Unless a miracle happens, we’re about a good seven-to-ten days away from the start of a Detroit-Pittsburgh final. In the meantime, there’s not a heck of a lot to discuss from a fantasy perspective. At this point, if you’ve selected Penguin/Red Wing players, you’re in good shape. If not, well, you probably got knocked out of your playoff pool a while ago.

We can, however, take a glance at next season. Free agency won’t commence until July, but there are several coaching vacancies. With that in mind, will a team change its style under a new head coach? Let’s examine the situations:

Atlanta Thrashers: As RotoRob discussed in one of his rare hockey commentaries, chances are slim-to-none that Don Waddell will return behind the bench or as GM. Whoever gets the role as head coach will get a very dysfunctional group, as this mix of veterans and young players can really only rely on Ilya Kovalchuk and a cast of mixed quality. Will a new coach put the reins on Kovalchuk? Atlanta’s major problems are on the blueline, so look for a more concerted defensive effort from the Thrashers’ new boss. However, expect Kovalchuk to get a little leeway in his creativity.

Colorado Avalanche: This season, the Avalanche played its way into the playoffs despite a disastrous list of injuries. Colorado developed into a steady defensive team, and when the forward group was healthy, the Avs turned into an effective transition team that still retained a sturdy defense. Well, all that went out the window as pretty much everyone but GM Francois Giguere was injured in the playoffs. What can you expect from a new Colorado coach? Avalanche management expressed displeasure at the constant goalie swapping and the quick-to-bench manuevering of Joel Quenneville, so look for some consistency between the pipes. If Colorado is healthy, it will have the horses to play a more offensive attack style — if the new coach dictates it.

Florida Panthers: What a mess in Florida. We know that Jacques Martin is actively seeking a full-time bench boss. We know that Martin’s identity is of stingy defense (even though the team hasn’t executed that properly). We also know that the vaunted Panther youngsters haven’t blossomed (see: Stephen Weiss and Nathan Horton). Whoever is going to take the bench in Florida is either going to have to sooth over relations with captain Olli Jokinen or deal with the fact that Jokinen has been traded, all while trying to turn Jay Bouwmeester into a consistent superstar and getting the most out of the young talent. Florida’s experienced an ugly defensive system since Martin’s been installed there; that means the new coach and system will go one of two ways. One, he’ll maintain Martin’s identity and suck the offensive life out of his talent or, two, he’ll plan an up-tempo style that embraces speed and launches his younger players to a new level. We’ll see.

San Jose Sharks: Any way you look at it, every San Jose Shark other than Evgeni Nabokov had a down year. With coach Ron Wilson out of the picture, the team is still built in the mold GM Doug Wilson envisioned: speedy, skillful, and focused on puck possession. Whoever coaches the Sharks will get a load of a talent that seems unsure of itself. If the new coach can foster a level of consistency, you may see career years out of everyone other than Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo (it’s hard to top 125 points and 56 goals, respectively).

Toronto Maple Leafs: Almost as bad as the Florida situation on the ice and about a billion times worse off it, the Leafs have no identity other than Mats Sundin and a mix of overpaid veterans and unmolded young players. Will youngsters such as Matt Stajan get squashed under a new coach? Will Toronto and Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment accept a coach that develops younger players? Will Sundin even bother coming back? So many questions, so few answers; the only thing certain in Toronto is that it’s only going to get worse before it gets better, and a new coach won’t be able to solve all of the Leafs’ problems.

Also on the chopping block: see what happens with John Tortorella (Tampa Bay), Marc Crawford (Los Angeles), Bryan Murray (Ottawa), Andy Murray (St. Louis), and Alain Vignault (Vancouver). We could see a lot of teams change identities in the offseason, for better or worse.

May 17th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: 4 Comments

As series get closed out, we’re running out of pure fantasy-related things to talk about. Ultimately, if you’re in a league where you have to make picks with just one or two trades available for the duration of the playoffs, there’s a good chance you’re either totally hosed at this point or you’re in contention — and that’s all a matter of how the puck bounces. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few of the sleepers that may give you a little extra push from the remaining teams.

Johan Franzen isn’t exactly an unknown quantity, but I don’t think anyone, least of all Colorado coach Joel Quenneville, expected him to put up back-to-back hat tricks. There’s almost next to no chance that Franzen is available in any league with multiple transactions, but some of his more unheralded teammates may be. Jiri Hudler’s numbers aren’t as gaudy as Franzen’s, but he’s still just about a point per game. Mikeal Samuelsson is just under that, but he’s flying far further underneath the radar.

