After a few days off to revel in Canada Day and 4th festivities, we’re back with more of the 2009 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit with yet another team preview (we’re on the home stretch now, with just a dozen NFC teams left to tackle). We’re going to try to shoot out all these team previews and then start releasing the kit’s other goodies (cheat sheets, sleepers/busts lists, etc.). Before we wonder if the New York Giants can recover from last season’s playoff disappointment, it’s important to acknowledge the death of the great Steve McNair, who was tragically murdered Saturday at the age of 36. I always admired his resiliency, and he’ll be missed.

What Went Right

Umm, not too much went well for Giant Fantasy interests in 2008. Sure, Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward both surpassed 1,000 yards, but both effectively took the Fantasy potency away from the other. Jacobs’ 15 touchdowns allowed him to rank 12th at running back (in standard scoring) while Ward’s impressive yardage numbers boosted him to 23rd despite a measly two touchdowns.

What Went Wrong

Eli Manning continued his inconsistent career as he had 10 games of under 200 yards passing. He did manage to complete better than 60 per cent of his passes for the first time in his career and he remained a solid Fantasy backup, but it’s looking more and more likely that Manning just isn’t a Fantasy starter. Oh, and then there was the whole Plaxico Burress shooting incident. Burress’ absence left a void mostly unfilled last year. Domenik Hixon was the most able replacement, leading the team with a measly 596 receiving yards. Finally, Kevin Boss got some buzz as a sleeper last year (not by myself, mind you) and that went rather poorly. He was an apt blocker, but no Fantasy team cares about that.

Off-season Outlook

While the Giants flirted with just about every free agent wide out that came onto the market, they ended up holding off on any Fantasy impact additions. On the plus side, they did let Ward scurry off to Tampa Bay, which is encouraging for the Fantasy potential of Jacobs. Ahmad Bradshaw will see a bigger part of the pie, but Jacobs should be in line to at least approach 300 carries in 2009, assuming he can stay healthy.

Draft Outlook

While New York passed on free agent wide outs, it did feel a need to use its first round pick on one in the form of UNC’s Hakeem Nicks. Nicks was pegged by some as perhaps the most NFL-ready of the wide outs in the draft (aside from Michael Crabtree, I assume). For now, he’s entrenched behind Hixon and Steve Smith (NYG) for a starting spot. And yes, I’m pretty sure Smith’s (NYG) legal name includes the ‘(NYG).’ Seriously, look it up.

State of the Team

Quarterbacks

Manning is going to be the starter for a long time, no matter what I say. So I’ll just be nice and say that he definitely is better than David Carr. Probably.

Running Backs

As previously mentioned, it’s all about Jacobs now. He’s dealt with injuries in the past, but if he’s healthy, he will outperform his draft position. Aside from that, Bradshaw is a worthy handcuff in deeper leagues.

Wide Receivers

Nicks is one of those late first round wide outs getting positive press from the off-season workouts. He’s definitely a sleeper candidate, although the normal rule that rookie wide outs tend to not be great Fantasy options still applies. Of the two starters on paper, I’m personally more intrigued by Smith (NYG) as it is his third year. I think he might surprise moreso than Hixon. But any of the three could step up as the top option.

Tight Ends

Little to no Fantasy value here. Boss will contribute with the odd good game, but he’s not worth drafting. Just avoid this group.

Defense/Special Teams

It was nice to see the Giant defense get back to the strong play last year that the team has historically been known for. The past few seasons have actually been a defensive struggle for New York, ranking 25th in yards allowed a few seasons ago and only 17th in points allowed two years ago. There’s no reason to think it won’t be a solid value defense again in 2009.

We’ve got more of the 2009 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit for you today with yet another team preview (we’re now over halfway through these puppies). We’re going to try to shoot out all these team previews and then start releasing the kit’s other goodies (cheat sheets, sleepers/busts lists, etc.). While you wonder what kind of effect the NFL court battle over its licensing deal for sports merchandise can have on sports in general, find out if the Eagles can build on their strong playoff showing and get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2005.

What Went Right

Thank the heavens, the Eagles finally drafted a good wide out. After Andy Reid was 0-for-life in this department, Philly landed DeSean Jackson and watched him blossom into the second-best receiving option Donovan McNabb has had in his career. The two combined for 62 receptions and 912 yards, lofty totals for any rookie wide receiver. While Brian Westbrook battled some injury woes and had his lowest yards-per-carry average since 2005 (another injury-plagued season), he did still account for nearly 100 total yards and a score per game. And not that I really care, but the Philly defense had another nice Fantasy year. But really, defense is so boring.

What Went Wrong

McNabb has developed a slight case of inconsistency over the last couple years. Nine times last year he finished with one or zero touchdown tosses. It’s not the end of the world and McNabb was still a top 10 Fantasy quarterback, but that does put a huge burden on your other players week-to-week. The other issue for the Iggles was the other wide out spot. Kevin Curtis couldn’t stay healthy (and he’s better in the slot anyway) while Reggie Brown regressed. Of course, Brown has been regressing since his rookie year, so that’s no surprise.

Off-season Outlook

Perhaps we should have known it was coming with Reid’s pedigree, but the Eagles spent much of the offseason restocking their offensive line by bringing in former Bill Jason Peters and former Bengal Stacy Andrews. It will be interesting to see how Stacy’s brother Shawn Andrews adapts to being moved to the tackle position (and how he comes back from last year’s back injury). Aside from that, Philadelphia’s only other Fantasy impact move was letting L.J. Smith take his butter fingers a couple hours west to Baltimore. That means Brent Celek should be on your Fantasy radar as a minor sleeper.

Draft Review

Oh boy. Perhaps bolstered by the success of Jackson, Reid and the Eagles spent another high draft pick on a wide out, this time a first rounder on Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin. The pundits seemed to be mostly in favour of this, although Maclin is another slightly undersized guy on the outside. It’s nice to at least have one bigger target, especially in the red zone. Also, with the aforementioned Westbrook injury issues, the Eagles finally decided having a competent back-up running back was worthwhile, so they selected Pittsburgh’s LeSean McCoy. While he’s a worthy handcuff if you have large rosters, the big news here is that the Eagles now have a DeSean and a LeSean. Maybe they could wring Keyshawn out of retirement (and get him to change his spelling to ‘KeSean’). That would be great.

State of the Team

Quarterbacks

Same ol’, same ol’. McNabb just needs to stay healthy and he’ll be a Fantasy starter. Kevin Kolb disappointed when he started last year, but it does look like he’ll get another chance when McNabb’s contract runs out.

Running Backs

Westbrook and McCoy have the ability to be one of the better one-two punches in the league. The thing to watch out for is carry distribution. Obviously, we all don’t want this to turn into a committee and we don’t want Westy to lose the goal line car…er…shovel passes, so watch how the carries are doled out early on in the season.

Wide Receivers

It’s all about Jackson and Maclin. The two have a chance to be the most dynamic wide out duo in town since…I don’t know, Harold Carmichael and Charlie Smith? It’s been a long, long time.

Tight Ends

I’m not sure if my optimism for Celek has more to do with his talent or the fact that he’s not Smith. Either way, if you wait until very late in your draft for a tight end, Celek is worth considering.

Defense/Special Teams

This group came back strong last season, especially in terms of pass defense. It remains one of the top Fantasy units around and is a great value once the best groups are taken way too high.

We’re back with more of the 2009 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit today, as Andy graces us with his first team preview. Once we wrap up these team previews (this is the fifth already), we’re going to start releasing the kit’s other goodies (cheat sheets, sleepers/busts lists, etc.). Stick around, folks. The party’s just getting started.

What Went Right

Through all the tumult and acrimony in the Big D, Tony Romo has established himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the whole league. While his completion percentage did drop a little last year, his interception percentage did as well. That shows a maturing quarterback who is more willing to throw the ball away than force one into a tough situation. Meanwhile, his yardage per game rose as he ranked fifth in the league last year.

The running game, despite injuries, proved that Dallas can go three deep with ball carriers. Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice all contributed to the Cowboys’ 4.3 yard per carry average, good enough for 12th in the league. Now if they could just all get 20 carries a game.

The other bright spots were the bottom three Fantasy positions. Jason Witten, Nick Folk, and the defense all played as top 10 Fantasy producers. Witten, in particular, was a beast, hauling in nearly 1,000 receiving yards while fighting nagging injuries.

