Header

2008 Pre-Season Relief Pitcher Rankings

Picking relievers is tricky business. We all crave closers, but really, how many are sure bets year to year? Every season ushers in a wave of new closers, many of whom will have the job in April, but give way to a top set-up man in May. It’s a volatile situation leading to many high-risk gambles.

In leagues in which holds are tracked - more and more common these days - top-notch set-up men who can help in wins, Ks, ERA, WHIP and holds are often as or more valuable than some closers, especially from a long-term perspective.

The sharp owner will stay on top of this constantly.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS - Papelbon’s decision to forgo returning to the rotation and to continue closing was the best thing that happened (or didn’t happen as the case may be) to the BoSox last year. His owners are pretty stoked about it, too, no doubt. After all, pitching in short doses, this guy is as unhittable a pitcher as we’ve seen in a very, very long time. Papelbon certainly makes Boston manager Terry Francona’s job a lot easier.

2. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA - Although K-Rod slipped a bit last season, he is still one of the toughest pitchers in the game to make contact against. And even with a K rate that’s slipped three straight years, Rodriguez still whiffed better than 12 per nine innings. It looks like he’s headed for arbitration with the Halos and, rest assured, this won’t be a cheap settlement after he’s put up three straight seasons of at least 40 saves.

3. Jose Valverde, HOU - Houston’s new closer, dealt from the Snakes in December, is another closer headed for a big pay day in arbitration. He’s a workhorse, but note that his command has slipped the past two seasons. On the plus side, Valverde is entering his peak years and pitched better away from Arizona last season.

4. J.J. Putz, SEA - Putz has developed into an ace reliever the past two seasons, hitting the 40-save plateau for the first time in 2007, and on a bad team, to boot. I can’t see him coming close to duplicating his 2007 season, especially if his K rate keeps slipping, but Putz has definitely put himself among the elite closers in the game.

5. Joe Nathan, MIN - Shifting to the pen five years ago really kick started the career of Nathan, now one of the best in the business. He’s been almost impossible to score against the past couple of seasons, but if you’re the worrying type, I’d be mildly concerned about his substantial slip in command last season. Still, Nathan has emerged as one of the most popular Twins (although how long he’ll remain one is questionable), and with three sub-2.00 seasons in the last four years, he’s a popular pick among fantasy owners as well.

6. Bobby Jenks, CWS - Jenks was unhittable last year, chalking up a second straight 40-save season. But his K/9 was way down for a second straight year and his groundball rate slipped significantly as well, although it didn’t manifest itself in more homers allowed. I’ve been concerned about Jenks’ weight causing injuries for quite some time and I don’t think I’m alone, hence Chicago’s signing of Octavio Dotel.

7. Chad Cordero, WAS - Cordero was far more hittable last season, mostly thanks to a sluggish start and an awful August. Overall, however, he’s settled in quite nicely as a very consistent and durable option at closer once the studs are off the board. Note that he’s a good candidate to leave the Nats in a deadline deal, assuming they are once again sellers, and depending on where he lands, Cordero’s value could change dramatically.

8. Billy Wagner, NYM - Cracks are definitely starting to show in Wagner’s game with an ERA that’s risen two straight years and a declining K/9. However, he remains incredibly difficult to hit and is still a great source of strikeouts. In fact, since 1957, just three relievers have averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Wagner has.

9. Mariano Rivera, NYY - At first blush, a look at Mo’s 3.15 ERA last season might suggest that the end is nearing for this aging closer. But consider that he enjoyed his highest K/9 since taking over the closing job in New York and that his second-half ERA was just a shade over 2.50. The Yankees, in giving him a new three-year deal, obviously don’t believe he’s close to being done. Neither should you.

10. Takashi Saito, LAD - Although he was more susceptible to the long ball last season, Saito’s sparkling command led to a ridiculous 1.40 ERA. Jonathan Broxton is standing by to take over as soon as Saito falters, but he’s shown no signs of it yet. In fact, Saito have proved to be one of the bigger NPB bargains yet.

11. Jason Isringhausen, STL - Despite the occasional injury concern, Isringhausen has really established himself as an excellent closer since landing in St. Louis in 2002. He stayed healthy last season and avoided the home run trouble that plagued him in 2006, suggesting he has plenty left in the tank.

12. Francisco Cordero, CIN - Cordero enjoyed one of his finest seasons just in time to cash in with a big money free agent deal from the Reds. However, this one has warning lights all over it. There’s a reason he’s bounced around so much in the past three years - the dude is inconsistent. Of greater concern is the fact that his home ERA was 1.09 compared to 6.55 on the road last season. With him heading to one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors - especially for home runs - I’d be worried if I owned him. Expect results closer to 2006 (or worse) rather than 2007.

13. Trevor Hoffman, SD - Much has been made of Hoffman’s high profile, late-season blown saves, but it may be premature to write him off completely. While I’m a tad concerned over his slipping control, the fact remains that only K-Rod has more saves over the past three years.

14. Brad Lidge, PHA - For all the flak he’s taken, Lidge actually had a much better season in 2007, improving the control issues that wrecked his 2006. He was also better on the road (2.89) last season, a promising sign with him leaving Houston. However, pitching in Philly will be no picnic. It’s a good hitter’s park and is especially prone to the long ball, something that worries me greatly with Lidge given his history of allowing psychologically-damaging dingers and the fact that his groundball rate slipped significantly last year.

15. Huston Street, OAK - The 2005 AL ROY ran into his first serious injury problems last season, missing over two months with an elbow issue. When healthy, he was a bit more susceptible to the long ball, but compensated for that with improved command. Street is very difficult to hit, and if healthy, he could easily be a top 10 closer.

16. Matt Capps, PIT - This “closer of the future” inherited the job at the beginning of June last season and had an extremely solid 2007. Superb control has been one of the keys to Capps’ success; he’s limited opponents to a mere 28 base-on-balls over 160 innings pitched in his short MLB career. Anyone that can intentionally drill big Prince Fielder clearly also has the desired “no fear” mentality - something that all closers need - down pat.

17. Manny Corpas, COL - A combination of ineffectiveness and a rib cage injury to Brian Fuentes opened the door for Corpas in 2007 and he never looked back. That stellar 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP bode well for him heading into 2008. Do be aware that if Corpas does struggle in 2008, the Rockies have a proven closer in Fuentes waiting in the wings.