Thanks to Dallas blowing it Friday night, San Jose will have at least one more game, and that’s good news for Joe Pavelski. The unheralded sophomore became big-time news with his overtime winner in Game Five. With nine points in 12 games, he’s not exactly having a bad playoff to boot, and while the focus is on San Jose’s big guns, Pavelski’s stealing a little fantasy thunder for himself.

While the Rangers are trying to climb out of a near-impossible hole (and it could all end Sunday), if they somehow manage to extend the series against Pittsburgh, former Penguin Martin Straka will still be chugging along. It helps that he plays with Jaromir Jagr. On the other end of the spectrum, someone in Pittsburgh is getting points besides Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Marian Hossa: his name is Ryan Malone. And while the gritty winger has made some fantasy splashes before, so far he’s got as many points as the highly paid Hossa.

Besides the fantasy aspect, there’s the whole playoff pick ‘em game floating around. Most of these brackets are locked before the playoffs start, but that doesn’t mean we can’t analyze it a little bit. My own personal feeling is that Detroit is as strong as it seems, but at the same time, the Wings haven’t been tested too much.

Put it this way: you’ve got a Nashville squad that could barely put up 20 shots a game and played without two of its best players (Jason Arnott and David Legwand) for a significant part of the series. If Nashville wasn’t so gritty — and Dan Ellis wasn’t so on the spot — the score could have been as lopsided as the shots-against.

Sure, Detroit demolished Colorado, but it played an Avalanche squad that was essentially without their usual top two lines. Combine that with a flu-sapped Jose Theodore and an injured Scott Hannan and the Avs were ripe for the picking.

That’s not to dismiss the quality of play Detroit put up during the series. The Wings are still the monster to beat in the West; their supreme puck control and special teams show that they’re a cut above the rest. However, it’ll be interesting to see how they respond in a series where it’s not men against boys (or men against injured men).

May 3rd, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: 4 Comments

We’re almost done with the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, but despite the number of 3-1 and 3-2 series, you never want to count anyone out until the series is finally over. However, we can analyze individual play — and see how accurate Ice Chips has been so far.

We wrote: “For example, a lot of people will probably pass over Patrick Marleau because of his pitiful regular season totals, but a quick look shows that he had a respectable past 20 games and he’s one of the leaders in playoff goals over the past three seasons.”

Not a bad one to start with. Not only as Marleau been strong shift-in and shift-out so far against Calgary, he’s also put up considerable numbers every game — and for the first time in his career, he’s looking like he’s worthy of the captain’s C.

Similarly, Brad Richards is reliable in the postseason even though he hasn’t been great in Dallas so far; Richards isn’t worth a top pick right now, but he may slide down and be available in later rounds.

Richards hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he’s proved to be much more valuable than his initial few games indicated.

Look for proven playoff performers. Hello, Chris Drury. Hello, Jarome Iginla.

The Rangers didn’t sign Drury to put up 100 points in the regular season; they wanted him to score in the clutch. However, he’s been held off the scoresheet for the majority of the first-round series against New Jersey. The Rangers’ other key signing, Scott Gomez, has fulfilled his promise though.

As for Iginla, he (along with Dion Phaneuf) is really the only reason why the Calgary Flames have put up such a competitive fight against the San Jose Sharks. Every time Iginla touches the puck, something good happens for Calgary. The Calgary media has been quick to point out that his supporting cast hasn’t really done their job, though.

That’s why a top defenseman should be in your first two picks. Look at Sergei Gonchar, Brian Campbell, Nicklas Lidstrom, Scott Niedermayer, Mark Streit, and guys along those lines.

This is true in theory. In execution? Well…Campbell has looked like a deer in headlights at times, Niedermayer’s team preferred sleeping to playing, while Streit and Andrei Markov haven’t done much either. Phaneuf, however, has been a catalyst for Calgary. Surprise defensive standouts include Andrew Ference of Boston and Patrice “Breeze By” Brisebois of Montreal.

Bet on a favoured team with a goalie that’s been steady all season long like San Jose’s Evgeni Nabokov versus Detroit’s groin-pull-o-rama Dominik Hasek.

As of this writing, Nabokov has been a leader on and off the ice for San Jose with its 3-2 series lead against Calgary. Hasek? He’s played some of the worst hockey of his career (his words, not mine) and lost his starting job to Chris Osgood.