What Went Wrong

With Terrell Owens now out of town, it would have been nice to see any second wide out step up. The Cowboys got 10 games from Roy Williams, but the only sign of that is the “Games Played” column, because he hardly made a statistical impact. We don’t have any idea what Williams will do next season. And anyone that claims they do is flat out wrong. He has the talent, but he didn’t look like an NFL receiver.

Injuries. Injuries. Injuries. Romo, Barber, Jones, and Witten (even though he played a full 16 games) all battled injuries last year. It seems like a recurring theme with this group, but if they could stay healthy, who knows what they’d be able to do.

Off-Season Outlook

Jerry Jones and the Cowboys did a little purging, hoping to drop some of the “dead weight” they had accumulated over the years. This started with Owens and ended with Adam Jones. The working theory is that Romo will be able to play his game without worrying about forcing Owens the football. Of course, there is precedence for that. Back in 2006, when Donovan McNabb played his first full season without Owens, he improved his yards per game (compared to his last full season with Owens). He also led the league in touchdown percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, and yards per completion. If Williams does revert to his old playing level, Romo may not fall in value at all.

Draft Outlook

What draft? Oh, yeah. The Cowboys chose not to participate in this one, for all intents and purposes. They didn’t draft on the first day and that made everyone at ESPN really sad. Dem’s da breaks.

State of the Team

Quarterbacks

While Romo is a given as a top 10 Fantasy pick, the Cowboys did quietly upgrade their back-up quarterback situation. Last year, they went with a geriatric Brad Johnson. That didn’t work out so well, so they brought in Jon Kitna this season. It’s nothing special, but if you own Witten or Williams, that’s good news all the same.

Running Backs

Again, not much change with this group. It just comes down to how the carries are distributed. Barber is the “starter,” but Jones proved himself as a consistent home run threat. And Choice came in and did a little of everything. Obviously, this hurts the value of all three, but under the right conditions, any could be Fantasy starters.

Wide Receivers

Yech. Okay, Williams can’t be that bad. Maybe he just needed some extra practice time or something. Really, everything comes down to him this year. If he can regain his Detroit form, this group can still be successful. Patrick Crayton has shown glimpses of competence and Miles Austin will continue to chip in as a third guy. But if Williams still struggles and Crayton is alone out there, things could get pretty messy.

Tight Ends

Witten and Martellus Bennett actually make up one of the best tight end duos in the league. The Cowboys haven’t been too keen on using two-tight end sets as of yet, but if the wideouts struggle, it might make more sense this year.

Defense/Special Teams

DeMarcus Ware is set up for an even better year than last season. With the other Roy Williams gone, Jones gone, and Wade Phillips totally at the helm, expect the Cowboys to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks with ease. The pass defense still won’t be anything great, but without the liabilities they’ve had in the past, it can’t help but to improve. The big question is whether the defensive line and linebackers will be able to contain opposing running games. Whatever Williams took away from pass defense, he added with run defense, and it was clear later in the year the Cowboys did indeed need that. So maybe Jay Ratliff and Keith Brooking can contain that up the middle, but if not, it could be a long season in Dallas.

Ah, it’s finally March. In a mere two weeks, it’ll all be about upsets and draws. We’ll pick apart 32 games from every possible nuanced angle. But to get to the glory of the double digit Cinderella, we have regular season and conference tournament action on the docket. RotoRob’s March Madness coverage will begin gearing up now with periodic look-ins at the college basketball world.

We’ll kick off with an examination of the bubble teams that look good.

Who’s Looking Out (…of the bubble…on to the inferior teams)

Dayton (24-5, RPI 28) – Obviously, playing in the A-10 ain’t quite as tough as other conferences, but Dayton really shouldn’t have to sweat this one out. It’s been very good with quality wins over Xavier (11) and Marquette (30). Losses to Charlotte (193) and Massachusetts (172) aren’t great, but Dayton is 17-0 at home and have another chance to impress with an away game at Xavier tomorrow. Probable seed: 6 or 8.

Texas A&M (20-8, RPI 34) – A&M should not be in this position. Its schedule should have included decent out of conference games which would have either assured it a spot or definitely shown it doesn’t belong. As it stands, we’re not really sure what to do with this squad. No glaring losses. No great wins. Overall, the RPI is good and it did beat LSU (22). But it lost every statement game. If it beats Missouri on Saturday, it’ll be in a much better spot. Probable Seed: 9 or 10.

Arizona (18-11, RPI 47) – The Wildcats have put up three quality top 25 RPI wins in Kansas (7), Washington (13), and UCLA (25). A couple bad losses at Stanford (110) and at Washington St. (89) are blemishes. Still, Arizona has a ton of good quality victories and just need to finish strong. Probable Seed : 10 or 11.

Michigan (17-12, RPI 48) – Amazingly, the Wolverines haven’t appeared in the NCAA tournament since 1998 (or was it 1989?). Something about scandals and sanctions and whatnot. Michigan has played a really tough schedule this year – it ranks ninth overall – so its 17-12 record is actually better than it looks. Quality wins include Duke (1) Illinois (19), Purdue (24) and UCLA (25) on a neutral court. Among the 12 losses, 11 were to definite tournament or bubble teams. Only Iowa (111) could really go down as a bad loss. Probable Seed: 9 to 11.

Boston College (20-9, RPI 49) – The Eagles have beaten Duke (1), UNC away (3), and Florida State (16) this season. But they also lost to Harvard (247) at home. Come on, how does that happen? Anyway, they’re on the course for the tourney. Probable Seed: 7 or 8.

St. Mary’s (22-5, RPI 53) – Well, this guy seems to think St. Mary’s is in. I guess he’s got a point. The committee has been known to take injuries into account when making selections, and the…ummm…Gaels (that’s a bird, right?) are 18-1 with “star guard” Patrick Mills. Without him, they are 4-4. Quality wins over Utah St. (32) and San Diego St. (46) should propel these winged creatures to March Madness. Probable Seed: 12 or 13.

Obviously, some will disagree that these are all tourney teams if they remain on their current trajectory, but I’ll stand by them…until selection day at least.

I don’t like to talk about my personal fantasy football teams that often because, well, “no one gives a **** about your fantasy team!” Or so I’ve been told. But this week I’m playing for a title and I’m feeling, well, empty. Don’t get me wrong, I hope I win and all that jazz, but I think the big secret about fantasy football is that fantasy title week, usually Week 16, is a major drag.

First of all, there’s something cool about every game affecting your league. Even that Bengals-Browns game has meaning to the Braylon Edwards and T.J. Houshmandzadeh owners. Now, with only two teams still alive, many games are as worthless as an Andy Reid challenge flag. That’s depressing. The three games I get on Sunday feature exactly zero of the players in the championship game. Awesome. Now I actually have to watch for the, umm, actual game. Who wants that?

Another issue is that there’s nothing left to do. Waiver picks? Most leagues don’t allow them anymore. Start/sit? Okay, but most teams pretty much have the rotation figured out by Week 16. I already had Maurice Jones-Drew get me off to a decent start this week, but he got injured. You know what I’m doing about that? Nothing! That’s boring.

Finally, win or lose, the season is going to be over. And then comes Week 17, which might just be the worst week of the season. I hate it. And if you use Week 17 for your championship week, I invite you to go back to 1995 and get a clue about what you’re doing! Nothing good can happen in Week 17. Either your guys do well and you hate them, or they suck, and you question everything you believed. Bonus points if you’re in a dynasty league, in which case you spend five months questioning what Week 17 really means to the next season.

Anyway, good luck this week. I wouldn’t watch if I didn’t have to. It’s just depressing. Now we’ll have to watch NASCAR or something.

Sneaky Start

Starting 49er Running Back – San Francisco 49ers (@ Rams) – At some point prior to the game on Sunday, I assume we’ll figure out who is going to be starting at running back for the 49ers. It could be Frank Gore. Might be DeShaun Foster. As a sidenote, I could start Gore this week, and I had a sneaking suspicion during the preseason that Foster would screw me over somehow this year. I guess it isn’t his fault that Gore got hurt, but it’s still annoying. Anyway, as I was saying, one of these guys will destroy the Rams. Gore went for 100 yards and two scores in their earlier meeting. If he gets the green light again, he’ll be tough to bench. Oh, and I guess Foster can’t do too poorly. Bum.

