For the second straight year, I was invited to join Charity Stripe, a H2H Fantasy basketball league featuring various sports media types from outlets such as TSN, CBC, Hoopsworld, Yahoo!, RapsHQ, 82games and Rotowire. The draft was held last week, and I was picking out of the dreaded (this year, anyways) five slot. As part of the 2009-10 RotoRob NBA Draft Kit and to help you with your upcoming draft, I will explain my draft, round by round, and discuss various highlights and surprises of each round.

Round One

I was really, really hoping that Kevin Durant would fall to me here, but unfortunately — thanks to my recent Podcast — the dude picking in front of me knew this. And so I was stuck between the hated Kobe Bryant and the riskier pick – with more potential reward, albeit – of Danny Granger.

Given Granger’s recent injury history, I opted for the durable Bryant, despite my distaste for having to root for him. Sure, his name may be bigger than his slowly declining numbers these days, but Kobe still provides plenty of points, he’s a great FT shooter and will be a very good source of steals. There’s no real downside to owning Bryant, so I had to bite the bullet.

LeBron James went first over Chris Paul, and you can make an argument either way. Personally, I would have taken CP3, despite word that the Hornets are determined to reduce Paul’s minutes this year, but these two are both slam dunks.

I was surprised to see Dwight Howard go seventh overall; I had him pegged as an early second rounder, maybe reaching for him at the end of the first round. Brandon Roy, meanwhile, lasted to end of the first round, and I think that’s fantastic value.

Round Two

The second round started more or less as expected; I thought Tim Duncan went a bit early at No. 16, but I was quite pleased that Joe Johnson fell to me at No. 20. Yes, it’s another guard for me, but I was surprised to see that Yahoo! had him qualified at both backcourt positions. The beauty of Johnson is that he racks up a good amount of dimes from the off-guard position, so I wasn’t forced to reach for a true PG before I needed to. That’s why I was stoked to see he qualified there anyways. Yes, the Hawks’ addition of Jamal Crawford may affect Johnson’s touches, but when the two are on the floor at the same time, opponents are going to have a far tougher time double-teaming Johnson.

Here’s another big scorer for my team who will light it up from downtown to take care of the 3-pointers made category. The downside: he’s going to hurt my FG percentage and won’t offer anything in the way of blocks.

The first big reach of this round came right after my pick, when Jason Kidd went 21st. To me, Kidd is a third rounder these days and the fact that Devin Harris was still on the board made this pick all the more surprising. Brook Lopez going 23rd was an even bigger surprise – but, unlike J-Kidd, at least this is a reach that can be justified by Lopez’s tremendous upside. Apparently, everyone is grabbing Lopez in the second round this year.

Antawn Jamison capped the second round, and that’s another pick I wasn’t fond of — and that was before news hit that he’d miss several weeks. Better PF options like David West, Josh Smith and even Elton Brand are still on the board.

Round Three

Rashard Lewis is the first pick of this round (25th overall), and that’s far too early for a player who will be sitting out the first 10 games of the season thanks to a drug-related suspension. I wouldn’t have considered Lewis until as late as the fifth round given that he’ll miss at least 12 per cent of the season. The very next pick is Troy Murphy, and I believe that’s extremely early as well. Sure, he had a fantastic season last year, but many believe he maxed out, and I could see him still sitting there another round from now. Several of the picks this round seemed early, but those two stood out.

Needing to address my frontcourt, I was very happy to find Carmelo Anthony – a second rounder to me – still sitting there at No. 29. Yet another scorer here – clearly, putting up points won’t be a challenge for my team – and Melo also provides with me with some much-needed rebounding and will be a decent source of steals. Unfortunately, his FG percentage could hurt me and he’s not going to help me in blocks.

Right after I took Anthony, Harris was taken – a very strong pick this late. Other picks I really liked this round from a value perspective included Kevin Martin at 32, Paul Pierce at 33 and Rajon Rondo at 35. Jason Richardson was the final pick of the third round, but that was unnecessary – he could have sat there for another round and a half or so.

Round Four

I’m surprised that David West is still sitting there through three rounds, so I target him with my pick, but I don’t get anywhere near him as he flies off the board with pick 37 – a superb selection for this late. Vince Carter goes next – another great value this late, and then things settle in a bit. Shawn Marion is taken early at 41 – I believed he’d still be there a round later and once he goes, I’m thinking about nabbing Brand with the 44th overall pick. Unfortunately, he goes a pick before me, so although I had planned to build the frontcourt, Derrick Rose is too tempting to not pluck this late.

Yes, I’m getting guard-heavy here and don’t have a single PF or C through four rounds, but Rose gives me a true point guard who can deliver the dimes and yet more scoring power – I’m pretty sure if nothing else, I’m going to be heavily outscoring my opponents on a weekly basis. The athletic Rose should also pitch in with steals and FG percentage. Unfortunately, 3-pointers is not his forte, and taking him still leaves my team sadly lacking in blocks.

LaMarcus Aldridge goes at 46, a pick I really like and one I considered from a team needs perspective, but again, I couldn’t let Rose slip by. Point guards make up the final two picks of the round, with Jameer Nelson going somewhat early at 47 and Baron Davis going somewhat late at 48. That B-Diddy pick could be huge.

Round Five

The first player off the board this round is Marcus Camby – a shockingly early selection of such an injury-prone player. I wasn’t going to touch him for another round and half at least, and it wouldn’t have surprised me had he sunk even lower than that. Carlos Boozer goes 51st – nice value for this spot, assuming he doesn’t get hurt as usual or get dealt somewhere that negatively affects his Fantasy performance. Andrea Bargnani is taken next, and it could be a round too early, but there’s a decidedly Toronto-centric influence among this league, so I shouldn’t be surprised.

At 53, I’m eyeing Tony Parker, but my frontcourt is severely lacking, so I take Rudy Gay. More scoring power here and more steals, but Gay will also help me in boards. Unfortunately, my percentages take a hit with this selection.

Andris Biedrins and Al Horford are the next two picks as the run on centres – a run I have ignored, yet grown increasingly worried about – continues. I believe each of these picks is around one round or more too early, but I do understand the need to reach for size at this juncture in the game.

Mr. Eva Longoria finally goes next – a fantastic pick at No. 56, and then Mehmet Okur is taken 58th – also a wonderful pick, and one I had considered before opting for Gay.

Round Six

Stephen Jackson was still sitting there as we began this round, and despite the drama and crappy FG percentage, this dude produces, so was I targeting him. Unfortunately, he went the pick before me, leaving me scrambling for other options.

Anthony Randolph was the first player selected this round at No. 61. I thought this was early, but totally not surprising considering all the hype. Let’s hope for his owners’ sake that he’s not the 2009-10 version of Andray Blatche. Nene went next, and this was a great pick, taking yet another quality centre off the board, much to my chagrin. Al Harrington went shortly after this, right on target, and then Andrew Bynum was taken, a wee bit early I thought, but this could be just fine if he stays healthy for once. That was followed by another big man, Emeka Okafor, and then the S-Jax pick – tremendously value this late in the draft.

I need a centre badly, so I opted for Zach Randolph, who qualifies at both the four and the five. This gives me a legitimate rebounder, and yes, yet another scorer. He should give my FG percentage a much-needed kick in the pants, but could hurt my FT shooting. Unfortunately, Z-Bo is a double-double machine who doesn’t help in blocks and he won’t be contributing in 3-pointers either. Randolph was probably my first reach, but my team was looking way too small, and I had allowed the centre run to pass me by while focusing on other things (probably shiny things on my floor).

The second last pick of this round (71st overall) was John Salmons – another superb selection at this juncture.

Round Seven

Lou Williams was taken first this round, 73rd overall, and considering he’s never been a starter before, I think this is a risky pick. Established PGs like Andre Miller, T.J. Ford and Mike Bibby are still on the board and developing PGs Mike Conley, Mario Chalmers, Aaron Brooks, Rodney Stuckey, Raymond Felton, Ramon Sessions and Nate Robinson are also all still available, so going with Williams could be a reach.

Two picks later, Ben Gordon is taken — a fantastic pick this late in the draft. I had been looking at him, and that leaves me torn between Jason Terry and Eric Gordon. I opt for Terry and his PG/SG eligibility; he’ll bring me 3-pointers and more scoring (!), but also will help in steals. Of course, he offers no rebounding or blocks and I’m left swearing to myself that I will address these cats…soonish.

Blake Griffin goes next. Too early for my taste, but I can totally understand taking the chance on that upside. This could be a fantastic pick. Or not. I would prefer Boris Diaw, who went next; that’s a very good pick in the middle rounds here. Eric Gordon was next off the board (I was shocked he was still there), and I believe this is also a wonderful selection this late.

A couple of picks late, perennial sleeper J.R. Smith was plucked We’ll see. Given that he’ll be suspended for the first seven games of the season, I would have waited on him at least another round, but this could be a good selection if Smith doesn’t do something stupid, as he is wont to do. The rest of the round consists of high-upside players going a bit early, but I can see taking Greg Oden here. Leandro Barbosa 84th overall is a too early, I think. Yes, he’s a good sleeper and many expect him to bounce back in a big way this year, but I’m not crazy about this pick.

Round Eight

Bibby is the second pick of this round (86th overall) and it feels early. Hell, Andre Miller is still sitting there if it’s dimes you’re after. Guess that owner really needed the treys. Jason Thompson goes next; guess that 20/20 game the other night sure jacked him up the sleeper list. I like Thompson, but it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t have stuck around for another round or so.

Shaquille O’Neal is the next pick, and again this feels early. But centres have been disappearing and I’m having my own issues with big men, so what the hell am I going to say? Still, I would have preferred Andrew Bogut, Chris Kaman or Spencer Hawes here. Of course, Bogut is taken with the very next pick, so there you go.

Paul Millsap, someone I’m looking at, is taken with pick 91, and I think this may turn out to be a huge selection. I’m up next, and still needs bigs, but again, I can’t resist the fact that Andre Miller is still there. I help myself in assists, steals and scoring with this pick, but he’s not a three-point shooter and I am still sadly lacking in blocks. Uh ya….I’ll deal with that later.

Joakim Noah is the next pick, and how soon he’s taken surprises me. I didn’t expect him to go for another two, maybe three rounds. Another big off the boards. Lamar Odom is the last player selected in this round (96) and that’s the kind of guy I could have used. Nice pick.

