Picking up where we left off last week, when we listed the rookies we ranked five through ten, Next Generation brings you the top five rookie performances of the 2007-08 season.

5. Juan Carlos Navarro, MEM – At 27 years of age, I have mentioned that Navarro is a senior citizen by rookie standards, or the Joe E. Tata of Beverly Hills 90210, if you will.

La Bomba’s main contribution during this season was from behind the arc. JCN fell just two short of Kerry Kittles’ rookie record of 158 treys set in the 1996-97 season, yet he did finish one ahead of Allen Iverson for second place.

Putting Navarro’s season in historical context, there is a striking similarity to the 1996-97 rookie season of Matt Maloney. Maloney, like Navarro, was much older than the average NBA rookie – similar to an Eric Nies in comparison with other The Real World/Road Rules Challenge: Battle of the Sexes 2 competitors — the scrappy 6’3” point guard didn’t enter the league until the age of 25. When comparing the two rookie seasons, one might not like the future of Navarro:

Navarro: 25.8 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 1.9 3PG, 2.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.6 SPG
Maloney: 29.1 MPG, 9.4 PPG, 1.9 3PG, 2.0 RPG, 3.7 APG, 0.6 SPG

In other words, these “point guards” like to chuck the three ball and bring little else to the table.

4. Luis Scola, HOU – No one put it better than former Rocket coach and director of scouting for USA Men’s Basketball Rudy Tomjanovich when he said, “I really like Scola. He’s the kind of guy who doesn’t do anything great but does everything well. He’s smart and he has the size and strength to be an NBA power forward.” Scola became stronger as the season progressed, and contributed mightily during the Rockets’ 22-game winning streak in the absence of Yao Ming.

Scola’s rookie season is comparable to that of Kurt Thomas’s 1995-96 rookie effort:

Scola: 10.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 0.515 FG%, 0.668 FT%
Thomas: 9.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 0.501 FG%, 0.663 FT%

3. Al Horford, ATL – Horford is blessed with an exceptional basketball IQ and anticipation skills, as well as a chiseled frame and extraordinary strength. I expected Horford to be able to contribute in the rebounding category, but his scoring needs to catch up to his brute strength and ability to clean glass. Horford also disappoints in the block category, which is a must among fantasy basketball centres on my team.

Even so, only 15 players since the 1980-81 season have averaged a double-double in their rookie season, and Horford narrowly missed joining the impressive club with an average of 9.7 RPG.

Horford’s rookie season mirrors that of Bill Laimbeer’s in 1980-81:

Horford: 10.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 0.499 FG%, 0.731 FT%
Laimbeer: 9.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 0.503 FG%, 0.765 FT%

2. Jamario Moon, TOR – Since the 1980-81 season, only 30 rookies have averaged at least one block and one steal and Moon became number 31 in this impressive group, averaging 1.4 BPG and 1.0 SPG. Moon’s across the board production narrowly edges the value produced by Horford.

Although their games don’t appear on the surface to have any similarities whatsoever, look at the resemblance between Moon’s rookie season and that of Vlade Divac:

Divac: 8.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 0.499 FG%, 0.708 FT%
Moon: 8.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 0.485 FG%, 0.741 FT%

Moon has some work to do, however, to match Divac’s incredible acting.

1. Kevin Durant, SEA – For Rookie of the Year, it’s Durant and no one else is a close second. Unfortunately for Durant, this season the Sonics found themselves running primarily out of the half-court set rather than operating on the run. Additionally, Durant saw a majority of his time at shooting guard rather than one of the forward positions. Both situations placed him further from the basket and, as a result, Durant’s field goal percentage and rebounding initially suffered. He neither had the strength nor the handle in traffic at this stage in his career to get closer to the hoop, and often times found himself settling for contested shots 18 feet or further from the basket.

KD figured things out after the All-Star break, after which he registered a field goal percentage of 47.6. His final game, though, gave fantasy owners something to drool about over the entire offseason – a line of 42 points, 13 rebounds, six assists, two blocks, one steal, one three-pointer and 18-for-25 shooting from the field. I don’t think it’s a stretch to go as far as to say he has a good chance to be a top 15 player next year at the age of 20.