Surprising Sit

Kurt Warner – Arizona Cardinals (@ Patriots) – There are two Warners. One is healthy Warner. He slings the ball with ease. He always picks the right receiver. He is unflappable and may be the best quarterback in NFL history. The other is concussed Warner. He fumbles snaps. He fumbles throws. He throws to the wrong team. It’s a pretty clear difference between the two. Sadly, I haven’t been able to watch the Cardinals as much as I would have liked this season, and I never saw Warner take a concussion, but just looking at his numbers lately, I have to assume that happened somewhere along the line. So with the Cardinals going cross-country, Anquan Boldin either slowed by injury or not playing, and the whole freezing temperature thing makes me question whether Warner is worth starting. Last year, he quietly won many fantasy championships. This year, he could easily lose fantasy championships around the world. It’s kind of exciting in a karmic way.

Okay, give Steve Breaston, Warrick Dunn, and Dustin Keller some consideration this week as all have good matchups. Also, for the love of god, start Maurice Jones-Drew since he’s going to have 150 total yards on Sunday.

Normally, I do more in-depth analysis on those sneaky starts, but I feel a need to talk about Terrell Owens. And chess freakazoid Bobby Fischer. Trust me, it’ll make sense.

I seem to follow Owens around this country. Well, at least I have lately since I moved from the Philiadelphia area to Dallas. And clearly, there seems to be a pattern here. Even though Owens is going finish as one of the top touchdown receivers, as he ranks second currently, the off-the-field issues are mounting. I made the mistake of listening to Dallas sports talk radio the other day and it reminded me a lot of Philly sports talk radio. From what I could gather, Owens was a “cancer,” Jason Garrett could be using the Owens fiasco to gain the head coaching job, and the Cowboys are the worst team in the history of the NFL. Or something like that.

But here’s the thing. Owens reminds me of Fischer. Now, that might be a shocking statement to some, but I have this thought out very well. First of all, let me state that I am obviously not a mental health expert (I just play one on TV). But “Bobby Fischer Insane” gets over 45,000 returns on Google while “Terrell Owens Insane” gives about 64,000. As a control, “Andy Goldstein Insane” only returned 101 results. And 28 of those 101 actually come from RotoRob, which is interesting. Anyway, the point is that Fischer and Owens have some similarities in terms of mental issues.

While Owens will often scream at teammates or come up with stupid celebrations, Fischer probably surpassed him in sheer madness. Fischer would forfeit games if the lighting wasn’t right or if he thought opponents were cheating, which happened a surprising number of times. Fischer also developed some severe neuroses regarding Jews and America. But the big issue with both of these guys is that the media was/is unable to address the mental side of these guys. Owens is called “insane” as a joke, mostly. Instead of compassion, the sports radio guys chuckle or get mad at Owens.

Similarly, the media did a fine job exploiting Fischer. Many applauded ESPN’s Jeremy Schapp as he confronted Fischer at one of his bizarre press conferences. It goes without saying that Fischer’s bigotry is reprehensible, but it’s a result of a sickness. Boiling that down to a four-minute hit job is disrespectful to the illness.

Obviously, Owens’ case is not as severe, and as far as I know, he doesn’t have anything against any set of people. But this is a guy who apparently attempted suicide. He has worn out his welcome in every city he has played for. And, every time he talks into a mic, a majority hope for some fireworks. That’s not fair to Owens and I do have some worries about what could happen to Owens as his career winds down. I hope we don’t have a Fischer repeat.

Good luck in Week 15!

But how is this practical? NFL fans like watching multiple games at once. Fantasy freaks like us need to know exactly how many yards our starters have at any given moment. I guess I could just, you know, take the glasses off to check the stats. But, the thing is, I’m very lazy, and I suspect many of my peers are as well. What the NFL should be working on is some kind of personalized TV service that let’s you pick out your fantasy players and watch them whenever they are on the field. Wait. What? The NFL Ticket already does that? Well, shoot. All my good ideas get taken.

Just a couple sneaky starts today because, let’s face it, it’s the playoffs. You pretty much know what to do at this point.

Sneaky Starts

Kevin Smith – Detroit Lions (vs. Vikings): You know what is a really good fantasy development? When your running back gets to face a team that just lost its entire defensive line. That’s awesome. Okay, I guess there’s some legal wrangling over whether the Williams’ are going to be able to play, but the writing is on the wall. The Vikings are in deep doo-doo and Smith should be able to benefit. Before last week’s Turkey Day debacle, Smith had three straight games with at least 85 rushing yards. A touchdown might be asking for just a little too much this week, but if you could use 100 total yards, Smith should be considered.

Torry Holt – St. Louis Rams (@ Cardinals): Okay, this is not for the feint-hearted. Holt has had three (maybe three and a half) decent fantasy games all season. But he did get eight looks last week, which is a nice little uptick for him. Marc Bulger is back at the helm, which is more good news. Steven Jackson will take pressure off the intermediate passing game and the Rams have done a good job at connecting on some longer pass plays. All of that should allow Holt to post some respectable games as the season closes out. He scored a touchdown against the Cardinals earlier this season and Arizona ranks dead last in passing scores allowed. All in all, it might be a worthy gamble to start Holt this weekend.

Enjoy the fantasy playoffs. And remember, don’t wear sweat pants to a night club and then put your gun haphazardly into your sweat pants then leave the safety off and then accidentally trigger the weapon while it is aimed at your lower extremities. Even if it takes multiple post-it notes, that’s a good reminder to leave on your front door.

No, the problem is that I have no idea how much passion there will be for football at this Thanksgiving. Will they have the games on? Will I be scoffed at if I sit and watch the games for, I don’t know, six consecutive hours? If they don’t usually watch the games, would it be wrong of me to ask to turn them on? Will it be okay if I ask for their wireless Internet password so I can keep up with the stats on my iPod?

These are huge dilemmas for me! When I host Thanksgiving, we’re eating right in the entertainment room. Everyone will pile around the big screen TV and half-distractedly talk about what they’re thankful for. I can’t wait.

On to a mini Turkey Day Prepare Thyself.

Sneaky Turkey Day Start

LenDale White, Tennessee Titans (@ Lions): The Tennessee coaching staff continues to understand that Chris Johnson is really good and that White is, well, not. The biggest number of importance here, as usual, is yards per carry. Johnson stands at 4.5 (good) while White is turning in 3.8 per carry (bad). On top of tangible statistics, Johnson has taken the season and split carries in stride (good) while White has started up with the griping (bad).

Of course, all of that becomes somewhat moot when the Lions (bad) show up on the schedule. Johnson should still see a majority of carries (and is obviously a good start himself this week), but White has been promised an increased role as well. And, as always, White will get those goal line carries, which has helped him get those 11 rushing scores this season. All told, both backs should be fantasy forces this week against an awful Detroit defense.

Surprising Turkey Day Sit

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Seahawks): This is a two-fold surprising sit. The first is that the Seahawks have actually played well against the tight end position. While the pass defense as a whole has been brutal, Seattle has only allowed one tight end touchdown, and that was against Robert Royal all the way back in Week One. The other issue is that Witten hasn’t scored since Week Five against Cincy, and that’s not a coincidence. He has been beaten up a lot this season and is clearly dealing with nagging bumps and bruises. Do yourself a favour and leave Witten on your bench if you have a legit back-up option, like, I don’t know, Seattle’s John Carlson.

Good luck today. Have a safe and stuffing stuffed Thanksgiving!

On to Week 12 (!) sneaky starts and surprising sits.

Sneaky Starts

Roy Williams – Dallas Cowboys (vs. 49ers): Somehow, leaving the epic disaster that is the Detroit Lions has hurt Williams’ fantasy stock. Of course, part of the problem has been the whole Tony Romo injury fiasco. After three receptions in two games with Brad Johnson at the helm, he managed three in his first game with Romo back. The 49ers possess a sub par pass defense, so I’m thinking Williams will finally have a “breakout” game in a Cowboy uniform.

Greg Olsen – Chicago Bears (@ Rams): Olsen has had quite the roller coaster season. He averaged two catches, 20 yards and no scores over the first three games. Then, over the next four games, he jumped to four catches, 59 yards, and 0.5 scores per. The last three weeks saw the numbers regress to three and a half grabs, 32 yards, and no scores per game. The good news is that the Bears are playing the Rams, which is one of the nicer matchups possible. Olsen has also gelled well with Kyle Orton, who is in line to start this weekend. All in all, Olsen represents a decent fill in for an injured tight end.

