Carlos Villanueva, a pitcher many considered to be a sleeper heading into this season, has been a big time flop, notwithstanding a victory in his most recent start. In fairness, he’s been matched up against some tough competition, facing seven straight Opening Day starters. But that doesn’t explain away his dramatically reduced K rate, much more hittable stuff and propensity for coughing up the long ball. Despite much improved control, Villanueva’s ERA of 6.00 makes him a complete non-asset at this time. I’d watch him in NL-only leagues, because he’s certainly someone we’ve identified in the past as having great potential should he be given an extended look in the Milwaukee rotation. Well, he’s getting that look now, and so far, we don’t like the view.

Jonathan Sanchez has shown nice improvement this season, but he’s been hitting the skids his last couple of times out, giving up ten hits, ten runs, two homers and eight walks in just 8 2/3 innings. I like his upside, and the fact that he’s doing a better job of limited the homers this year, but you’ll need to sit him on your bench for now. For the less patient among you, it may be time to start exploring other options.

With Clay Buchholz landing on the DL, Boston opted not to bring up another starter – yet. J.D. Drew and Coco Crisp are both hurt, so a more immediate need was an outfielder, hence the summoning of Jonathan Van Emery to fill Buchholz’s roster spot. Boston had an off day Thursday, so Josh Beckett will be able to fill Buchholz’s scheduled start Sunday pitching on normal rest. But come next week, we may be ready to see Bartolo Colon. Judging by the one hit he allowed over six shutout innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Thursday, I’d say Colon is ready to stake his claim on Buchholz’s rotation spot in Beantown.

Beckett, meanwhile, will be looking to rebound from the beating he took in B-More on Tuesday. He gave up 11 hits – the most surrendered by any Red Sox starter this year – and five runs in just 5 2/3 IP as he absorbed the loss. Beckett got slapped around in his first start off the DL, but then seemed to get into a groove. This month, however, he’s been inconsistent, throwing one middling game, one gem, and one stinker. Let’s see how he fares Sunday against Milwaukee, a team that has pounded him twice in the past three years.

Speaking of aces coming off rough outings, let’s see how Adam Wainwright bounces back Saturday after taking a serious beat down on Monday. He had been remarkable steady up to the point, so I doubt there’s much reason to think of that start as anything but an anomaly. With a 2.95 ERA and the fourth-best WHIP in the NL, Wainwright is in the early stages of a season that could culminate in Cy Young consideration.

Yet another starter who’s really been grooving this year, yet is coming off his worst start of the season is Florida’s Mark Hendrickson. He’s been receiving surprisingly little love this year, yet he’s been splendid, and has really revitalized his sagging career with the Marlins. If you’re seeking strikeouts, look elsewhere, but if you need wins, he can help. He’s already surpassed his total from last year, and this pace — especially with the Marlins rolling as they are — should easily topple his career high of 11 wins, set with the Rays back in 2005.

One starter who’s been rather consistent this season, but is likely frustrating his owners by his lack of wins is Aaron Harang. He’s quietly just gotten better and better as his career has progressed, but despite a solid effort this year (.240 BA with good control), he had just one win to show for his first eight starts. Perhaps the tides are turning for Harang. On Monday, despite not having his best stuff (he gave up a season-high three dingers), he earned the win as Cincy finally gave him some serious run support with eight tallies. That snaps a four-game losing skid.

After a rough start to the year, Roy Oswalt has settled down in a big way. In his last six starts, he’s gone 4-0, giving up just 33 hits and 16 earned runs in 41 IP while fanning 36 and walking 13. The homers allowed concern me, but on the promising side of things, Oswalt’s control has improved after slipping last year, and after three straight seasons of decline, his K/9 rate has risen back up. His ERA is still high (5.05) because of that early-season hole, but expect that to get back to the low 3s in short order.

It looks like Brad Penny is not going to be able to build on last season’s career year. After a decent April, the wheels have come off in May (10.34 ERA). His last two starts in particular have been ugly, with 19 hits and 15 runs allowed in 10 2/3 IP. Penny is still getting the wins, with five already, but his K/9 has dropped to the point where it’s unacceptable for a fantasy starter. That’s why we’ve seen him showing up on the wire in more shallow leagues. The fact that in recent years he’s been a much better first half pitcher makes me even more scared.

Jason Kendall is doing better this season, but I’d hardly call it a renaissance, so I’ll want to see more before recommending him as an option in anything but an NL-only league or as a backup in a deeper mixed league. A return to the NL has given him a lift, but he’s simply not the same player he was in Pittsburgh. And with his 34th birthday coming up next month and catchers generally fading offensively fairly early in their careers, I’m tempering my expectations that Kendall will ever again approach the lofty numbers he put up earlier in his career.

