Remember how out of place Joe E. Tata was with all those kids on Bev Hills? Yup, that’s Juan Carlos Navarro on this list. (Worldvision Enterprises Inc.)

Picking up where we left off last week, when we listed the rookies we ranked five through ten, Next Generation brings you the top five rookie performances of the 2007-08 season.

5. Juan Carlos Navarro, MEM – At 27 years of age, I have mentioned that Navarro is a senior citizen by rookie standards, or the Joe E. Tata of Beverly Hills 90210, if you will.

La Bomba’s main contribution during this season was from behind the arc. JCN fell just two short of Kerry Kittles’ rookie record of 158 treys set in the 1996-97 season, yet he did finish one ahead of Allen Iverson for second place.

Putting Navarro’s season in historical context, there is a striking similarity to the 1996-97 rookie season of Matt Maloney. Maloney, like Navarro, was much older than the average NBA rookie - similar to an Eric Nies in comparison with other The Real World/Road Rules Challenge: Battle of the Sexes 2 competitors — the scrappy 6’3” point guard didn’t enter the league until the age of 25. When comparing the two rookie seasons, one might not like the future of Navarro:

Navarro: 25.8 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 1.9 3PG, 2.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.6 SPG
Maloney: 29.1 MPG, 9.4 PPG, 1.9 3PG, 2.0 RPG, 3.7 APG, 0.6 SPG

In other words, these “point guards” like to chuck the three ball and bring little else to the table.

4. Luis Scola, HOU – No one put it better than former Rocket coach and director of scouting for USA Men’s Basketball Rudy Tomjanovich when he said, “I really like Scola. He’s the kind of guy who doesn’t do anything great but does everything well. He’s smart and he has the size and strength to be an NBA power forward.” Scola became stronger as the season progressed, and contributed mightily during the Rockets’ 22-game winning streak in the absence of Yao Ming.

Scola’s rookie season is comparable to that of Kurt Thomas’s 1995-96 rookie effort:

Scola: 10.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 0.515 FG%, 0.668 FT%
Thomas: 9.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 0.501 FG%, 0.663 FT%

3. Al Horford, ATL - Horford is blessed with an exceptional basketball IQ and anticipation skills, as well as a chiseled frame and extraordinary strength. I expected Horford to be able to contribute in the rebounding category, but his scoring needs to catch up to his brute strength and ability to clean glass. Horford also disappoints in the block category, which is a must among fantasy basketball centres on my team.

Even so, only 15 players since the 1980-81 season have averaged a double-double in their rookie season, and Horford narrowly missed joining the impressive club with an average of 9.7 RPG.

Horford’s rookie season mirrors that of Bill Laimbeer’s in 1980-81:

Horford: 10.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 0.499 FG%, 0.731 FT%
Laimbeer: 9.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 0.503 FG%, 0.765 FT%

2. Jamario Moon, TOR – Since the 1980-81 season, only 30 rookies have averaged at least one block and one steal and Moon became number 31 in this impressive group, averaging 1.4 BPG and 1.0 SPG. Moon’s across the board production narrowly edges the value produced by Horford.

Although their games don’t appear on the surface to have any similarities whatsoever, look at the resemblance between Moon’s rookie season and that of Vlade Divac:

Divac: 8.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 0.499 FG%, 0.708 FT%
Moon: 8.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 0.485 FG%, 0.741 FT%

Moon has some work to do, however, to match Divac’s incredible acting.

1. Kevin Durant, SEA – For Rookie of the Year, it’s Durant and no one else is a close second. Unfortunately for Durant, this season the Sonics found themselves running primarily out of the half-court set rather than operating on the run. Additionally, Durant saw a majority of his time at shooting guard rather than one of the forward positions. Both situations placed him further from the basket and, as a result, Durant’s field goal percentage and rebounding initially suffered. He neither had the strength nor the handle in traffic at this stage in his career to get closer to the hoop, and often times found himself settling for contested shots 18 feet or further from the basket.