Donald Lee – Green Bay Packers (@ Saints): Prior to the season, Lee was getting some sleeper talk due to his strong ’07 season and continued development in the Green Bay offense. Unfortunately, while Aaron Rodgers has exceeded expections, Lee hasn’t been on the receiving end of many passes. That is, of course, until last week when Lee managed six catches and a score. His stats this week could be boosted further by the injuries that Donald Driver is trying to play through. Those bumps and bruises clearly slowed Driver last week, and they won’t be much better this week. Lee is a touchdown waiting to happen this week.

Surprising Sits

Joseph Addai – Indianapolis Colts (@ Chargers): Even though it was his third game back from injury, Addai didn’t really do much until last week when he exploded for two scores and more than 150 total yards. So let me rain on your parade: Don’t start Addai this week. At least, don’t expect over 100 yards or a touchdown. Last week’s ginormous totals came against the Texans, a team that ranks 24th against the run. The Chargers place 10 spots higher in that department, which means the Colts are going to have to score points through the passing game, which is probably okay with them.

Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Vikings): Jones-Drew will score a touchdown this week. That’s about all the good news I have. The Vikings rank second in rushing defense, which is bad news for any back. The Jaguar rushing game has been exceptionally fragile this season. Jones-Drew has six games with fewer than 50 rushing yards this season, and I fully expect that number will be pushed to seven.

Good luck in Week 12!

What follows is my mostly futile attempt to capture FJM’s magic. Next step: Guest appearance on The Office. As FJM’s regulars know, excerpts from the article are in boldface text, and our caustic commentary is in regular text.

MVP Voting is out of Whack

Ryan Howard was the most valuable player in the National League in 2008.

This is actually true, unless you actually use the tools available which best determine a baseball player’s overall value to their team. But I like the gusto this column has already. Succinct, outrageous sentences are money.

That he was not voted MVP by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America says more about the association than about Howard, Albert Pujols or America.

I guess the “or America” part is a joke, because, like, it’s part of the association’s name. But I disagree all the same. This vote was historic because it showed that America can finally judge a baseball player by the stats they accrue, not the whims of perception. Yes We Can!

Pujols was not an embarrassing selection…

Because his numbers were better than everyone else’s, including Howard’s?

…not with his excellent numbers…

Which were better than everyone else’s…

…but was still the wrong selection.

Okay, that’s some solid reasoning right there. Pujols, who had the “numbers” was the “wrong selection” because “Howard was the Most Valuable Player.” Here I was, analyzing OPS, Adjusted Batting Runs, and Batter Wins. How foolish do I look, right now? You won this round, Sheridan.

And that should embarrass the association enough to do what it should have done long ago: get out of the business of voting on baseball’s postseason awards – as well as the Hall of Fame.
That won’t happen because the association is as incapable of being embarrassed…

Not to interrupt the self-hating, but the FJM archives are proof that Sheridan is right, these guys have zero shame.

Imagine Howard’s 2009 arbitration hearing. It will be different because he finished second in this voting as opposed to first. That alone is reason enough for the association to recuse itself from this annual charade.

This sounds like more of a problem with arbitration hearings, rather than the Writer’s Association. But that’s just me. And I thought the overwhelming statistical advantage that Pujols had over Howard meant the former deserved the MVP. So what the hell do I know?

It is similarly impossible to justify the association’s giving thumbs up or down to players from the steroid era who become eligible for Hall of Fame voting.

Umm, okay. Did any of you have that elementary school classwork where you read a paragraph, but some of the information presented wasn’t relevant to the rest of the writing, so you had to cross off the irrelevant portion? I did, and I aced that shit.

It is similarly impossible to justify the association’s giving thumbs up or down to players from the steroid era who become eligible for Hall of Fame voting.

Naaaaiiillleeeddd it.

(Disclosure: I belong to the association because membership streamlines the credential process and because the organization works to improve conditions and access for reporters; I don’t vote on anything.)

So you are 100 per cent absolutely, positively sure that Howard is the MVP of the National League, you have one of the coveted votes, and you abstain? Would this be the result of the Bradley effect!?

When I’ve written about this in the past, earnest members of the association have taken time out of their busy days to explain my ignorance to me.

Can I be a member of this association as well? It sounds like fun.

If the MVP is the player with the best all-round statistical season, a computer could figure that out. And a computer might well have spit out Pujols’ name this season. He was terrific.

It’s actually quite easy to define what the MVP is. It’s the most valuable player. And, yes, a computer would spit out Pujols’ name for the honour. But I forgot Howard has arbitration nearing…

But Howard got hot in September, hitting 11 home runs and driving in 32 runs to carry the Phillies into the playoffs. That’s the very definition of valuable.

Yes, six months into a six-month season, Howard got hot. Granted, he was the MVP of September. But Pujols was consistently (Copyright Joe Morgan) more valuable over the course of the six-month season.

The group-think association argument for Pujols, if I’m smart enough to get it right, is that he single-handedly kept the Cardinals in the wild-card race. That is brilliant, except it ignores the presence of Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus (so much for “single-handedly”), and the fact that the National League wild-card race was a watered-down farce.

Forget for a moment that the Cardinals’ roster doesn’t even come close to the Phillies’ roster; it might be worth pointing out that Philly possessed the third best pitching in the National League. St. Louis was middle of the pack. It probably also didn’t help that the Cardinals had the most blown saves in all of baseball*, while the Phillies had zero. If only Pujols would have gritted out some saves! What a cruel, cruel world.

* Sadly, I didn’t have to look that up, since I started Ryan Franklin on my fantasy team for half the season. Yes, I’m dumb.

The association seamheads love to throw around stats – OPS, VORP, ASPCA – to make a case for Pujols. That’s all great. Yes, he struck out less and hit for a higher average.

On a scale of 1-10 (1 being slightly more than a cat sleeping on a computer and 10 being a really smart cat wearing glasses while looking at a computer), Sheridan’s demonstrated understanding of statistics mentioned: -139

But Howard won actual baseball games in an honest-Abe pennant race. He had 11 more home runs than Pujols, scored five more runs than Pujols, and drove in 30 more runs than Pujols. Notice there are no decimal points involved there, only whole numbers that made a difference in real baseball games.

Phil Sheridan’s Guide to Statistics

Stats that have decimal points – Fake
Stats that don’t have decimal points – Real
Stats that don’t have decimal points but make my theory incorrect – Fake

That takes care of the logic.

Really, that was the logical part? Someone has cajones, Phil, you ol’ rascal! Let’s see if we can finish this column with the introduction of more useless information while restating the premise…

Ryan Howard – who has added a World Series ring to his 2005 rookie of the year and 2006 MVP trophies – will survive this voting nicely. The process that produced it should not.

Naiiiilllleeeedddd it.

Well, after a respite last season, it looks like a couple coaches are ready to toss their prime time backs to the monster that is the unrelenting curse of 370. Dynasty leaguers might want to seriously consider trading these two.

Clinton Portis – Up until last week, Portis was on pace for 374 carries. While that number is down somewhat now, I expect it to rise as the Redskins play close NFC East games down the stretch. Considering Portis already has a lot of miles in the NFL, this is an extremely troubling development. Obviously, his value is extremely high right now. Dynasty owners might be able to get a good young wide out (Calvin Johnson or Roddy White) or a quality quarterback.

Michael Turner – Turner is only on pace for 352 carries or so, but if last week’s 31 carries is any indication, the Falcons are content to ruin his career in his first year as a starter. Over the last four games, Turner has averaged more than 24.5 carries per game, which is an absurd 16-game pace of 396 carries. I guess they still have time to work Jerious Norwood into the games, but Norwood got a lot of touches last week and they still ran Turner too much. Anything over 25 in a game is flat out irresponsible coaching. All that said, he’s got plenty of value right now and dynasty owners might be better off cashing him out sooner rather than later.

Okay, if your league-mates don’t know the terrible history of NFL backs with more than 370 carries in a season, it might be prudent to wait until the offseason. Otherwise, it’s really not so absurd.

Sneaky Starts

Tyler Thigpen, Kansas City Chiefs (@ Chargers) – Quick, how many touchdowns (throwing, rushing, or, umm, receiving) does Thigpen have over the last three weeks? Well, if you said “the same number as Peyton Manning and Drew Brees,” then you’d be right. If you said “six,” you’d also be right, but not quite as cool. Anyway, it helps that he has the uber-talented Dwayne Bowe to toss the ball to. It also helps that the Chargers are just about the worst team in the league at stopping the pass. But I didn’t just put Thigpen here because of the Charger matchup! He’s been a fantasy beast lately! Okay, maybe not a beast. But he’s been adequate! Fantasy adequate! I promise, that is actually a compliment.

