that can change at any moment), he has at least one block in every game in March. Randolph can score and rebound in addition to blocking, so he is a prime late run pickup if you have a roster spot to spare.

6. Kendrick Perkins, C, Boston Celtics – With Kevin Garnett still out a few more games, Perkins will receive elevated minutes on the court. Perkins is a double-double threat every time he gets enough clock, and he’s also a capable shot blocker. If he is a free agent, he is a decent option at centre.

7. Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers – Hibbert can not seem to stay on the court more than 20 minutes a game because of his inability to stay out of foul trouble. This big stiff is assured of at least a block a game if he just puts his hands up. I am not in love with him as a fantasy option, but if you are in a deep league or are desperate, it could work.

8. Andray Blatche, F, Washington Wizards – Blatche has all the tools to be a stud, but he is still a bit lackadaisical on the floor. As discussed above, the Wizards will give young guys a lot of minutes as their season fades away into oblivion. Blatche, when he gets PT, is good for over a block a game.

9. Joel Pryzbilla, C, Portland Trail Blazers – As long as Greg Oden stays out, the Vanilla Gorilla will continue to swat shots in the Rose Garden. If you really need a centre, consider Przybilla, as he will rebound and block shots for you.

10. Brandon Bass, F, Dallas Mavericks – If you are so, so desperate, Bass has averaged a block a game in the past three weeks. He could do more if he got a chance, but he only sees 15-20 minutes a game, so it is hard to put up great numbers.

The Buffalo Bills signed WR Terrell Owens to a one year deal on Saturday, a move which seems to be in the best interest of both parties. Owens gives young QB Trent Edwards a threat that will allow for more single coverage looks to Lee Evans. Paired with Marshawn Lynch, the skill positions in Buffalo are all quite talented. Owens should put up good numbers, but this helps Edwards the most. Also, in the past week, the Bills added QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to hold the clipboard.

The other big QB signing of the week came when the Cardinals and Kurt Warner agreed to a two-year deal. I had a feeling that it would work out all along between Warner and the Cards and that the visit to the 49ers was not too serious, just a bargaining chip. Ultimately Warner got paid, but not the amount he wanted. Now it remains to be seen if the Cards will keep WR Anquan Boldin, so the aging QB may lose a top weapon.

There have been a couple of RB signings since free agency started, and all of them have a fairly low fantasy impact. Correll Buckhalter signed a deal with the Broncos, which ensures he will be severely injured at some point next season. Derrick Ward, part of the three-headed running back attack for the Giants, signed a deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he will compete for carries. Former Texas Longhorn standout and misdemeanor extraordinaire Cedric Benson has agreed to stay in Cincinnati, where he will likely be the starting running back. He had a decent year for the Bengals in 2008, so maybe he can build on that.

In WR news, the Seattle Seahawks’ signing of T.J. Houshmanzadeh took the headlines. Nobody has caught more balls the last four years than Houshmanzadeh, and he will look to establish a relationship with Matt Hasselbeck right away. TJH entertained a deal with the Vikings, which I think would have worked out better, but he opted for the northwest as he has ties to the Washington state region, having attended Oregon State. Obviously, if Hasselbeck stays healthy, his stock goes up for next year with a big new weapon at his disposal.

Welcome to another edition of The Hidden Truth. Today, we will take a look at steals. Here we have another fantasy category that is often overlooked, but is just as important as anything else. When you prepped for your draft, did you even look at steals? Would that even sway your decision for picking up a free agent? Do keep in mind that steals are usually a guard-oriented category; you do not get much help from your big guys. For that reason, there is no sense listing every centre in a list of dudes that don’t get steals. Instead, I will take you through three different lists.

10 Studs that Steal

This is the cream of the crop as far as steals go. They are all lock-em-up fantasy starters every week, with the exception of Mario Chalmers, who is a borderline fantasy starter. Consider this group the board of the Thievery Corporation.

1. Chris Paul, G, New Orleans Hornets: – 2.7 steals per game. Besides stealing basketballs from fellow NBAers, he is stealing Right Guard money for those awful commercials. I don’t care about Paul’s pits.

