American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X. National League Part I, II and III.

Cincinnati Reds

While they showed modest improvement under new manager Dusty Baker in 2008, there is plenty, and I mean plenty of room for more improvement for the Cincinnati Reds.

After all, despite a two-game improvement over 2007 fueled by an improved pitching staff, Cincy’s run of sub-.500 seasons has reached eight. To find the Reds’ last playoff appearance, you’ll have to go all the way back to 1995 (although the team did lose a one-game playoff for the Wild Card in 1999).

In looking at the numbers, there was no real strength in Cincinnati’s game, but at least the Reds were middling in stolen bases and quality starts, ranking ninth in each of those categories.

Brandon Phillips was unable to touch his breakout 2007 season (check out how pathetic his second half was), but he still topped 20 steals for the third straight season.

The real revelation for the 2008 Reds was Edison Volquez, whose breakthrough season was perfectly timed considering the man Cincy gave up to get him – Josh Hamilton – had a pretty damn fine season himself. Volquez had 20 quality starts among his 32 starts, establishing himself as a solid No. 2 starter behind “ace” Aaron Harang (who had an awful season). Just 25, Volquez looks like a future ace.

On the downside, the Reds were dead last in the NL in batting, which is about where they deserved to be after giving Corey Patterson almost 400 plate appearances. Fortunately, Patterson is no longer their problem.

Taking over for the departed Patterson in centre field will be Willy Taveras, signed to a two-year deal. This move somewhat addresses Cincy’s need for a right-handed hitting outfielder, but the club better hope Taveras bounces back from a nightmare 2008 season. Other righty outfielders who remain on the team’s radar include Jermaine Dye, Rocco Baldelli and Pat Burrell.

Cincy has also beefed up behind the plate, trading Ryan Freel and some minor leaguers for Ramon Hernandez.

The bullpen, a real strength last season, has been bolstered by the addition of veteran southpaw Arthur Rhodes, who is coming off his finest season in almost a decade.

Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn are gone, and as if this wasn’t already an offseason of change for the Reds, they are faced with an alarming nine free agents to deal with (one of which they have re-signed, one of which accepted arbitration, one of which has retired and two of whom have already been signed by other teams). Several of these players – especially among the bullpen – were key contributors in 2008.

It’s clear this team could use another solid stick in the batting order if it hopes to finally get back on the winning side of ledger. It’s pretty obvious neither Taveras nor Hernandez will provide the answer here, so unless the Reds have an ace up their sleeve, the offensive improvement will have to be organic. But with youngsters Joey Votto and Jay Bruce poised to take over more offensive responsibility, an improved lineup is a very realistic proposition.

Jeremy Affeldt, LHP: After enjoying a fine season as a LOOGY in 2007 with the Rox, Affeldt took the next step with the Reds, proving he was a valuable reliever capable of getting both lefties and righties out. He improved his control, chalked up the highest K rate of his career and parlayed it all into a two-year deal with the Giants.

Paul Bako, C: Bako wound up seeing more action than at any time since his rookie season way back in 1998, and actually had a pretty decent year – for him. Never known for his bat, Bako had career highs in runs, homers, RBI and walks. His reward? Another move, this time (probably) back to the Cubs with whom he spent the 2003 and 2004 seasons. He’s expected to sign a $500,000 deal to back up Geovany Soto, a job that should offer far less PT than Bako garnered in 2008.

Josh Fogg, RHP: Although he managed to up his K rate a tad, the fact that Fogg was battered harder than ever doomed him in 2008, and caused him to lose his rotation spot for a spell, before an injury finally put him out of his misery. After his strong season for the Rockies in 2007, Colorado may look to bring Fogg back on a minor league deal. Baltimore is another team that could use some help.

Jerry Hairston Jr., OF: Hairston missed a good chunk of the season with injuries, but was never better when he was in the lineup, showing a nice combination of gap power and speed. The Reds would like to re-sign him and install him in left field, especially if they can’t find a big RBI producer. If Cincy does manage to land a power hitting outfielder, Hairston will probably return to a utility role, assuming he re-signs.

Mike Lincoln, RHP: After having been out of the bigs since 2005, Lincoln made a strong return, acting as a workhorse set-up man out of a solid Cincy pen. The team rewarded him last month with a new two-year, $4 million deal.

Kent Mercker, LHP: A back injury limited Mercker to just 15 appearances, and although his peripherals were weak, his bottom line results were good. Last month, the 40-year-old lefty called it a day. He spent most of his career as a reliever, but did make a 150 starts and pitched 1,325 1/3 IP in total. Mercker won 74 games, saved 25 and compiled a lifetime 4.16 ERA.

Corey Patterson, OF: Patterson got plenty of chances in Cincy last season, and while he showed flashes of pop, his speed and average plummeted to the point where he was borderline useless for fantasy purposes. The fact that Patterson was given as much PT as he was speaks volumes about the state of the Reds’ offense in 2008. He could only garner a minor league deal from the Nats.

Javier Valentin, C: Valentin put up a decent season in a back-up role, but is not expected back in Cincy after he was non-tendered. He could be a good fit sharing catching duties in Toronto.

David Weathers, RHP: Ageless reliever Weathers turned in yet another fine season in the Red pen, although his walks were up a tad. He decided to take the Reds up on their offer of arbitration, so he’ll return for a sixth season in Cincy.

Next: We’ll travel over 1,000 miles west to check in on the Colorado Rockies’ offseason to date.

American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X. National League Part I and II.

Chicago Cubs

Having returned to post-season play in 2007, the Cubs looked hungry to take the next step in 2008, riding a dominating offense to an NL-leading 97 wins. The team appeared poised to deliver on Ryan Dempster’s pre-season call that they would win it all. However, if this team hopes to end a World Series victory drought that has now topped 100 years, first it’s going to have to win a playoff game. Two consecutive sweeps in the NLDS must have this team wondering what it needs to do to take it to the next level.

No one encapsulates the Cubs’ playoff failures the past two years more than Alfonso Soriano, who has gone a combined 3-for-28 in pulling his best Alex Rodriguez imitation.

But when it comes to the regular season, there’s been nothing wrong with the Cub attack. Last season, they paced the NL in scoring, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. Ryan Theriot took another step forward in his second season as a full-time player, scoring a career-best 85 runs and leading the team in hitting; Aramis Ramirez had another strong year at the plate, showing more patience than ever before; Jim Edmonds looked completely revitalized after arriving in a mid-season deal, slamming 19 homers in just 250 at bats with the Cubs; and despite once again missing a good chunk of the season to injury, Soriano was extremely productive when he was in the lineup.

The Cubs’ pitching staff was also pretty darned good in 2008, holding its opponents to the lowest BA in the NL. After arriving from the A’s in a mid-season deal, Rich Harden was particularly unhittable.

Team speed, however, was a weakness. Theriot paced the team with 22 swipes, but he stole 28 in 2007 despite 64 less plate appearances. This is an area the team has already address this offseason, penning free agent Joey Gathright, a speedster perhaps capable of stealing 40 bases if he could ever hold down a full-time job.

The Cubs will also be looking to beef up its bullpen this offseason. While the Kosuke Fukudome signing has yet to pay big dividends, the Cubs aren’t shying away from Japan, currently looking at a couple of veteran Japanese relief pitchers to help shore up the bullpen.

The Cubs are clearly committed to building a winner. But can they take it to the next level and break through to the NLCS? With a whopping eight free agents to deal with (although two have already re-signed, and two others have signed with other teams), there will be plenty of turnover this offseason as Chicago looks to reload to take another shot at breaking its more than century old World Series jinx.

Henry Blanco, C: Blanco erased the memories of a lost 2007 season, in which a litany of injuries limited him to 22 games during which he could barely hit his way out of a paper bag. The back-up catcher received more action last season, and responded with a career-best OBP as he bounced back nicely. Among the top back-up backstops in the game, Blanco has generated interest from the Marlins. Baltimore is also seeking a back-up catcher, but has yet to approach Blanco.

Ryan Dempster, RHP: Dempster made a surprisingly seamless and rather triumphant return to the rotation last season, enjoying a career year in which he finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting. He definitely did his part to back up his guaranteed World Series win. Accordingly, the Cubs wasted no time in re-signing the Canadian hurler to a four-year, $52-million deal last month.

Jim Edmonds, OF: It was definitely a tale of two seasons for Edmonds in 2008. Unable to get on base to save his life, he looked about as done as done can be over the first few weeks of the season in San Diego. In fact, after just 90 at bats, the Padres decided to eat his $6 million salary and release him. Signed by the Cubs, his patience returned and he looked better than he had since his career years with the Cardinals back in 2003-04. Now would be a great time for the veteran to pack it in, but considering how strong he was down the stretch, Edmonds would like to play another season. The Reds might have been a good fit until they landed Willy Taveras, so it’s unclear where Edmonds may land. He has expressed an interest in staying with the Cubs, for what it’s worth, but I don’t expect Chicago to bring him back.

Chad Fox, RHP: Fox made it back to the majors for the first time since 2005 after overcoming elbow woes. The team rewarded him by re-signing him to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. Odds are, he won’t make the team, even though you can’t help but root for a guy who has worked so hard to make it back.

Bob Howry, RHP: Howry suffered through his worst full-season ever, so it was not a shock that his workload was down – especially in the second half, when he was particularly rancid. Undeterred, the suddenly willing-to-throw-cash-around Giants penned him to a one-year, $2.75 million deal, gambling that he will return to being one of the game’s better set-up options.

