Franklin Gutierrez, with his power and speed potential, makes an excellent sleeper choice. (Associated Press)
With Spring Training drawing to a rapid close (and given that we’ve already had a couple games that count, we’re damn confused about whether the exhibition season is ongoing or not), a quick look at some of those early sleeper candidates and potential waiver wire acquisitions would be in order.
1. Franklin Gutierrez, CLE, OF - The job is his to lose heading into the 2008 season and thus far, he has most certainly reaffirmed that the Tribe made a solid decision. That .395 batting average combined with two homers and ten RBI, suggest he’s ready to enjoy a very solid start to the 2008 campaign. Drafted either very late or not at all, the potential is most certainly there for Gutierrez to put a 20-HR, 15-SB season this year.
2. Matt Diaz, ATL, OF - With the Spring Training struggles and subsequent demotion of Brandon Jones, it looks like we’ll finally get to see Matt Diaz batting against both lefties and righties this year. If he can hit those righties half as good as the lefties, there could be some pleasant surprises in store in 2008. With the outfield position being not as deep as we’ve seen in the past, Diaz could turn into a rather respectable late round choice.
3. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU, SP - Is there any reasonable explanation for those home/road splits in 2007? With 158 stikeouts and a 2.94 ERA at Minute Maid, it certainly bears at least a second glance. Any improvement in those road splits and Rodriguez could be a very nice addition to the back end of your rotation this year.
4. Masahide Kobayashi, CLE, RP - Masahide Kobayashi comes to the Tribe bullpen this spring with some very solid credentials. Those 200-plus career saves in Japan, combined with Smokin’ Joe Borowski’s ability to turn three-run saves into one-run saves, makes this a most interesting situation. I guess the question would be, if and when Borowski fails, do they move Rafael Betancourt out of the set-up role he’s been very successful in or take advantage of the proven closer ability in Kobayashi? I’m betting on Kobayashi at this stage.
5. Alexei Ramirez, CWS, 2B/SS/OF - Heading into camp this spring it was almost a foregone conclusion that the former star of the Cuban National program would be starting 2008 at Triple-A. With Danny Richar on the mend for the next four-to-six weeks, and Juan Uribe on and off waivers, that leaves us with Pablo Osuna. Those 17 Spring Training RBI to date and the ability to play multiple positions, could lead Ramirez to fill a super-sub role for both Ozzie Guillen and your fantasy team.
6. Chris Synder, ARZ, C - Snyder managed to have himself a very solid second half in 2007 and thus far has carried that play over to Spring Training. There are already rumblings in the desert that Snyder might be forcing his way higher in the batting order. For a player that is either getting drafted late as an end play, or not at all, there are reasons for optimism heading into 2008.
7. Eugenio Velez, SF, 2B - Come on San Francisco, find a place for this guy to get some at bats this year. He’s currently the offensive leader in just about every category this spring and those 14 stolen bases are looking very solid. This could be a huge bargain for those looking to pad those stolen base numbers in ‘08.
8. Pedro Feliz, PHI, 3B - Now Feliz isn’t exactly a spring chicken, but how many leagues is he currently sitting unowned in right about now? The move to Philly this year could potentially move Pedro up a notch or two and possibly into the 25-85 range, making him a serviceable option at the corner for this year.
9. Carlos Gomez, MIN, OF - After a very slow start this spring, Carlos Gomez has turned it up a notch and looks to be starting 2008 in the lead-off role. The main prize in the Johan Santana sweepstakes has already swiped ten bases this spring and for those looking for some serious speed he could be the answer. Just be wary there will be undoubtedly be some bumps in the road.
10. Jason Bergmann, WAS, SP - If Bergmann can remain healthy and continues to limit those base on balls, he could be an option in deeper formats this year. Someone is going to win some games in Washington this year and Bergmann could very well be that man.
A group of writers and readers got together this past Wednesday and kicked off the inaugural RotoRob’s Regulars season. My hats off to all the participants: 15 teams, 23 players per team and done like dinner in two hours flat. It just doesn’t get any better. Somewhere in the mid to late rounds this crew actually managed to get a good ten picks off in less than 30 seconds. It is always a pleasure drafting with a group that knows their stuff and this crew qualified without a doubt.