18. Rafael Soriano, ATL - We’ve seen back-to-back great years from this former uber-prospect out of the Mariners’ system. With those two lost years (2004-2005) now well behind him, the closing gig’s all his heading into 2008. When healthy, Soriano has the potential to be totally dominating. Quite possibly, 2008 could see Soriano making a rapid ascent in the overall closer rankings.

19. B.J. Ryan, TOR - It was a lost 2007 for the Jays’ stopper, having undergone Tommy John surgery at the beginning of May. Ryan is currently on schedule to be ready early in the 2008 season, but as we all know, it is a long road back from this surgery. One should temper their expectations for this coming year.

20. Joakim Soria, KC - This former second overall pick in the 2006 Rule 5 draft came out of nowhere to post some truly outstanding numbers in his 2007 rookie campaign. With the Dotel trade at the beginning of August, Soria stepped into the closer role and didn’t look back. He represents another perfect example of why we don’t overspend for saves come draft day.

21. Carlos Marmol, CHC - It looks like a three horse race for the closer gig with the Cubbies this spring and those 96 Ks in 69 1/3 innings pitched look awful solid. If Marmol can keep those bases on balls down, he has the skills to be a top notch closer given the opportunity. And really, does anyone think Kerry Wood will be healthy come mid-March?

22. Tony Pena, ARZ - Arizona has another closing job up for grabs this spring. Pena certainly has the stuff to be a top closer and is the current favourite to win the job. For those drafting early I’d certainly want to make every effort to tie Pena with Brandon Lyon, just in case.

23. Todd Jones, DET - Joel Zumaya, the “closer of the future” in Tiger Town, keeps moving the date farther back and good old Jones just keeps on getting one more curtain call. He allows too many hits, walks a few too many and averages a strikeout every other appearance. But the gig is his until Zumaya returns healthy or that 40-year-old arm finally falls off.

24. Eric Gagne, MIL - It was a tale of two cities for Gagne in 2007. He was a very effective closer in Texas, but had a total meltdown in Beantown. Gagne still managed to parlay that lack of success in Boston into a one-year, $10 million deal with Milwaukee for 2008. Adding to the constant health concerns with Gagne, being named in the Mitchell Report could result in a possible suspension to commence 2008.

25. Kevin Gregg, FLA - A strained forearm in September put a bit of a damper on an otherwise excellent season for Gregg. He has to cut down a bit on the free passes, but enters 2008 owning the closer gig. In an interesting side note here, Gregg recently re-upped for $2.5 million, making him the highest paid Marlin heading into 2008 and probably trade bait by mid-season.

26. Joe Borowski, CLE - Eventually, his propensity for turning three-run saves into one-run saves will cost him his job in Cleveland. The job is still Borowski’s to lose, but with Rafael Betancourt and Masahide Kobayashi both waiting in the wings (not to mention several other great arms in the Indians’ pen), don’t be at all surprised to see a change before the end of 2008.

27. Troy Percival, TB - Percival turned in one of the feel-good stories of 2007. After a nearly two-year hiatus, he turned up in St. Louis and performed remarkably well. Percival converted that into the full-time gig in Tampa on a two- year deal for $8 million. Health will always be an issue here so potential fantasy owners should have Al Reyes handy, just in case.

28. Brian Wilson, SF - A rough Spring Training led to a demotion to Triple-A Fresno to start the 2007 season. A sore arm and appendectomy delayed his return until mid-August. A solid September has positioned him as the pre-season favourite to close for the Giants in 2008.

29. C.J. Wilson, TEX - The 27-year-old lefty had a decent 2007, filling the void when Gagne was traded at the deadline. The Rangers plan on entering the season with Wilson, Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit, and Kaz Fukumori all battling for late inning duties, so Wilson’s perch at the top of the heap entering 2008 is a most precarious one to say the least.

30. Jeremy Accardo, TOR - The “back” injury to Ryan and subsequent Tommy John surgery thrust Accardo into the closer role for the Jays in 2007. Thirty saves with an ERA of 2.14 certainly proved he was up to the task. With Ryan on schedule to return early in 2008, Accardo will be returning to his former set-up role. Expect some early saves until Ryan proves he’s game ready.

Best of the Rest

31. Brandon Lyon, ARZ
32. Jonathan Broxton, LAD
33. Scot Shields, LAA
34. Kerry Wood, CHC
35. Bob Howry, CHC
36. Derrick Turnbow, MIL
37. Yasuhiko Yabuta, KC
38. Masahide Kobayashi, CLE
39. Pat Neshek, MIN
40. Joel Zumaya, DET
41. Rafael Betancourt, CLE
42. Tyler Walker, SF
43. Jamie Walker, BAL
44. Chad Bradford, BAL
45. Heath Bell, SD
46. Hideki Okajima, BOS
47. Aaron Heilman, NYM
48. Brandon Morrow, SEA
49. Octavio Dotel, CWS
50. Jon Rauch, WAS
51. Alan Embree, OAK
52. Al Reyes, TB
53. Joaquin Benoit, TEX
54. Kazuo Fukumori, TEX
55. Eddie Guardado, TEX
56. Matt Guerrier, MIN
57. James Hoey, BAL
58. Justin Speier, LAA
59. Chad Qualls, ARZ
60. David Weathers, CIN
61. Brad Hennessey, SF
62. Scott Linebrink, CWS
63. Armando Benitez, FA
64. Tom Gordon, PHA
65. Brian Fuentes, COL
66. George Sherrill, SEA
67. Matt Lindstrom, FLA
68. Carlos Villaneuva, MIL
69. Keith Foulke, FA

Cheat Sheet Archives

2008 Preseason

Starting Pitchers
Outfielders

2007

Third basemen
Shortstops
Second basemen
First basemen
Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

 

2008 Pre-Season Starting Pitcher Rankings

NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy is nearing the top of the class.
Jake Peavy is now the best in the business in the Senior Circuit.

We’re ramping up our rankings as Spring Training nears. Today, we’ll tackle starting pitchers, of which there is an exciting cadre of youngsters who have taken over from the old guard. It’s a brave new world for young arms, and keeper league owners in particular need to take a closer look at the number of money-in-the-bank options that are currently out there. Next up, watch for our relief pitchers rankings, but for now, enjoy your fix of SP talk.

