We’ve got more of the 2009-10 RotoRob NHL Draft Kit with the release of our list of the top 10 rookies. While you’re wondering how much of a difference Phil Kessel will make to the Maple Leafs this season, let’s examine some freshmen who could be difference makers. (How’s that for segue?)

It now comes to the time of the year where we have gone over the usual suspects. You already know the players that are a little more experienced. There was much research involved with this, but we came up with 10 rookies worth watching. Damn, this means I am probably going to get sued because I know it’s a Monty Python reference with shrubberies but oh well. Here is our list from the home office rumoured to be somewhere in New Jersey.

Top 10 Rookies

1. John Tavares, C, New York Islanders: It’s obvious why Tavares tops this list. He probably became bored playing in the OHL for three years before finally getting drafted in June by the Islanders. Tavares conquered the World Juniors and the OHL, so really complacency probably had set in by his 17th birthday not his 18th. Now the hype and expectations of a team’s fandom rests on his shoulders. I almost forgot that Mr. Tavares had three straight seasons of over 100 points in the OHL. All signs point to a steady player with a pretty good shot and playmaking ability that is along the level of a Zach Parise.

In theory, Tavares should win the Calder Trophy (Rookie Of The Year). If he does not, Islander Nation may revolt and burn down whatever is not bolted into the ground. Seriously, Tavares has the potential to produce anywhere from 55-75 points on this team with guys like Mark Streit, Kyle Okposo and Josh Bailey around. Add in a mentor like Doug Weight and you should get eggroll.

2. Matt Duchene, C, Colorado Avalanche: What, no Victor Hedman? Blasphemy was the words I heard I swear. However, Colorado’s Duchene has the highest potential to make a Fantasy impact because let’s face it — this team is all about rebuilding right now. Eventually the old vets will be shipped out by the deadline or sooner and this will be Paul Stastny’s team (another youngster). Duchene, by the way, had a glorious run for Brampton (OHL) last year. He scored 79 points in 57 games and then tallied 26 points in 21 games in the playoffs for the Battalian. Led by Duchene, Brampton beat the heavily-favoured London Knights along the way.

The question is what can we expect this season. Well, he is going to make the roster…that much is true. Duchene potentially could play on a line with Wojtek Wolski and Paul Stastny. That would not be bad. I really could see a year where he gets 45-50 points and makes a solid secondary scoring impact. Duchene has great hands, an above average shot and only a bit of an attitude to overcome. People have said worse things about the other top three picks in this year’s draft.

3. Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning: Yes, Hedman is No. 3. Now get over it. If Tampa was not such a circus, I would not be so worried about his player development. The good news is that it appears that Hedman is over that nagging shoulder injury that plagued him in the World Juniors and beyond. He’s also got a pretty good guy to learn from in coach Rick Tocchet. However, the revolving band of players and a team that may be more in love with its “French Connection II” line may not be the best thing for Hedman. Fortunately, he has the talent and ability to overcome all of those obstacles.

Another good thing for Hedman is he has fellow Swede Mattias Ohlund on his side. Signed from Vancouver in the offseason, Ohlund was a mainstay on the Canuck blueline and should be able to tutor Hedman in the fine art of defensive play in today’s NHL. It will be hard to predict how many points Hedman could get in Tampa but I will say this: he will make a sizable impact especially once that frame of his fills out. Expect lots of the feisty Hedman that you did not see in the WJC and maybe 25 points.

4. Cody Hodgson, C, Vancouver Canucks: Thanks to the assumed departure of Mats Sundin plus other circumstances, Hodgson will get more playing time. Well, honestly he is just too good. Keep in mind he is only 19, but Hodgson has already made an impact with Canuck brass by playing so poised in the AHL playoffs against Hershey. Yes, the Manitoba Moose forward only scored six points in 11 games, but it was his two-way game that had Canuck fans buzzing about the future. With Vancouver’s salary cap woes that future may be bumped up a bit.

I like the way Hodgson plays the game. He has some speed, but has a little bit of grit as well. I am not saying he will make the Canucks out of camp, but at some point in the season he is going to see sizable chunks of playing time. To project a point total would be a bit premature but he is very high up on this list based on potential similar to our next rookie…

5. John Carlson, D, Washington Capitals: Carlson is a former USHL stud who took his game to the OHL and then excelled there as well. The knock on him was his decision making and yet he did play excellent in his own end as Hershey went on to win the AHL Calder Cup over Manitoba last season. Carlson is kind of cut out of the Scott Stevens mold — he is a guy who can play big and physical, but will also be able to score. His OHL stats will tell you that: 76 points in 59 games and 65 PIMs to boot for London. I think the kid who I saw for the better part of five or six years in New Jersey has the talent.

Given how below average the Capital defense is, there is a distinct possibility that Carlson will be called up during the season and it will probably happen early in the campagin. After Mike Green there is not much else. Again, to predict a point total would be not very smart, but expect good things from here on out from a guy who is just a beast no matter the place or the time. It’s that simple, and it’s a scary thought.

6. James vanRiemsdyk, LW, Philadelphia Flyers: This guy is scary good, but it’s hard to tell what kind of potential he may have in the City Of Brotherly Love. The Flyer prospect played for Team USA and excelled in the WJC, did very well in college, and now is making a bit of a splash in training camp. I am not saying he will make the team out of camp, but he might — especially if injuries bite the Flyers like they normally do this time of year.

Most like JVR’s size (6′3″, 211), but I like his strength with the puck. He is the quintessential power forward in that sense and the kind of player that could flourish in the Flyer system. Something tells me we will see vanRiemsdyk in orange and black sooner rather than later, but he likely will start the season in the AHL. He is a guy to definitely watch for in 2009-10, but even moreso in 2010-11.

7. Colin Wilson, C, Nashville Predators: What is it with these WJC guys? Wilson did great things with the U.S. Team as well then moved on to two years at Boston University where he continued to dominate. Scoring 55 points in 47 games last year for National Champion BU will get you more than noticed. Writers from the Preds are expecting him to possibly make the jump onto the roster when the season starts. I am guessing he is impressing that many people at camp again this year just like last year.

Now what can Wilson do for this season? Actually, quite a bit. Nashville needs a centre that can put some points up in case Jason Arnott gets hurt again, and Wilson is the perfect man for the job. The question is will they put him in the AHL to start or do they need him that badly right now? The latter option seems to be winning out and the reality is Wilson has the potential to break out as an NHL player this year. Look deep in your leagues, especially keeper ones, for this kid.

8. Matt Gilroy, D, New York Rangers: This kid’s life seems almost not fair. He was a walk on to a major university then wins a National Title. Now, he’s dazzling the world in the Ranger camp. It seems like a fairy tale story and yet it is not. Gilroy’s four years at Boston University saw him mature into the playmaking defenseman that he is now. I saw him make a play just the other night that blew my mind. Yes, it’s only preseason, but when a player can knife through a Jacques Lemaire defense, that will cause you to raise your eyebrows very quickly.

Now I know how the Rangers develop their youngsters (see Hugh Jessiman). However, Gilroy is not only can’t miss but he may be New York’s best defenseman come the end of the year. That says a lot for a kid just coming out of college, but he is that good. Gilroy will not only make the team, but he’ll make quite an impact — he may get 30 or 35 points from the blueline this year. Gilroy will even make some plays that will make you just say ‘wow!’

9. Jonas Gustavsson, G, Toronto Maple Leafs: This is a guy that broke all of Henrik Lundqvist’s old SEL records. That will get you some pub right there. Yes, Gustavsson also did have a minor heart procedure and people will cringe and think the worst, but it was just that — minor. Also, he is being thrown into the lion’s den a bit in Toronto. We all know that and yet most think he can excel because well he is so fundamentally sound and he is not 20 like most prospects.

Gustavsson turns 25 next month and does Vesa Toskala or Joey MacDonald really seem like much to stand in his way? Probably not. The Monster will start this season in Toronto and with the help of a beefier blueline (Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin), he will achieve a little bit of success unlike Justin Pogge, who was absolutely like a deer in headlights. The biggest thing that will aid Gustavsson is his ability to adapt and that is why he will win close to 15-20 games even in Toronto with limited time.

10. Mikael Backlund, C, Calgary Flames: Do not sleep on this one. Backlund is playing well in camp and though he’s in the WHL as of now, that may not stop him. He did have a cup of coffee (one game) with Calgary last year. If injuries strike, there is a possibility that Backlund could crack the lineup and what a nice lineup it is in the Sea Of Red. By the way, Backlund had 30 points in 28 games for Kelowna of the WHL and that is no easy task.

So what should you expect from Backlund this year? I think he cracks the Calgary lineup late in the season. He may or may not play in the WHL, but I think the AHL may be a more likely destination at this time. Backlund’s poise in the playoffs for Kelowna may have assured that. More importantly, he has the chance to make an impact anywhere he plays and not many prospects can say that.

Well, that is it for the rookies, which means we are getting closer to the start of the season. Happy drafting.

The 2009-10 RotoRob NHL Draft Kit rages on, today with the release of our right wing cheat sheet.

Usually, ranking Fantasy wingers tends to favour depth on the right side rather than the left. If you look at this year’s crop, the situation seems to have reversed, with more sure things lining up on left wing. You’ll see a lot of guys that may have more inherent talent than the players listed in front of them, but issues with inconsistency and health have lowered their rankings — I’d rather take a steady sure thing than a risk with only 10 more potential points.

As with the left wing cheat sheet, these positions are dictated by the Yahoo! Fantasy Hockey game, and your actual position listing may not match up based on what league provider you use. Also, watch during the season for a player to get converted to a dual position (such as a centre that soon becomes eligible for right wing after being moved around).

Last year’s rankings are in parenthesis.

1. Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames (1): Captain Calgary continues to do it all, though will he miss having Alex Tanguay or Michael Cammalleri to play with? Probably not, since he’ll get a full season of Olli Jokinen. Jokinen can be shifted to fulfill various roles, as Iginla still has good chemistry with Daymond Langkow. The Flames have less scoring depth this season, heightening the burden on Iginla. However, he’s never been shy about shouldering his load in the past. The only real question is how different things will be under old-new coach Darryl Sutter and his “recommitment” to defense.

2. Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay Lightning (5): St. Louis still put up 30 goals and 50 assists despite (a) playing on a team in absolute turmoil; (b) working with an injured Vincent Lecavalier; and (c) not having a steady third member of the line. That should all change this year, as Lightning coach Rick Tocchet is starting this season off with stability that was missing last year, Lecavalier’s shoulder is rebuilt and ready to go, and playmaker Tanguay should round a dynamic trio. There’s no reason why St. Louis can’t break the 90-point barrier.

3. Corey Perry, Anaheim Ducks (NR): He’s dirty and he’s talented; he’s also not as good as centre Ryan Getzlaf. It doesn’t matter, though, as Getzlaf and Perry will be linked together all season long. Only 24, Perry still has upside, and breaking the 80-point barrier isn’t out of the question this year. The good news for Fantasy owners is that Perry also generates a huge amount of PIMs (100+ in the past two seasons) and he’s getting more aggressive when it comes to shooting the puck (up 83 shots last year).

4. Alexander Semin, Washington Capitals (NR): The other Alex in DC isn’t as skilled, as fiery, or as flamboyant. Nor is he a good fighter. That’s okay, though, as he’s still one of the best young forwards in the league. Injuries cut short his past two years, most notably last season where he was on pace to break 90 points. With the veteran presence of Sergei Fedorov and Viktor Kozlov gone, more of the off-ice responsibilities will weigh in on Washington’s two Alexes. I get the feeling that this won’t weigh Alexander Ovechkin down, but it might limit how much Semin grows in his fourth NHL season. He’s still a lock for 30 goals and 80 points.

5. Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks (7): You can bet your last 20 cents on Patrick Kane improving as he’s going into his third year. Though his point totals dipped slightly, his points per game was about the same between his stellar rookie year and his sophomore year. Here are the good trends to note: Kane took more shots on goal and his goals increased. In addition, he’s starting to (barely) fill out his wiry frame, and there should be no more sophomore jitters. Just beware the EA Sports cover boy curse and don’t ever, ever share a cab with the dude.

6. Daniel Alfredsson, Ottawa Senators (2): Now that Ottawa’s Big 3 have been broken up, the Senator offense starts with Alfredsson and centre Jason Spezza. Who lines up with them? Well, that depends. New acquisitions Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo offer different skills, and it’s unsure which will best mesh with the two. The Senators can’t nearly be as awful as they were last season, but one has to think that Alfredsson won’t replicate his 40-goal campaign from ‘07-08. However, without Dany Heatley there to finish, look for Alfredsson to be more aggressive in shooting the puck (unless Cheechoo rediscovers his goal-scoring ability and takes Heatley’s place).

7. Brad Boyes. St. Louis Blues (NR): People tend to forget about Boyes, but his numbers speak for themselves. Two years ago, he exploded 43 goals; last year, his goal total went down but his total points went up. With Paul Kariya claiming to be healthy, the Blues have a surprising mix of old and young forward talent that can be put together. Boyes offers both creativity and finishing abilities, and should put up at least 30 goals and 70 points in whatever configuration Andy Murray throws out there.

8. Shane Doan, Phoenix Coyotes (NR): Regardless of where the Coyotes actually play, Doan will still be the focal point of the franchise. It’s not too often you put up career numbers after 30, but he did just that. The Coyote attack actually has the potential to be better this season, even without Jokinen (that’s okay, though, as Jokinen never really meshed with the team). Doan’s numbers should stick around 75-80 points, especially if young players like Kyle Turris, Peter Mueller, and Viktor Tikhonov fulfill their potential.

9. Johan Franzen, Detroit Red Wings (NR): The Mule keeps scoring goals and putting up some (but not nearly as many) assists. Once again, he’ll be sporting this ratio, but 30 goals should be the bare minimum for Franzen. His assists, though, depend on his linemates, and Detroit’s missing a big chunk of its goal scoring from last season. In three of his four NHL seasons, Franzen’s missed around 10 games. Since he scores goals from ugly areas of the ice, this isn’t unexpected, but it could take its toll as Franzen reaches the other side of 30.

10. Devin Setoguchi, San Jose Sharks (NR): In his third NHL season, Setoguchi will most likely line up with Joe Thornton and newcomer Heatley. Setoguchi exploded out of the gate last year, then started to tail off following the All-Star break. Will he have a letdown season? Setoguchi’s speed and tenacity are perfect for coach Todd McLellan’s up-tempo system, and he’s got every reason to put up even bigger numbers. The only question is if he’ll succumb to the pressure following his breakout campaign.

11. Marian Hossa, Chicago Blackhawks (9): If you don’t mind using an IR spot for Hossa at the beginning of the season, he will probably be a valuable scoring winger from mid-December on. Once he returns to the lineup, there’s a good chance that he’ll need about two weeks to get up and running again, and even then an off-season shoulder operation can really hamper your season (see: Lecavalier, Vincent) as it limits what strength training you do. Still, if you’re willing to put up with using your IR spot on Hossa, you can’t deny his talent in a loaded Hawk forward lineup.

12. Marian Gaborik, New York Rangers (4): Yes, he’s fast. Yes, he’s talented. And yes, he’s always hurt. If Gaborik’s muscles could be synthetically replaced, he’d be in the top 10 of NHL scorers every year. Instead, he’s become a bit of a running joke and a gamble. Gaborik will put up points when he plays, and John Tortorella’s up-tempo style will work well with the Czechoslovakia’s explosive speed. However, Gaborik’s already missed time in training camp because of a sore groin, so…well, if you draft him, you know what to expect. If you’ve got IR in your league, he’s a good pickup.

13. Jason Pominville, BUffalo Sabres (6): In three full NHL seasons, Pominville’s point totals have been 68, 80, and 66. The Sabres were middle-of-the-road in goal scoring last season, and a big part of their success depends on Pominville and other core players like Drew Stafford and Derek Roy carrying the load. If they all go up, their collective point totals will rise and Pominville will hit 80 points again. These aren’t the run-and-gun Sabres of the Chris Drury/Daniel Briere days, though, and a safe bet is probably 70-75 points.

14. Alexei Kovalev, Ottawa Senators (3): The great enigma goes to Canada’s capital, where he endeared himself to Senator fans by talking about how he wished he was still in Montreal. Way to exercise those PR skills, Alexei. It’s unsure where Kovalev will fit in, as the Senators have enough scoring forwards to mix-and-match their top two lines. Even if he plays with Alfredsson and Spezza, no one knows if that will be enough to keep Kovalev interested. A reasonable expectation is around 65 points, or what he put up last year. If Kovalev suddenly he decides he likes Ottawa (the capital building is a nice piece of architecture, after all), add 10 points to that.

15. Phil Kessel, Boston Bruins (NR): See Hossa’s description above (Kessel will be out until December following surgery as well). However, Kessel’s only had one good season whereas Hossa is a seasoned veteran. Buyer beware.

16. Martin Havlat, Minnesota Wild (NR): Surprise, surprise — Havlat wasn’t broken for most of last season and wound up leading the Chicago Blackhawks in points. Going to Minnesota, he’s essentially a replacement for Gaborik (both in terms of scoring and in delivering frustration over injuries). Havlat is shockingly more durable than Gaborik, and new coach Todd Richards wants an up-tempo style that would make Jacques Lemaire’s head explode. Havlat won’t have the same talent level as he did in Chicago, but when he’s healthy, he can produce at nearly a point-per-game and he’s explosive enough to create offense out of nothing.

17. Ales Hemsky, Edmonton Oilers (10): An immensely talented player, Hemsky’s dangling ability is reminiscent of Detroit’s Pavel Datsyuk – minus the consistency and two-way play. His points per game across the past few seasons has been roughly 0.9, and there’s no real reason why that should trend any different. Keep in mind that two-thirds of those points will be assists.

18. David Backes, St. Louis Blues (NR): In his third season as an NHL regular, Backes finally broke through with 31 goals. In addition to putting up goals (and only 11 of his 54 points were on the power play), Backes gets shorthanded time and huge PIMs (165 last year). The Blues remain one of those bubble teams that can go either way; the question is whether or not Backes leads them to greener pastures or if the team’s success dictates his point totals.

19. Brian Gionta, Montreal Canadiens (NR): A long time ago (2005-06) in a galaxy far, far away (New Jersey), Gionta scored 48 goals. Since then, it’s been nothing but downhill: 25, 22, and 20 goals. He’ll be reunited with former New Jersey pivot Scott Gomez and here’s hoping that Gomez’s playmaking skills can bring him above the 25-goal mark. At least, that seemed to be Bob Gainey’s plan in bringing them both to Montreal.

20. Joffrey Lupul, Anaheim Ducks (NR): Lupul is back in Anaheim after being traded for Chris Pronger (again, as he was part of the original deal to Edmonton). Lupul had his greatest success as a Duck, scoring 28 goals. In his first Philly season, he was on pace to break that before injuries took out a quarter of his games. Now that he’s back in Anaheim, it appears like he’ll be looked at for secondary scoring and will probably rotate across lines depending on the new-look Duck forwards perform. Lupul may never be a 30-goal guy but he should be reliable for 25 in his old stomping grounds.

We’re back with more of the 2009-10 RotoRob NHL Draft Kit with the release of another cheat sheet. Here are the top 20 left wingers in Fantasy hockey.

When it comes to left wing, you’ll find that depth usually disappears after the top 10 guys or so. To make things even more difficult, different forwards are listed in different positions based on the Fantasy site you’re using. In some cases, sites will list them as two positions, thus allowing you to be more flexible with your games played.

In our case, this list is using the positions listed on Yahoo! Fantasy Hockey and is compiled based on stats, age, team, and other trends.

Ranking from last season are in parenthesis. Note that Patrick Marleau (also listed in our Centre Rankings) may play left wing or centre this season and is eligible for both in some leagues (he was last year in Yahoo!).

1. Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals (1): I should have made him No. 2 just to see what sort of reaction I’d get. This doesn’t need any explanation, does it?

2. Ilya Kovalchuk, Atlanta Thrashers (3): Two words — contract year. Just starting the physical prime of his career, Kovalchuk has the opportunity to show the world that he’s worth big, big money. The Thrasher star will probably mix and match linemates again, but the early indication is that he’ll be playing with Nik Antropov. Here’s a better indicator: it took the Thrashers about half the season to figure out John Anderson’s system, and Kovalchuk scored more goals in the second half than the first.

3. Zach Parise, New Jersey Devils (NR): Parise’s just entering the prime of his career. With that in mind, look at his goal totals since his rookie year — 14, 31, 32, 45. Will he hit the mid 40s again this year? There’s no reason why not, and if your league counts shots on goal, you’ll love Parise. He increased his shot total by around 100 last year, and since his shooting percentage remained the same, his goal total spiked. Yeah, I think he figured it out…but the biggest concern is how his offensive instincts will be muted under Jacques Lemaire.

4. Rick Nash, Columbus Blue Jackets (6): People are going to point to Nash’s relatively low assist factor as a detriment, but let’s see how the Columbus captain does with a full year of Derrick Brassard at centre. Also, while Nash’s shots on goal dropped last year (his shooting percentage went way up, though), he’s become a shorthanded threat ever since Ken Hitchcock challenged him to become a penalty killer.

5. Thomas Vanek, Buffalo Sabres (9): Remember when we all scoffed at the ginormous offer sheet Kevin Lowe gave Vanek? All he does is score goals, especially on the power play where he got 20 of his 40. The Sabres are offensively challenged outside of Vanek (and hope that Jason Pominville or Derek Roy stay consistent), which explains the assist total. If the Sabres’ young core takes a collective step forward, Vanek’s overall totals should go up.

6. Dany Heatley, San Jose Sharks (4): Love him or hate him (and mostly everyone hates him right now), you can’t deny the fact that Heatley’s a lock for 35 goals with an upside of 50+ goals. It’s more likely he’ll be on the upper part of that with Joe Thornton passing him the puck, but we’ll see if there’s any lingering fallout from Heatley’s summer of discontent.

7. Brenden Morrow, Dallas Stars (NR): Assuming Morrow is totally recovered from surgery, he’s a virtual lock for 30 goals, 70 points and 100 PIMs. You can’t really go wrong with that, though the other question is how Morrow will perform under Marc Crawford’s new system.

8. Patrick Marleau, San Jose Sharks (NR): Injuries marred a great season from Marleau, but it remains to be seen how he’ll react to having his captaincy stripped. The last time a coach threw him under the bus, he had one of his worst seasons ever. His relationship with Todd McLellan seems to be much better, and he’s matured as a player, so don’t look for too much of a dip from Marleau even as he plays with Ryane Clowe and Joe Pavelski on the second line (both guys with potential for 60-70 points). Bonus points here for his shorthanded presence.

9. Daniel Sedin, Vancouver Canucks (5): In the past four years, Daniel (you know, the better looking one) saw his point totals go from 71 to 84 to 74 and then 82. That would make this year’s projection to be about 76, wouldn’t it? The Canucks have a stronger, more offensively-oriented blueline, which should help Sedin’s power play totals. His power play numbers actually dropped last year despite his points going up, so if those can go back to previous levels, you’ll see his totals go even further.

10. Alex Tanguay, Tampa Bay Lightning (10): There’s plenty of reason to be healthily skeptical of a Tanguay resurgence, but here are two reasons why he should have a great year — Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis. Already dubbed the Next French Connection by Tampa fans, it remains to be seen how the trio will mesh. However, St. Louis and Lecavalier (now healthy after a mediocre season affected by shoulder surgery) are already dynamic as it is; adding a third skilled player should push them even further.

11. Scott Hartnell, Philadelphia Flyers (NR): Move Hartnell up a few spots if your league rewards PIMs. Though Hartnell will never be in the top 10 in scoring, he offers a pretty unique combination of toughness (100+ PIMs), scoring (30 goals), and special teams (both power play and penalty killing). And that hair…really, can we argue with that?

12. Simon Gagne, Philadelphia Flyers (NR): Based on pure skill, Gagne shouldn’t be lower than teammate Hartnell. Call me a cynic, but the fact that Gagne hurt his hip and groin (two injuries that usually linger all season) at Olympic orientation tells me that he won’t play a complete season. I expect total numbers similar to Hartnell’s (around 65 points), but without the PIMs or the number of games played, which also lowers shots on goal.

13. Alexander Frolov, Los Angeles Kings (8): Will this be the year for the LA Kings to break through with their young core? I hope so, because I’m really tired of asking that question every year. Frolov’s point totals have dropped in the past three years (71, 67, 59) — but the drop was much more noticable in his assists. Teammate Anze Kopitar’s numbers also dropped last season, but both should progress forward together, and that should take Frolov’s assists back up.

14. Patrik Elias, New Jersey Devils (15): After two bad years, Elias returned to point-per-game form. However, I suspect that having Lemaire in the fold will deflate Elias’s point totals, but having said that, there’s no real indicator about their history together, as Elias was in the early stages of his career during Lemaire’s first tenure.

15. Ray Whitney, Carolina Hurricanes (11): At some point, Whitney has to slow down. Seriously. The dude is a few years shy of 40 and yet he remains close to the point-per-game range. But the bulk of these are assists, and Whitney’s primary trigger-man, Eric Staal, should match his 40-goal output from last year.

16. Mike Cammalleri, Montreal Canadiens (NR): I’m not totally sold on Cammalleri as a consistent 80-point guy. He usually gets around half of his points on the power play, and it remains to be seen how the revamped Montreal attack will gel. The only real certainty on the Montreal power play is blueliner Andrei Markov. The rest of it reminds me of Glen Sather’s cut-and-paste approach to assembling a lineup, which will make for an interesting chemistry experiment. I’m sure the Montreal media won’t be critical at all.

17. David Booth, Florida Panthers (NR): In his third full NHL season, Booth broke the 30-goal mark. With the ghost of Olli Jokinen gone from South Florida, all eyes are on Booth to be the Panthers’ go-to guy. Peter DeBoer has already stated that he’ll be looking at playing Booth with Stephen Weiss (61 points in 78 games) and Nathan Horton (45 points in 67 games); together, the trio should be able to elevate each others’ games.

18. Loui Eriksson, Dallas Stars (NR): Eriksson’s rapid emergence is reminiscent of Detroit’s Johan Franzen. With key Dallas forwards back in the lineup (Morrow and Brad Richards), Eriksson should see his numbers bump up. While his goal upside should be around 45, the bigger increase will be in his assist totals should his teammates stay healthy.

19. Paul Kariya, St. Louis Blues (NR): Most people will forget about Kariya after his injury-riddled 2008-09 season (only 11 games played — but 15 points). Kariya claims that both of his hips are healthy, and if that’s the case, it’s a safe bet that he’ll put up at least 65 points with an upside of 80. Look for most of those to be assists, though.

20. Milan Lucic, Boston Bruins (NR): In his third year, Lucic should eclipse the 20-goal and 50-point marks while still keeping up 100+ PIMs. The potential for a bigger breakout looks to be 30 goals, 65 points. That might be a bit high as power forwards tend to evolve a little slower than pure scorers, but look for Lucic’s power play totals and shots on goal to increase this season too.

The 2009-10 RotoRob NHL Draft Kit continues today with another cheat sheet, this time focusing on the top centres in Fantasy hockey. These 20 stout guys should be on your team…period!

Last year’s rankings are in parenthesis.

1. Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins (2): He led the league in points last year. Duh! He won the Stanley Cup…he is one of the best players in the game, was clutch last year and now he is ready to do it all again. By the way, he had 113 points (35 goals, 78 assists) and a nice 80 penalty minutes. Now, let’s go to the next level. Malkin does not need linemates to create offense for him…he creates his own. The 290 shots on goal is also nice and the fact that his 22:31 average ice time per game is tops amongst centres is also helpful. Malkin still needs to work on faceoffs a bit (a factor in those deeper leagues), but you can’t have everything. His three-year average is 101 points but it’s reasonable to expect another 110-point season. Malkin’s power play goals (14) will go up, and by the way, 41 points on the man advantage is still awfully good, ladies and gentlemen. He will and should go ahead of the guy next on this list. We’re predicting Malkin finishes about 40-74-114 this year for the Pens.

2. Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins (1): He is Sid The Kid and finds ways to get points…it’s that simple. He enjoyed a nice season, totaling 103 points (33 goals, 70 assists), but still there will always be one thing that haunts Crosby — the lack of a slap shot or even a quality wrist shot from a distance. Yes, he has great hands — no one can question that — but it is more than just how straight his hockey stick is, folks. The 40 Power Play points he put up was great, but only seven of those were goals. That is a concern. Crosby’s 21:51 ATOI (average time on ice) is also excellent. He is flanked by excellent guys on the wings (Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz), and a full season together will also help sort out any chemistry issues if there are any remaining. Malkin and Crosby are in their early 20s and just finding their games still. I can see Crosby finishing with about 35 goals, 72 assists and 107 points this year.

3. Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks (8): Yes, his three-year average comes to only 77 points, but think of how scary he can be with Bobby Ryan and Corey Perry for a whole season. Just visualize it and get back to me. Getzlaf ranked 4th amongst centres with 91 points last year. But he is only 24 as well and his linemates are very young, so that 25-66-91 total is a sign of things to come. Getzlaf has 100-point potential written all over him if he can be just a little more disciplined as far as the penalties he takes. He can also stand to shoot the puck more; he only had 221 shots last year, which is low for a guy of his caliber. Getzlaf even has the TV commercial thing down (Home Depot) and don’t worry, his balding spot will not stop him. Expect a season of 30-71-101 along with 80-90 PIMs and 12 PPGs. Getzlaf will be a force.

4. Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit Red Wings (6): Datsyuk is at his prime at age 31 and he’s averaged 94 points per season over the last three years. Last year, he put up a line of 32-65-97 with a +34 ranking. Note that +34, as +/- is still one of those key points that can decide some weeks in Fantasy hockey leagues. As most people are aware, Datsyuk is pretty good at faceoffs and he takes few penalties. He is capable of taking over games, but is mostly consistent which is great for Fantasy hockey owners. If I am at the end of the first round, I am looking to snag this guy because he surely won’t be around in the late teens or 20s. Datsyuk will do his thing again, and I am expecting about 33-65-98 this year with 14 PPGs and a few more penalty minutes.

5. Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals (14): Backstrom can pass like so few can. Those 66 assists to go along with 22 goals belies the fact that this guy is a potential sniper breakout awaiting to happen. That line has all the makings of being scary for the next decade. Backstrom will get more scoring chances this year because teams will key on his linemates even more. Expect the shots to go up to almost 200 or more. ATOI will be over 20:00 and he is getting better on his faceoffs. I just like this kid’s mental makeup. I can see a year in which Backstrom tops 25 goals and busts over the 70-assist barrier with ease. A playmaking centre with size that can hit occasionally is refreshing so 97 points this year would not surprise me in the least. Look out, NHL — this one is only going to get better.

6. Marc Savard, Boston Bruins (10): I like Savard because he can now create his own offense and set up others. He has been steady, averaging around 88 points per year over the last three years. Savard has been shooting more (213 shots last year) and I think he will get rewarded for that at some point. Four straight years of 60+ assists makes him a no brainer to be this high on our list. Some think Joe Thornton should be here, but no, I am sticking with Savard. A 30-65-95 season is not out of the question for Savard, though a few points lower would not be so bad either. He should also get a bump in ice time with some of the Boston key cogs injured and expected to miss time early in the season. That will also help the Fantasy value for Savard owners.

7. Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks (3): He is declining ever so slightly…not at a Daniel Alfredsson rate, but close. Thornton put up 114 points three years ago, then 96 the season after that and then 86 last year. But he is still one of those rare guys with 60 or more assists in each of the last four years. The problem is Thornton used to shoot the puck and last year he only had 139 shots on goal. He did score 11 PPGs in 08-09 and I think he can increase that total. I think he will shoot the puck more as well, but it will still be a struggle. Thornton will be pass happy for the rest of his days and can only turn on the old goal scoring prowess for short periods at a time. Add the assists and he will likely be at 31-62-93 or somewhere around those numbers. His expected total of 13-15 goals on the man advantage and 150-160 shots will help Fantasy owners a bit.

8. Eric Staal, Carolina Hurricanes (7): If there was ever a time for Staal to play like during his rookie year it is now. He had a ton of shots last year (372) and I think this year that will serve him well. He’s also an above average passer — especially on the power play. The line of 40-35-75 he had last season was nice, but not for Staal. The +15 was encouraging (as were the eight game-winning goals) as he slowly takes the leadership reins of the club…and so comes the scoring burden again. I really do think Staal has a 90-point season in him just barely. Something along the lines of 44-46-90 with 18 PPGs and 10 GWGs is actually reasonable this season for a centre who should make the All-Star team.

9. Mike Richards, Philadelphia Flyers (9): Richards had seven SHGs and a +22 ranking last season and that translates into extra points for Fantasy owners as shorties are weighted a little more than your average goal or PPG. His 21:44 ATOI also gives him more opportunities and that is the type of player you want on your team. Richards is ranked above Jeff Carter by a hair because of his consistency. He gets decent PIMs (60-70), does well on faceoffs and is the type of player that can provide steady production which is what you need to help offset any droughts by your No. 1 Fantasy centre. Expect 32-53-85 with at least six SHG from Richards for the upcoming season. There are happy times ahead in Philly with this 24-year-old youngster.

10. Jeff Carter, Philadelphia Flyers (NR): Carter has above average natural talent and can create his own offense, but he still goes through droughts and consistency issues. I like his shots on goal total (342) and ATOI (20:57) and the 13 PPGs and the 12 GWGs was a bonus. However, the latter number will come down a bit this year…sorry, Fantasy fans. I’m expecting a 40-44-84 season with nine GWGs and 15 PPGs — not so bad at all. Notice that I’m projecting more PPGs — I think Carter will actually pot a few more of those power play chances in the back of the net. A season with the same amount of points could actually be a good thing for Carter’s owners.

11. Henrik Sedin, Vancouver Canucks (NR): Sedin is good enough to average a point per game. Any time the Sedins are on the ice they are dangerous, but particularly Henrik who is the better of the duo. The key will be at what point does Henrik take that next step? It is something all owners are truly waiting for and drooling over the prospect.

12. Mike Ribeiro, Dallas Stars (13): — Ribeiro can still can score, but will Loui Eriksson help again? Also, do healthier players eat into Ribeiro’s potential for more points? Probably not. The key will be his linemates as it always is. Ribeiro is a quality player with still much upside in Big D.

13. Jason Spezza, Ottawa Senators (5): Spezza can still play, and we think he’ll enjoy a bit of a rebound. That is the bottom line here. Spezza is likely to be with Alfredsson as always, but who will be the third linemate is anyone’s guess. Will it be Alexei Kovalev or Dany Heatley? But then again, does it really matter? Either way expect a nice season from the 26-year-old.

14. Patrick Marleau, San Jose Sharks (NR): We expect his breakout goal season to continue a bit freer in this year. Marleau may not have the “C” anymore, but that chip on his shoulder is going to translate into more points and he will likely not be traded. Unless, of course, there is an offer that knocks the socks off the Sharks’ brass.

15. Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning (4): I expect Lecavalier to have a strong second half, fueling 2010-11. The bottom line is that the French line will take some time to develop chemistry, but once they do I expect a furious second-half charge up the Fantasy rankings for Lecavalier. Just don’t be surprised if things start slowly.

16. Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings (15): Kopitar will benefit somewhat from Ryan Smyth’s arrival. Kopitar is too good to be kept down for long; he has to rebound.  This is the Kings’ equivalent of Malkin — Kopitar needs the line support and now he has it. Let’s see what he can do with it. The time is now.

17. Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks (NR) — The Patrick Kane situation may motivate Toews early. He should start out hot because this team will need him, especially without Marian Hossa. Toews won’t torch the world with 80 points, but he will not be a 60-point guy either.

18. Johan Franzen, Detroit Red Wings (NR): The spotlight is on now, there’s no turning back. Franzen has to be the third best scorer on this team for it to succeed again and, based on netting 30+ goals last year, he can do it if anyone can. He just has to worry about his coconut now and then with his style of play.

19. Nik Antropov, Atlanta Thrashers (NR): This may be a surprise pick, but Ilya Kovalchuk helps! The power of Kovalchuk puts Antropov in the Top 20; just ask Slava Kozlov what Kovalchuk has done for his career. Can the all Russian line do the job? For Fantasy owners, the answer is yes.

20. Scott Gomez, Montreal Canadiens (NR): For Gomez, being reunited with Brian Gionta “feels so goooood!” Mike Cammalleri-Gomez-Gionta is a line you will hear plenty about this year — one way or the other. However, I think the news will be more good than bad and Gomez could surprise, especially early.

Others to Consider

21. Travis Zajac, New Jersey Devils (NR): Steady progress and high +/- again.
22. Mikko Koivu, Minnesota Wild (NR): Last year was not a fluke at all.
23. Paul Stastny, Colorado Avalanche (12): The go-to guy now, but he has to stay healthy!
24. Saku Koivu, Anaheim Ducks (NR): Playing with Teemu Selanne will rejuvenate him big-time!
25. Olli Jokinen, Calgary Flames (11): He’ll have nice year, but there is lots of balance in Calgary.

The 2009-10 RotoRob NHL Draft Kit continues today as our newest hockey writer, Chris Wassel, makes his RotoRob.com debut by profiling the top 20 NHL Fantasy goalies.

Here are your top 20 Fantasy goalies. Any debate means I have done my job. Enjoy. 

Last season’s rankings are in parenthesis.

1. Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks (5): Luongo, over a 70-starts or more season, just produces more points in leagues where wins and shutouts are essential. In his last two full years, he produced a 2.31 GAA and a .920 save percentage with 11 shutouts and 82 wins. Then, in just 54 starts last year, he had nine shutouts and 33 wins. Project those numbers over a 72-start season and you have 44 wins and 12 shutouts…that is nasty! This season, Luongo may not quite get 12 shutouts. I am thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 shutouts and 44 wins with a 2.29 GAA and a .923 save percentage. He is going to be pretty well automatic this year as far as Fantasy goalies.

2. Martin Brodeur, New Jersey Devils (2): I don’t know…16 shutouts, 92 wins, and a 2.17 GAA to go along with a .921 save percentage is just too good to pass up in Fantasy leagues. Brodeur usually gets drafted as the No. 1 goalie based on reputation alone. Even at 37, he is still that good, when most goalies are slowing down. I have a feeling that last year left a sour taste in his mouth, so expect Brodeur to be nominated for the Vezina Trophy once again. His numbers will be around 41-43 wins, a 2.35 GAA and a .921 save percentage. Toss in eight or nine shutouts and people will forget all about that nightmare that was the 2008-2009 season.

3. Tim Thomas, Boston Bruins (NR): Thomas is a very solid goalie that can be downright brilliant and is not afraid to take a leadership role on the ice. Sure, he is 35, but that Boston defense is just about tops in the league even without a guy like Steve Montador. The numbers do not lie: last year, Thomas put up a 2.10 GAA, .933 save percentage and five shutouts along with 36 wins. Even if he gets 10-12 more starts which is almost certain, the numbers will still be up there. The bottom line is Thomas will not be the third goalie taken in most Fantasy drafts, but he should be. I’m expecting these kinds of numbers from the Flint, Michigan native: 40-42 wins with a 2.24 GAA and a .923 save percentage. Add in five or six shutouts for good measure.

4. Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota Wild (11): His numbers will suit him well in whatever system he plays. Still in his early 30s, Backstrom has — get this — room for improvement still. That’s a scary thought for all teams that face him this year. However, it might be bad news that he did get a shiny new contract that he will have to play up to, but not many foresee that as a major problem. Backstrom may actually get a few more wins with a slight uptick in offense. Interestingly enough, the signing of Greg Zanon (from Nashville) may help Backstrom have a better season than 2008-09. This season, I am expecting a 2.27 GAA and a .924 save percentage from Backstrom. He may even get nominated for the Vezina again when all is said and done.

5. Miikka Kiprusoff, Calgary Flames (7): We kind of expect Kipper to start off a bit slow again, but not with the outrageous GAA. As the team gels in Calgary, he will get on a roll. Then. look out from there! What can be expected this year? Well, about 43-45 wins, a 2.45 GAA and a .918 save percentage with at least six or seven shutouts. Yes, they do look a lot like his numbers from three years ago, but I think Brent Sutter brings in a defensive accountability and faith in his netminder that Mike Keenan clearly did not have.

6. Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers (4): Winning at least 30 games in each of your first four seasons will get you more than noticed. Lundqvist is also on the cover of…oh, never mind no one cares about that. The bottom line is he is solid in net and behind a team that kills penalties very well and plays close to the vest, so expect that 2.43 GAA to come back down a hair this year. Likely, Lundqvist will have more than three shutouts as well (he did go 35 straight games without one during the ‘08-09 season). It’s tough to predict this sort of thing because of the team he plays in front of, but expect Lundqvist to have at least 35 wins and probably close to 40. I’m going to say 39 wins with a 2.35 GAA and a .919 save percentage. Throw in seven or eight shutouts and you can see why it was tough to place him as low as No. 6 on this illustrious list.

7. Evgeni Nabokov, San Jose Sharks (1): He wins, and that’s bottom line — 41 in total last year with some pretty good numbers along the way. Some will say that Nabokov benefits greatly from goal support that is second to very few, if any. Since the lockout, he has been kind of up and down, so expect a little more of an up year from the 34-year-old Russian, who, let’s face it, is playing for some serious coin this year. Here is the deal: Nabokov will win at least 40 games and probably closer to 45 if he stays healthy. If you can put up with the relatively low save percentage compared to almost all of this list, he is a great second starting goalie. I’m expecting a GAA of around 2.35 and a save percentage of about .912 with seven or eight shutouts from Nabokov.

8. Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes (15): Carolina is a team on the rise and the appearance in last year’s Conference Finals may be a sign of things to come. This could be the year that Ward breaks the 40-win plateau at last; a 40-42 win season is what we are calling for. He will have around a 2.40 to 2.45 GAA and close to a .920 save percentage with six or seven shutouts thrown in. A solid backup in Michael Leighton will give Ward the proper rest he needs to be at his best late in the regular season or your Fantasy playoffs — just some food for thought considering how hot he was last year down the stretch.

9. Steve Mason, Columbus Blue Jackets (NR): Mason’s win total should improve just because if he stays healthy he will play more than 61 games. He is a perfect No. 2 to have on your Fantasy team because most nights it’s a 2-1 or 3-2 game. Mason’s 33-20-7 record with 10 shutouts won him the Calder. And let’s not forget that 2.29 GAA…that was nice. I will take some heat for this as well. Mason is barely a top 10 goalie in Fantasy leagues, but because this seems to be the year of 1a and 1b again, he will benefit greatly. About 36-38 wins, a 2.32 GAA and a .917 save percentage along with seven or eight shutouts would not be a surprise for Mason.

10. Ryan Miller, Buffalo Sabres (10): Simply look at how well he was playing before he got hurt. Thanks, Scott Gomez. Remember that Miller had 34 wins in only 59 games last year; he likely would have topped 40 wins with around a 2.50 GAA and maybe seven shutouts had he been healthy. However, we will never know. Well, for this season, 38-40 wins for Miller is about right. Add in the 2.45 to 2.50 GAA and a save percentage close to .920 and you have a guy that should sneak in under the radar in some Fantasy leagues. Sometimes, the veteran gets it over the young guns.

11. Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators (NR): Last year was no fluke and he will prove it. The Pred goalie should be expected to help your Fantasy team even with a funny first and last name. Rinne’s expected 36-38 wins with a nice GAA and save percentage will make you say Dan Ellias and Tomas Vokoun who?

12. Jonas Hiller, Anaheim Ducks (NR): Hiller will be the No. 1 in Anaheim and rack up numbers. He is set up for a very nice season. Anaheim has gotten younger and without the Chris Pronger trade distraction, the only thing left is J.S. Giguere, and you can expect him to get traded during the season. Hiller is a good goalie to take a bit later.

13. Nikolai Khabibulin, Edmonton Oilers (NR): He will be better than Cristobal Huet this year, however, not by much. Khabibulin does like playing on a team with fast tempo (Chicago and Tampa). The numbers will be good — maybe even better than Chicago — because he knows he will be the No. 1, but still has the pressure.

14. Cristobal Huet, Chicago Blackhawks (NR): With that offense, he should be up here. Even missing Marian Hossa for a month or two, Chicago will score. And Patrick Kane, even with the distraction, will still produce. So even with global warming, Huet will produce. You get the idea…draft him late.

15. Marc Andre-Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins (6): Expect a hangover, yes, but a better second half. Fleury is more inconsistent than the Devils defensive corps, yet he won a Stanley Cup last year. Go figure! It really comes down to the fact that this is a guy that plays better later in the year. Maybe even stash him as your third goalie, if possible.

16. Tomas Vokoun, Florida Panthers (14): He still puts up solid numbers, but has little support. The other wrinkle is Scott Clemmensen — will he help or hurt Vokoun? That is a big question. Clemmensen helped spell a goalie like Brodeur, but Vokoun is no Brodeur. Maybe someone should go Distant Early Warning and signal red alert!

17. Chris Mason, St. Louis Blues (NR): Which C. Mason will we see? He is a lot like a bipolar person; you do not know which goalie you will get or if he will stay healthy. If Mason stays on top of his game, he is worthy of this list. If not, seek other options immediately and run to your waiver wire. This is a buyer beware situation, and it would help if the Blues can stay a bit more healthy as well. Send medikits.

18. Chris Osgood, Detroit Red Wings (12): Osgood will have a better regular season; he almost has to. Sure, we know he’s getting older, but Detroit is a good regular season team and Osgood knows he is under the microscope — fairly or unfairly. We’d recommend that early in the season you just keep the waiver wire on speed dial just in case.

19. Jon Quick, Los Angeles Kings (NR): Quick is an up and comer that could be in the top 10 soon. Expect a nice rise and more starts out of Mr. Quick. He plays in a pretty good defensive system and should get a bit more support this season and that spells trouble for Fantasy owners that do not draft this guy as a nice No. 3 goalie.

20. Craig Anderson, Colorado Avalanche: (NR): Anderson could put up some nice numbers; he is The Matrix, after all. Great reflexes, little respect, and little support have characterized Mr. Anderson’s career. Let’s see what he can do as a No. 1 in Colorado. This will be quite the test for a netminder starting to enter into his prime beef years.

Others to Consider

21. Simeon Varlamov, Washington Capitals (NR): Takes the bull by the Caps’ horns.
22. Marty Turco, Dallas Stars (3): Has to have a better year for Dallas.
23. Ray Emery, Philadelphia Flyers (NR): We had to put him on here somewhere.
24. Jonas Gustafsson, Toronto Maple Leafs (NR): I can see the monster doing pretty well.
25. Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens (13): Because it cannot get much worse than last year.

We kick off the 2009-10 RotoRob NHL Draft Kit today with the release of our defencemen cheat sheet. Once we finish the cheat sheets, we’ll also be offering you sleepers to target, busts to avoid and our take on the rookies you need to consider this season.

Defencemen are a little bit of an enigma to draft for Fantasy purposes, though you can’t underestimate their importance. With forwards, there’s always a way to find a comparable second- or third-tier guy to fill in for a slumping player. With defencemen, there’s not. You’ll also find a glut of guys between the 35- and 45-point range, most of whom have the potential for more based on the forwards they work with.

In other words, once you get out of the top tier, it’s a grab bag. These general rankings are based on a combination of last year’s stats, power play time, teammates, coaching system, and general trends. If your league puts extra emphasis on, say, PIMs or power play goals, look at the stats and adjust the rankings accordingly.

Numbers in parenthesis represent last year’s rankings.

1. Mike Green, Washington Capitals (3): Is Green the second coming of Bobby Orr? No, definitely not — Green won’t revolutionize the game and Orr never had a public display of Jersey Shore Douchebaggery like Green’s see-it-to-believe-it website. Still, Green’s propelled himself to be far and away today’s most prolific scoring defenceman, thanks to an offense-first mentality, high-flying forwards, and a go-go-go playing style. Now, about that website…

2. Sergei Gonchar, Pittsburgh Penguins (6): Yes, Gonchar’s a year older and well on the wrong side of 30. Still, when you’re quarterbacking a power play with some dudes name Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, it’s hard to argue the point. The Penguins went from floundering to flying around the time Gonchar came back into the lineup last year; anyone think that that’s a mere coincidence?

3. Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings (1): Lidstrom must have Benjamin Button disease because the guy’s gotten better with age. His elite level of play at the age of 39 is something that is difficult to replicate in any sport (Ray Bourque was close, but he didn’t rule the ice the way Lidstrom does at the same age). The Red Wings should be hungry after losing a heartbreaking Game Seven to Pittsburgh, and while the team lost some scoring depth, Lidstrom will still be running the power play with the big guns.

4. Dan Boyle, San Jose Sharks (7): People often overlook the rash of injuries that, at times, took out up to 10 regulars from the San Jose lineup during the middle part of the year. Coach Todd McLellan admitted to shifting to a more defensive style during that time, which means that Boyle would have had even better point totals if the Sharks had somehow managed to stave off half of those injuries. In his second season in San Jose, look for Boyle to take an even more important position on the team.

5. Andrei Markov, Montreal Canadiens (10): How does last year’s second-highest scoring defenceman slip to No. 5? Consider this: Montreal reloaded its forward lineup with players like Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta. Will they gel? No one knows, and if they don’t, you’ll see Markov’s power play point totals drop. He will get his points, but projecting them will be as difficult as predicting how the Habs will fare.

6. Mark Streit, New York Islanders (20): Oh Mark Streit, we ask for your forgiveness. Last year, we mocked you as a one-trick pony going to Long Island for big bucks. This year? Well, folks on Long Island seem to think of you as a bright light (not a lighthouse, though; that’s a different topic on Long Island) in an otherwise barren landscape. The Islanders’ youth should be better this year (we’ll see about John Tavares, though), meaning that Streit has nowhere to go but up.

7. Brian Rafalski, Detroit Red Wings (8): Something about the water at Joe Louis Arena shuts up naysayers and adds a good five years to careers. Rafalski’s point totals are virtually assured by playing with the talented Red Wings, though he doesn’t have the same aura of immortality that Lidstrom does.

8. Brian Campbell, Chicago Blackhawks (9): Please note that we are not — repeat, not — calling Campbell the eighth-best defenceman in the league. Anyone who’s seen him play knows that “defence” is in his job description merely by default. However, you can’t deny Campbell’s puck-rushing skills, and the addition of Marian Hossa makes this already high-scoring team even deadlier on the power play. And fortunately, Campbell doesn’t lose Fantasy points for bad turnovers.

9. Chris Pronger, Philadelphia Flyers (5): Pronger goes as a high-scoring defenceman on a one-trick pony team to a high-scoring defenceman on a team stacked with forwards (if they stay healthy). This should create a natural boost to his point totals, and don’t forget the all important PIM points. There’s a reason why some Anaheim fans affectionately referred to Pronger as “Captain Elbows.”

10. Zdeno Chara, Boston Bruins (4): While never as flashy as some of his counterparts, Chara’s booming (and record-breaking) shot is feared by anyone who dares step in front of the net. He’s a lock for 45+ points with an upside of around 60 depending on how the Bruins fare, especially during the first few months when Phil Kessel is sidelined. One bonus about Chara — he’s a key to the Boston penalty kill, which means he’ll pop in the occasional shorthanded assist.

12. Dion Phaneuf, Calgary Flames (2): Once the golden boy of Canadian hockey, Phaneuf came under fire last season for his hit-and-miss play. He’s still got a heck of an upside, and should have a little more open ice with Jay Bouwmeester on the other Calgary point during the power play. It’s up to Phaneuf to find some consistency to his game.

12. Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim Ducks (16): Life will be quite different for Niedermayer with Pronger gone. Still, he’ll have Ryan Whitney playing the point with him, and Niedermayer can easily create an offensive rush all on his own. Any positive gains on this year’s point totals will largely reflect on the ability of Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne to provide a steady second line.

13. Jay Bouwmeester, Calgary Flames (15): For countless seasons, just about everyone’s talked about how many points Bouwmeester could put up if he just had some scoring help. Now he’s reunited with former Panther Olli Jokinen, but he’s also got a fellow All-Star manning the blueline (Phaneuf) and some guy named Jarome Iginla putting in power play goals. Jay, the rest is up to you.

14. Shea Weber, Nashville Predators (NR): Though Weber doesn’t have Chara’s height, he can just about match him in the blistering shot department. The world discovered Weber last year, though Nashville fans have watched him evolve from a young defenceman to a potential Norris winner. His cannon shot is key to the Predator power play — something that should only get better this season with full years from Jason Arnott and Steve Sullivan.

15. Dennis Wideman, Boston Bruins (12): Did you know that Wideman equaled teammate Chara in points last year? And while his +/- was better, he didn’t carry the same amount of PIMs as Chara. In other words, Wideman’s got a little ways to go before he reaches Chara’s Norris-caliber level of play. In the meantime, you’ll just have to be happy with 40-50 points for your Fantasy team.

16. Niklas Kronwall, Detroit Red Wings (NR): Lidstrom and Rafalski may get all of the attention, but Kronwall’s numbers speak for themselves. The issue here is second-unit power play minutes — with the loss of Hossa, Jiri Hudler (probably) and Mikael Samuelsson, the Red Wings won’t have as many forward options. This will inevitably affect the power play, and whichever defenceman is not out there with Henrik Zetterberg/Pavel Datsyuk will see his points drop. That’s most likely Kronwall.

17. Sheldon Souray, Edmonton Oilers (NR): If he’s healthy – and despite his critics, Souray played 81 games last year – he’s a lock for 15 goals, perhaps even 20 or more with his booming shot. It helps that Edmonton’s young stars should only improve, and if Dustin Penner ever regained his John Leclair-esque ability to put in garbage rebound goals, you’d see Souray’s power play assist totals go up.

18. Marek Zidlicky, Minnesota Wild (17): Things have changed up in Minnesota, with the old (boring) guard being shown the door and a new (hopefully entertaining) coach taking the reins. Todd Richards has emphasized a quick, up-tempo style, which should only help a skilled offensive defenceman like Zidlicky. Note that almost a quarter of Zidlicky’s points were power play goals.

19. Tomas Kaberle, Toronto Maple Leafs (18): People don’t realize this, but the Leafs were in the top third in goal scoring last season despite not having too many skill players. Kaberle himself was hurt for more than a quarter of the season, but when he played, he was the ice time leader and power play quarterback. He may not put up the same point totals as he did when he ran the show with Bryan McCabe, but he’s still the key piece in Toronto (plus, who knows what moves Brian Burke might make?).

20. Kimmo Timonen, Philadelphia Flyers (19): Timonen may have seen his point totals drop since going from Nashville to Philly, but this No. 1 defenceman now has another No. 1 defenceman to run the power play with. With the Flyers’ young forwards set to get better and better, Timonen has all the tools in the world to return to form.

21. Cam Barker, Chicago Blackhawks (NR): More offensive-minded than Duncan Keith, Barker kicked off the year in the minors before becoming a mainstay on the Chicago power play. He should have fewer points than teammate Campbell, but more than Keith, and considering his age (23), Barker has got a greater offensive upside than Keith.