May 16th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: No Comments

Ian Kennedy, who flamed out with the Yanks and was farmed out, is getting another chance. He’s been recalled to start Thursday afternoon against the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (how weird is it to type that?). Kennedy didn’t waste any time getting his act together in Triple-A, tossing a superb 7 1/3 innings of one-hit, shutout ball with eight strikeouts and no walks in his first start. Monday, he started the first game of the doubleheader, but threw only one shutout frame before calling it a day, in anticipation of this start Thursday. The Yankees are scuffling, but aren’t in too big a hole yet. Salvaging a split against the Rays would be a good start, so there’s a lot of pressure on Kennedy. His control is obviously back, and assuming he has regained his confidence, hell play a very large part in whether or not this team is headed back to the postseason for a 14th consecutive season.

If Kennedy flops again, one name to keep an eye on is Steven White. The Yankees’ fourth rounder in 2003, White keeps improving his Triple-A numbers to the point where he’s sneaking onto the radar as someone who can help the big league team. Ranked by Baseball America as the fourth best prospect in the system in 2004, the 26-year-old slipped from the list the past few years, but his numbers this year are screaming out for attention. Smart owners will listen, as White has won his last three starts and is 4-1, 2.66 overall, with 35 Ks in 47 1/3 IP. I think he’s ready to at least get an audition, and given the holes in the Yanks’ rotation, that may be coming soon.

Another Yankee farmhand who is showing progress this season is outfielder Brett Gardner, the team’s third round pick in 2005. Gardner had an excellent season at Double-A last year, but found the adjustment to Triple-A somewhat challenging after a mid-season promotion. This year, despite some recent struggles, he’s picked up the pace, batting .285 through 36 games and 130 at bats. Gardner has displayed nice extra-base pop, good strike zone judgment, patience and speed. The highest drafted player in the history of the College of Charleston, the 24-year-old Gardner is someone with strong top-of-the-order skills who could carve out a major league career once opportunity comes knocking.

Andrew McCutchen, who we ranked 17th among our top 35 prospects heading into the season, is having some challenges at Triple-A recently, batting just .205 over the past ten games with 14 strikeouts. Let’s bear in mind that he’s still only 21, and overall, I like the progress he’s shown this year, both in terms of on-base skills (20 walks in 39 games after walking just four times in 17 games in his first taste of Triple-A last year) and power (ten doubles, six homers and 19 RBI). This guy’s got speed, developing power and can hit for average. Expect to see McCutchen rise into the top 10 prospects for 2008, assuming he isn’t in Pittsburgh long enough this year to lose his rookie eligibility. Right now, the Buccos don’t have any room for him with all three of their starting outfielders playing well. And with the Pirates actually hanging around .500 still, there’s no reason to start the youth movement quite yet. McCutchen is definitely a name to tuck away for the second half, however.

Remember Scott Strickland? The former Expo spent six seasons in the bigs, recording a 3.34 ERA through 236 games. But he hasn’t appeared in a major league game since 2005 with Houston. Now in the Yankees’ organization, this 32-year-old reliever is pitching pretty well so far in 2008, going 2-0 with a 4.19 ERA and over a strikeout per inning. He’s held righties to a .220 BAA, so perhaps he can still help a major league bullpen.

Still with the Yankees’ Triple-A bullpen, veteran minor leaguer Scott Patterson is starting to figure out this level after some early-season struggles. The 28-year-old righty was dominant at Double-A in 2007, recording a 1.09 ERA with 91 strikeouts and just 15 walks and 45 hits allowed in 74 1/3 IP, earning his first career Triple-A appearance along the way. Well, he started sluggishly this year, but is coming around with seven straight appearances without an earned run allowed, lowering his season mark to 3.00 through 16 games. He’s got good control and is striking out one per inning, so perhaps he’ll be considered as a possible injury replacement on the Yanks should it be necessary.

Billy Traber, who made the team out of Spring Training as the Yankees’ left-handed reliever, has struggled somewhat since his demotion back to Triple-A last month. He actually wasn’t awful in New York, but wasn’t exactly dominating southpaws, so the team felt no need to keep him around. Since his return to the minors, Traber’s numbers aren’t good (4.91 ERA), but his peripherals are strong (six hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in 7 1/3 IP). This 28-year-old could get another shot in the Yankee pen later this season.

