Carlos Villanueva, a pitcher many considered to be a sleeper heading into this season, has been a big time flop, notwithstanding a victory in his most recent start. In fairness, he’s been matched up against some tough competition, facing seven straight Opening Day starters. But that doesn’t explain away his dramatically reduced K rate, much more hittable stuff and propensity for coughing up the long ball. Despite much improved control, Villanueva’s ERA of 6.00 makes him a complete non-asset at this time. I’d watch him in NL-only leagues, because he’s certainly someone we’ve identified in the past as having great potential should he be given an extended look in the Milwaukee rotation. Well, he’s getting that look now, and so far, we don’t like the view.

Jonathan Sanchez has shown nice improvement this season, but he’s been hitting the skids his last couple of times out, giving up ten hits, ten runs, two homers and eight walks in just 8 2/3 innings. I like his upside, and the fact that he’s doing a better job of limited the homers this year, but you’ll need to sit him on your bench for now. For the less patient among you, it may be time to start exploring other options.

With Clay Buchholz landing on the DL, Boston opted not to bring up another starter – yet. J.D. Drew and Coco Crisp are both hurt, so a more immediate need was an outfielder, hence the summoning of Jonathan Van Emery to fill Buchholz’s roster spot. Boston had an off day Thursday, so Josh Beckett will be able to fill Buchholz’s scheduled start Sunday pitching on normal rest. But come next week, we may be ready to see Bartolo Colon. Judging by the one hit he allowed over six shutout innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Thursday, I’d say Colon is ready to stake his claim on Buchholz’s rotation spot in Beantown.

Beckett, meanwhile, will be looking to rebound from the beating he took in B-More on Tuesday. He gave up 11 hits – the most surrendered by any Red Sox starter this year – and five runs in just 5 2/3 IP as he absorbed the loss. Beckett got slapped around in his first start off the DL, but then seemed to get into a groove. This month, however, he’s been inconsistent, throwing one middling game, one gem, and one stinker. Let’s see how he fares Sunday against Milwaukee, a team that has pounded him twice in the past three years.

Speaking of aces coming off rough outings, let’s see how Adam Wainwright bounces back Saturday after taking a serious beat down on Monday. He had been remarkable steady up to the point, so I doubt there’s much reason to think of that start as anything but an anomaly. With a 2.95 ERA and the fourth-best WHIP in the NL, Wainwright is in the early stages of a season that could culminate in Cy Young consideration.

Yet another starter who’s really been grooving this year, yet is coming off his worst start of the season is Florida’s Mark Hendrickson. He’s been receiving surprisingly little love this year, yet he’s been splendid, and has really revitalized his sagging career with the Marlins. If you’re seeking strikeouts, look elsewhere, but if you need wins, he can help. He’s already surpassed his total from last year, and this pace — especially with the Marlins rolling as they are — should easily topple his career high of 11 wins, set with the Rays back in 2005.

One starter who’s been rather consistent this season, but is likely frustrating his owners by his lack of wins is Aaron Harang. He’s quietly just gotten better and better as his career has progressed, but despite a solid effort this year (.240 BA with good control), he had just one win to show for his first eight starts. Perhaps the tides are turning for Harang. On Monday, despite not having his best stuff (he gave up a season-high three dingers), he earned the win as Cincy finally gave him some serious run support with eight tallies. That snaps a four-game losing skid.

After a rough start to the year, Roy Oswalt has settled down in a big way. In his last six starts, he’s gone 4-0, giving up just 33 hits and 16 earned runs in 41 IP while fanning 36 and walking 13. The homers allowed concern me, but on the promising side of things, Oswalt’s control has improved after slipping last year, and after three straight seasons of decline, his K/9 rate has risen back up. His ERA is still high (5.05) because of that early-season hole, but expect that to get back to the low 3s in short order.

It looks like Brad Penny is not going to be able to build on last season’s career year. After a decent April, the wheels have come off in May (10.34 ERA). His last two starts in particular have been ugly, with 19 hits and 15 runs allowed in 10 2/3 IP. Penny is still getting the wins, with five already, but his K/9 has dropped to the point where it’s unacceptable for a fantasy starter. That’s why we’ve seen him showing up on the wire in more shallow leagues. The fact that in recent years he’s been a much better first half pitcher makes me even more scared.