Jon Lieber, RHP: Even pitching almost exclusively out of the bullpen, Lieber still couldn’t stay healthy in 2008, and it was only his strong command that enabled him to put up some decent results when he did pitch. Lieber has a lot to prove, so he’s the kind of pitcher who will likely land on a low-budget team willing to give him an inexpensive, but incentive-laden contract. Toronto, perhaps?

Daryle Ward, 1B: Brought in a couple of seasons ago to help beef up the bench, last season Ward was unable to duplicate his fine 2007 debut with the Cubs, with his numbers suffering almost across the board. Granted, an early-season back injury may have affected his power, but he was even worse in the second half. At this point, it’s possible Ward will have to settle for a minor league deal.

Kerry Wood, RHP: Wood stayed moderately healthy and enjoyed a fine season as the Cub closer, striking out batters at a higher rate than at any time since his landmark rookie season way back in 1998. Cleveland quickly pegged him as the answer to its closer woes, signing Wood to a two-year deal. The loss of Wood (and to a lesser extent Howry) means a weaker bullpen in Wrigley, something the team must address. Carlos Marmol will compete with newcomer Kevin Gregg for the closer job in 2009.

Next: We continue our tour of the Senior Circuit with a stop at another Central Division destination — Cincinnati.

Need to catch up on your reading? Find the rest of the report here:

American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X. National League Part I.

Atlanta Braves

Have the Atlanta Braves hit rock bottom, or could they sink even lower? It’s a legitimate question after they crashed and burned in 2008 and were then dissed by Rafael Furcal, who allegedly reneged on a free agent deal to return to his original club.

The Braves showed promise in 2007, winning 84 games, and after a 26-21 start in 2008 had them just a game and a half out in the NL East in late-May, the team seemed poised to make another run at the post season after missing out the previous two seasons.

But then the wheels came off and a simply horrific 33-57 run from May 23 to the end of August doomed the Braves to a third straight season out of the playoffs. The club rebounded somewhat in September (13-12), but by then, the die had long since been cast. The final tally of 72 wins represented Atlanta’s worst season since 1990 – the season before its historic run of consecutive playoff appearances began.

The offense was pretty good, finishing third in NL in both batting average and on-base percentage. Chipper Jones again couldn’t stay healthy, but he was fantastic when he was in the lineup, winning the NL batting title. Mark Teixeira was superb, but as an impending free agent, the Braves dealt him away to the Angels when it became clear they had fallen out of the race. In return, they got younger and cheaper in Casey Kotchman, and added a promising young arm in Steve Marek, who after a solid season at Double-A appears very close to being able to help shore up the Brave bullpen.

Speaking of the Altanta pen, it was generally solid, but suffered from being unable to find a dependable arm to finish off wins. Rafael Soriano got the first crack, but was lost for the season early thanks to surgery. Mike Gonzalez returned from Tommy John surgery in June, but the rust showed. He’ll likely be back to full strength in 2009, but the team’s top starter and highest paid player – Tim Hudson – will miss the entire season after his own TJS procedure.

With a whopping eight free agents to deal with (including Greg Norton, who has already been re-signed, and two others who have moved on), this team may need to take another step back before it can begin moving forward again. Fortunately, very few of them were key contributors in 2008, but regardless of the outcomes here, this team is sure to have a very new face in 2009 – especially among its pitching staff.

Elmer Dessens, RHP: After getting released by the Pirates (clue number one that you’re near rock bottom already), Dessens was signed by the Braves late in the season, and was rocked around in his four appearances. I assume we’ve seen that last of him as a major league pitcher.

Tom Glavine, LHP: The normally durable Glavine struggled with shoulder and elbow problems until finally undergoing season-ending surgery. Given his substandard results, it was pretty clear something was wrong from the get-go. He’s coming along in his rehab, but it’s unclear if Glavine plans to continue his career. If so, Boston might be a good match for the aging lefty, but at this point, there are plenty of questions surrounding Glavine’s future as a big leaguer.

Mike Hampton, LHP: Hampton finally made it back after three injury-filled years, but the rust sure showed, as he was very prone to surrendering the long ball. He signed a one-year deal with Houston earlier this month, returning to the place of his greatest successes. Will the Astros catch lightning in a bottle here? I doubt it.

Jorge Julio, RHP: Julio started the season with Cleveland, but his declining K rate soon had him getting DFAed. He landed in Atlanta, and pitched extremely well down the stretch. It was good enough for him to earn a one-year deal with the Brewers for $950,000.

Greg Norton, OF: Norton started the season with Seattle, but was dealt to the Braves early in the season, where he assumed his usual role as a middling pinch-hitter. Atlanta matched his 2007 salary — $800,000 – to keep the former Rockie in the fold.

Will Ohman, LHP: After a tough final season with the Cubs, Ohman rebounded nicely in Atlanta, showing the finest command of his career. Despite the current man crush baseball execs have on all left-handed relievers, he’s flying under the radar to an extent this offseason. But Ohman limited southpaw hitters to a .200 BA, proving he’s effective as a situational lefty. The Mets may look at him to help bolster their bullpen. Colorado was said to be interested, but now it appears the frontrunners for Ohman (besides the Mets) are the Rays, Indians, Orioles and Braves. Detroit could be a player here, too, but then again the Tigers have been linked to virtually every reliever on the market. Don’t count on St. Louis, either.

John Smoltz, RHP: Smoltz looked fantastic over his first five starts and then was shifted to the bullpen to fill the closer role. One appearance later, he needed season-ending shoulder surgery. Boston may take a gamble on Smoltz, who’s been rehabbing this offseason in anticipation of continuing his career.

Julian Tavarez, RHP: Tavarez bounced around in 2008, starting the season in Boston, where he was awful. He was DFAed, and elected to become a free agent, getting signed by the Brewers, for whom he showed better command, but suffered even worse results. Three weeks later, he was DFAed again, and again declined his option, ultimately winding up in Atlanta. Tavarez actually pitched pretty well with the Braves, chalking up better than a strikeout per inning as a set-up man. This, combined with some decent results in winter league action, should garner him some interest this offseason, but so far, I haven’t heard much about the high-strung righty.

NEXT: We’ll head north and check in on the defending NL Central Champion Chicago Cubs.

The established format was 12 teams, 23 rounds, 5X5 roto scoring that includes a full starting lineup made up of: one 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI and UT, two Cs, five OFs and nine pitchers. The draft order was predetermined and went as follows:

1. Todd Zola, Mastersball
2. Nate Stephens, Rotoworld
3. Alex Cushing, MLB.com
4. Scott Swanay, Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
5. Mike Kuchera, The Fantasy Man
6. Doug Anderson, RotoExperts
7. Brian Pelowski, Rotowire
8. Tim McLeod, RotoRob
9. Brandon Funston, Yahoo!
10. David Gonos, OPEN Sports
11. Chris McDonnell, FantasyBaseball.com
12. Nicholas Minnix, KFFL.com

My plan going in was to hope that Grady Sizemore fell to me with the eighth pick and then focus on building a solid power base at the corners and up the middle. In the event Sizemore was gone, I was going to target either Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Howard early and attempt to build a strong balanced offense, foregoing starting pitching until the middle rounds. A solid closer was a must this year with so much uncertainty in that category. Normally, I’m a huge proponent of securing stolen bases early and in abundance, but for this exercise I wanted to try a more balanced approach. With Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez sure to be gone by my pick, I didn’t want to be forced into one-dimensional speed later in the draft.

Round One – Ryan Howard, 1B: Grady and Miggy are gone, it’s time to get me the best pure power bat available, so Howard it was. The low batting average is a bit of a concern, but hopefully I can gain some of that back in the later rounds.

Round Two – Ian Kinsler, 2B: I was a bit surprised that Kinsler fell to me, but couldn’t pass on this opportunity. I don’t think that a 25-25 season is out of the question for Kinsler, with a .300 BA and at least 110 runs hitting in front of Josh Hamilton in Texas.

Round Three - Justin Morneau, 1B: I’ve now procured a second slugger at the corner in Morneau, and between him and Kinsler, I’ve managed to salvage my slow start in the batting average category. In a bit of a surprise, Jacoby Ellsbury went in this round with the 31st pick overall. Ellsbury has a ton of potential, no doubt, but with Ichiro Suzuki, Brian Roberts, Alex Rios and Shane Victorino still on the board, this pick was a bit too high risk for my liking.

Round Four – Brian McCann, C: I wanted a top-tier catcher and probably moved a bit early here. Hindsight says I could have waited a round and built on the stolen base category with a Victorino or Rios pick. With 14 picks before my next selection, I paid a heavy price for nabbing potentially the best player at a relatively shallow position, but on the other hand he’s now locked up. Carl Crawford went with the No. 40 pick and it looks like the early verdict suggests that this perennial first rounder has taken a serious plunge.

Round Five – Nick Markakis, OF: Surprise, surprise, surprise! I certainly wasn’t expecting Markakis to fall into my lap in Round Five, but I have no complaints here whatsoever. If he can up those stolen bases just a tad I’ll be a very happy camper.

Round Six – Nate McClouth, OF: McClouth is one of the few Pirates that I want on my team for the ’09 campaign. I like the power/speed mix and this pick fits in well with my overall plan.

Round Seven – Jon Lester, SP: There was no shortage of quality pitchers out there, but I really like Lester heading into 2009 and wanted what I consider to be a top-tier pitcher to anchor my staff. Mission accomplished! A potential 20-game winner with great peripherals was just too tough to pass on.