Don’t believe me? See for yourself, as I compare Durant’s rookie season to the rookie season of LeBron James. Aside from the difference in assists, which you’d expect because LeBron is a primary ballhandler and Durant is not, the categories are fairly close:

James: 20.9 PPG, 0.8 3PG, 5.5 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 0.417 FG%, 0.754 FT%
Durant 20.3 PPG, 0.7 3PG, 4.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 0.43 FG%, 0.873 FT%

As the curtains close on the 2007-2008 NBA season, Next Generation reflects on the top ten freshmen. Working backwards to build the greatest suspense possible, Part One deals with the rookies that rank ten through six. Part Two will cover the top five, which includes the rookie of the year. Note that we’ve taken into consideration our perspective of the player’s long-term impact when compiling these rankings.

Drum roll please…

10. Al Thornton, LAC – Thornton came on strong after the All-Star break, averaging 16.4 PPG. He actually ranks lower on this list because at 24 years of age, he is slightly older than most others and I’m uncertain just how much better he will get.

His rookie season looked similar to the 1989-1990 rookie season of Glen Rice.

Rice: .439 FG%, .734 FT%, 13.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 0.2 3PG
Thornton: .430 FG%, .743 FT%, 12.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 0.5 3PG

Thornton is a fantastic athlete that can score, but takes a lot of shots to get his points. It remains to be seen how he will manage alongside a healthy Elton Brand, Chris Kaman and Tim Thomas – um, well, maybe just Brand and Kaman.

9. Jeff Green, SEA – Yes, his 27-point, ten-rebound performance in his last game of the season was a gem. Yet, as I’ve previously written about Green, he reminds me of Richard Jefferson. RJ, like Green, came into the league at 21 years of age; both are known for their all-around game and superior athleticism; and both were traded on draft day. When comparing their rookie seasons, you can see just how similar their games actually are:

Green: .429 FG%, .744 FT%, 10.5 PPG, 1.5 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 0.3 3PG
Jefferson: .457 FG%, .713 FT%, 9.4 PPG, 1.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 0.2 3PG

So, what does that mean? Assuming that Green’s career takes a similar path as Jefferson’s has, the Sonic youngster will have much more value to his NBA team than he will to fantasy basketball teams. While Jefferson’s range has greatly improved over the years, his lack of steals, rebounds or threes from the forward position leaves a lot to be desired. I have little confidence that Green can do much better than Jefferson, and that means, at best, a $20 fantasy basketball player two to three years down the line.

8. Yi Jianlian, MIL – It’s tough to defend the post All-Star numbers, in which he averaged only 5.0 PPG and 3.5 RPG. However, there are some things to like about Yi. Athletic seven-footers with precision from the outside don’t come around often, and the potential is there for Yi to contribute in virtually every category. The best reason to hold onto Yi in keeper leagues is the similarities of the 1998-1999 season of Dirk Nowitzki, at which point both players entered into the NBA at 20 years of age (we think).

Nowitzki: .405 FG%, .773 FT%, 8.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 0.3 3PG
Jianlian: .421 FG%, .841 FT%, 8.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 0.1 3PG

Thanks to his 7′4″ wingspan, Yi’s steals and rebound contributions should continue to rise as he becomes more accustomed to the NBA.

7. Joakim Noah, CHI – Noah recently delivered a stellar five-game stretch in which he averaged 12.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 1.2 steals, along with a 56.1 FG percentage and 89.5 FT percentage. Most recently, his 18-point, 15-rebound and four-block performance might have been the “Noble One’s” way of crashing the party. A talented passer and a relentless rebounder, Noah stood to gain the most when the Bulls found someone crazy enough to take Ben Wallace’s sizable contract and diminishing skills (thank you, Danny Ferry).

The most positive indication that Noah will contribute regularly is the averages he posted in the month of April – 10.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.6 SPG and 1.4 BPG while shooting over 50 per cent from the field. His rookie season mirrors last year’s rookie season of Paul Millsap.

Millsap: .525 FG%, .673 FT%, 6.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.9 BPG
Noah: .482 FG%, .691 FT%, 6.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.9 BPG

Noah’s progression, just like that of Millsap’s, will ultimately be determined by playing time and where he ranks on the depth chart.

6. Thaddeus Young, PHA – The rookie from Georgia Tech has turned the proverbial corner since Kyle Korver was traded to the Utah Jazz. Turning the keys of the offense over to Louis Williams would create an up-tempo style of play in which the athletic Young would thrive, with more opportunities to beat his man down the floor for easy buckets. Young is missing an outside game, yet still achieved a field goal percentage of 53.8. Just to give you a taste of next year’s potential, he played 35 minutes in the regular season finale and posted 18 points, five assists, four rebounds, two steals, two three-pointers while shooting 58.3 per cent from the floor and going perfect from the line.