I’ve been a very big proponent this year of drafting and filling those outfield slots early and wanted to give myself an opportunity to see how the other half lived. Drafting in the ninth slot gave me the perfect chance to try a new strategy and, with no hesitation, I chose Johan Santana and we were off.
Here’s my round-by-round picks with the overall number of the selection in parenthesis:
1. Johan Santana (9) - Time to move outside my comfort zone and draft the best starting pitcher in the game.
2. B.J. Upton (22) - Power/speed combo at both 2B and outfield was just too tough to pass on.
3. Adam Dunn (39) - The last of the big power outfielders available.
4. Eric Byrnes (52) - Stolen bases flying off the board and had to get me some. I didn’t want to have to click on Juan Pierre in about four rounds.
5. Carlos Zambrano (69) - New contract, new attitude = top ten starting pitcher in 2008.
6. Adrian Beltre (82) - Did I mention yet that I really like Beltre for 2008?
7. Ryan Zimmerman (99) - Okay, let’s shorten up third base a bit. We are using two Utility slots so why not?
8. Kosuke Fukudome (112) - A little early for Kosuke, but I was beginning to see all those former NPB guys going off the board and nary one heading my way. The thought of having to try and defend a Kei Igawa pick at the end forced my hand a bit here.
9. Kenji Johjima (129) - Okay, a trend is developing, but with using only one catcher slot, I might as well get a decent one. Note to self: Kaz Matsui is way beyond a reach for Round Ten.
10. Matt Capps (142) - Just about the right time to acquire that first closer. How many went this round, only seven? Getting just a bit too close to Joe Borowski time for my liking.
11. Billy Butler (159) - I’m hoping to be able to say “The Butler did It” in about five months. 1B and OF qualifier for 2008 is a nice bonus.
12. Ian Snell (172) - Decent WHIP, ERA and stikeouts. Wins? Hmmm, a bit shaky in Steeltown.
13. Brandon Lyon (189) - Has the job for now and still avoiding the Joe Borowski button.
14. Aaron Hill (202) - I now have room to slide Upton into my outfield. Hill is a very underrated pick heading into 2008. I really wanted Khalil Greene as my shortstop here, but my friend Andy took care of that one for me.
15. Stephen Drew (219) - The batting average better climb or my lack of middle infield could be ugly.
16. Mark Buehrle (232) - Steady as she goes. Nothing spectacular, but he’s a steady contributor across the board.
17. Franklin Gutierrez (249) - One of my favourite late round sleeper picks. I’ll take a 20-80 dude with 15 stolen base potential in Round 17.
18. Carlos Villanueva (262) - He will win the gig and contribute 15 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA. Yes, the meds have now kicked in!
19. Masahide Kobayashi (279) - One of several reasons I didn’t want to be picking Borowski.
20. Scott Rolen (292) - I’m betting on a rebound in Hogtown.
21. Nick Johnson (309) - With Butler slotted in at first base, a back-up plan is not a bad idea.
22. Jon Garland (322) - With the ongoing injuries in the Anaheim rotation, Garland could be the ace by the time this gets to print.
23. Chris Ray (339) - Purely a strategic move here. We have a DL slot and I plan on using it early to get me an extra pick as soon as the season is underway.
All things considered I’m relatively happy with my results. My starting pitching is solid and the bullpen should leave me mid-pack in the saves category. By acquring Hill and Johnson late and the flexibility offered in both Upton and Butler, my outfield has a bit of depth and the stolen bases should be adequate.
Good fortunes to all this year and again my thanks for a great draft!
When hunting for a Hunter, we’d take Torii over Pence. (AP Photo/Ric Francis)
To help prepare you for your upcoming baseball draft, we’ve prepared some very top ten lists, which will be unveiled over the next few days.
1. Ryan Braun: I like Braun, just not as high on the totem pole as we’re currently seeing him reside. When I look at a late first round/early second round pick, I want a little bit more history. Ponder this one for just a second. Braun is currently going one slot ahead of top outfielder Carl Crawford according to the most recent Average Draft Reports at Mock Draft Central. What combination of players provides the best scenario? Crawford and Adrian Beltre, or Braun and the three closest outfielders to Beltre in the ADP rankings in Jermaine Dye, Juan Pierre, or Delmon Young?