Here’s another name to track in the bullpen of the Yanks’ top affiliate – David Robertson. The team’s 17th round pick in 2006 dominated at Double-A, earning a quick promotion to Triple-A. Since taking a beating in his debut, Robertson has settled down with three straight scoreless outings, even earning his first Triple-A win in his last appearance. He’ll need to sharpen his control to get a chance in the bigs, but considering this righty is just 23, let’s cut him some slack as he adjusts to the higher level.

Finally, Steven Jackson is also pitching very well in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre bullpen. Arizona’s tenth round pick in 2004, Jackson came to the Yankee organization in the Randy Johnson trade last year. He began the year at Double-A, but has since been promoted to Triple-A, and although his overall numbers the two levels aren’t eye popping (4.50 ERA through 14 games), his peripherals suggest he’s pitching much better than that, with just 24 hits and eight walks allowed while he’s fanned 28 in 28 IP. He even chalked up his first Triple-A save earlier this week after picking up one in Double-A.

May 15th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Minor Matters, RotoRob, Transactional analysis . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 4 Comments

While neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees are getting strong overall performances from their respective rotations, it’s pretty clear that Boston has the edge here as we look forward to the remainder of the 2008 campaign.

Both teams are relying on youngsters to fill rotation spots, but in New York’s case, the youth movement is definitely having its hiccups, while for Boston, the results have been mixed.

For the Yanks, Phil Hughes was getting roughed up badly before landing on the DL. Ian Kennedy wasn’t much better before New York opted to send him down to work out his control issues. In Boston, Jon Lester’s peripherals are troubling, but his results to date have been acceptable. Clay Buchholz, the other young starter the team is relying on, has shown tremendous talent at times, but has also been bitch slapped far too often, especially recently (18 hits, 12 runs and six walks over 8 1/3 IP in his last two starts).

The difference here is that Boston has options. While the Yanks have brought in Darrell Rasner and Kei Igawa, the options for the Red Sox are much more palatable. In fairness, Rasner has done very well in his pair of starts, but I have my doubts about his ability to sustain this success over the long haul. Igawa, judging by his season debut, is definitely not the answer.

That leaves the Yankees desperate to get Hughes back and see Kennedy turn things around. I mean, let’s face it – bringing David Wells back, as one rumour suggested, reeks of desperation.

Boston, meanwhile, has a former Cy Young winner nearly ready to step in for their struggling youngster. Bartolo Colon has now recovered from his injury and is toiling in the Pawtucket rotation. Boston needs to promote him by June 1 or Colon can become a free agent. Now that Buchholz has been placed on the DL, expect to see Colon up much sooner than that. Colon takes the mound Thursday, so check on his outing, because he will soon be someone you need to target. If the fat man isn’t ready right away, Boston will likely bring up Justin Masterson to take Buchholz’s next scheduled start.

When Buchholz is eligible to come off the DL, meanwhile, will either be sent down to take Colon’s place at Pawtucket, or kept in Boston to work in long relief. And if the rookie can’t figure it out in the minors, Boston has a rehabbing Curt Schilling waiting in the wings to pitch in down the stretch. But that’s not something he’ll be ready to do until the later stages of the season.

The point is, while neither team is where it wants to be (Boston is sitting a half game behind the surprising Rays in the AL East, while the Yanks are under .500), the BoSox appear to have more legitimate options within the organization compared to the Yankees. And that, I’d suggest, will prove to be the key differentiator in the lastest chapter of this great rivalry.

May 14th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, RotoRob, Rumours . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 2 Comments

We’re going to bounce all over the map today, discussing some minor leaguers, some major leaguers, some Indy players and even some international players.

Nevin Ashley, the Rays’ sixth rounder in 2006, is struggling to adjust to High-A ball this season. The former First Team All-Missouri Valley Conference catcher is just 5-for-33 in his last ten games, and his OPS is a putrid 501 through 29 games. The 23-year-old enjoyed a productive season at A-ball in 2007, earning a spot on the mid-season South Atlantic League All-Star team, but his offensive progress has really stalled.

The Rays had to be breathing a big sigh of relief on Saturday when Scott Kazmir tossed six shutout frames at the Halos. Coming off an ugly season debut after starting the year on the DL, Kazmir was very sharp this weekend, limiting the Angels to just three hits and three walks, while fanning five. Next up, he’ll face the Yankees in Tampa Bay on Thursday, and with New York’s offense looking middling at best so far, Kazmir should definitely be activated. Recall that we rated the Ray ace as a top 15 pitcher prior to the season.