1. Johan Santana, MIN - Despite what has to be perceived as an “off year,” Santana managed to raise his K rate and win at least 15 games for the fourth straight season. He’s become slightly more hittable three years running, but at the age of 28, he could still get better. If he lands on the Yankees, BoSox or Mets - the three main suitors currently after him - watch Santana’s wins go through the roof. In very early mock drafts, Santana has been lasting surprisingly long, so it’s a situation an astute owner may be able to capitalize on.

2. Jake Peavy, SD - Peavy earned the NL Cy Young after enjoying a career year, setting new personal bests in wins and strikeouts. Home park advantage, talented, improving, durable and young. Peavy has the potential to be one of our generation’s finest pitchers before all is said and done.

3. Brandon Webb, ARZ - Because of his workhorse tendencies, Webb really racks up the decisions, certainly a consideration in leagues where losses factor in. I’m a bit worried about the mileage on his arm, but he’s shown no signs of letting up, and as the ace of a strong Diamondback rotation, Webb should remain among the best bets in the NL for years to come.

4. John Lackey, LAA - After enjoying a career season, this bulldog of a pitcher is just coming into his own as an elite fantasy stud, and an AL Cy Young wouldn’t be surprising at all in 2008. Lackey, who has become much more of a pitcher than a thrower in recent years, leads a very strong Angels’ rotation.

5. C.C. Sabathia, CLE - Vastly improved command allowed Sabathia to take his game to the next level last season despite the highest BAA of his career. The big man has done a consistent job keeping the ball on the ground and out of the seats the past few years and that’s allowed him to become the ace of what’s shaping up as a solid Indian staff. Sabathia may have a tough time defending his AL Cy Young title, but unless his command deteriorates, expect similar quality results in 2008.

6. Josh Beckett, BOS - Beckett rebounded brilliantly after a tough first season in Boston, chalking up a Cy Young-worthy season. Completely over the blister problems that plagued him earlier in his career, Beckett is just coming into his own as a true ace, capable of racking up 200 innings consistently and learning to pitch with the kind of pinpoint control that should make him a big-time winner for years to come.

7. Erik Bedard, BAL - Fresh off his finest - albeit injury-shortened - season, Bedard is drawing tons of interest as a potential trade target, so his value will definitely be affected by wherever he lands, if Baltimore does in fact move the lefty. It’s worth noting that his ERA was well over half a run higher away from Camden Yards, so watch this situation closely.

8. Carlos Zambrano, CHC - Big Z frustrated the hell out of his owners last year by starting like a stuck pig, then becoming the hottest pitcher in the game for two months, only to finish like a bum. Despite his scattered season and the highest ERA he’s had in a full season, Zambrano had a career high in wins.

9. Justin Verlander, DET - Verlander showed nice progress in his sophomore season, reducing the number of long balls he allowed and tossing in a no-hitter for good measure. Just 24, there’s plenty of room for growth for the Tigers’ ace.

10. Dan Haren, ARZ - Haren enjoyed a tremendous season, overcoming an increase in walks by upping his Ks. Arizona opened its prospect vault to land him, but note that Haren was only a slightly above average starter after the break. Don’t go too crazy in expecting another low-3.00 ERA this year.

11. Roy Oswalt, HOU - I have my concerns about a severe weakening in Oswalt’s command and slightly more hittable stuff in 2007. Fortunately, it didn’t skew his results too much, given that he compensated somewhat by surrendering less home runs. Overall, Oswalt has been a very consistent pitcher throughout his career, and if he can continue on this track for another seven or eight years, he might be worthy of Hall of Fame attention.

12. Roy Halladay, TOR - Although his groundball rate has decreased the past two years, Halladay is still one of the best in the business in terms of using his fielders. That’s one of the main reasons for his owners to get excited about having the Doc pitching in front of Scott Rolen instead of Troy Glaus. A major workhorse, Halladay did a much better job of keeping the ball in the park last season - a good thing considering the normally stingy Toronto ace was guilty of issuing a few more walks in 2007.

13. Felix Hernandez, SEA - At the tender age of 21, King Felix has already shown himself to be a durable starter with tremendous potential as a power pitcher. Although his strikeout rate slipped, I’m stoked about his increasing groundball rates and corresponding decrease in homers allowed. Be patient - Hernandez will break through very soon, quite conceivably this season.

14. Scott Kazmir, TB - Kazmir finally stayed healthy and began to really start to deliver on his tremendous promise. He’s going to be arbitration eligible after this season, so it’s time to start wondering how long he’ll remain a Ray. Another season of progression - especially if he continues to trend into more of a groundball pitcher - will make him a rich young man very soon.

15. Cole Hamels, PHA - Hamels took a huge step forward in 2007, and I believe he’s poised for another big leap in 2008, but he’ll have to remain healthy. Long balls will continue to be an issue as long as he pitches out of CBP, but Hamels is yet another young arm ready to lead the next generation of pitching studs.

16. John Smoltz, ATL - Combining with Tim Hudson, Smoltz gives the Braves one of the better one-two punches in the National League. Sure, he’s 40, but the man can still eat up the innings, and judging by a second half in which he fanned 101 batters in 100 innings, Smoltz is still capable of dominating.

17. Fausto Carmona, CLE - The smartest thing the Indians did was end the Carmona-as-closer experiment from 2006. Moved back to starting full time last year, Carmona simply took off, quickly developing into a major workhorse. I’m a bit worried about his ability to take the ball every fifth day given his massive increase in workload last year, but Carmona’s second half numbers showed no signs of wear.

18. Aaron Harang, CIN - Harang has quietly turned into one of the most consistent and quality starters in the game. He’s durable and could still have a bit of room for improvement, but even if he’s leveled off, Harang is a very solid bet in the sea of uncertainty that is the starting pitcher pool.

19. Javier Vazquez, CWS - Not only did Vazquez improve his control last year, but he upped his K rate as well. Had he not been pitching for a substandard White Sox team, he would have likely set a new career high in wins. Chris Young’s emergence in Arizona last year must have stung the Sox, as he was a key part of the package needed to land Vazquez, but Vazquez’s solid season took the edge off that somewhat.

20. Tim Hudson, ATL - Three seasons after being offloaded by the A’s, Hudson enjoyed his finest NL season to date. The gopheritis problems he experienced during his first two seasons in Atlanta completely evaporated, and the substandard results - especially from 2006 - followed. Hudson’s K rate slipped significantly, but he’s learning to keep the ball on the ground even more than normal to compensate for this deficiency.