2. Hunter Pence: Pence most certainly has the potential, but we are talking about a player that has never stolen more than 17 bases at any level in his relatively short career. Granted, this certainly doesn’t mean it won’t or can’t occur, but seeing him currently being drafted ahead of Torii Hunter, Dan Haren, Chipper Jones, Carlos Zambrano and Ian Kinsler just doesn’t cut the mustard for me.
3. Derek Jeter: The face of the Yankees is supporting his current draft position based on a combination of past performance and his real-life value. We play fantasy ball and his contributions other than the batting average have fallen into the marginal levels. Drafting Jeter five slots ahead of Troy Tulowitzki just isn’t a solid play.
4. Any closer drafted before Round Ten: I’m simply not a believer in drafting for the closer slot early. With a position as volatile as this one is, the better gamble is in those second- and third-tier closers as compared to the Jonathon Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez types. Does your team really need more than one (J.J.) Putz at the helm?
5. Aaron Rowand: Can we all say “career year?” If so, and you want the joy of paying for it, Aaron’s your man. Let’s just take a quick look at the past three years.
2005 - .270 BA, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 16 SB
2006 - .262 BA, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 10 SB
2007 - .309 BA, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 6 SB
Moving to an offensive jugger”not” in the Giants should do nothing but improve the odds on a repeat of that not-so stellar 2005 season.
6. Jorge Posada: A peak year at the age of 36 does not bode well for success heading into 2008. When was the last time that Posada broke .290 in batting average? The answer would be never, and to expect anything remotely close to that 2007 batting average of .338 would fall into the major reach department. At this stage of his career, a Ryan Zimmerman or Shane Victorino, both in the same ADP range as Posada, have the chance to provide better value, as does a late round gamble at catcher.
7. Dontrelle Willis: A trend has developed here and a move to the Detroit Tigers should not help. The ERA and WHIP keep climbing upwards and the strikeouts keep falling. Stay away; the trend is going to continue especially in light of the fact that Willis now faces the designated hitter and not the pitcher. American League hitters are anxiously looking forward to teeing off on the D-Train in 2008.
8. Travis Hafner: I had the opportunity to watch Hafner flail away in person last summer, and it was not pretty. He looked totally lost last year and his numbers most certainly reflected it. A rebound can’t be ruled out, but I’d rather be gambling with a Carlos Pena or Adam Dunn, if I was looking for that big bopper in the 3-4-5 rounds.
9. Alex Rios: A top 30 player? Not on my draft lists. I certainly believe there is some potential for improvement, but with an ADP that’s currently at 29, is this value or overhype? I’m betting on the second choice here. Having never exceeeded 17 stolen bases means he is not a five-category stud. I’d be looking at a Corey Hart or Nick Markakis long before Rios would be part of my starting outfield.
10. Juan Pierre: If you’re looking for stolen bases and batting average, Juan Pierre is your man. Hmm, did I fail to mention that things are getting awful crowded in the Dodgers’ outfield? Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Andruw Jones and Pierre with no designated hitter, means someone is gonna suck up a few games on the bench. No thanks Juan, I’ll find my stolen bases elsewhere.
Tim missed out on nabbing Carl Crawford in the second round, but rebounded like a pro.
After getting in those first 40 or 50 mock drafts, it was high time to actually start playing the game for real. The 2008 fantasy season commenced for me on February 24 this year, my earliest start ever. The “Fantasy Writers League” is a 12-team league of industry writers in a standard 5×5 format. I’ve been touting the “All Outfield, All the Time” strategy for a while now and it was time to put all that practice to work. I ended up picking in the ninth slot and decided that I’d forego my usual reach on Carl Crawford and go with the stud of all stud second base types, Chase Utley.
The plan was for Crawford to hopefully fall to me on the way back in the second round. I gambled and lost as Crawford didn’t fall, so it was off to work on Plan “B.” My usual strategy is to lock up one of the 40-plus stolen base guys early, but this time around a more balanced approach to stolen bases would be required. After acquiring Utley, I moved forward, attempting to fill the outfield early and to vulture my pitching in the mid to later rounds. Overall, I’m relatively happy with this first effort. My pitching is going to be somewhat of a struggle, but I’ve always felt confident that the waiver wire can, and will be my friend.