2. Jason Kidd, G, Dallas Mavericks – 2.2 steals per game. J-Kidd may be a fading star in the NBA, but there are several things he still does well, and creating turnovers is one of them.

3. Dwyane Wade, G, Miami Heat – 2.1 steals per game. Flash fills the passing lanes and comes up with over a couple steals per game. [As an aside, RotoRob had a dream the other night that he was Dwyane Wade and was playing a game of halfcourt using a 45 RPM record instead of a basketball. Can someone explain that, please?]

4. Rajon Rondo, G, Boston Celtics – 2.0 steals per game. Rondo has a large wingspan coupled with big hands that allows him to pick the pocket of his opponent with ease. You’ve been “Rondo’ed.”

5. Mario Chalmers, G, Miami Heat – 1.9 steals per game. Chalmers is the lone rookie on this list. He has had a fairly solid freshman campaign beneath the wing of  D-Wade, who has taught him a thing or two about NBA thievery.

6. LeBron James, F, Cleveland Cavaliers – 1.8 steals per game. What stat cat doesn’t King James fill?

7. Gerald Wallace, F, Charlotte Bobcats – 1.8 steals per game. Wallace is an ultra-athletic three man who contributes on both ends of the floor.

8. Baron Davis, G, Los Angeles Clippers – 1.8 steals per game. B Diddy could not shoot a beach ball into the Atlantic Ocean this year, but he still plays some D and comes up with loose balls. It also should be noted that he is stealing millions of dollars from Donald Sterling.

9. Ron Artest, F, Houston Rockets – 1.7 steals per game. Ron-Ron is a premier defender in the NBA who has always ranked high in steals. Even on one strong ankle, he’s still a stud in this cat.

10. Andre Iguodala, G, Philadelphia 76ers – 1.7 steals per game. Iggy helps your fantasy squad in many ways, including pitching in in the steals department.

10 Studs Who Should Get Steals, But Don’t

This is a list of guys that may surprise you with their theft ineptitude. If you have one of these guys, this does not mean you should cut or trade them. Simply realize that maybe you are lacking production in steals because of these guys.

1. Tayshaun Prince, F, Detroit Pistons – 0.5 steals per game. Prince is a lengthy defender that I would think would average at least 1.5 steals a game, but he’s never recorded more than 0.8 SPG in any one season.

2. Michael Beasley, F, Miami Heat – 0.5 steals per game. Beasley was dominant last year in college, but I am not really seeing the production and energy this year. That extends to the defensive end, where he has struggled at times.

3. Aaron Brooks, G, Houston Rockets – 0.6 steals per game. This lighting quick point guard is getting a chance to start now that Rafer Alston has been traded. It is a surprise, however, to see his steals down so far, seeing that he plays so fast and low to the ground.

4. D.J. Augustin, G, Charlotte Bobcats – 0.6 steals per game. This rookie is having a decent year, but has not gotten the steals one may think. His shot is starting to come around and he will improve his defense over the next few seasons, but don’t expect big steal numbers this year.

5. Raja Bell, G, Charlotte Bobcats – 0.6 steals per game. This is may be the most surprising guy on the list for me. Bell is a great defender but does not get steals, unlike Artest.

6. Steve Nash, G, Phoenix Suns – 0.7 steals per game. The aging Canadian national has never averaged over a steal a game during his stint in Phoenix. This may be a surprise to some seeing as how Paul, a guard with similar vision, averages over 2.5.

7. Richard Jefferson, F, Milwaukee Bucks – 0.7 steals per game. I would have thought that Jefferson would be over a steal a game, but apparently not.

8. Jamal Crawford, G, Golden State Warriors – 0.8 steals per game. Crawford is the ultimate gunner. He could give you 20 points, but he only throws in the occasional rebound, assist, steal, or block.

9. Ben Gordon, G, Chicago Bulls – 0.8 steals per game. See Crawford, Jamal.

10. Al Thornton, F, Los Angeles Clippers – 0.8 steals per game. Thornton is an improving player, but does not get very many steals. He does average nearly a block a game, so he does have a defensive presence.