21. Brett Myers, PHA - The addition of Brad Lidge will send Myers back to the rotation, where he is sure to have much more value. I’m concerned about the increased workload he’ll be taking on, and the fact that he missed a year of development as a starter during a key time in his career. Still, Myers could very easily pull a Smoltz here.

22. A.J. Burnett, TOR - Well, Burnett stayed a bit healthier in his second season with the Jays, and when he pitched, he was very solid, but I still worry about his long-term future. With his talent, the fact that the Jays’ No. 2 starter is barely churning out double digits in wins is cause for concern.

23. Matt Cain, SF - The trade rumours involving Cain just won’t seem to go away, but given his development into a young workhorse, I’m not overly concerned about the prospect of him potentially leaving a great pitcher’s park, especially since he was actually much harder to hit in his road starts last season.

24. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS - Should we be disappointed with Dice-K’s results considering how high the expectations were? Hey, he still had a decent ERA, struck out over 200 batters and won 15 games, all the while dealing with the glare of the spotlight. Clearly, Matsuzaka tired down the stretch, a situation I expect he’ll be better prepared for this year.

25. Chris Young, SD - Young, a 6′10″, 260-pound behemoth of a man, deserved a much better fate than the nine games he won last year. He did a fantastic job keeping the ball in the park, set a new career high in Ks, and was harder to hit than ever before. If Young can avoid the nagging injuries, there’s no reason he shouldn’t set a career high in wins in 2008.

26. James Shields, TB - The Rays uncovered a real gem in Shields, a 16th round pick way back in 2000. After enjoying a breakout campaign last year, Shields looks poised to continue his development as a workhorse starter capable of helping in big way in both Ks and wins.

27. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY - Wang, the likely Opening Day starter for the Yankees (barring a deal for Santana, of course), has proved durable and consistent since joining the Pinstripers. He deserved a lower ERA last season, based on being harder to hit, improving his modest K rates, and surrendering fewer homers. A 20-win, 3.50 season is definitely reasonable in 2008, especially if he avoids the DL.

28. Ben Sheets, MIL - The Brewers’ ace continues to find it difficult to make it through a full season. He enjoyed the best record of his career, but his K/9 dropped significantly and he’s trending more and more into a flyball pitcher, so I have some concerns here as the homer total rises.

29. Kelvim Escobar, LAA - The former Jays’ closer has become a very dependable tier two starter. He’s not exactly a workhorse, but he’s been consistent enough to be a solid fantasy bet. Escobar’s K/9 bounced back a bit after sliding in 2006, and that helped him put a very strong season - one that would have been even greater if not for a late-season swoon.

30. Tim Lincecum, SF - Lincecum has quickly become one of the most popular Giants after turning in a very strong rookie year in which he averaged better than a strikeout per inning. I love the fact that after his first rough patch (in June), he was able to bounce back and pitch brilliantly in July, leading to a excellent second half. Once his control is sharpened, the sky is the limit with this kid.

31. Brad Penny, LAD - Pitching to contact suited Penny, as he enjoyed the finest season of his career, despite a much-reduced strikeout rate. However, by proving less hittable and doing a superb job of luring groundballs at a higher rate than ever before, the Dodgers’ ace was able to enjoy a tremendous season, especially for those in 4×4 leagues.

32. Jeff Francis, COL - This Canadian southpaw has become a real workhorse, enjoying a nice hike in his strikeouts last season. The homers surrendered are a concern, but might have been an anomaly given Francis’ rising groundball rate. It’s unfortunate that Francis took a bitch slapping in his World Series start, because the world deserves to know how good he’s become.

33. Oliver Perez, NYM - Perez certainly seemed to return from the abyss last season after a couple of years of complete fantasy irrelevance. His strikeout rate was back up, his command was finally acceptable and he won 15 games for the first time. I’d definitely like to see him revert back into more of a neutral pitcher as opposed to a flyball pitcher, but 2007 was an extremely promising year for Perez, who is still just 26.

34. Mark Buehrle, CWS - Buehrle wasn’t quite as durable as normal last season, but he’s still started at least 30 games in seven straight years, winning double digits each time. You’ve got to go back almost 50 years to find the last White Sox starter to enjoy seven consecutive seasons of at least 10 wins. That kind of consistency is worth bidding on.

35. Chad Billingsley, LAD - After the Dodgers shifted him to the rotation full-time, Billingsley really settled into the role in the second half. A veritable babe in the woods, Billingsley displayed much-improved command, a definite sign he’s well on his way to becoming a front-line starter.

36. Jeremy Bonderman, DET - Bonderman looked to be breaking out in the first half, but he crashed and burned bad after the break, and ultimately had to be shut down. But he’s just 25, so let’s not dare think of giving up on him. Once he achieves a modicum of consistency, Bonderman will take the next step forward.

37. John Maine, NYM - Where would the Mets have been last season if not for Maine’s tremendous breakout campaign? While I’d like to see Maine reduce his walks, he definitely made up for it with a massively improved strikeout rate. He was a bit more hittable last season, but has quickly established himself as a tremendous source of wins on a great Mets’ squad.

38. Dustin McGowan, TOR - This young starter took a huge leap forward in 2007, and likely deserved better results given his superb .230 BAA. I’m expecting him to build on this campaign in 2008. Major sleeper alert here.

39. Yovani Gallardo, MIL - Part of a great young core of Brewers who have helped reshape this sad-sack organization into a contender, Gallardo was quite impressive in his rookie season, proving to be very difficult to hit. Considering how well he handed the bigs at the age of 21, we’re looking at a very special pitcher here, one who will likely be top 25 or better by season’s end.

40. Rich Hill, CHC - Hill not only showed workhorse potential, but he displayed signs of becoming a big-time strikeout pitcher. If he can keep hitters off balance, he has a great chance to be a big winner on a strong Cubs’ team.

41. Pedro Martinez, NYM - Pedro hurt a lot of owners last season, taking nearly all year to make it back. But when he did finally get back on the mound, he showed no rust at all. Don’t expect miracles this year, but as Pedro nears the end of his excellent career, he’ll still be capable of helping your fantasy team.