Back to the minors, I like what I’m seeing out of White Sox 2006 sixth round pick Brian Omogrosso at Double-A so far. The 24-year-old righty recovered nicely Friday, tossing three shutout frames after taking a beating in his first start of the month. He was injured earlier this season, so is still being babied with short outings and, through five starts, Omogrosso has been very tough on lefties (1.50 ERA), but I’m concerned about his command so far. A full-time starter in 2008 after being used as a swingman in High-A last season, Omogrosso will need to sharpen his command before he starts getting noticed as a legitimate prospect.

Third baseman Ronnie Prettyman, the Mariners’ tenth round pick in 2005, is struggling mightily at Double-A this season. While he had some injury issues last year, he earned a rapid promotion to Triple-A, and performed quite well. This season, however, Prettyman is back at Double-A, and not looking anywhere near ready to get back to Triple-A. He’s currently mired in a 1-for-14 skid and is batting just .205 over the past ten games. Overall, Prettyman is batting just .209 through 31 games and 110 at bats. He has scored 20 runs, but his 605 OPS is not going to cut the mustard. Already 26, Prettyman will need to turn his season around quickly or very soon will be written off as a future major league prospect.

It looks like the end of the line for former Diamondback farmhand Aric Leclaire. The 30-year-old southpaw, taken by Arizona in the 19th round in 2000, was released last month by the Camden Riversharks of the Independent Atlantic League. He hasn’t pitched in organized ball since 2004, so stick a fork in him.

If you’re seeking relief help in an NL-only league, take a peek at Mitch Stetter of the Brew Crew. The 27-year-old lefty had a control meltdown in his last outing, but with 15 Ks in just 11 1/3 IP, he’s got my attention, especially considering he’s the only southpaw in the Milwaukee bullpen.

In other NL bullpen news, reliever Joe Thatcher, hit hard in his last outing as his ERA rose to 6.75, has been farmed out by the Padres to make room for Bryan Corey, just acquired from the BoSox. Corey hasn’t pitched well this year, struggling with his command in limited action, but I’ve always liked his arm and wondered how he’d do if he could just get an extended look. Hopefully, a return to the NL and a pitching friendly park will be the tonic Corey needs to get going. Watch him.

Clint Barmes, who we highlighted in The Wire Troll last month, is still available on many wires, but you better move quick as he’s getting snapped up. He’s riding a six-game hit streak heading into action Tuesday and Barmes has really revitalized his career after bottoming out last season. I’d like to see him score more runs, but perhaps if he maintains that .330 BA and nice gap power, he’ll move up in the batting order over the struggling Yorvit Torrealba.

Remember Alex Graman? The Yankees’ third round pick in 1999 appeared in only five games for New York before winding up in Japan. He’s become a solid NPB closer, making me wonder if the 30-year-old lefty will generate any interest back home.

May 13th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 4 Comments

Crafty veteran Tim Wakefield wasn’t so crafty on Sunday. Wakefield’s knuckler was not quite knuckling enough, and the Red Sox fell to the Twins 9-8, losing for the second time in three tries against the Twins this weekend.

Wakefield only lasted 2 2/3 innings, giving up seven runs — six earned — raising his ERA on the season to 4.25. The Red Sox bats heated up briefly with one run in the third and three in the fourth, but the bullpen couldn’t hold the Twins in check, giving up runs in the fourth and the seventh innings. The Sox scored twice more in the seventh on Kevin Youkilis’ two run double, as the Youk-dog continued his torrid May similar to what he did last season. He’s batting .359 so far this month, with five doubles, six homers, ten runs, 14 RBI and six walks. It’ll do. Of course, the Greek God of Walks hit over .400 with six dingers last May, so he’s clearly a May man.

The BoSox entered the top of the ninth down three runs against the usually unhittable Joe Nathan and made some noise. They quickly collected three hits and scored two runs, but stranded the tying runner on base as Nathan was able to barely escape out of the inning for his 12th save of the season.

The win pushed the surprising Twins to 19-17 on the season, one game ahead of Cleveland for first in the AL Central, while the Sox fell to 24-16 with their lead over the Tampa Bay Rays shrinking to only 1.5 games. That’s right, the Rays. Seriously. I’m not joking. And it’s May.

Fantasy Factors

Youkilis has been putting on a rare display of power and production with an OPS of 1384 for the month and it looks like he might be on his way to becoming a top five fantasy first baseman. He went 2-for-5 on Sunday to raise his overall average to .319 on the season. Continue to ride Youkilis’ hot bat, but don’t be surprised if his power numbers start to level out as he is not typically known for the long ball (last season, he hit a career-best 16). May is clearly his month, so either start him on your team or sell him while his stock is high.