Round Nine

The first pick of this round raised a few eyebrows – Kevin Love? This would normally be a perfect time to take the second-year big man for the Wolves, but with news emerging a couple of days before the draft that he broke his hand and would require surgery that should sideline him for six-to-eight weeks, this is a gutsy call. I might have taken him in the last round, but there are options out there that can help you now, not two months from now.

If that pick surprised me, I was even more shocked when Anthony Morrow was the next player taken. Morrow as a top 100 pick? No. I think he’s a fringe draft worthy player, perhaps a decent gamble as a last round flier, but surely he’d still be there in the last round. You have to understand that there are still consistent big scorers like Josh Howard and Allen Iverson on the board at this time. Point guards like Conley and Chalmers are still sitting there. Potential breakout players like Michael Beasley and Thaddeus Young are still available. Quality bigs like Kaman and Hawes can still be had. This is no time to be taking Anthony freaking Morrow and all the Don Nelson-induced headaches that go along with owning him. Phew. I feel better now.

In fact, the bigs start dropping then and there when the next three picks are Hawes, Brad Miller and my pick, Kaman. I got sucked into drafting Kaman last year on an auto-pick glitch, but he was actually pretty good for me – until he got hurt, as usual. Supposedly healthy this year, I’m counting on him boosting my FG percentage, giving me some much-needed blocks and helping my rebounding. Of course, Kaman won’t be doing anything in the way of 3-pointers, steals or assists, but I think I’m covered in those areas.

Two picks later, Thad Young is taken, and I think he could provide tremendous value from this slot. Immediately following him, Iverson is grabbed – 104th overall. When was the last time you thought AI had a chance to deliver great value relative to his draft slot? It could easily happen this season.

Stephen Curry is taken next, and while I am a big fan of this kid, I don’t see it happening this year for him. I like Curry as a 13th, maybe 14th round flier based on the tremendous potential, but not in the ninth round. Chalmers is the next pick, and that could be huge. Kudos.

Round 10

The first pick in this round is Roy Hibbert – great upside, but also a great risk. That’s immediately followed by Chris Andersen, also a bit early, but if you needs blocks, you’re now set. Two picks later, Marvin Williams goes at No. 112. I think this could be a wonderful value pick. Johnny Flynn is taken next – too early, but the very next pick is fantastic – although not without its own risks, as Beasley is taken 114th overall. If not for his summer of rehab, he’s got to be a top 100 pick, maybe going as early as the eighth round.

Felton goes next, and I like this one, too. I’m up next, and once again can’t resist who I feel is clearly the top available player – Josh Howard. I am finding time and time again in this draft one particular player who slips several rounds falling to me, and I’m overlooking team needs to take the best available player. JoHo gives me yet another scorer, who will also pitch in with 3-pointers and steals. This could hurt my FG percentage a bit and won’t provide any assistance with assists, but I had to do it.

Two picks later (118), Conley is finally taken. This is great, great value at this stage. Stuckey is taken next, and that’s also a very strong pick.

Round 11

The first few picks of this round go more or less according to plan, and I didn’t have an issue with any of them. In fact, I like the Grant Hill (122) and Andrei Kirilenko (123) picks from a value perspective. My pick is two slots away and I desperately need a big man. I’m torn between taking a chance on the perpetually day-to-day Jermaine O’Neal and the upside of sophomore Marc Gasol. Thankfully, the decision is removed when JO is plucked with the pick before me. Gasol it is. This gives me a rebounder and shot blocker who will also provide a nice boost to my FG percentage. He’ll probably hurt my FT percentage and obviously won’t be bringing me any treys, but I needed Gasol on my team badly.

The next two picks are Channing Frye – hate it – and Brooks – love it. Frye is a deep sleeper who could surprise, but I wouldn’t have done anything but take a last round flier on him. Brooks is poised for a breakout year, and will return serious value from the 127 slot. Next up is Tyson Chandler, and I don’t like it. I just think he’s a shell of his former self now and I’m not sure he’s going to ever return to being a star.

I’m not thrilled with the next pick either – Chris Duhon at 129. There are better PG options still available. For instance, two picks later, Kirk Hinrich is taken, and I see him providing much more value than Duhon this year. Antonio McDyess rounds out what is mostly an underwhelming 11th round.

Round 12

Kendrick Perkins is the second pick of this round, 134th overall, and I think that’s a solid pick as one of the few dependable big men remaining. I also like the Al Thornton selection, two picks later, even though there’s talk he’ll be coming off the bench. I’ve got pick 140, and I’m looking at a pair of Pistons – Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince. I need another forward option and Prince offers a more well-rounded game – I’ve already got enough scoring power. Prince will pitch in on the boards, offer me a bit of scoring and some assists. Unfortunately, his FG percentage may bring me down a tad, but overall he does a bit of everything, so I opt for the well-rounded player here.

Two picks later, Francisco Garcia is selected. Normally, this would a tremendous steal at this stage of the draft, but I guess the owner picking him hadn’t heard that Garcia would miss several months with an injury. Anyways, he has since rectified that pick by dumping Garcia and picking up Zydrunas Ilgauskas on waivers. The next pick is D.J. Augustin, and that could be huge with the subsequent injury to Raja Bell. I liked Augustin here regardless of the fact his role was unclear, but with Bell out, this is a serious bonus.

The final pick of the round is Sessions, and despite the Gomes hype, I think Sessions is going to be an extremely valuable player before all is said and done.

Round 13

As we neared the end of the draft, I expected to start seeing more fliers. And it begins right away with Joel Przybilla. If Oden keeps fouling out of every game or getting hurt, Przybilla will again be a rebound machine. Two picks later, Rip is stripped off the board. How the mighty have fallen – Hamilton as the 147th overall pick? Yes, there are concerns about how he’s going to get his touches with Gordon in town, but I think this is a super value pick this late. Kudos.

Danilo Gallinari is taken next – another fine sleeper selection. Up next, I choose to go big again, grabbing the finally healthy Brendan Haywood. I’m seeking boards, blocks and FG percentage with this pick. He’ll hurt my FT percentage, doesn’t sink 3-pointers and isn’t much of a scorer, but that’s not what I need.

Two picks later, Yi Jianlian goes with the 151st selection. Another super sleeper here – this could be massive. Next is Tracy McGrady. I know – what a headache, but if you get half a season out of him, this could be an excellent return on your investment from this late slot. Definitely worth the flier.

The next pick is the deepest sleeper of all – DeJuan Blair. Yes, there’s tremendous potential here and he could surprise many, but where does the PT come from? To me, Blair is a better waiver wire selection. This is one gutsy sleeper pick.

Next up, Hakim Warrick is taken with the 154th pick. This is another fine sleeper selection. I’m not as thrilled with Mikael Pietrus as a sleeper, however. He might be somewhat valuable while Lewis serves his suspension, but I have my doubts.

Round 14

The final round opens with the selection of Randy Foye. What a great last round pick – despite the uncertainty of his role, he’s got so much untapped potential. Next up, Eddie House is taken, and I don’t see him as a draft-worthy player. Need a boost of treys? Rudy Fernandez is still available, so are Peja Stojakovic and Roger Mason Jr., and I think all three of them bring more to the table than House.

Three picks later, at 161 overall, Jamal Crawford finally goes off the board. I was wondering when this would happen and had him targeted if he was still there. What a splendid pick for the last round. Three picks after that, it’s time for my last selection. I opt for a rook, James Harden from OKC, who strikes me as an across-the-board contributor. I think he’s going to surprise some people this year. At least I freaking hope he does.

And the very final pick of the draft is another rookie, New Jersey’s Terrence Williams. This is a fine sleeper selection, as T-Will has drawn rave reviews in training camp and could also surprise people. He’ll have plenty of opportunity to do so on a weak Net squad.

Overall, I think my team is a bit guard heavy. I’m going to have to scour the wire for rebounding and blocks, but big men tend to emerge as in-season possibilities quite often. I’m confident I will rarely be outscored and I should do quite fine in assists and 3-pointers.

I think the keys for my team will be Kobe being Kobe for at least 80 games, D-Rose taking the expected leap into elite PG status, Melo producing a more well-rounded game, Gay getting enough touches to take the next step, and getting through the year without injuries to guys like Kaman, Haywood and Howard.

Let the season begin!

To win it all, you have to risk it all. Nobody ever achieved greatness by playing it safe. These theories hold true in just about every walk of life, but they are especially pertinent in the world of Fantasy sports. No matter how knowledgeable you are about a particular sport, you will always need a little luck to truly get over the top. All that you can do is put yourself in a position to actually get lucky. Think about the guy who stays out at the bar until last call, talking to girls that are way out of his league. Sure, there are safer moves than trying to pick up a Megan Fox clone, but the risk/reward of the conversation is worth the gamble.

Keeping this theory in mind, I am here to personally implore you to take a look at Brandon Marshall in your upcoming Fantasy draft. Your natural response to this idea should be to assume that I am crazy. That’s fine. I am aware that I am crazy; insanity allows me to think outside the box. After Marshall’s antics in practice, many Fantasy owners are using the “avoid at all costs” way of thinking. It certainly is understandable because Marshall does not have a track record that would lead you to believe a change of attitude is on the horizon. The trick is trying to understand what is going through Marshall’s head right now, which is no easy task.

Personally, I believe that this pre-season suspension is the best thing that could have happened for Marshall owners. Previously, he was injured, caught up in a judicial case and desperate for a big payday. Like any person, he was distracted by all this extracurricular activity and it really started to jade him. None of this even takes into account the fact that Marshall had lost his star quarterback and is being forced to learn a new offense.

The cynic in all of us says “He is being paid plenty of money to play a game; he needs to just shut up and play.” I am on the same page with everyone making that argument. Realistically, it all had to come to a head at some point and the Broncos are fortunate that it happened in the preseason. If it had not, Marshall owners would be waiting for the other shoe to drop all season long. He was on a collision course with Josh McDaniels and finding some sort of resolution sooner rather than later is ideal.

Look at it this way: it cannot get any worse.

I took a semester of Intro to Psychology in school, so I am obviously somewhat qualified to look into the way that this guy is thinking. With all of the mounting frustration in his life, Marshall lost his sanity and decided to put on one of the worst practice displays in history. I am not arguing that he was right to act like Veruca Salt in pads, but if you take away the fact that he is a professional athlete, you probably know somebody like Marshall. He expected to get everything he wanted immediately.