Stay tuned for the top five, and feel free to e-mail me with your top five. I’ll gladly debate your selections.

On this, the day of April fools, Next Generation monitors an NBA rookie class that is anything but foolish. In fact, it’s been a while since I can recall handing out this much praise to so many first-year players. This week, we look back on some career-high performances, some rookies staring to hit their strides, and some all-time records that may be in jeopardy.

Did you Notice…

Kevin Durant simply walked right around the rookie wall, and didn’t even break a sweat. In his last five games, KD has managed a 54.5 FG percentage, while averaging 24.2 points and 5.2 rebounds. The Seattle stud seems like a lock to join Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James as the only teenagers to average 20 points or more in their rookie season.

Al Horford is very, very close to averaging a double-double for the season. Currently sporting 10.0 PPG and 9.6 RPG, Big Al could join a select few to do so in their rookie campaign. Since the 1980-1981 season, only 15 freshmen have been able to manage such a feat. Most recently, both Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor joined the club in the 2004-2005 season.

Jordan, Jonathan, Joey, Donny and Danny, a.k.a. The New Kids on the Block, are reuniting and will appear on The Today Show on April 4. Back in the beginning of the season, I thought for a long time about how I should name this column. Before settling on Next Generation, I came very close to naming it “New Kids on the Block” – after all, NBA rookies are the new guys. I think I probably made the right choice….

Luis Scola can play. How’s this for a week – 15.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 53.4 FG%, and 80.0 FT%. The highlight was an 18-point, 18-rebound effort last Wednesday against Minnesota. I guess the Spurs regret the trade they made last July when they sent the rights for Scola along with centre/forward Jackie Butler to the Houston Rockets in return for Vassilis Spanoulis, a future second-round pick, and cash considerations. Spanoulis is doing just fine – in Greece. He was recently named cover player of NBA Live 08, the International version. I kid you not.

Joakim Noah is coming off a stellar five-game stretch in which he averaged 12.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 1.2 steals, along with a 56.1 FG percentage and 89.5 FT percentage. Most recently, his 18-point, 15-rebound and four-block performance might have been the “Noble One’s” way of crashing the party.

NBC’s Friday Night Lights will return for a third season, thank goodness.

Jamario Moon was re-inserted into the starting lineup of the Raptors, and rewarded patient fantasy owners with a line of 15 points, eight rebounds, two blocks and one steal.

After draining five three-pointers in his last five games, Juan Carlos Navarro now has a total of 142 treys. With eight games remaining, JCN needs 17 to surpass Kerry Kittles‘ record of 158 set in the 1996-1997 season. Navarro has averaged 1.9 from long distance and projects to fall short by one, which is typical of anything pertaining to Memphis Grizzlies basketball.

Daequan Cook is averaging 18.5 points, six rebounds and 4.5 threes in his last two games. Yes, it’s a small sample zize, but he could be a strong play down the stretch, particularly on a roster filled with such household names as Blake Ahearn, Stephane Lasme and Joel Anthony.

After setting a career high with 39 points and adding five steals on Saturday, At Thornton followed with a 26-point, seven-rebound outburst on Monday. Thornton flourishes with Tim Thomas on the sidelines, but how his performance fares with the expected return of Elton Brand bears watching.

Nick Young set a career high with 27 points on Sunday, and came back with an 18-point, three-steal performance last night. Young averaged 29 minutes in those last two games in which Antonio Daniels has been on the shelf with a wrist injury.

Next Generation is back, like Heidi Montag on The Hills, but only one of us has a fresh new set of duck lips.

Much like the unrecognizable Montag on last night’s season premiere, I decided to do something a little different this week. Due to an overwhelming positive response to last week’s “Did You Notice” section (thanks, Mom), I submit to my loyal readers a full article of the good stuff.

Did you notice…

Among all teenagers to log at least 15 MPG in their rookie season, Thaddeus Young is on pace to finish with the second best field goal percentage. His 53.3 FG percentage ranks only behind the gargantuan 57.1 per cent posted by Moses Malone in the 1974-75 season.