Round Eight – Joe Nathan, RP: It was now time to find that top-tier closer and Nathan fits the bill to a “T.” The number of question marks entering Spring Training in the closer role leads me to believe that a solid base is a necessity in the saves category.

Round Nine – Edinson Volquez, SP: A quick glance revealed a solid group of starting pitchers still on the board, including the likes of Carlos Zambrano, Scott Kazmir, Ben Sheets, A.J. Burnett, Cliff Lee and Daisuke Matsuzaka. However, I went with the 25-year-old former Ranger Volquez. Those 206 punchouts in 196 IP in 2008 were just too enticing.

Round 10 – Matt Cain, SP: Eventually the Giants will score some runs for this guy, won’t they? Cain just turned 24, and with three seasons under his belt, I think the odds of just a few more wins to go along with those overall solid numbers makes him a good risk/reward pick at this stage of the draft. For those hoping to scoop a late-round bargain at catcher, it should be noted that it probably won’t be with Matt Wieters, who went this round with the No. 119 overall pick.

Round 11 – Adrian Beltre, 3B: Those of you that know me realize I have a serious man crush happening here, but the reality of the situation is that Beltre posted 25 HR and 77 RBI in 556 at bats while playing hurt for the bulk of 2008. Again, he fits my requirements — power and the potential for modest stolen base numbers.

Round 12 – Mike Aviles, SS: Shortstop was getting just a tad thin, so I made the move on a player that I have high hopes for in 2009. Those 10 HR, 51 RBI combined with a .325 BA and eight thefts in only 419 at bats that he put up are more than credible numbers to be building on heading into 2009. The remaining group of shortstops at this stage were Orlando Cabrera, Cristian Guzman, Ryan Theriot, Khalil Greene and Edgar Renteria. It does get lean fairly quick at shortstop, doesn’t it? Nelson Cruz left the board in this round, as did one of the top-touted rookies in David Price.

Round 13 – Jose Valverde, RP: Normally I’d already be in vulture mode, looking for those cheap end-game saves, but I just couldn’t pass on this one. This dude had 40-plus saves in back-to-back seasons with better than a strikeout per inning and he’s taken after Brian Fuentes? This should give me a fairly strong position in saves and allow me to toss out a gamble in the last couple of rounds. There is no shortage in closer gambles in a mock this early in the offseason, well before roles have been established.

Round 14 – Xavier Nady, OF: What’s not to like with a guy that hit to the tune of a .305 BA with 25 HR and 97 RBI in 2008? The move to New York was a definite positive and the former Pirate should be able to sustain those numbers heading into 2009.

Round 15 – Adam Jones, OF: Up until the leg injury, Jones was enjoying a fine 2008 campaign in Baltimore and is one of my picks to make that next move up the ladder in this coming season. A 20-HR, 15-SB season should be a lock for Jones in 2009.

Round 16 – Denard Span, OF: In 2008, Span managed six homers, 47 RBI and 18 SB in only 347 at bats in a lead-off capacity for the Twins. Given a full season, the possibility for 20 to 25 thefts is high; throw in his modest power potential and that makes him a solid pick at this stage of the draft.

Round 17 – Wandy Rodriguez, SP: In 2007 it was the road woes, in 2008 it was the health issues, although the ERA was a solid 3.54. In 2009, he will put both of those problems where they belong — behind him — and will manage both double digit wins and 180 strikeouts.

Round 18 – Joe Saunders, SP: The ERA is due for a bit of an increase from that solid 3.41, but I’ll take a 17-game winner this late in a draft and be very happy. The closer gambling commences with Matt Lindstom, Brian Wilson (actually that’s a nice pick this late) and Heath Bell going in this round.

Round 19 – Kevin Kouzmanoff, CI: I just couldn’t pass on the Kouz, coming off that 23-HR, 84-RBI season in 2008. More closers (or closers in waiting) disappeared off the board this round with Joey Devine, Frank Francisco, Jose Arredondo and George Sherrill all going in this round. There is not a lot of faith in Sherrill, but those doubts are fully justified with former Oriole closer Chris Ray on pace to be ready for Spring Training.

Round 20 – Jesus Flores, C: The 24-year-old former Rule 5 pick did a commendable job in a half-season in 2008 with eight homers and 59 RBI in only 301 at bats. This pick also saves me from that last-minute rush to grab one of the half dozen Ranger catchers still on the board (oh, what’s that? They traded Gerald Laird? Okay, make that “near-half dozen”).

Round 21 – Mark Buehrle, SP: Getting a 15-game winner that managed to get his strikeouts up into the 140 range at the bottom of the draft is a nice safe pick.

Round 22 – Scot Shields, RP: It’s either Arredondo or Shields who will close for the Halos at this stage of the game, and Shields — even with Francisco Rodriguez breaking records — has always managed to pick off a few saves here and there. I think this represents a safe pick in conjunction with Nathan and Valverde that potentially has big upside. Speaking of how the mighty have fallen, Travis Hafner was finally chosen this round. Those who believe in a Pronk resurgence are obviously few and far between, but this late it could turn out to be a very nice bargain.

Round 23 – Mark Ellis, MI: It’s Round 23 and there were several options available with Ellis providing the best opportunity for 10 to 15 thefts, again fitting my team’s needs.

Summary

Overall, I’m happy with the results achieved in this early glance at the 2009 season. I would have loved to have snared Sizemore, but he wasn’t there so you move on and build based on the best options available. As a rule, I’m very big on moving early on the stolen base category, but took a different approach this time and believe it was successful.

I ended up with three guys in Kinsler, McClouth, and Span that should provide 20-plus thefts each and with Jones, Aviles, Markakis, Ellis and Beltre contributing in that category I should be able to finish mid-pack in stolen bases. The power potential for this team is very solid (probably top three in this mock), although the batting average could be somewhat of a concern. I like my starting pitching, although strikeouts, with both Saunders and Buehrle, could be a bit low.

The bullpen is anchored by two stud closers and one decent gamble.

Shortstop and first base thin out rather quickly this year, but that is offset by the outfield options being deeper than I’ve seen in a few years (hence, I steered clear of my “all outfielder, all the time” strategy from last season). Starting pitching is plentiful and seems to again be again continuing its fall in the pecking order. A solid starting pitcher can be found in the middle rounds heading forward into this spring’s drafts, and don’t forget to find a stud closer with all of the current uncertainty surrounding that position.

In conclusion, I’d like to thank all the skilled participants, Lenny, Paul and the crew over at Melnick and Greco for the live analysis, and to the fine folks over at Mock Draft Central for both the opportunity to partake in this mock and doing another great job in hosting the event. The 2009 season is not all that far down the road (WBC participants have to report in seven and a half weeks — speaking of which, keep your eyes peeled for our exclusive WBC Preview) and here’s hoping that this very early glance at it provides some insight into what is in store just around the corner.

Well, the American League is done, so we now turn our attention to the Senior Circuit’s free agency scene. For those of you (shame on you) who missed our exhaustive AL series, you can find it here:

Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Expectations were sky high for this young, up and coming team after its surprise 90-win campaign and playoff appearance in 2007. And after blazing out of the gates with a 19-7 start, the Snakes sure looked like they were headed for greater things in 2008. And then the wheels fell off. An offense that overachieved early on came back to earth and the bullpen imploded. The team enjoyed only one winning month after April, going 63-73 over the remainder of the season. Needless to say, they were unable to return to the playoffs for a second straight season, and it’s clear this team needs work to get back into contention in the NL West.

Certainly the rotation was not the problem. Anchored by staff ace Brandon Webb, the D-Backs led the NL in quality starts. But the lineup left something to be desired, finishing 14th in batting average and stolen bases. Chris Snyder showed improved power, but his average has been slipping for a couple of seasons. And while Justin Upton enjoyed a strong season, he doesn’t exactly have his older brother’s speed (although he did show moderate speed when he was a minor leaguer).

A healthy Eric Byrnes could make a big difference to the D-Back attack. After a lost season, he’ll need to work hard to regain his starting spot – something the team says he won’t be handed – but given that he’s the highest paid position player on the squad, I can’t seem them paying him big bucks to sit on the bench.

Orlando Hudson is all but gone, and the team has turned to Felipe Lopez as his replacement; unfortunately, this represents a downgrade offensively, so Arizona will need to address that disparity elsewhere in the lineup. The D-Backs had their sights set on Mark Loretta to act as part of a second base platoon, but they lost out on that free agent.

The bullpen situation was addressed to an extent with the acquisition of Scott Schoeneweis from the Mets. Better yet, the Mets will pick up a big portion of Schoeneweis’s salary and all is cost Zona was underwhelming minor league reliever Connor Robertson, who was unimpressive in Triple-A last season.

The rotation will likely lose the ancient Randy Johnson to free agency, but with Max Scherzer ready to take the hill every fifth day, that won’t be a huge issue.

Unfortunately, the cost-conscious Diamondbacks have seven free agents to deal with, including several key components of its lineup, bullpen and rotation. So unless this team gets quite creative with its moves this offseason, it could find itself unable to turn in a third straight winning season, never mind making any progress to get back into the postseason.

Tony Clark, 1B: After spending three years in the desert, Clark left the D-Backs last season, taking much less money from the Padres than Arizona was supposedly offering. He spent the first half of the season in an extremely limited role in San Diego, doing next to nothing, before being dealt back to Zona, a move that didn’t exactly revitalize the aging switch hitter. He must have done something right, however; the Diamondbacks are talking about bringing him back to reprise his role as the backup at first base and a key bat off the bench. The word is they are close to an agreement, but I think Clark’s most valuable asset now is as a veteran presence on a young team. Unfortunately, that’s not exactly a fantasy category.