The driving force behind all this lunacy is money; it’s just simple greed. For as long as Marshall is suspended, not only will he hurt his chances of signing a lucrative contract for next season, he will also lose out on money this season. While he will hardly miss $2,000 for his pre-season suspension, he would lose over $100,000 per regular season game that he misses. All that this suspension really amounts to is his coach, McDaniels, making a stand against rebellion within the organization. Jay Cutler threw a fit and he got exactly what he wanted; why wouldn’t Marshall try the same thing?

McDaniels’ problem is that he set a precedent for acquiescing demands from his players and now he is trying to right that mistake. Marshall gambled that his temper tantrum would result in the Broncos giving in once again, but it turned out to be a horrible miscalculation.

The night after his foolishness in practice, Marshall told ESPN’s Trey Wingo that he acted out in frustration and just wanted a fresh start with the Broncos. Maybe I am just extremely gullible, but I believe that he will not be a problem again this season. Members of the media might tell you differently when Marshall is reinstated to the Bronco roster, but this guy needs to play. There is no chance in hell he gets his payday if he is unwilling to play under his current contract.

As it is, the lucrative contract Marshall expects is a long shot at best. If Marshall expects to be paid like the star wide receiver that he is, he will have to drop all the baggage like Randy Moss did in New England, and show that he can become a team player. NFL owners have no problem paying for talent (Michael Vick got a contract less than a month after he was officially released from prison), so Marshall has not destroyed his chances of getting the Greg Jennings’-like contract he desires. 

If there is just one person (just one) advising him that has any semblance of how the NFL works, Marshall will shut up and get back on the field.

Some Fantasy owners are acting like it is the end of the world that Marshall is missing the preseason. He’s actually getting a vacation, a chance to clear his head, and time to work out on his own schedule. For anyone that has ever seen Marshall, you know that his body is clearly his temple and he will not be sitting and watching television for these two weeks. By the time the preseason is over, he’ll be itching to get back on the field and should become a sponge with the new system.

I do not begin to presume that he will be a key factor in Week One, but remember that he did not even play last year in Week One and still ended up with over 100 receptions. Kyle Orton is not Cutler, but he’s also not as horrible as some people make him out to be. Last year, Marshall was targeted over 170 times and he caught just over 100 of those passes. That means about 40 per cent of the throws towards him resulted in incomplete passes.

No matter what you think of Orton, even he can get the ball to Marshall half the time. You should not expect 100 receptions again, nor should you expect 170 targets, but you cannot expect those numbers from any receiver that is available in the fifth round, where Marshall has been going since his suspension.

The beauty of acquiring Marshall is his No. 1 wide receiver upside. By the time you draft him, you will likely already have your stud receiver and possibly even your No. 2 receiver. If you only use two active receivers in your league, he makes for a phenomenal flex player. If he bottoms out, you will hopefully have struck gold with a later draft pick or a waiver wire all-star.

It’s easy to throw these theories at you, but it all means nothing if you don’t see proof that I have faith in the theory. My proof comes from the RotoRob Regulars league. One of the owners in the league had a real life (whatever that is) conflict with the draft time, so he was “stuck” with Marshall. When he expressed his displeasure at acquiring the malcontent, I jumped on the opportunity to bring him into the fold. With Anquan Boldin as my No. 1 and Chad Johnson (I am bothered by the whole Ochocinco thing) as my No. 2, Marshall represents a guy that I would use in my flex.

In order to obtain Marshall, I traded the very capable Lee Evans. Evans is about the same age as Marshall, has elite speed, and will benefit from more single-coverage with Terrell Owens playing on the opposite side. He’s a nice player, but we kind of know who he is at this point. With Evans having Trent Edwards at quarterback and a sieve for an offensive line, the upside of Marshall outweighs him in my eyes.

In spite of my faith in Marshall, there are plenty of signs that indicate he just “doesn’t get it.” Rumour has it that in high school he quit on his basketball team, much like he quit on the Broncos in practice last week. This type of character issues scared away more prestigious college football programs and landed Marshall at the lesser known University of Central Florida for his collegiate experience. After proving to be a man among boys in college, he still was unable to convince teams that he was worth a first round pick.

Marshall clearly possesses first-round talent and is one of the most physically gifted wide receivers in football today. If a team were willing to give Denver a third round pick today, they could probably acquire this No. 1 receiver, but the baggage remains too heavy for most teams. Marshall is a certifiable game changer, yet his attitude has caused him to become nothing more than an enigma.

Since history tends to repeat itself, it’s no wonder that general managers are not interested in making the gamble. However, the difference between a general manager and a Fantasy owner is quite significant. You’re playing to win this year, but if you fall short, you’ll be able to draft again next season. A general manager would have to tie his job to Marshall, and if it does not work out he could very well find himself unemployed. But if you’re truly looking to win a simple Fantasy league, Marshall’s talent versus his average draft position offers tremendous upside.

So sit down at that bar and take your chances with Megan Fox. You just might get lucky.

The results from Friday’s one day free-for-all Draftbug Blogger Invitational are in and I managed a mid-pack finish. Congratulations to Lester’s Legends who ended their day in first with 68 points and a slim one-point victory over the Sports Idiot crew. I totaled 45 points, good for a share of seventh place in the 12-team event.

The top scoring pitchers for the day were:

Felix Hernandez - 34
Ubaldo Jimenez – 31
Tim Lincecum – 24
Carlos Zambrano – 23
Clay Buchholz – 22

On offense, the top performers were:

Brian McCann – 14
Albert Pujols – 12
Orlando Cabrera – 10
Mark Teixeira – 10
Adam Jones – 9
Chase Utley – 8

I decided that Buchholz was just too much of a bargain to pass on at starting pitcher and then converted those dollar savings into Hanley Ramirez who promptly earned me the grand total of two points. I built strong up the middle with Utley and Joe Mauer in addition to Ramirez and then went cheap on my outfield and that pretty much doomed me. Franklin Gutierrez was a solid pick who earned me six points, but Andrew McCutchen and Michael Cuddyer amassed the whopping total of minus three points and it was all over. I should have spent a bit more time researching, but with the point scoring system in place, strikeout pitching is a must in this format. Lincecum earned 24 points and that was without getting the win, which is worth an additional 10 points.

It was an interesting day and a great learning experience so I’d have to recommend Draftbug for those interested in getting that one-day Fantasy fix. Thanks to Alex from Draftbug for the invite and we wish him continued good fortunes with the site.

On Friday, I’ll be competing against 11 other bloggers in the Second Blogger Fantasy Baseball Invitational Contest at Draftbug.

For those who aren’t familiar with Draftbug contests, the concept is simple — Fantasy baseball contests lasting just one day. For those that want to play the game, but aren’t prepared to make the long-term commitment it is certainly an interesting option. Each participant picks a team of players within a salary cap, and wins (or loses) based on the performance of their players in that night’s games. Cash contests range from $1 up to $55, and a freeroll (with no entry fee and small cash prizes) is offered every day.

The format allows players to obsess over all the same details as in full season salary cap games (park, opponent, lefty/right matchups, home/away splits, weather, injuries, etc.), while not imposing any future time commitments on participants beyond the current day’s contests. One and you’re done!

The format we’re using in this instance basically mimics that of the daily freerolls, where the top five finishers each win $1, which can then be used to enter real money contests on future days. The contest participants are as follows.

Alex – Daily Baseball Data
Sean – 27 Pitches
Dave H. – Rotoguru2
Dave R. – Dinks and Dunks
Charlie – FantasyBaseball 365
Josh – Future of Fantasy
Jay – Cardinals Front Office
Ryan – Lesters Legends
Mark – Poker Bankroll Blog
Tim – RotoRob
Troy – Roto Savants
Carl – Five Tool Fantasy Baseball

Stay tuned for the final results which will be posted tomorrow and a brief strategy discussion. Good luck to all the participants in this one day free-for-all at Draftbug.

Are you ready for some more football?

The National Football League hasn’t given up on the idea of expanding the regular season by one or two games to a 17- or 18-game schedule.

“The idea has merit, I think,” NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said on Friday.

The plan calls for the elimination of two pre-season games – who would have a problem with that? – and the addition of one or two more regular season games.

A proposal is expected to be sent to team owners perhaps as early as May.

The big drawback to this plan is that the Super Bowl will be pushed back to mid-February, when it will have to compete with the Daytona 500, the NBA All-Star Game and – when applicable — the Winter Olympics.

But Goodell doesn’t believe this will be a problem. In fact, he doesn’t think fans can get enough pigskin action.

“We have not found a saturation point for pro football, which is a good thing. I don’t want to be around if we do,” he said.

The plan calls for each team to play a pair of pre-season tilts in August, have an off week on the Labour Day weekend, and then start the regular season. Each team would still get one bye week during the season and the traditional extra week between the conference championships and the Super Bowl would stay. It’s been suggested that the Pro Bowl would slot into that week, but that’s an idea rife with potential disaster.

Whether the expanded schedule means that more than the current 12 teams will make the postseason is still up for discussion.

We’ll see how the NFLPA reacts to this proposal, but one group that is definitely ecstatic about this proposition is the betting community – this is serious green in their pocket.

Good old Goodell – dreaming up economic bailouts for the bookie.

An interesting consequence of an increased schedule will be that all the single-season records will be in jeopardy. Will we think less of the man who topples Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105 yards rushing in a season if he does it in a schedule that’s 12.5 per cent longer? How about Dan Marino’s 5,084 yards passing in a season? How long until a healthy Tom Brady breaks that? Can Randy Moss shatter his own record of 23 receiving TDs, set in 2007?

We asked a couple of our football writers what they thought of this plan and whether it would affect Fantasy owners.

From a fan’s perspective, Buck Davidson thinks the fact that football season will now run until pitchers and catchers report is a “beautiful thing.”

However, he adds, from a Fantasy standpoint, more games could mean some teams lock up playoff positions a week earlier, meaning two games of rest/cameo appearances for the studs rather than one. It could also mean a faster hook earlier in the season when the game is out of hand (in either direction). “I can’t see it affecting my draft strategy a great deal – though I might shy away a bit from the older player if it’s a toss-up between him and a youngster,” Davidson says.

Derek Jones and Andy Goldstein have often written about the “370 curse” (how running backs are affected in the long-term after seasons of 370 or more carries) and that very consideration, Jones says, “is one of the reasons I don’t like expanding the schedule.”

For coaches who can’t figure how to balance carries, Jones says, it’ll probably shorten backs’ careers — especially those who play in the playoffs.

“More football equals greater probability for injury,” he reasons. “Also, it’s going to further muddy the running back waters. You’ll see the continuation of RBBC as well.”