The real David Ortiz is finally starting to show up. After a dismal April in which he batted under the Mendoza Line at .198, Big Papi currently sits at .241 on the year, thanks to a .368 mark for the month of May. And to think Sox fans were worried! Ortiz currently has seven homers and 28 ribbies, and with his batting average still being lower than usual, you might be able to steal him from other owners. Big Papi just had a bad month, but trust me when I say…actually, when I guarantee…he will finish with 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI. Don’t say I didn’t tell you so when September comes around.

Wakefield finally put up a serious stinker. Prior to Sunday’s game, his worst outing was an eight inning performance in which he gave up five runs. Normally, he does very well in the Metrodome, heading in with a career mark of 7-3 with a 3.95 ERA. Owners shouldn’t be worried though, because from time to time the knucklers are going to get rocked. Half the time, they don’t even know where their pitch is going to end up. I wouldn’t start Wakefield unless you have a big time pitcher on the DL, in which case he is a nice fill in. Otherwise, his 27 Ks to 23 BB is not enough to make up for the fact that he’s a good source of Ws, likely headed for 15 wins on the season.

Joe Mauer is being outhomered by Ichiro Suzuki right now, 2-0. Now, that’s no knock on Ichiro as we all know he has some power, but the point is Mauer is batting in the three hole for the Twins and while he is hitting a superb .330, one would think he would have at least one dinger by now. He is sporting an excellent .409 OBP with a modest 15 RBI, and he went 1-for-4 again on Sunday, continuing a solid May. Mauer is one of the best catchers in the game, so obviously start him and hope he begins to mash a few home runs and produce some more RBI.

Craig Monroe went 2-for-4 with a grand slam in Sunday’s contest, raising his average to .284 on the year. Despite having a nice game, do not count on Monroe as he is a streaky hitter who is currently splitting time at DH for the Twins.

Justin Morneau’s average isn’t quite where we want it to be yet (.284), but he took a step in the right direction on Sunday, going 3-for-3 with a walk. Canada’s finest has a respectable six home runs on the season to go along with his 27 RBI, but has yet to go yard and has only produced five RBI so far this month . He is going to give you plenty of power, but unless he gets that batting average and OBP up a little bit, it might be worth looking at another option for first base.

Manny Ramirez, nursing a sore hammy, got the day off, but the fact that he pinch-hit in the ninth suggests he’ll be okay. Hopefully some down time with help ManRam redisover his early-season stroke. A 1-for-15 skid has him under .300 for the first time since April 15. Contract year, baby!

Mike Lamb enjoyed a nice weekend, going 5-for-9, but please remind me why the Twins signed this guy again? A 556 OPS? Uh, right. And the Twins actually believed this dude could be an everyday player.

With Manny sitting, Jacoby Ellsbury shifted over and handled left field. He took an 0-for-4, capping an ugly 1-for-12 weekend. The rook is playing, but not hitting particularly well so far this season. Coco Crisp, meanwhile, was in centrefield for the second straight day, and he went yard for the second straight game. He also tripled, stole a base and drove in three runs on Sunday. It’s about time to consider Crisp as a fantasy option, in AL-only leagues at the very least. He’s earned more PT, and if Ellsbury keeps flailing, Crisp will get it.

Matt Tolbert, an early season revelation, continues to struggle. He’s been playing second with Brendan Harris nursing a sore right hamstring, so Adam Everett has been manning short. But Everett hasn’t exactly taken his chance and run with it. He was 1-for-4 Sunday to get back to .200 on the year. Woo hoo! I’d say Tolbert needs not worry, about Everett at least.

Alex Cora returned from a DL stint because of his elbow. He’s been out almost a month, and got the start at short, lashing three hits, including a double. With Julio Lugo still dealing with the after effects of his concussion, and Jed Lowrie sent back to the minors, Cora could see some action this week.

Rookie Nick Blackburn earned the win for the Twins. He wasn’t overly sharp, giving up nine hits and four runs in six innings, but he walked just one and struck out five — his most in over a month. Blackburn is now over .500, but his ERA is approaching 4.00. He’s a decent option in deep AL-only leagues, but because of his lack of Ks, he’s best used in 4×4 leagues.

Mike Timlin appeared in his 1,032nd career game, moving him past Lee Smith and Jose Mesa into eighth place all-time. Unfortunately, after a solid 2007 campaign, the 42-year-old righty looks to be on his last legs, having giving up 16 hits and ten runs in nine innings this year. Start watching for a passing ice floe to toss the oldtimer onto.

May 12th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Daniel Olson, Game report, Uncategorized . Author: Daniel Olson . Comments: 2 Comments