Juan Cruz, RHP: Cruz was one of the bright spots in a beleaguered D-Back pen last season, cutting his home run rate and enjoying a career year, so he’s bound to be pursued by many teams this offseason. Detroit definitely could use some bullpen help, especially since it has swung and missed at a top-notch closer so far. The Dodgers are also looking at Cruz, and Texas may make a run at him and use him as its closer, something that would likely help lure him.

Adam Dunn, OF: While 40 homers (five straight years) and 100 RBI (four of last five) is pretty much a guarantee with Dunn, he wasn’t having a banner season in Cincy, and didn’t improve after landing in Arizona as a rent-a-player in a move that didn’t help shake the Diamondbacks out of their doldrums. He remains one of the NL’s most dangerous left-handed bats, but I don’t think he’s going to get the mega deal he seems to think is a given. I also don’t think anything will happen with Dunn until next month. Apparently, Toronto has looked at him, but I think that might be a joke given Dunn’s legendary slagging by Jay GM J.P. Ricciardi. There’s plenty of top-notch corner men on the market, so that will restrict his value to an extent, but one team that has been rumoured to be interested is Atlanta. The Yanks may also be players here and the offensively-challenged Giants may even make a run for him. Could Tampa Bay try to make a splash? It’s not inconceivable. Also, the Halos have reportedly had preliminary conversations with Dunn’s agent.

David Eckstein, SS: In a half season, Eckstein might have done more to render the Toronto offense toothless than any other player. Not only did he accumulate 260 at bats in which he failed to properly set the table – 141 of which were at the lead-off spot, where he particularly was rancid – but he was also the man who collided with Aaron Hill, knocking one of the most important hitters in the Jay lineup out for the season with a concussion. Finally, Eckstein was dealt to Arizona, where he was even worse down the stretch. Atlanta, having struck out with Rafael Furcal, may turn to Eckstein as a poor substitute. Apparently the Pirates, never strangers to signing mediocre players, are also interested.

Orlando Hudson, 2B: Although Hudson’s season ending early because of injury really helped expedite the Arizona swoon, he was excellent while he was in there. After setting a career high with 70 walks in 2007, the O-Dog did not show as much patience last season, but he still hit for a career best .305 with good pop for a middle infielder. Also a stellar defensive player, Hudson was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise moribund Diamondback offense, but he is virtually out the door – especially since the club has brought in Lopez to take his place. Might Toronto look to bring back the player it developed in its system? Ricciardi mentioned his name recently as someone who is still available.

Randy Johnson, LHP: After flaming out with the Yankees in 2006, Johnson’s career has been somewhat revitalized since heading back to the desert. But let’s face it, even though he stayed healthy last year, he’s just a six-inning starter these days whose days of domination are long gone. The Big Unit has become more hittable now, but he remains a solid starter that can help a staff despite a record last season (11-10) that didn’t make anyone swoon. The sure-fire Hall of Famer is within shouting distance of his 5,000th career strikeout, and I’m sure he’d like to reach that plateau (not to mention the five wins he needs to hit 300) before calling it a day.

Brandon Lyon, RHP: Lyon encapsulated the D-Back bullpen woes, as he was way too hittable, struggling in the closer role before finally being replaced. The Tigers are still trying to claw their way to a better bullpen, so may peg him as their 2009 closer after failing to land bigger targets.

Next: We head east to Atlanta, to check in on a Braves’ team in serious need of retooling.

Evan Longoria completed his sweep of the freshman awards when he was named 2008 Rookie of the Year as part of MLB.com’s annual fan-voted This Year in Baseball Awards. One of the smartest things the Rays did all year was pull the trigger early on Longoria, calling him up after a the season was a mere 10 games old. The dude led all rooks in dingers and slugging and paced AL freshmen in ribbies, extra-base hits and total bases. His three-dinger game in September made him the first rookie third baseman to do so since Eddie Matthews did it 56 years ago. Longoria is also pretty slick with the leather, finishing sixth among AL third basemen in fielding percentage. I guess there’s a reason he’s going as high as 15th in mock drafts we’ve witnessed this offseason. (For more on mock drafts, stay tuned for Tim McLeod’s latest mock report, coming soon.)

So, Cliff Lee won the Comeback Player of the Year Award in the AL. Um, what exactly was he coming back from? It’s not like he was the shit before. Okay, he had a pretty good year in 2005, I’ll give him that. But considering Lee also took home the Cy, I would have preferred to see Mike Mussina win Comeback Player of the Year honours in what proved to be his final year. It would have been an especially nice touch considering Moose never took home a Cy Young, but something tells me when all is said and done, Lee’s career won’t be able to hold a candle to what Mussina accomplished. Just a hunch.

The latest word on the street has the Boston Red Sox pulling out of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, saying they can’t compete with the other offers he has on the table. Could the BoSox be calling Scott Boras’s bluff here? Time will tell. If the switch hitter is really done being chased by the BoSox, that leaves the Yanks, Orioles, Angels and Nationals as the most likely contenders. If you’re in a keeper league, pray that the BoSox get back into this and nothing stupid happens like Tex winds up as the Nats’ cleanup hitter.

The Yanks set their sites on C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and got them both. Should they have been careful what they wished for? The Bronx Bombers have on occasional shelled out serious bucks or dealt for an “ace” only to see them flop (see Brown, Kevin and Pavano, Carl for a couple examples of recent vintage). Two aces? $243.5 million. Watching the Yanks fall flat on their faces and miss the playoffs again in 2009? Priceless.

Amazing factoid: the only other time in the last 105 years that a team added a pair of 17-game winners or better in the same offseason was when Houston lured both Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte from the Yankees in 2004.

How bad do you think the BoSox would like a do-over on the Julio Lugo signing? Four years for $36 million? Yikes! And after a horrible first year in Beantown he played just 82 games last year thanks to injuries. In the meantime, he’s been passed by Jed Lowrie on the depth chart and now Boston has a $10 million man sitting on the bench that it would love to deal this offseason.

Can someone please explain after all the upheaval in Toronto how J.P. Ricciardi has yet to be shown the door? Ted Rogers must be turning in his freshly dug grave right about now. How many reasons do you need to jettison J.P.? I’ll give you 126 million of them, as in the number of bucks he convinced Rogers to invest in Vernon Wells for one extremely down year and one injury-shortened campaign.

So Kerry Wood will close in Cleveland and get over $20 million over the next two years to do it. Well, I’m so glad that the Indians have solved their bullpen woes. Uh, yeah.

Look at the Royals! Breaking out their wallets for the likes of Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp. Well, Jacobs doesn’t earn big bucks yet, but he’s eligible for arbitration this winter, so he is due for a kickass raise.

Texas is trying to grab Ben Sheets. What do you think the chances are it will be successful considering how high the money will go for this auction item? And if the Rangers do somehow lure him to Arlington, will he (a) be a major flop; (b) suffer injury after injury; or (c) both (a) and (b)?

If Boston is indeed out of the Teixeira contest, that means Mike Lowell will be sticking around in Beantown and Kevin Youkilis will stay at first base. That could have an impact on Youk’s ability to qualify at the hot corner in 2010.

I’m glad that Rafael Furcal is likely headed back to the Dodgers; if the A’s had landed him, something would have seemed off. Oakland spending big bucks? It’s not working for me, sorry.

Bobby Abreu, a two-time All-Star among his 13 big league seasons, wants $30 to $48 million for two or three years. And I want a scantily-clad 18-year-old woman to hand-feed me Twinkies. Only one of us is going to get what we want (him), and only one of us is going to deserve it (me). Life can sure suck, sometimes.

This is it — the final installment of our Free Agency Report on the American League. Today, we check in on the situation in Toronto, and then we’ll launch into the National League in the coming days. You can find the previous sections of this tome here: Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII and IX.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays improved by three games in 2008 en route to a third straight winning season. Great news, right?

Uh, not so fast.

Despite the improvements, mostly led by the AL’s top pitching staff, this team finished a disappointing fourth in the AL East behind perennial contenders Boston and New York and the AL’s newest superpower – Tampa Bay. Toronto’s stretch of meaningless Octobers has now been in effect since its last World Series title in 1993.

How the hell is Toronto ever supposed to compete with three teams that are sure to be dominant for years to come? This challenge seems especially insurmountable now with the Canadian dollar currently suffering, meaning the Jays will be watching their loonies closely this winter. A.J. Burnett is already gone; could Roy Halladay be next? Don’t scoff – the idea that Toronto may deal its ace isn’t so far fetched. B.J. Ryan could also be out the door, perhaps headed to Detroit to help solve the Tiger bullpen woes.

Stripping the club of its pitching depth will hurt considering this is what led the team to another winning season with Toronto pacing the AL in ERA, BAA, OPS against and WHIP. Scott Downs enjoyed a career year in a set-up role, while Jesse Carlson excelled in a similar role. Halladay turned in another Cy Young type of year, while Shaun Marcum enjoyed a breakout year (but will unfortunately miss the 2009 season after Tommy John surgery).

Offense was the Achilles’ Heel of this squad, as the Jays ranked a woeful 11th in the AL in runs, slugging percentage and OPS. Matt Stairs couldn’t come close to duplicating his fine 2007 season and then was dealt to eventual World Champion Philadelphia; Marcos Scutaro wasn’t bad considering how low the expectations were, but giving over 500 at bats to a sub-700 OPS dude with no power? Uh, yeah…; and Rod Barajas proved once and for all that he is not a legitimate starting big league catcher (of course his lack of offense wouldn’t stick out nearly as much in a lineup that was capable of scoring more runs).