Tell us how you really feel, Derek.

“I don’t like it.”

There you have it, Fantasy football owners: an expanded schedule, while fantastic from a fan standpoint, means expanded headaches managing your roster over the course of the season.

Parity — it’s great for competition, great for keeping teams in the hunt, great for entertaining and meaningful games. But it’s not so great for fantasy.

If you’re doing a fantasy league for the Stanley Cup playoffs, there’s no easy way to go about it. Every series has reasonable arguments for which team will win. Yes, even that Detroit-Columbus matchup offers plenty of reasons why the first-year post-season team can win, and why it wouldn’t necessarily be an upset.

All in all, the closest thing to an easy series is the high-flying Boston Bruins taking on the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs struggled for long stretches this season and it’s a minor miracle they pulled things together. However, if you caught the final game between the Habs and the Bruins, you know the long rivalry between these two could definitely amp things up. In most cases, if you looked strictly at record, injuries, and players, this would be the only cakewalk series to predict. With decades of history to motivate, it won’t be so easy.

Thus, the big question remains: how the hell do you pick a fantasy playoff roster when a seven and eight seeds aren’t necessarily underdogs?

There are two schools of thought with playoff picks. You can either spread your drafting equally around and try to amass all your points in the first two rounds or you can load up on two teams you think will go far. I’m typically in favour of the latter — take a few big names from around the league, then stack the underside of your team with the team you think is going furthest. After all, those role players are what wind up winning fantasy leagues and games played becomes a valuable commodity.

That being said, here are some tips to approaching what will be the tightest first round in recent memory.

1. Take reliable playoff performers: Everyone’s due for an off year now and then, but it’s better to get the guy who had a good regular season with a solid playoff history over the spectacular regular season with an awful playoff history. Consistency is key here.

2. Watch for miracle comebacks: A lot of people might have missed the news that came out of Columbus about rookie Derrick Brassard, who might be available for the Blue Jackets early in their series against Detroit. Ditto Paul Kariya, though no one out of St. Louis is saying a thing. These types of guys are great late-round fantasy picks as most people have written them off.

3. Avoid goaltending controversies: Anaheim won’t say if it’s starting Jonas Hiller or Jean-Sebastian Giguere. Either way, whoever is in the net will have a short leash. If there’s no clear-cut number one, stay away — you need every game-played you can get.

4. Remember playing styles: Playoff defense becomes notoriously tougher, and NHL refs seem to forget their whistles at home come April. That means lower scoring games and less power plays. Take that into account when picking teams to draw players from; for example, the freewheeling Washington Capitals might not be as run-and-gun against the defense-first New York Rangers.

5. Look for heroes: Remember last year’s playoffs when R.J. Umberger woke up to be one of the best players on the Philly roster? Those second-line talents can rise to the occasion when defenses focus on top-line players. Most of the time, the guys who become playoff heroes are the ones with a reasonable amount of skill and a whole lot of work ethic.

6. Go with your gut: This year’s playoff field is as wide open as ever. There isn’t necessarily a right way or wrong way to do it; if you have a hunch about something and find the stats to back it up, go for it.

Editor’s Note: Maybe your fantasy hockey team is sucking more than a $10 whore. You’re rapidly losing interest (hell, the other day you found yourself listening to women’s diving on the radio for your sports fix), yet there’s still several weeks left in the season. What to do? Hell, screw your current team and head on over to Draftbug.com, where you can dabble in very short fantasy seasons (how about daily leagues?). Don’t forget to tell the dudes at Draftbug.com that RotoRob sent ya. Every time one of our readers signs up for one of their contests, a box of Skittles arrives on our doorstep. Life is good.

BY ALEX ZELVIN, Draftbug.com

Traffic is beginning to increase on Draftbug. It’s likely that within the next few weeks, larger fantasy hockey contests will be available, with six, 10, 20 or more players in each. To succeed in these, you’ll need to keep one important principle in mind: in large tournaments with top heavy payouts, always use a high variance strategy. In other words, it does you no good to play it safe and go for second place in a winner-take-all contest.

This principle applies to all types of contests or tournaments, whether you’re playing fantasy sports, poker, or anything else. However, it’s easier to apply in some arenas than others. Draftbug fantasy hockey may just be the easiest place to profit from it.

One of the best ways to increase variance in your score in any fantasy contest is to pick players whose scores will be highly correlated. Draftbug hockey uses a scoring system that makes this very easy to do. Picking players who play on the same line is one of the keys. Whenever one scores a goal, the others are likely to get assists. Most of the time, they’re either all going to have good games on the same day, which is the key to running up a high enough score to win a large contest with six or more people entered. Additionally, players are rewarded for their plus/minus, which is generally going to correlate well with whether their goalie scores 15 points for winning the game, and also will have some correlation with the goalies’ success at preventing goals.

So the key to winning at Draftbug hockey is pretty simple: as much as possible, pick linemates and their goalie. Draftbug’s hockey scoring system allows such great correlation between picks, that this strategy should make you a consistent long-term winner.

I offer you just two warnings related to this: The first is that high variance only helps you in large tournaments. In a head-to-head contest, you should simply focus on picking the best team you can, without regard to the correlation among your players’ scores. The second warning is that Draftbug does not allow you to pick all your players from the same team. To maintain its status as fantasy sports rather than gambling, anybody who uses an entire team made up of players from the same team needs to be disqualified. So make sure that you mix at least one player from another team into your squad.

Editor’s Note: Did you miss the boat on joining an NBA fantasy league this fall? No problem-o. Over at Draftbug.com you can hop in whenever you like and play in a fantasy league that features a shorter season. Try daily or weekly leagues. That sure takes the sting out watching your team suck all season after a crappy draft. Go check out Draftbug.com and tell them RotoRob sent you (we get free Popsicles for every one who signs up!).

BY ALEX ZELVIN, Draftbug.com

I realize that most of you are primarily interested in fantasy baseball, but since it’s basketball season, I thought I’d share some fantasy hoops strategy to help you win at Draftbug and other daily fantasy basketball contests (such as Snapdraft). My approach to this (and it’s worth mentioning that I haven’t had time to try this out yet) is fairly similar to the approach I used to win the 2008 Rotohog Baseball contest. I’d recommend doing the following in MS-Excel:

1. Calculate player statistics in all scoring categories per minute played. This gives you an idea how good the player is when they’re actually in the game.

2. Estimate expected minutes played for all players. Assuming that you don’t follow basketball closely, I’d probably use something like the average of the last five or 10 games. You’re going to miss out on players filling in for very short periods when someone is injured (and those probably are the best values), but at least you’ll also avoid giving a high ranking to most players who were filling in and will be pushed to the bench by returning players. Giving someone who won’t play a top rating is a much worse mistake to make here than underrating someone who will play more than expected. For instance, don’t put too much stock into the fact that Daniel Gibson played 32 minutes Tuesday night in the Cavs’ win over the Raptors. First of all, it was a blowout win. Secondly, with Sasha Pavlovic sidelined with the flu, Boobie got extra run. That won’t happen consistently, so don’t let it fool you into overinflating his value.

3. Make an adjustment to play statistics based on whether the player is home or away. I would add 2 per cent for home players and subtract 2 per cent for players on the road. That may be slightly under adjusting, but in general I’d rather do this than overshoot with my adjustments.

4. Make an adjustment for opponent. You can get fancy with this and try to use statistics for how opponents affect specific statistics or players at specific positions’ stats, but for starters just calculate the impact specific teams have on opponents’ scoring, and adjust projections by that amount. So if a given team allows 95 points per game vs. a league average of 100 points per game, then adjust their opponents’ projections in all categories down the difference (in this case, 5 per cent, so your calculation will be projections x 0.95).

5. Calculate a points projection using Draftbug’s scoring system based on the statistical projection you’ve done.

6. Select a team that balances solid undervalued players based on your points projection with top rated players (who may or may not be underpriced).

You can refine this strategy to be more precise, but I’m fairly certain that it will be a winning one, even in the relatively crude form described above.

With Spring Training drawing to a rapid close (and given that we’ve already had a couple games that count, we’re damn confused about whether the exhibition season is ongoing or not), a quick look at some of those early sleeper candidates and potential waiver wire acquisitions would be in order.

1. Franklin Gutierrez, CLE, OF – The job is his to lose heading into the 2008 season and thus far, he has most certainly reaffirmed that the Tribe made a solid decision. That .395 batting average combined with two homers and ten RBI, suggest he’s ready to enjoy a very solid start to the 2008 campaign. Drafted either very late or not at all, the potential is most certainly there for Gutierrez to put a 20-HR, 15-SB season this year.

2. Matt Diaz, ATL, OF – With the Spring Training struggles and subsequent demotion of Brandon Jones, it looks like we’ll finally get to see Matt Diaz batting against both lefties and righties this year. If he can hit those righties half as good as the lefties, there could be some pleasant surprises in store in 2008. With the outfield position being not as deep as we’ve seen in the past, Diaz could turn into a rather respectable late round choice.

3. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU, SP – Is there any reasonable explanation for those home/road splits in 2007? With 158 stikeouts and a 2.94 ERA at Minute Maid, it certainly bears at least a second glance. Any improvement in those road splits and Rodriguez could be a very nice addition to the back end of your rotation this year.

4. Masahide Kobayashi, CLE, RP – Masahide Kobayashi comes to the Tribe bullpen this spring with some very solid credentials. Those 200-plus career saves in Japan, combined with Smokin’ Joe Borowski’s ability to turn three-run saves into one-run saves, makes this a most interesting situation. I guess the question would be, if and when Borowski fails, do they move Rafael Betancourt out of the set-up role he’s been very successful in or take advantage of the proven closer ability in Kobayashi? I’m betting on Kobayashi at this stage.

5. Alexei Ramirez, CWS, 2B/SS/OF – Heading into camp this spring it was almost a foregone conclusion that the former star of the Cuban National program would be starting 2008 at Triple-A. With Danny Richar on the mend for the next four-to-six weeks, and Juan Uribe on and off waivers, that leaves us with Pablo Osuna. Those 17 Spring Training RBI to date and the ability to play multiple positions, could lead Ramirez to fill a super-sub role for both Ozzie Guillen and your fantasy team.

6. Chris Synder, ARZ, C – Snyder managed to have himself a very solid second half in 2007 and thus far has carried that play over to Spring Training. There are already rumblings in the desert that Snyder might be forcing his way higher in the batting order. For a player that is either getting drafted late as an end play, or not at all, there are reasons for optimism heading into 2008.