42. Derek Lowe, LAD - Lowe’s peripherals last year actually surpassed his solid 2006 season, but long ball issues really hurt him. If he can address that problem, I’m expecting a major bounce back from one of the Dodgers’ top arms.

43. Andy Pettitte, NYY - The former All-Star returned to where it all began last season and he proved he can still be a valuable innings eater, enjoying a fine campaign in New York. Being on the Yanks pretty well guarantees him value as far as wins go, but it will be interesting to see how the Mitchell Report fallout affects Pettitte.

44. Ted Lilly, CHC - As long as you keep him away from his buddy John Gibbons, Lilly should be fine. He showed tremendously improved control in returning to the NL, allowing him to match his career best in wins. I’m worried about his trending into a flyball pitcher, however.

45. Joe Blanton, OAK - His record didn’t indicate it, but everything else pointed to a tremendous recovery for Blanton after a substandard 2006. He’s become a real workhorse and being less hittable with better control sure helped. Blanton has been discussed in plenty of trade rumours this offseason, but the latest indications are that he’ll be sticking around Oakland, which is a damn good thing when looking at his 2007 splits (2.69 at home; 5.11 on the road). Keeper league owners better watch this situation closely.

46. Ian Snell, PIT - Forget about his record; in looking at Snell’s constantly improving command - now almost at elite levels - the results will follow, don’t worry. VORP heads out there will be all over Snell - he was the Pirate leader in this department.

47. Adam Wainwright, STL - Now that Wainwright has established himself as a fine starter, making the transition back from closer, the Braves may be ruing the day they dealt him to St. Louis. I’d like to see Wainwright cut the walks, but I believe he has the chance to be an ace very soon.

48. Gil Meche, KC - Many eyebrows were raised when the Royals shelled out $55 million for Meche last offseason, but he came through with his finest season, earning the nod as KC’s Pitcher of the Year. Meche was quite successful pitching to contact, as his K rate slipped but he drew ground balls at a higher rate than ever before. If he can duplicate or better these results in 2008, you can definitely expect more than nine wins.

49. Tom Gorzelanny, PIT - Part of a strong front four on the Pirates, Gorzelanny drew plenty of interest from opposing teams this offseason, but Pittsburgh wisely decided to hang on to its young arms. With his improved strikeout rate, Gorzelanny was able to do something no other starter could do on the sub-70 win Buccos - finish with a winning record.

50. Jered Weaver, LAA - A key component of the Angels’ rotation of the next few years, Weaver suffered through some definite sophomore slumping, with his walk rate inching up, his Ks slipping and his hit rates rising dramatically. Expect him to improve upon his 2007 numbers this year, but it will be highly unlikely to touch what he did in 2006 any time soon.

51. Clay Buchholz, BOS - Because of the no-hitter, it’s easy to forget that this kid is a rookie with just three big-league starts under his belt. Buchholz will need to improve his control over the course of a full season, but it’s clear he has the stuff to move to the head of the class. Buchholz is yet another piece of evidence that the future of pitching is in good hands.

52. Joba Chamberlain, NYY - Chamberlain busted onto the scene last year, proving virtually untouchable down the stretch as a great bridge in the Yankees’ pen to Mariano Rivera. But now New York wants to make him a starter. Good idea? Time will tell, but you can rest assured the team will baby his arm this season.

53. Jon Garland, LAA - Dealt to the Angels this offseason for shortstop Orlando Cabrera, Garland gives the Halos a quality innings eater who has won double digits six years running. He was harder to hit last season, but mostly he was tough at home, despite pitching in a hitter’s park. I don’t expect his BAA to change much in LA, but Garland will likely benefit from a reduction in homers allowed pitching at Angel Stadium.

54. Barry Zito, SF - Zito is one of the highest paid arms in the game, but he certainly didn’t pitch like it in his first season in San Francisco. A K/9 that’s dipped three straight years worries me, but a second half in which he was harder to hit suggests that as the season progressed, Zito was beginning to learn how to pitch with the weight of his immense contract.

55. Phil Hughes, NYY - Hughes is a potential “ace” pitching prospect who, at 21, is still learning to deal with the day-to-day inconsistencies that come with youth. A strained hamstring injury in mid-summer certainly limited his effectiveness. The fact that Hughes was the subject of off-season trade rumours to the Twins for Santana, certainly illustrates that highly sought after future potential seen in him.

56. Jon Lester, BOS - Lester was definitely one of the feel good stories of the 2007 season. Diagnosed with lymphoma in September 2006, Lester managed to report to camp cancer free. An early forearm problem and inconsistencies plagued him in 2007. Lester has to limit those free passes to be effective, something he didn’t achieve last season. Cutting down on the walks would make Lester a very solid No. 3/4 starting pitcher in 2008.

57. Chuck James, ATL - The Braves’ southpaw had a challenging 2007, fading badly down the stretch. The sore shoulder that caused him to miss his final several starts was confirmed as a slight tear in his rotator cuff. If healthy, James has the potential to revert back to those 2006 numbers, making him a solid option at the back end of the rotation.

58. Francisco Liriano, MIN - Coming off a lost year due to Tommy John surgery, Liriano looks to be on schedule for Spring Training 2008. Without a doubt, the Twins will be very cautious early and probably have him on a strict pitch count. Still only 24, if Liriano can bounce back to anywhere near those amazing 2006 levels of production, you’ve got a major steal on your hands here. Watch the situation closely this spring.

59. Curt Schilling, BOS - Coming off a very solid 2007 campaign, at the age of 41, Schilling looks to be the most likely benefactor of that potential six-man rotation in Boston. The drastic reduction in that K rate should be of some concern, but was more than offset by his usual impeccable control. One of these years it most certainly will all end, but I’m not betting on that happening in 2008.

60. Zack Greinke, KC - A very inconsistent start to the 2007 campaign landed Greinke a place in the bullpen where he flourished, going 4-1 with a 3.54 ERA in 38 appearances. Thrust back into the rotation in late August, he tossed six quality starts and, heading into 2008, he looks poised to show off that high ceiling we’ve been expecting for what seems an eternity.