Toronto will have to be very creative this offseason if it hopes to improve its squad, especially given that the team can’t add any more payroll. Unfortunately, the Jays have four free agents to deal with, and while only one made a huge contribution in 2008 – this team will need to do some retooling this winter. The club seems further away from its glory years than ever, somewhat ironic given that the team it beat in the ’93 Series finally made it back this year and won it all.

A.J. Burnett, RHP: Burnett finally stayed healthy, setting career highs in games, innings, strikeouts and wins. And although his peripherals were actually somewhat stronger in 2007, Burnett picked a perfect time to win 18 games and then opt out of his contract and trigger free agency; he’s agreed to a preliminary deal with the Yanks for five years and $82.5 million. Ka-ching! The Braves were also very interested in Burnett, although many believe the Yanks spent way too much on an overrated arm. It will be very interesting to see how he does pitching for the first time in a pressure-packed situation. Sure, he’s got post-season experience from his Marlin days, but pitching in the Bronx Zoo is a whole different kettle of fish. Does Burnett have the right makeup to succeed there?

John Parrish, LHP: Parrish pitched extremely well in Triple-A, earning some time in both the rotation and the bullpen for the Jays. He surrendered too many homers, but offset that with his improved control, thereby managing to revitalize his career somewhat. The Tigers, hoping to shape up the black hole that was their bullpen in 2008, have been showing interest in the veteran southpaw.

Brad Wilkerson, OF: Hmm, let’s see….now he’s a bad hitter as well as a poor fielder. Yikes. Patience – once one of Wilkerson’s strengths – disappeared last season, taking his BA even further into the abyss. I’m sorry, I’m just not seeing a recovery any more. Wilkerson will probably have to sign a minor league deal and earn his way back to the majors.

Gregg Zaun, C: An elbow injury helped expedite a diminished role for Zaun in 2008, and with his gap power shrinking for the past couple of years, he’s just not a productive bat any longer. His decent on-base skills have also been in decline. Still, there are teams making inquiries about the vet backstop, including the Tigers, the ‘Stros and the Orioles, who would love a veteran presence to help usher in the Matt Wieters era in B-More.

Next: We’ll head over to the Senior Circuit and start making the rounds.

Texas Rangers

In 2008, the Rangers appeared to be making plenty of progress after a disappointing 2007 season saw them win just 75 games, but a second-half slump left the team with just 79 wins for a fourth straight losing campaign.

Even with that less than inspiring record, Texas managed to finish second in the AL West, for its highest placing since last winning the division in 1999.

Rarely will you see a club in which its strengths and weaknesses are so clearly defined as was the case with the 2008 Texas Rangers. This team led the American League in batting average, runs, slugging and OPS, but was dead last in ERA, batting average against, OPS against, WHIP and quality starts.

The O shined, led by the probably soon-to-be-departed Milton Bradley, and holdovers like Ian Kinsler, who took another big step forward, Chris Davis, who emerged as a serious power threat in a half season, and Josh Hamilton, who enjoyed a major breakthrough.

The pitching staff, however, was stuck together by snot and tape, and far too many innings were sucked up by mediocre and undeserving arms. Swingman Luis Mendoza took a major step backward this season after showing such promise in 2007; Dustin Nippert, also used in a swingman role, pitched well at Triple-A, but apparently still can’t get big leaguers out; closer C.J. Wilson had horribly shaky command before an injury ended his season and cost him his job for 2009; Kason Gabbard was hurt for a good chunk of the season, but was too hittable when he did pitch; and youngster Matt Harrison showed promise, but given his hit rates, might have been better served spending more time at Triple-A before getting thrown to the wolves.

Gee, I wonder where they’ll concentrate their efforts this offseason?

It’s actually already started, as Texas helped alleviate its crowded catching situation by dispatching Gerald Laird to the Tigers for a couple of young pitching prospects. This adds to an already impressive arsenal of young arms in the system who will soon arrive in Arlington to turn the Rangers’ fortunes around.

And it can’t happen soon enough.

In the short-term, however, the pitching staff isn’t likely to be vastly better in 2009; also of concern is the fact that the Rangers have four free agents to deal with – three of which were important parts of the 2008 club.

That’s the bad news; the good news is that with even a slight improvement in pitching, this team should erase its streak of losing seasons in 2009.

Milton Bradley, DH: Bradley stayed healthier than usual (which isn’t saying much), but he enjoyed a career year, setting a personal best in walks along the way. He was offered arbitration by the Rangers, who would like to keep him, but Bradley rejected it, opting to test the market instead. Plenty of teams are biting. KC is showing interest, Tampa Bay is looking at him, the Cubs could use a corner outfielder and may kick his tires, and the Jays are hell bent on adding Bradley because things are apparently too boring in Canada and they’re hoping he’ll spice things up, which he is wont to do from time to time.

Jason Jennings, RHP: Jennings just keeps getting shelled harder and harder and the fact that he can’t stay healthy either doesn’t exactly make him attractive from any perspective. Regardless, Texas is talking about bringing him back, but at least just on a minor league deal this time around. Boy, how happy do you think the Rockies were to deal him to Houston a couple of years ago? Jennings has been simply rancid since leaving the mountains.

Ramon Vazquez, 3B: Vazquez has played a key role off the Ranger bench the past two seasons, and after a very productive campaign in which he put up a career-best line of .290/.362/.430, could he vie for a full-time gig? Uh, maybe not. He hit .310 against righties, but just .188 against lefties. Arizona needs to replace Orlando Hudson at second base and would love to have Vazquez as the strong part of a platoon. The D-Backs have already offered him a one-year deal with a club option for a second season, but that was a while ago, and Vazquez is holding out for a two-year offer. Arizona has made an offer to Mark Loretta to be the right-handed hitting side of that platoon, and is also considering Damion Easley or perhaps Adam Kennedy, who would need to be pried out of St. Louis via trade.

Jamey Wright, RHP: Pitching out of the bullpen exclusively for the first time in his career, Wright was actually rather effective – far more so than his bloated ERA would indicate. He did a good job of limiting the long ball, improved his control and upped his strikeout rate. He won eight games and earned 17 holds, to boot. Considering his peripherals were much better than in 2007, when his ERA was a run and a half lower, I think we’re talking about some bad luck here. Texas, however, doesn’t want him back, failing to offer Wright arbitration, so it looks like we’ll find out if this workhorse reliever can bounce back elsewhere.

Next: We head north of the border (home of the good bacon…speaking of bacon, check this recipe out! Disgusting, eh? Tell me you don’t want one immediately, though) and wrap up the American League free agency outlook with a visit to Toronto.

We continue our tour around the bigs, examining the free agents for each club, with another segment today. Previous parts can be found here: Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII.

Seattle Mariners

After winning 88 games in 2007, expectations were high that the Mariners could compete for the AL West title and get back to the postseason for the first time since 2000. Instead, the offense completely tanked, and this team hit rock bottom, winning a mere 61 games — its worst showing since 1983.

If you’re looking for a bright spot in Seattle’s 2008 season, the club did finish sixth in the AL in stolen bases thanks to a nice comeback year (running wise, at least) from Ichiro Suzuki.

However, with just one AL team scoring less runs and having a worse on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS, it was pretty clear where the Mariners’ problems lay. There were culprits aplenty, but to pick on a few, I’d target Jose Vidro, who was so unproductive that the team finally DFAed him in August; Kenji Johjima, who’s extra base power last showed up on a milk carton; Yuniesky Betancourt, who simply doesn’t get on base enough to be a legitimate fantasy option; hell, even Ichiro struggled, relatively speaking, especially as far as his extra-base pop went.

With four last place finishes in the past five seasons, the Mariners really need to do some serious retooling. On the plus side, they have just three free agents to deal with, and just one of those was an integral part of the team.

Willie Bloomquist, OF: Bloomquist’s role has been on decline for the past couple of seasons, and the fact the he managed just one extra-base hit all year long negated his improved patience and decent SB numbers. The Mariners have plenty of prospects on the way, so there’s no need for them to re-sign this veteran utility man, hence they did not offer him arbitration.

Miguel Cairo, IF: Believe it not, Cairo is 34, not 44. He actually enjoyed a decent year off the Mariner bench, recording his highest hit total since 2005. However, Cairo’s speed has deteriorated and he never had much pop to lose. The Mariners have not offered him salary arbitration, and like Bloomquist, he’ll be replaceable. The fact that Seattle signed Russell Branyan probably is the final nail in the coffin on Cairo’s chances of returning to Em City.

Raul Ibanez, OF: Ibanez enjoyed another strong season, setting a new personal high in at bats, scoring a surprising amount of runs considering how crappy this offense was and pacing the team in OPS for a third straight year. The fact that he was as productive as he was on this team, despite a slight uptick in his strikeout rate, is a testament to Ibanez turning into a legitimate fantasy stud in recent years. Put this bat in a better lineup, and how many runs would he drive in? We may find out, as Ibanez is expected to decline the Mariners’ arbitration offer. Tampa Bay is seeking a left-handed DH, and Ibanez could fit the bill. Or Philly might target him as a replacement for Pat Burrell in left field. The Mariners will also be players here, hoping to re-sign the veteran. Apparently, the Jays are also looking at Ibanez, and the Cubs and Mets are possibilities, too.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays were the story of the year in 2008, finally breaking through in Season 11 of their existence and not only busting their playoff cherry, but coming within three wins of a World Series title.