22. Bryan McCabe, Florida Panthers (NR): The Panthers weren’t exactly a high-flying team last year, but that didn’t stop McCabe from popping in 15 goals in just 69 games. He still loves to shoot the puck, and half of his total points came on the power play. How much will he miss Bouwmeester remains to be seen; the flipside is the hope that guys like David Booth and Michael Frolik get better with age.

23. Kris Letang, Pittsburgh Penguins (NR): With Gonchar out for most of last season, Letang had to step it up and handle Penguin power play duties. While the power play was up and down during this time, it gave the 21-year-old valuable experience, which should only make things better as he starts the season next to a healthy Gonchar.

24. Ryan Suter, Nashville Predators (NR): See Weber’s description above, though Suter’s shot isn’t quite the canon that Weber’s is. Still, Gary Suter’s nephew is living up to his potential and should be a lock for 40+ points for years to come.

25. Tom Gilbert, Edmonton Oilers (NR): What should we expect from the young American? In his second (technically third, if you count the six games he played in 06-07) NHL season, Gilbert’s point totals went up and his goals dropped. Getting somewhere in between his rookie (33) and sophomore (45) totals shouldn’t be difficult, though eclipsing 45 points might be a challenge in his third full year.

26. Duncan Keith, Chicago Blackhawks (NR): Keith’s point totals have grown by around 10 almost every year, but there’s a good chance that they’ve hit a plateau. That’s okay, because his defensive game has become as valuable, if not more, as his offensive game. With a wide range of talented forwards to play with, Keith will probably bounce between first and second power play duty, but there’s not too much of a difference between them.

27. Andrej Meszaros, Tampa Bay Lightning (NR): Let’s state it right now – the Tampa Bay Lightning isn’t that bad this year. With the top two power play units consisting of Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Alex Tanguay, Steven Stamkos, and Ryan Malone, the Bolts’ power play should be much better, especially because the team’s coaching presence is stable. Meszaros should benefit greatly from that and return to the form he had in Ottawa.

28. Kevin Bieksa, Vancouver Canucks (NR): Bieksa had 42 points in his first full season and 43 points in his fourth year. Lock him in for at least the low 40s, but Bieksa also comes with a crazy amount of penalty minutes. Will he anchor the Vancouver PP with Alexander Edler, Christian Ehrhoff, or Mathieu Schneider?

29. Rob Blake, San Jose Sharks (NR): Blake still loves to shoot the puck, and his second year in San Jose should help him defy Father Time yet again. Under McLellan’s system, Blake’s shot is the perfect power play foil to Boyle’s puck rushing plus passing skills and the talented Shark forwards.

30. Tobias Enstrom, Atlanta Thrashers (NR): A bright light as a rookie, Enstrom hit the good ol’ sophomore slump last year. Of course, so did the entire Thrasher team as they took half a season to figure out what coach John Anderson wanted. When it clicked, though, Atlanta put together a solid run, and Enstrom should beat out his rookie total of 38 points while helping sophomore teammate Zach Bogosian.

BY DEREK JONES and ANDY GOLDSTEIN

In order to guide you through Draft Day, the 2009 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit continues by providing you with comprehensive customizable cheat sheets for quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers.

For those of you wondering, “hey, where are the tight ends, defenses, and kickers?” my colleague Andy Goldstein taught me a few very valuable lessons:

1. Kickers don’t matter until the end of the draft.
2. Tight ends are overvalued. Once you get past Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten and Antonio Gates, the position is a wash.
3. Defenses are wildly overrated. Trying to guess the performance of defenses on a weekly basis isn’t easy and which teams represent the league’s best constantly changes from year to year. Thus, using mid-round picks on them is useless in my opinion.

Thus, let’s start it off with an explanation on how we arrived at these numbers.

Rankings: Andy and I compiled rankings for 40 quarterbacks, 60 running backs and 80 wide receivers. Following those initial lists, we teamed up to produce a fair and perhaps somewhat shocking list of positional rankings (hint: quarterbacks usually don’t finish at the position’s top spot in Fantasy points two years in a row). Upon examining these, some may be a bit skeptical over the lack of reaction towards pre-season success from players. It’s not a true indicator for success considering it is backups versus other backups for a majority of these games.

Tier: Each position was assigned a tier number, which is used to help separate the men from the boys and the great from the good, so to speak. Ranging from 1 to 20, players with a 1 should be considered cornerstone players while those with anything in double digits should not be considered a top level player.

ADP (10-team league & 12 team league): ADP refers to average draft position, a phenomenon that tracks where players are drafted on average, in part based on their overall rank, after a series of mock drafts have been conducted utilizing specific scoring systems. For example, if you see that Randy Moss has an ADP of 2.03, it simply means that his average draft position is the second round’s third pick. The ADP component was used under standard scoring systems.

Auction: The last column measures how much money one should spend on a player under auction only rules. The prices are based on the premise that the player would be the first one selected during the draft. Interestingly enough, auction drafts allow any player to be chosen for auction at any point. In leagues such as this, teams may be given a cap to work under. In the process, their chances of building a superpower team are greatly compromised.

Also, these sheets will provide you with plenty of room to diss fellow owners, take notes on the opposition, or just simply monitor your player’s health. Overall, these sheets will get you up and running for 2009 Fantasy drafts throughout the country.

Get your cheat sheets here:
Quarterbacks
Running backs
Wide receivers

While busts are great to look at, fondle, bury your head into and generally bask in the presence of, absolutely no one wants to draft any busts for their Fantasy football team. But don’t sweat it, the 2009 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit is here to help you avoid those kinds of busts.

Tony Romo

Romo and the phrase “quiet offseason” does not seem to go together; if it’s not dealing with a playoff loss, the public is trapped with information on who he is dating. Is it Jessica Simpson or the 43-year-old Michelle Johnson from Blame It On Rio? This offseason featured another breakup for Romo but this time with Terrell Owens. Whenever the braggadocios receiver leaves a spot, his former team is not the same for quite some time.

Just ask the 49ers. Owens was the last receiver to break the 1,000-yard plateau there back in ’03. The Eagles finally seem to be equipped with respectable receivers after struggling to find guys to fill the void. Expect Dallas to have a similar problem and Romo is likely to suffer the consequences.

Over the past two seasons with Owens in tow, Romo totaled 62 touchdown passes and 13 300-yard passing games. Regardless of what you think of T.O. as a person or player, it’s clear that when he exits, he is not easy to replace. Don’t look for Roy E. Williams to fill the void. Don’t be surprised if Romo’s numbers decline without Owens to bail him out.

Michael Turner

Any veteran of Fantasy football has heard of the “Curse of 370” which was started a few years ago by the folks at Football Outsiders. For the uninformed, it states that backs that carry 370 times or more during the regular season are often ripe for injury the following season. With the exception of the immortals (Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, LaDainian Tomlinson, Eric Dickerson), most backs see to a sharp decline in productivity in the season following a 370-carry year.

Turner carried 376 times in ’08, which was a bit surprising considering it was his first year as a full-time starter and Atlanta has a respectable backup in Jerious Norwood. Instead of using his assets, head coach Mike Smith pounded and pounded and pounded some more with Turner. There was no coincidence that after carrying 25 times for 208 yards versus the 2-14 Rams in the regular season’s final game that the 27-year-old laid in egg against the Cardinals during the first round of the playoffs.

After rushing for nearly 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns, Turner will experience a drop in his numbers in 2009 — you can take that to the bank.

Brian Westbrook

Much of the pre-season talk regarding Westbrook has featured the word “hobbled” in front of his name, which is never a good sign. He is recovering from right ankle surgery and should be ready by the regular season’s beginning. However, as 30 beckons for Westbrook on September 2, he is trying to buck the all too familiar trend of running backs petering out at that age. Personal history is already against him. He has never played an entire season. As backs age, staying healthy becomes increasingly less likely.

Just consider that the surgery stems from an ankle injury Westbrook suffered all the way back in Week Three last season during an Eagle victory over eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh. Once the mileage stacks up on backs, getting over ailments is not such an easy chore.

He is a gamer and will be out there, but don’t expect him to reach levels of years past. The Philly passing attack is a bit more talented and the club drafted Pitt’s LeSean McCoy, who will be a factor this season at some point. In all, Westbrook’s prime is gone and his days of being a top 10 back are likely to finish up this season.

Roddy White

Any time a player has a big year and then decides to hold out during the following season, the outcome can be negative. White, who has two straight 1,200-yard seasons to his credit, is in the middle of holding and is apparently looking for “Larry Fitzgerald money.”

As White does this, he is missing out on conditioning and reps in training camp. Plus, he is not doing any favours for his second-year quarterback, Matt Ryan. The Falcons made the playoffs last season and now it appears the trappings of success are becoming a problem for White.

Atlanta lost receiver Harry Douglas early in camp to a torn ACL, thus putting just a bit more pressure on White to produce. This injury, combined with opponents not going to sleep on a previously dreadful franchise, will make White’s road to glory far more difficult in 2009.

Antonio Bryant

While Jeff Garcia is not going to the Hall of Fame, it is a lot easier catching passes from him than doing so from either Byron Leftwich, rookie Josh Freeman, or Josh McCown. Leftwich should get the nod to start, but he is not as effective a passer as Garcia. That is likely to have an impact on Bryant, despite new head coach Raheem Morris saying he wants to take a less conservative approach offensively.

Last season, Bryant posted career-best numbers in receptions (83), yards (1,248), and touchdowns (seven). Also, he had three 100-yard performances in a row over the season’s final four games. Those numbers will be difficult to repeat, though, with the changes in personnel Tampa has undergone.

By Tim McLeod and RotoRob

Note that this is a forward-looking list; we have tried to project how we think these hurlers will perform from this point on in 2009. Each player’s previous ranking is in parentheses.

1. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays (12): There are concerns about the groin injury, but it sounds minor. He’s been a bit more hittable this season, yet still leads the bigs in wins.

2. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants (30): Lincecum has also been a bit more hittable so far this season, but he remains as dominant as they come. Is he headed towards back-to-back Cy Youngs? Ironically, the last NL pitcher to do it was Lincecum’s rotation mate Randy Johnson, who won four straight between 1999 and 2002.

3. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees (5): Yes, he’s a notoriously slow starter, but despite pitching half his games in the homer-haven that is new Yankee Stadium, Sabathia is headed for another big win total. In fact, he’s probably one of just a couple of current pitchers who retains an outside shot of one day reaching 300 wins. Either way, the Yankees are counting on this horse to lead the way on a staff that’s been having problems.

4. Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers (35): Billingsley, now the Dodgers’ ace, has shown improvement this year by reducing his hit rates. One concern I have, however, is that his PPA has risen, meaning he won’t quite be able to work as deep into games as you’d hope. So far, that hasn’t hurt him, but it could be a factor.

5. Johan Santana, New York Mets (1): Santana got off to a brilliant start, but he’s looked quite human since, getting battered by the Yanks recently for the worst start of his career. The bottom line is, he’s giving up a few more baserunners than normal, but he’s still among the best in the biz. The Mets think they’ve identified a mechanical flaw that’s caused Santana’s recent struggles, but it’s still too early to tell if this will force him back up the rankings.

6. Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals (60): Greinke has taken another step forward this year, enjoying another big increase in his strikeout rate and putting in a strong enough early-season effort to make it onto our early All-Star team. What concerns me is the amount of complete games he’s tossed already (five after totalling three in his first five big league seasons) and the pace he’s on as far as innings pitched goes. Sure, no one wants to hand a lead off to the Royals’ relievers, but is Greinke’s right arm going to hold up at this pace?

7. Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks (10): Haren’s had another amazing start, and no starter in baseball has been harder to hit. He’s upped his K/9 rate slightly from last season’s career best, but unfortunately, Haren’s win total has been restricted by a weak Diamondback bullpen. Regardless, he’s enjoying a career year so far, culminating in a nod on our early-season All-Star team, but do be aware that he’s struggled in the second half of recent seasons. Right now, Haren is showing no signs of letting up, but because of his past, he’s an awesome sell-high candidate.

8. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox (6): Beckett had an awful start to his season, but up until his last start, he’s been cruising since the calendar flipped to May. His overall numbers and K/9 are down slightly, but again, given the roll he’s been on, there’s nothing to worry about from Beckett. Hell, he even went yard in a recent start.

9. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants (23): Cain just keeps shooting up the rankings thanks to his improved hit rates. His command has slipped slightly the past couple of seasons, but if you look at his recent work, there’s been absolutely nothing wrong with how sharp he’s been. Back in Spring Training, we wondered if he’d finally get the run support he needed, and the answer is a resounding “yes.” The Giants have supplied Cain with almost three more runs per game over last season, and that’s why it’s only mid-June, yet he already has more wins than he had in either of the past two seasons. Cain could arguably be the best pitcher in the National League right now, and if this keeps up, he’ll be in the top five very shortly.

10. Cole Hamels, Philadephia Phillies (15): Okay, Hamels hasn’t exactly pitched like he did during his World Series MVP performance last year — I’m especially worried about all the dingers he’s coughed up — but after a shitty start, which included an ankle injury, he’s gotten better as the season has progressed, so he should be good to go from here on out.

11. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (9): Verlander also endured a sluggish start, but he’s been absolutely sick since late-April. He’s never been harder to hit, and he just keeps getting stingier with the long ball even though he’s giving up more flyballs than ever before. That’ll give you some idea of how sharp Verlander has been as he heads towards a career year that includes a massive hike in his K/9 to personal-best levels.

12. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (13): King Felix just keeps getting better, and at the tender age of 23, you have to wonder just how high is this dude’s upside. His K rate has shot up to a new personal high and that’s helped his command rebound after a stumble in 2008. How good has Hernandez been lately? Well, until his last start, it had been over a month since the last time he surrendered more than one earned run in a start. Ya, I suppose he’s not bad.

13. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians (NR): We all knew that Lee wouldn’t be able to duplicate his ridiculously sublime 2008 Cy Young effort, but he hasn’t been too far off. He’s actually giving up less home runs, but all his other indicators are headed in the wrong direction: more walks, less strikeouts and a hit rate that has never been higher in his entire career. On the plus side, Lee has been getting better and better as the season progresses, so we don’t recommend selling low on him.

14. James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays (26): Shields keeps lowering his long ball rate, but his lack of overall consistency has resulted in far fewer wins at this stage of the season than you’d expect. We expressed concern about his hit rates last August, and it’s been even worse this season, yet a look at his ERA tells you he must be doing something right. Right?

15. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins (NR): Johnson is absolutely rolling now, and now that he’s finally healthy, the Marlins are allowing him to throw more pitches per start. And hell, why not? The dude has never been harder to hit. We liked him when he came off the DL last season, and he’s continued to prove us right since then.

16. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (50): Weaver has finally started putting up the results to match the hype that surrounded him when he first burst onto the scene back in 2006. He’s been healthy this season, and is on pace to smash his previous career high in innings pitched, and that’s definitely something we’d recommend monitoring in the second half. Weaver has improved his control, offsetting a slight reduction in K/9 as he continues to trend even further towards extreme flyball tendencies.

17. Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves (NR): Jurrjens had a superb start to the season, but he’s come back to earth since. While his control is slightly better this year, he’s been rather unlucky lately, suffering from a lack of run support that’s left him with a mediocre record. Jurrjens deserves a better fate, but I’m not sure he’s headed in that direction given his season trends.

18. Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds (18): Harang has bounced back impressively after a horrid 2008 season. His control is much improved, but his K/9 has dipped slightly. Still, he’s already just one win shy of matching his total from all of last season, and with a bit of luck, he would be there already.

19. Edwin Jackson, Detroit Tigers (NR): Jackson’s K rate has rebounded after a big dropoff in 2008 and he’s been very consistent so far this year. We identified him as enjoying a breakout early, and he’s done nothing to convince us differently since. In fact, Jackson has been absolutely rolling recently, going 5-1, 1.61 in his last seven starts.

20. Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox (34): Enjoying his lowest BAA since 2001.

21. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals (NR): Opponents can’t touch him right now.

22. Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins (NR): Amazing walk rate even better this season.

23. Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves (42): Lowe’s command hasn’t been nearly as good as it was last year, and he’s gotten progressively worse results as the season has grown older. I called him a sell-high candidate last month, and it’s possible I may have been bang on, as just two of his five subsequent starts have been solid.

24. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (47): Giving up more homers.

25. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox (56): Pedestrian record, but he’s been untouchable lately.

26. Javier Vazquez, Atlanta Braves (19): Harder to hit than ever before.

27. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds (NR): Improved control from maturing pitcher.

28. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (39): Averaging over a K/IP for first time.

29. Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs (8): Once durable horse starting to have health woes.

30. Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros (64): Peripherals don’t support improved ERA.

31. Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners (7): Was looking great, but back on DL again.

32. Matt Garza, Tampa Bay Rays (69): Has gone over a month since his last win.

33. Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros (11): Durable and dependable for past few seasons.

34. A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees (22): Finally over his injury-prone ways.

35. Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati Reds (NR): Many scoffed when we put him on our 2009 busts list.

36. Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (NR): Increased strikeout rate suggests he’s healthy despite weak results.

37. Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Rays (14): Was getting hammered before landing on DL.

38. Scott Baker, Minnesota Twins (66): Shaking off rough start.

39. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays (NR): In the rotation for good now.

40. John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels (4): Had at least been limiting the HRs until recently.

41. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs (NR): The long balls have been a problem, but are improving.

42. Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees (52): Hasn’t been sharp, but a bit better lately.

43. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies (74): His BAA keeps rising, but the ERA keeps dropping.

44. Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels (NR): Way too hittable and health is a worry.

45. Randy Wolf, Los Angeles Dodgers (78): The Wolf is healthy at last.

46. Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals (48): Ignore his record; Meche is dealing.

47. Chris Volstad, Florida Marlins (NR): Improved control, but taking his lumps lately.

48. Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins (58): Control has been an issue as he struggles to rediscover his pre-injury form.

49. Rich Harden, Chicago Cubs (62): Health always a concern, and now he’s being hurt by the long ball.

50. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks (3): Shoulder woe could derail season.

Others to Consider

51. John Danks, Chicago White Sox (NR)
52. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox (24)
53. Josh Outman, Oakland Athletics (NR)
54. Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (NR)
55. Kevin Millwood, Texas Rangers (NR)
56. Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs (44)
57. Jarrod Washburn, Seattle Mariners (92)
58. Chris Young, San Diego Padres (25)
59. Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels (NR)
60. Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals (NR)
61. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (NR)
62. Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh Pirates (NR)
63. Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox (61)
64. Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers (67)
65. Randy Johnson, San Francisco Giants (70)
66. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves (NR)
67. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres (2)
68. Aaron Cook, Colorado Rockies (NR)
69. Max Scherzer, Arizona Diamondbacks (NR)
70. John Maine, New York Mets (37)
71. Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals (NR)
72. J.A. Happ, Philadelphia Phillies (NR)
73. Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets (NR)
74. Phil Hughes, New York Yankees (55)
75. Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins (NR)
76. Doug Davis, Arizona Diamondbacks (90)
77. Carl Pavano, Cleveland Indians (NR)
78. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Rays (NR)
79. Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds (80)
80. Kenshin Kawakami, Atlanta Braves (NR)
81. Dave Bush, Milwaukee Brewers (79)
82. John Lannan, Washington Nationals (NR)
83. Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants (54)
84. Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees (43)
85. Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies (NR)
86. Brad Penny, Boston Red Sox (31)
87. Vince Mazzaro, Oakland Athletics (NR)
88. Koji Uehara, Baltimore Orioles (NR)
89. Brian Tallet, Toronto Blue Jays (NR)
90. Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco Giants (NR)
91. Scott Richmond, Toronto Blue Jays (NR)
92. Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox (NR)
93. Brandon McCarthy, Texas Rangers (NR)
94. Jason Marquis, Colorado Rockies (NR)
95. Todd Wellemeyer, St. Louis Cardinals (NR)
96. Scott Feldman, Texas Rangers (NR)
97. Livan Hernandez, New York Mets (NR)
98. Dallas Braden, Oakland Athletics (NR)
99. Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics (NR)
100. Clayton Richard, Chicago White Sox (NR)

Cheat Sheet Archives

2009

Third Base
Prospects
Outfield
Designated Hitter
Relief Pitchers

2009 Preseason

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop

2008

Prospects

2008 Preseason

Starting Pitcher
Relief Pitcher
Outfield

2007

Third base
Shortstop
Second base
First base
Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

By Tim McLeod and RotoRob

Relief pitching is perhaps the most volatile position in all of Fantasy baseball. Today, your dude is closing games; tomorrow, he’s relegated to mop-up innings in 17-4 games. Nowhere else is a player’s value so contingent upon his use as it is in the bullpen. Already this year, we’ve seen tons of closers implode or get hurt, thereby thrusting others into instant Fantasy value.

1. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins: Nathan gave up more homers last season, but who cares? He enjoyed perhaps his finest season yet, and has been flawless so far this year, justifying his likely fifth round selection.

2. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox: Papelbon’s K/9 dropped and his ERA rose last season, yet thanks to his amazing command, he was able to set career highs in wins and saves. He’s dominating as usual this season, and Boston is wisely being judicious with his workload in the early going.

3. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers: Broxton’s workload was reduced last season as he made the mid-season transition to closing. He had a few struggles, but it was more or less a seamless move that he’s been ready for now for a while. In the early going in 2009, Broxton has been absolutely dominating and it looks like we’re seeing his breakthrough year.

4. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees: The Yanks have slightly reduced Rivera’s workload in the past few years and that’s worked very well as in 2008 he enjoyed one of his best seasons ever. In fact, the paltry .165 that opponents his against Mo was his career best. It’s been more of the same so far this season as Rivera has justified his fifth round selection. This dude’s 39 now? Whatever!

5. Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets: Rodriguez had a season for the ages in 2008, breaking the saves record and parlaying that into a big money deal from the Mets, who so desperately needed a bullpen overhaul. He set the tone on Opening Day, and K-Rod has been untouchable since, although the back spasms are worrisome. The fact that he’s got an almost equally gifted reliever setting him up in J.J. Putz should make life even easier for K-Rod in the NL.

6. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox: Jenks enjoyed a third straight season of at least 30 saves last year, but his K/9 has been dropping like a stone along with his velocity and he was easier to hit. The hit rates keep going up, and frankly this is a situation we’re a bit concerned about. In fact, we’ve already been touting Jenks’ possible replacement. Jenks hasn’t been employing his curve this season, and with his reduced velocity, that’s spelling trouble.

7. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres: Bell allowed more dingers last year, and his results suffered to an extent. Of course, duplicating his brilliant 2007 would have been nearly impossible. With Trevor Hoffman gone, Bell has taken over as the closer in San Diego, a promotion that earned him 11th round draft status. The transition couldn’t have gone better so far, as he’s been flawless, quickly establishing himself as one of the best looking closers in the game.

8. Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels: Fuentes earned his third 30-save season with the Rox last year, enjoying probably his finest campaign yet. He’s become harder and harder to hit over the last few seasons, but he’s getting cuffed around in the early going for the Angels in 2009. In fact, Scot Shields has already jumped in to earn a save, however he has been unable to take advantage of Fuentes’ struggles, as he’s struggling himself. Shockingly, the normally superb Halo pen is the AL’s worst so far.

9. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds: Cordero was a workhorse the Reds’ pen last year, but I have concerns about his slipping K rates, rising hit rates and command issues that continue to get worse. So far, none of this has affected his bottom line results this season, but I worry whether Cordero will deliver 11th round value. Still, he’s just the 11th pitcher to save 100 games in both leagues, an impressive feat worthy of recognition.

10. Frank Francisco, Texas Rangers: Francisco proved he was capable of closing down the stretch last season, and since he’s taken over the job full-time this year, he’s been absolutely unhittable, looking like a bargain as an 11th round pick. In fact, if this keeps up, you may see Francisco pitching in the All-Star Game in a few weeks.

11. Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals: Franklin was hurt by walks and homers last season – a truly deadly combination for any pitcher. But this season, he was in the mix of many as the potential Cardinal closer, and when Jason Motte was ineffective from the get-go, we called it right on Opening Day that Franklin would be a good pickup. And man, did we nail that one. He’s dramatically upped his K rate and has been unhittable, racking up the 1-2-3 innings.

12. Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers: Hoffman missed time last year, yet still managed a 13th 30-save season. He recently returned from another injury – a little of ahead of schedule, even – and took over the closer role, looking sharp in the process.

13. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals: Soria gave up more homers last year, but his bottom line results were unbelievable, and in fact, probably unsustainable. Make no mistake, however. This kid’s for real, and I love the fact that despite getting touched up a bit this year, he was racking up the Ks in the early going before hitting the DL. Soria has truly arrived as a standout closer, and I expect him to be a big part of the Royal resurgence. Hopefully upon his return, his set-up men will do a better job of bridging the gap so he can get more saves.

14. Brad Lidge, Philadephia Phillies: Lidge was virtually unhittable last season, and while his rising walk total is worrisome, it never came back to haunt him as he was perfect in save opportunities, capping an incredible first year in Philly. However, his consecutive save streak has already been snapped this season, and he’s been getting roughed up in the early going, not what you were hoping for from a closer you likely used a seventh round pick on.

15. Jose Valverde, Houston Astros: Valverde was more prone to the long ball and was more hittable last season, but he remains among the best in the biz. The homers continue to be a problem in the early going in 2009, and now he’s dealing with injury issues that will keep him on the DL for another few weeks, but upon his return, I’d bank on another solid campaign from Valverde – especially considering he has the incentive of impending free agency looming.

16. Huston Street, Colorado Rockies: Street struggled out of the gate, losing his job. But when it appeared he had reclaimed the gig, we recommended him, and it was a great call as Street has been lights out since. Dramatically improved control and a much higher K rate have led to him being perfect in save chances so far.

17. Mike Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves: Gonzalez has dealt with injuries issues in recent seasons, returning from Tommy John surgery in June last year, so we’ll excuse whatever rust showed. He’s healthy now and looking better so far this season. Now if Gonzalez can just stay healthy…

18. Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants: Wilson took over as full-time closer last season and had his struggles from time to time, but he looked very sharp in the early going before hitting more struggles this month. His strikeout rate has dipped since the start of the season, and that makes me concerned whether he will be worth that 11th round pick you spent on him.

19. Matt Capps, Pittsburgh Pirates: Capps missed time with a shoulder injury last season, so he wasn’t as sharp despite massively improved control. He’s already missed some time this year, and he’s been downright awful this month after a superb start to the season. Despite Capps’s struggles, the Pirate bullpen looks better and the team has been more competitive in the early going, so his job security has to be called into question – could Sean Burnett get a chance to close if Capps keeps faltering?

20. George Sherrill, Baltimore Orioles: Sherrill earned the closer role last season almost by default and didn’t exactly wow anyone. This year, his K rate has dipped and he’s been hit harder – especially by righties. However, given that his bottom line results have been better and Chris Ray is sucking, Sherrill’s job is more secure lately than during Spring Training when we assumed he entered the season on borrowed time.

21. Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks: Qualls had a strong season as a set-up man, but the question of whether he could close or not was a valid one heading into this season. In fact, we weren’t sure he was going to last the season in this role. So far this season Qualls has been more hittable, so the jury remains out on his long-term future as a closer.

22. Kevin Gregg, Chicago Cubs: Gregg has been responsible for turning many a Cub fan prematurely grey this season. While his control was bad last year, it’s been even worse in 2009, only this year, it’s coming back to haunt him. The saving grace for Gregg has been that his Ks are way up. He got on a bit of a roll earlier this month, leading us to speculate that he had solidified his grasp on the closer job, but then he promptly got shelled in his very next outing. Gregg is definitely not a sure thing, but his job remains safe for the time being.