After sinking 10 three-pointers in 19 attempts over his previous two games going into Monday’s action (in which he drained zero from long distance – which truly makes him maddening), Juan Carlos Navarro now resides in seventh place among all rookie seasons. With 12 games remaining, La Bomba finds himself a mere 21 bombs behind Kerry Kittles’ rookie mark of 158 set in the 1996-97 season.

In the 12 games Kevin Durant has played in the month of March, the Seattle stud has a 53.2 FG percentage to raise his season’s to 42.1, slightly better than LeBron James’ rookie field goal percentage of 41.7. Currently standing at 19.6 PPG, Durant has 13 games remaining to improve that average to the magical mark of 20 PPG.

While many dismissed the rumors that Yi Jianlian was supposedly promised as many as 25 minutes per game in his rookie season by Milwaukee Bucks owner Herb Kohl, “The Next Yao Ming” is currently averaging 25.3 MPG.

As much as I’ve ridiculed Al Horford all season, he actually turned in a very solid week. Over his last four games, he averaged 13 points, 12.5 rebounds, four assists and one block, along with his 60 FG percentage and perfect work from the line. Horford also collected his 20th double-double of the season against Dwight Howard last Saturday. Howard, in case you were wondering, had 32 double-doubles in his rookie season, and that was straight out of high school, of course.

Al Thornton is averaging only 9.2 PPG over his last five, and is shooting just 38.9 per cent from the floor in the month of March.

Since the 1980-81 season, only 30 rookies have averaged at least one block and one steal. Jamario Moon currently resides within this impressive group, averaging 1.4 BPG and 1.0 SPG. Although their games don’t appear on the surface to have any similarities whatsoever, look at the resemblance between Moon’s rookie season and that of Vlade Divac:

Vlade Divac: 8.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 49.9 FG%
Jamario Moon: 8.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 47.3 FG%

Moon has some work to do, however, to match Divac’s incredible trifecta. In the span of just six years, Divac appeared in such cinema magic as Juwanna Mann, Space Jam and Eddie.

With all apologies to The Who, and even fellow RotoRob columnist Andy Goldstein’s latest column, the kids are most certainly not alright. Utilizing the Next Generation’s five-tier ranking system for NBA rookies, the last two columns have been incredibly similar to my girlfriend’s general attitude toward me when I become wrapped up in preparation for my fantasy basketball drafts or become immersed in March Madness and unwittingly don’t pay enough attention to her – sharply critical, fault-finding, and rather condemnatory.

For those that did not have the opportunity to check it out, and I can’t imagine why you haven’t, I developed a system that sorted through the first-year players and helped to categorize what we’ve seen from them up to this point in the season. It goes something like this:

1. Future Stud
2. Solid Performer Worthy of a Starting Role
3. One-Category Filler
4. Potential to Contribute to a Fantasy Team
5. Belongs on the Waiver Wire

This week, we place Juan Carlos Navarro under the spotlight. At 27 years of age, Navarro is a senior citizen by rookie standards, or the Joe E. Tata of Beverly Hills 90210, if you will. (Except, of course, you don’t get any peach pie with Navarro.)

La Bomba’s main contribution this season has been from behind the arc. Through 66 games, JCN has nailed 126 treys. With 16 games remaining, it is conceivable that Navarro can surpass the rookie record for three-pointers in a season. In the 1996-1997 season, Kerry Kittles set the freshman mark for treys with 158. At Navarro’s current pace, he would surpass Allen Iverson for second place with 156. A.I. connected 155 times from downtown during the same season that Kittles set the mark in a year where the kids were alright, apparently.

Putting Navarro’s season in historical context, there is a striking similarity to the 1996-1997 rookie season of Matt Maloney. The career of the Houston Rocket never truly recovered from the smackdown he received at the hands of John Stockton while falling two games short of the 1997 NBA Finals. However, Maloney did hit 154 three-pointers during his rookie season.