10 Possible Free Agents who get Steals

Here is a list of guys that you can use for some spot starts or to fill in a hole. If you check you league standings and see points to gain in the steals department, it could not hurt to throw in a few spot starts with these guys, if they are available in your league.

1. Trevor Ariza, F, Los Angeles Lakers – 1.62 steals per game. Ariza has active hands and an improving perimeter game.

2. Ronnie Brewer, F, Utah Jazz – 1.63 steals per game. Brewer, who also made an appearance on the top FG percentage list, fills the steals category on a regular basis.

3. Delonte West, G, Cleveland Cavaliers – 1.49 steals per game. Now that Redz is back from injury, he is looking to contribute in points, assists, and steals.

4. Luke Ridnour, G, Milwaukee Bucks – 1.35 steals per game. Ridnour is sharing time with Ramon Sessions, but is a decent stopgap that can give you points, assists, and steals on a pretty regular basis.

5. Derek Fisher, G, Los Angeles Lakers – 1.27 steals per game. The Laker fans love Fisher, and so will you if you give him a spot start and he knocks down a few threes and throws in a few steals.

6. C.J. Watson, G, Golden State Warriors – 1.27 steals per game. It is always dangerous to mix fantasy basketball and Don Nelson. Proceed with caution.

[edit]7. Anthony Parker, G, Toronto Raptors – 1.24 steals per game. Parker is available in most leagues, and he puts up decent numbers, especially in steals. If I were Parker, I would never have time to get any steals because I would be too busy throwing up thinking about how Shelden Williams knocked up my sister. How gross.

8. Jamario Moon, F, Miami Heat – 1.13 steals per game. I think Moon could be a great fit in Miami. He could be worth a long term pick up if he continues to start.

9. Ronald Murray, G, Atlanta Hawks – 1.04 steals per game. Murray has been getting decent run lately. He can score and get you over a steal per game, too!

10. Jordan Farmar, G, Los Angeles Lakers – 1.05 steals per game. I think Farmar will start to get more and more minutes down the stretch. The Lakers will need him in the playoffs, and he provides energy, shooting, and defense on a pretty consistent basis.

With all this said, steals is just another category that you should consider when making any fantasy moves. Most people, I would say, tend to ignore steals, but there are roto points to be gained by those who pay attention to….The Hidden Truth.

As the clock struck midnight Friday morning, NFL free agency has officially begun. Over the next day or so, be prepared for some big news to drop.

Already in the morning hours, the Redskins have made the biggest splash, but it does not have a huge impact on the fantasy scene. The ‘Skins re-signed CB DeAngelo Hall and added DT Albert Haynesworth, inking both to big time deals. They are certain to have an improved defensive line now, but will it be worth the cost?

The Titans, after losing Haynesworth, could be about to lose QB Kerry Collins as well. The veteran QB is demanding more than he is worth, which has propelled negotiations with free agent QB Chris Simms. It looks like the Titans may be content on entering camp with Vince Young and Simms battling for the starting gig rather than overpaying for an aging Collins.

It has been reported that the Ravens have offered LB Ray Lewis $24 million over three years, with $17 million guaranteed. If the Ravens lose Lewis, I think the fantasy value of their defense is in question. Lewis is a leader and a player-coach, not to mention the heartbeat of the team. If the Ravens lose Bart Scott as well, they may lose their status of a top tier defense.

It looks like former Jaguars RB Fred Taylor will join the Patriots. If this goes down, I think is a great fit for both parties. The fantasy value of any New England backs are now limited. This makes me happy that I cut Laurence Maroney in my keeper league. Take that Millen, this is a GM with some foresight!

The Lions are going strong after WR Nate Washington to compliment Calvin Johnson. The former Steelers WR is rumored to be courted by Rams, Titans, Buccaneers, and Vikings. The addition of Washington would add depth to the Lions and give Matthew Stafford another weapon, assuming he is drafted #1 overall.