7. Eugenio Velez, SF, 2B – Come on San Francisco, find a place for this guy to get some at bats this year. He’s currently the offensive leader in just about every category this spring and those 14 stolen bases are looking very solid. This could be a huge bargain for those looking to pad those stolen base numbers in ‘08.

8. Pedro Feliz, PHI, 3B – Now Feliz isn’t exactly a spring chicken, but how many leagues is he currently sitting unowned in right about now? The move to Philly this year could potentially move Pedro up a notch or two and possibly into the 25-85 range, making him a serviceable option at the corner for this year.

9. Carlos Gomez, MIN, OF – After a very slow start this spring, Carlos Gomez has turned it up a notch and looks to be starting 2008 in the lead-off role. The main prize in the Johan Santana sweepstakes has already swiped ten bases this spring and for those looking for some serious speed he could be the answer. Just be wary there will be undoubtedly be some bumps in the road.

10. Jason Bergmann, WAS, SP – If Bergmann can remain healthy and continues to limit those base on balls, he could be an option in deeper formats this year. Someone is going to win some games in Washington this year and Bergmann could very well be that man.

I’ve been a very big proponent this year of drafting and filling those outfield slots early and wanted to give myself an opportunity to see how the other half lived. Drafting in the ninth slot gave me the perfect chance to try a new strategy and, with no hesitation, I chose Johan Santana and we were off.

Here’s my round-by-round picks with the overall number of the selection in parenthesis:

1. Johan Santana (9) – Time to move outside my comfort zone and draft the best starting pitcher in the game.

2. B.J. Upton (22) – Power/speed combo at both 2B and outfield was just too tough to pass on.

3. Adam Dunn (39) – The last of the big power outfielders available.

4. Eric Byrnes (52) – Stolen bases flying off the board and had to get me some. I didn’t want to have to click on Juan Pierre in about four rounds.

5. Carlos Zambrano (69) – New contract, new attitude = top ten starting pitcher in 2008.

6. Adrian Beltre (82) – Did I mention yet that I really like Beltre for 2008?

7. Ryan Zimmerman (99) – Okay, let’s shorten up third base a bit. We are using two Utility slots so why not?

8. Kosuke Fukudome (112) – A little early for Kosuke, but I was beginning to see all those former NPB guys going off the board and nary one heading my way. The thought of having to try and defend a Kei Igawa pick at the end forced my hand a bit here.

9. Kenji Johjima (129) – Okay, a trend is developing, but with using only one catcher slot, I might as well get a decent one. Note to self: Kaz Matsui is way beyond a reach for Round Ten.

10. Matt Capps (142) – Just about the right time to acquire that first closer. How many went this round, only seven? Getting just a bit too close to Joe Borowski time for my liking.

11. Billy Butler (159) – I’m hoping to be able to say “The Butler did It” in about five months. 1B and OF qualifier for 2008 is a nice bonus.

12. Ian Snell (172) – Decent WHIP, ERA and stikeouts. Wins? Hmmm, a bit shaky in Steeltown.

13. Brandon Lyon (189) – Has the job for now and still avoiding the Joe Borowski button.

14. Aaron Hill (202) – I now have room to slide Upton into my outfield. Hill is a very underrated pick heading into 2008. I really wanted Khalil Greene as my shortstop here, but my friend Andy took care of that one for me.

15. Stephen Drew (219) – The batting average better climb or my lack of middle infield could be ugly.

16. Mark Buehrle (232) – Steady as she goes. Nothing spectacular, but he’s a steady contributor across the board.

17. Franklin Gutierrez (249) – One of my favourite late round sleeper picks. I’ll take a 20-80 dude with 15 stolen base potential in Round 17.

18. Carlos Villanueva (262) – He will win the gig and contribute 15 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA. Yes, the meds have now kicked in!

19. Masahide Kobayashi (279) – One of several reasons I didn’t want to be picking Borowski.

20. Scott Rolen (292) – I’m betting on a rebound in Hogtown.

21. Nick Johnson (309) – With Butler slotted in at first base, a back-up plan is not a bad idea.

22. Jon Garland (322) – With the ongoing injuries in the Anaheim rotation, Garland could be the ace by the time this gets to print.

23. Chris Ray (339) – Purely a strategic move here. We have a DL slot and I plan on using it early to get me an extra pick as soon as the season is underway.

All things considered I’m relatively happy with my results. My starting pitching is solid and the bullpen should leave me mid-pack in the saves category. By acquring Hill and Johnson late and the flexibility offered in both Upton and Butler, my outfield has a bit of depth and the stolen bases should be adequate.

Good fortunes to all this year and again my thanks for a great draft!

To help prepare you for your upcoming baseball draft, we’ve prepared some very top ten lists, which will be unveiled over the next few days.

1. Ryan Braun: I like Braun, just not as high on the totem pole as we’re currently seeing him reside. When I look at a late first round/early second round pick, I want a little bit more history. Ponder this one for just a second. Braun is currently going one slot ahead of top outfielder Carl Crawford according to the most recent Average Draft Reports at Mock Draft Central. What combination of players provides the best scenario? Crawford and Adrian Beltre, or Braun and the three closest outfielders to Beltre in the ADP rankings in Jermaine Dye, Juan Pierre, or Delmon Young?

2. Hunter Pence: Pence most certainly has the potential, but we are talking about a player that has never stolen more than 17 bases at any level in his relatively short career. Granted, this certainly doesn’t mean it won’t or can’t occur, but seeing him currently being drafted ahead of Torii Hunter, Dan Haren, Chipper Jones, Carlos Zambrano and Ian Kinsler just doesn’t cut the mustard for me.

3. Derek Jeter: The face of the Yankees is supporting his current draft position based on a combination of past performance and his real-life value. We play fantasy ball and his contributions other than the batting average have fallen into the marginal levels. Drafting Jeter five slots ahead of Troy Tulowitzki just isn’t a solid play.

4. Any closer drafted before Round Ten: I’m simply not a believer in drafting for the closer slot early. With a position as volatile as this one is, the better gamble is in those second- and third-tier closers as compared to the Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez types. Does your team really need more than one (J.J.) Putz at the helm?

5. Aaron Rowand: Can we all say “career year?” If so, and you want the joy of paying for it, Aaron’s your man. Let’s just take a quick look at the past three years.
2005 – .270 BA, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 16 SB
2006 – .262 BA, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 10 SB
2007 – .309 BA, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 6 SB

Moving to an offensive jugger”not” in the Giants should do nothing but improve the odds on a repeat of that not-so stellar 2005 season.

6. Jorge Posada: A peak year at the age of 36 does not bode well for success heading into 2008. When was the last time that Posada broke .290 in batting average? The answer would be never, and to expect anything remotely close to that 2007 batting average of .338 would fall into the major reach department. At this stage of his career, a Ryan Zimmerman or Shane Victorino, both in the same ADP range as Posada, have the chance to provide better value, as does a late round gamble at catcher.

7. Dontrelle Willis: A trend has developed here and a move to the Detroit Tigers should not help. The ERA and WHIP keep climbing upwards and the strikeouts keep falling. Stay away; the trend is going to continue especially in light of the fact that Willis now faces the designated hitter and not the pitcher. American League hitters are anxiously looking forward to teeing off on the D-Train in 2008.

8. Travis Hafner: I had the opportunity to watch Hafner flail away in person last summer, and it was not pretty. He looked totally lost last year and his numbers most certainly reflected it. A rebound can’t be ruled out, but I’d rather be gambling with a Carlos Pena or Adam Dunn, if I was looking for that big bopper in the 3-4-5 rounds.

9. Alex Rios: A top 30 player? Not on my draft lists. I certainly believe there is some potential for improvement, but with an ADP that’s currently at 29, is this value or overhype? I’m betting on the second choice here. Having never exceeeded 17 stolen bases means he is not a five-category stud. I’d be looking at a Corey Hart or Nick Markakis long before Rios would be part of my starting outfield.

10. Juan Pierre: If you’re looking for stolen bases and batting average, Juan Pierre is your man. Hmm, did I fail to mention that things are getting awful crowded in the Dodgers’ outfield? Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Andruw Jones and Pierre with no designated hitter, means someone is gonna suck up a few games on the bench. No thanks Juan, I’ll find my stolen bases elsewhere.

After getting in those first 40 or 50 mock drafts, it was high time to actually start playing the game for real. The 2008 fantasy season commenced for me on February 24 this year, my earliest start ever. The “Fantasy Writers League” is a 12-team league of industry writers in a standard 5×5 format. I’ve been touting the “All Outfield, All the Time” strategy for a while now and it was time to put all that practice to work. I ended up picking in the ninth slot and decided that I’d forego my usual reach on Carl Crawford and go with the stud of all stud second base types, Chase Utley.

The plan was for Crawford to hopefully fall to me on the way back in the second round. I gambled and lost as Crawford didn’t fall, so it was off to work on Plan “B.” My usual strategy is to lock up one of the 40-plus stolen base guys early, but this time around a more balanced approach to stolen bases would be required. After acquiring Utley, I moved forward, attempting to fill the outfield early and to vulture my pitching in the mid to later rounds. Overall, I’m relatively happy with this first effort. My pitching is going to be somewhat of a struggle, but I’ve always felt confident that the waiver wire can, and will be my friend.

The following are some random observations that I think should be of interest to all:

1. Starting pitching seemed to go a bit faster than in my practice mocks. Be very careful it doesn’t pass you by.

2. Stolen bases continue to fly off the board early. Do you really want to be the guy picking up Juan Pierre somewhere in the sixth round?

3. Give yourself ample time to review the ranking system of the site you’re using for your draft, or input one of your preferred choice. Most of us have done our practice and research and quite possibly a slew of mock drafts, but until you actually see the draft interface you are using there are always those little hidden gems lurking that you want to be able to take advantage of. Brandon Lyon is buried somewhere in the middle of nowhere in the Yahoo! rankings and most certainly could have some great value as a late-round closer pick. Again, I can’t reinforce enough getting to the site early and doing the necessary homework.

Below, you will find the summary of my draft, with the overall pick number in brackets.