Maloney, like Navarro, was much older than the average NBA rookie – similar to an Eric Nies in comparison with other The Real World/Road Rules Challenge: Battle of the Sexes 2 competitors . The scrappy 6′3″ point guard didn’t enter the league until the age of 25. When comparing the two rookie seasons, one might not like the future of Navarro:

Matt Maloney (1996-1997): 29.1 MPG, 1.9 3PG, 3.7 APG, 1.0 SPG, 9.4 PPG
Juan Carlos Navarro (2007-2008): 26.2 MPG, 1.9 3PG, 2.2 APG, 0.6 SPG, 11.0 PPG

In other words, these “point guards” like to chuck the three ball and bring little else to the table. In fact, if I was being completely objective, I might ask why in the world Navarro is even allowed to shoot the three as often as he does. He’s only connecting on 37.3 per cent of his shots from behind the arc, so it’s not like Jason Kapono’s 48.6 per cent success rate this season is in jeopardy.

Which brings us back to La Bomba’s relevance in the fantasy world. Given that the season is winding down, teams in the hunt may be looking to gain some points in one category. If the category of three-pointers is an area of opportunity, Navarro might be your guy. Sitting among the top 20 in three-point attempts per game with 5.1, the Spaniard may be available in deeper leagues and is an easy recommendation for his ability to contribute this year as a “One-Category Filler.”

Did you Notice?

Did you notice…

• That Kevin Durant is shooting 51.9 per cent from the field in the month of March, and 56 per cent in his last four games?
• That Nick Young is averaging 11.5 PPG on 50 per cent shooting in the month of March in only 20.3 MPG?
• That Sean Williams is getting a mere 7.4 MPG worth of run in March?
• That Joakim Noah is averaging 27.8 MPG over his last five games, but has only one block to show for it?
• That Mike Conley is shooting 32.8 per cent from the floor in the month of March?

Last week, I debuted my Next Generation five-tier ranking system for NBA rookies. For those that did not have the opportunity to read it, I developed a system that sorted through the first-year players and helped to categorize what we’ve seen from them up to this point in the season. They were:

1. Future Stud
2. Solid Performer Worthy of a Starting Role
3. One-Category Filler
4. Potential to Contribute to a Fantasy Team
5. Belongs on the Waiver Wire

Little did I know that my placement of Al Horford in the “Solid Performer Worthy of a Starting Role” would create such a hullabaloo. My inbox was filled with hate mail, asking me to consider his play of late with the acquisition of a true point guard in the form of Mike Bibby. It’s not so much that I don’t appreciate what Horford does for the Hawks. My concern, however, is what he does and will do in future years for my fantasy basketball team. Does he shoot over 50 per cent? Nope. Does he block shots? Negative. Does he seem to have any range whatsoever or good footwork on the post? Not this guy. Feel free to use him as a second centre in deep leagues, but you’re on your own if you’re going to consider him in keeper leagues.

Start preparing your hate mail now, because I’m calling out another rookie for whom I can see the writing on the wall – and it’s not pretty. Jeff Green is logging 26.0 MPG, but he’s not leaving much of an impression now or for the future.

Green reminds me so much of Richard Jefferson. RJ, like Green, came into the league at 21 years of age; both are known for their all-around game and superior athleticism; and both were traded on draft day. As a matter of fact, when comparing their rookie seasons, you can see just how similar their games actually are:

Green: 26.0 MPG, .436 FG%, .702 FT%, 9.2 PPG, 1.3 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 0.2 3PG
Jefferson: 24.3 MPG, .457 FG%, .713 FT%, 9.4 PPG, 1.8 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 0.2 3PG

So, what does that mean? Assuming that Green’s career takes a similar path as Jefferson’s has, the Sonic youngster, like Horford, will have much more value to his NBA team than he will to fantasy basketball teams. While Jefferson’s range has greatly improved over the years, his lack of steals, rebounds or threes from the forward position leave a lot to be desired. I have little confidence that Green can do much better than Jefferson, and that means, at best, a $20 fantasy basketball player two to three years down the line. But, hey, at least Seattle fans have Kevin Durant. For the foreseeable future, Green “Belongs on the Waiver Wire,” unless you’re in a pretty darned deep league.

Who’s Hot

Jamario Moon, SF, Toronto Raptors: Here is quite possibly the safest rookie option for fantasy basketball owners down the stretch. He’s not going to hurt you in any categories, and he gives you the rare steals and blocks reminiscent of vintage Andrei Kirilenko. Over his last five games, Moon has averaged 2.2 steals along with 1.8 blocks. Don’t overlook the stellar percentages (.538 FG% and .800 FT%), along with his 9.6 PPG over this stretch. I’ve got my eye on him for fantasy rookie of the year.