While they had showed some modest improvements in 2007, the team absolutely exploded last season, winning 97 games (they had never topped 70 victories before) to take home the AL East crown.

Speed was the calling card of this club, as it paced the AL in thefts in no small part thanks to B.J. Upton doubling his career high with 44 swipes. Where this team could use a boost is in hitting, however. Only one AL team had a worst batting average than the club’s .260 mark. A good place to start working on that would be finding an upgrade over Gabe Gross in right field; at the very least, he can’t be allowed to have a single at bat against a lefty.

The Rays will probably also be seeking some bullpen insurance, especially with closer Troy Percival undergoing back surgery this offseason and one of their relievers having already bolted from town.

Any way you look at it, though, the Rays have arrived and aren’t going anywhere except up for the foreseeable future. With four free agents to deal with (a couple of which were key cogs of the team) and some tweaking necessary in others areas, they do have some work to do this offseason as they take aim at the ultimate prize in 2009.

Rocco Baldelli, OF: Injuries continues to decimate Baldelli’s career, limiting him to 80 at bats in 2008. However, once he returned, he showed some nice gap power. I don’t like the fact that he’s striking out more and that his speed seems to have gone AWOL. He probably fits in nicely as a platoon partner for Gross in RF, considering Baldelli hits lefties very well, while he struggles (just .219) against righties. However, that would leave him on the weak side of a platoon, rendering him useless from a fantasy perspective. So if someone offers him a larger role (Philly, seeking a cheaper option to replace Burrell, or Boston, hoping to bring in a local boy?), I’d guess Baldelli would jump at the chance. However, given his condition (mitochondrial disorder), I’m not sure anyone is going to hand him a full-time gig – at least not without have a serious insurance policy on the bench. At this stage, Baldelli is most likely a role player until he proves he can handle more.

Cliff Floyd, DH: Injuries – the story of his career – reared their ugly head once again, relagating Floyd to strictly DH duty in 2008. His speed has long since been decimated, but he remains an impressive power bat off the bench. There’s a real possibility that Floyd racks ‘em up this offseason, and if Tampa Bay decides he no longer fits on the team as it’s constructed, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the end of the line for him.

Eric Hinske, OF: Despite his second-half woes, Hinske was a very pleasant surprise for the Rays in 2008, rediscovering his power and reaching 20 homers for the first time since he was a rookie. He was quite productive in his role, and even flashed some speed for the first time in many years. The Rays may bring him back if it makes sense based on their other moves, or he could wind up a DH somewhere, such as with the Yankees.

Trever Miller, LHP: Miller improved his control somewhat, and that helped him bounce back after an off year in 2007. He’s a situational lefty who will need to be replaced in Tampa Bay, as he’s already gone, having signed with the Cardinals for one year.

Next: we’ll head west again, checking in on the Texas Rangers.

Oakland A’s

The A’s suffered their second straight losing season, but the fact that they only slipped one game from 2007 was quite a surprise; in fact, if not for a mid-season swoon (12-35 between July 11 and September 5 before righting the ship with a 10-9 finish), this team would have been one of the bigger stories in baseball. Of course, you can’t exactly ignore a near two-month stretch of .255 ball, can you?

The pitching staff, helped along by the emergence of relievers Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler (the latter of which was a true revelation) and the excellent conversion to starting by Justin Duscherer (until he got hurt, that is), more than held its own, ranking fourth in the AL in both batting average and OPS against.

Where this team fell flat on its face was its wet noodle attack. The A’s ranked dead last in the AL in batting average, runs, on-base percentage (Gasp! Billy Beane must have been sticking his head in the oven) and slugging percentage.

With Eric Chavez again out most of the season (another disturbing trend altogether), the team was forced to employ Jack Hannahan for most of the year at third, and he’s clearly a borderline major leaguer at best. Daric Barton did not deliver on his ROY potential, but I do expect him to be better now that he’s had his hip fixed. Emil Brown was given way too many at bats; Bobby Crosby finally stayed healthy, but still hasn’t come close to duplicating his first two seasons; and Carlos Gonzalez, brimming with potential, was unable to provide a boost when brought up.

Of course, Gonzalez may not have been part of the solution last season, but he’ll definitely help in 2009 – indirectly, at any rate. He was packaged up with starter Greg Smith and former closer Huston Street (made expendable with Devine and Ziegler developing so rapidly) to the Rockies for a man who will in essence provide the Cialis the A’s lineup so desperately needs – Matt Holliday.

If the A’s land free agent Rafael Furcal, that will deliver another huge boost to the offense.

And with a mere four free agents of their own to deal with – none of whom are major losses, and one at least that’s likely a case of addition by subtraction – the A’s are in an excellent position to retool this offseason and end this mini streak of losing seasons in 2009.

Emil Brown, OF: The fact that Brown was given over 400 at bats last season underscores how anemic the A’s offense was. Scarier still, Brown cut his strikeout rates and put up better numbers overall than he had in 2007, yet he was still a steaming pile of crap, barely useful in an AL-only league, and a deep one at that. Of the 53 corner outfielders who had at least 400 plate appearances last season, just three had an OPS worse than Brown. ‘Nuff said. Baltimore is looking for a right-handed outfielder to platoon with Luke Scott, and given that Brown hit .295 against lefties (.211 vs. righties), this may be his future – as the weak side of a platoon. If Pat Burrell leaves Philadelphia, the Phils may opt to let Geoff Jenkins take over and bring in someone like Brown to play against lefties. At this point, no major league team is going to give Brown anywhere near the number of at bats Oakland gave him in 2008, and that’s a wise decision. For the A’s, this is clearly addition by subtraction.

Alan Embree, LHP: As he gets on his years, Embree is morphing more and more in a left-handed specialist, even though his platoon splits actually got a bit closer together last season. Even so, with left-handed relief pitching being the sacred golden cow of free agency this offseason, someone will throw more money at this vet than he’s worth. With Embree’s control faltering – he issued a career-high 30 walks last season – I’m not bullish on his chances of experiencing yet another comeback season as he last did in 2006 with the Padres.

Keith Foulke, RHP: He had a tough time staying healthy, but for the most part, Foulke’s decision to unretire worked out well as he enjoyed a solid season out of the A’s pen. He wasn’t offered arbitration, so is most likely headed elsewhere, as the A’s commit to developing their youngsters. A team like the Rays may want to add a veteran arm in the pen should fragile closer Troy Percival not be ready for Opening Day.

Frank Thomas, DH: The Jays finally realized they had shelled out too much money for an aging, one-dimensional player and cut bait early in the season after Thomas struggled badly out of the gate. He headed back to Oakland, a team desperate for another bat despite its glut of DH types, and he was certainly better than he had been in Toronto, but that’s not saying much. The Big Hurt wasn’t so much laying a beating on AL pitchers as opposed to himself, as a quad injury cost him most of the season. Not surprisingly, the A’s also did not offer arbitration to Thomas; he’s a Type B free agent, but the A’s obviously didn’t want to take the chance he’d accept the offer, and instead are willing to forgo the compensation they would have received had another team signed him. It makes sense – the acquisition of Holliday will push Jack Cust to where he should be – a full-time DH, leaving nowhere for Thomas to play. Could this be the end of the line for Thomas?

Next: We’ll head up the coast and check in on the free agent situation in Seattle.

Back in an article in early September we advised the world of the impending free agency of Junichi Tazawa, the starting pitcher from Nippon Oil Eneos of the Industrial Leagues in Japan. Since then, Tazawa has firmly committed to following his dream of pitching at the MLB level, the debate has stirred, the rules have changed, and Brian Cashman has attempted to immortalize himself as the eternal good guy in a recent New York Times article. Now, isn’t that just a handful to digest all in one sitting?

Let’s now move forward and take a look at some of the details. Yes, Tazawa is a free agent and as a result of his decision to seek free agency, a rather heated debate has been stirred dealing with both the “gentlemen’s agreements” between MLB and the NPB, and a series of accusations by the NPB.

There is no “raiding of players” as has been suggested over the past short while. Tazawa simply went to high school, played baseball, and when he went undrafted, he decided to ply his trade in the semi-professional Industrial Leagues. He enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2008 and as a free agent has decided that he wants to play in North America. Again, I would like to reiterate that this is not about corporate raiding, but a player in another country having the option of choosing his destiny according to the rules that are in place in his home country. He did not make these rules and guidelines, but is simply following the options that have been presented in this set of circumstances. He let everyone know of his rights and now we have a fallout and debate that has been simply blown way out of proportion.

Where was the NPB during this time, I ask? Tazawa could have been drafted and signed by any NPB team as both a high school player and as an Industrial League player and now that he is coming off a good year — make that a great year — you want the option to both have your cake and eat it too. Instead of attempting to rectify this situation by signing these players, expanding their minor league system or doing anything that remotely assumes a good and solid responsibility towards the game, the powers that be in the NPB have been pouting and crying foul, blaming their current misfortunes on everyone and anyone except whom they should be.

They had options, but now that Tazawa is coming off a great campaign, they choose to blame everyone but themselves for this predicament. Tazawa did nothing wrong. He played the game, excelled at it and chose one of the options that were available to him under the rules, namely to play his services at the MLB level as a free agent. Again, this process was initiated by Tazawa and thus the accusations of MLB raiding are in this case not warranted.

In an attempt to rectify this situation, the NPB determined that simply changing the rules would be the course it would pursue and have since instituted a new series of rules whereupon if Japanese players choose to leave as free agents they will be barred from playing in the NPB for up to three years if they ever choose to return to Japan.

This childish posturing is not going to resolve the issue, either now nor in the future.