1. Chase Utley, 2B (9)
2. Grady Sizemore, OF (16)
3. Victor Martinez, C,1B (33)
4. Nick Markakis, OF (40)
5. Chris Young, OF (57)
6. Ian Kinsler, 2B (64)
7. Brad Hawpe, OF (81)
8. Adrian Beltre, 3B (88)
9. Roy Halladay, SP (105)
10. Matt Cain, SP (112)
11. Orlando Cabrera, SS (129)
12. Kosuke Fukudome, OF (136)
13. Carlos Delgado, 1B (153)
14. B.J. Ryan, RP (160)
15. Kevin Gregg, RP (177)
16. Tom Gorzelanny, SP (184)
17. Gil Meche, SP (201)
18. Josh Willingham, OF (208)
19. A.J. Pierzynski, C (225)
20. Ian Kennedy, SP (232)
21. Hiroki Kuroda, SP (249)
22. Scott Rolen, 3B (256)
23. Mark Ellis, 2B (273)

Bench:

Rajai Davis, OF (280)
Shawn Hill, SP (297)
Matt Guerrier, RP (304)

A couple of weeks ago, the fine folks over at Mock Draft Central assembled their first “Expert” mock of the New Year, with yours truly being fortunate enough to pick up an invite. My apologizes for the lateness of this draft summary, but unfortunately I got both a bit long-winded and a tad light on the number of fingers required to type this thing. (Note to self: when falling off the back of a truck, the wrist does not work well in cushioning the blow.)

Well, better late than never I say! As you can see, the list of participants was a veritable who’s who from the fantasy world. The draft order:

1. David Gonos - CBS Sports
2. Andy Behrens - Yahoo!
3. Derek Carty - The Hardball Times
4. Jason Pliml - Mock Draft Central
5. Chris Bracke - Mock Draft Central
6. Brent Grooms - Baseball HQ
7. Ray Flowers - Baseball Guys
8. Tim McLeod - RotoRob
9. Nate Stephens - Rotoworld
10. Peter Kreutzer - AskRotoman
11. Mike Kuchera - Fantasy Baseball Express
12. Mike Inglett - Sport Fanatics

I have a tendency when formulating my draft strategy to revert to what I call the “safe” mode, or my comfort zone. I have a history of placing a very high value on steals, vulturing saves and looking at starting pitching in the middle to late rounds. A lot of these philosophies stem from my play in larger 15- and 20-team formats, where I find these strategies work exceptionally well.

For this draft, a 12-team, 5×5 format, I decided to work towards a different goal. Picking eighth, the plan was to look for Chase Utley with my first pick, grab Johan Santana with the fourth pick in Round Two and follow up with Victor Martinez in Round Three. With catcher and second base being relatively weak positions in terms of depth heading into 2008, I wanted to look at position scarcity early as a strategy.

Ah, the best laid plans of mice and men. Utley went early, Peter Kreutzer shattered my dreams by grabbing Santana, and both Martinez and Russell Martin went before my third pick. Okay, so that didn’t work. So let’s build ourselves a power/speed package and head back to familiar ground with the pitching later on, my safe zone.

Again I can’t stress enough when drafting the value of having that “Plan B” ready and the ability to change horses in the middle of the stream. That and the Boy Scout’s motto “Be Prepared,” should be part of every fantasy player’s vocabulary. With that in mind, let’s move forward and give this the old once over.

Round One – As mentioned, Utley went a bit higher than I expected (fifth), with Albert Pujols sliding into seventh. No big surprises as I watched all the big stolen base guys taken off the board. Utley in the eighth slot was apparently a bit of a reach on my behalf, so Matt Holliday it was.

Round Two – Okay, Santana is gone, so let’s pick up some five-category talent in Grady Sizemore. I was a bit surprised that he fell to me, but I certainly was not going to complain. I found the fact that Vladimir Guerrero fell to the No. 21 slot a bit odd. I believe it is more of a statement reflecting the need for speed and those seven third basemen and shortstops moving in the first round rather than a perception that Guerrero’s skill set is deteriorating.

Round Three – There I was, mulling over Curtis Granderson, Alex Rios and one of my personal favourites, Nick Markakis, with my third pick. I wanted the stolen base potential so Granderson it was. It would seem that Nate Stephens and Kreutzer were on the same page as me, as Rios and Markakis went with the next two picks. No major surprises here as the top two catchers went early in this round. I thought one might fall to me, but it wasn’t happening.

Round Four – At this stage, I was off to a decent start on offense but was still looking for a bit more power. With three outfielders on board already can I make a move on a fourth and still build a decent team? I think I can, so I proceeded to grab Adam Dunn in the fourth. The worst that can happen here is I’ve now built a top-tier outfield and hopefully shorted the position a bit, allowing me some bargains later on. My power and speed were now in good shape.

Round Five – Time to head back towards that original train of thought with regards to position scarcity. Robinson Cano went with the first pick in Round Five, so with the top four second basemen now gone, I reached a bit and took Ian Kinsler. After Kinsler, the dropoff gets rather pronounced in my opinion and I really like that 25-home run, 25-stolen base potential. The first closer went this round, Jonathan Papelbon, and I really liked the Corey Hart pick by Brent Grooms in the 54th spot overall.

Round Six – With the top two catchers gone, it was time to fill that slot with Brian McCann. I think the 20-90 potential in a relatively weak position works just fine.

Round Seven – Traditionally, I’ve been very high on gambling on the closer slot and for this mock I wanted to get a top-tier closer to shore up the position. With Papelbon gone, I went with the Mariners’ J.J. Putz. The outfield was basically done, I was strong up the middle and had a top-tier closer, so I was starting to really like the way my team was falling into place.

Round Eight – The pitching started moving a bit this round with three starters and two closers taken off the board. I went with one of my favourite picks at this stage of the draft and grabbed Adrian Beltre. There’s nothing wrong with 25-100 potential and 10 or so stolen bases at the corner. Remember, Beltre has seemingly been around forever, yet is only 28 and heading into what could be potentially his peak power years. I really like the Vernon Wells pick here by Chris Bracke. A healthy Vernon in the spring makes this pick a potential steal.

Round Nine – Time to start building a pitching staff, so Kelvim Escobar it was. As long as he can stay healthy, he’ll certainly provide adequate numbers across the board.

Round 10 – Back down the ladder, and I grabbed another of my favourite picks to click in 2008, Matt Cain. Don’t let that won/loss record dissuade you; those peripherals are solid and any semblance of either offense or breaks and it wouldn’t shock me to see 15 wins this coming year. Finally we get to the round where the pitching starts to fly, with eight of the 12 picks used on hurlers.

Round 11 – I happened to be following the first base situation fairly close and it was getting to be that time, so I reached a bit and took James Loney. With my cumulative offense, I like the BA potential and I could sacrifice a bit of power. I really didn’t want to be the owner of Carlos Delgado and that .250 BA.

Round 12 – I went back to the pitching here, taking Chad Billingsley, and hoping he can further build on that excellent second half of 2007. Given a full year in the rotation, 15 wins with 180 Ks is a distinct possibility.

Round 13 – Time to continue working on that starting rotation and I just couldn’t pass on the risk/reward of grabbing the Brew Crew’s Ben Sheets. If Sheets can stay healthy and, yes, it’s a huge “if,” getting a potential “ace” at this stage is a steal. I really like the Kosuke Fukudome pick by Andy Behrens at this stage. In Round 13, how many players have that .300 BA, 20-80, 10 SB potential?

Round 14 – Coming back down the ladder it was time for me to fill in the outfield and I went with some youth with decent upside in Jacoby Ellsbury. I like the potential for 25-30 SB with a decent BA. It was time for that young talent to start moving as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Joba Chamberlain, and Joey Votto went with the next three picks.

Round 15 – Time for my first serious faux pas of the evening. I reached a bit and took Carlos Marmol of the Cubs. Not that this isn’t what I believe to be a decent gamble based on those 2007 numbers and the very real possibility of him closing this year, but there were other closers available with much lower risks. Mike Kuchera made a very nice grab this round when he went with a much underrated Aaron Hill at second base — a very solid choice at second base this late in the draft.

Round 16 – I’d been watching the SS position intently since early on and made the decision to sit back a bit here and let things fall to me in the later rounds. Jhonny Peralta was still available and at this stage of the draft that 25-75 potential just couldn’t be passed on. With both the depth in this category and quality at the top end, some very nice bargains can be had for those with a bit of patience. There was another great grab by Kuchera this round when he plucked Gary Sheffield at No. 182 overall.

Round 17 – Someone in 2008 has to be the one driving in Hanley Ramirez, so why not Josh Willingham? Adding a bit to the power base this late is certainly not going to hurt. Six of the 12 picks this round were starting pitchers as it was time for most to start filling in the gaps.

Round 18 – It was time to round out my bullpen, so I took Eric Gagne. Here’s hoping in 2008 we see the Texas Ranger Gagne and not the Red Sox model. Again, the chase for pitching continues, with nine more pitchers taken this round.

Round 19 – The end is drawing near. It was time to bolster my rotation and I was sitting there with Zack Greinke ready to roll, when Ray Flowers grabbed him right in front of me. Nice scoop, Ray; that one hurt a bit. I went with option two, and Mark Buehrle was mine. It was the outfielders’ turn to be taken from the board, with six going this round.

Round 20 – It was time to gamble on some youth, so I went with Evan Longoria to fill out the corner infield slot. If one is going to roll the dice, these are most certainly the rounds to be doing it in.

Round 21 – It was time to go with a very steady and conservative play to fill out the middle infield slot, so I grabbed Freddy Sanchez. My speed/power base is pretty decent so that .300 BA this late works. There were more late gambles in the starting pitching as the elderly trio of Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Curt Schilling all went this round.

Round 22 – We’re down to those last two slots, and I needed a back-up catcher for McCann and one more starting pitcher to round out the rotation. About this time, Kate was pulling a fresh load of chocolate chip cookies out of the oven. The cookies won this round without a doubt, as I ended up with Johnny Estrada filling out my catcher slot. You did it to me again, Andy, grabbing Hiroki Kuroda as we head for home.

Round 23 – I needed one more starting pitcher to round out my effort and Wandy Rodriguez it was. If Wandy can ever figure out how to pitch on the road this could be a very nice addition to my rotation. Those 150 or so Ks will certainly be an asset.

You can find the complete draft results here.

Summary

Overall, I’m rather happy with the results. I was a bit light on my usual five or six former NPB players, but nonetheless, I wound up with a good balance of power and speed with what could be a decent batting average. I managed to build a nicely balanced team even after taking four outfielders in those first four rounds. Sure, it was a bit of a different strategy, but one that I think merits a close look as the outfield does get a little short heading into those later rounds.