Jason Kendall is doing better this season, but I’d hardly call it a renaissance, so I’ll want to see more before recommending him as an option in anything but an NL-only league or as a backup in a deeper mixed league. A return to the NL has given him a lift, but he’s simply not the same player he was in Pittsburgh. And with his 34th birthday coming up next month and catchers generally fading offensively fairly early in their careers, I’m tempering my expectations that Kendall will ever again approach the lofty numbers he put up earlier in his career.

May 16th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: No Comments

We’re going to bounce all over the map today, discussing some minor leaguers, some major leaguers, some Indy players and even some international players.

Nevin Ashley, the Rays’ sixth rounder in 2006, is struggling to adjust to High-A ball this season. The former First Team All-Missouri Valley Conference catcher is just 5-for-33 in his last ten games, and his OPS is a putrid 501 through 29 games. The 23-year-old enjoyed a productive season at A-ball in 2007, earning a spot on the mid-season South Atlantic League All-Star team, but his offensive progress has really stalled.

The Rays had to be breathing a big sigh of relief on Saturday when Scott Kazmir tossed six shutout frames at the Halos. Coming off an ugly season debut after starting the year on the DL, Kazmir was very sharp this weekend, limiting the Angels to just three hits and three walks, while fanning five. Next up, he’ll face the Yankees in Tampa Bay on Thursday, and with New York’s offense looking middling at best so far, Kazmir should definitely be activated. Recall that we rated the Ray ace as a top 15 pitcher prior to the season.

Back to the minors, I like what I’m seeing out of White Sox 2006 sixth round pick Brian Omogrosso at Double-A so far. The 24-year-old righty recovered nicely Friday, tossing three shutout frames after taking a beating in his first start of the month. He was injured earlier this season, so is still being babied with short outings and, through five starts, Omogrosso has been very tough on lefties (1.50 ERA), but I’m concerned about his command so far. A full-time starter in 2008 after being used as a swingman in High-A last season, Omogrosso will need to sharpen his command before he starts getting noticed as a legitimate prospect.

Third baseman Ronnie Prettyman, the Mariners’ tenth round pick in 2005, is struggling mightily at Double-A this season. While he had some injury issues last year, he earned a rapid promotion to Triple-A, and performed quite well. This season, however, Prettyman is back at Double-A, and not looking anywhere near ready to get back to Triple-A. He’s currently mired in a 1-for-14 skid and is batting just .205 over the past ten games. Overall, Prettyman is batting just .209 through 31 games and 110 at bats. He has scored 20 runs, but his 605 OPS is not going to cut the mustard. Already 26, Prettyman will need to turn his season around quickly or very soon will be written off as a future major league prospect.

It looks like the end of the line for former Diamondback farmhand Aric Leclaire. The 30-year-old southpaw, taken by Arizona in the 19th round in 2000, was released last month by the Camden Riversharks of the Independent Atlantic League. He hasn’t pitched in organized ball since 2004, so stick a fork in him.

If you’re seeking relief help in an NL-only league, take a peek at Mitch Stetter of the Brew Crew. The 27-year-old lefty had a control meltdown in his last outing, but with 15 Ks in just 11 1/3 IP, he’s got my attention, especially considering he’s the only southpaw in the Milwaukee bullpen.

In other NL bullpen news, reliever Joe Thatcher, hit hard in his last outing as his ERA rose to 6.75, has been farmed out by the Padres to make room for Bryan Corey, just acquired from the BoSox. Corey hasn’t pitched well this year, struggling with his command in limited action, but I’ve always liked his arm and wondered how he’d do if he could just get an extended look. Hopefully, a return to the NL and a pitching friendly park will be the tonic Corey needs to get going. Watch him.