Moving on we have Cashman chipping in with his two cents in that recent NY Times piece, the gist of which centred around the “gentlemen’s agreements” between the NPB and MLB. I guess my first question is where was the hue and cry when Kaz Tadano came over as a free agent in the same manner? Of course, given his off-the field activities (read: starring in gay porn movies), he wasn’t a desired commodity by the NPB so this was not an issue at that time.

If a free agent wishes the opportunity to ply his skills at the MLB level, or for that matter in the NPB, and has such right, what options are available? All this talk from Cashman about being the good neighbour and “gentlemen’s agreements” I find a bit trying. Couldn’t the reason have more to do with the fact that the Yanks have been burnt twice — first by Hideki Irabu and then Kei Igawa?

Under these circumstances I think it would be just a tad difficult to convince the Steinbrenner clan to cough up more cash for a 22-year-old free agent pitcher from Japan. As far as the “formal co-operative relationship” between the Yankees and Yomiuri as mentioned in the New York Times article, what exactly would that be? Brian, you’re dealing with a team that has refused to recognize the posting system, a rule that is currently in place in the league that as the most powerful NPB club, they attempt to run.

Do you think that simple chatter will change the free agency requirements currently in place in the NPB or, for that matter, provide anything that would be beneficial? You may exchange pleasantries and swap ads in your respective media guides, but other than that what is this agreement of sorts really accomplishing?

Enough ranting here, and let’s get back to Tazawa the player, not the political problem he’s become. In the recently completed National Corporate Championships, he was extremely impressive, tossing two shutouts, and allowing no earned runs in 20 2/3 IP. Tazawa has shown enormous potential this year and next season will likely bring that low-90s heat and breaking stuff to a Double-A or Triple-A park, and attempt to demonstrate that he has the abilities to excel and move up the ladder.

Not to take anything away from his fine season, but we are talking about a club team in the third tier of the Japanese game, so at this time, it would be prudent to temper your expectations. Yes, there is always the chance that Tazawa’s skills translate well and he does perform at the big league level in the immediate future, but he has a lot to prove at this stage of the game before that opportunity presents itself.

Now that the Industrial League season has concluded, Tazawa has been entertaining offers for his services from the Braves, Red Sox, Rangers and Mariners. According to an article on Friday on Japanball.com, Tazawa has rejected the offers from Texas, Seattle and Atlanta and is looking at Boston, with his final decision to be made within the next few days.

For now I say good fortunes to Junichi Tazawa as he continues his journey in the game he loves. He has done nothing but demonstrate a level of class and respect that unfortunately many of the other stakeholders in this situation have not.

New York Yankees

Most teams would be ecstatic over an 89-win season, but the Yankees are not most teams. In fact, that represents the Pinstripers’ lowest win total since 2000, but more disturbingly spelled the end of a streak of playoff appearances that began way back in 1995.

On that note, a season of change is upon New York. There are plenty of strengths to build on – led by stalwarts Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon, this lineup remains among the most patient in the game.

But the Yanks are in serious need of a retooling of their pitching staff after a season in which they ranked eighth in the AL in ERA, BAA, WHIP and quality starts. Ian Kennedy was a disaster, Kei Igawa obviously is not a major league pitcher and Carl Pavano was a joke. The fact that steady Mike Mussina is calling it a career hurts even more, making the targeted acquisition of C.C. Sabathia all the more important for the Bronx Bombers.

One thing is certain – with eight free agents (the Yanks have already re-signed reliever Damaso Marte), including several key players, this team will have a very different feel come 2009.

Bobby Abreu, OF: Abreu enjoyed a solid bounce back season after his numbers slipped in his first full season in New York in 2007. His pop returned somewhat, and he remains an extremely productive player who should generate plenty of interest, especially given that beyond Manny Ramirez, there are no elite outfielders on the market. Abreu is definitely among the top 10 free agents of this year’s class, but one possible destination we can cross off his list is Philly – can you see him wanting to go back or the Phils wanting to bring him back, assuming they don’t re-sign Pat Burrell? Abreu would like to stay in the Big Apple, but unless he accepts arbitration, he’ll probably be headed elsewhere. The Mets and Cubs would among the top suitors if Abreu cuts his ties with the Yanks.

Jason Giambi, 1B: Not only did Giambi stay relatively healthy for the first time in a half decade, he bounced back very nicely after a disastrous 2007 season. Unfortunately, he’s a bit of a defensive liability, and now that the Yanks have added Nick Swisher and declined their 2009 option on Giambi, he will likely have to find a new home. He remains an extremely patient hitter, and could draw interest from a team like Toronto that needs to add some pop to its lineup.

Chad Moeller, C: Moeller enjoyed his finest season since 2003, but with less than 100 at bats to his credit, who cares? No doubt he’ll wind up yet again as someone’s number two or three catcher. Yawn.

Mike Mussina, RHP: Assuming the Moose is done, and all indications are that he won’t pull a Roger Clemens or Andy Pettitte here, then what a great way to go out, on the heels of his first ever 20-win season. The final tally for Mussina is 270 wins, 2,813 strikeouts and a 3.68 ERA. He currently ranks 19th all-time in strikeouts, 22nd in K/9, 33rd in starts and is tied for 33rd in wins. Hall of Fame-worthy? Let the debate begin.

Carl Pavano, RHP: Pavano again showed no hint that he’s past the litany of injuries that have turned his Yankee tenure into a ridiculously overpriced farce. Nine wins for over $40 million? Yikes! Still, you know some team will throw an incentive-rich deal at him in the hopes he can rediscover the form that made him an 18-game winner in 2004. Toronto could make a bid; so could Milwaukee. Cleveland will also be looking to add an inexpensive veteran starter and there’s talk that Pavano would like to return to Florida, where he enjoyed more success than anywhere.

Andy Pettitte, LHP: Despite improving his control and upping his Ks, Pettitte is coming off one of his worst seasons. The reason? The veteran southpaw allowed opposing batters to hit a career-worst .290. The result was a career-high 14 losses. Pettitte, a Type A free agent, will assumedly re-sign with the Yanks, but it’s not carved in stone. Certainly, the retirement of Mussina would force the Yankees’ hands, but New York still wants Pettitte to take a cut in pay. Will he be amenable to that? Of course, with the Moose gone, GM Brian Cashman may be forced to back down from that stance. I suspect there will be some drama here before it’s all said and done.

Sidney Ponson, RHP: Ponson actually pitched well with the Rangers to start the season, but he wore out his welcome and was waived. The Yanks, desperate for starting pitching, inked him, and he was awful in 15 starts in Pinstripes. Scary concept: Ponson allowed opponents to hit .311 against him last season, which actually represented an improvement of 24 points from 2007. Don’t look for the Yankees to re-sign him; maybe Texas will? Ya….riiiiiiiiiiight.

Ivan Rodriguez, C: I-Rod is another veteran that looked like he was enjoying a renaissance – until the Yankees acquired him that is. When Jorge Posada underwent season-ending surgery, New York brought in Pudge, who had been hitting very with the Tigers, even if his power had continued to wane. Once in the Big Apple, Rodriguez never looked worse offensively. A Type B free agent, I-Rod could draw interest from New York’s other team, and if Boston and Jason Varitek part ways, the BoSox could look to bring in another Pudge.

Next: We’ll head out West and check out the free agent situation in Oakland and Seattle.

We had to take a few more days off from the report, inundated by the work week. Stupid work week! Anyways, we’re back with our look at the free agency scene. Seeking previous parts of the report? Of course you are! And you may find them here: Parts I, II, III and IV.

Minnesota Twins

After 2007 saw a streak of winning seasons that dated back to 2000 snapped, the Twins rebounded much quicker than anyone expected, winning 88 games last season and taking the White Sox to a one-game playoff before finally conceding the AL Central title.

Minny was driven by its offense, a lineup led by its JMs — no, not Schneider (although he does make tasty and versatile bacon), but rather Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau — that finished third in the American League in both batting average and runs. The pitching staff, however, was a bit too hittable, ranking 11th in BAA.

Whether that’s something the team will address through free agency or trade or simply organic growth remains to be seen at this point. The rotation certainly has plenty of room for growth – Francisco Liriano should be that much better in 2009 another year removed from Tommy John surgery and Nick Blackburn should improve his hit rates in his second season. However, despite his 12 wins last season, I’m not sold on Glen Perkins as the fifth starter, although I suppose you could do worse. The Twins will also need to address the loss of reliever Pat Neshek, who will probably miss the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this week, and with two of their free agents being southpaw relievers, that’s another area they’ll need to improve this offseason (although lefties Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares both impressed last season and Mijares in particular could be ready for a larger role).

It’s possible the Twinkies could parlay one of their glut of outfielders into some bullpen help or another starting pitcher.

Either way, this team made an impressive recovery from 2007, and with a mere four free agents this offseason – only a couple of which played key roles in 2008 – the Twins are in good shape heading into the final season of the Metrodome. That’s right, come Opening Day 2010, the Twins will finally be able to throw those Glad Bag walls into the trash where they belong as they open a new facility.

Adam Everett, SS: It was a lost season for Everett, as he endured two stints on the DL, the second of which was very lengthy. However, he was fairly productive while healthy and managed to cut his strikeout rate. But what happened to his speed, one of the few things that made him fantasy worthy? The Tigers are looking for a cheap option to replace Edgar Renteria, so Everett could be a good short-term fit there. The fact is, however, that I’m not sure Everett can hit enough to warrant a full-time job. Yes, he’s among the top defensive shortstops in the game, but his limited offense has been in decline since 2004. He sure as hell didn’t work out in Minny, but a team like Baltimore – which struggled all season long to find a shortstop who could stick – could be enticed to take a chance that Everett can bounce back – not that his offensive upside offers much room to bounce back to, mind you.