The following are some random observations that I think should be of interest to all:
1. Starting pitching seemed to go a bit faster than in my practice mocks. Be very careful it doesn’t pass you by.
2. Stolen bases continue to fly off the board early. Do you really want to be the guy picking up Juan Pierre somewhere in the sixth round?
3. Give yourself ample time to review the ranking system of the site you’re using for your draft, or input one of your preferred choice. Most of us have done our practice and research and quite possibly a slew of mock drafts, but until you actually see the draft interface you are using there are always those little hidden gems lurking that you want to be able to take advantage of. Brandon Lyon is buried somewhere in the middle of nowhere in the Yahoo! rankings and most certainly could have some great value as a late-round closer pick. Again, I can’t reinforce enough getting to the site early and doing the necessary homework.
Below, you will find the summary of my draft, with the overall pick number in brackets.
1. Chase Utley, 2B (9)
2. Grady Sizemore, OF (16)
3. Victor Martinez, C,1B (33)
4. Nick Markakis, OF (40)
5. Chris Young, OF (57)
6. Ian Kinsler, 2B (64)
7. Brad Hawpe, OF (81)
8. Adrian Beltre, 3B (88)
9. Roy Halladay, SP (105)
10. Matt Cain, SP (112)
11. Orlando Cabrera, SS (129)
12. Kosuke Fukudome, OF (136)
13. Carlos Delgado, 1B (153)
14. B.J. Ryan, RP (160)
15. Kevin Gregg, RP (177)
16. Tom Gorzelanny, SP (184)
17. Gil Meche, SP (201)
18. Josh Willingham, OF (208)
19. A.J. Pierzynski, C (225)
20. Ian Kennedy, SP (232)
21. Hiroki Kuroda, SP (249)
22. Scott Rolen, 3B (256)
23. Mark Ellis, 2B (273)
Bench:
Rajai Davis, OF (280) Shawn Hill, SP (297) Matt Guerrier, RP (304)
When reviewing Tim’s “all outfielders, all the time” strategy, you don’t need to wonder if he just fell off a truck - he really did!
A couple of weeks ago, the fine folks over at Mock Draft Central assembled their first “Expert” mock of the New Year, with yours truly being fortunate enough to pick up an invite. My apologizes for the lateness of this draft summary, but unfortunately I got both a bit long-winded and a tad light on the number of fingers required to type this thing. (Note to self: when falling off the back of a truck, the wrist does not work well in cushioning the blow.)
Well, better late than never I say! As you can see, the list of participants was a veritable who’s who from the fantasy world. The draft order:
1. David Gonos - CBS Sports
2. Andy Behrens - Yahoo!
3. Derek Carty - The Hardball Times
4. Jason Pliml - Mock Draft Central
5. Chris Bracke - Mock Draft Central
6. Brent Grooms - Baseball HQ
7. Ray Flowers - Baseball Guys
8. Tim McLeod - RotoRob
9. Nate Stephens - Rotoworld
10. Peter Kreutzer - AskRotoman
11. Mike Kuchera - Fantasy Baseball Express
12. Mike Inglett - Sport Fanatics
I have a tendency when formulating my draft strategy to revert to what I call the “safe” mode, or my comfort zone. I have a history of placing a very high value on steals, vulturing saves and looking at starting pitching in the middle to late rounds. A lot of these philosophies stem from my play in larger 15- and 20-team formats, where I find these strategies work exceptionally well.
For this draft, a 12-team, 5×5 format, I decided to work towards a different goal. Picking eighth, the plan was to look for Chase Utley with my first pick, grab Johan Santana with the fourth pick in Round Two and follow up with Victor Martinez in Round Three. With catcher and second base being relatively weak positions in terms of depth heading into 2008, I wanted to look at position scarcity early as a strategy.
Ah, the best laid plans of mice and men. Utley went early, Peter Kreutzer shattered my dreams by grabbing Santana, and both Martinez and Russell Martin went before my third pick. Okay, so that didn’t work. So let’s build ourselves a power/speed package and head back to familiar ground with the pitching later on, my safe zone.