Best of the Rest

61. Tim Wakefield, BOS
62. Rich Harden, OAK
63. Noah Lowry, SF
64. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU
65. Dontrelle Willis, DET
66. Scott Baker, MIN
67. Hiroki Kuroda, LAD
68. Ian Kennedy, NYY
69. Matt Garza, MIN
70. Randy Johnson, ARZ
71. Shaun Marcum, TOR
72. Carlos Silva, SEA
73. Jeremy Guthrie, BAL
74. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
75. Boof Boonser, MIN
76. Greg Maddux, SD
77. Sean Marshall, CHC
78. Randy Wolf, SD
79. Dave Bush, MIL
80. Bronson Arroyo, CIN
81. Gio Gonzalez, OAK
82. Joel Pineiro, STL
83. Shawn Hill, WAS
84. Brian Bannister, KC
85. Jason Bergmann, WAS
86. Mark Prior, SD
87. Tom Glavine, ATL
88. Jeff Suppan, MIL
89. Scott Olsen, FLA
90. Doug Davis, ARZ
91. Mark Mulder, STL
92. Jarrod Washburn, SEA

Rankings Archive

2008 Pre-Season
Outfield

2007

Catchers
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop
Third Base

 

2008 Pre-Season Outfield Rankings

Matt Holliday is the most valuable fantasy outfielder in the game.
After a near-MVP season, Matt Holliday has risen to the top of the outfielder rankings. (AP Photos)

1. Matt Holliday, COL - Holliday just missed out on his first MVP Award, and although he struggled in the playoffs, there’s no doubt he’s arrived as a major offensive stud. Note, however, that 25 of his 36 homers came at Coors, where he also hit 75 points higher.

2. Vlad Guerrero, LAA - Despite the occasional minor health woe, Guerrero has stayed fairly durable over the years, and he tied his career high with 45 doubles last year. Unfortunately, the doubles binge was not an incremental gain, as his homers slipped, but with an eighth season of a 950 OPS or better, Vladdy’s predigree is unquestionable. Now if only the Halos would get him that long awaited protection in the batting order. Perhaps Torii Hunter will help in this regard.

3. Carl Crawford, TB - Because of his speed, BA and modest pop, Crawford is one of the most sought-after commodities in all of fantasy baseball. While his steals slipped a bit last year, he has become a more productive hitter and he finished with a career-best .315 BA. Here’s a scary thought - he’s 26 and is closing in on 300 career steals already.

4. Ichiro Suzuki, SEA - Ichiro has been the model of consistency since arriving in Seattle from Japan, racking up a boatload of Gold Gloves while perennially challenging for the batting title and being among the league leaders in swipes. Fantasy gold, baby.

5. Carlos Lee, HOU - Now that Miguel Tejada is an Astro, Lee - already one of the most prolific run producers in the game - will be that much more dangerous. Lee set a career high in hits last season, hits for power and average and generally is good for double digits in steals. Oh, and he’s played 162 games three straight seasons. Money in the bank.

6. Grady Sizemore, CLE - Since 2004, exactly two centrefielders have hit .280 and accumulated at least 75 dingers - Sizemore and Aaron Rowand. He still strikes out too much, but Sizemore took a big step forward in his on-base skills last year, adding to an already impressive across-the-board game.

7. Carlos Beltran, NYM - One of two players in Royals’ history to lead the team in RBI for three straight seasons, Beltran was unable to match his power surge of 2006 when he set a career best in homers. Still, he had his highest SB total since 2004 and he hit well over .290 after the break.

8. Eric Byrnes, ARZ - Part of a great group of young Diamondback outfielders, Byrnes put up a stellar season, one which would have been even stronger had it not been for a horrible August and September. Still, power (30 doubles, eight triples, 21 homers), speed (50 SB) and average (.286) is always an irresistible combination.

9. Adam Dunn, CIN - Forty-homer seasons are becoming a safe bet for this slugger (that’s four straight), so no wonder the Yanks tried to pry him loose last summer. Dunn, who even cut his prodigious strikeout rates, is coming off perhaps his finest season.

10. Alfonso Soriano, CHC - The Cubs shelled out $136 million to land Soriano last offseason, and they didn’t exactly get the kind of return they were hoping for in Year One of the deal. First, he missed a month with a quad injury, an injury that really cut into his production. The news wasn’t all bad, however. Soriano trimmed his K rate and maintained his solid power totals, thanks to a massive September (14 homers) that could portend great things for 2008.

11. Manny Ramirez, BOS - Manny’s power numbers dropped substantially last season, but before we write him off, consider this elite list: Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds and Jim Thome. Those are the only four players who have more home runs than Ramirez since 1997. After enjoying his first 100-walk season in 2006, Man-Ram slipped badly last year, so if he can re-establish his patient approach, the long balls will return.

12. Nick Markakis, BAL - After his first .300 season, one in which he stepped up his power game and developed a running game, Markakis is virtually the only untouchable Oriole now. I’m a bit concerned about the rising K rate, but this is just a 24-year-old, and the sky is the limit here.

13. Curtis Granderson, DET - Granderson enjoyed a season for the ages last year with 84 extra-base hits, including at least 20 doubles, triples and homers - a tremendously rare occurrence. His leap as a hitter makes you wonder if he might have peaked already. Granderson is young enough to still have upside, but I have my doubts if he’ll be able to duplicate his 2007.

14. Torii Hunter, LAA - Considered one of the “good guys” in the game, lifelong Twin Hunter said Adios to Minny when the Angels came knocking with $90 million over five years. Of course, the perennial Gold Glover picked an ideal time to enjoy one of the finest seasons of his career, setting personal bests in games, at-bats, runs, hits, doubles and RBI and slugging over .500 for the first time since 2002.

15. B.J. Upton, TB - Okay, so he’s no longer a shortstop. That’s the bad news. The good news is he enjoyed a breakout season and achieved a level of consistency we’ve been anticipating for what seems years. He flashed his just-scraping-the-surface power and developed much more patience while enjoying his first .300 season. Did we mention he’s just 23?

16. Alex Rios, TOR - Rios enjoyed a second straight fine year as he continues to develop into a very productive ballplayer with improving on-base skills. Yet, the Jays are talking about dealing him to the Giants for Tim Lincecum, a deal that likely will never happen now that the Giants have landed Rowand.

17. Magglio Ordonez, DET - Maggs had an MVP season last year, but unfortunately, he opted to do so in a season when virtually any accomplishment would have to take a backseat to A-Rod’s exploits. Ordonez enjoyed one of his finer power seasons, and has remained durable the past two seasons after two injury-marred years.