KD figured things out after the All-Star break, after which he registered a field goal percentage of 47.6. His final game, though, gave fantasy owners something to drool about over the entire offseason – a line of 42 points, 13 rebounds, six assists, two blocks, one steal, one three-pointer and 18-for-25 shooting from the field. I don’t think it’s a stretch to go as far as to say he has a good chance to be a top 15 player next year at the age of 20.

Don’t believe me? See for yourself, as I compare Durant’s rookie season to the rookie season of LeBron James. Aside from the difference in assists, which you’d expect because LeBron is a primary ballhandler and Durant is not, the categories are fairly close:

James: 20.9 PPG, 0.8 3PG, 5.5 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 0.417 FG%, 0.754 FT%
Durant 20.3 PPG, 0.7 3PG, 4.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 0.43 FG%, 0.873 FT%

April 22nd, 2008
Categories: BASKETBALL, Next Generation, Steve Simon . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 7 Comments

Could Clipper rookie Al Thorton’s career follow the path of former Clipper Glen Rice? (David Tuman/Daily)

As the curtains close on the 2007-2008 NBA season, Next Generation reflects on the top ten freshmen. Working backwards to build the greatest suspense possible, Part One deals with the rookies that rank ten through six. Part Two will cover the top five, which includes the rookie of the year. Note that we’ve taken into consideration our perspective of the player’s long-term impact when compiling these rankings.

Drum roll please…

10. Al Thornton, LAC – Thornton came on strong after the All-Star break, averaging 16.4 PPG. He actually ranks lower on this list because at 24 years of age, he is slightly older than most others and I’m uncertain just how much better he will get.

His rookie season looked similar to the 1989-1990 rookie season of Glen Rice.

Rice: .439 FG%, .734 FT%, 13.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 0.2 3PG
Thornton: .430 FG%, .743 FT%, 12.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 0.5 3PG

Thornton is a fantastic athlete that can score, but takes a lot of shots to get his points. It remains to be seen how he will manage alongside a healthy Elton Brand, Chris Kaman and Tim Thomas – um, well, maybe just Brand and Kaman.

9. Jeff Green, SEA – Yes, his 27-point, ten-rebound performance in his last game of the season was a gem. Yet, as I’ve previously written about Green, he reminds me of Richard Jefferson. RJ, like Green, came into the league at 21 years of age; both are known for their all-around game and superior athleticism; and both were traded on draft day. When comparing their rookie seasons, you can see just how similar their games actually are:

Green: .429 FG%, .744 FT%, 10.5 PPG, 1.5 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 0.3 3PG
Jefferson: .457 FG%, .713 FT%, 9.4 PPG, 1.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 0.2 3PG

So, what does that mean? Assuming that Green’s career takes a similar path as Jefferson’s has, the Sonic youngster will have much more value to his NBA team than he will to fantasy basketball teams. While Jefferson’s range has greatly improved over the years, his lack of steals, rebounds or threes from the forward position leaves a lot to be desired. I have little confidence that Green can do much better than Jefferson, and that means, at best, a $20 fantasy basketball player two to three years down the line.

8. Yi Jianlian, MIL – It’s tough to defend the post All-Star numbers, in which he averaged only 5.0 PPG and 3.5 RPG. However, there are some things to like about Yi. Athletic seven-footers with precision from the outside don’t come around often, and the potential is there for Yi to contribute in virtually every category. The best reason to hold onto Yi in keeper leagues is the similarities of the 1998-1999 season of Dirk Nowitzki, at which point both players entered into the NBA at 20 years of age (we think).

Nowitzki: .405 FG%, .773 FT%, 8.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 0.3 3PG
Jianlian: .421 FG%, .841 FT%, 8.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 0.1 3PG

Thanks to his 7′4″ wingspan, Yi’s steals and rebound contributions should continue to rise as he becomes more accustomed to the NBA.

