We continue to roll out the RotoRob 2008 NFL Draft Kit, today with Andy weighing in with his own brand of enlightenment.

As is often the case, the value of players a few months ago (you know, when the magazines came out) have changed drastically since. Remember Frank Gore in 2006? Early in the preseason, he was a decent sleeper behind Kevan Barlow. Then Barlow was shipped out and, by most drafts, Gore was a bona fide Round Three player. Those that knew it probably did very well as Gore finished in the top five. That doesn’t happen every season, but there are always some value changers. Let’s look at three up and three down.

Quarterback Gainer - J.T. O’Sullivan: On the surface, being named the starting quarterback for a team that finished dead last in passing and points the previous season is, well, yawn-inducing. The difference this year is that O’Sullivan is running a Mike Martz offense. Martz has propelled Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, and, most importantly, Jon Kitna to fantasy worthy seasons. Sure, the Rams were loaded with offensive talent, but the fact that Kitna turned into a 4,000-yard passer with one good wide out and nothing else, that’s what bodes well for O’Sullivan. So far in the preseason, he’s got a 91.9 quarterback ranking and is averaging and impressive 10.6 yards per attempt (Brady was at 8.3 last year). Yes, it’s the preseason, but if you’re in a deep league and can afford three quarterbacks, O’Sullivan is a great late round sleeper.

Quarterback Faller - Matt Hasselbeck: I approach this pick with trepidation. I’ve tried to put Hasselbeck out to pasture a couple times, and it always ends poorly for me. That being said, his already weak wide out corps took a big hit with Bobby Engram’s injury. That leaves Nate Burleson and an injured Deion Branch as the top options. The running game will still be weak and Hasselbeck is fighting a stiff back himself. If he finishes as a top 10 quarterback this season, I’ll never call him a bust ever again.

Running Back Gainer - Chris Johnson: It seems as though all of the rookie backs have shown some flashes this preseason, but Johnson has made more inroads to the starting position than any other freshman (other than Matt Forte, who has been given the starting job due to lack of competition). I’m convinced Johnson will start the season getting about 40 per cent of the touches in Tennessee. His game is much more dynamic than LenDale White’s so he’ll have every chance to take the torch and run with it. Really fast with it.

Running Back Faller - Jonathan Stewart: Before any pre-season games were played, the hype around Stewart was off the charts. He certainly wouldn’t have any problem wrestling away the starting job in Carolina. Well, not so fast. DeAngelo Williams has looked strong, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Stewart, meanwhile, has been fighting injuries and inconsistency. He has managed only three yards on four carries, which is as not good as it sounds. Couple that with John Fox’s penchant for going with veterans and Stewart is nothing more than a handcuff for Williams.

Wide Receiver Gainer - Robert Meachem: When Meachem came into the league, some thought he would have the most NFL success of the wide outs in his draft class. That may not be true with Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe establishing themselves as future studs, but Meachem will be a fantasy factor this season. He has 140 yards this preseason and has impressed his coaches. Yes, he’s the fourth option, at best, in New Orleans’ stacked offense, but that may not be a bad thing. The Saints had the most pass attempts in the league last season and Meachem will be facing single coverage all season. Right now, he’s a deep sleeper with a ton of upside.

Wide Receiver Faller - Joey Galloway: Injuries, injuries, and more injuries. Galloway has been “close to returning” all preseason, but it never seems to happen. The dude is kind of old, and I’m ready to call his career over. Sure, he’ll hang around and you’ll forget he’s still in the legue for a bit, but anyone who drafts him this season will be fairly upset about it in a few weeks.

August 23rd, 2008
Categories: 2008 NFL Draft Kit, Andy Goldstein, FOOTBALL . Author: Andy Goldstein . Comments: 5 Comments

Derek recommends a healthy plate of pancakes prior to your draft.

And we’re back, with more of the 2008 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit, with Derek providing ten tips to help you make it through draft day.

Want to wear the proverbial brass ring once the dust settles after the 2008 fantasy football season? Follow these tips and you’ll be headed to the promise land…or at least somewhere nearby.

1. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail: Former UCLA basketball coach John Wooden is a bona fide genius and heeding his advice is a wise manoeuvre. Prepare yourself for battle. Mock drafts are all over the Internet and readily accessible. Go into a draft and target what players you want. Another preparation tool is setting up tiers for players at each position. For example, a grouping of the top five quarterbacks might be called gold or franchise. Meanwhile, the next five may be called second string. Whatever the name designation, it will prevent a foolish move such as taking Larry Johnson with the second pick overall. Utilizing tiering or examining ADP (average draft position) is a good way to get mentally prepared prior to the big day.

While all of these forms of preparation are fantastic; the sure fire way to ensure victory is by purchasing the Fantasy Football Guide 2008. I know, I know. Hey, if T.O. and Chad Johnson self-promote, why can’t I?

2. Feed the machine: If Michael Phelps taught us anything, it’s that great performance comes from substantial eating. Whether it’s at the draft site or beforehand at home, load up on the good stuff. Pancakes, eggs and bacon prior to an afternoon appointment; pizza and pasta are the go-to-guys prior to a night time draft. Perhaps 12,000 calories is overdoing it but you get the point. A legendary performance can only exist if an equally awesome pre-game appetite is quenched.

3. Bring more than one magazine: It never fails. Another owner will enter the draft without a magazine or with some ragtag collection of printouts. He will blame his girlfriend, wife, mailman or job. Instead of being a night in shining armor, hold your counterpart accountable for his transgression.

Don’t hand over a magazine to a fellow competitor. Bringing another magazine may provide another perspective or have it on hand just in case one magazine lacks in one area versus another. Unless you are a kind and gentle soul that listens to Sting and Bruce Hornsby, don’t be so kind of draft day.

4. Don’t pin your hopes on the franchise: What do LaDainian Tomlinson, Tom Brady, and Randy Moss all have in common besides owning NFL single season records? While this year potentially they could all be first round choices, in season’s past they’ve let you down during money time.

Despite throwing 50 touchdowns (23 scoring tosses going to Moss) last season, Brady’s Week 15 stat line (14-of-27, 140 yards, 0 TDs, INT) was a horror show for his owners. Moss clearly didn’t benefit from Brady’s sole statistical setback with five catches for 79 yards. Those performances certainly did not help owners advance in the fantasy playoffs. Meanwhile, Tomlinson faltered down the stretch in 2005 which likely doomed many of his owners.

The lesson is to never put all of your eggs in one basket and mindlessly go through the rest of a draft. Building depth at all positions can never be taken for granted. Once crunch time arrives in the fantasy playoffs, having another solid performer or two will help you survive a superstar’s off day.

5. Don’t fall for fool’s gold: Just because a player does well and wins Super Bowl MVP does not mean they will explode in the following season. Deion Branch, anyone? This year is no exception. Eli Manning’s schedule is Charmin-like during the first six weeks, but don’t reach for Peyton’s little brother too soon.

The Giants will not all of a sudden adopt a New England-esque approach with the passing game and one of his top targets, Plaxico Burress, is still battling ankle problems from a season ago.

6. To beer or not to beer, that is the question: Draft day is serious business. Not to sound like your mother, but drinking is highly dangerous if you have any designs on winning the league. Remember, only the strong survive in fantasy football. Put that brew down and sub in a water or soda. Better yet, pass the brewski down to your enemy and let him drink it. [Editor's note: RotoRob says drinking enough beer to stop shaking from the night before is okay; but you must still be capable of operating heavy machinery.]

7. Think outside the box: Stud running backs are slowly becoming extinct. Teams using running back by committee continue to increase season by season. Last year, only 17 backs ran for at least 1,000 yards versus 23 in 2000. Coaches are beginning to finally understand that over usage of backs is not only a bad thing, but can alter your franchise for some time.

Towards the back end of the first round, don’t be afraid to grab a receiver or even a quarterback.

8. A Cold Day In Fantasy Hell: November and December are often tricky months for fantasy owners because weather can play such an unpredictable role in games. Week 15’s Jets-Patriots game saw driving winds that greatly altered the success of New England’s passing game which lead to Brady’s only game of the season with no touchdown passes. Heavy snow blanketed Cleveland during the same week which led to an 8-0 contest between the Browns and Bills. Poor stat outputs in these games helped end the post-season dreams for many fantasy owners.

Don’t ignore weather issues — especially at quarterback. Brady, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Derek Anderson and Ben Roethlisberger are quarterbacks whose performances may be affected down the stretch because of inclement weather.