23. Fernando Rodney, Detroit Tigers: Everyone expects Joel Zumaya to take over the Tiger closer job sooner rather than later, but Rodney has been impressive, converting every save chance he’s had so far. The key to his turnaround has been massively improved control. Sure, Rodney’s K/9 has dropped significantly as well, but he’s never pitched with this good command. Still, the Tigers have options, so Rodney’s probably on a short leash, making him a fine sell-high candidate.

24. Scott Downs, Toronto Blue Jays: When B.J. Ryan went down with an injury, Downs took over the closer job in Toronto, and he’s taken the gig and run with it, already matching his save total from all of last season. Ryan’s back now, but Downs, with his ridiculously good 11-to-1 K/BB ratio is still holding down the fort, and he really hasn’t given the Jays any reason to make a change.

25. Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians: Wood finally stayed healthy and enjoyed a fine first season as a closer. Now in Cleveland, he got off to a strong start, but has been touched up quite a but lately, and his control has been awful, leaving in question not only his job, but how much value he’ll deliver as a ninth round pick.

26. Brad Ziegler, Oakland Athletics: Ziegler burst onto the scene last year, setting a new record for consecutive scoreless innings to start a career. This season, however, has been another story, despite the fact that Joey Devine’s injury seemed to hand Ziegler the keys to the kingdom. He’s striking out more batters, but is getting hit far too easily. In fact, his anything but overpowering fastball is among the easiest to hit among all major league pitchers. Ziegler is on the verge of losing his closer job – if he hasn’t already.

27. Matt Lindstrom, Florida Marlins: Lindstrom, who came to the Marlins in a 2006 trade with the Mets, got touched up a bit more last year, but showed he could save games, so he earned the closer role this year. He’s upped his strikeout rate and was superb in the early going, looking like he was well worth a 14th round pick. However, his control has been atrocious lately, so I’d be very worried that he’ll soon be hitting the DL, or just losing his job outright.

28. David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners: Thanks to one of the most untouchable fastballs in the game and improved control this season, Aardsma has finally broken through and is at last delivering on his promise. When Brandon Morrow went down, Aardsma got his chance to close, and he’s still playing the part since Morrow has returned. In fact, with a run of 11 straight scoreless outings (11 1/3 IP, 6 H, 6 BB, 15 K), Aardsma looks like he’s locking down the gig.

29. Juan Cruz, Kansas City Royals: We recommended Cruz as the man once Soria got hurt for the Royals, but he hasn’t exactly been a sure thing – struggling especially in May, and taking a serious pounding Thursday. Cruz is getting plenty of action this year, but what happened to his usually prodigious strikeout rate? Without the Ks, his results have slipped this season. With Soria out another couple of weeks, Cruz remains a source of saves; not necessarily a good source, but a source nonetheless.

30. LaTroy Hawkins, Houston Astros: We recommended picking up Hawkins once Valverde went down, and for the most part, he’s been very effective this year, already earning the most saves he’s had since 2005. But earlier this week, the cracks started to show, he’s dealing with a hip woe and Hawkins only has the gig temporarily, as Valverde could be back as soon as next week.

Others to Consider

31. Joel Hanrahan, Washington Nationals: Hanrahan took over as the closer late last season and enjoyed a fine year. However, thanks to some trouble with lefties, he got cuffed around pretty good in the early going. Hanrahan’s command has been sharp, though, and he’s turned the corner and has look much more effective this month.
32. Jason Isringhausen, Tampa Bay Rays
33. Dan Wheeler, Tampa Bay Rays
34. Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
35. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays: Ryan returned from Tommy John surgery to enjoy a fine season last year, striking out a batter per inning. However, he experienced some serious control problems early this year, making us wonder if he was hurt. Sure enough, he was and landed on the DL less than two weeks later. He’s been back for a couple of weeks and has been better, but hardly effective. Ryan clearly is not ready to regain the closer job right now.
36. Brandon Morrow, Seattle Mariners
37. Rafael Soriano, Atlanta Braves
38. J.J. Putz, New York Mets
39. Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs: Marmol was next to unhittable last year, although he did give up more homers than usual. Still, he was one of the top set-up men in the majors and was expected to take over as the Cub closer with Wood leaving town, something that had him being picked in the ninth round. Unfortunately, Gregg is getting most of the save chances in Chicago, and the fact that Marmol has already blown a couple of chances doesn’t bode well. His overall results will continue to be restricted until he addresses that awful control.
40. C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers
41. Troy Percival, Tampa Bay Rays: Percival stayed somewhat healthy (for him, anyways) last year, and enjoyed a nice comeback season. This year, he was healthy for the first few weeks, but his continuingly weakened command was really affecting his results. Now, shoulder tendonitis has cropped up, and there’s talk that the 39-year-old may pack it in. I’d say at this point, the 14th round pick you used on him is in peril of becoming a waste.
42. Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
43. Chris Perez, St. Louis Cardinals
44. Manny Corpas, Colorado Rockies: Corpas’ strikeout rate dropped significantly last year, and he struggled accordingly. Somehow, he got the closer job back from an awful Huston Street, but pitched so pathetically that he handed it right back. Corpas’ command has actually been quite good this season, but maybe he needs to be a bit wilder, because all his strikes are getting hammered. In fact, it’s so bad that the Rox were talking about sending him down, although he has pitched marginally better this month.
45. John Grabow, Pittsburgh Pirates
46. Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
47. Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
48. Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers
49. Jensen Lewis, Cleveland Indians
50. Jose Arredondo, Los Angles Angels
51. Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles
52. Scot Shields, Los Angeles Angels
53. Carlos Villanueva, Milwaukee Brewers
54. Octavio Dotel, Chicago White Sox
55. Takashi Saito, Boston Red Sox
56. Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays
57. Tony Pena, Arizona Diamondbacks
58. Santiago Casilla, Oakland Athletics
59. Hideki Okajima, Boston Red Sox
60. Scott Linebrink, Chicago White Sox
61. Justin Masterson, Boston Red Sox
62. Jeremy Affeldt, San Francisco Giants
63. Brian Bruney, New York Yankees
64. Manny Delcarmen, Boston Red Sox
65. Joe Nelson, Tampa Bay Rays
66. Todd Coffey, Milwaukee Brewers
67. Jose Mijares, Minnesota Twins
68. Ramon Troncoso, Los Angeles Dodgers
69. Edward Mujica, San Diego Padres
70. Ryan Perry, Detroit Tigers
71. Jason Frasor, Toronto Blue Jays
72. Miguel Batista, Seattle Mariners: Batista spent most of 2008 in the rotation, but was better as a reliever. However, he was far too hittable last season. This year, he’s pitching exclusively out of the pen, and he’s cut his hit rates, is keeping the ball in the park, and doing a very good job. When Brandon Morrow went on the DL, Batista took over as the top set-up man, but he does have closing experience. In fact, he saved a game early last season, and a rumoured trade to the Nats and their bullpen of disarray could see Batista installed as a closer again.
73. Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
74. Brandon Lyon, Detroit Tigers: Lyon was way too hittable last season, and his results suffered accordingly. He’s doing better in that department this year, but his truly awful command has resulted in even worse bottom line numbers. Last month, I thought Lyon might have a chance to emerge with some value, but he’s been even worse since then, and currently only has value in AL-only leagues.
75. Jon Rauch, Arizona Diamondbacks
76. Ronald Belisario, Los Angeles Dodgers
77. David Weathers, Cincinnati Reds
78. Cory Wade, Los Angeles Dodgers
79. Matt Guerrier, Minnesota Twins
80. Merkin Valdez, San Francisco Giants
81. Kiko Calero, Florida Marlins
82. Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox
83. Dan Meyer, Florida Marlins
84. Joe Beimel, Washington Nationals
85. Jason Bermann, Washington Nationals
86. Cla Meredith, San Diego Padres
87. Clay Condrey, Philadelphia Phillies
88. Chad Cordero, Seattle Mariners

Cheat Sheet Archives

2009

Third Base
Prospects
Outfield
Designated Hitter

2009 Preseason

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop

2008

Prospects

2008 Preseason

Starting Pitcher
Relief Pitcher
Outfield

2007

Third base
Shortstop
Second base
First base
Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

By Tim McLeod and RotoRob

We’re back, with more of our 2009 in-season Fantasy rankings, today focusing on the least glamorous offensive position there is — the designated hitter. Hey, somebody’s got to it, right?

Although he qualified at outfield last season, we’ve listed Jason Kubel here, as we expect him to mostly DH this year. If he was listed among the outfielders, he’d rank No. 67. Gary Sheffield was originally ticketed for this list, but when he wound up in the NL, we had to nix that idea. And it’s too late to include him among the outfielders which we already released last month, so the best we can do is tell you he’d currently rank No. 86 as an outfielder.

1. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: Wrist problems really brought Ortiz’s numbers down in 2008, and he wasn’t the hitting machine we’ve come to expect. He’s ostensibly healthy this season, yet, so far, he’s been struggling even worse than he did last year. Recently, we advised owners not to panic, but nothing has improved since then. Everyone is anxiously awaiting the real Big Papi to show up, but is it fair to wonder how much he misses the protection that Manny Ramirez used to provide?

2. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox: Sure, he’s one of just five active players with over 500 career homers; in fact, Thome is now sitting just five shy of 550. But he’s been in decline for a couple of years now, especially in the BA department, and that’s something that is not likely to reverse itself soon. Sure, he remains an important part of a powerful Sox lineup, is still capable of launching the long ball, and remains a solid run producer, but he’s no longer a must-own Fantasy commodity in shallower mixed leagues.

3. Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins: Kubel broke through with his first 20-homer season last year, and as he enters his power prime, he looks poised to take it to the next level. A productive start has made him a waiver wire fave in the early going, but note that with that the crowded Minnesota outfield, he won’t spend a lot of time shagging balls, even though he is a capable fielder. Look for Kubel to snag the occasional start in the outfield when one of the infielders needs a rest and takes over his DH spot.

4. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians: Hafner hit rock bottom last season, struggling through a right shoulder injury that sapped him of his once-feared extra-base pop and limited him to 57 games, ultimately requiring surgery in October. Pronk looked lost, striking out way more often and simply being unable to reach base consistently. This season, despite a sluggish spring, Hafner was making a great comeback, rediscovering his power stroke. Unfortunately, the same shoulder has become a problem again, landing him back on the DL. It’s awful news for those you who took a gamble on him with an 18th round pick and looked to be getting a great return on your investment for the first few weeks of the season.

5. Frank Thomas, F/A: Frank Thomas was better with the A’s than he was in Toronto, but not enough so to stop them from cutting him free. We wondered at the time if this was it for the Big Hurt, and while there are teams that could use help (how about having him finish his career back where it started with the White Sox?), so far there’s been no news of a possible deal with anyone. If he doesn’t land something by mid-season, Thomas will likely pack it in, 32 hits shy of 2,500 for his career.

Cheat Sheet Archives

2009

Third Base
Prospects
Outfield

2009 Preseason

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop

2008

Prospects

2008 Preseason

Starting Pitcher
Relief Pitcher
Outfield

2007

Third base
Shortstop
Second base
First base
Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

By Buck Davidson, Tim McLeod and Herija Green

The crop of outfielders this season is considerably improved from 2008. There are plenty of young kids with upside and lots more on the way.

Note that we listed Mark DeRosa here (where he does qualify), although he spent much of his time at second base in 2008. He’s more valuable as a second baseman, obviously, and if he were listed at 2B, DeRosa would rank No. 9. Also, we list Ian Stewart here, who only qualifies as a third baseman, but will see most of his time as an outfielder this year, barring trade/injury. The same applies for Carlos Guillen, who qualifies at third and first, but not OF heading into 2009.

Also, Jason Kubel is not listed here; we opted to include him in our DH rankings. If he were here, he’d be No. 67.

Gary Sheffield was ticketed for our DH rankings, then he got released and wound up in the NL with the Mets, so now, he has to be an outfielder. If he were here, he’d be No. 86.

As an aside, with this post, we welcome Buck Davidson to the fold. He wrote most of the outfield profiles and did a superb job! We hope to bring you more of his work in the near future, but he’s using Scott Boras as an agent, so negotiations are tense.

1. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians: Sizemore possesses a rare combination of power and speed, and he displayed those tools by posting his first 30-30 season in 2008. He delivers the goods in four fantasy categories, but those numbers come at a bit of a cost – namely, batting average. Sizemore’s average has fallen from .290 in 2006 to .277 in ’07 to .268 last season, and when you factor in his 600-plus at bats, that mediocre BA can really take its toll on your fantasy cause. Sizemore’s other numbers are just too good to pass on him, but be prepared to grab a player with good batting average numbers later in your draft to balance things out.

2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers: The Hebrew Hammer delivered on some lofty expectations last season, following up his breakthrough 2007 campaign with another strong showing in ’08. Braun can launch bombs with the best of them, and the fact that he’ll also steal a dozen or so bases just sweetens the deal. On the downside, his batting average took a tumble last season, but fantasy owners will gladly take .280-plus in view of the across-the-board production Braun brings to the party. The thumb injury he has been dealing with this spring looks to be minor, and judging by his excellent performance Opening Day, including a stolen base, it’s a non issue.

3. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers: The world met Josh Hamilton at the 2008 Home Run Derby, and casual fans discovered what anyone who had seen this kid swing a bat already knew: Hamilton can flat out mash. His power numbers took a sharp dip after his impressive Derby showing (but there’s no Derby Jinx…really…there isn’t) so he carries a bit of risk this season. Hamilton is still a special talent, though, and he’ll play half his games in homer-happy Rangers Ballpark. Look for Hamilton to be back among the league leaders in homers and RBI by season’s end, with respectable peripheral numbers to boot.

4. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets: Beltran racked up his third straight impressive season in 2008, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t pick up where he left off in ’09. The new yard might affect his numbers a bit, but considering the .297-14-61 line he posted at pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium last year, one shouldn’t dwell too long on Beltran’s prospects at Bailout Park…errr…Citi Field. Beltran is a great fantasy performer who makes a fine – and safe – choice as your top outfielder on draft day.

5. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros: Lee looked to be on his way to a monster season when a broken finger ended his 2008 campaign two months early. El Caballo is still feeling some soreness in that digit, and has been slow out of the gate this season. Don’t let it concern you, though: Lee is one of baseball’s most consistent power hitters, and is a safe bet for 30-plus dingers and 100 RBI again in 2009. He’ll also generally finish with an average around .300 and even steal a few bases – despite his ample waistline.

6. Matt Holliday, Oakland Athletics: Everyone has an opinion on Holliday this season, and most of that chatter revolves around how the move from homer-happy Coors Field to Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum will affect his fantasy stud-dom. The numbers do not look good for Matty’s prospects: he has batted just .280 on the road in his career, with a homer rate roughly half what he produced at Coors. That’s all well and good for the historians among us, but we’re more focused on the fact that Holliday’s road batting average has been .301 and .308 the past two seasons. Don’t look for 30 bombs from Holliday this season, but .310-25-100 with 10-to-12 steals is certainly reasonable…and a fine line from your top fantasy outfielder.

7. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners: It should tell you how good this guy is when he can hit .311 with 43 steals, slap out 213 hits and score 103 runs and still be reckoned to have had an “off year.” That was the case with Ichiro in 2008, and now he has landed on the DL with fatigue due to a bleeding ulcer. You late drafters out there can probably get Ichiro on the cheap, but know that he’s strictly a three-category contributor in standard roto scoring.

8. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers: Manny’s free agency non-signing dominated the hot stove news over the winter, and after all the innuendo, statements, offers, rejections and retirement threats, he was right back in L.A. That’s a good thing; during his stint with the Dodgers last season, Ramirez treated NL pitching like Godzilla treats Tokyo, and more monster numbers should be in store for Man-Ram in 2009. Expect the usual “Manny being Manny” nonsense at various times during the season, but don’t let that persuade you to pass on one of the best hitters of the past 20 years.

9. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays: Like Ichiro, Upton will open the season on the DL, but that’s largely due to a hand injury he suffered after being hit by a pitch. His surgically repaired left shoulder seems fine, meaning that, unlike Ichiro, Upton presents some serious upside to owners willing to take a chance on him come draft day. His sore wing limited him to just nine dingers last season, but keep in mind that he launched 24 round-trippers in 2007, and seven bombs in the ’08 playoffs. Oh, by the way, B.J. also swiped 44 bases last season, and more of the same should be in store once Melvin makes it back onto the field. Don’t let him fall too far in your draft, and don’t be afraid to low-ball another owner in trade talks for the talented young outfielder.

10. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers: Kemp burst onto the fantasy baseball scene in a big way last season, and his .290-18-76 line with 35 steals has potential fantasy owners drooling for more five-cat stud-dom in 2009. But stay your spittle, Pavlov: Kemp fanned 153 times last season, and it’s hard to imagine him maintaining a respectable batting average until he slays Whiff the Magic Dragon. Also, bear in mind that those 35 swipes of a season ago was Kemp’s best performance at any professional level. All right, kick off that wet blanket and marvel at this toolsy young outfielder; Kemp is probably not yet a No. 1 fantasy outfielder, but he’s a great No. 2.

11. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles: Nicky Mark had another nice season in 2008, and bumped his OBP up to a lofty .406 in the process. He probably won’t ever be an elite power hitter: 25-to-28 dingers may be his ceiling – but he should rack up the ribbies…and the across-the-board production he provides makes him a very palatable option once the top outfielders are off the board. Keeper league owners take note: Markakis is still only 25 years of age, and may still have some upside – especially in the stolen base department.

12. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels: Vladdy’s battered body showed signs of betraying him in 2008, limiting the slugger to just 143 games and a rather pedestrian (for him) .303-27-91. He looks healthy again following off-season knee surgery, and may be a nice gamble to take once the Big Boys are off the outfielder draft board. Guerrero’s days of stealing double-digit bases are probably long gone, but he remains one of baseball’s best natural hitters. Just be sure to back him up with a serviceable option later in the draft.

13. Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox: Bay is a solid hitter who is entrenched in the middle of what should be one of baseball’s most potent offenses. While he doesn’t have the intimidating presence of his predecessor Manny Ramirez, Bay is a virtual lock for a line around .280-30-100 with close to 100 runs scored. Great stuff for any fantasy outfielder.

14. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: Don’t draft Soriano with the starry-eyed expectations of a 30-30 campaign: He hasn’t swiped more than 19 bags since 2006. Since he bats in the lead-off spot for the Cubbies, Soriano’s dingers won’t plate nearly the number of RBI you’d expect, and his free-swinging ways keeps his on-base percentage in the sub-par range. All that being said, Soriano has said he wants to steal more bases this year, and that desire alone should compel you to think that at least two dozen pilfers are in store for the man that some Cubbie faithful call The Fonz.

15. Alex Rios, Toronto Blue Jays: Rios’ last two seasons make him something of an enigma: His homer total dropped from 24 in ’07 to 15 last year, while his stolen base tally jumped from 17 to 32. Which begs the question – is he a power hitter with modest speed, or a speed merchant with some pop? What is for certain is that Rios is a talented and athletic hitter who is capable of contributing meaningful numbers in all five roto categories. We’re impressed by Rios’ 11 dingers in the second half last season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him make a run at a 25/25 season in 2009 – while still batting his typical .290-something.

16. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies: The Flyin’ Hawaiian tore up the basepaths for 36 stolen bases last season, and he cemented a starting role for himself in the process. Victorino is not a one-trick pony either, as his homers (14), batting average (.293) and runs total (102) were all plus figures in fantasy terms. More should be in store for Victorino this season, as he again plies his trade in one of the National League’s most productive lineups. He is a fine choice to complement the powerful but ponderous sluggers you may have drafted in the early rounds.

17. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers: Granderson stole a mere 12 bases last season, and saw his average drop to .280 after a stellar .302 showing – with 26 steals – in ’07. Grandy’s bat misses the ball a lot, so there’s reason to believe he may have been a bit over his skis during his breakout 2007 season. He was dealing with a hand injury for most of last season, though, so he may well be back in 20/20 territory by the end of the 2009 campaign. Granderson should score a bushel of runs batting atop the Tigers’ potent lineup, and his 2008 struggles may lower his draft day value to the bargain range.

18. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays: CC took a step backward last season, and he has tumbled down 2009 fantasy draft boards as a result. Don’t buy it – Crawford battled injuries last season, and managed only 443 at bats during the regular season. His mediocre .273 average marked the first time in four seasons that he had slipped below the .300 mark, and he should be right back at that level again now that he’s healthy. Look for a return to typical numbers for Crawford this year: a .300 average, 50 steals and about 12-15 dingers, all of which should come at a bargain price on draft day.

19. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox: Quentin was pounding out an MVP-caliber season before smacking his bat with his fist in early September. No report on what the bat might have said to warrant such treatment. The resultant broken wrist ended his season and may have ended whatever hopes the ChiSox had for a deep playoff run. He looks fine this spring, so don’t let last year’s injury worry you into passing on Quentin as your No. 2 fantasy outfielder. He won’t steal many bases, but the prodigious power he displayed during his first season as a starter gives Quentin solid fantasy value.

20. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers: Hart has put together back-to-back 20-20 seasons, so it’s a virtual certainty that those sunglasses he wears at night need not be of the prescription variety. All right, now that that’s out the way, so let’s get to it. It’s a bit troubling that Hart’s batting average tumbled 27 points last year, but much of that was due to an anemic .173 showing in September. He has been tearing it up this spring, so a nice rebound season could be in the offing for the Sunglass Man. Draft Hart with the expectation of a line somewhere in the .275-20-80 range, and you shouldn’t be disappointed…and may end up pleasantly surprised.

21. Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals: The move from Cincy to D.C shouldn’t hurt Dunn’s power numbers too much; this guy can hit it out of any park out there – including Yellowstone. You know what you’re getting with the burly blonde slugger: Plenty of bombs, even more strikeouts, and a surprisingly good on-base percentage. His batting average has only eclipsed .250 once in the past five seasons, while his OBP has hovered right around .380 – meaning Dunn’s value can jump considerably in leagues that use OBP or OPS instead of batting average. Fundamental Fantasy Rule: Know your stat cats.

22. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels: He didn’t hit the free agency jackpot he was seeking, but Abreu landed in a good place in Anaheim. He’ll bat in the middle of a powerful Angels lineup, and centre fielder Torii Hunter will be there to offset Abreu’s ever-decreasing range. What Abreu can do is hit, though he is not the same power threat he once was. Come to think of it, he hasn’t been the same since his historic performance in the 2005 Home Run Derby (there’s no jinx, though – remember?). Look for 15-to-20 bombs, 90-to-100 RBI, 20-to-25 steals and another .300 batting average this season.

23. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox: Ellsbury’s lack of power limits his fantasy appeal to some extent, but the stolen bases and run production he gives your team will certainly help kill the pain. His homer rate did increase slightly in the second half last season, but expecting more than about 10-to-12 homers is probably unrealistic. If you draft Jacoby, be sure you have some muscle men (or at least some fat guys who can leave the yard) elsewhere on your roster, or your power category numbers will suffer as a result.

24. Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh Pirates: McLouth was a popular breakout pick last season, and after winning the starting job he never looked back. When the dust had settled, McLouth had quietly (which is the way baseball-related things happen in the Steel City these days) become what can best be described as Grady Sizemore Lite. He may not be a fantasy stud like his C-Town mate, but Nate Mac does many of the same things that make Sizemore a top 10 fantasy player. There is some risk here, as McLouth’s power numbers took a dive in the second half of last season, but he had a strong spring and is well worth a mid-round draft selection.

25. Hunter Pence, Houston Astros: Pence was a “can’t miss” who did just that last season, slipping to .269 after raking out a .322 mark in 2007. Amid all the hand wringing amongst his fantasy owners, though, Pence still managed 25 bombs, plated 83 RBI and swiped 11 bases. His eye will need to improve before he ascends to the next level, but for now Pence is a low-end No. 2 or top-notch No. 2 fantasy outfielder – with a fair amount of upside if he can improve his on-base skills.

26. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox: Is your top fantasy outfielder a speed merchant with about as much pop as a wet firecracker? Well, pay attention, because we’ve found you a running mate to Dye for. The ChiSox slugger has averaged 34 homers and 95 RBI over the past four seasons, and with a .276 lifetime batting average, he won’t kill you in that department, either. Dye can be a bit streaky, but he’s still a solid major league hitter – especially in the friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field, where he batted a cool .336 last season. Dye doesn’t get enough respect in many fantasy drafts, and he’s a great source of power that is often available in the latter stages of the middle rounds.

27. Brad Hawpe, Colorado Rockies: Hawpe stands to be one of the prime beneficiaries of Matt Holliday’s departure, and he could be in for a breakout year. Why? Because after two seasons of struggling against left-handed pitching, Hawpe batted .282 against southpaws last year. His success is not tied to Coors Field, as he’s an equally good hitter on the road. If he can continue to fare well against lefties, Hawpe has the potential to get back to the kind of performance he displayed back in 2007, when he posted a fine .291-29-116 line. He is a great choice as your No. 3 fantasy outfielder – with the upside to perform like a No. 2.

28. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays: The two key words when discussing Wells are “when healthy.” Injuries again limited Wells in 2008, but his .318-11-36 line in 44 second half games shows what he’s capable of when he’s on the field. Take a look at his numbers the last time he recorded 600 at bats, which was back in 2006: .303-32-106 with 17 stolen bases. A sore hammy and left wrist troubled him this spring, but Wells says the hamstring is doing well now and his upside makes him worth a pick as your third or fourth outfielder. If you do draft him, make sure you have a viable back-up plan in place for when – not if – the injury bug bites again.

29. Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers: Maggs is simply one of the best hitters in baseball, but he doesn’t get a lot of love on fantasy draft day. Why? Some still see him as an injury risk, though he has played at least 146 games each of the last three seasons. It’s not a question of productivity, as he has amassed at least 21 homers and 103 RBI in each of those campaigns, while batting .363 and .317 the past two years. Ordonez turned 35 years old in January, and he does have an extensive injury history, so he’s bound to start slowing down one of these days. Meanwhile, though, he should rack up plenty of ribbies and hit for a high batting average, while providing modest home run numbers. Maggs is a great No. 3 outfielder and serviceable No. 2.

30. Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals: Here’s another bopper to draft if one of your first two outfielders is what used to be called a “Punch and Judy hitter.” Judy, meet Punch, AKA Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick came out of nowhere to put up huge numbers last season, and there is some risk that he may be right back in nowhere by the end of the season. His 2008 splits are solid, though, so he looks like a safe bet for another 30-homer campaign. The big question is whether he’ll bat .299 again, but even if he slips a dozen points or so, Ludwick is still a good No. 3 fantasy outfielder.

31. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels: Modest across the board fantasy production is what you’ll get from Hunter; the veteran doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he’ll contribute a little of everything without killing you in any fantasy category. He had something of a down season his first year with the Angels, so he may be available at a bargain price on draft day. Don’t expect a return to his 30-homer ways of a few seasons ago, but Hunter is a virtual lock for 20-to-25 bombs, an average around .280, 15-to-20 steals and about 80-to-90 RBI. Nice numbers for a No. 3 fantasy outfielder, huh?

32. Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies: Ibanez had to be happy to get out of Seattle and wave goodbye to spacious Safeco Field, where long fly balls go to die. The sweet-swinging slugger batted just .276 at home last season, versus .309 on the road. Back in 2007, Ibanez’s home/road split was .274/.306. Goodbye Seattle, hello Citizen’s Bank Park. Skip the cheesesteak and grab a bat…that right field wall has your name all over it. Ibanez is a bit long in the tooth – he turns 37 in June – but the cozy confines of the Philly yard should mean a nice boost to his already solid numbers. Ibanez has averaged 113 RBI over his past three seasons, and he’s a lifetime .286 hitter. Don’t worry about the lack of a DH; Ibanez played 153 games in left for the M’s last season. Consistent and productive, Ibanez is a very nice choice as a No. 3 outfielder.

33. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees: Can he do it again? Damon woke up the echoes of his younger days last season, and at least temporarily laid to rest any talk of his eminent demise as a Yankee regular. Of course, every time he uncorks a 27-hop throw to the plate that chatter starts right back up again, but such is the way in Yankee Land. Don’t draft him for defense – there are very few guys not named Molina that he can actually cut down trying to score – but Damon is a good source of cheap speed and modest power in the middle rounds of the draft.

34. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks: We’re still waiting for Young to become the five-category fantasy stud many thought he’d turn into last season. The tools are there — the kid has plus power and good speed, but every time he shows signs of living up to the hype, he falls victim to his arch enemy the Whiff Monster. Young fanned 165 times last year, and he has struck out 306 times over the past two seasons. All those misses drag his batting average inexorably downward, and if he’s on your fantasy roster, he’ll do the same to your team’s batting average numbers. Now then, the good news is that he had a great spring, and perhaps this is the year that the 25-year-old becomes all that he can be. Draft him as a No. 3 outfielder, but be prepared to bolster his average if need be.

35. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds: After a torrid five-game stint in May to begin his rookie season, Bruce was surrounded by more hype than the Queen City had seen since the days of the Big Red Machine. The youngster’s early hot streak quickly fizzled out, though, and by the All-Star break his line read a good-not great .270-6-21 in 44 games. He slumped a bit after the break, but that downturn was accompanied by a nice power surge: 15 homers in 250 second half at bats. Bruce is a talented hitter, but at just 22 years of age, he’s bound to endure his ups and downs. Grab him as your fourth outfielder if you can, and bench him when he hits a rough stretch of road.

36. Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers: Count Ethier among the people happy to see Manny Ramirez back in Dodger blue. The young outfielder thrived while he was preceding Man-Ram in the batting order last season, including the softball-esque .462 average Ethier racked up in 22 September games. Manny helps, but Ethier is a fine hitter in his own right, so feel free to draft him as your third or fourth outfielder a dozen rounds or so into your fantasy draft.

37. Milton Bradley, Chicago Cubs: Maybe you’re thinking of avoiding Bradley because think he has had more issues than National Geographic. Do so at your own risk: This is a guy who, when healthy and happy, has shown the ability to flat out rake – and carry entire fantasy teams in the process. He seems to be both healthy and happy in Chicago right now, and he has been absolutely crushing the ball this spring. Until there’s a blow-up or a blow-out (and yes, history tells us that such grievous events will almost certainly come) on the north side, savvy fantasy owners should hitch their wagon to Bradley and ride just as long as they can.

38. Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers: Cruz has shown slashes of brilliance at the big league level, but has gained a reputation as a “Quadruple-A” player who tears up the minors, but can’t get it done long term in the bigs. Maybe, just maybe, the .330-7-26 line he laid on the board in just 31 games last season is a turning point for Cruz. The 28-year-old has shown plus power and the ability to steal a few bases during his minor league tenure, and his hot spring brings hope that he’s finally in the bigs to stay. There’s huge upside here, but Cruz obviously carries a lot of risk. Sound like a fourth outfielder to you? Us too.

39. Pat Burrell, Tampa Bay Rays: Burrell left Philly in search of free-agent gold, but wound up a member of the Rays at a bargain-basement price. He figures to be the everyday DH in St. Petersburg, and his powerful bat gives the Rays some much-needed pop from the right side. Burrell is a virtual lock for 30 homers and close to 100 RBI, but his batting average figures to be closer to .250 than .275. If your league uses OBP or OPS, though, Burrell’s on-base skills make him a more palatable option. He is a streaky hitter; so keep track of his daily lines if you add him as a reserve outfielder. When he’s going well, get him in there.

40. Jayson Werth, Philadelphia Phillies: Werth still tears up left-handed pitching (16 homers in 155 at bats last season), but he also held his own against righties last year – winning a regular starting job in the process. His breakout season came at age 29, so there’s legitimate concern that his combination of power and speed could have been a mirage. We don’t think so – his split stats were good, and he may have simply taken advantage of an opportunity that was too long in coming. Be sure that Werth’s in your lineup against southpaws, but he’s more of a platoon starter when the Phils face a tough right-hander.

41. Xavier Nady, New York Yankees: Nady put up some decent numbers for the Yanks after arriving via trade: .268-12-40 in 59 games. His batting average with the Yanks was savaged by a brutal September, in which he batted just .223. Nady will be the Yanks’ regular right fielder in 2009, and should be a solid three-category contributor if he can stay healthy. That’s been a problem for Nady over the years, as the 148 games he played last season marked the first time in his seven-year career he had appeared in more than 125 contests.

42. Lastings Milledge, Washington Nationals: Opinions about Milledge are all over the board, and it seems that no one’s willing to take the middle ground. His detractors point to his history of attitude problems, his pedestrian numbers in his rookie season and the slow spring he has endured. Advocates, meanwhile, point to the nifty .299-7-29-11 line Milledge posted in just 221 at bats after the break last season, and claim that a run at a 30-30 season is in the offing. We’re not so sure about that, but Milledge is the Nats’ undisputed centre fielder, and he’ll get every chance to turn his great natural ability into a big league career. If nothing else, Milledge should pilfer close to 30 bases this season, and that alone makes him worth a late-round grab as your fourth or fifth fantasy outfielder.

43. Coco Crisp, Kansas City Royals: Crisp never delivered on his potential in Boston, but he may thrive in the low-stress environment of Kansas City as the everyday lead-off hitter. Recall that back when he was with the Tribe, Crisp put together two successive seasons of roughly 15 homers, 70 RBI, 15 steals and a batting average close to .300. He may not quite get back to that level in K.C., but there’s reason to believe he may swipe close to 20 bases for a team that figures to play a lot of small ball. Coco is a nice reserve outfielder that could fill in for an injured or slumping starter when the need is at hand.

44. Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles: If Jones did not get drafted in your league, run – do not walk – to the waiver wire and grab him now…or at least put your finger on the button. Jones had a torrid spring, including seven stolen bases, and he has made no secret of the fact that he intends to run a lot this year. Thirty stolen bases and 20-to-25 dingers is not an unreasonable forecast, though Jones is bound to suffer through some extended dry spells. Considering the hot start he’s off to, Jones is flying off waiver wires in a hurry, so it may pay off to close your eyes (just like he’s doing in his ESPN profile picture) and take the chance that he’s in for a breakout year.

45. Willy Taveras, Cincinnati Reds: Taveras is not only fast, he’s also rapid, swift, speedy and quick as a hiccup. Translation: He’s a one-trick pony…and that trick is stealing every base except first. Unfortunately, all those pilfers come at a cost of, well…just about everything else. Taveras has just seven homers and 107 RBI in 1,973 major league at bats, and his respectable .283 career average is offset by a less than awe-inspiring .331 lifetime OBP. He should manage to score at least a serviceable number of runs as the Reds’ lead-off hitter, but there’s no telling how long he’ll stay in that spot.

46. Jeremy Hermida, Florida Marlins: Hermida was a popular breakout candidate last season, but he couldn’t replicate the fine .296-18-63 line he put up in 2007. There is definitely talent here, though, and Hermida’s five dingers this spring and one so far in the regular season may be a harbinger of good things to come. Like all fantasy sleepers, grab Hermida late in your draft, and don’t base your team’s fortunes on him delivering the goods.

47. Denard Span, Minnesota Twins: Span was one of the waiver wire heroes of the 2008 campaign, but a crowded Minnesota outfield limits his fantasy potential for the upcoming season. He is a sound hitter with fair power and excellent speed, but he probably won’t have a full-time job unless one of his mates slumps or succumbs to injury. Span is worth drafting in larger leagues, but he’s probably best suited to a waiver-wire grab when the situation dictates.

48. Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks: Jackson’s lack of pop makes him persona non grata among fantasy owners seeking a first baseman (where he also qualifies in 2009). As an outfielder, though, Jackson’s modest speed and ability to hit for a strong average makes him an ideal choice as a roster filler late in your draft. He’s not likely to produce elite numbers in any category, but Jackson’s all-around contributions can be a blessing to an injury-plagued fantasy roster.

49. Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays: Last year, Lind showed flashes of the form that evokes dreams of .290-20-80 seasons among fantasy owners. Unfortunately, he faces a stiff challenge from fellow phenom Travis Snider this season, but fortunately, the Jays have solved that by making Lind the full-time DH. He should also see plenty of playing time in the OF too, so this very talented hitter is quite capable of 20-to-25 bombs and a .290-to-.300 average. Lind, and for that matter Snider, are great speculative picks as your fantasy draft reaches its latter rounds.

50. Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians – Another member of the 2008 Waiver Wire Hall of Fame, Choo batted a ridiculous .343-11-48 in just 58 games after the All-Star break, and carried many fantasy managers to championship glory. Can he do it again? Almost certainly not – and his tepid stickwork this spring bears that out – but he is still someone worth considering as roster filler for when one of your studs throws a rod. Know this, though: Choo’s career history indicates that he may have been way over his skis last season, so temper your expectations accordingly.

51. Fred Lewis, San Francisco Giants
52. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees
53. Carlos Gomez, Minnesota Twins
54. Travis Snider, Toronto Blue Jays
55. Daniel Murphy, New York Mets
56. Nick Swisher, New York Yankees (also qualifies at first base)
57. Mark DeRosa, Cleveland Indians: Is it just me or did DeRosa put up the quietest .285-21-87 line in history? Completely overshadowed in the Cubs’ lineup, DeRosa might play a more prominent role in Cleveland… unfortunately, there isn’t as much offensive talent on the Tribe, which means a reduction in power numbers may be in the cards. His ability to play second base and third base raises his value considerably and makes him a great depth addition even in shallow leagues. – H.G.
58. Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins
59. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals
60. Ian Stewart, Colorado Rockies (qualifies at third base)
61. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins
62. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
63. J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox
64. Ryan Spilborghs, Colorado Rockies
65. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
66. Garret Anderson, Atlanta Braves
67. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals
68. Randy Winn, San Francisco Giants
69. Rick Ankiel, St. Louis Cardinals
70. Luke Scott, Baltimore Orioles
71. Delmon Young, Minnesota Twins
72. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers
73. Michael Bourn, Houston Astros
74. Mike Cameron, Milwaukee Brewers
75. Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers (qualifies at third base and first base)
76. Jose Guillen, Kansas City Royals
77. Elijah Dukes, Washington Nationals
78. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
79. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
80. Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle Mariners
81. Cody Ross, Florida Marlins
82. Jordan Schafer, Atlanta Braves
83. Chris Dickerson, Cincinnati Reds
84. Josh Anderson, Detroit Tigers
85. David Murphy, Texas Rangers
86. Felix Pie, Baltimore Orioles
87. Ben Francisco, Cleveland Indians
88. Ryan Church, New York Mets
89. Chris Duncan, St. Louis Cardinals (also qualifies at first base)
90. Aaron Rowand, San Francisco Giants
91. Nyjer Morgan, Pittsburgh Pirates
92. Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle Mariners
93. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres
94. Kosuke Fukudome, Chicago Cubs
95. Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies
96. Brandon Moss, Pittsburgh Pirates
97. Gary Matthews Jr., Los Angeles Angels
98. Fernando Tatis, New York Mets
99. Josh Willingham, Washington Nationals
100. Ryan Freel, Baltimore Orioles

Cheat Sheet Archives

2009

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2009 Preseason

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2008

Prospects

2008 Preseason

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2007

Third base
Shortstop
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Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

Spikes Up, our exclusive baseball column, is pleased to unveil the fifth annual Spikes Up Top 40 Prospects List, once again beefed up from last year’s version.

This season, a dozen players are back from the 2008 rankings, while another 18 (just over half of last year’s list) have graduated to the major leagues. Five players slipped out of the rankings, a slight increase from the past couple of seasons.

1. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles: Wieters, who tied for 24th on our list last season, shot all the way to the top of the charts this year, and small wonder he did. A switch-hitting catcher with prodigious power and the ability to hit for an extremely high average? Uh, wow. Baltimore brought in Gregg Zaun as a placeholder and plans to start Wieters out in the minors for a couple of months, but that didn’t stop us from deciding he’ll still be the top rookie this year. Overhyped? Yeah, probably, especially when considering how high he’s getting drafted this year, but Wieters has future clean-up hitter written all over him.

2. David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays: Price, another veteran of our 2008 prospect list (he was tied for 20th last year), is also expected to have a fantasy presence this year. The former Vanderbilt star provided a glimpse of what he’s capable of with his late-season and playoff exploits for the Rays in 2008. Imagine 200+ innings of that once this kid is in his prime.

3. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves: A year ago, I preferred Jordan Schafer among the gaggle of Brave outfield prospects, but Heyward has soared past him to take his place as the best outfield prospect in all of baseball, never mind just in the Atlanta system. Ticketed for High-A this season, Heyward got tongues wagging as a non-roster invite to Spring Training this year. Just 19 and already oozing talent, this youngster has amazing upside as a left-handed power hitter.

4. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants: It’s not inconceivable that Bumgarner arrives in San Francisco before the end of 2009, but given the Giants’ abundance of young arms, I hope they don’t rush their 2007 first round pick. He looked great in his spring debut, further building the anticipation that he will help turn around San Francisco’s fortunes in the very near future. Having said that, Bumgarner will be best served by another full season in the minors. He’ll start the year at High-A.

5. Travis Snider, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Snider moved up from a share of seventh place in last year’s rankings based on his fantastic 2008 season including him being named an Eastern League All-Star and winning the Home Run Derby before finally becoming the youngest position player in the majors upon his August promotion. “The Franchise” as he was known in the minors, is a serious power threat, and he’s been pounding the ball this spring. And despite his poor contact rates, I’m expecting Snider to compete for the AL ROY award.

6. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers: Feliz soared from No. 28 on last year’s list. The one-time Brave prospect, sent to Texas in the Mark Teixeira deal, is now the jewel in a Ranger system that’s loaded with nice looking young arms (I know, I know, that seems weird to say). He soaked up the Spring Training experience with the Rangers, and is starting the season at Triple-A, although it won’t be long until he’s back in a Texas uniform to stay. This 20-year-old looked so good at Double-A last season, the true hallmark of a pitching prospect and the level that separates the contenders from the pretenders. Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2005, Feliz could legitimately help the Rangers in the second half, and if this team is hanging around in the AL West, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get the call. Ironically, despite the attention heaped on Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison and Elvis Andrus, Feliz could wind up being the steal of the Teixeira deal.

7. Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: Tied for seventh on last season’s list, Rasmus takes sole possession of that lucky digit this year. I’m extremely bullish on this kid’s long-term prospects, and while his immediate future looked clouded by: (a) Skip Schumaker, who isn’t looking so good at second base, and if he gets bumped back to the outfield, that means less at bats for Rasmus; and (b) Chris Duncan, who was outplaying the kid for the left field job this spring. Still, Rasmus earned a job, and will see plenty of action in all three outfield spots, especially in left.

8. Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers: Porcello moved up from a share of 24th place a year ago based on a solid pro debut in which he emerged as someone who looks one day capable of logging a lot of quality innings. In fact, he’s advanced enough that Detroit opted to hand him the fifth starter job in despite the fact he had yet to pitch above A-Ball. In reality, I believe Porcello would have been better served by another half-season in the minors. His emergence, however, is key to Detroit taking it to the next level, so keep an eye on this 20-year-old, a first round pick just two years ago.

9. Cameron Maybin, OF, Florida Marlins: Maybin was our ninth-rated prospect heading into the season, and he’s held his perch. Many expected his trip to the majors to be expedited once he was included in the trade to Florida as part of the booty the Marlins received for Miguel Cabrera. It didn’t work out that way, but Maybin had a solid season at Double-A, showing extra-base pop, patience and speed, before hitting extremely well in the majors as a late-season call up. This five-tool prospect is blessed with serious speed and power, and at the age of just 21, has a tremendously bright future in the majors – one that will start in earnest this season as Florida hands him centre field. Unfortunately, talk that Maybin might wind up as the lead-off hitter proved inaccurate, and so far he’s spent most of his time batting eighth, which will restrict his value. He will see time in the two-hole from time to time as well, thankfully.

10. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals: Moustakas, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2007 draft, made great strides last season, shooting all the way from No. 30 on our list to become a top 10 prospect this year. The 20 year-old, drafted out of high school in Chatsworth, California, is a great power-hitting prospect, and his big campaign at A-Ball has sent him to the top of KC’s prospect list. Moustakas is a solid contact hitter, but I would like to see him develop more patience, so at least another full season in the minors would be prudent. That will give also him time to adjust to third base, expected to be his long-term home since he shifted from shortstop midway through last season. Alex Gordon, you better start looking over your shoulder, dude.

11. Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado Rockies: Fowler’s been bubbling under the surface for a couple of years now, but he absolutely exploded in 2008 at Double-A, showing, speed, patience, power and batting average. It earned him a September callup, and while Fowler struggled to make contact in his first taste of the majors, it won’t be long until he’s a starter and fixture at Coors. In fact, Ryan Spilborghs is simply keeping centrefield warm for this five-tool prospect, who celebrated his 23rd birthday last month. Fowler, who will start the season as the fourth outfielder, has serious speed, and while making contact is a challenge for Fowler, we expect him to carve out enough action to be an impact rookie.

12. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: Despite undergoing some early-season adjustment issues, McCutchen showed nice development at the plate at Triple-A, riding a productive season to rise on our list from 17. He got a very long look this spring as the Pirates figured out what to do with him, but despite his late flourish, he was sent back to Triple-A. However, the 22-year-old won’t be long for the minors should be continue to improve at the plate, so expect to see him make his MLB debut well before mid-season.

13. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta Braves: Hanson rose from near obscurity more so than pretty well anyone on this list, and he’s been hyped like mad this offseason, yet deserves it all. Reports suggest he was the Braves’ top pitcher at camp, but considering all the moves Atlanta made to beef up its rotation this offseason, there was no room for Hanson right now, so he started the season at Triple-A. That could change in a few weeks if Tommy Glavine can’t take the hill when the Braves need a fifth starter for the first time. Could Hanson step in at that time? That might be premature, but this is a kid who made huge strides last season, simply dominating at High-A before performing solidly at Double-A (10.5 Ks per 9). We’re of the belief that even if he doesn’t get the call to Atlanta early, Hanson is someone who could surprise as a rookie sleeper at some point this season. It’s been a little while since Atlanta developed a pitching prospect that made an impact as a Brave, but Hanson is poised to break that drought very soon.

14. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland Athletics: Anderson, 21, pitched very well in High-A, but then was even better in Double-A – always an extremely promising sign for a pitching prospect. In fact, we expected him to get a September callup last year. Regardless, he made the team out of Spring Training and will make his first career start Friday. The southpaw is lauded for having command much beyond his years. He’s No. 24 on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 100 list, but we like him even more than that.

15. Trevor Cahill, RHP, Oakland Athletics: Cahill and Anderson are neck and neck here, and that’s quite appropriate since they will likely anchor the A’s rotation in the years to come. He’s another arm who impressed mightily this spring and, last season, after handling High-A very well, he too was even better after moving to Double-A. He just turned 21 last month, but with several Oakland starters hurting this spring, Cahill earned a job to start the season. Some experts consider this kid a top five prospect. I’m not as high on him as they are, but if he’s still rookie eligible at this time next year, he could very well make my top five.

16. Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays: The first overall pick in June was someone we started pimping right after the draft as a very special young player, and Tampa obviously felt the same, giving him a $6.15 million deal – the most the Rays have ever doled out for one of their draft picks. Beckham was reassigned to minor league camp and will start the season at Class-A, but reports about his fielding this spring were positive. He did okay in Rookie ball last year, and even got to play in a couple of games at Low-A. Still just 18, Beckham will play full-season ball this year, and it will be fun to watch how he adjusts to that.

17. Lars Anderson, 1B, Boston Red Sox: Anderson’s numbers weren’t eye popping in the least, but he impressed the experts with his play this spring before being reassigned to minor league camp (he’ll start the season at Double-A). He looks like a solid, productive hitter who could be a future middle of the order stick for the BoSox. The 21-year-old has certainly emerged as one of their best position player prospects after a season in which he did well at High-A and then was huge at Double-A, stepping up his power after the promotion.

18. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: Despite the fact that he wowed everyone this spring, the Giants have no plans to promote Posey to the majors at any point in 2009, and that’s a wise call. You would hate to see a promising offensive catcher like Posey’s development stunted because he was rushed. Besides, after giving him a club record $6.2 million signing bonus, the Giants obviously want to protect their investment and bring him along at a pace that is sensible. The Giants kept the Florida St. star around in Spring Training for a while and let him soak up as much as possible before they reassigned him to minor league camp (he’ll begin the season at High-A). Posey, who turned 22 last month, was very impressive in his 10-game pro debut last year between Rookie ball and Low-A, and the fifth overall pick from 2008 is part of an exciting young wave of talent coming up in the San Francisco system.

19. Chris Tillman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles: Tillman has future top-of-the-rotation pitcher written all over him. He was simply dominant at Double-A last year, fanning over 10 batters per nine innings, a performance that must have stung Mariner fans after Seattle dispatched this talented arm to Baltimore in the Erik Bedard deal. Sure, Seattle’s farm system is stacked with talent, but Tillman is one that might come back to haunt. Clearly, he’s ready for Triple-A where he’ll start the season, but it may not be long before he sneaks his way into the majors, making him a sleeper choice among rookies to watch. Tillman, who won’t be 21 until next week, can pound the strike zone with consistent 92 mph heat and has a hammer of a curveball that can be used as an out pitch.

20. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates are expected to push their top pick from last season, but even though he hit the cover off the ball this spring, he was reassigned to High-A Lynchburg fairly early. I actually thought Alvarez might start his pro career at Double-A when I pimped him during the NL Central preview Podcast. This former Vanderbilt star has serious power potential, and by 2011, he should be a fantasy stud. Part of a 2008 draft class that was top heavy with corner infield power bats out of college, Alvarez finally signed a four-year, $6.355 million major league deal after a long battle between his agent Scott Boras (shocker, eh?) and the Bucs. If underachieving Andy LaRoche doesn’t get his shit together pretty darn soon, the Alvarez era may start earlier than we expect.

21. Matt LaPorta, 1B, Cleveland Indians: LaPorta showed tremendous extra-base pop this spring, living up to the hype he garnered as a 2008 Futures Game participant and member of the USA Olympic Team. Formerly Milwaukee’s top prospect, LaPorta went sent to Cleveland in the C.C. Sabathia deal, and at the time, we expected him to be aggressively promoted by the Tribe, but that didn’t happen as he was selected for the Olympic squad. This 24-year-old, the seventh overall pick in 2007, is a serious masher, and it’s just a matter of time before he’s taking aim at the fences for the Tribe. He’ll start the season at Triple-A.

22. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks: After a solid pro debut in which he proved he was a winner and experienced a nice hike in K rate as the season progressed, Parker shot up from 31 on our list last season to pierce the top 25 this year. While some prefer Parker over Tillman as a long-term prospect, I ranked Tillman higher because he’s much closer to the majors, and the further a pitcher is out, the more things can potentially go wrong. Having said that, this 2007 first round pick out of an Indiana high school is universally lauded, with Baseball America ranking him as its 29th best prospect. Obviously the righty is Arizona’s top pitching prospect, and the idea that he, Brandon Webb and Max Scherzer will form the top of the D-Back rotation very soon must have Zona fans doing a jig of joy. Parker, who signed just before the deadline last year, looked good in his only appearance this spring, impressive for a 20-year-old kid. He’ll begin the season at High-A.

23. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals: Hosmer was probably the top high school hitter of his draft class last year when KC plucked him third overall. His kind of talent is extremely rare to find, so that’s why many expect Hosmer to move through the Royal system quickly. Unfortunately, he didn’t get to see much action last summer, recording a mere 11 at bats at Rookie ball (though, of course, even in this small sample size, he raked). Hosmer is gifted with awesome power, and the combination of him and Moustakas at the corners for KC will guarantee that the Royals will finally have an offense worth crowing about in the very near future. Hosmer will start the season at High-A, but prospect lovers should keep an eye on him.

24. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers: Smoak impressed the hell out of everyone this spring, and as a player we were quite excited about when he was drafted last summer, we expect him to move quickly. Some thing he’ll arrive in the majors by the end of the summer, although that’s a tad optimistic. Still, ownership loves Smoak, so you’ve got to figure he’ll definitely be in the mix in Texas by 2010. The former South Carolina star was reassigned to minor league camp last week. I expected him to start out at High-A after showing in a mere 14 games last season that he could hit Class-A pitching (three dingers, .304 BA), but the Rangers opted to move him all the way to Double-A, proving they are serious about having this kid on the fast track.

25. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles are stacked with future top-of-the-rotation type staters, and Matusz, the No. 4 overall pick and first pitcher taken in the 2008 draft, could have the most upside. He signed too late to make his pro debut last season, so the Orioles wisely won’t thrust him directly into the majors, instead opting to get him the appropriate amount of seasoning necessary so that when Matusz arrives, he’ll be there to stay. Scout.com ranked him as its 14th best prospect, a higher ranking than we’ve given him, but if he’s a good as a pro as he was in college (when he fanned 12.1 per nine innings with incredible command his final season), he’ll easily be that high and probably higher by this time next year. Matusz has started the season at High-A.

26. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins: Stanton is a key member of the next great wave of Marlin prospects. This 19-year-old, taken in the second round of 2007 of out a California high school, is an absolute behemoth at 6’5”, 210. The kid is all about pop, displaying off-the-charts power potential. Case in point: playing in full-season ball as an 18-year-old last year, Stanton smacked 39 homers in Class-A. Yes, I said 39. He also showed good on-base skills, but definitely needs work on his contact rates.

27. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers: The dude is MLB-ready now, defensively, and last season’s breakout offensively at Double-A suggests that part of his game is catching up quick. Escobar earned a September callup, and hit well in limited action, well enough to earn a spot on our Top 10 Rookies list. There’s a rumour he may be sent to San Diego if the Brewers make a play for Jake Peavy, but for now, Escobar is at Triple-A to start the season. But if Rickie Weeks struggles again, Milwaukee may summon the 22-year-old Escobar and put either him or J.J. Hardy at second base (with Escobar taking over at short in the latter scenario). Escobar’s emerging extra-base pop earned him recognition as Minor League Baseball’s No. 8 prospect.

28. Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays: After a season in which his Double-A numbers slipped, we’ve dropped Davis down the list from his share of fifth place last year. He was farmed out last month, and has started the season at Triple-A again, where, ironically, he pitched much better than he had at Double-A. Still just 23, Davis has averaged almost a strikeout per inning in his pro career, so there’s no reason to worry about the slight hiccup he had in 2008. Ranked No. 32 on Baseball America’s list, Davis is just about ready to pitch in the bigs, but he wasn’t expected to stick in Tampa this spring considered how stacked the Rays’ rotation is.

29. Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets: Martinez is a rarity, in that he was No. 25 on our Top Prospects list in 2007 before falling off last season as injuries continued to slow him down (he had just 245 at bats in 2007). He was slightly healthier in 2008, playing 90 games and accumulating 366 at bats, and his numbers improved across the board at Double-A. But because of all the injuries, and also the fact that he’s been promoted so aggressively (the dude was playing in Double-A at the age of 18), we haven’t really been able to get a clear idea of how good Martinez can be, because translating what a kid that young does at the level he’s playing at is difficult. However, scouting reports from the Dominican Republic this winter were extremely positive about Martinez, so if he can finally stay healthy enough to play even 100 games, the Mets’ top prospect could be ready to employ his picture perfect swing to take the next step in his career and provide a return to the team for the $1.4 million it gave him when he was signed out of the Dominican in 2005 (an extremely large sum for that kind of signing). The Mets were ecstatic that they didn’t have to part with Martinez this winter when they went shopping for a new bullpen. He’s started the season at Triple-A.

30. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: Part of a spectacular wave of college hitting talents soon to be making a name for themselves in the majors, Alonso was the seventh overall pick in the 2008 draft. He signed soon enough to see a small amount of action at High-A, showing a great batting eye and plenty of patience. He’s starting the season at that level again, but Cincy’s top prospect is expected to move fast, and could easily be at Triple-A before season’s end. We expect the U. of Miami product to emerge as a top run producer in the Show.

31. Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs: In a Cub system that lacks prospects close to the bigs, Vitters is one of the few bright spots. Taken third overall in 2007, Vitters must deal with the pressure that he is not Matt Wieters, who was taken two picks later. However, last season Vitters showed some nice extra-base pop at low-A. He struggled to make contact after a brief promotion to Class-A, and that’s probably the main reason he’ll start out there again this season, even though many thought he was ticketed for High-A.

32. Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers: Gamel has a power bat, but like a former Brewer third base prospect before him (Ryan Braun), he is limited defensively, so may not stick at the hot corner. The team’s fourth round pick in 2005, Gamel showed great pop last season at Double-A, averaged a hit per game in a brief stint at Triple-A, and even got into a couple of big league games. He’ll start the season at Triple-A, but we think he’ll see enough action this season to have ranked him among the top 40 third basemen for 2009. Some consider Gamel to the Brewers’ top prospect, but I prefer Escobar mainly because of the uncertainty of Gamel’s ultimate home on the diamond.

33. Brett Wallace, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals: Wallace will definitely be major league ready by 2010, but Troy Glaus’ injury opens the door for him to possibly make an impact this season, especially if Glaus winds up missing the whole year. In fact, we’re so bullish on Wallace’s prospects, that he made our top 10 rookie list even though he wasn’t drafted until last year (13th overall). Wallace hit extremely well at Class-A and then, after promotion all the way to Double-A, he showed even more extra-base pop. He’ll start out at Double-A again and should quickly establish himself as a leader on that team, but we don’t anticipate him staying there long. This 22-year-old is on the serious fast track. He’s an advanced left-handed bat that showed no problem hitting against lefties. In fact, at A-Ball, he scorched them to the tune of .370 on his way to making the AFL All-Prospect Team.

34. Derek Holland, LHP, Texas Rangers: Few prospects in the game made the kind of strides that Holland did last season. His breakout season made him look like an absolute steal as a 25th round pick back in 2006. Holland dominated Class-A and then was even more unhittable in five High-A starts. To cap the season, he averaged 10 Ks/9 in four starts at Double-A. Texas thinks enough of this 22-year-old, part of a great wave of young Ranger arms, that it’s put him at Triple-A, where he will team up with fellow uber prospect Neftali Feliz.

35. Austin Jackson, CF, New York Yankees: Jackson impressed many people during Spring Training with his great results, including a grand slam. An eighth round pick in 2005, Jackson has been quite durable during his minor league career, and he held his own in his first season at Double-A last year, showing decent extra-base pop while batting .285. The team’s top prospect will start the season at Triple-A, where he’ll look to establish himself as a potential option should the Yankees need outfield help.

36. Angel Villalona, 1B/3B, San Francisco Giants: I dropped Villalona from No. 22 on last season’s list, but he could easily be a top 10 prospect before the end of 2009. Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic, he showed nice extra-base pop while spending most of the season as a 17-year-old in full season ball. Power will definitely be Villalona’s calling card, and he’s been promoted to High-A this year, where as part of the Giants’ minor league resurgence, he’ll play on a prospect-stacked team that includes seven of the team’s top nine young stars (as per Baseball America rankings).

37. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers: Always known for his defense, Andrus’ offense showed signs of life at Double-A, as he enjoyed a productive 2008, batting .295 with decent on-base skills. The Rangers were impressed enough by this 20-year-old phenom’s progress that they shifted Michael Young over to third to open up shortstop for the kid. Andrus hasn’t disappointed in the early going, a pleasant surprise that keeps making that Teixeira trade (in which Andrus was acquired from Atlanta) look better and better for Texas. One of the most dynamic shortstops in the minors, Andrus is now wowing them in the Show.

38. Gordon Beckham, SS, Chicago White Sox: After competing for the second base job this spring, it’s pretty clear that Beckham will be ready to help the Sox darn soon. Last season’s eighth overall pick showed patience and pop while hitting .310 in his pro debut at Class-A. He’s started this season at Double-A and despite the fact he has played just 14 professional games, Beckham is expected to move quick. In fact, he even made our top rookie list as a long-shot candidate.

39. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians: While I suspect his guitar skills can’t possibly match that of his more famous namesake, this Carlos Santana can flat out rake, as he proved during his superb breakout campaign in 2008. He should arrive in the majors fairly soon, and his offensive upside is among the best in the game as far as backstops go. Traded from the Dodgers to Cleveland in a mid-season deal, Santana was tearing up High-A before the deal, and was even better afterward, stepping up his power. He then got a little late-season taste of Double-A, where he has started this season in impressive fashion, homering and driving in four runs. Santana, who turned 23 Wednesday, has a bright future as a run-producing catcher.

40. Michael Bowden, RHP, Boston Red Sox: This 2005 sandwich pick did a great job of limiting the long ball in Double-A, and while he was easier to hit in his 40 Triple-A innings, he still enjoyed superb control. Bowden made his big league debut in late-August and fared well in a spot start. He’s back at Triple-A to begin the campaign, part of a fantastic Pawtucket rotation that also features Daniel Bard and Clay Buchholz. A 6’3” righty, Bowden has great promise – possibly even top of the rotation stuff – but the BoSox are stacked on the mound right now, so he could be used as trade bait, and that may be his quickest way back to the majors at this point.

Graduating from last year’s top 35 prospect list: Jay Bruce (1), Clay Buchholz (3), Evan Longoria (4), Clayton Kershaw (T-5), Homer Bailey (10), Franklin Morales (T-12), Andy LaRoche (T-12), Jacoby Ellsbury (14), Joba Chamberlain (T-15), Chase Headley (T-15), Carlos Gonzalez (T-18), Ian Kennedy (T-20), Joey Votto (T-26), Johnny Cueto (T-26), Jeff Clement (32), Daric Barton (T-33), Chin-Lung Hu (T-33) and Brandon Wood (35).

Dropping off the list this season: Jordan Schafer (2), Chris Marrero (11), Desmond Jennings (T-18), Nick Adenhart (23) (who tragically, was killed on Wednesday) and Reid Brignac (29).

By Herija Green and Tim McLeod

The hot corner is another position that can thin out pretty darned quickly after the top tier players are off the board.

Note that Emilio Bonifacio has won the starting 3B job for the Marlins and is tentatively slotted to bat leadoff. However, he doesn’t qualify as a 3B heading into the season, but he has way more value as a 3B than as a 2B. If he were listed here, Bonifacio would be in the top 20, probably between Melvin Mora and Mark DeRosa.

Also, we’ve listed Michael Young here, but he technically only qualifies at shortstop to start the season. We did not list Young in shortstop rankings, but if he were there, he’d be a Top 10 shortstop.

We listed Pablo Sandoval here, although in 20-game leagues he didn’t qualify at any position as a major leaguer last season, and played mostly catcher in the minors. If you’re in a 10-game qualification league, you can use him at first base and catcher, as well as third base.

Brandon Inge is listed here, but played the majority of 2008 as a catcher. If he were on the catcher list, he’d rank No. 18.

Nomar Garciaparra is listed here even though he didn’t play 20 games at 3B last year; he would rank No. 34 on our list at SS.

Ian Stewart only qualifies at 3B, but is expected to see most of his action in the outfield this season, so we put him on that list. If he was on this list, he’d be No. 19.

Carlos Guillen spent most of his time at 3B last year, but also qualifies at first this season. However, we’ve listed him in our OF rankings as that’s where he’s expected to play. If he was on this he’d be No. 21.

1. David Wright, New York Mets: As scary a thought as it is, the durable Wright still hasn’t achieved his power prime. Could a 40-homer season be in his future over the next year or two? He didn’t get on base quite as often last season, and his stolen base total was more than cut in half, yet he still set a career high in runs. Wright’s strike zone judgment slipped ever so slightly, and he’s expected to slide down to the fifth spot in the batting order, a move that could affect his run and RBI totals. Still, all that’s missing for this dude to become one of the most popular figures in the game is a title.

2. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs: It appears Ramirez’s 38-homer outburst in ‘06 was a bit of an outlier, but his annual production continues to be rock solid, topping 100 RBI in four of the last five seasons and averaging 31.6 home runs during the same timeframe. On the downside, he has no speed to speak of and is hit or miss scoring runs (90-plus in three of his five seasons in the Windy City, 72 in each of the other two). He lacks the tantalizing upside of the man listed directly below him, but he’s the steadier option of the two.

3. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays: Perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding Longoria is whether or not I can make it through his blurb without making some lame ass joke about his name resembling a hot celebrity. On the field, Longoria boasts prodigious power (27 bombs in 448 ABs) and even displayed a savvy feel for the base paths (7-for-7 in steals). He struck out too much and fell into some prolonged slumps, but his potential is phenomenal. Unfortunately, other owners are in love with Longoria too and may reach for him too early in drafts – don’t make that mistake.

4. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: The usual No. 1 overall pick could miss six or more weeks to open the season following surgery on his hip (although recent reports suggest he could be back before May). Once he returns, he’ll have a bull’s eye on his back after his off-season steroid revelation, which figures to ratchet up the pressure. All that being said, Rodriguez is the most dominant offensive force in baseball during the regular season, posting a .302-35-103 line with 104 runs and 18 steals while missing 24 games in a “down” year in 2008. There are more concerns surrounding A-Roid (see what I did there?) than usual, but I’m guessing Madonna nurses him back to health and we get production worthy of using a low third- or fourth-round pick in standard leagues.

5. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves: There are two basic truths when it comes to Jones: 1. He’ll hit a ton, and 2. he’ll miss 40-to-50 games with an assortment of random maladies. The soon-to-be 37-year-old is no spring chicken to begin with, and his laundry list of injuries makes him a tough sell for an early-round selection. However, his production (.364-22-75 in 439 ABs last year) makes him impossible to ignore once the top names are gone at the hot corner. The best rule of thumb for Jones owners is to try to nab someone with third base eligibility for your utility spot, or failing that at least invest in a quality backup.

6. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels: Figgins is a bit of a one-trick pony, but that trick just happens to be incredible speed. Unfortunately, Figgins’ important numbers have been moving in the wrong direction for four consecutive seasons. His two biggest draws are steals (62 in ‘05, followed by 52, 41 and 34 last year) and runs (113 in ‘05, then 93, 81 and finally 72 in ‘08), while he does little in the power categories – home runs and RBI. That makes his batting average the wild card as he hit .330 in 2007 but only .276 a year ago. Health is also a concern – he missed 93 games combined in the past two years – and if you’re taking Figgins to be your third baseman, then make sure you’ve got guys capable of covering for the hit in power production you’ll be taking.

7. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners: OK, let’s get this out of the way, 2004 was a fluke! Beltre could play another 40 years and not post a .334-48-121 line so let’s omit that from our memories and take his four seasons in Seattle on their own merit. Well, on second thought, let’s go ahead and strike his ‘05 face plant from memory too. What’s left is three years of pretty solid production making mid-20s power, 80-to-90 RBI and 80 or so runs to be expected in 2009. There are certainly more exciting options out there, but those that miss out on the top talent at third base should be able to recoup good value in the later rounds with Beltre, who figures to get selected after several of the names listed below him.

8. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals: Zimmerman endured an injury-plagued 2008 campaign that cost him roughly two months and robbed him of his power for a full month beyond that – he returned on July 22 and hit his first post-injury dinger on August 27. That was a bitter pill to swallow for the many, including me, that were projecting a breakout year for the Nats’ third sacker. The good news is Zimmerman is still only 24 and should be available much later in drafts than he was last year. I’m not ready to get off the Zimmerman bandwagon just yet, and I think .290-30-115 isn’t out of reach. Look at it this way; it’ll only cost you a mid- or late-round pick to find out.

9. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies: Those that put their faith in Atkins last year were subjected to a steady diet (get it? Atkins + diet = zinger) of mediocrity for much of 2008, including some truly forgettable performances in August and September. His numbers have dropped precipitously since his breakout .329-29-120 season in ‘06, and the loss of Matt Holliday doesn’t figure to do that lineup any favours. It’s also worrisome to see how Atkins’ once disciplined approach (79 walks, 76 Ks in ‘06) has come apart at the seams (40 walks, 100 Ks in ‘08) in pursuit of the long ball. Still, playing in Coors Field makes Atkins a solid bounce back candidate and his multi-position eligibility (he also qualifies at first base) gives him added value.

10. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals: Once viewed as an uber prospect, Gordon endured his second consecutive disappointing season in 2008. However, try to remember that “the commish” is only 25, showed improved discipline at the plate (his .314 OBP from 2007 rose to .351 last season) and matched or exceeded his production in most categories despite playing in 17 fewer games. A lot of fantasy owners figure to be down on Gordon after getting burned by him two years in a row, which means he should be available fairly late in drafts.

11. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds: Encarnacion made “the leap” last year when it came to power, but unfortunately everything else treaded water or regressed. The fact that his 26 home runs (up from 16 in ‘07) accounted for only 68 RBI (down from 76 in ‘07) was a result of his terrible work with runners in scoring position. He was also incredibly streaky, hitting above .290 in three of the six months last year and under .240 in each of the other three. If he can make a few adjustments and improve with RISP he could be in line to really post some quality numbers, but if he continues to be as streaky as he was last season you need to make sure you own a solid backup and aren’t hesitant to bench Encarnacion.

12. Michael Young, Texas Rangers: The arrival of prospect Elvis Andrus may have forced Texas’ hand in moving Young to third base, but most fantasy owners will continue deploying Young at shortstop in 2009. His numbers dipped last year, specifically his average, which fell to .284 after five straight seasons of batting over .300, but they’re still more than respectable, particularly for a player with middle infield eligibility. Young has averaged 102 runs and 90 RBI per season since 2003 and remains a viable everyday fantasy shortstop.

13. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins: Anything you can do, Jorge Cantu…yeah, it’s a lame joke, but for whatever reason it’s one that I enjoy. The former D-Ray second baseman was plucked off the scrap heap by the Marlins and given new life at the corners. He hit .277 with 29 jacks and looked every bit the emerging stud fantasy owners thought he was following his breakthrough ‘05 campaign. At 27, Cantu should just be entering his prime and is a legitimate three-category contributor. He also qualifies at first base, which is where he will likely spend most of his time in 2009.

14. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres: Entering 2008, the thought was that Kooz’s future might be elsewhere on the diamond given his defensive shortcomings and the presence of top prospect Chase Headley. However, that threat is over for the time being as Kouzmanoff transformed himself into an above average fielder and Headley will open ‘09 in left field. Unfortunately, Kouzmanoff’s work at the plate was less inspiring. His averaged dipped 15 points and despite logging 140 more at bats, he added only five home runs and 10 RBI to his ‘07 numbers while striking out 45 more times – the result of putrid plate discipline, which left his ‘08 OBP at .299. He has a lot of things working against him – terrible hitter’s park, poor talent around him – but he should still post decent totals in home runs and RBI.

15. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants: There’s a lot to be excited about with Sandoval, who not only is expected to be the team’s everyday third baseman, but also the back-up catcher (at least to start the season). Given the dearth of talent behind the dish for fantasy purposes, Sandoval’s draft stock should skyrocket. He more than held his own at the plate last year as well, hitting at a .345 clip in 41 games. It’s unrealistic to expect anything close to that over a full season, but Sandoval was a .303 career hitter in the minors and went deep 20 times in the minors last year. Most will use him as a fantasy catcher, and even in shallow leagues his ability to provide depth all over the diamond (in 10-game leagues, he qualifies at first as well) should make him a valuable commodity.

16. Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers: At 35 years of age, Blake doesn’t offer much in the way of upside. However, he’s a solid contributor on an offense that should be much improved with a full year of Manny Ramirez, a healthy Rafael Furcal and the development of emerging star Matt Kemp. You can pretty safely pencil in Blake for 20 homers and 80 RBI, making him a solid Plan B for those that invest draft picks in the likes of Jones and A-Rod. The fact that Blake also qualifies at first base is gravy. Mmmm….gravy.

17. Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks: An all-or-nothing hitter, Reynolds went yard 28 times in ‘08, but struck out a shocking 204 times. He can’t be pigeonholed as a one-category guy since he also drove in 97 runs, scored 87 times and even swiped 11 bags, but his average is a potential albatross. Still, don’t overlook the fact that he hit .279 as a rookie and won’t turn 26 until August. He’s late-round fodder with some upside.

18. Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles: Many had already written Mora’s fantasy obituary before the veteran went on a monumental tear after the All-Star break, putting him back on the map. However, you can’t simply overlook that the 37-year-old looked effectively finished in the first half of 2008 and was below average for all of the two previous years. Take a conservative approach when deciding when (or if) to select him, as for two and a half of the last three years he has been a borderline fantasy option at best.

19. Mike Lowell, Boston Red Sox: Lowell didn’t reward fantasy owners that spent mid-round draft picks on him following his monstrous 2007 campaign, losing a whopping 50 points off his average and driving in 47 fewer runs. A hip injury was to blame for some of his struggles to be sure, but at 35 there’s no reason to dismiss it off hand as a one-time thing. The Sox have good depth, including Mark Kotsay at first base, which would allow them to move Kevin Youkilis over to third to keep Lowell fresh. Anything over a .280-20-75 line has to be considered optimistic – draft accordingly.

20. Joe Crede, Minnesota Twins: First, the good news — in Crede’s last full season he hit .283 with 30 home runs and 94 RBI. Now, the bad news — that was 2006 and Crede has missed much of the last two seasons with back ailments. Joining the Twins after spending his entire career with the ChiSox, Crede has to be viewed as nothing more than a high-risk, moderate-reward option worth drafting exclusively in deep mixed and AL-only leagues.

21. David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals: With Troy Glaus’ injury getting worse by the day it seems (it’s now unlikely he’ll return before the All-Star Game), Freese is the third baseman to own in St. Louis. He hit .306 with 26 homers and 91 RBI at Triple-A Memphis last season and with Joe Mather being farmed out, Freese has little competition for the job. He’s a must for NL-only leagues and should be on the radar in mixed leagues as well. Consider Freese a cheap source of power, but he does strike out plenty, so the BA could suffer. If you’re a Glaus owner, this is the ideal handcuff pickup for you.

22. Pedro Feliz, Philadelphia Phillies: Despite switching to a loaded Phillies lineup, Feliz saw his run of seasons with at least 20 homers snapped at four. Part of that was due to a decrease in playing time, which should continue in 2009 given the presence of Greg Dobbs. Feliz has never hit for average or had much speed, making him at best a late-round value for his power.

23. Josh Fields, Chicago White Sox: A popular sleeper entering last season, Fields lost out to Crede during Spring Training and was brutal the few at bats he got during the season. That was a major disappointment to fantasy owners after he clubbed 23 bombs in 100 games as a rookie in 2007. Don’t be too quick to write Fields off, though, as he’s just 26 and is finally being given a regular role with no strings attached. With the pressure off, he could be a great late-round source of pop. He’s definite flier material.

24. Scott Rolen, Toronto Blue Jays: Rolen has been nearly a non-factor for fantasy purposes in three of his last four seasons, including a disappointing .262-11-50 line in 2008. Injuries have left the former All-Star as little more than a shell of his previous self, making him a late-round option only for the true believers.

25. Russell Branyan, Seattle Mariners: Injuries limited the amount of action he saw with the Brewers last season, but his extra-base pop was impressive and he actually managed to hit his weight for the first time since 2005. Branyan beat out several competitors to win the job on the strong side of the first base platoon for the Mariners this season, but he qualifies at third base based on 2008.

Others to Consider

26. Brandon Inge, Detroit Tigers (who also qualifies at catcher)
27. Troy Glaus, St. Louis Cardinals: Glaus underwent shoulder surgery in March and isn’t expected to play until the All-Star game. When healthy, he boasts elite power, though he contributes little else. His injury ensures he shouldn’t be selected in most mixed leagues – check back with him in June if you’re in the market for a boost in home runs.
28. Andy LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
29. Bill Hall, Milwaukee Brewers
30. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics
31. Brandon Wood, Los Angeles Angels (also qualifies at shortstop)
32. Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox
33. Cody Ransom, New York Yankees (he didn’t actually qualify at any position as a major leaguer last season, last qualifying at SS in 2004, but spent most of his minor league season in 2008 at 3B)
34. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee Brewers
35. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
36. Geoff Blum, Houston Astros
37. Jack Hannahan, Oakland Athletics
38. Mat Gamel, Milwaukee Brewers
39. Nomar Garciaparra, Oakland Athletics (actually only qualifies at shortstop, but is expected to see the majority of time at 3B this season)
40. Ramon Vazquez, Pittsburgh Pirates (also qualifies at shortstop)

Cheat Sheet Archives

2009 Preseason

Catchers
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop

2008 Preseason

Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers
Outfielders

2007

Third basemen
Shortstops
Second basemen
First basemen
Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

By Tim McLeod and RotoRob

We’ve got a little bit of time this afternoon before March Madness starts again, so we’ve hammered out more of the 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit. We’re back with another cheat sheet, and this time it’s our Shortstop Rankings.

Remember the old Holy Trinity of shortstops (Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez)? Well, now there’s a new Holy Trinity, and it consists solely of shortstops playing for NL East teams. And then there’s everyone else.

Note that Michael Young, who would normally slide in between J.J. Hardy and Derek Jeter, is not included on this list as he’s expected to man the hot corner in Texas all season.

Garciaparra was omitted from this list as we expect him to mostly occupy the hot corner. Had he been on this list, he’d be No. 34.

1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins: One of the best, if not the best multi-dimensional player in the game, HanRam matched his career high in runs last season, thanks mostly to a huge improvement in his patience. His power was up slightly, but he didn’t get as many hits and his steals were down, so his overall value slipped ever so slightly from 2007. At 25, there’s room for improvement here, as scary as that sounds. Ramirez dealt with some shoulder tendinitis this spring, but is fine now, so draft him without worry.

2. Jose Reyes, New York Mets: Reyes remains very successful on the basepaths, and he enjoyed a bounce back season after sliding somewhat in 2008. However, his struggles in September mirrored the Mets’ woes down the stretch. Thankfully, any worry that his stolen base totals would plummet are gone now that talk of him being shifted out of the lead-off slot has ended. Reyes, who combines with David Wright to form probably the top left side of the infield in the game, is obviously a high first round pick, perhaps as high as No. 2 overall with A-Rod slipping out of the top round.

3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies: The normally super durable Rollins missed 25 games last season, so he wasn’t able to come close to duplicating his 2007 MVP effort, although he was a bit better in the second half. However, I like the fact that he cut his strikeout rate, and judging by his superb performance at the WBC, Rollins seems driven to enjoy a huge bounce back season in 2009.

4. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox: Okay, it’s true – Ramirez doesn’t actually qualify as a shortstop (although he came close with 16 games last season) heading into 2009; in fact, he only qualifies at second base. But he’ll be the SS for the ChiSox this year, so we opted to put him on this list instead of our second base rankings. Got a problem with that? Sue us. At any rate, Ramirez put up a tremendous rookie season once he shifted from super sub to everyday second baseman, showing power, decent speed and the ability to hit for average. I could see him swiping 20 bags this year, and there’s some definite upside power-wise here as well, but the fact is, there’s a large drop off at this position from the Big Three to Ramirez, and the Cuban’s strike zone judgment is a major concern. Can he build on his 2008 with that kind of batting eye? I definitely want to see some improvement in this area from this severely overhyped player.

5. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks: The abdominal strain he’s dealing with this spring scares me, because that’s a lingering type of injury, but reports suggest he’s getting better, so let’s not make more of it than necessary. Drew enjoyed a huge comeback season last year after the massive disappointment of 2007. He’s expected to bat third against righties, meaning Drew could easily see his RBI count soar to 85 or more, and I expect him to bash about 25 long balls this year. This is a shortstop on the rise.

6. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians: Peralta has been getting a bit more durable every season, cracking 600 at bats for the first time last year. Better yet, he’s also become a more dependable offensive player in each of the last two seasons. Note that Peralta hit .295 after the break, but sacrificed some of his pop for average. He’s a keeper in most leagues, and judging by the way he is hitting the ball this spring (leading the team in ribbies in the process), Peralta is poised to take another step forward. I could see him batting .280 or better while approaching 30 homers and 100 RBI as he enters his power prime years this season.

7. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers: Injuries made for a lost season for Furcal, a real shame because he was off to an incredible start. Despite some competition for his attentions, the Dodgers were able to bring him back. Furcal is likely the last shortstop in the second tier; after him there’s a bit of dropoff to the eight to 10 slots.

8. J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers: Hardy has shown good offensively progress the past couple of years and with him entering him prime power years, could 30 homers be possible? Hardy better continue the development, because with top prospect Alcides Escobar breathing down his back, any backsliding on the part of Hardy could be catastrophic for his long-term outlook. Hardy seems to have answered the call, hitting like a man possessed this spring. Then again, Alcides is also hitting the cover off the ball.

9. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees: Jeter missed a bit more time last season, a trend we can probably expect to continue as he gets on in years. Of greater concern is that his extra-base pop keeps sliding. Sure, Jeter didn’t strike out as often, but if he’s been reduced to a .300 hitter without much speed or pop, his overall fantasy outlook is going to take a hit. Normally the two-hole hitter in the Yankee lineup, Jeter will flip spots with lead-off man Johnny Damon to start the season. That should mean less RBI but more runs for The Captain.

10. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies: Tulowitzki is dealing with some back issues this spring, but it’s nothing like the injury problems he had last year that caused him to have a simply awful sophomore season. He was a bad keeper league choice last season, but don’t forget he did hit .327 after the break. Throw in the fact that he’s enjoying a nice spring, and you’ve got yourself a serious bounce back candidate here with plenty of upside.

11. Mike Aviles, 2B, Kansas City Royals: Aviles enjoyed a great rookie effort in 2008, batting .325 with pop. There’s not a ton of upside here, but he makes for a fine 12th round pick. Expected to bat second in the Royal lineup, Aviles has been scorching this spring. Throw in the fact that he also qualifies at second base for this season, and you’ve got a very nice fantasy option on your hands.

12. Miguel Tejada, Houston Astros: Tejada’s power has been in decline for several years now as his overall value continues to drop. He made the headlines all offseason for lying to the feds, but as we expected, he got off without jail time. That’s a shame, because Tejada looked great in orange during his B-More days. Instead, he gets off with a slap on the wrist: a $5,000 fine that he can pay with loose change from his couch, one year’s probation, and 100 hours of community service, in which he can talk to “normal” people about why it’s so dangerous to lie under oath, unless, of course, you’re a star athlete who can walk away from almost anything unscathed. At any rate, Tejada’s value is shrinking as fast as his balls were when he was juicing.