18. Bobby Abreu, NYY - Abreu still brings a vast array of tools to the table, not the least of which is his durability. Even so, the Yanks are expecting him to arrive at camp in better shape than he did last year. Abreu no longer a 30-homer threat, but he is still capable of wracking up big numbers in the extra-base hit department.

19. Delmon Young, MIN - Sure, we expected to see more power by now, but I think we need to put things in perspective with Young. He’s 22 and has just completed his first full season as a major leaguer. There’s a lot to be excited about, perhaps most of all the fact that he’ll get a fresh start in Minnesota.

20. Vernon Wells, TOR - Shoulder woes dogged Wells all season, but he ostensibly corrected that issue with post-season surgery. Does that mean he’ll return to 2006 levels this year? I doubt it, but we’ll certainly see a far better player than we did in 2007.

21. Hideki Matsui, NYY - Godzilla, long an iron man, has run into major injury issues the past two years, and while he only missed 19 games last season, a knee injury made him a shell of himself down the stretch. Still, if an “off year” is 100 runs and 25 homers with a .285 BA, I’ll take that, thank you very much. I suppose there’s some worry that over half his homers came in one month of the season, but if Matsui’s knee is sound, I’m expecting a big year. And don’t worry about the rumour of him headed to the Giants for Lincecum - it ain’t gunna happen.

22. Brad Hawpe, COL - Hawpe enjoyed a breakout season, but his run total was limited by hitting sixth in the lineup. Should he get the opportunity to move up higher, I like him even more from a fantasy perspective, as his overall development as a hitter is coming along very nicely. From the sounds of it, though, Hawpe is locked into the six hole. He’s right in his power prime.

23. Juan Pierre, LAD - The Dodgers were unhappy enough with Pierre in centrefield that they went out and signed Andruw Jones, shifting Pierre to a corner, most likely left field. You’ve got to love the speed that Pierre keeps bringing, however. He enjoyed the finest base stealing season of his career from a success rate standpoint in 2007, and I don’t seem him slowing down next year. He’ll retain great fantasy value as long as he helps you take home first in the SB category.

24. Aaron Rowand, SF - The Giants, desperate for a hitter with Barry Bonds not expected back, shelled out $60 million for five years of Rowand’s services. With his contract ending, Rowand picked a great time to set career highs in virtually every offensive category, but how will he fare as the go-to guy in this offense? Well, I don’t think his BA will slip that much; Rowand will likely bat .300 again, especially with the gains in batting eye he’s shown. But 27 homers is highly unlikely to be repeated. I’ll be surprised if Rowand reaches 20 this year. The RBI and runs will plummet too, in a much weaker offense.

25. Jason Bay, PIT - Thanks to Russell Martin’s huge year, Bay was denied his third Tip O’Neill Award in four years (given to Canada’s top ballplayer). But let’s face it - Bay was just a shell of himself in 2007. Both his power and on-base numbers took precipitous falls last year. We’re expecting a big rebound from Bay in 2008, perhaps not to 2005 levels, but certainly splitting the difference from 2006 and last year.

26. Raul Ibanez, SEA - Ibanez’s runs and RBI were hurt on a weak Mariner team last year, so expecting a bounce back to a degree is reasonable. But of bigger concern is that some of his homers are turning into doubles. What I’d really like to see is a move away from Safeco, for that will boost Ibanez’s value more than anything.

27. Jeff Francoeur, ATL - Less homers and more doubles is not a trend you like to see, but Francouer is young enough for me not to worry. He’s a very productive hitter who should continue to improve and the fact that he started swiping the odd base last year while showing a marked improvement in his patience bodes well for his overall development. Expect Francoeur to be top 20 outfielder this time next year.

28. Shane Victorino, PHA - Victorino showed modest improvements last year, but the fact that his batting eye was much better is very promising as he develops into one of the game’s better top-of-the-order threats. If he can continue that trend, perhaps the Phils will finally move him to the top of the order, allowing Jimmy Rollins to take over as the three-hole hitter.

29. Andruw Jones, LAD - Jones, coming of the worst season of his career, takes over as the new Dodger centerfielder. Let’s hope Jones can rediscover the patience he was showing when he starting breaking through with superstar numbers, because if he keeps flailing away like he did last year, things will go even further south. I like his prospects in Dodger Stadium, no longer a pitcher’s park, so expect Jones to rebound back to at least .250 with over 30 homers.

30. Chris Young, ARZ - Talented and tender-aged Young has tremendous potential and he should mature along with the rest of these baby snakes. The power and speed are already fantastic. Now if he would just show mediocre on-base skills, Young’s runs would soar well over 100.

31. Pat Burrell, PHA - Burrell is expected to again bat fifth in the potent Phillies’ lineup, meaning he’ll be in line for plenty of RBI. He played a bigger role with the team last season, returning to the 30-homer plateau for the third time in his career. Better yet, he actually cut his strikeouts and enjoyed his first .400 OBP season. If Burrell continues to show improvements in his batting eye, he could surpass his career year of 2002 this season.

32. Johnny Damon, NYY - For the second straight season, Damon’s batting average slipped, and at age 34, we have seen the best that he has to offer. Because of his steals, he’ll still make a big contribution to your team, but don’t expect him to couple the thefts with a .300 BA any longer.

33. Ken Griffey Jr., CIN - Griffey, one of the most popular players in the game, rebounded nicely last year, cracking 30 dingers for the ninth time in his career. The patience he showed last year will stead the aging and brittle Griffey very well as he takes one more kick at the can to hold off Father Time.

34. Corey Hart, MIL - Hart, who remains under control by Milwaukee for the next four years, is part of a great young core of talent the Brewers have put together as they attempt to take the next step and secure a playoff spot. Given a full-time gig last year, Hart broke through as one of the more pleasant surprises in the game. His power/speed/average combo made many a fantasy owner drool, and there’s definitely room for growth here.

35. Josh Willingham, FLA - A key component of the seemingly never-ending Marlin rebuilding efforts, Willingham’s BA has been sliding south the past couple of years, but he should score plenty of runs in an improving Florida offense this season.

36. Kosuke Fukudome, CHC - The Cubs landed the biggest NPB prize this offseason, signing Fukudome to a four-year, $48 million deal. He’s dealt with some injury issues in recent years, but no one doubts his ability to produce when he’s in the lineup. In nine seasons in Japan, Fukudome is a lifetime .305 hitter.

37. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS - Hotshot rookie Ellsbury, who had an immediate impact on the Boston attack, had been talked about as trade bait in Sox’ attempt to land Johan Santana, but that notion seems to have cooled. Wherever he’s playing, expect Ellsbury to pile up serious runs as an offensive instigator of the first order. He’s the real deal.

38. Jermaine Dye, CWS - Undeterred by his offseason, the Sox poured money into Dye, giving him a two-year, $22 million extension last summer. Obviously, they have faith in his ability to bounce back to his MVP-type performance in 2006, but I definitely want to see Dye show more patience next year if he’s going to rebound.

39. Jose Guillen, KC - Guillen will miss the first 15 games of the season with a PED-related suspension, but that didn’t stop the Royals from spending $36 million for three years of his time. He enjoyed a tremendous bounce-back last season, although his power wasn’t overwhelming for a corner outfielder.

40. Nick Swisher, CWS - Hamstring issues and a suspension cost him a couple of weeks, but Swisher continued his emergence as one of the better OBP machines in the AL - making him a prototypical Billy Beane disciple. Although he was unable to duplicate his 2006 power breakout, he is just entering his prime power years, so expect a bounce back. The question is, now that Swisher is arbitration eligible, how much longer will he remain in Oakland? [And sure, enough, almost immediately after we wrote this, Swisher was dealt to the White Sox. Hitting in Cellular will provide a boost to his numbers; reflected here in his ranking.]

41. Willy Taveras, COL - When healthy, Taveras was able to cut his strikeout rate and his BA soared as a result. The former Astro prospect is one of the steadier sources of steals in the game today.

42. Michael Cuddyer, MIN - Michael Cuddyer is part of a group of four corner outfielders vying for two spots in Minnesota, so he can ill afford to take another hit in the power and speed categories as he did last season. Given his improved batting eye, I’m expecting Cuddyer to enjoy a career year, at least in terms of batting average, but if his numbers against righties continue to fade, he could be in serious trouble as far as PT goes.

43. Hunter Pence, HOU - Pence provided a glimpse into the future for the Astros last season, showing great power potential. I’d like to see him cut his Ks, but with Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio gone, Pence looks like the future face of the franchise.

44. Jeremy Hermida, FLA - Hermida, who spent most of 2007 batting sixth, could be moved into the two-hole, where his run total should improve dramatically. I’m a bit worried about his rising strikeout rate, but Hermida is just 23 and has tremendous power/average potential.

45. Lastings Milledge, WAS - The Nats truly believe that the Mets’ problem child is the kind of impact, middle-of-the-order bat they can build around. Milledge is certainly young enough to turn into a star, but questions about his attitude continue to dog him. Still, Milledge showed enough overall development at the plate last year to make us think New York’s trash could be Washington’s treasure.

46. Rocco Baldelli, TB - Are you getting sick of waiting for a return on your investment from this guy? He’s played just 127 games over the past three seasons because of injuries, yet he’s only 26 years old. Last season was a writeoff for Baldelli, as his power completely disappeared, and he looked lost, striking out far too often. Yet, with his talent, and relative youth, we can’t dare give up on him just yet.

47. Matt Kemp, LAD - Kemp made great strides as a hitter last season; no wonder the Dodgers were loathe to part with him in any off-season deals. Double-digit homers and steals in less than a half-season worth of at-bats? This is a guy you’ve got to watch closely this year.

48. Barry Bonds, FA - Assuming he actually continues his career, let’s hope it’s with an American League club, where he won’t be pulled from the field in the seventh inning every night for defensive purposes. If Bonds gets the at-bats, he’s proved he’ll be productive. Oakland refuses to go away as the likeliest candidate for his services.

49. Jason Kubel, MIN - Kubel, part of a crowded Minnesota outfield, had a productive season, showing he’s all the way back from his horrific 2005 injury. Assuming he can carve out 450 or more at-bats, consider Kubel a major breakout candidate for 2008.

50. David DeJesus, KC - DeJesus stayed healthy last year, but his numbers slipped dramatically. Still, he’s young enough to bounce back and perhaps continue to develop his speed game.

The Best of the Rest

51. J.D. Drew, BOS
52. Bill Hall, MIL
53. Melky Cabrera, NYY
54. Colby Rasmus, STL
55. Cameron Maybin, FLA
56. Austin Kearns, WAS
57. Gary Matthews Jr., LAA
58. Jay Bruce, CIN
59. Adam Jones, SEA
60. Franklin Gutierrez, CLE
61. Moises Alou, NYM
62. Matt Diaz, ATL
63. Felix Pie, CHC
64. Wily Mo Pena, WAS
65. Jerry Owens, CWS
66. Corey Patterson, BAL
67. Chris Duncan, STL
68. Mike Cameron, FA
69. Garret Anderson, LAA
70. Coco Crisp, BOS
71. Ryan Church, NYM
72. Mark Teahen, KC
73. Jim Edmonds, SD
74. Josh Hamilton, TEX
75. Dave Roberts, SF

2007 Rankings Archive

Catchers
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop
Third Base

 

Week 17 Quarterback Rankings

And here with our final QB rankings of the season.

1. Tom Brady at NY Giants

2. Kurt Warner vs. St. Louis

3. Drew Brees at Chicago

4. Peyton Manning vs. Tennessee

5. Derek Anderson vs. Cleveland

6. Brett Favre vs. Detroit

7. Marc Bulger at Arizona

8. Matt Hasselbeck at Atlanta

9. Carson Palmer at Miami

10. Donovan McNabb vs. Buffalo

 

Week 17 Running Back Rankings

Once again, we’re just going down and dirty this week with our final rankings of the year.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson at Oakland

2. Adrian Peterson at Denver

3. Brian Westbrook vs. Buffalo

4. Clinton Portis vs. Dallas

5. Stephen Jackson at Arizona

6. Jamal Lewis vs. San Francisco

7. Frank Gore at Cleveland

8. Kenny Watson at Miami

9. Joseph Addai vs. Tennessee

10. Ryan Grant vs. Detroit

11. Marshawn Lynch at Philadelphia

12. Michael Turner at Oakland

13. Lendale White at Indianapolis

14. Edgerrin James vs. St. Louis

15. Brandon Jacobs vs. New England