9. Kickers: Don’t ever take a kicker before a double digit round. Ideally, wait until the last couple of rounds to deal with one. Owners pass on talented players every year to take the Adam Vinatieris of the world. Who could have more of an impact on your team — an extra back or receiver, or a guy who didn’t kick a field goal of longer than 40 yards last season?

A couple of seasons ago, I saw an owner take David Akers in the eighth round. That’s just embarrassingly too high for a kicker.

10. Decompress: After browbeating owners with a great draft, sit back and enjoy life. Take some time to get away mentally from the mess. Andy, for one, watches The Hills religiously on Monday nights. While a bit misguided, it helps clear the mind. I’ll typically opt for an early season episode of 24 or the always epic Season Two of Miami Vice. Seriously, the Definitely Miami episode featuring Ted Nugent is required television viewing.

Now, make like James “Sonny” Crockett and seize the day by overcoming your draft day foes…without using excessive violence, naturally.

August 22nd, 2008
Categories: 2008 NFL Draft Kit, Derek Jones, FOOTBALL . Author: Derek Jones . Comments: 8 Comments

We continue to roll out the 2008 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit, today getting into the real meat of the kit — cheat sheets!

I can safely say that these cheat sheets are the ultimate draft tool for every single reader, no matter the draft type or scoring system.

This is due, mainly, to the fact that our cheat sheets are completely customizable. If you think our rankings are “idiotic,” no worries, just alter them to your preferences. All the info is there for you to stay on top of any variable that gets thrown your way during the draft. Anyway, here’s a little explanation of the info we have provided.

Ranking - Derek Jones and I compiled a combined ranking list for each position. Some go against the popular opinion and some fall in line with them. For reasoning behind our rankings, you can actually go to Barnes & Noble or Borders and pick up the Fantasy Football Guide 2008 magazine (LT is on the cover holding the American flag over his head). Derek and I wrote the quarterback, running back, kicker, and defense rankings for that publication and I’d like to be modest, but frankly it’s awesome stuff. We’ll be discussing the magazine in greater detail later in the week.

Value - We realize our rankings don’t always align with the fantasy football brain trust at large. That’s okay. We give you an approximation of where players stand in general fantasy circles. This is done by combining many magazine rankings and is a good estimation of a player’s standing.

Tier - The difference between, say, LaDainian Tomlinson (we have at No. 2) and Steven Jackson (No. 3 on our list) is much different than the difference between Jackson and Brian Westbrook (who we have at No. 4). Knowing a player’s worth compared to his peers is important when considering which position to target when. If you take a tier three wide out when five are available but just one tier three back remains on the table, it could very well be a mistake. Just note that our tiers are determined within our personal rankings. When/if you change up the cheat sheets for yourself, be sure to fiddle around with the tiers as well.

ADP (10 Team) & ADP (12 Team) - This is another way to look at a player’s value. Average Draft Position should be a good gauge of when to take a player. This is denoted by (Round.Pick) so ‘2.07′ means ’second round, seventh pick of the round’ in case you were wondering.

Auction - Approximate auction price assuming cap space and roster restrictions aren’t an issue. This means that, essentially, it’s the price we’d pay for the player if he were the first one nominated during the draft. Because auction rounds are free form, any player can be nominated at any point. When caps start dwindling and some owners fill roster spots, the values of players nominated later can change greatly. Knowing the estimated auction value of players is immensely important when looking for late steals and for avoiding bad buys.

Finally, the spreadsheets include endless space for you to add notes, song lyrics, funny insults you think up, etc. As I said, cheet sheets get no better than this. Now, all we need to do is set up the contract of what percentage of your winnings come to me. Wait, that’s not part of the deal? Crap.

Quarterbacks (.xls)
Running Backs (.xls)
Wide Receivers (.xls)

August 13th, 2008
Categories: 2008 NFL Draft Kit, Andy Goldstein, Cheat sheets, Derek Jones, FOOTBALL . Author: Andy Goldstein . Comments: 3 Comments

If fantasy owners were Superman, this is what Coach Shanahan is to them thanks to the way he handles running backs.

As we continue to roll out the RotoRob 2008 NFL Draft Kit, Derek delivers his sleeper and bust picks. Andy already weighed in with his own sleepers and busts on Tuesday, an article that generated some debate. Do you guys agree with Derek’s picks? Let us know.