Again I can’t stress enough when drafting the value of having that “Plan B” ready and the ability to change horses in the middle of the stream. That and the Boy Scout’s motto “Be Prepared,” should be part of every fantasy player’s vocabulary. With that in mind, let’s move forward and give this the old once over.
Round One - As mentioned, Utley went a bit higher than I expected (fifth), with Albert Pujols sliding into seventh. No big surprises as I watched all the big stolen base guys taken off the board. Utley in the eighth slot was apparently a bit of a reach on my behalf, so Matt Holliday it was.
Round Two - Okay, Santana is gone, so let’s pick up some five-category talent in Grady Sizemore. I was a bit surprised that he fell to me, but I certainly was not going to complain. I found the fact that Vladimir Guerrero fell to the No. 21 slot a bit odd. I believe it is more of a statement reflecting the need for speed and those seven third basemen and shortstops moving in the first round rather than a perception that Guerrero’s skill set is deteriorating.
Round Three - There I was, mulling over Curtis Granderson, Alex Rios and one of my personal favourites, Nick Markakis, with my third pick. I wanted the stolen base potential so Granderson it was. It would seem that Nate Stephens and Kreutzer were on the same page as me, as Rios and Markakis went with the next two picks. No major surprises here as the top two catchers went early in this round. I thought one might fall to me, but it wasn’t happening.
Round Four - At this stage, I was off to a decent start on offense but was still looking for a bit more power. With three outfielders on board already can I make a move on a fourth and still build a decent team? I think I can, so I proceeded to grab Adam Dunn in the fourth. The worst that can happen here is I’ve now built a top-tier outfield and hopefully shorted the position a bit, allowing me some bargains later on. My power and speed were now in good shape.
Round Five - Time to head back towards that original train of thought with regards to position scarcity. Robinson Cano went with the first pick in Round Five, so with the top four second basemen now gone, I reached a bit and took Ian Kinsler. After Kinsler, the dropoff gets rather pronounced in my opinion and I really like that 25-home run, 25-stolen base potential. The first closer went this round, Jonathon Papelbon, and I really liked the Corey Hart pick by Brent Grooms in the 54th spot overall.
Round Six - With the top two catchers gone, it was time to fill that slot with Brian McCann. I think the 20-90 potential in a relatively weak position works just fine.
Round Seven - Traditionally, I’ve been very high on gambling on the closer slot and for this mock I wanted to get a top-tier closer to shore up the position. With Papelbon gone, I went with the Mariners’ J.J. Putz. The outfield was basically done, I was strong up the middle and had a top-tier closer, so I was starting to really like the way my team was falling into place.
Round Eight - The pitching started moving a bit this round with three starters and two closers taken off the board. I went with one of my favourite picks at this stage of the draft and grabbed Adrian Beltre. There’s nothing wrong with 25-100 potential and 10 or so stolen bases at the corner. Remember, Beltre has seemingly been around forever, yet is only 28 and heading into what could be potentially his peak power years. I really like the Vernon Wells pick here by Chris Bracke. A healthy Vernon in the spring makes this pick a potential steal.
Round Nine - Time to start building a pitching staff, so Kelvim Escobar it was. As long as he can stay healthy, he’ll certainly provide adequate numbers across the board.
Round 10 - Back down the ladder, and I grabbed another of my favourite picks to click in 2008, Matt Cain. Don’t let that won/loss record dissuade you; those peripherals are solid and any semblance of either offense or breaks and it wouldn’t shock me to see 15 wins this coming year. Finally we get to the round where the pitching starts to fly, with eight of the 12 picks used on hurlers.
Round 11 - I happened to be following the first base situation fairly close and it was getting to be that time, so I reached a bit and took James Loney. With my cumulative offense, I like the BA potential and I could sacrifice a bit of power. I really didn’t want to be the owner of Carlos Delgado and that .250 BA.
Round 12 - I went back to the pitching here, taking Chad Billingsley, and hoping he can further build on that excellent second half of 2007. Given a full year in the rotation, 15 wins with 180 Ks is a distinct possibility.