Ryan Torain, Denver Broncos (@ Browns) – Three carries for one yard. Okay, Torain didn’t exactly come out of the gates blazing. That’s okay. Every other running back on the Bronco roster is hurt. So basically, even if Torain had 20 carries for no yards, he’d still be in line to get a major dose of touches against Cleveland. At this point, I should give you my disclaimer, which is that this is the Broncos. They are coached by a guy who lives to screw my fantasy advice up. I think he reads my column and then does the opposite. Maybe it has to do with the curse of 370, which he relegated Terrell Davis to fall to. And Davis will never make the Hall of Fame because of it. Way to go!

Matt Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Lions) – Not suspended yet? Okay, good. Just a reminder.

Surprising Sit

No one! It’s Week 10, people. There’s no more getting cute. This is fantasy crunch time. Your players should either be returning from byes or returning from injuries. In the mean time, sit back and relax. This is when it gets really easy. Just start your best players and hope for the best. I’ve been in situations where I try to make “fancy” starts, and it usually ends poorly during this crunch time.

Good luck in Week 10!

Myth No. 1

I’m 0-8, 1-7, or 2-6 so my season is over. – This is really the biggest travesty in fantasy football. Yes, every year, some teams struggle. They get behind because of poor play, injuries, or just plain ol’ bad luck. But instead of puling out all the stops, some owners throw in the towel. My best argument against this comes with a story. Stop rolling your eyes, faithful readers! My stories are entertaining and pertinent!

Anyway, back in 2005, I drafted a shoddy team in my expert league. I had pretty good quarterback depth, with Kurt Warner serving as my backup. Other than that, I had nothing. Come Week Five, I was 1-4. I decided to go for a complete overhaul. I traded away Brett Favre for Larry Fitzgerald because the Fitz owner had great wide out depth, but no quarterback to speak of. I picked up some guy named Samkon Gado from waivers because there was a wisp of a hope he could start for the Packers.

I lost the following week because Fitz was on bye and I didn’t even have enough wide receivers to start anyone. But after that, things started to turn around. I finished the year on a 5-2 run to wind up at 6-7 and just a game out of a playoff spot. I’ve won fantasy titles. I’ve set scoring records. But that was my proudest moment as a fantasy owner. And, as karma would have it, I went ahead and dominated the league the following season behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Frank Gore.

But, the moral of the story: Never give up! Even if your only role is to be a spoiler, well, go for the gusto! Make some risky moves. I command it.

Myth No. 2

Only do a trade if it clearly benefits me and doesn’t help anyone else. – There’s absolutely nothing wrong with trying to get the best possible trade to help your squad. If it ain’t collusion and you pull it off, more power to you. If, however, you play in a league with competent opponents, that opportunity may not present itself all the time. Instead, you might have to (gasp!) part with value to get better value.

For example, let’s say you have Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, but you need to upgrade your running back slot. Trading Rodgers for, say, Thomas Jones or Maurice Jones-Drew might seem weak. But depending on your need, it might be worth it. At the end of the day, you want to put out the best team possible, regardless of what it does for your opponents, (The only time this may not be entirely true is if your have the best team in the league and then it might make sense to take more care to not let others catch up to you).

Myth No. 3

The best team wins the title – Frankly, I’ve found that the best team often doesn’t win the title. In fact, I would say at least half of the time, a weaker team goes on a nice run and gets some lucky post-season wins. Hey, it happens. If you put your team into the playoffs, that’s the best you can do. Anything after that is gravy.

So good luck this week and remember to not be taken in by the holy trinity of fantasy football myths.

Basically, I follow the World Wide Leader enough to feel as though I can offer some commentary on what happened this past week (we’ll get to it), but I also obviously have some bias in that I think the conglomerate is utter poop. So take that as you will.

On FOX’s Sunday pre-game show, football insider Jay Glazer (not employed by ESPN) dropped a moderate bombshell about Brett Favre. According to Glazer, Favre had been involved in a lengthy phone conversation with then Lion CEO Matt Millen and some of the Lion coaching staff. At least some of the conversation involved insight into stopping the Packer offense.

I’ll get into interpreting that information in a bit, but the most fascinating aspect of the story is how ESPN handled it. Actually, it didn’t handle it. It avoided the story like an elephant avoids a mouse. ESPN ran scared. An internal memo was sent that the story was not to be reported on. ESPN claimed it couldn’t verify the report. I have no problem with it not being able to verify the report. But why not report that? The story had been put out there by Glazer and FOX. ESPN should have reported on the story and added that it could not confirm it. But it didn’t. ESPN ignored the story until Wednesday.

On Wednesday, Favre was asked about the reports and mostly affirmed what Glazer reported. He admitted to talking with Millen and the coaches about the Packer offense and what his teams had done in the past against the Lions. He offered an excuse that players help their current teams all the time when facing their former teams. He denied having a current Packer game plan and denied that he actually helped the Lions in a meaningful way.

ESPN only reported the latter part there, a full four days after the story initially broke. It completely overlooked the part where Favre talked to the Lions about the Packer offense. In essence, if ESPN isn’t lying to its readers (by omission, at the very least), it is coming dangerously close.

Whether or not you think Favre’s actions were being overblown, the most fascinating aspect to the entire saga is how ESPN completely missed the mark in its reporting. It ignored the festering story much too long and then mysteriously reported on just half of the events on Wednesday. Why ESPN did this is beyond me. It could be incompetence, a disdain for Glazer, a protection of Favre, or something else altogether. If nothing else, it makes me question every other report coming from the WWL.

Sneaky Starts

Trent Edwards – Buffalo Bills (@ Dolphins) – I might have talked about Edwards before, but he has been a nice little backup for fantasy owners this season. Okay, he doesn’t have a multi-touchdown game just yet, but he has tossed exactly one in five of the six contests he has played in. The only game he didn’t get one was when he left early with a concussion. Miami has a pass defense located in the bottom half of the league. I guess I can’t be so bold as to predict Edwards’ first multi-touchdown game, but he will definitely provide a stable presence at the top of your fantasy lineup if you lost your starter to bye or injury.

Deuce McAllister – New Orleans Saints (vs. Chargers) – I guess some Saint fans are bummed about Reggie Bush’s injury. The team certainly loses a spark plug on special teams and catching passes out of the backfield. But on the plus side, New Orleans actually has a chance to run the ball effectively now! Woo! McAllister’s lifetime per carry average is 0.7 yards better than Bush’s. That might not seem like a lot, but over the course of a season, it does add up. San Diego has been allowing plenty of yards on the ground this season, and that shouldn’t change here. Expect McAllister to be a nice second back with some upside.

Antonio Bryant – Tampa Bay Bucs (@ Cowboys) – Bryant had a heck of a game last week, so it’s probably not quite a “sneaky” start anymore. But don’t anticipate Bryant to just be a fluke. He has pretty much supplanted Joey Galloway in the offense and now he gets to take revenge against one of the teams that didn’t believe in him. Also, have you noticed the Cowboys have absolutely no secondary left? There’s no reason Bryant can’t be a borderline top wide out this week.

Surprising Sit

LenDale White – Tennessee Titans (vs. Colts) – After last week’s incredible rushing display, just about everyone who has White on their roster will be amped up to start him against the porous Colt rush defense. Umm, not so fast, compadres. Did you all watch White’s improbable 80-yard touchdown scamper? Actually, it wasn’t a scamper. It was more of a slow roll down the field. You can’t expect anything like that to happen again. Ever. Sure, he’s always a candidate for a cheap score, but prior to last week, White was averaging an abysmal 2.6 yards per carry. Chris Johnson is averaging over 5.0 per carry. One is good. The other is not. You do the math.

Basically, the fantasy season has three parts. The opening act is chaos and uncertainty. You ride the hot hands and hope to avoid catastrophe. That just ended and now we’re smack dab in the middle of Act II: The Byes. In fiction, the middle act is when the protagonist often has very little hope. Luke is drifting on an Ice Planet. Sméagol is a dangerous presence. Harry is accused of murdering Cedric. You don’t get to start your proper lineup for five or six weeks. I usually fast forward through the bad parts of movies, but there’s little recourse in fantasy football. All you can do is find the sneaky starts and avoid the surprising sits. Luckily, I’m here to help you do exactly that.