QUARTERBACK

Sleeper – Matt Schaub: During his first season as a starter, Schaub showed glimpses of being a promising quarterback. He only fired nine touchdown passes in 11 games, but was limited by injuries in two of those contests. Schaub will feel more comfortable in year two with the Texans and if he has a healthy Andre Johnson, look out. Johnson stretches the field for Houston’s passing game and when he was out of the lineup last season, he was sorely missed. Schaub’s success will largely be tied to Johnson’s health thanks to a lack of solid depth at receiver for Houston, but a 20-plus touchdown season is not out of the question for him.

Bust - Derek Anderson: The 2007 campaign was a tale of two different seasons for Anderson. Through the first eight games, he averaged 263 yards per game; over the last eight, he tallied 209 yards per contest. Anderson’s touchdowns dipped and his interceptions climbed as well during the second half. Teams will be ready for Anderson in ’08. Despite being armed with a good set of weapons at receiver with Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow, Jr., teams will not be fooled by Anderson’s success. The third-year pro will find it difficult to replicate his solid ’07 campaign that included 29 touchdown passes. The addition of Donte Stallworth sounds like a novel concept, but he is more flash than substance. Furthermore, games early on against the Cowboys, Steelers, Ravens, Giants and Jags will test Anderson’s mettle.

RUNNING BACK

Sleeper – Selvin Young: With all due respect to New Orleans’ Pierre Thomas, the nod goes to Young. Travis Henry is gone and rookieRyan Torain is going to miss at least six weeks with a broken elbow, leaving Young as the primary starter for the Broncos. As a rookie, it may be hard for Torain to get into the flow of things right away which should give Young an advantage. Granted, Coach Mike Shanahan is to fantasy football what kryptonite is to Superman. Shanahan has played around with back combinations the last few seasons since dealing Clinton Portis. However, Young should see plenty of time on the field because of Denver’s current situation. He averaged a solid 5.2 yards per carry last season on 140 attempts, but he only scored one touchdown. Look for his yards and touchdowns to jump up in 2008.

Bust - Willis McGahee: Like sour milk or stale bread, something isn’t quite right with the Raven offense at the moment. On second thought, that has been the case since they began in Baltimore. While everyone lauds the practice play of rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, he probably will not begin the season as the starter. Kyle Boller may get the nod and that will not do McGahee any favors. Perhaps the most glaring omission from the Ravens in ’08 will be at left tackle after the retirement of future Hall of Famer Jonathan Ogden. Great left tackles in football are not easy to come by and replacing them is an even more difficult chore. Undoubtedly, Ogden’s departure will affect McGahee. Another issue for the former Miami Hurricane is his health. McGahee is suffering from an ailing left knee and, with his history of knee problems, that’s not a good trend for ’08.

WIDE RECEIVER

Sleeper – Anthony Gonzalez: One of the biggest question marks entering this season for Indy surrounds Marvin Harrison. He is returning from a knee injury that sidelined him for much of ’07. While he is coming back, things may not be quite the same in the land of milk and Peyton. Reggie Wayne has emerged as the team’s top receiver and Gonzalez is poised to become a legitimate number two threat. He only compiled three touchdown receptions last season, but showed flashes that give Colt fans hope that there is plenty of life after Harrison. During Gonzalez’s final six games, he put up a pair of 100-yard performances and pulled in four touchdowns. He has already built a relationship with Manning on the field which will serve him well.

Bust - Greg Jennings: With each passing day, I’m becoming more and more convinced that this whole Aaron Rodgers thing isn’t going to work out. Rodgers has the pressure of the world on his shoulders and he will not be well equipped to handle it. Whether a quarterback sits for three seasons and watches Brett Favre or Babe Laufenberg, it makes little difference. At the end of the day, the quarterback must have the tools to get it done on the field. Rodgers is going to struggle in his first season and Jennings will be one whose numbers suffer. He caught 12 touchdowns last season and while he only compiled 920 yards receiving, the third-year receiver averaged 17.4 yards per game, a team best. Those numbers will come down with a signal caller that is as green as the jersey on his back.