Playoffs are a streaky time of year – remember when Alyn McCauley jumped from two-way checker to playoff scoring demon for the Maple Leafs? If someone gets hot, take a gamble – smart risk-taking is the best way to win a playoff pool.

Iginla, Sidney Crosby, Ryane Clowe – which one of these in not like the others? While Clowe is a skilled player, he’s better known as being a big body rather than a scorer. Still, these are the types of players that rise to the occasion during the playoffs. Other notable players who’ve elevated their respective games include Ryan Malone, Mike Knuble, Loui Eriksson, and rookie Brandon Dubinsky.

Also, if Philadelphia makes the playoffs, don’t be fooled by Daniel Briere and his decent point total (check out his awesome –22, though). Briere hasn’t been the same since he lost consistent playing time with Simon Gagne…

Whoops.

…if you’re taking someone from Philly, a safe sleeper pick is Vaclav Prospal.

Cha-ching!

Not only do they lose one of their best players indefinitely (Daniel Alfredsson), the Sens can’t figure out if they’re awesome or horrible. They could easily drop out in a four-game sweep in the first round or they could make a deep push; that level of uncertainty means that you’ll want to avoid big names like Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley and use your top forward picks elsewhere.

Double cha-ching!

Where do we go from here? It’s difficult to say that Marc-Andre Fleury will put up the same numbers in the second round that he did against Ottawa. The Senators, though extremely talented, lacked focus and passion. Whoever the Penguins play in the conference semis, it’s simply going to be far more difficult than Pittsburgh’s first-round smackdown of Ottawa.

Barring a minor miracle over the next few days, the Philadelphia Flyers will upset the Washington Capitals, and big kudos have to go to the entire team. It’s been a complete effort with diverse scoring and strong defense. Check for grinders that are putting pucks in the net such as the aforementioned Knuble; they may still be available in your league.

And who’s gone pointless so far? Marian Gaborik of Minnesota and Chris Higgins of Montreal. In fact, Montreal’s top performers, including Alexei Kovalev, haven’t done all that well, but its fourth-line grinders have overachieved, making them perfect fantasy sleepers.

And on a final note, what’s powering the New York Rangers? Not Sean Avery, not Gomez, not Henrik Lundqvist…no, the Blueshirts are fueled by the might of Jaromir Jagr’s soul patch.

April 19th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: 4 Comments

Patrick Marleau had a down year, but he’s been pretty good down the stretch and is a proven playoff performer. (Photo by Jon Swenson)

How does one write a playoff primer when spots are still up for grabs and seedings are uncertain? Well, when you have a deadline, you just roll the dice and hope for the best! Still, there are plenty of definite things you can count on if you’re participating in a playoff pool and we’ll focus on those. I’ll also throw in a few nuggets of what-if scenarios but those could all be irrelevant depending on what happens Friday night, Saturday, and when this finally gets posted (probably Saturday). [Editor's note -- oops, make that Sunday due to hangover.]

There are a number of different playoff pool types, and that means that you may get to move players in and out after a round (or in real time) or you may be stuck with your roster from day one. Consider these tips as general and as all-encompassing as possible, and try to apply them with your playoff pool rules in mind.

Tip One: Bet on sure things in net - that means you’re looking at stability, health, and long-term. Try concentrating your picks on the teams you feel have the best shot to go in for the long haul, especially if you feel like they’ll be playing teams that aren’t clean sweeps. That’s right, I said look for teams that can win a tougher series rather than a team looking at a cakewalk - a tougher series means more games means more fantasy points.

Tip Two: Spread out your offense. The playoffs are a time when secondary scoring makes or breaks both Cup contenders and fantasy teams. For example, a lot of people will probably pass over Patrick Marleau because of his pitiful regular season totals, but a quick look shows that he had a respectable past 20 games and he’s one of the leaders in playoff goals over the past three seasons. Similarly, Brad Richards is reliable in the postseason even though he hasn’t been great in Dallas so far; Richards isn’t worth a top pick right now, but he may slide down and be available in later rounds.

Tip Three: Look for proven playoff performers. Hello, Chris Drury. Hello, Jarome Iginla. These are the guys who’ve always stepped up when push comes to shove, and rather than take people with up-and-down playoff records (Joe Thornton, Pavel Datsyuk - two players that have really only had one good playoff season), focus your top picks on guys that have consistently played well when the chips are on the line.

Tip Four: Avoid injury-prone players. Sure, Peter Forsberg is a great playoff performer, but who knows whether or not he’ll play game-to-game. Though, knowing Forsberg, he’ll be in the lineup when it counts, even when he’s not 100 per cent.