Round 13 - Time to continue working on that starting rotation and I just couldn’t pass on the risk/reward of grabbing the Brew Crew’s Ben Sheets. If Sheets can stay healthy and, yes, it’s a huge “if,” getting a potential “ace” at this stage is a steal. I really like the Kosuke Fukudome pick by Andy Behrens at this stage. In Round 13, how many players have that .300 BA, 20-80, 10 SB potential?
Round 14 - Coming back down the ladder it was time for me to fill in the outfield and I went with some youth with decent upside in Jacoby Ellsbury. I like the potential for 25-30 SB with a decent BA. It was time for that young talent to start moving as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Joba Chamberlain, and Joey Votto went with the next three picks.
Round 15 - Time for my first serious faux pas of the evening. I reached a bit and took Carlos Marmol of the Cubs. Not that this isn’t what I believe to be a decent gamble based on those 2007 numbers and the very real possibility of him closing this year, but there were other closers available with much lower risks. Mike Kuchera made a very nice grab this round when he went with a much underrated Aaron Hill at second base — a very solid choice at second base this late in the draft.
Round 16 - I’d been watching the SS position intently since early on and made the decision to sit back a bit here and let things fall to me in the later rounds. Jhonny Peralta was still available and at this stage of the draft that 25-75 potential just couldn’t be passed on. With both the depth in this category and quality at the top end, some very nice bargains can be had for those with a bit of patience. There was another great grab by Kuchera this round when he plucked Gary Sheffield at No. 182 overall.
Round 17 - Someone in 2008 has to be the one driving in Hanley Ramirez, so why not Josh Willingham? Adding a bit to the power base this late is certainly not going to hurt. Six of the 12 picks this round were starting pitchers as it was time for most to start filling in the gaps.
Round 18 - It was time to round out my bullpen, so I took Eric Gagne. Here’s hoping in 2008 we see the Texas Ranger Gagne and not the Red Sox model. Again, the chase for pitching continues, with nine more pitchers taken this round.
Round 19 - The end is drawing near. It was time to bolster my rotation and I was sitting there with Zack Greinke ready to roll, when Ray Flowers grabbed him right in front of me. Nice scoop, Ray; that one hurt a bit. I went with option two, and Mark Buehrle was mine. It was the outfielders’ turn to be taken from the board, with six going this round.
Round 20 - It was time to gamble on some youth, so I went with Evan Longoria to fill out the corner infield slot. If one is going to roll the dice, these are most certainly the rounds to be doing it in.
Round 21 - It was time to go with a very steady and conservative play to fill out the middle infield slot, so I grabbed Freddy Sanchez. My speed/power base is pretty decent so that .300 BA this late works. There were more late gambles in the starting pitching as the elderly trio of Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Curt Schilling all went this round.
Round 22 - We’re down to those last two slots, and I needed a back-up catcher for McCann and one more starting pitcher to round out the rotation. About this time, Kate was pulling a fresh load of chocolate chip cookies out of the oven. The cookies won this round without a doubt, as I ended up with Johnny Estrada filling out my catcher slot. You did it to me again, Andy, grabbing Hiroki Kuroda as we head for home.
Round 23 - I needed one more starting pitcher to round out my effort and Wandy Rodriguez it was. If Wandy can ever figure out how to pitch on the road this could be a very nice addition to my rotation. Those 150 or so Ks will certainly be an asset.
Overall, I’m rather happy with the results. I was a bit light on my usual five or six former NPB players, but nonetheless, I wound up with a good balance of power and speed with what could be a decent batting average. I managed to build a nicely balanced team even after taking four outfielders in those first four rounds. Sure, it was a bit of a different strategy, but one that I think merits a close look as the outfield does get a little short heading into those later rounds.
As far as pitching is concerned, this draft just reinforced the fact that in a mixed, 12-team, 5×5 format, building the offense early and using the mid to the later rounds for the pitching is a solid play. I took my first starting pitcher in Round Nine, and believe I have at least a mid-level rotation.
In conclusion, my thanks to all the many skilled participants and the fine folks over at Mock Draft Central; great job as always. Kudos to both Paul Greco and Lenny Melnick for both the live podcast of the draft itself and the follow up analysis. Just remember Lenny, Freddie’s the Man!