There is a rumor floating around saying that Marvin Harrison will sign with the Dolphins. That would be an interesting move for both parties, but I think it could work. Harrison has also been linked to his hometown Eagles, but I think there are too many distractions in Philly for Marvin.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh is being linked to the Eagles, Giants and Bears. I think he would be a great fit in Chicago and give them a reliable weapon. Joining in late in the sweepstakes are the Vikings. If the Purple People could make a trade for Sage Rosenfels and sign TJ, they would have quite an offense to go with Adrian Peterson. If I were in the Vikings front office, I would push hard for both of these deals.

The Cardinals have a big offseason to deal with, primarily because of contract talks with WR Anquan Boldin and QB Kurt Warner. Warner has said he will only come back with the Cards, but contract talks are still far apart. Also, it seems now that Boldin is open to the idea of returning if the money is right. My gut says both deals get done and the Cardinals will have their aerial attack in place next year.

The next 24 hours will be interesting as many of the players who had non-official deals in place before the opening of free agency will sign, as others continue to shop around for the big money. Also remember, the draft is only two months away. The NFL never ends!

Welcome to Part Three of the Field Goal percentage series, where we will take a look at the big fellas and their success flushing the rock. Centres, by nature, play down low and usually shoot a much higher percentage than other positions. The catch is that they are usually not gunners, and their field goal attempts are usually lower than the typical high scoring guard or forward. There are some big men that get lots of looks at a high success rate, and those are who we are targeting in this list. Remember, these rankings take into consideration the actual percentage coupled with the field goals attempted per game. Obviously, more field goals attempted by a player will affect this roto category more.

Top 10 Fantasy Ranking, Field Goal Percentage, Centres

1. Nene, Denver Nuggets (61%, 9.1 FGA, 14.7 PPG): The Brazilian big man has found success in the paint this year. Throw it down big fella, throw it down! Many have considered him an excellent sell high candidate for months because of his injury history, but we’re into late-February and he’s still balling.

2. Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix Suns (59.5%, 11 FGA, 17.4 PPG): Just when everyone thought the Diesel was out of fuel, he posts All-Star numbers with an all-world swagger. Other than resting the occasional game earlier in the season, Shaq has been a reliable fantasy presence all year long. As much as he hurts your free throw percentage, he helps your field goal percentage even more.

3. Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic (56.9%, 12.5 FGA, 20.7 PPG): Howard is scary talented and he will only continue to get better. Seeing as how most of his baskets are dunks, he shoots a very high percentage with over a dozen looks a game.

4. Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers (56.3%, 12.4 FGA, 18.3 PPG): The Spaniard has solidified the centre position for the Lakers with Andrew Bynum out for an extended period of time. While Lamar Odom has picked up on the rebounding front, Gasol takes over more touches in the paint, which can only lead to more scoring opportunities. Kobe Bryant understands that Pau needs the ball, and he will let him get his touches.

5. Emeka Okafor, Charlotte Bobcats (57.6%, 9.7 FGA, 14 PPG): Okafor’s great percentage with nearly 10 attempts a game will certain help you in this category, and the fact that he’s a such a great rebounder and shot blocker as well is gravy.

6. Andris Biedrins, Golden State Warriors (56.8%, 9.4 FGA, 13 PPG): Biedrins is an interesting player because it seems like all his baskets are garbage follow dunks. His fantasy owners do not care how he scores, they just love his rebounding and high shooting percentage. You may be surprised to know that he gets almost 10 field goal attempts a game in a guard-oriented Warrior offense.

7. Yao Ming, Houston Rockets (54.5%, 13.1 FGA, 19.9 PPG): The 7′6″ Chinese icon is so good down low, which is evident by his nearly 55 per cent shooting on over 13 attempts a game.

8. Kendrick Perkins, Boston Celtics (59.8%, 5.7 FGA, 8.1 PPG): The Boston big man could get more looks in the upcoming weeks with Kevin Garnett sidelined. Perkins is a high percentage shooter, but does not get very many touches with all of the talent surrounding him. He is a marginal fantasy player, but he will help you in FG percentage in a pinch, while putting up nice rebounding and block totals.

9. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland Cavaliers (50.1%, 11.3 FGA, 13.7 PPG): Big Z is back from injury and doing his thing. He takes a lot of jump shots for a centre, but is deadly accurate.

10. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies (52%, 7.8 FGA, 10.9 PPG): Joining his brother on the top 10 list, baby bro Marc can hold his own down low. The Grizzlies are a young team on the rise and they have a very promising centre. As Gasol develops more on the offensive end, his field goal numbers are sure to only improve.

Low Shooting Percentage, Centres

1. Rasheed Wallace, Detriot Pistons (42.8%, 11.6 FGA, 12.9 PPG): I am not sure how many more years this former Tar Heel has left as a starter. It seems like he is a fading star with a deteriorating jumper. He does take a lot of threes, but his shooting hurts your FG percentage if you start him at centre. I would look to move him if at all possible.

2. Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors (42.4%, 11.5 FGA, 13.8 PPG): Even though Bargnani does not have the typical skill set of a centre, he is nearly seven feet tall. He is a rising star in the league and I am sure his field goal numbers will improve down the stretch, but overall, he’s been so inconsistent this season. The problem is that if you start Bargnani at centre, you are not only getting a low number from him, but you’re also missing out on the high number from most other centres who are instead starting for another fantasy team.

3. Spencer Hawes, Sacramento Kings (44.4%, 9.6 FGA, 10.2 PPG): With Brad Miller shipped to the Bulls, Hawes is the man in the middle for the Kings. He has had an up and down first half of the season, but should improve with time. Hawes has solid post moves that will start to work after repetition and game experience. Consider him a sleeper for nice production down the stretch with an improved field goal percentage.

Check in later in the week to see Part 1 of the second series of The Hidden Truth!

Welcome to the Part Two of the Hidden Truth: FG Percentage, where today we take a look at FG percentage at the forward position. Thanks to some “helpful” advice, these rankings, unlike those for the guards, incorporate field goals percentage while examining how many shots a game the player takes. Shown in each ranking is field goal percentage, field goals attempted per game, and their scoring average per game. This is relevant because a guy who shoots more will have a greater effect on your team percentage.

Remember, FG percentage is no more important than any other Roto category, but it is something to look at while drafting, trading, and picking up free agents.

1. David Lee, New York Knicks (56.4%, 11.7 FGA, 16.4 PPG): Lee plays within five feet of the basket with great success.

2. Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics (52.5%, 13.6 FGA, 16.4 PPG): KG, the heart and soul of the Celtics, is a consistent jump shooter, but can also throw it down in the paint.

3. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs (52.2%, 15.6 FGA, 20.8 PPG): The Big Fundamental is always solid in this category and it’s very nice to see him bounce back after a somewhat down season in 2007-08 in which he shot under 50 per cent.

4. Chris Bosh, Toronto Raptors (49.6%, 15.9 FGA, 22.8 PPG): Bosh is a great fantasy player who helps in many categories, but let’s hope his knee is okay after taking two weeks off.

5. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (49.1%, 20.3 FGA, 28.5 PPG): King James takes over 20 shots a game and he is shooting nearly 50 per cent, which is obviously great news for your Roto squad.

6. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers (48.9%, 15.1 FGA, 17.6 PPG): The former Longhorn standout is having a very nice year. He takes about 15 shots a game and makes them at a 49 per cent clip, providing a nice scoring option.

7. Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz (54.8%, 10.6 FGA, 14 PPG): Millsap has been an excellent stopgap for Carlos Boozer, but his production may be headed downhill with Boozer supposedly very close to returning.

8. Luis Scola, Houston Rockets (52.7%, 9.5 FGA, 12.4 PPG): Scola is never flashy, but he plays hard and gets the job done.

9. Grant Hill, Phoenix Suns (52.5%, 8.3 FGA, 11.1 PPG): If he were still drinking Sprite, maybe he would shoot the ball more. Hill gets limited minutes but shoots at a solid percentage; in fact, he’s on pace for a career best in this category.