Eddie Guardado, LHP: Guardado looked reborn in Texas, but after a late-season deal, his homecoming in Minnesota was downright nightmarish. Still, he enjoyed a great season overall, really reducing his hit rates and settling in nicely as a solid set-up man. There are plenty of relievers with closing experience on the market, so Guardado will have competition to land a closing job and I really don’t see him getting another chance to save games at this stage of his career. But in the right situation, anything is possible. After he pitched so well for the Rangers last season, there’s a chance they’ll want him back. Tampa Bay may also be seeking an inexpensive late-inning man, especially if Troy Percival undergoes surgery and is not ready for the start of 2009. Colorado will be targeting a late-inning southpaw reliever to pitch in a set-up role, so you can be sure Everyday Eddie will be on its list.

Nick Punto, SS: Punto had a rough season, with two separate stints on the DL, but he when he played, he never played better, and because of his speed, he was a solid asset in AL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues. With Chase Utley likely out to start 2009, the Phillies could look to plug the hole with an inexpensive, short-term option like Punto, who toiled in Philly from 2001 to 2003. However, note that Punto would revert to a utility role once Utley was declared fit enough to return from his hip surgery.

Dennys Reyes, LHP: Reyes turned things around after a rather pedestrian showing in 2007, becoming a very steady LOOGY last season. He set a new career high in appearances, showed strong hit rates, improved control and sharper command. In fact, despite his limited innings, Reyes pitched well enough to offer some value in AL-only leagues, a rarity for someone with his role. With so many teams seeking left-handed bullpen help, Reyes won’t have any problem finding a job. After losing Jeremy Affeldt to free agency, Cincy will be seeking a replacement, but you can expect the Reds to have plenty of competition in the bidding for Reyes’ services.

Next: Well, we had planned to tackle the Yankees in this part as well, but we wrote a bit long (how novel for us!), so next up, we’ll check out the Yankees’ free agent situation.

What follows is my mostly futile attempt to capture FJM’s magic. Next step: Guest appearance on The Office. As FJM’s regulars know, excerpts from the article are in boldface text, and our caustic commentary is in regular text.

MVP Voting is out of Whack

Ryan Howard was the most valuable player in the National League in 2008.

This is actually true, unless you actually use the tools available which best determine a baseball player’s overall value to their team. But I like the gusto this column has already. Succinct, outrageous sentences are money.

That he was not voted MVP by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America says more about the association than about Howard, Albert Pujols or America.

I guess the “or America” part is a joke, because, like, it’s part of the association’s name. But I disagree all the same. This vote was historic because it showed that America can finally judge a baseball player by the stats they accrue, not the whims of perception. Yes We Can!

Pujols was not an embarrassing selection…

Because his numbers were better than everyone else’s, including Howard’s?

…not with his excellent numbers…

Which were better than everyone else’s…

…but was still the wrong selection.

Okay, that’s some solid reasoning right there. Pujols, who had the “numbers” was the “wrong selection” because “Howard was the Most Valuable Player.” Here I was, analyzing OPS, Adjusted Batting Runs, and Batter Wins. How foolish do I look, right now? You won this round, Sheridan.

And that should embarrass the association enough to do what it should have done long ago: get out of the business of voting on baseball’s postseason awards - as well as the Hall of Fame.
That won’t happen because the association is as incapable of being embarrassed…

Not to interrupt the self-hating, but the FJM archives are proof that Sheridan is right, these guys have zero shame.

Imagine Howard’s 2009 arbitration hearing. It will be different because he finished second in this voting as opposed to first. That alone is reason enough for the association to recuse itself from this annual charade.

This sounds like more of a problem with arbitration hearings, rather than the Writer’s Association. But that’s just me. And I thought the overwhelming statistical advantage that Pujols had over Howard meant the former deserved the MVP. So what the hell do I know?

It is similarly impossible to justify the association’s giving thumbs up or down to players from the steroid era who become eligible for Hall of Fame voting.

Umm, okay. Did any of you have that elementary school classwork where you read a paragraph, but some of the information presented wasn’t relevant to the rest of the writing, so you had to cross off the irrelevant portion? I did, and I aced that shit.

It is similarly impossible to justify the association’s giving thumbs up or down to players from the steroid era who become eligible for Hall of Fame voting.

Naaaaiiillleeeddd it.

(Disclosure: I belong to the association because membership streamlines the credential process and because the organization works to improve conditions and access for reporters; I don’t vote on anything.)

So you are 100 per cent absolutely, positively sure that Howard is the MVP of the National League, you have one of the coveted votes, and you abstain? Would this be the result of the Bradley effect!?

When I’ve written about this in the past, earnest members of the association have taken time out of their busy days to explain my ignorance to me.

Can I be a member of this association as well? It sounds like fun.

If the MVP is the player with the best all-round statistical season, a computer could figure that out. And a computer might well have spit out Pujols’ name this season. He was terrific.

It’s actually quite easy to define what the MVP is. It’s the most valuable player. And, yes, a computer would spit out Pujols’ name for the honour. But I forgot Howard has arbitration nearing…

But Howard got hot in September, hitting 11 home runs and driving in 32 runs to carry the Phillies into the playoffs. That’s the very definition of valuable.

Yes, six months into a six-month season, Howard got hot. Granted, he was the MVP of September. But Pujols was consistently (Copyright Joe Morgan) more valuable over the course of the six-month season.

The group-think association argument for Pujols, if I’m smart enough to get it right, is that he single-handedly kept the Cardinals in the wild-card race. That is brilliant, except it ignores the presence of Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus (so much for “single-handedly”), and the fact that the National League wild-card race was a watered-down farce.

Forget for a moment that the Cardinals’ roster doesn’t even come close to the Phillies’ roster; it might be worth pointing out that Philly possessed the third best pitching in the National League. St. Louis was middle of the pack. It probably also didn’t help that the Cardinals had the most blown saves in all of baseball*, while the Phillies had zero. If only Pujols would have gritted out some saves! What a cruel, cruel world.

* Sadly, I didn’t have to look that up, since I started Ryan Franklin on my fantasy team for half the season. Yes, I’m dumb.

The association seamheads love to throw around stats - OPS, VORP, ASPCA - to make a case for Pujols. That’s all great. Yes, he struck out less and hit for a higher average.

On a scale of 1-10 (1 being slightly more than a cat sleeping on a computer and 10 being a really smart cat wearing glasses while looking at a computer), Sheridan’s demonstrated understanding of statistics mentioned: -139

But Howard won actual baseball games in an honest-Abe pennant race. He had 11 more home runs than Pujols, scored five more runs than Pujols, and drove in 30 more runs than Pujols. Notice there are no decimal points involved there, only whole numbers that made a difference in real baseball games.

Phil Sheridan’s Guide to Statistics

Stats that have decimal points – Fake
Stats that don’t have decimal points – Real
Stats that don’t have decimal points but make my theory incorrect – Fake

That takes care of the logic.

Really, that was the logical part? Someone has cajones, Phil, you ol’ rascal! Let’s see if we can finish this column with the introduction of more useless information while restating the premise…

Ryan Howard - who has added a World Series ring to his 2005 rookie of the year and 2006 MVP trophies - will survive this voting nicely. The process that produced it should not.

Naiiiilllleeeedddd it.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels were the best team in baseball in 2008, reaching 100 wins for the first time in franchise history, but when the games really counted, once again they could not defeat their nemesis, getting eliminated in the postseason by the Boston Red Sox for the third time in the past five years.

I really thought this would be the year the Halos could get past their Boston hump, considering how soundly they dominated the Sox in the regular season, taking eight of nine. However, the defense – traditionally a strength of this club – let it down come playoff time, and it was another fall failure for LA.

The bullpen – led by record-setting closer Francisco Rodriguez – continued to be the backbone of this team, but it’s a relief corps that could have a very different look next season. Where the Angels need to step things up is in their on-base skills. A collective OBP of just .330 ranked 11th of 14 teams in American League. That’s not going to cut it for a contender.

So while the Angels are coming off their finest season, with six free agents – many of whom are vital components of the team – the squad will likely have a very different vibe come 2009.

Garret Anderson, OF: Well, Anderson stayed moderately healthy last season, but his power is on the wane, and he’s never been much of an OBP machine. Clearly, his best days are behind him, and he’s no longer a must-own fantasy outfielder. A Type B free agent (meaning if a team signs him, the Angels get a sandwich pick), Anderson had his option declined by the Halos, but that doesn’t mean they won’t try to bring him back at a lower salary. Another possibility is the Cubs (who could use a new right fielder, although Anderson hasn’t manned that position since 2000). I can’t see anyone giving him a long-term deal, but someone will buy his “name” and likely give him more than he’s worth.

Jon Garland, RHP: With free agency looming, Garland picked a lousy time to suffer through his worst season since he was a rookie. His K rate – already awful – has dropped further the past two seasons, making him a joke in 5×5 leagues. Interestingly, he trended far more towards being a groundball pitcher than ever before, but clearly it didn’t help. I’ll give him this – the dude is durable. A Type B free agent, this sinkerballer makes too many mistakes to be considered a difference maker, so I can’t see him going in the first wave of signings. More likely, after the better starting pitchers are off the market, some team will get desperate and reach for Garland. There’s a reason the Angels didn’t include him in their post-season rotation, after all.