Sneaky Starts

Brad Johnson, Dallas Cowboys (@ Rams): Alright. This one is easy. No Tony Romo + the addition of Roy Williams + Rams = start Johnson.

Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers (vs. Colts): – I don’t really know why Grant has struggled so much this season. Sure, part of it is defenses maybe not respecting Rodgers and the passing game and part of it is offensive line play that has not up to last season’s standards. But if those were the only issues, Grant would have done better the last couple weeks. I have to believe something else (like an injury) is holding him back. Still, the Colts rank near the bottom of the league in rush defense and Grant will get 20 to 25 carries. That’s enough reason to be cautiously optimistic this week.

Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings (@ Bears): – Okay, Berrian has two straight games of 100+ yards and a score, so I don’t know if he exactly qualifies as a “sneaky” start, but going against the Bear defense will worry many fantasy owners. Don’t sweat it, Bra! As the Bears displayed last week, when it comes to an offense with a quality back, they’ll completely sell out to stop the run. So while Adrian Peterson is facing 11 in the box (approximation), Berrian will be free to run. And catch.

Surprising Sits

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (vs. Vikings): – Once again, Forte failed to hit four yards per carry last week. He is averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per attempt on the season. Forte has feasted on bad defense and he contributes in the passing game, which is nice. But the Vikings rank fourth overall in rush defense. Because he’s a clear cut starter, there’s also a chance at a cheap goal line score, but don’t expect much in the way of yardage at all.

Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints (@ Panthers): Since the week after Marques Colston was felled by his thumb injury, Moore has averaged 77 yards per game. It’s been an impressive streak considering three other guys were at one point or another supposed to be “the guy.” Unfortunately, Colston is all but assured of returning to the lineup Sunday, which makes Moore’s days as a consistent force numbered. Sure, he’ll have his occasional good game, but as long as Colston is happy, Moore is nothing more than a fantasy backup. Pun intended.

Thomas Jones, New York Jets (vs. Bengals) – I haven’t exactly been Jones’ biggest supporter over the years. I’ve always considered him to be a rather low-ceiling runner. But when boring backs like Jones get the Bengals on the schedule, it could end up being a big day. Cincy ranks next to last in rushing yards allowed and is not much better in rushing touchdowns allowed. Jones will get his 20 carries and is worth a start over ailing players (LaDainian Tomlinson, anyone?) or underperforming ones (Ryan Grant, anyone?).

Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Cowboys) – Maybe it’s the week for old, boring running backs. James takes on a Dallas defense that will surely be distracted by the potent Cardinal passing game. James has three scores over the last two weeks and he should get at least another this week. Okay, his yardage numbers are pitiful and there’s no reason to expect a sudden jump to more than four yards per carry, but Kurt Warner will propel the offensive unit inside the red zone, which is where James gains his value.

Correll Buckhalter, Philadelphia Eagles (@ 49ers) – With Brian Westbrook suffering two consecutive injuries, it’s time, once again, to roll the dice with Buckhalter. With Westbrook ailing in Weeks Three and Four, Buckhalter totaled more than 170 total yards and two scores. Also, Donovan McNabb will probably put the Eagles on his back, which means whoever the running back is, they probably won’t see 20 carries. Still, a touchdown or two is definitely possible.

Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders (@ Saints) – With Darren McFadden dinged up, it looks like Fargas will be given the lion’s share of carries for the Raiders. The Saints aren’t really good at stopping anything defensively, so they probably welcome backs to run for “only” 4.5 per carry against them. Since a veritable plethora of backs are on bye this weekend, Fargas makes for a nice second, but preferably flex, fill in.

Surprising Sits

LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers (vs. Patriots) – It truly saddens me to have Tomlinson in this section. Unfortunately, the injury has almost completely neutered his fantasy value. I do think he will come around after the Charger bye week, but that’s down the road. For now, it’s okay to bench Tomlinson if you have a legitimate back-up option.

Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Bears) – Alright, I know you’ll all probably start White, but there’s reason to be worried about this one. The Bears have been very good against passing TDs, ranking seventh overall. They do give up yardage, but that’s mainly because they’ve been ahead a lot and have the most pass attempts against in the league. White has been remarkaby good, but has faltered slightly against the better defenses. So, go ahead and start him (I guess), but don’t expect a huge game.

Good luck in Week Six.

I might be somewhat biased (okay, very biased), but there are few teams as compelling this season as the Philadelphia 76ers. Last season was supposed to be a rebuilding process after the team traded away all-world guard Allen Iverson. In fact, it started off just that way with the squad limping to an 18-28 record through January. Coach Maurice Cheeks, at the urging of new General Manager Ed Stefanski, inserted some youngsters into the lineup. Thaddeus Young, Louis Williams, and Rodney Carney were given some burn not to win games, but to assess their value. But something funny happened. They kept outplaying opponents. February started with a five game winning streak. The fledgling Sixers ran opponents into submission. Then they started taking games from legitimate contenders like Orlando, Phoenix, and Boston. Then they clinched a playoff spot with a 22-12 record to close out the campaign. Then they took two of the first three from heavily favoured Detroit.

Okay, so the Pistons got their heads on straight and the Sixers were dispatched. If the team did nothing in the offseason, they’d still be getting plenty of hype. But they didn’t rest on their laurels at all. In fact, Stefanski and the Sixers made the biggest move of the offseason by signing (pilfering?) Elton Brand from the Clippers. A healthy Brand, of course, gives the Sixers a low-post scoring presence they desperately need in playoff basketball. It also gives an already solid, swarming defense, which was ranked eighth in efficiency last year, another dominating inside presence. Sure, Philly has some potential issues with outside shooting and figuring out where exactly to play Young, but it has the potential to make a run to the top of the Eastern Conference standings.

Projected Starting Lineup

PG: Andre Miller
SG: Andre Iguodala
SF: Young
PF: Brand
C: Samuel Dalembert

Key Bench Players: G Williams, G Willie Green, F Reggie Evans, F Donyell Marshall, F-C Marreese Speights (Rookie)

Position Battles

The Sixers are relatively set, especially in the starting rotation. I think the biggest “battle” will be how many minutes Young gets and where exactly he gets them. The Sixers can play big with Dalembert, Brand, and Young in together. Or they can play small with Brand at centre and Young at power forward, where he was most of the time last year. A lot depends on how Young does on both ends of the court. He held his own defensively last year, but if he can’t keep up with the quicker shooting forwards around the league, he could see his minutes dwindle.

The back-up centre position is interesting because Speights is pretty much the only guy thanks to Jason Smith’s knee injury which will cost him the entire season. Dalembert found himself in foul trouble often last season and Brand is coming off an injury plagued year. Speights will have to develop quickly to give both breathers. Other than that, expect a similar rotation as the Sixers used in the playoffs last year. Evans won’t see as much action as Young or Marshall, but he’s still their energy spark from the bench.

Stud: No need to get cute here as Brand has always been around 20 and 10 his whole career. Both numbers could go down a little with so many talented players around, but he should still be plenty effective. The biggest worry is really whether last year’s injury is truly behind him.

Dud: It’s hard to find a “dud” per se, but I’ll pick Miller as being somewhat overrated. His scoring shot up almost four points per game because he had to score during many stretches last season. The goal this year will be for Miller to revert back to his normal “pass first, shoot second” role. Again, he’s not really a bust waiting to happen, he just won’t help out the scoring category as much as he did last season, and that’s an important consideration when assessing his fantasy value.

Sleeper: Oh lord, Young or bust. His combination of size, lankiness, and quicks make him an absolutely compelling weapon for Cheeks and the Sixers. In the playoffs against the Pistons, he played out of position and contributed 10 and 5 per game. He also had better than a steal per game. Did I mention he just turned 20 a few months ago? Those that follow the Sixers know that Iguodala is a scorer and Brand is an alpha force. But they also know Young can become a superstar. There were times during those Piston playoff games last season (did I mention he was 19 then?) where Young was the best player on the court. In three or four years, if he progresses well, this could be his team.

Rookies to Watch: As mentioned above, there’s a feeling that the Sixers got a steal with Speights in the draft. He was one of the more dominant forces in the Summer League, which should of course be taken with a grain of salt. Mainly, it looks right now like he’ll have to get minutes at centre, and that could lead to a number of rebounds.