Clint Barmes, who we highlighted in The Wire Troll last month, is still available on many wires, but you better move quick as he’s getting snapped up. He’s riding a six-game hit streak heading into action Tuesday and Barmes has really revitalized his career after bottoming out last season. I’d like to see him score more runs, but perhaps if he maintains that .330 BA and nice gap power, he’ll move up in the batting order over the struggling Yorvit Torrealba.

Remember Alex Graman? The Yankees’ third round pick in 1999 appeared in only five games for New York before winding up in Japan. He’s become a solid NPB closer, making me wonder if the 30-year-old lefty will generate any interest back home.

May 13th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 4 Comments

Don’t be so quick to discard veteran hurler Jose Contreras. Although the 36-year-old (ya, right) Cuban took the loss Sunday, with just six hits allowed in eight innings he probably deserved a better fate. Contreras looked just about done last season, but so far this season, he’s pitched at his highest level since putting up a career year in 2005. Okay, the Ks are down, but so are the walks, hits and homers allowed. It all translates into making Contreras someone worth targeting in AL-only leagues.

Another Cuban hurler we shouldn’t be so quick to write off is Livan Hernandez. He started the year like gangbusters, but started winding up on the waiver wire after three straight poor outings. However, did you catch the fact that he limited the Tigers, who’s offense has arisen from its funk, to just one run over seven innings en route to his fourth win of the year on Friday? I still think Hernandez will ultimately be battered like the proverbial step child this year, but right now, he’s a decent AL-only option, especially if you need wins.

Let’s keep the Cuban hurler thread going. Orlando Hernandez is desperately needed by the Mets with Oliver Perez getting rocked his past few starts and Mike Pelfrey still not looking like he’s ready to take the next step. Well, El Duque is still in a protective boot, but he’s scheduled to be examined again this week. He’s someone you may want to take a chance on when he finally returns as he was pretty darned good last year when healthy. Of course, it’s that whole ‘when healthy’ thing that’s a bit disconcerting, isn’t it?

Switching speeds for a moment, Todd Helton, who had a nice bounce back season in 2007, has never looked this bad. He showed signs of life Monday, with a 2-for-4 performance, including an RBI and a walk, but had gone 4-for-22 prior to that, taking his OPS lower than it’s ever been. Of greater concern is that Helton has been a fast starter the past couple of years, enjoying excellent Aprils, but generally doing his worst in May, June and July. That doesn’t bode well for a turnaround. Yes, Helton is only 34, but he’s an old 34, given all the back woes, etc., he’s endured over the years. If someone’s been sniffing around Helton, looking to buy low, you may want to give the offer some consideration.

May 6th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 1 Comment

Have you noticed how badly Casey Blake is scuffling so far this season? While he’s looking a bit better lately, it’s been an awful start for Blake, who’s career seems to be in decline since posting a fine year in 2006. Now 34, Blake is having a real difficult time getting on base enough to be useful. But at least he’s been productive – on pace for a career high in RBI — and that will keep him in an Indian lineup that’s struggling to score in the early going. At what point will Manager Eric Wedge opt to give Andy Marte a chance? Believe it or not, Marte is just 24, so there still could be some upside there, even though most have written him off as a major bust.

Kevin Hooper, a former Tiger prospect, had his number retired last week by Lawrence High in Kansas. He last appeared in the majors in 2006, and will play Indy ball this summer in an effort to try to get back to organized ball. The 31-year-old hit .301 for Triple-A Toledo last year so he still has some skill.

Koyie Hill had his finest Triple-A campaign last year, batting over .320 with some pop, but he was awful in his limited action with the Cubs. Judging by his horrible start at Triple-A Iowa this year (8-for-44), he won’t be seeing Wrigley this year unless there’s an injury.

Travis Hafner continues to disappoint, but he has pulled within six home runs of trying Joe Carter for 10th place on the all-time Indian list with 151. What’s the deal with Pronk? That shoulder must be bugging him as he’s just not getting on base (a common problem for Cleveland hitters), and where the hell is the pop? He’s in a 2-for-19 funk. Sit Hafner’s ass down until the Pronk starts pounding some balls.

Did you know that former Expo Mike Lansing has a field named after him? The Casper Ghosts of the Pioneer League play there. That’s kind of fitting considering how his talent was invisible as soon as he left Colorado, Lansing’s second home.