As far as pitching is concerned, this draft just reinforced the fact that in a mixed, 12-team, 5×5 format, building the offense early and using the mid to the later rounds for the pitching is a solid play. I took my first starting pitcher in Round Nine, and believe I have at least a mid-level rotation.

In conclusion, my thanks to all the many skilled participants and the fine folks over at Mock Draft Central; great job as always. Kudos to both Paul Greco and Lenny Melnick for both the live podcast of the draft itself and the follow up analysis. Just remember Lenny, Freddie’s the Man!

For most of us, another fantasy baseball season has already begun. Of course, for some of us it simply never ends.

The countless hours of research commence as we begin to assemble our best laid plans for the 2008 season. We rank, re-rank, start listing all those deep sleepers and scour our favourite sites for all the latest scoops that might give us that “edge” we are all looking for.

Do you realize that in a standard 12-team league, you are looking at pouring all those hours of hard work into approximately 20 minutes of actual player selections on draft day?

The annual draft is the vehicle that leads us into another season and is without a doubt the key to a successful season. You won’t win your league championship at the draft, but you can sure lose it. A large portion of your baseball season hinges on less than one half hour of very crucial decision making.

Over the years, one of the biggest problems I’ve been privy to is not in the ranking or in the research, but the actual mechanics of the draft itself. If you want to be successful, not only is the ability to analyze important, but also the actual mechanics of the draft vehicle itself. To this end, I’m a huge proponent of the practice or mock draft.

A typical 12-team draft with the standard 23 positions and a six-player team bench, might take all of three hours to complete and then you have the next six months to deal with the repercussions. Why, after spending countless hours researching, would you want to stumble through the draft when the opportunities are there to prevent that from occurring?

Work on the actual process of queuing up players and spotting those trends and unique situations that tend to arise during a draft. When that first run on third base occurs, how do you react? See what the world is up to before it passes you by.

We all formulate plans and strategies and the opportunity to actually see how they unravel before you sit down for your league draft is a most invaluable tool. It is much easier to test them and familiarize yourself with the draft mechanics before that first draft, compared to when you’re scrambling to find that sleeper in the 12th round with 20 seconds left on the clock.

I have spent many live drafts practicing the strategies that Roto players today can have access to in a matter of hours. Take advantage of those opportunities to make yourself into a complete and well-rounded player.

Commencing January 27 at 8 p.m. EST, and every Sunday evening for the following five weeks, I’d like to invite all our readers to a Mock Draft over at mockdraftcentral.com. The format will be a 15-team mixed 5×5 league, and it will be set up as RotoRob’s Regulars. Come on over and practice, share some thoughts and ideas, and become that top notch drafter, a skill that will lead you onto victory for the 2008 season.

It’s been a while since I checked in, but the vacation’s over and it’s time to get back to the business that is always at hand — baseball.

First off, let me pass on my congratulations to the Chunichi Dragons on their recent Japan Series triumph. History was made as Daisuke Yamai and Hitoki Iwase combined on a perfect game to wrap up the series four games to one, ending the Dragons’ 53-year drought. It’s a shame most of the mainstream American media missed this historic event, but with the semi-finals of the Celebrity Lawn Dart Championships running at the same time, it’s most understandable. I sense some future venting material coming up here.

Baseball in my world is an ever-evolving and constant project. As one season ends, another starts and this fall has been no different. My NPB research picks up as we near Fantasy Guide time; my keeper league, the NABL, is currently in the midst of a fall dispersal draft, and I’m also working on a research project, attempting to sort through the many mysteries of the large format league. Here at RotoRob.com, I’m currently working on a series of articles that will be rolled out over the next several months dealing with draft preparation. At the same time, we’ll, of course, be taking a pre-season look at the rankings by position.

This past week, I had the privilege of partaking in my first draft of the 2008 season, the annual Creativesports.com mock draft. Curated by Lawr Michaels and hosted by Geoff Stein over at Mock Draft Central, this is a 15-team, mixed, 5X5 draft and hold, snake draft.

I’m a big proponent of doing the homework, but in this case with just a couple of days’ notice, that pretty much went by the wayside. I received my slot the day before the draft and ended up with the No. 3 pick. Being a draft and hold, my first thought was let’s get those stolen bases out of the way pronto. So I deciding to go with the old approach of buy the steals early, work on my starting pitching mid to late rounds, look for bargains in players coming off down years and attempt to vulture my saves at the end.

So there we were on a cold snowy mid-November evening (at least where I was), 15 guys attempting to unveil the secrets to 2008 — a challenging task, to say the least.

When the third pick came up, I was left flipping a coin between Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes, and we were off.

Immediately, my computer moved into cranky mode and a switch to auto made me the proud owner of Ramirez. Not the choice I wanted, but certainly one I was more than happy to live with. With 24 picks before my next kick at the can, normally I’d be queuing up players left, right and centre for future reference. But having been through many drafts and with a cranky computer, I had to steer clear of this tactic. The thought of seeing one of my end plays turning up in the third round did absolutely nothing for me.

After the first round, which saw very few surprises, I happened to glance at pitching and, lo and behold, Johan Santana was still out there — my first clue as to what would be occurring just around the corner. What is happening? Isn’t Santana a top 10 player, or at least first round pick? Heading back down the old ladder, he was still there. Is this just a five-category league?

The old ticker started picking up just a bit as more picks followed and still no one grabbed pitching! Now what do I do if he’s still there at my pick? But ah ” finally — with the 22nd pick, the suspense was over. This was the first big surprise of the evening.

Time for that second pick and with Chone Figgins being out there, I grabbed him and my speed was a done deal. A couple of quick picks later and then it was back to me for Round Three. Being a 15-team league, with two catchers required, it was time to take care of that position, so I wisely grabbed Victor Martinez.

Again, I had the long wait and with my Round Four pick, took Nick Markakis. I like this kid, and after coming off a solid year, the potential upside is there.

That brought us to Round Five, and time to gamble, so I grabbed Vernon Wells. Last year, in most leagues, Vernon was a solid Round Two pick, and with a healthy shoulder heading into the spring, I’m counting on a bounce back to the 2005-06 level, making this both a decent gamble and potential big bonus.

Again I had that 22 pick wait and I took the time to start perusing rosters to see if anything jumped out at me. Did it ever! With five rounds now complete, eight teams had no pitching at all and nine teams had no starting pitching. My original plan was to look late for pitching, building an offense first, but with this many teams laying off the pitching, I decided it was time to change horses mid-stream.

I just didn’t like the odds of going head to head with more than half the league in an attempt to build a rotation. Round Six saw me grab Dice-K, and coming back around the bend I grabbed Roy Oswalt in Round Seven. Dice probably went a bit early, but that NPB bias of mine kicked in and I just couldn’t say no. I really like Oswalt with the 93rd pick.

Okay, the pitching has a base, so let’s get back to a bit more offense, I figured. My next two picks were Mike Lowell and Josh Willingham, both solid if unspectacular.

Reviewing those Round Six through to Round 10 picks, 36 of the 75 selections were pitchers, with relief pitchers being snatched up in a big way. Looks like that end game play on the bullpen is going to be a gamble, and it was. Round 10 found me looking at adding to that rotation and I really like what I found. Matt Cain was out there and the combination of ERA, WHIP and Ks was just too hard to turn down. If that ugly 2007 won/loss record drives him down too far, he could most certainly be a very nice bargain in 2008, I believe.

Round 11 saw me fill out my middle infield with Khalil Greene. I like the power potential here, but the BA could take a hit. One of my pre-draft targets was next on the list and Joey Votto, grabbed in Round 12, was now mine. Let’s just hope that Dusty Baker takes notice of that very solid September, as the power/speed combination is very real.

Since that first problem back in Round One, my computer had been performing as it should so I took the chance on queuing up a couple players for later perusal. Thank goodness it was just a couple as the good times were just about to roll. Round 13 saw me take Kaz Matsui, filling out my middle infield.

My team was probably a bit top heavy now on the SBs, but a decent average, runs scored and 30+ SB was too enticing for me to pass on at this stage.

Next up, with relief pitchers falling all over the place, it was time to grab some saves, so I took Todd Jones. With the Joel Zumaya injury, Jones should be guaranteed some decent save numbers for 2008, and it saved me from picking Joe Borowski.

Then, I went back to starting pitcher and took the sure and steady route by grabbing Derek Lowe, followed by another long shot in Franklin Gutierrez. If Gutierrez gets the ABs, he could be a nice grab at this stage.

In Round 17, and with my corner infield still vacant, I went with Eric Chavez. How the mighty have tumbled! If there is some semblance of health, there is at least potential for decent numbers here. A long shot, maybe, but we are nearing the end and it’s time to reach.

With my Round 18 pick nearing,

For players playing in category-based rotisserie leagues, drafting players takes on a whole new dimension. It’s not just the cumulative total of all your points anymore; suddenly, how good your overall +/- is can make or break your team’s standing.

With that in mind, the best way to approach a draft of this type is to take a comprehensive player listing, then create a list based on the context of specific categories. Let’s take a look at some of the more popular fantasy categories.

Power Play Points

For leagues scoring power play points, there are multiple factors to consider. Any transactions over the offseason create a ripple effect; for instance, Sheldon Souray’s departure to Edmonton will surely have a negative impact on Montreal’s power play. However, Souray isn’t necessarily the cure-all to Edmonton’s disappointing power play. With less forward talent to work with, Souray’s point total should go down. Other teams that should see a dip in their power play percentage include Anaheim, the New York Islanders, New Jersey and Buffalo.

On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Penguins’ power play should be even better. That means that someone like Sergei Gonchar, who was among the league’s leaders in power play points despite being a defenseman, holds even more value. His power play partner, Ryan Whitney, will also benefit. Other teams that should have a better power play include Los Angeles (with a surprisingly high percentage considering the Kings’ overall talent level), Florida, Washington and Chicago.

Key power play forwards: Sidney Crosby, Joe Thornton, Marc Savard, Alexander Ovechkin, Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, Jaromir Jagr, Marian Hossa, Saku Koivu

Key power play defensemen: Gonchar, Dan Boyle, Whitney, Lubomir Visnovski, Bryan McCabe, Dion Phaneuf

Trending up: Evgeni Malkin, John-Michael Liles, Matt Carle, Tom Poti, Olli Jokinen, Milan Michalek

Trending down: Sheldon Souray, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Andy MacDonald (if Teemu Selanne retires), Patrik Elias, Daniel Briere.