Fantasy Stories to Watch

The Sixers are such a deep squad, some talented guys are not going to get enough playing time or shots. It’s just bound to happen. So early on, closely check the box scores. Iguodala, Miller, and Dalembert could all see their scoring go down with Young and Brand taking chances away. Of course, Cheeks could choose to play smaller and Young could be left out of the mix for stretches. I think the early games will be a good indicator of where exactly the franchise plans to get its scoring from.

“Okay, Lane Kiffin is gonna be fired. It’s crazy what was going on, but it’s kind of been brewing for a while. Nothing unexpected. Alright. There’s Al. He actually looks good compared to the last couple times I’ve seen him. Okay, he seems a bit mad. Oh, a letter. That sounds nice…Holy Crap.

(23 minutes later)

Holy Crap.”

After digesting the full briefing (and re-watching it about six times, purely for research purposes, of course) I think I can give my honest assessment. People will come down pretty hard on Davis and say, well, things like this or this. I understand those reactions. Davis has been a comical train-wreck for some time now. That said, I think both sides should take equal blame. I think it’s obvious Davis was telling the truth about a lot of what he said. Kiffin wanted Brady Quinn and not JaMarcus Russell. Kiffin wanted the Arkansas coaching job and probably never got over the fact that Atlanta allowed Bobby Petrino to leave mid-season and Davis didn’t let him do the same.

At the end of the day, Davis is still off his rocker, but at least he has a passion for the Oakland Raiders. It was clear to me that Kiffin wanted no part of that team or his job. So, Davis may never be able to rebuild a winning organization, but he was right to part ways with Kiffin. Just my two cents. On to Week Five.

Sneaky Starts

Steve Breaston and Jerheme Urban, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Bills) – Yes, we all saw the hit that Anquan Boldin took last week. I was obviously inconsolable and, yes, I’ve been doing Google news searches for Boldin about 20 times a day this week. He should be okay, eventually, but probably won’t play this weekend. That means Breaston and Urban are both interesting plays. Buffalo has a solid defense all around, but Kurt Warner can chuck the ball. Breaston will assume the starter role, and I expect a solid 60 receiving yards from him.

Rudi Johnson, Detroit Lions (vs. Bears) – I have no idea why the Lions need so many running backs, but if any of them have a chance to succeed this week, it’s Johnson. You can’t expect a huge day against Chicago’s somewhat stingy defense, but a cheap score could be in order. Also, Johnson flashed some receiving potential as well, something the Bengals never afforded him. In this bye-stricken week, Johnson could be a decent plug in.

Jerious Norwood, Atlanta Falcons (@ Packers) – This is another bye-week-only kind of guy. If you’re deciding between Norwood and someone like Selvin Young, go with Norwood. The couple games where Michael Turner went ballistic, Norwood went for more than 100 total yards both times and scored once. Again, it’s a risk since Norwood isn’t the top option, but it’s a decent risk against the Packers’ woeful run defense.

Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titangs (@ Ravens) – With the Browns, Jets, and Raiders on bye, the position most hurt is probably tight end. That’s sort of an indictment of the teams that aren’t playing this week, but it does mean that I have to find a sneaky start at the position. Scaife has been streaky with two good games and two bad ones, but this game should result in a cheap score. Besides, you don’t get many chances to start a guy named ‘Bo’ anymore.

Good luck in Week Five.

Basically, I feel sorry for you, Lion fans. But at least your basketball and hockey teams have won titles recently. I’m a Philly fan, for heaven’s sake. I got nothing! On to Week Four. And I promise to actually find a surprising sit, since that mysteriously didn’t happen last week. I promise I’m not drinking while I write these. Okay, a little homemade limoncello, but that’s to be expected!

Sneaky Starts

Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills (@ Rams) – As I detailed last week, it’s the Rams. You can start anyone and everyone against them. It doesn’t hurt that Edwards has quietly turned in a solid, safe season so far, a la David Garrard from last year.

Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins (@ Cowboys) – Quarterbacks have fared well against Dallas this season, with Donovan McNabb and Aaron Rodgers turning in good fantasy performances. Not only has Campbell been strong this season, but he lit up the Cowboys last year (348 yards and two scores in Week 11) as well. Santana Moss and Chris Cooley are playing well, so there’s no reason to expect a down game for the Washington passing offense.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Texans) – Despite the offensive line woes, I’ve maintained a certain amount of optimism for Jones-Drew and the Jaguar running backs. That worked out nicely last weekend, so I hope everyone was listening to me out there in series-of-tubes land. The Texans have struggled against the run and have had a tumultuous season for sure. Jones-Drew should not only have a decent rushing day, but the aggressive Texan pass rush will lead to more than a few dump offs to the diminutive back in space.

Chris Perry, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Browns) – Much like the Rams against, well, everyone, the Browns allow fantasy owners start running backs at will. They have twice given up more than 150 rushing yards and Perry should benefit. He has increased his yard-per-carry each week and with a little effort and little luck, might just get that number to about 4.0 this week. You can do it, Chris! I believe in you!

On Second Thought

New Orleans Wide Receivers – Well, last week I said that David Patten was the Saint wide out worth watching and that ended rather poorly for me. Robert Meachem also got some love from experts and, while he has a touchdown and a long reception this season, his total of three receptions is unimpressive. Now Jeremy Shockey has been lost for three-to-six weeks and Patten is out in the short term with an injury. Everyone will jump on the Meachem bandwagon. I just don’t buy it. Lance Moore got more looks from Drew Brees than Meachem, Patten, or Devery Henderson. I’m actually significantly worried the Saint passing game can stay afloat with the injuries to Shockey, Patten and Marques Colston. Meachem might be worth a waiver wire flyer (if he’s still available), but I’m still a little tepid on what he can actually bring to the table.

Good luck and, as always, email me any questions about your Week Four roster predicaments. Actually, you can e-mail me any question you like. I’m opening the floor up to dating advice, discussion about The Hills, or whatever floats your boat.

Week Two was a welcome change for wide outs. While Week One saw plenty of good producers, many weren’t in any starting fantasy line ups. We’re looking right at you, Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson. This past slate of games, however, was different. And the torch bearer was Anquan Boldin, my pick for greatest human being ever on Earth (GHBEE) . He scored three times, pulled in 140 receiving yards, and I think delivered a baby on the way home from the game. Good stuff all around. But that’s in the rear view now, so let’s find some sneaky starts and surprising sits for all you pesky and voracious fantasy freaks.

Sneaky Starts

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Rams) – Honestly, I don’t even care who is playing the Rams. Every quarterback playing them every week will be a sneaky start. Yes, even Tyler Thigpen would qualify. I don’t even like Hasselbeck. He’s gimpy and the team brought back Koren Robinson and traded for Keary Colbert. I don’t think there’s a proper way to convey how desperate a team has to be to bring back Robinson, but I will say that even Chris Henry and the Bengals feel badly for them. But, at the end of the day, it’s the Rams. RotoRob could be started safely against them, and he only follows the CFL!

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers (@ Vikings) – Two big keys to why Delhomme is worth starting consideration this week: Steve Smith is the obvious one. Delhomme has done an okay job with his depleted wide out corps, which isn’t a ringing endorsement, but it really could have been worse. The other big point to keep in mind is that Carolina is facing the Vikings, which means it can just give up on the run right now. The Vikings stymied Joseph Addai and really looked like the run stuffers of old. If the Panthers attempt more than 15 runs, they will lose. I’m stating it right now.

Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs (@ Falcons) – Well, it’s the Falcons. And if you were dense enough to ignore our constant warnings about LJ over the last two seasons, you might as well start him here since it’s basically your last chance to. Enjoy it!

LenDale White, Tennessee Titans (vs. Texans) – In its only game this year, Houston allowed 4.7 yards per carry and three scores. The Titans’ top back is undoubtedly Chris Johnson, who will certainly get his and should be in every teams starting line up this week. White, however, will also get enough touches to be relevant. Don’t expect a huge yardage total, but he should get at least one cheap touchdown.

David Patten, New Orleans Saints (@ Broncos) – With Marques Colston out, Reggie Bush finished with the most catches and Robert Meachem scored the only touchdown through the air. The most telling stat, however, has to be targets (or looks) and Patten
won out. Sure, he only converted half of his looks into catches, but if he improves that just a tad, he could be a seven- or eight-catch for 80-to-100-yard wide out.

Mark Clayton, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Browns) – I’m not giving up on Clayton. The Browns defense couldn’t even hold the Steelers to under 185 passing yards while playing in Hurricane Ike. Assuming the winds stay under 50 miles per hour, Clayton and the Ravens should be in for a big game.