Did you happen to notice that the Pirates, after a decent start, have dropped six straight to fall into the NL Central cellar? It looks like they are well on their way to tying the MLB record of 16 straight losing seasons. I’m dubbing this the curse of Pat Meares, an icon of Pittsburgh baseball failure in this generation.

April 22nd, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 1 Comment

Travis Buck has turned things around after an awful start.

Okay, I get it. Toronto sweeps the defending Champion BoSox and then gets swept by an Oakland team expected to be among the AL’s weakest clubs this season. Now Toronto travels to Texas, who is off to a good start, and Baltimore, which is somehow the AL East leader. The Jays could limp home in a bit of a hole early.

It’s time to take another look at Travis Buck in AL-only leagues. He started the season in an 0-for-22 funk, but apparently all he needed to get his shit together was a dose of Toronto pitching. Buck went 7-for-16 in the three-game series, smacking six doubles, driving in four and scoring three. This kid won’t fly under the radar for long. In preseason, I predicted that Buck would sneak up on people.

Chris Denorfia is batting .400 in limited action for the A’s, but he can’t carve into Ryan Sweeney’s PT with Sweeney also hitting a robust .364. Wasn’t the A’s outfield supposed to suck? Not so far.

Are you getting as sick as I am waiting for Brandon League to develop into the top set-up man we all expected him to be? Five walks in 2 2/3 innings so far? I’d say he’ll wind up in Syracuse before he winds up in an important role in the Toronto pen. Shawn Camp, meanwhile, is looking like he’s ready to get the call if the Jays’ need relief help. He’s tossed six shutout innings through four appearances, with one save while giving up two hits and no walks and fanning nine.

Back with the A’s, Bobby Crosby is finally healthy and hitting better than he ever has so far. But we’re still waiting for that power to return, and until it does, his value will be limited. Watch him closely. That three-hit (including two doubles), three-RBI game on Wednesday could be a sign of things to come.

Is Oakland going to stick with Jack Hannahan at third while it waits for Eric Chavez to return? After a nice season opener, Hannahan is mired in a 4-for-29 skid. Donnie Murphy, back from last weekend’s finger injury, is starting Friday. It wouldn’t take much for him to overcome the underwhelming Hannahan.

After hitting in eight straight games to start the season, Kurt Suzuki is hitless in his last two, but he’s gained some decent waiver wire traction early with his performance. Don’t look for much power, but if your league counts OBP, Suzuki is definitely worthy of attention.

Emil Brown, batting .250, is about as useful as we expected. That is to say, not very much. Time to start the Carlos Gonzalez watch? I give this situation another two weeks. Assuming Brown continues his middling ways, if Gonzalez isn’t up by May 1, I’ll be very surprised.

It wasn’t pretty, but Keith Foulke proved he can still save a game when he closed it down for the finale against the Jays. He was getting the chance with Huston Street having pitched in the previous two games, but this bears watching. Once Oakland fades as expected, Street could be dealt, opening up the A’s closing duties. Foulke has looked hard to hit in the early going and he leads the AL in holds. In AL only-leagues, I’d say he’s worth picking up right away.

We’re loving what we’re seeing from Vernon Wells in the early going. Touted as a great buy-low candidate all offseason by RotoRob baseball writer Tim McLeod, Wells has been incredibly productive, as well as more patient this year. He’s driven in runs in five straight games, producing eight RBI in all over this stretch. Could we be witnessing the early stages of a career year from Toronto’s mega-rich flyhawk?

Let’s get back to that Oakland bullpen situation for a moment. With Rich Harden going down for the 57th time in his career, Joey Devine got the call from Triple-A, and he wound up earning the win in his season debut, tossing a pair of shutout frames. More importantly, he didn’t walk anyone. That’s the key for this former Brave phenom. If Devine can maintain good control, he’s a closer in waiting. Watch his role evolve over the next couple of weeks, and start to put him on your watch list if you need bullpen help, especially in AL-only leagues.

April 11th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: No Comments