Shots On Goal

Some players who score a ton don’t shoot nearly enough, such as Thornton. Others, such as Ovechkin, can’t get enough of shooting. This category’s pretty simple as player patterns don’t change that suddenly.

Trigger happy: Ovechkin, Marian Hossa, Vincent Lecavalier, Ilya Kovalchuk, Olli Jokinen, Heatley, Jonathan Cheechoo, Brendan Shanahan, Michael Cammalleri, Eric Staal

Pass first, shoot later: Thornton, Spezza, Pavel Datsyuk, Alexander Frolov, Michael Nylander, Slava Kozlov, Rod Brind’amour, Saku Koivu

He shoots, he doesn’t score (enough): Brian Rolston, Sean Avery, Jamie Langenbrunner, Marco Sturm, Bill Guerin, Justin Williams, Fredrik Modin

PIMs

Some leagues reward penalty minutes despite the fact that getting a penalty’s generally considered a negative thing. If you’ve got a team of mostly skill players, it couldn’t hurt to get one player who does nothing but get PIMs. Otherwise, a balanced strategy makes the most sense – get power forwards and defensemen who like to break the rules.

Pure PIM players: Chris Neil, Donald Brashear, Brendan Witt, Matthew Barnaby, Jody Shelley, Jarko Ruutu, Nick Boynton, Brian McGratton

Good players who sin: McCabe, Souray, Keith Tkachuk, Zdeno Chara, Scott Hartnell, Darcy Tucker

Expect more points and PIMs: Evgeni Malkin, Steve Bernier, Sean Avery, Kevin Bieksa, Dion Phaneuf

Plus/Minus

Plus/minus is a difficult thing to gauge as it is such a team-based issue. However, skill players on good teams can still get a horrible +/- rating if they are a defensive liability. A good example of this is Brad Richards, who was a whopping -19 while teammates Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis were in the positive. Some players, such as Marc Savard, put up a ton of points mostly on the power play, so their +/- ranks among the league’s worst.

Players changing teams will often see a drastic change in their +/- rating. There’s simply no way Tom Preissing can get +40 again on the LA Kings. The best way to create a +/- strategy is to look at players on strong teams who score at even strength. You can grab players that even have a lousy power play percentage as long as they’re steady at even strength. Teams on their way up, such as Colorado, will give players a boost, while teams like Nashville will experience a dip.

Plus/minus Superstars: Henrik Zetterberg, Heatley, Spezza, Nicklas Lidstrom, Thornton, Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Marian Gaborik

Plus/minus Average players: Marek Malik, Chris Kelly, David Legwand, Chris Kunitz, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Jochen Hecht

Trending up: Joe Sakic, Jay Bouwmeester, Jordan Staal, Shae Weber, Martin Havlat

Trending down: Preissing, Daniel Briere, Tomas Vanek, Kimmo Timonen

Saves

A good goalie doesn’t necessarily make a lot of saves — he makes key saves. However, if your fantasy league gives points to someone every time a puck hits him, then you should look more at team defense than the actual skills of your starting goalie. If a goalie faces 35 shots per game and lets in three of them, that will actually provide you with more points in the save category than a goalie on a stingy team that faces 20 shots per game and lets one of them in. When Roberto Luongo was on the hapless Panthers’ teams, he was a goldmine in this category.

What’s the best way to find these goalies? There are several things to look for: Which team has weak team defense? Which team likes to play an offensive style rather than a trap? Which team takes a lot of penalties? Who plays more than your average starting goalie?

Most games played last season: Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist, Miikka Kiprusoff, Kari Lehtonen, Dwayne Roloson

Most shots faced per game last season: Chris Mason, Olaf Kolzig, Tim Thomas, Lehtonen, Rick DiPietro, Ryan Miller, Marc-Andre Fleury, Roloson

Some wild cards could be whoever winds up as the primary starter for the Phoenix Coyotes and Los Angeles Kings. Those two teams will surely see a lot of rubber fired their way.

So Derek and I were minding our own business, chatting about important things like how bad Larry Johnson will be and how MTV’s The Hills is the greatest show since MTV’s Laguna Beach. It was at this point that RotoRob started screaming at our poor souls.

“DO THIS DRAFT, YOU WORTHLESS DOLTS!”

After Derek stopped crying, we decided it would be best to do the master’s bidding. We joined 11 other fantasy football fanatics in what will go down in history as one of, if not the most suspenseful and cut-throat fantasy football drafts ever. Okay, maybe not, but it’s worth analyzing.

We’ll take a look at each round as a whole, and specifically explain our picks. Going into the draft, having the third pick, we knew who we weren’t going to take. But, aside from that, we figured we’d take some risks and go for the best team possible. So without further ado, here’s our draft. We were RotoRob’s Minions, which means we already had the best team name. Yay!

Round One

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Philly Freaks
2. Steven Jackson, Aiello’s Avalanche
3. Frank Gore, RotoRob’s Minions
4. Shaun Alexander, The Rays Bullpen
5. Rudi Johnson, Swashbucklers
6. Willie Parker, Hallstenators
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Madison Greene
8. Larry Johnson, Eat Fresh
9. Peyton Manning, JohnstonCo Hogs
10. Laurence Maroney, Romo’s Rodeo Clowns
11. Reggie Bush, Tony’s Texas Terror
12. Tom Brady,

Do you know the Schwab? No, no, no. Not Charles Schwab but Howie Schwab of Stump the Schwab fame. The Schwab, who recently appeared on a program for the worldwide leader in sports coverage, was asked about his top three running backs for fantasy football. He said LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson and…Shaun Alexander.

I like the Schwab. He’s a very knowledgeable guy. However, here’s where I draw the line. The days of Shaun Alexander being a top five fantasy back are over.

In 2005, Alexander stamped the NFL record book with 28 total touchdowns to go along with 1,880 yards rushing, which ultimately helped the Seattle Seahawks reach the first Super Bowl in team history. The following season, wear and tear along with the loss of all-world guard Steve Hutchinson, slowed Alexander.

After a bruising 370-carry regular season followed by an up and down post-season run, Alexander struggled through the first three games in 2006. Then, the Madden 2007 coverboy suffered a broken foot which kept him on the shelf for six games. While Alexander came back and slightly salvaged what could have been a promising season (he averaged just 3.6 yards per rush, which is amazing considering he managed to have a 200-yard effort against the Packers), history says his best days are behind him.

Alexander enters 2007 at age 29 with a healed foot and goals to eradicate the concept of backs being washed up as they hit 30. As all great running backs find out, Father Time is the greatest run stopper of all-time. The playoff games and constant body abuse will continue to take its toll on Alexander in 2007.

It’s a simple and clear concept. Alexander, who will turn 30 on October 30, cannot survive carrying the football between 350 and 370 times this season. In fact, if you prorate his 2006 carry total of 252 attempts over a 16-game season, he would have compiled 403 rushes. That’s not a recipe to preserve your star back.

In the week after Alexander came back from a six-game injury hiatus, he returned to play Green Bay in snowy Seattle on Monday Night Football. How did head coach Mike Holmgren reward him? He gave Alexander 40 attempts on a recovering broken foot in one of the most insane cases of running back overusage in league history.

Everyone is worried about Larry Johnson and Herm Edwards’ complete lack of regard for his safety. Yet, Alexander has been abused just as much over the past three seasons. As a result, I see one of two things occurring with Alexander the Great. He’ll end up splitting carries with back-up Maurice Morris or continuous mismanagement will lead to his demise a lot quicker than expected.

At best, Alexander can be a respectable number two back for your fantasy backfield due to Seattle’s cream puff schedule. If fantasy owners take him in the first round, they could be in for a long road to the all-important Week 16 league championship game. By the way, as an added negative, Alexander plays Baltimore in Week 16. Have fun with that.

Sorry Schwab, you may know who won the 1948 British Open and other fascinating facts, but you’re way off if you think Alexander can be a top three back this season.

Fast forward to draft night. You are sitting with the third pick in the first round. The lucky jerk that got the first pick went with chalk. The guy (or gal) picking second took their time. They weighed the options, but eventually felt that Steven Jackson was the safer pick. And now you’re up. Sweat is starting to accumulate on your brow. Every fantasy publication, web site, and faux expert you have stumbled upon claims that Larry Johnson is the next best choice. But, now it’s real. You have to make the biggest decision of the draft, not just for your team, but your whole league.

It’s a nightmare for many. The holdout. The offensive line woes. Priest Holmes lurking in the background (and letting everyone know about it). Take a deep breath. Let me put your mind at ease. There should be absolutely no debate about Johnson, as he stands about as much chance to be a top 10 fantasy running back as say, RotoRob does. That means a zero chance (RotoRob is Canadian after all). [Note from the Editor: RotoRob is fairly certain he could be a useful CFL back.]

This might seem like blasphemy, but if one statistic proved to be about 95 per cent effective in determining future success of an NFL running back, it’s probably prudent to examine it. Football Outsiders first talked about this a few years ago, and you can read all about it here. Basically, running backs who get 370 carries or more in a season rarely are much of a factor the following season. Much like MLB pitchers can be overworked, NFL running backs are prone to breaking down.

The latest victim? Shaun Alexander. The physical running back was coming off of a 370-carry season in which he scored 27 touchdowns and ran for 1,880 yards. How about Jamal Anderson, Eddie George, Terrell Davis, and Jamal Lewis? All were successful right up until they clocked in at 370 or more carries. But it goes beyond runners from the late 1990s and early 2000s. George Rogers, Marcus Allen, and Earl Campbell all took statistical tumbles in the early to mid 1980s.

Yes, there are a handful of running backs who have been able to beat the odds. LaDainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, and, most notably, Eric Dickerson all excelled in years following 370 or more carries. Quick, who are the top five running backs of all time? Most lists will have Smith, Payton and Dickerson in some order. In a few years, Tomlinson will also make that list.

Sadly for Johnson, however, of the 21 NFL backs who have crossed the 370-carry plateau, 14 had significantly worse seasons, 10 ran for under 1,000 yards, nine suffered major injuries, and only two (Tomlinson and Dickerson) put together an equal or better fantasy season the following year.

Now, let’s go back to draft night. You’re up and Johnson is available. Skip him. Trade down. Take Frank Gore. Take Peyton Manning. Take Willie Parker. Hell, take anyone else in your top 15. It’s the least risky option.

As the biggest day of the year approaches for fantasy football owners, let’s examine ways to lead you to the top of the mountain