Good luck in Week Three and, as always, you can e-mail me any fantasy football questions.

Sneaky Starts

Eli Manning (@ Rams) – While I (ahem, correctly) pointed out that Manning wasn’t a good fantasy quarterback just because of last year’s playoff run, and that starting him against the Redskins would make you a sad fantasy owner, I am completely on the bandwagon this week. Mainly, the Ram pass defense is, well, historically bad. It’s hard to impress upon you, dear readers, just how bad, but maybe this shaky cam video can help. Now, you’ll see Hank Baskett do a little stop and go. You’ll also see the Rams choose not to cover him past the “stop” portion. So when the pass is thrown, the Rams have two players covering no one, and one player trying to cover two Eagles. Even Manning can take advantage of this pass defense.

J.T. O’Sullivan (@ Seahawks) – I guess because of the Mike Martz factor, people were expecting 300 yards and two touchdowns from O’Sullivan? He ‘disappointed’ by those standards, but his stat line did hold some positive numbers. He completed 70 per cent of his attempts, he tied with Ben Roethlisberger for the fifth-highest yards-per-attempt for the week, and he finished ahead of Roethlisberger, Brett Favre, and Aaron Rodgers in yardage. I know he had turnover issues, but the foundation was there for O’Sullivan to turn into a fantasy worthy player at some point. He just so happens to get the Seahawk pass defense this week, which allowed the Bills to get two passing scores (one came on a special teams trick play, but whatever). The Martz era might truly begin this week.

Edgerrin James (vs. Dolphins) – Despite my constant screams of “STOP RUNNING THE BALL ARIZONA, I HATE YOU!” and other things which can’t be printed here, Ken Wisenhunt tends to prefer a somewhat more grind-it-out style, especially early in games. James managed 100 yards last week and the Dolphin rush defense will be tested much more than last week against the Jets. Sadly for James owners, the goal line touchdowns will continue to go to Tim Hightower, but the yardage numbers should remain attractive.

Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. Bills) – Okay, so Jones-Drew’s first week went about as poorly as could be, but in a strange way, I can spin it into a positive. First, Fred Taylor somehow managed a worse stat line, so maybe we have a wisp of evidence in Jones-Drew’s favour. Also, the Jaguars lost guards — Vince Manuwai and Maurice Williams. This is great news for the multi-purpose back! Basically, Taylor will continue to struggle, but Jones-Drew should see even more receptions with the Jaguars opening up the playbook. Okay, it’s sort of a long shot, but MoJo (will that nickname ever stick?) owners may need a confidence boost.

Mark Clayton (@ Texans) – With quarterback Joe Flacco taking over for the Ravens, I have some optimism about Clayton making good on the potential he flashed a couple seasons ago. He was targeted five times, and importantly, a couple times downfield. Those looks didn’t result in catches, but if they continue to throw to Clayton deep, he will capitalize. The Texans stopped literally one pass out of Roethlisberger’s hand last week, so Clayton could be in store for a start-worthy performance.

On Second Thought

Carson Palmer (vs. Titans) – This edict goes for pretty much the entire Bengal offense. If nothing else, fantasy owners that have legitimate reserves should give Cincy some time to come around. It’s sort of a “prove yourself” situation. If Palmer has a good game, great, put him in next week. Until then, you have to avoid the crushing performance like last week. Also, the Titan defense accounted for two interceptions and seven sacks last week against Jacksonville. They are a force and it’s not worth it to risk starting Palmer just yet.

Reggie Bush (@ Reskins) – Look, there’s not much I can say to make you bench Bush after last week’s performance. I get that. Unfortunately, I’ll have to do a Hurricane Ike impersonation and rain on your parade. It’s somewhat baffling to hear how many seem to think Bush had a “breakout” game. In actuality, it was just further evidence that he is a fine weapon, but not a good running back. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry, which is actually slightly under his career average. He also got fewer carries than supposed backup Pierre Thomas (Thomas also did better per carry). Yes, the receiving stats are great, but they can’t come consistently. Teams can do a better job gameplanning to contain Bush’s receiving numbers which leads to an inordinate number of worthless games. He will look studly one week, and then nonexistent the next. It’s been his modus operandi since he first entered the NFL.

Rookie Running Back Analysis

Darren McFadden – Nine carries, 46 yards (5.1 YPC) 0 TD, one reception, 11 receiving yards: And apparently an injury in there as well? Despite the efficient numbers, I remain somewhat cool to what he brings to the table. Don’t get me wrong, he’s certainly got some talent, he just doesn’t strike me as the game breaking type. That could change, but I will say the jury is still out here. We need to see 15 carries from him.
Trending – No Change

Jonathan Stewart – Ten carries, 53 yards (5.3 YPC) 0 TDs, 0 receptions: Stewart played well, but as I suspected, Coach John Fox relied more heavily on DeAngelo Williams (18 carries, 86 yards). Still, Stewart was better in the yard per carry area, which is worth noting. I still believe Williams will see at least 60 per cent of the total carries this season, but Stewart’s play did encourage me as to his dynasty value.
Trending – Flat in redraft, slightly up in dynasty

Felix Jones – Nine carries, 62 yards (6.9 YPC), one TD, 0 receptions: Obviously, the injury to Marion Barber opened the door for Jones and his impact was definitely impressive. Where he was non-existent in the preseason, he ran with authority on Sunday. We’ll see how Barber comes back, but Jones is looking like something of a steal now.
Trending – Up

Rashard Mendenhall: Ten carries, 28 yards (2.8 YPC) 0 TD, 0 receptions: I will admit I didn’t see much of this game aside from the Fast Willie Parker highlights. I assume Mendenhall was running the short yardage plays (although he only got one first down, so maybe not?), but even then, the stats were kind of bland. Mendenhall’s long-term value is up in the air, but it’s clear FWP will get the carries while healthy.
Trending – Down

Chris Johnson – 15 carries, 93 yards (6.2 YPC) one TD (receiving), three receptions, 34 receiving yards: As suspected, Johnson brings a spark to the Titan offense that no other player does (including a healthy and sane Vince Young). LenDale White was unimpressive and Johnson took full advantage. The only negative was the injury suffered, which was reportedly just a cramp. Still, you don’t want him to turn into a Chris “Injured by Halftime” Brown type guy.
Trending – Up, up, and away.

Matt Forte – 23 carries, 123 yards (5.3 YPC), one TD, three receptions, 18 yards: Well, clearly I should have trusted my initial thoughts on Forte. His lackluster preseason scared me off in one league and I’m kind of kicking myself now. He looked really strong as everyone surely saw. I do think the Colt run defense will be terrible this year, but Forte will get a ton of carries. I doubt I can add much to what everyone knows here.
Trending – Up…very up

Ray Rice – 22 carries, 64 yards (2.9 YPC) 0 TD, three receptions, 19 receiving yards (one lost fumble): Well then. That went pretty crappy. The complete lack of efficiency is trouble. Also, the yards-per-reception didn’t improve much from the preseason which may mean he can’t capitalize in open spaces. Obviously, one game is a small sample size (I should say that about every player here), but clearly, Rice’s value is down and the Ravens will have to rush Willis McGahee back.
Trending – Down

Kevin Smith – 16 carries, 48 yards (3.0 YPC), one TD, four receptions, 32 receiving yards: This was a disappointing game overall from Smith. The touchdown is nice and all, but might he be more of a sell-high player because of it? The YPC is bad and 16 carries against a Falcon rush defense that was 26th in rush yards and 20th in yards per carry last season should result in better stats. Colour me worried. Four receptions is the lone bright spot since Jon Kitna likes to dump it off.
Trending – Down

Steve Slaton – 13 carries, 43 yards (3.3 YPC), 0 TD, three receptions, six receiving yards: Eh, I don’t know how many people were expecting much, but Slaton definitely didn’t impress. Still, the Steeler defense is usually stout, so maybe we should refrain from passing judgment just yet.
Trending – Flat (I’ll be nice, here)

Jamaal Charles – Five carries, 28 yards (5.6 YPC), 0 TD, two receptions, six receiving yards: I’d just like to point out Charles ran better than Larry Johnson (again, small sample size) and dynasty leaguers should probably take notice now. Charles is the heir and LJ could be out, Shaun Alexander style, sooner than many expect. Just food for thought.
Trending – Up