10. Kenyon Martin, Denver Nuggets (50.6%, 10.6 FGA, 12.9 PPG): K-Mart has been shopping for easy buckets all year long.

11. Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks (48.6%, 12.6 FGA, 15.7 PPG): The athletic Hawk forward provides an explosive presence on the court. He is also not too bad on paper.

12. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks (47.4%, 20 FGA, 25.9 PPG): – For such a high volume jump shooter, his percentage is right where you want it.

13. Zach Randolph, Los Angeles Clippers (47.5%, 18.1 FGA, 22 PPG): Besides being a punkass, Randolph shoots well in the paint.

14. Boris Diaw, Charlotte Bobcats (49.4%, 10 FGA, 11.8 PPG): Diaw has a chance to establish his game in a new city, and so far, the results have been excellent.

15. Udonis Haslem, Miami Heat (51.4%, 8.8 FGA, 10.8 PPG): Not a go-to guy, but Haslem throws up nearly nine shots a game at over 50 per cent success rate.

16. Jason Thompson, Sacramento Kings (50%, 8.3 FGA, 10.4 PPG): The Kings rookie has been up and down all season, but has good numbers for a freshman.

17. Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers (49.2%, 8.1 FGA, 10.3 PPG): Odom has been getting way more looks with Andrew Bynum going down for an extended period.

18. Shawn Marion, Toronto Raptors (48.2%, 10.6 FGA, 12 PPG): It will be interesting to see how he fits in Toronto playing next to Bosh, but don’t be surprised to see his skill reemerge now that he’s out of Miami.

Top 10 Clankers

1. Ron Artest, Houston Rockets (38.8%, 13.9 FGA, 15.8 PPG): Overrated. Overrated. Overrated. Yeah, I said it.

2. Stephen Jackson, Golden State Warriors (40.5%, 16.7 FGA, 20.5 PPG): S-Jax scores a lot, but he also misses quite a bit.

3. Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando Magic (40.1%, 13.9 FGA, 17 PPG) – His name on this list was a surprise to me, as anytime I see the Magic play, he seems to hit a lot of shots.

4. Al HarringtonNew York Knicks (42.3%, 17.5 FGA, 20.2 PPG): Maybe if the shoes he wore were not sold exclusively at K-Mart, he would shoot better.

5. Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans Hornets (41.1%, 12.4 FGA, 14.4 PPG): Stojakovic is a long range specialist who shoots two-pointers at an only slightly higher percentage as he does three-pointers.

6. Richard Jefferson, Milwaukee Bucks (43.2%, 13.8 FGA, 17.7 PPG): It has got to suck to be stuck in Milwaukee, especially given that half the team is hurt.

7. Wilson Chandler, New York Knicks (42.6%, 12.4 FGA, 13.7 PPG) – I am surprised that Chandler has gotten the ball enough to shoot over 12 times a game. I guess in Mike D’Antoni’s system, everyone gets looks.

8. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers (43.5%, 19 FGA, 25.4 PPG): It is a shame he has bad knees, because Granger could be a special player. He may force it at times, but his team needs him to shoot the rock.

9. Andres Nocioni, Chicago Bulls (41.4%, 8.5 FGA, 10.4 PPG): This year has been a struggle for the native of Argentina.

10. Matt Barnes, Phoenix Suns (40.9%, 8.3 FGA, 9.3 PPG): Barnes was on plenty of sleeper lists heading into this season, but despite seeing more minutes than usual, his fantasy relevance has almost completely vanished, in no small part because his shooting continues to suffer.

On Friday, we will take a look at the big dudes and see how they stack up.

Welcome to the first edition of The Hidden Truth, a new NBA fantasy column in which I will be focusing on exposing the stats and players that win fantasy leagues. For instance, everyone knows Allen Iverson can hoop, but what are the consequences of starting him in your fantasy league? Does he shoot a high percentage? For those Roto-lovers out there, all categories are equal. First place in steals is the same as first place in points. So let’s dive in!

The first edition of this column will focus on field goal percentage. It is evident that if you take more shots farther from the rim, your shooting percentage is usually lower, so you have to take these rankings with a grain of salt. Just because Chauncey Billups shoots a low percentage does not make him a worse fantasy player than Ronnie Brewer, who is in the top 10 in FG percentage. To build a championship fantasy hoops squad, you must be balanced, but it does help to have guys with high field goal percentages at all positions.