Tip Five: Defense wins fantasy leagues. That’s defense as in scoring from blueliners, a rarity in today’s NHL and even scarcer in the playoffs. That’s why a top defenseman should be in your first two picks. Look at Sergei Gonchar, Brian Campbell, Nicklas Lidstrom, Scott Niedermayer, Mark Streit, and guys along those lines.

Tip Six: Take a closer look at goaltending. Bet on a favoured team with a goalie that’s been steady all season long like San Jose’s Evgeni Nabokov versus Detroit’s groin-pull-o-rama Dominik Hasek. Right now, your favourites are San Jose, Detroit, Anaheim, Montreal, and Pittsburgh. Jean-Sebastian Giguere’s battled injuries, Carey Price is untested, and Marc-Andre Fleury can be streaky. Of those goalies, Nabokov is the best bet.

Tip Seven: Use the first round to judge sleepers. Playoffs are a streaky time of year - remember when Alyn McCauley jumped from two-way checker to playoff scoring demon for the Maple Leafs? If someone gets hot, take a gamble - smart risk-taking is the best way to win a playoff pool.

Now, depending on who makes it in the East, we could be in for some wild showdowns. Washington’s one of the hottest teams in the league, and if it plays well against Florida and get a few bounces its way, the Caps could finish as high as seventh. If the Caps make it, they’re playing with enough confidence and swagger to make their players great dark-horse picks, even outside of Alexander Ovechkin.

Also, if Philadelphia makes the playoffs, don’t be fooled by Daniel Briere and his decent point total (check out his awesome -22, though). Briere hasn’t been the same since he lost consistent playing time with Simon Gagne; if you’re taking someone from Philly, a safe sleeper pick is Vaclav Prospal.

As for the Senators, talk about a team in disarray. Not only do they lose one of their best players indefinitely (Daniel Alfredsson), the Sens can’t figure out if they’re awesome or horrible. They could easily drop out in a four-game sweep in the first round or they could make a deep push; that level of uncertainty means that you’ll want to avoid big names like Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley and use your top forward picks elsewhere.

April 6th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: No Comments

Another day, another drama in Leaf Land.

Perhaps the most controversial act of his tenure in Toronto, Mats Sundin gave an indication of what his hockey future was by removing himself from the roster with just a handful of games left and reportedly requesting management make Tomas Kaberle the captain of the Blue and White. While interim GM Cliff Fletcher hasn’t said a word yet, word has already leaked that Sundin passed the metaphorical torch by having a meeting between Fletcher, coach Paul Maurice, and Kaberle before cleaning out his stall.

Right off the bat, all indications are pointing to Kaberle being the next captain of the Maple Leafs. The question must be asked, however, what’s the purpose of this? Why not accept a trade to another team rather than continue to play out the season, only to move on now?

It’s a question that probably won’t be answered immediately as Sundin is reportedly back on a plane to his native Sweden right now.

Looking at past events, one can sense that it’s more about the future than the past. Sundin stayed loyal to Toronto by refusing to waive his no-trade clause — perhaps not so much the franchise, but rather the city, the fans, and his teammates.

For Sundin, the season was essentially over when it became apparent that his team’s late push wouldn’t be enough to make the playoffs. The Leafs were a longshot anyways, but apparently Sundin wanted to give it one last go before calling it a career.

Of course, no one knows exactly what the future will hold for Sundin. Will he retire? Will he pull a Scott Niedermayer? Will he play for a team in Sweden?

On the one hand, Sundin has talked about wanting to finish his career with the Leafs. On the other hand, his skill level and physical conditioning are still in top form, and he could still command a handsome sum for a short-term contract.

Looking at Kaberle, he is in a unique situation, and it seems like Sundin picked this time so that Kaberle could get his feet wet as captain in a high-pressure city like Toronto before embarking on next season’s campaign as the full-fledged captain and identity of the Maple Leafs. After all, Kaberle has gone from the deer-in-the-headlights whipping boy of die-hard Leaf fans to the acknowledged most skilled, most valuable player on the team. While Kaberle has had an A on his jersey for some time, it will be a trying time as he tries to lead a team in transition.

Starting next season, we all knew the Leafs would be different. We all knew that Sundin was an unrestricted free agent and that the team’s core would shift. Is Sundin being noble by trying to give Kaberle a head start on the leadership role or is Sundin taking his proverbial ball (puck) and going home? One thing’s for sure, many a Leaf fan will still feel a fool when the playoffs start in April.

April 1st, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: No Comments