7. Joakim Noah, CHI – Noah recently delivered a stellar five-game stretch in which he averaged 12.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 1.2 steals, along with a 56.1 FG percentage and 89.5 FT percentage. Most recently, his 18-point, 15-rebound and four-block performance might have been the “Noble One’s” way of crashing the party. A talented passer and a relentless rebounder, Noah stood to gain the most when the Bulls found someone crazy enough to take Ben Wallace’s sizable contract and diminishing skills (thank you, Danny Ferry).

The most positive indication that Noah will contribute regularly is the averages he posted in the month of April – 10.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.6 SPG and 1.4 BPG while shooting over 50 per cent from the field. His rookie season mirrors last year’s rookie season of Paul Millsap.

Millsap: .525 FG%, .673 FT%, 6.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.9 BPG
Noah: .482 FG%, .691 FT%, 6.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.9 BPG

Noah’s progression, just like that of Millsap’s, will ultimately be determined by playing time and where he ranks on the depth chart.

6. Thaddeus Young, PHA – The rookie from Georgia Tech has turned the proverbial corner since Kyle Korver was traded to the Utah Jazz. Turning the keys of the offense over to Louis Williams would create an up-tempo style of play in which the athletic Young would thrive, with more opportunities to beat his man down the floor for easy buckets. Young is missing an outside game, yet still achieved a field goal percentage of 53.8. Just to give you a taste of next year’s potential, he played 35 minutes in the regular season finale and posted 18 points, five assists, four rebounds, two steals, two three-pointers while shooting 58.3 per cent from the floor and going perfect from the line.

Stay tuned for the top five, and feel free to e-mail me with your top five. I’ll gladly debate your selections.

April 18th, 2008
Categories: BASKETBALL, Next Generation, Steve Simon . Author: Steve Simon . Comments: 5 Comments

Emeka Okafor, seen here trying to stop Kobe, is one of just 15 rooks to average a double-double. Can Al Horford become the 16th? (AP photo)

On this, the day of April fools, Next Generation monitors an NBA rookie class that is anything but foolish. In fact, it’s been a while since I can recall handing out this much praise to so many first-year players. This week, we look back on some career-high performances, some rookies staring to hit their strides, and some all-time records that may be in jeopardy.

Did you Notice…

Kevin Durant simply walked right around the rookie wall, and didn’t even break a sweat. In his last five games, KD has managed a 54.5 FG percentage, while averaging 24.2 points and 5.2 rebounds. The Seattle stud seems like a lock to join Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James as the only teenagers to average 20 points or more in their rookie season.

Al Horford is very, very close to averaging a double-double for the season. Currently sporting 10.0 PPG and 9.6 RPG, Big Al could join a select few to do so in their rookie campaign. Since the 1980-1981 season, only 15 freshmen have been able to manage such a feat. Most recently, both Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor joined the club in the 2004-2005 season.

Jordan, Jonathan, Joey, Donny and Danny, a.k.a. The New Kids on the Block, are reuniting and will appear on The Today Show on April 4. Back in the beginning of the season, I thought for a long time about how I should name this column. Before settling on Next Generation, I came very close to naming it “New Kids on the Block” - after all, NBA rookies are the new guys. I think I probably made the right choice….

Luis Scola can play. How’s this for a week - 15.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 53.4 FG%, and 80.0 FT%. The highlight was an 18-point, 18-rebound effort last Wednesday against Minnesota. I guess the Spurs regret the trade they made last July when they sent the rights for Scola along with centre/forward Jackie Butler to the Houston Rockets in return for Vassilis Spanoulis, a future second-round pick, and cash considerations. Spanoulis is doing just fine - in Greece. He was recently named cover player of NBA Live 08, the International version. I kid you not.

Joakim Noah is coming off a stellar five-game stretch in which he averaged 12.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 1.2 steals, along with a 56.1 FG percentage and 89.5 FT percentage. Most recently, his 18-point, 15-rebound and four-block performance might have been the “Noble One’s” way of crashing the party.

NBC’s Friday Night Lights will return for a third season, thank goodness.

Jamario Moon was re-inserted into the starting lineup of the Raptors, and rewarded patient fantasy owners with a line of 15 points, eight rebounds, two blocks and one steal.