13. Orlando Cabrera, Oakland Athletics: Cabrera slipped somewhat last season, and at the age of 34, you have to wonder how much he’s capable of rebounding, especially now that he’s left one of the best hitting parks in the majors and landed in one of the worst ones. Having said that, O-Cab was better in the second half, batting almost .300, so he’s probably worth around a 16th round pick. While it’s fantasy irrelevant, it’s interesting to note how well Cabrera’s real life teams have done. Even if he’s in decline and rubs a lot of people the wrong way (just ask Grant Balfour how he feels about O-Cab), he’s a winner.

14. Khalil Greene, St. Louis Cardinals: Greene was hurt last season, and when he was in the lineup, he was never worse. His extra-base pop was unacceptably poor; he struck out almost a quarter of the time; he got on base just 26 per cent of the time. Okay, I’ll say something nice: Greene matched his career high with five swipes. But that’s not why you ever drafted the long time Padre. He’s gone from the West Coast now, tabbed by the Cardinals to replace the departed Cesar Izturis and Greene is a major sleeper as a result. Not only does he move from the worst hitter’s park in the majors to a slightly better one (although still not very good), but he’s healthy and is absolutely crushing the ball this spring. Just 29, Greene has a lot left to prove and I could very well see him topping out at .260-25-90 on the Cards this season.

15. Ryan Theriot, Chicago Cubs: Taking over as the full-time shortstop last season, Theriot set a career high in runs, enjoying a better year than he did in 2007. However, there’s not much, if any, upside here: Theriot struggled in the second half last year, and he’s expected to drop from the two-hole to the bottom of the order, a move that will make matching that run total extremely difficult. He’s hitting the cover off the ball this spring, and is too good an OBP man to bat eighth, so there’s hope he’ll be moved back up, but as of this moment, I’m not overly bullish on his prospects.

16. Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants: In his second try at the American League, Renteria’s pop slipped, he wasn’t overly productive, and his BA plummeted after his strong season in Atlanta in 2007. This is a trend I’ve been calling for a while – Renteria simply is not a junior circuit kind of guy. But how big a recovery can we expect now that he’s back in his beloved NL? Well, Renteria’s play at shortstop is getting worse as he gets a bit chunkier, and he’s moving from a good hitter’s park in Detroit to a middling one in San Francisco. He’s also not exactly a kid anymore (he’ll turn 34 shortly after the break). None of this bodes well for a massive recovery, but if his freaky NL vs. AL thing continues, I’m looking at a season of around .280, 10 homers and maybe 60 RBI – hardly a big time recovery.

17. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves: Escobar’s power slipped last season, but he was a bit more productive, as he spent most of the season in the two-hole as opposed to batting leadoff. His stolen base skills are atrocious, but I like the fact that he made great strides with his batting eye. That suggests to me that there’s upside here and was one of the reasons we recommended him as a mid-season pick up. Escobar proved us right with a nice August and a huge September before a hamstring injury caused him to miss time over the last couple of weeks of the season. He’s going to hit second again this year, and judging by his Spring Training performance, Escobar is poised to take a big step forward. I see his upside this year as .300 or better with 15 homers and 75 RBI.

18. Cristian Guzman, Washington Nationals: Guzman, one of the few Nat regular who stayed (somewhat) healthy last season, put up a career best 35 doubles, although his OBP dipped a bit. How did he hit .316 with such poor strike zone judgment? You can be sure he’ll still be there in the 12th round, about the time the shortstop ranks tend to thin out, but there’s no reason you can’t wait until the last two rounds to pick him up the Nats’ two-hole hitter.

19. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox: Lugo missed about half the season last year, losing his job to Jed Lowrie in the process. When he was healthy, Lugo certainly did better than he had in his first season in Boston. He’s a good OBP man, but that weird power spike he had with the Rays in 2006 was obviously a fluke. Unfortunately, injury has struck Lugo again, and he’ll miss the next three or four weeks while recovering from an operation to repair torn cartilage in his right knee. In the meantime, Lowrie will get the chance to start, and if he can build on his nice rookie campaign, Lugo may be in trouble.

20. Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle Mariners: Betancourt is limited by his crappy on-base skills – he has yet to top an OBP of .310 in four big league seasons. That’s why he spent most of last season batting ninth and is again near the bottom of the order, expected to bat eighth this year. However, perhaps the addition of Ronny Cedeno is lighting a fire underneath Betancourt, as he’s had a hit in every Spring Training game so far. Is this the season he approaches .300 and become a 12 to 15 homer threat?

21. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels: Aybar showed developing extra-base pop last year, a great sign considering he also did a much better job of making contact. He’s got some upside, but still may not have a job. At this point, Aybar will either be a top utility player, or the starting SS, a job he’s trying to win over Maicer Izturis. So far this spring, Aybar is smacking the ball around like he means it; unfortunately, so is Izturis. I like Aybar’s SB potential if he gets the job. I could see him pitching in with upwards of 20 swipes.

22. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays: Bartlett had a decent BA last year despite his impatient approach. He smacked a career high 25 doubles and has good speed, but I just don’t see a lot of upside here. He’s a great defender, but batting ninth in the Tampa Bay order, he is limited offensively.

23. Marco Scutaro, Toronto Blue Jays: Scutaro, who qualifies at second and third base as well, is the projected lead-off hitter for the Jays. Explain to me again why the Jays can’t make headway in the AL East? Having said that, Scutaro set career highs in games played and RBI last year, but he struck out a bit more often. John McDonald will also see plenty of time at short for the Jays, but for now, the job is Scutaro’s.

24. Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles: Izturis stayed somewhat healthier last year, bouncing back to an extent. But his extra-base pop is pathetic. In fact, the only real value Izturis supplies is that he’ll swipe you some bags. He was at the WBC for Team Venezuela and is now back with the Orioles, where he will provide an answer to the revolving door of shortstops B-More dealt with last season. However, while Izturis may help the fantasy value of Oriole pitchers, he won’t do much for his owners.

25. Emmanuel Burriss, SS, San Francisco Giants: He’s listed here because he spent most of his time manning short in his rookie season, but Burriss also qualifies at second base, where he is currently fighting for the starting job in San Francisco with Kevin Frandsen, a competition he appears to be winning, but one expected to go right down to the last possible moment. Burriss enjoyed an impressive rookie campaign, and with his great stolen base potential, I love his upside.

Other to Consider

26. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
27. Jed Lowrie, Boston Red Sox (also qualifies at 3B)
28. Alex Gonzalez, Cincinnati Reds
29. Nick Punto, Minnesota Twins (also qualifies at 2B)
30. David Eckstein, San Diego Padres (also qualifies at 2B)
31. Jerry Hairston, Cincinnati Reds (Hairston played more in the outfield than at shortstop last season, but he wouldn’t make our OF list and he qualifies here)
32. Adam Everett, Detroit Tigers
33. Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh Pirates
34. Luis Rodriguez, San Diego Padres
35. Maicer Izturis, Los Angeles Angels (also qualifies at 2B)

Cheat Sheet Archives

2009 Preseason

Catchers
First Base
Second Base

2008 Preseason

Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers
Outfielders

2007

Third basemen
Shortstops
Second basemen
First basemen
Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

By Tim McLeod and RotoRob

The 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit surges forward with the release of our cheat sheet for second base.

When drafting a second baseman, you need to understand that if you don’t land one of the, say, top half dozen options, the falloff is steep. So for those of you who are focused on tiering, you better grab your keystone corner man early.

Also, note that the Royals are experimenting with Mark Teahen at second base this spring. He’s not good enough to make our outfield rankings, yet doesn’t qualify at 2B, so he sort of falls through the cracks. Assuming he lands the 2B job, consider him a top 15 player at the position. And although he did list him below, Skip Schumaker falls into this category as well, so if he doesn’t win the second base job in St. Louis, don’t bother drafting him as an outfielder. Finally, with news that Alexei Ramirez was shifting to shortstop this season, we didn’t list him here. But if you want him as a second baseman, we’d rank him fifth on this list.

Also, we put Mark DeRosa on our 3B list, as that is where he’s expected to play most of 2009. However, he spent most of last season at the keystone corner, and if he were on this list, he’d be No. 9.

1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies: Despite the fact that it’s unclear how healthy he’ll be to start the season with his hip injury, Utley remains the main man at the keystone corner. He enjoyed a huge start to 2008, but note that his power waned severely after May, bringing down his overall percentages significantly by season’s end. He’s starting to pick things up offensively this spring and he is also playing more often as he steps up his rehab, but beware that Utley is likely to start sluggishly. That’s okay; always remember that it’s a marathon, not a sprint. Think big picture.

2. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers: After the huge step forward he took offensively in 2008, you can easily argue that Kinsler should be the first second baseman off the draft board this spring. There are some concerns, however: he was less patient last season than ever before; he still hasn’t proved he can play a full season, losing over 40 games last year because of a sports hernia; and while he appeared to be on track for a batting title in 2008, a second-half swoon cost him a chance at that hardware. But the bottom line here is that if you let Kinsler slip past the second round and fail to grab one of the other top-tier second basemen, you could easily find yourself scrambling on draft day.

3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox: Pedroia was less patient last season, but who cares? The dude added speed to his mix (20 steals) and earned himself the AL MVP. The Little Pony was knocked out of the WBC with an abdominal strain, but he’s back on track now.

4. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles: By staying healthy the past couple of seasons, Roberts has been able to put up his two best stolen base seasons yet, swiping a combined 90 since 2007. While his success rate on the paths dipped a bit last season, it was still at his normal career levels, and at the age of 31, he doesn’t appear to be slowing down. Better yet, Roberts’ extra-base pop returned after a couple of down (read: non-juicing) seasons. This combo (and the fact that he plays a tough to fill position) makes him a keeper even in a league that protects as few as eight players. Roberts helped save the US team at the WBC by taking over when Pedroia got hurt.

5. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds: Phillips couldn’t duplicate his breakout 2007, and his stolen base success rate was particularly weakened (he swiped just 23 of 33 after stealing 32 of 40 the previous season). We’re worried about Phillips this season, so much so that he’s on our Top 10 Flops list. We expect him to remain a productive second baseman, but if you’re drafting Phillips based on his 2007, you’re in for a big disappointment.

6. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins: One of the top sluggers at the position, Uggla added a few swipes last season as well, but this has never been a particular strength for him. We were more bullish on the fact that his BA bounced back and his patience continued to improve to the point where he’s become an asset in OBP leagues. Those extra walks helps offset Uggla’s increasing strikeout rate. Because of his arbitration win, Uggla’s salary has reached the point where he’ll need to be jettisoned off the bargain baseman Marlins soon, and that’s something to monitor as the season progresses, and certainly come the 2009 offseason.

7. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees: Cano experienced a major collapse last season, struggling through the worst season of his career and soaring to the top of the flops list. His extra-base pop severely disintegrated and his OBP was borderline unacceptable. On the plus side, Cano cut his strikeout rate, but unfortunately, his already poor walk rate slipped as well. By June, we were already lamenting that he couldn’t pull himself out of the doldrums, and the fact that he’s been somewhat limited by a shoulder woe this spring doesn’t exactly bode well for a major recovery. Still, with so many down on Cano, it makes him a sleeper in a strange sort of way.

8. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners: In a truly ugly season in Em City, the development of Lopez, who enjoyed his finest season, was a bright spot. At his age, there’s definitely room for growth, and we could see him reaching and eclipsing the 20-homer mark in the coming seasons. Lopez showed a bit more patience, but he still has a long way to go in this department; fortunately, he did an excellent job in improving his strikeout rate. It all add up to about 14th round value for Lopez, the second baseman for Venezuela at the WBC and a player we could see taking a big leap forward this year.

9. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves: Johnson has been fairly durable if inconsistent since taking over as the Brave second baseman in 2007. He slipped a bit last season, and it would have been much worse had he not got crazy in September, batting almost .400. Johnson appeared headed for a career best in homers back in June, but he managed just four long balls after the break. He’s in his power prime, so a rebound is possible (perhaps even as many as 20 homers is doable), and the fact that he’s hitting well this spring bodes well for a better season from Johnson.

10. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels: Kendrick got a bit more action last year, but this seriously injury-prone dude has yet to even come close to 400 at bats in a season. And until he proves he can stay healthy, we can only speculate about his upside. Kendrick’s having a great spring, once again teasing us with his talent, but he’s a scary player to draft because of the constant health concerns.

11. Felipe Lopez, Arizona Diamondbacks: After turning in a solid season (at least after he wound up in St. Louis, where he was fantastic), Lopez has a chance to be a serious sleeper this year. While we’d like to see more patience – remember, Lopez walked 81 times as recently as 2006 — Arizona could get a steal here for one year and $3.5 million. It’s not that long ago (2005) that Lopez looked like a serious up and comer with the Reds, and he’s still just 28, has moved to a good hitter’s park and will be hitting at the top of the batting order. Can you say rebound candidate?

12. Orlando Hudson, Los Angeles Dodgers: The O-Dog has had trouble staying healthy the last couple of seasons, and that was a shame in 2008, as he looked to be putting up a big year despite a less patient approach at the plate. He hit a career-best .305 and his pop bounced back, but Arizona said “seeya,” so the Dodgers swooped in to grab Hudson to replace the retiring Jeff Kent. Hudson should provide a boost to the Dodger offense, and will certainly make them a better team defensively. Ironically, Hudson settled for less with LA than what ‘Zona paid for Lopez. Assuming he can stay healthy, look for a big year from Hudson, expected to bat second in what should be a much better Dodger lineup this season.

13. Kazuo Matsui, Houston Astros: Matsui always seems to have problems staying healthy, and last year’s ass issues were particularly a sore point, but he remains a solid source of steals (although he was much better in this regard in 2007). Matsui’s strike zone judgment has progressed impressively over the past few years, making it quite reasonable to think he’ll hit .300 if this trend continues. Having said that, he’s struggling badly this spring, but then again, so is every Astro hitter.

14. Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers: Polanco always seems to miss some time, although he’s been a bit better in that regard the last couple of seasons. He failed to put up the huge run totals expected in Detroit’s offense last season, but that’s not a big surprise considering the Tigers didn’t come close to everyone’s predictions. Polanco was a bit less patient last season, so he couldn’t come close to matching his career year – especially in OBP – of 2007. Still, he remains a productive hitter who is so tough to strike out.

15. Mark Ellis, Oakland Athletics: Shoulder woes that ultimately led to off-season surgery really hurt Ellis’ counting stats last season and also sapped him of his gap power. While he was harder to strike out last year, the fact that he’s still recovering from the surgery (he just started playing in the field this week) is a concern. Target Ellis with a very late-round pick (say, 23rd round).

16. Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays: Hill signed a long-term extension early in the season, but then suffered a concussion, costing him most of the campaign and leaving his fantasy owners with their own headaches to deal with. To make matters worse, when Hill was healthy, he wasn’t nearly as productive as his breakout 2007 season. In fact, he never looked worse as a major leaguer than he did last year. On the plus side, he’s young enough to bounce back, and being in his power prime this season, Hill could surprise. That makes him someone to target as a late-round pick. A healthy Hill batting in the two-hole all season could definitely help Toronto bounce back offensively in 2009.

17. Alexi Casilla, Minnesota Twins: Casilla took over as the starting second baseman for the Twinkies last season and showed developing gap power, enjoying a productive season. He was much harder to strike out, and after his promotion from Triple-A, earned our recommendation as a solid waiver wire choice. A strong defensive player, Casilla makes a nice under-the-radar pick given how much room he has to grow. He had a rough start this spring, but has been hitting up a storm lately and even swiping a few bases, so we expect his ADP to gain momentum shortly.

18. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers: The injury-prone Weeks actually managed to reach 475 at bats for the first time last season, while improving his contact rates. That’s the good news for this perennially underperforming player, as his stolen base efficiency slipped and his percentages dropped. Given his defensive deficiencies, there are questions whether he’ll remain at second base for the long haul, but he’s stepped up offensively after a sluggish start to Spring Training, and while hitting atop a potent Brewer lineup, he has as much upside as almost anyone on this list.

19. Clint Barmes, 2B, Colorado Rockies: Barmes, who also qualifies at shortstop, more than simply resurrected his flailing career last season; he put up a career year. He showed more pop than ever before and turned his BA back into a positive after the nightmare that was 2007. Hell, he even rediscovered some patience, although there’s still plenty of room for growth in Barmes’ game there. There’s not much upside here, but for now, Barmes has held off the considerable competition and looks poised to be the Rox opening day starter at the keystone corner. He’ll share the job to an extent with Jeff Baker, although many would prefer to see Ian Stewart win the job outright, pushing Barmes back to a utility role, and that’s something his owners will need to monitor as the season progresses.

20. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Rays: Shifted from third to second base last season, Iwamura hit more like a middle infielder, losing some of his extra-base pop, which is never a good sign for a flyball hitter like him. Another less than promising sign for Iwamura, currently playing at the WBC for Japan, is that he was less patient last season. At the risk of incurring noted NPB junkie Tim’s wrath, I have to say that there’s little if any upside here.

21. Luis Castillo, New York Mets: Injuries struck Castillo again, and while he walked more often than ever before, he struck out more often than normal, hit almost 50 points below his career average, lost what tiny bit of extra-base pop he had and endured his worst season in over a decade. To say 2008 was a disappointment is obviously an understatement. Now the good news: there’s talk Castillo will hit leadoff this season, and while knee injuries have ravaged him in recent years, that fat contract (that the Mets tried to deal this offseason) guarantees that he’ll get plenty of rope as the starter. This, more than anything, makes him a sleeper, especially since Castillo is still a very good basestealer.

22. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians: Cabrera, who also qualifies at shortstop this season, didn’t show as much extra-base pop last year, but that’s a situation he seems to be rectifying this spring, with five of his nine hits going for extra-bases. We like the fact that he made some strides with his strike zone judgment – especially in the second half, when he was a completely different player, batting .320 after the break — and making us look like geniuses (again) for recommending him after his recall from the minors. He’s come to camp 12 pounds lighter and looking better, and while he’s ticketed for a spot near the bottom of the Indian batting order, Cabrera has enough upside to be an intriguing option.

23. Skip Schumaker, St. Louis Cardinals: Schumaker earned a full time gig in the Cardinal outfield last year, and while his extra-base pop was unacceptable for a flyhawk, at least he walked more often and made better contact. Still, his overall value was minimal and we have our doubts about his ability to repeat his season. Shifted to second base this spring, Schumaker is beginning to look more comfortable at the position, but it’s important to note that heading into the season, he only qualifies as an outfielder (something to consider should he fail to win the 2B job).

24. Kevin Frandsen, San Francisco Giants: After missing essentially the entire 2008 campaign because of surgery to repair a torn Achilles’ tendon, Frandsen is competing for the starting job with Emmanuel Burriss in a battle that looks like it’s headed down to the wire. Frandsen showed some promise in 2007, but there’s not a ton of upside here and he got off to a poor start this spring (in fairness, however, he is hitting better lately and even showing some speed).

25. Mike Fontenot, Chicago Cubs: Fontenot enjoyed a productive season off the Cub bench last season, opening eyes with his hitting and ability to get on base. So when a crowded middle infield situation eased this season, it provided him his chance as a starter, and he’ll probably also see some time backing up third base. Fontenot has had some issues defensively this spring (although he was stellar in the field last season), and is not a good long-term option, but for now, he is the keystone corner man to own for the Cubs.

Others to Consider

26. Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates
27. Chris Getz, Chicago White Sox
28. Ronnie Belliard, Washington Nationals (also qualifies at first base and third base)
29. Aaron Miles, Chicago Cubs (also qualifies at shortstop)
30. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City Royals
31. Edgar Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
32. Jayson Nix, Chicago White Sox
33. Anderson Hernandez, Washington Nationals

Cheat Sheet Archives

2009 Preseason

Catchers
First Base

2008 Preseason

Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers
Outfielders

2007

Third basemen
Shortstops
Second basemen
First basemen
Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

By Tim McLeod and RotoRob

And we’re back with more of the 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit, today with the next set of cheat sheets, this one ranking the top first basemen in the game. Tim has been spouting all offseason that first base isn’t the position of abundance this year that it once was, so don’t wait too long to pluck someone at this position or else you may get stuck with a very undependable option like Todd Helton.

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: Despite ongoing concerns over his elbow that did ultimately cause him to miss some time, Pujols reached 100 runs for the seventh time in eight years and put up perhaps his finest overall season. So much for those pre-season worries that he wouldn’t make it through the year. In the end, Pujols put together an MVP season – although some question whether he deserved the hardware. In the end, Phat Albert did need surgery in the offseason, and while he’s fully healthy now, he wisely opted to skip the WBC to focus on the regular season (although insurance issues made his decision simple).

2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: Huge things were expected from this durable slugger when he joined the powerful Tigers last offseason. He was to be the jewel of a lineup guaranteed to score over 1,000 runs and laugh its way to a World Series title. Well, none of that transpired, and many were disappointed in Cabrera’s season. But take a look at his second half numbers and remember that he still set career highs in homers and ribbies during an “off” year. You better not sleep on this stud, who, at 25, is still a couple of years from his power prime. Think he’ll even make it to you at eighth overall? Think again. Looking for serious productivity to anchor your fantasy team? Cabrera is your man.

3. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros: This on-base machine rebounded from the worst season of his career in 2007, adding some speed to the mix to put together a near-MVP type season in 2008. This 33-year-old slugger should have a couple of seasons left near the top of this list.

4. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees: Teixeira’s power slipped a bit in Atlanta, and when the Braves fell out of the race, they dealt him to the Halos. Once in Anaheim, Teixeira went berserk, and wound up recording a career best in OBP. That lured the Yankees into giving him $180 million to help beef up the offense as part of their major off-season spending spree.

5. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies: Howard has been slipping offensively since his MVP 2006 season, but he remained healthy last year and set career highs in a couple categories. Despite an OPS that’s been slipping tremendous the past couple of seasons, how do you overlook what an incredible run producer Howard is, not to mention the fact he led the majors in dingers last year? Once offensive studs like Grady Sizemore and Cabrera are gone, RyHo makes an excellent first round pick to anchor your offense.

6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: Morneau has done a great job of making better contact in recent seasons, something that allowed him to rack up a second .300 season last year. Although his experience at the WBC with Team Canada was a major disappointment, you can’t argue that Morneau is not only one of the AL’s top sluggers, but he’s become a much better gloveman at first as well. Target him with a second round pick.

7. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres: Gonzalez’s development as a slugger has been truly impressive, and given that he hasn’t even yet hit his power prime, I wonder if there’s a 45-homer season in that bat of his. His superb performance for Mexico at the WBC suggests another big year is on the way.

8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers: Sure, his power dipped last season, but that was mostly due an even worse start than he traditional has. Fielder’s second half numbers and his upside (not to mention slimmed down body) suggests to me he’ll bounce back this season. A key component of Milwaukee’s youth movement, the Brewer cleanup hitter has more dingers over the past two years than anyone in baseball not named Alex Rodriguez or Ryan Howard.

9. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: Youkilis has been fairly durable the past few seasons, and has developed into a top run producer while maintaining his superior on-base skills. Strangely, however, the Greek God of Walks has experienced a decline in his walk rate three years running. But don’t fret; as Youkilis has become more aggressive, he’s also become a better ballplayer, to the point where he’s now the clean-up hitter for USA’s WBC entry. A slam-dunk keeper, Youkilis’s multi-position eligibility only makes him more valuable.

10. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: Votto enjoyed an excellent rookie season, building on his prospect status by showing improved patience at the plate. The Canadian kid could even develop into a decent basestealer, but this is an area of his game that needs work. Votto was awesome at the WBC, perhaps portending a big season, so don’t let him slide past the sixth round.

11. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets: Delgado silenced his critics, bouncing back from an offseason to prove he was still a patient hitter and top run producer. Possibly moving to the cleanup spot for the Mets this season, Delgado should cement his status as one of the top left-handed power bats of his time very soon, as he sits just 31 dingers shy of 500 for his career.

12. Chris Davis, Texas Rangers: Davis turned in a fine rookie effort, emerging as a power threat and showing potential as a serious run producer. Looking for a breakthrough candidate on this list besides Votto? Here’s your man.

13. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs: Lee has remained relatively healthy the past couple of seasons, but his 2005 power has never returned. He remains a decent run producer batting in the middle of a potent Cub lineup, but with his fading strike zone judgment, it’s obvious Lee’s best days are behind him. At this point, considering he’s no longer even a 30-home run man, you can’t afford to keep Lee at too high a cost.

14. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles: Huff made better contact last season, enjoying his finest season since 2003. His ability to dominate righties – he hit .321 with 26 homers in just over 400 at bats against them – made Huff a waiver wire stud last season, but don’t expect him to be on anyone’s wire this year. After mostly DHing in 2008 (although he spent enough time in the field to qualify at both third base and first base), Huff will take over first base in B-More for the departed Kevin Millar.

15. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers: Loney took over as the everyday first baseman for the Dodgers last year and showed gap power and run-producing potential. But he wasn’t as patient as normal and it’s become clear he’s not a power hitter. Still, Loney can help you at a tough position, so feel free to use a 12th round pick on him.

16. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays: Coming to Tampa Bay was the best thing that ever happened to Pena as, given a regular gig, he became extremely productive. It was no surprise he couldn’t duplicate his huge 2007, but even when he was slumping last season, Pena was still helping his owners with the long ball. Don’t expect any batting titles here, but if you need pop and a man who can get on base, Pena will be a huge help.

17. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox: Injuries killed Konerko’s value in 2008, although the fact that he walked more often and struck out less often suggests that his batting average will bounce back to normal career levels. He’s certainly looking healthier this spring, for what it’s worth.

18. Jason Giambi, Oakland Athletics: Giambi stayed healthier than he had in quite a while, responding with a much better year than 2007’s fiasco. His patience even came back a smidgeon. While we thought he might wind up in Toronto, Giambi is back to the scene of his greatest triumphs – Oakland – to help revitalize a moribund A’s attack. Don’t expect vintage Giambi, but it’s possible he could continue his recovery to an extent in the Bay area.

19. Mike Jacobs, Kansas City Royals: Jacobs enjoyed a strong season in Florida, although his strike zone judgment continues to deteriorate. Traded to KC this offseason, Jacobs faces more competition for the job, so I’m concerned about his long-term prospects. While he’s become a better power hitter, he’s sacrificed his batting average along the way, so as he transitions out of his power prime in a couple of years, Jacobs’ fall from grace could be swift and sharp.

20. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates: LaRoche’s power bounced back last season, although his average continues to dip ever so slightly. He got hurt in July and when he returned, we recommended him as a nice late-season power boost. We were bang on there, as LaRoche finished like a man possessed, batting .321 with seven homers and 26 RBI in September. Always a great second-half performer, LaRoche is a nice later-round choice if you need a corner infielder with some pop.

21. Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals: Butler failed to build on a somewhat productive rookie season, slipping in both average and power. Yes, he’s still just 22, so time is on his side, but he has a lot left to prove before he’s a slam dunk in the KC batting order. While Butler will earn time at both DH and first base, as mentioned, the Royals have plenty of players vying for those at bats, so this kid isn’t guaranteed anything if he doesn’t back up his solid second half (.305 BA, .476 SLG) with a nice start.

22. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies: Helton struggled through 2008, fanning more often than normal before finally succumbing to back surgery. He’ll need plenty of rest, and is only expected to play maybe 100 games this year, severely limiting his potential value. Helton is getting on in years, and while his performance so far this spring is promising, he’s got a long road back to fantasy relevance.