Today we will look at the guards.

Top 10 High Percentage Finishers

1. Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics (50.3%): The Celtic point guard is a solid fantasy player as he puts up decent points, assists, rebounds, and steals, but he shines in the field goal percentage category. This is a product of taking good shots in a good system, but man has he ever come a long way from his rookie season when his shooting was considered a major weakness.

2. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets (49.6%): Mr. Do-it-all also does not miss too often.

3. Ronnie Brewer, Utah Jazz (49.5%): Jerry Sloan likes this slasher because he gets good shots. People may see him as a role player, but he is averaging over 13 PPG this season.

4. Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors (49.4%): Calderon does it a little differently — even though he is more of an outside shooter than Rondo or Tony Parker, he will help you in FG percentage just as much.

5. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs (49.4%): The Frenchman has perfected his 15-to-18 foot jumper from dead-on. This compliments his drives to the basket which create high percentage layups.

6. Ray Allen, Boston Celtics (49.1%): For a guy who chucks up threes at an alarming rate, it is a surprise that Ray-Ray clocks in at sixth on the list. I think people discount all of the layups he gets on baseline drives after doing a pump fake.

7. Andre Miller, Philadelphia 76ers (47.9%): The steady point guard always finds a way to take good shots.

8. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat (47.8%): Flash is back and he is doing his thing.

9. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (47.5%): Kobe makes more difficult shots than anyone in the league.

10. Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers (47.4%): Roy has a nice jumper, but he also can finish near the rim, as we saw on his dramatic game-winning bucket against the Knicks recently.

Honourable mention: Derrick Rose (47.3%), Leandro Barbosa (47.2%), Mike Miller (47.2%), Deron Williams (47.2%), Steve Nash (46.8%), Mo Williams (46.8%)

Note: Jameer Nelson was shooting over 50 per cent from the field, but he is now out for the season, so he was not included on this list.

Top 10 Clankers

1. Baron Davis, Los Angeles Clippers (35.2%): Too many bad shots coupled with injury problems has left B-Diddy as a bust this season.

2. Tracy McGrady (38.8%), Houston Rockets: T-Mac loves to shoot and can be very streaky. Now, he’s on the shelf.

3. Raymond Felton, Charlotte Bobcats (39.4%): Will learn to take better shots.

4. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (40.7%): The former UCLA guard will get better with time as he works off Durant.

5. Randy Foye, Minnesota Timberwolves (40.9%): Nobody in American has seen all of the misses. Have the Timberwolves ever played on national TV?

6. Chauncey Billups, Denver Nuggets (41.6%): Mr. Big Shot is also Mr. Big Miss, but in fairness, he shoots a lot of three balls, and that hurts his percentage.

7. Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks (41.6%): His jumper is as ugly as his kid.

8. Jamal Crawford, Golden State Warriors (41.7%): This baller could drop 30 points or shoot under 30 per cent on any given night.

9. Kevin Martin, Sacramento Kings (41.9%): He forces it a lot, but then again the Kings do suck, so who else is going to chuck it up?

10. Allen Iverson, Detroit Pistons (42.1%): AI has always been a “volume” shooter…everywhere he goes.

Dishonourable mention: Mike Conley (42.4%), Chris Duhon (42.4%), Derek Fisher (42.4%), Mario Chalmers (42.6%), Roger Mason (42.7%), Joe Johnson (43.3%), Nate Robinson (43.8%), Vince Carter (43.9%).

As mentioned before, this list does not determine a player’s overall worth. It is just one factor you should consider when building your fantasy lineup. Also, bear in mind that I tried to focus on fantasy relevant players. I am not going to argue if you say Daniel “Booby” Gibson should be on the list because his percentage is lower than Billups. However, in my mind, anyone named Booby should be a fantasy free agent.

Next: On Wednesday, we’ll take a look at the top-shooting and worst-shooting Forwards.