After draining five three-pointers in his last five games, Juan Carlos Navarro now has a total of 142 treys. With eight games remaining, JCN needs 17 to surpass Kerry Kittles‘ record of 158 set in the 1996-1997 season. Navarro has averaged 1.9 from long distance and projects to fall short by one, which is typical of anything pertaining to Memphis Grizzlies basketball.

Daequan Cook is averaging 18.5 points, six rebounds and 4.5 threes in his last two games. Yes, it’s a small sample zize, but he could be a strong play down the stretch, particularly on a roster filled with such household names as Blake Ahearn, Stephane Lasme and Joel Anthony.

After setting a career high with 39 points and adding five steals on Saturday, At Thornton followed with a 26-point, seven-rebound outburst on Monday. Thornton flourishes with Tim Thomas on the sidelines, but how his performance fares with the expected return of Elton Brand bears watching.

Nick Young set a career high with 27 points on Sunday, and came back with an 18-point, three-steal performance last night. Young averaged 29 minutes in those last two games in which Antonio Daniels has been on the shelf with a wrist injury.

April 1st, 2008
Categories: BASKETBALL, Next Generation, Steve Simon . Author: Steve Simon . Comments: 1 Comment

Much like Heidi Montag, Next Gen is sporting a new look.

Next Generation is back, like Heidi Montag on The Hills, but only one of us has a fresh new set of duck lips.

Much like the unrecognizable Montag on last night’s season premiere, I decided to do something a little different this week. Due to an overwhelming positive response to last week’s “Did You Notice” section (thanks, Mom), I submit to my loyal readers a full article of the good stuff.

Did you notice…

Among all teenagers to log at least 15 MPG in their rookie season, Thaddeus Young is on pace to finish with the second best field goal percentage. His 53.3 FG percentage ranks only behind the gargantuan 57.1 per cent posted by Moses Malone in the 1974-75 season.

After sinking 10 three-pointers in 19 attempts over his previous two games going into Monday’s action (in which he drained zero from long distance - which truly makes him maddening), Juan Carlos Navarro now resides in seventh place among all rookie seasons. With 12 games remaining, La Bomba finds himself a mere 21 bombs behind Kerry Kittles’ rookie mark of 158 set in the 1996-97 season.

In the 12 games Kevin Durant has played in the month of March, the Seattle stud has a 53.2 FG percentage to raise his season’s to 42.1, slightly better than LeBron James’ rookie field goal percentage of 41.7. Currently standing at 19.6 PPG, Durant has 13 games remaining to improve that average to the magical mark of 20 PPG.

While many dismissed the rumors that Yi Jianlian was supposedly promised as many as 25 minutes per game in his rookie season by Milwaukee Bucks owner Herb Kohl, “The Next Yao Ming” is currently averaging 25.3 MPG.

As much as I’ve ridiculed Al Horford all season, he actually turned in a very solid week. Over his last four games, he averaged 13 points, 12.5 rebounds, four assists and one block, along with his 60 FG percentage and perfect work from the line. Horford also collected his 20th double-double of the season against Dwight Howard last Saturday. Howard, in case you were wondering, had 32 double-doubles in his rookie season, and that was straight out of high school, of course.

Al Thornton is averaging only 9.2 PPG over his last five, and is shooting just 38.9 per cent from the floor in the month of March.

Since the 1980-81 season, only 30 rookies have averaged at least one block and one steal. Jamario Moon currently resides within this impressive group, averaging 1.4 BPG and 1.0 SPG. Although their games don’t appear on the surface to have any similarities whatsoever, look at the resemblance between Moon’s rookie season and that of Vlade Divac:

Vlade Divac: 8.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 49.9 FG%
Jamario Moon: 8.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 47.3 FG%

Moon has some work to do, however, to match Divac’s incredible trifecta. In the span of just six years, Divac appeared in such cinema magic as Juwanna Mann, Space Jam and Eddie.