23. Travis Ishikawa, San Francisco Giants: Ishikawa was productive in his limited PT last season, and is riding a big spring to the first base job in San Francisco. Now that the Ivan Rodriguez to San Francisco to play first base rumour can be laid to rest, it looks like the job is his.

24. Casey Kotchman, Atlanta Braves: Kotchman finally stayed healthy last season, but where did his power go? Things got especially bleak after a deadline deal sent him to the Braves. It’s still a bit early to give up on this once-can’t miss prospect, but the clock sure is ticking for Kotchman.

25. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels: Morales showed almost no extra-base pop in his limited opportunities last season, but he’s going to get a chance to start now that Teixeira bolted for the huge Yankee bucks. No pressure, dude. We’ve had very little reason to pay attention to Morales since he was a prospect on our list in 2006, but so far this spring, he’s smacking the ball around like he means it.

Others to Consider

26. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays
27. Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins
28. Ryan Garko, Cleveland Indians
29. Nick Johnson, Washington Nationals
30. Chris Shelton, Seattle Mariners

Cheat Sheet Archives

2009 Preseason

Catchers

2008 Preseason

Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers
Outfielders

2007

Third basemen
Shortstops
Second basemen
First basemen
Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

BY TIM McLEOD AND ROTOROB

And we’re off! With the release of our catcher rankings, the 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit is officially launched. Over the next few weeks, we’ll be issuing a complete set of cheat sheets with analysis, essays, columns and our destined-to-be-classic Top 10 Lists That Fantasy Owners Always Wanted But Were Afraid to Ask For. As a special treat, we’ll also be unveiling the most comprehensive keeper list ever compiled. Seriously.

By the way, Brandon Inge is not listed here, but rather is on our 3B list. If he were listed here, he’d be No. 18.

2009 Catcher Rankings

1. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves: McCann’s tremendous bounce back season in 2008 lands him in the top spot among backstops. He’s a real workhorse who hits for power and average and even added a little bit of speed to the mix last season. Oh ya, and he just turned 25 last month, meaning there’s plenty of upside. Expect to use a fifth round pick to land McCann, currently representing U.S.A. at the WBC.

2. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers: Martin is another young, multi-talented catcher who sees a lot of action behind the plate. And I mean a lot. Despite making 11 appearances at third base, this Canadian kid still caught 149 games. I’m starting to wonder if the workload is getting to him (he slugged 100 points less after the break), and how big a concern this should be heading into 2009. Martin has upside, but he was unable to build on his huge sophomore campaign, although the major increase in patience bodes well for his ability to develop into a .300 hitter.

3. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins: Mauer, hardly the old man on the list at age 25, bounced back from an injury-plagued down season in 2007 to set career highs in runs and RBI. He did an amazing job of cutting his strikeouts, while his plate discipline went to a completely different stratosphere. As a catcher who not only helped lead one of the top offenses in the AL and who finished fourth in the AL MVP race, Mauer is a major fantasy stud, capable of vaulting back to the top of this list by season’s end.

4. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs: Rarely do you see a hyped rookie catcher, once handed the keys to the kingdom, who actually makes a seamless transition. Such was Soto, who combined power, patience and a fine batting average into a season worthy of earning kudos as the 2008 RotoRob Fantasy Rookie of the Year. He’s plying his trade for Puerto Rico at the WBC and then will look to build on his big freshman effort with the Cubs.

5. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians: How can a guy who missed half the season, was extremely unproductive, saw his power completely evaporate, experienced a decline in his strike zone judgment for the second straight season and have the dubious distinction of being our 2008 RotoRob Fantasy Flop of the Year make our top five at catcher? Simple. V-Mart was coming off a 2007 season in which he launched a career-best 25 homers and had his customary .300+ BA, so we’re willing to give him a mulligan for 2008. He’s healthy and committed to returning to the elite (as evidenced by his turning down a chance to play for Venezuela at the WBC), so don’t let Martinez fall too far off your radar on draft day. He’s an excellent candidate to win another RotoRob Award in 2009 as the Comeback Player of the Year.

6. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles Angels: Despite an increasing strikeout rate, Napoli emerged as a serious offensive threat, spanking 20 dingers as a part-time backstop. Two years ago, he was nothing more than an injury waiver wire pickup, but now Napoli is a legitimate fantasy backstop. Do note that he’s dealing with a wonky right shoulder this spring after off-season surgery, so that’s going to slow him down, at least defensively, for now. But because of his potent bat, look for him to see time at DH on occasion when he’s not behind the dish.

7. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates: Doumit’s power keeps developing and as he enters his prime, it’s seems reasonable to think he’s capable of clouting 20 to 25 dingers this year, assuming he remains healthy – something that hasn’t always been easy for him. Still, Doumit took a huge step forward in 2008, doing a fantastic job of making better contact. Small wonder he made our Wire Troll NL All-Wire Team. The Pirates are convinced he’s for real, committing to a long-term deal with Doumit; you should consider doing the same for your team in a keeper league.

8. Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies: Yet another member of our coveted Wire Troll NL All-Wire Team, Iannetta, like Napoli, showed tremendous power in a limited role. He broke through with an extremely productive season, showing fantastic on-base skills as well as power. In fact, among NL backstops who had at least 300 at bats, Iannetta ranked second in OPS. He’s arrived and is plenty young enough to improve.

9. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants: So what if Molina is the slowest MLB player alive, just slightly faster than Ted Williams’ frozen head? The Giants rode him last season, and he responded with personal bests in many key categories, enjoying a tremendously productive year. Molina has pretty decent pop for a catcher and his strike zone judgment bounced back after a couple down years in that regard, but I do worry about the fact that he’ll be 35 this summer, and his body doesn’t exactly scream “in it for the long haul” to me.

10. Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles: Because of his tremendous power/average combo, Wieters is one of the most anticipated catching prospects to come along in many years. And if you’re thinking that just because he’s a rook, you can sleep on him in your draft this spring, think again. We’ve seen him going in the 10th round, so don’t let Wieters slide. There is some question about whether he’ll be the full-time starter right from the get-go, but no one doubts that the job will be his soon. Baltimore certainly has cleared the catching decks for him, shifting 2005 first rounder Brandon Snyder to a corner infield slot (although injuries were a part of that plan, too) and shipping incumbent Ramon Hernandez to Cincy.

11. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox: Another veteran catcher who’s getting a wee bit long in the tooth, Pierzynski still managed to impress us enough in 2008 to record his third 150-hit season. For now, he remains a productive backstop.

12. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees: Posada struggled badly last season, endured two trips to the DL and finally had his season end early thanks to shoulder surgery. He’ll slide this year as a result (you can get him in the 18th round of some drafts we’ve been involved with), but don’t sleep on him too long – reports on this Yankee leader’s shoulder have been extremely positive this spring.

13. Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay Rays: Despite an early-season injury, Navarro set a career high in games played, responding with the finest offensive season of his career. There’s still plenty of upside here, and I could see him turning into that long-promised .300-hitting catcher, but I wonder what impact losing in arbitration to the Rays will have on the youngster.

14. Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland Indians: Pop quiz: who led all AL catchers in home runs last season? In any other season, V-Mart or Posada would be good guesses, even Hernandez. But in 2008, it was Shoppach’s 21 dingers that led the way. Cleveland’s “backup” catcher just keeps getting better and better. He’s a productive bat who made some strides in improving his patience at the plate last year. With Martinez expected to see plenty of action at first base and DH, don’t worry about Shoppach not getting enough at bats to be a very useful fantasy asset.

15. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals: One of the best defensive catchers in the biz, Molina’s offensive game has been developing nicely as well the past couple of seasons. His strike zone judgment is so strong, leading me to believe that there’s definitely room for further improvement here. In fact, I spent plenty of time last season wondering why he was so underappreciated as a fantasy asset. I still don’t have a good answer.

16. Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona’s intense starting catcher tied his career high in games played, experiencing yet another season of offensive growth in 2008. He’s not much of a contact hitter, upping both his walk and strikeout rates – so if you’re looking for a .300 hitting catcher, Snyder’s not your man. But he’s primed for a big-time power breakout, and it wouldn’t shock me if he approached 25 home runs this year.

17. Ramon Hernandez, Cincinnati Reds: Hernandez’s power bounced back a bit last season, but don’t be looking for him to put up any more 20-dinger years, especially now that he’s in Cincy, which is actually a tougher HR park than Camden (at least in 2008). He’s been in slow decline for a couple of years, and I expect that to continue this season. Expect something to the tune of .260 with a home run total in the low teens. Honestly, Hernandez strikes me as a fantasy catcher that is very close to falling off the map. He’ll offer the Reds more offense from the catcher position than they’ve had in recent years, but that’s not saying much.

18. Jeff Clement, Seattle Mariners: He’s a tremendous power prospect, but Clement struggled to show it as a rook and clearly needs to develop a more patient approach at the plate. He’s going to get a chance to be the starting catcher, but note that Seattle is also preparing to employ him as the backup at first base and I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or not. I suppose it is as long as Clement qualifies at catcher, and the team finds ways to get him more at bats. Gauging Clement’s long-term home on the diamond, however, is trickier business. We already identified Adam Moore as a serious threat to Clement’s claim as the catcher of the future in Seattle, and that’s something to consider in a keeper league.

19. Kurt Suzuki, Oakland Athletics: Suzuki proved to be a real workhorse in his first full season in the majors, although he wasn’t able to develop his power at all. There’s still time to see if some of his doubles will turn into homers, but I have my doubts. What concerns me more was his less patient approach in 2008 – something that won’t be tolerated in Oakland. Suzuki was scorching mid-season, making for a great pickup, but he really faded down the stretch (perhaps because of the huge workload?). Suzuki’s role as the starting catcher is unchallenged for now, but 2009 could be a very important season for determining whether or not he’s a useful long-term asset.

20. Jesus Flores, Washington Nationals: Flores took over as the starting catcher, getting the bulk of the work behind the plate for the Nats last season. I’d like to him develop more patience, because as is, he could be limited from a batting average perspective. Still, there’s enough gap power, productivity and upside potential here to warrant grabbing Flores in the 20th round.

21. Gerald Laird, Detroit Tigers: Laird rebounded from an awful 2007 season, but that only added to Texas’ catching depth. The Rangers helped clear this logjam by dealing him to Detroit this offseason, and so far, the Tigers are thrilled with their acquisition.

22. John Baker, Florida Marlins: Baker came out of nowhere last season, showing pop and patience after an extremely long apprenticeship in the minors. Yes, he’s quite inexperienced, but he spent the offseason improving his ability to shut down the running game – something that will stead him well in his quest to remain a starter.

23. Ivan Rodriguez, FA: I-Rod’s power continued to decline, but at least his overall game looked like it had bounced back to an extent last season. But then, he arrived in the Big Apple and his extra-base pop completed disappeared. We thought Boston or the Mets might be interested, but neither of those options panned out. There was even word Texas wanted to bring him back (assuming it could deal away one of its trio of great young catchers), where Pudge could be a mentor and back up whoever won the starting job. But Rodriguez still wants to play five days a week, so forget about that plan. Finally, there is the ongoing rumour that Florida will bring him back, and if that happens, obviously Baker won’t be as valuable.

24. Taylor Teagarden/Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Texas Rangers: This duo earns a single entry as the winner of the job will be ranked right here. To add to the confusion, young Max Ramirez is another talented young backstop for Texas. Teagarden has played the fewest big league games, but he may very well be the best of the trio. Saltalamacchia, the youngest, has been knocking on the door for a while now, but his offensive development stalled last season. We considered him a must-own when he was recalled last season, but it didn’t work out so well for Salty. Many expect him to break camp as the starter and hold the job initially, and his big start to the spring has done nothing to alter that opinion.

25. Miguel Olivo, Kansas City Royals: Olivo was more or less in a job share with John Buck last season, but despite his low contact rates, the Dominican showed a better stick than he had in 2007 with the Fish. He got off to a strong start, making him an early-season wire target for AL-only owners, and although his BA slipped dramatically in June and July, he’s expected to be the main man behind the plate in KC this season. Do note that Buck will continue to fight Olivo for PT all season long, so this is far from a settled situation.

Others to Consider

26. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
27. Jason Kendall, Milwaukee Brewers
28. Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies
29. Rod Barajas, Toronto Blue Jays
30. Paul Lo Duca, F/A

Cheat Sheet Archives

2008 Preseason

Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers
Outfielders

2007

Third basemen
Shortstops
Second basemen
First basemen
Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

1. Amare Stoudemire, C/PF, Phoenix Suns: He won’t see much action at C, but he qualifies there, and given that he made most of his starts there last year, I put him on this list. While helping in the usual big man categories, Stoudemire will also carry you in FG percentage and help you in FT percentage, not an easy find among big men.

2. Elton Brand, C/PF, Philadelphia 76ers: Brand will also spend most of his time at the four this year, but having made five of his six starts last year at centre, he qualifies there, thus shooting his stock even higher. Last season was a complete write off for him, but he’s now healthy and ready to resume his dominance, only this time back in the Eastern Conference with an improving 76er squad.

3. Al Jefferson, C/PF, Minnesota Timberwolves: Yet another big man who qualifies at two positions, Big Al finally turned in a healthy season and man, was it worth the wait. Able to carry a bigger workload, Jefferson improved his FT shooting en route to a major breakout offensively. At age 23, there’s still tons of upside here.

4. Dwight Howard, C, Orlando Magic: Superman made minor strides dealing with his Kryptonite (sinking free throws) last year; this season, he has his X-ray vision set on blocking even more shots.

5. Yao Ming, C, Houston Rockets: Well, he came a bit closer to making it through the season unscathed, but that’s now three straight years Ming has suffered a major injury. His touches were down, and that obviously affected his scoring, but the Ming Dynasty enjoyed his finest season off the glass yet.

6. Pau Gasol, PF/C, Los Angeles Lakers: Gasol will mostly play the four this year, but considering most of his starts were at centre last season, we’re tossing him in here. He didn’t exactly have a banner year last season, but we’re expecting a nice bounce back effort in his first full season in La La Land.

7. Marcus Camby, C, Los Angeles Clippers: The Cambyman had a career year on the glass last season despite PT that’s been in decline for a couple of seasons. His touches and FG percentage also slipped, and that heel injury is a major concern. So there you have it – you know what this dude can do when healthy, but draft at your own risk.

8. Andrew Bogut, C, Milwaukee Bucks: This Aussie big man just keeps getting better and given his huge second half last year – especially in April when he averaged 17.6 PPG and 11.4 RPG – and the fact he’s still just 23, big things are coming this season.

9. Mehmet Okur, C/PF, Utah Jazz: Not sure why he qualifies at forward as well, but he does, so the flexibility is nice. Okur has been in decline over the past two years, but remains among the strongest centres in the game. He won’t get you the kind of FG percentages you expect from a big man, but makes up for it by sinking plenty of treys.

10. Andrew Bynum, C, Los Angeles Lakers: Bynum missed most the year, but showed promise offensively and continued to make nice strides from the charity stripe. The starting gig’s his, so go ahead and use a mid-round pick on him.

11. Tyson Chandler, C, New Orleans Hornets: Moving to the Big Easy has been the big break that Chandler needed, as he’s gotten better and better with the Hornets. At age 26, there could still be upside, especially offensively.

12. Rasheed Wallace, C/PF, Detroit Pistons: ‘Sheed’s PT has been getting reduced for a couple of years now – a trend I expect to continue in a deeper Detroit frontcourt – but he’s still capable of contributing a little bit of everything for your team.

13. Al Horford, C/PF, Atlanta Hawks: A near Rookie of the Year performance, qualification at both centre and forward, and double-double potential every time he takes the floor. While more blocks might be nice, there’s a lot to like here.

14. Andris Biedrins, C, Golden State Warriors: Biedrins’s offensive game started moving forward last year as he shot better, got to the line more often, and improved his FT percentage.

15. Greg Oden, C, Portland Trail Blazers: The hype is huge, and Oden will definitely make you happy, but don’t reach too soon.

16. Chris Kaman, C, Los Angeles Clippers: Kaman had his offensive breakout season cut short by injury last year, but with Brand missing most of the season, he was asked to shoulder much more of scoring role. There’s concern over how the addition of Camby will affect Kaman this season, but if he can stay healthy, he’s a quality centre to own.

17. Samuel Dalembert, C, Philadelphia 76ers: Dalembert will help you in boards and blocks, but that’s about it. He’s stayed healthy the past couple of years, but his knee is bothering him, so keep an eye on the situation.

18. Brad Miller, C, Sacramento Kings: Miller bounced back after a horrible, injury-filled 2006-07 and wound up averaging a steal per game while shooting his finest percentage from the line ever. He’ll miss the first five games because of a suspension, slipping him down the rankings a tad.

19. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C, Cleveland Cavaliers: Big Z bounced back after floundering in Cleveland’s new offensive system in 2006-07. He earned himself more touches, and put himself back on the map as a quality fantasy centre.

20. Shaquille O’Neal, C, Phoenix Suns: Shaq’s been in free fall for what seems years, yet he remains a double-double machine when he can take the court. You know the drill – if you draft Shaq Daddy, make sure the rest of your team can sink their freebies and have plenty of backup –he’s injury prone, and Phoenix plans to rest him for the tail end of back-to-backs this season.

21. Joakim Noah, C/PF, Chicago Bulls: There’s talk Noah may come off the bench to start the season, but last year, he earned more minutes as the season progressed and by April, he was averaging 10.6 PPG, almost seven boards per game and close to 1.7 blocks per contest.

22. Ben Wallace, C/PF, Cleveland Cavaliers: Okay, so he no longer pulls down 10 boards on a nightly basis, but Big Ben isn’t quite ready to be set adrift on an ice floe, either.

23. Kendrick Perkins, C, Boston Celtics: No one is going to confuse Perkins with an offensive threat, but last season, given more PT and touches, he responded by shooting extremely well. The boards and blocks are sweet and there is plenty of upside here.

24. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies: Pau’s younger brother, only a Grizz, ironically enough, because of the deal that sent his bro to LA, is someone you should definitely consider as a viable fantasy centre.

25. Andrea Bargnani, C, Toronto Raptors: Il Mago is making a statement for more PT with his play this preseason, and I’m expected a major bounce back year. Remember that he hasn’t yet turned 23 (but will on Wednesday).

Others to Consider

Brook Lopez, C/PF, New Jersey Nets
Andray Blatche, PF/C, Washington Wizards
Josh Boone, PF/C, New Jersey Nets
Spencer Hawes, Sacramento Kings

1. LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers: How much better can he get? The dude is just 23, is already a 30 PPG man, but definitely has room to grow with his outside shooting and work from the line. If he avoids major injury, this could be the year King James really makes his mark.

2. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dallas Mavericks: His PT and boards have been declining for three years, but Disco Dirk still helps across the board, bagging you a trey every game and even pitching in with a career best 3.5 APG last year.

3. Kevin Garnett, PF, Boston Celtics: Many have soured on him to an extent because his minutes – and production – dropped significantly last year as part of the Big Three in Boston. But KG never shot better, and still provides value almost across the board.

4. Shawn Marion, SF/PF, Miami Heat: While he’s not as prolific a scorer as he once was, the Matrix still provides across the board production, so you can’t let him slide too far.

5. Josh Smith, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks: Despite less PT last season, Smoov took his offensive game to a new level, while setting new career bests in SPG and APG. He just keeps getting better and better, and is still just 22.

6. Carmelo Anthony, SF, Denver Nuggets: Sure, he’s gotten less touches since Allen Iverson arrived in town, but Melo has stepped up in other areas of his game to compensate.

7. Tim Duncan, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs: Okay, so he doesn’t play 40 minutes a night anymore, but The Big Fundamental is still a near across-the-board talent, and he even improved his FT shooting last season.

8. Carlos Boozer, PF/C, Utah Jazz: I’m not sure why Yahoo! has him qualified at centre as well, but I’ll take it. Boozer became a bigger part of the Jazz offense last year and even pitched in with a few more blocks, although that’s not really part of his arsenal.

9. Caron Butler, SF, Washington Wizards: I’d love to see this All-Star get to the charity stripe more, but it’s hard to argue with his well-rounded game.

10. Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, Philadelphia 76ers: Iggy is expected to play mostly at the two-guard this year, but with 74 starts at forward last season, I’m listing him here. Regardless of what position he’s playing, Iguodala just keeps getting better, despite playing a bit less last season on a deeper Sixer team.

11. Chris Bosh, PF/C, Toronto Raptors: Again, I’m not clear why Bosh has centre qualification, but that’s a sweet bonus. I’d like to see Bosh’s blocks bounce back, but with Jermaine O’Neal in town, I doubt this will happen. Even sweeter would be to see Bosh incorporate more of an outside game into his repertoire; he’s shown a nice touch when hoisting it up from beyond the arc.

12. Danny Granger, SG/SF, Indiana Pacers: Swingman qualification is just another reason to like the durable Granger, who continues to take a larger role and show improvements across the board each season.

13. Paul Pierce, SG/SF, Boston Celtics: Pierce didn’t make any starts at the two-guard spot last year, but still qualifies as a swingman. It’s a good thing, because his value has slipped playing as part of the Big Three. On the plus side, The Truth stayed healthy and upped his blocks, steals and assists last year.

14. Rudy Gay, SF/PF, Memphis Grizzlies: Gay was given way more PT in his sophomore season and he responded with across-the-board improvements, even pitching in with a block per game and the odd assist. Expect another huge jump this season.

15. Antawn Jamison, SF/PF, Washington Wizards: Jamison’s outside game slipped a bit last year, but he more than compensated for that by getting to the line more often and shooting a higher percentage, not to mention having a career year on the glass.

16. Rashard Lewis, SF/PF, Orlando Magic: Lewis’s offense suffered thanks to the breakout performance by Hedo Turkoglu, a bit less PT and the fact that his shooting was off a smidgeon. However, there are few players better from beyond the arc than Lewis.

17. David West, PF, New Orleans Hornets: West enjoyed a tremendous season, and although you’ll need to look elsewhere for your 3-pointers, he provides a great boost in FT shooting, scoring, rebounding and even blocks.

18. Hedo Turkoglu, SG/SF, Orlando Magic: The NBA’s most improved player still qualifies at guard for some reason, but his owners won’t complain. An excellent source of treys, Turkoglu proved he wasn’t a one-trick pony last year by drawing way more fouls to help his scoring average soar.

19. Mike Dunleavy, SG/SF, Indiana Pacers: A true swingman who spends most of his time at forward, Dunleavy is coming off a career year where he parlayed more PT into fantastic production. I’d like to see more steals, and the knee is worrisome, but Dunleavy has arrived as a fantasy force.

20. Josh Howard, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks: The swingman’s FG percentage has slipped three straight years, but everything else is on the rise, and now that Howard is a 7 RPG man and has cut his TOs, he’s even more valuable.

21. Stephen Jackson, SG/SF, Golden State Warriors: Jackson is expected to play at the two-guard (and even some point, apparently) this season, but after making all his starts at forward last year, I’m putting him here. He got way more touches last year, but was a liability in FG percentage. If you can handle that, his across the board skills are a great addition.

22. Ron Artest, SF/PF, Houston Rockets: Although his rebounding slipped last year, Artest enjoyed a great season from behind the arc, helping to improve his scoring big time. Yes, he’s a headache, but is too much of an across the board talent to ignore.

23. Richard Jefferson, SF, Milwaukee Bucks: Okay, so RJ’s rebounding was down, but he proved he was healthy, logging heavy minutes and lighting up the scoreboard.

24. Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, Charlotte Bobcats: Crash is another forward that’s rebounding fell, but pretty well everything else went up, especially his trips to the charity stripe. He’s an injury risk as always, but man, can help you in so many ways.

25. Corey Maggette, SG/SF, Golden State Warriors: While Maggette’s rebounding slipped and he missed a fair amount of time last year, he enjoyed an explosive offensive season and returned to the one SPG territory. Expect more of the same this season with the free-wheeling Warriors.

26. Lamar Odom, SF/PF, Los Angeles Lakers: Odom never shot better and enjoyed a great rebounding season last year, but he didn’t use the 3-pointer as a weapon as he had in the past. The fact that he’ll be coming off the bench hurts his value somewhat, but Odom is still a very good bet.

27. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, Portland Trail Blazers: I don’t know where this C eligibility comes from, but man, I’ll take it. Aldridge showed improvements across the board in his sophomore season, especially in terms of drawing fouls. I’m expecting more of the same this year.

28. Emeka Okafor, PF/C, Charlotte Bobcats: Okafor’s touches have dropped every year since his rookie season, but he shot better last year – except from the line, of course. He’ll be pressed to enjoy a breakout year by Coach Larry Brown.

29. Michael Beasley, SF/PF, Miami Heat: This kid needs to be the first rookie taken off the board, probably around the sixth round.

30. Luol Deng, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls: Don’t freaking ask me where Yahoo! has come up with guard eligibility for Deng, but that only makes him more attractive. Like most Bulls, Deng slipped last year, but we’re expecting him to move to the next level this season, making him a nice value pick.

31. Jermaine O’Neal, PF/C, Toronto Raptors: O’Neal’s 2007-08 campaign was truly forgettable, and he remains an injury risk, but if he can play 70 games, he’ll reward you nicely from a late fifth round slot.

32. Zach Randolph, PF, New York Knicks: Randolph, like everyone else in New York, struggled last season. With his PT and touches down, his numbers suffered, but it’s supposedly a new day in the Big Apple, so Randolph could bounce back under new coach Mike D’Antoni.

33. Andrei Kirilenko, SF/PF, Utah Jazz: AK-47 bounced back somewhat after his disastrous 2006-07 season, but there’s still room for more. He’ll be coming off the bench, so temper your expectations, but I still like his across the board potential.

34. Peja Stojakovic, SG/SF: Yes, he has swingman qualification for some reason, but either way, Peja proved he was healthy last year, and shot well while improving his rebounding numbers. Three treys a game? Sweet.

35. Marvin Williams, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks: Williams stayed healthy last year and earned more touches as a result, but his limited outside game vanished. Still, I’m expecting a very nice year of growth from this former Tar Heel.

36. Al Harrington, PF/C, Golden State Warriors: Harrington’s PT and shooting slipped last year, but you’ve got to love that centre qualification and the fact that he’s really developing his outside game, putting up five attempts per game from beyond the arc.

37. Al Thornton, SF/PF, Los Angeles Clippers: Thornton was a wonderfully pleasant surprise as a rookie, and I’m expecting more touches this year as he looks to enjoy a major breakout.

38. David Lee, PF/C, New York Knicks: Lee’s rebounding dropped a bit last year, but we’re willing to throw out basically everything that happened in NY last season. This dude has centre qualification, and is a major gamer. Gotta love him!

39. Tayshaun Prince, SF, Detroit Pistons: Prince didn’t have a banner year, with his touches, steals and rebounds in particular all slipping, but he’s capable of pitching in with a little bit of everything.

40. Charlie Villanueva, SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks: Villanueva is expected to see plenty of action with Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons out of the picture. As a bonus, Charlie V is playing for a contract, so look for his shooting touch to return.

41. Troy Murphy, PF/C, Indiana Pacers: Murphy’s expected double-double season didn’t happen last year, even though he remained relatively healthy. His shooting slipped a bit, but because of his centre eligibility, he remains a solid fantasy choice.

Here are a few forwards that missed the cut, but also qualify at centre, so deserve mention:

Boris Diaw, Phoenix Suns
Luis Scola, Houston Rockets
Chris Wilcox, Oklahoma City Thunder
Nick Collison, Oklahoma City Thunder
Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz
Jason Maxiell, Detroit Pistons
Nene Hilario, Denver Nuggets