August 7th, 2008
Categories: 2008 NFL Draft Kit, Derek Jones, FOOTBALL . Author: Derek Jones . Comments: 4 Comments

For our 2008 NFL Draft Kit, we’ve got a bunch of stuff planned to get y’all ready for the upcoming season. Without giving too much away, we’re going to get you the best customizable cheat sheets in the history of the world. But that will happen in a little bit. For now, here’s my list of sleepers and busts. One each per position. Enjoy.

QUARTERBACK

Sleeper – Matt Leinart - Yes, we all know that Leinart might get two starts and then be yanked in favour of Kurt Warner. He might be ineffective and he’s had injury issues in his brief NFL career. I don’t care. Look at the upside! He has two uber talented wide outs to throw to, a lousy run game that won’t take away many yards or scores, and a team that will be in plenty of shootouts. Right now, Leinart’s ADP is after the tenth round. He is, on average, the 19th quarterback taken in drafts, and that may be entirely justified. Ahead of him are guys like Eli Manning and Jon Kitna. Leinart can outperform both by wide margins for a much lower price.

Bust - Jay Cutler - Many prognosticators have been falling over themselves to call Cutler the next big thing at quarterback. He progressed well last season and developed a great rapport with studly wide out Brandon Marshall. But that’s kind of the problem. Marshall has already been suspended for two or three games (depending on behaviour) and he still has outstanding legal issues which could cause further suspensions. On top of this, Marshall tore his arm up in the offseason while wrestling with a sibling. Cutler has other options, namely tight end Tony Scheffler (the Scheff!) and the surprisingly still only 29 year old Darrell Jackson (sleeper alert!), but those two can’t combine to be the force that Marshall was. Cutler still shouldn’t be relied on as a starter, and I prefer my backups to have that potential.

RUNNING BACK

Sleeper – Earnest Graham - Few times in my fantasy football prognostication career have I been as mystified about a certain player’s pre-season ranking as I have with Graham’s. Experts seem to be down on his ability to hold off Carnell Williams and Warrick Dunn for 20 carries a game. Say what? Williams has been resting on his laurels since Week Three of his rookie campaign. Dunn is 52 years old* and couldn’t quite reach that lofty goal of 3.3 yards per carry last season. Graham, meanwhile, was one of the top running backs in the league over the second half of the season. I had to emphasize that because I think everyone forgot about it. He’s falling to the fourth round in 12-team leagues and is being taken as the 20th-ranked back, which means you can take him in the third round and laugh and laugh and laugh.

* Age estimated from scientific evidence.

Bust - Joseph Addai - This might seem silly, but when I take a guy in the first round of my fantasy draft, I want him to be the focal point of the offense. I want everything to be about him. Even mid-first rounders like Frank Gore, Tom Brady, Marshawn Lynch, and Clinton Portis are their respective offenses. Sure, secondary options like Addai can have success, but consistency becomes an issue. When Peyton Manning and the Colt passing offense is rolling, Addai can get lost in the shuffle. That, along with injuries (which might still be an issue if the silly Hall of Fame game means anything) conspired to give the Colt back nine games of sub-75 yards rushing. Addai is, at best, a late first rounder, which means he’ll never end up on my team.

WIDE RECEIVER

Sleeper - Chris Chambers - Okay, okay, okay. I know. He’s been in the league for seven seasons and he’s had only one worthy fantasy season. But his best quarterback for six and a half years was Jay Fiedler. It’s really not his fault. In seven starts with Philip Rivers, Chambers averaged 63 yards per game and almost a half a score per game. Those aren’t all-world numbers, but extrapolate them over 16 games, and you’re looking at a 1,000-yard, eight-score season, which should be good enough to make him worth a second wide out spot.

Bust – Wes Welker - Look, Welker is a nice enough wide out. He’s fast. He can find the soft spot in a zone, especially when no one even tries to cover him. But aren’t we getting a little carried away here? He’s the 13th wide out going off the board, which is absolutely nuts. He is still a slot receiver. Defenses will adapt to the Patriot passing strategies, which often left Welker alone over the middle of the field. There will be plenty of linebackers just waiting to give Welker a little payback. Last year was an awesome campaign for the diminutive wide out, but it was clearly a career season, so don’t expect many 100-yard games, don’t expect ten scores and definitely don’t expect 100 receptions.

August 5th, 2008
Categories: 2008 NFL Draft Kit, Andy Goldstein, FOOTBALL . Author: Andy Goldstein . Comments: 10 Comments