March 25th, 2008
Categories: BASKETBALL, Next Generation, Steve Simon . Author: Steve Simon . Comments: 3 Comments

Contrary to what The Who believes, the kids are not alright.

With all apologies to The Who, and even fellow RotoRob columnist Andy Goldstein’s latest column, the kids are most certainly not alright. Utilizing the Next Generation’s five-tier ranking system for NBA rookies, the last two columns have been incredibly similar to my girlfriend’s general attitude toward me when I become wrapped up in preparation for my fantasy basketball drafts or become immersed in March Madness and unwittingly don’t pay enough attention to her - sharply critical, fault-finding, and rather condemnatory.

For those that did not have the opportunity to check it out, and I can’t imagine why you haven’t, I developed a system that sorted through the first-year players and helped to categorize what we’ve seen from them up to this point in the season. It goes something like this:

1. Future Stud
2. Solid Performer Worthy of a Starting Role
3. One-Category Filler
4. Potential to Contribute to a Fantasy Team
5. Belongs on the Waiver Wire

This week, we place Juan Carlos Navarro under the spotlight. At 27 years of age, Navarro is a senior citizen by rookie standards, or the Joe E. Tata of Beverly Hills 90210, if you will. (Except, of course, you don’t get any peach pie with Navarro.)

La Bomba’s main contribution this season has been from behind the arc. Through 66 games, JCN has nailed 126 treys. With 16 games remaining, it is conceivable that Navarro can surpass the rookie record for three-pointers in a season. In the 1996-1997 season, Kerry Kittles set the freshman mark for treys with 158. At Navarro’s current pace, he would surpass Allen Iverson for second place with 156. A.I. connected 155 times from downtown during the same season that Kittles set the mark in a year where the kids were alright, apparently.

Putting Navarro’s season in historical context, there is a striking similarity to the 1996-1997 rookie season of Matt Maloney. The career of the Houston Rocket never truly recovered from the smackdown he received at the hands of John Stockton while falling two games short of the 1997 NBA Finals. However, Maloney did hit 154 three-pointers during his rookie season.

Maloney, like Navarro, was much older than the average NBA rookie - similar to an Eric Nies in comparison with other The Real World/Road Rules Challenge: Battle of the Sexes 2 competitors . The scrappy 6′3″ point guard didn’t enter the league until the age of 25. When comparing the two rookie seasons, one might not like the future of Navarro:

Matt Maloney (1996-1997): 29.1 MPG, 1.9 3PG, 3.7 APG, 1.0 SPG, 9.4 PPG
Juan Carlos Navarro (2007-2008): 26.2 MPG, 1.9 3PG, 2.2 APG, 0.6 SPG, 11.0 PPG

In other words, these “point guards” like to chuck the three ball and bring little else to the table. In fact, if I was being completely objective, I might ask why in the world Navarro is even allowed to shoot the three as often as he does. He’s only connecting on 37.3 per cent of his shots from behind the arc, so it’s not like Jason Kapono’s 48.6 per cent success rate this season is in jeopardy.

Which brings us back to La Bomba’s relevance in the fantasy world. Given that the season is winding down, teams in the hunt may be looking to gain some points in one category. If the category of three-pointers is an area of opportunity, Navarro might be your guy. Sitting among the top 20 in three-point attempts per game with 5.1, the Spaniard may be available in deeper leagues and is an easy recommendation for his ability to contribute this year as a “One-Category Filler.”

Did you Notice?

Did you notice…

• That Kevin Durant is shooting 51.9 per cent from the field in the month of March, and 56 per cent in his last four games?
• That Nick Young is averaging 11.5 PPG on 50 per cent shooting in the month of March in only 20.3 MPG?
• That Sean Williams is getting a mere 7.4 MPG worth of run in March?
• That Joakim Noah is averaging 27.8 MPG over his last five games, but has only one block to show for it?
• That Mike Conley is shooting 32.8 per cent from the floor in the month of March?

March 18th, 2008
Categories: BASKETBALL, Next Generation, Steve Simon . Author: Steve Simon . Comments: No Comments