Keep An Eye On

Spencer Hawes, C, Sacramento Kings: Big man, you’ve got my attention. The minutes are starting to come his way, and he’s making the most of them. Averaging a staggering three blocks per game in his last four contests, Hawes’ finest moment was his contribution in Sacramento’s victory over the Lakers, when he had 14 points, eight rebounds, four blocks, three assists, and one steal on 7-of-11 from the floor. With Brad Miller once again physically breaking down, Hawes is a very worthy pickup.

During last week’s first annual Rookie Wall Seminar, I took to task Kevin Durant, Yi Jianlian, Jeff Green, Al Horford, Sean Williams, Juan Carlos Navarro and Rodney Stuckey. My concern, at the time, was that these six NBA rookies were approaching “the wall.” Two of these guys responded with what I would consider to be solid weeks since the tongue-lashing.

In the same article, I handed out praise to Al Thornton, Jamario Moon and Thaddeus Young. Every one of them followed up with a miserable week.

Such is the expectation of a rookie season in the NBA – up one week, down the next. The seemingly truest definition of an NBA rookie is that, in almost every case, no one has a freakin’ idea what the heck to expect from one week to the next.

From a fantasy basketball perspective, this rookie class can be divided into a few categories. They are:

1. Future Stud
2. Solid Performer Worthy of a Starting Role
3. One-Category Filler
4. Potential to Contribute to a Fantasy Team
5. Belongs on the Waiver Wire

Let’s take a look at the two rookies that have been competing for Rookie of the Year honours, and figure out where they belong in this week’s edition of Next Generation.

Kevin Durant: Everyone has knocked Durant off his perch, and placed Al Horford in pole position for this year’s NBA Rookie of the Year. As bad as Durant’s field goal percentage has been this season, and as strong as Horford’s play has been of late, I honestly can’t see how anyone worthy of their paycheck can compare the two. Sure, Durant has been miserable from the floor, clicking at a woeful 40 per cent this season. Yet, at this very moment, Durant’s 19.4 PPG ranks him 20th among all NBA rookies in the past 25 years. It’s also worth noting at how eerily similar his rookie averages compare with those of Jamaal Mashburn’s:

Durant: 19.4 PPG, 17.1 FGA, .400 FG%, 4.1 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.9 3PG
Mashburn: 19.2 PPG, 17.5 FGA, .406 FG%, 4.5 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.1 3PG

Mashburn had a solid, if not spectacular NBA season, ultimately wrecked by injuries. Where Durant fans have hope is that he is two years younger than Mashburn was in his rookie season. Durant has also not filled out his frame – I’ve seen way too many instances in which he was muscled into shots that he didn’t want to take. It’s because of Durant’s across the board potential and likely rigorous off-season routine that I see no reason not to consider him a Future Stud.

Al Horford: Everyone is saying such nice things about Horford. He comes to play every night, he plays like a veteran, blah, blah, blah. When you look at his numbers, and put aside that he brings it every night, is there really much to be excited about? Through 56 games this season, Horford has had major up and downs. Yet, one thing that is glaringly absent is the blocks – one per game. Typically, shot blockers make their presence known right out of the gate. It’s not something that you figure out how to do with experience – either you’re a shot blocker or you’re not. What I’m getting at is that Horford isn’t. If you’re a Hawks’ fan, which I doubt you are, you may not want to look at this next comparison.

Horford: 9.6 PPG, .477 FG%, .688 FT%, 10.0 RPG, 1.2 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG
J.R. Reid: 11.1 PPG, .440 FG%, .664 FT%, 8.4 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.7 BPG

Both players entered their rookie seasons at age 21, and had similar height and weight measurements. These similarities do not bode well for Horford. Consider him to be a Solid Performer Worthy of a Starting Role, but nothing more. Horford may help fill a centre position in deeper leagues, but in keeper leagues he is not the guy I’d be building around.

In the weeks to come, I’ll be placing more of the rookies into the five categories and looking at additional historical comparisons.

Before I begin, I’d like to excuse Al Thornton. Al, February has been your finest month. In fact, you’ve averaged nearly 18 PPG in your last five, along with solid rebounding and percentages. Go home.

Jamario Moon – you can leave, too. I see you’ve jumped right over the wall. Over your last five games, you’ve scored 12.2 PPG, averaged over a steal and a block per game, grabbed 7.0 RPG, nailed six three-pointers, and posted spectacular percentages. You’re excused.

Finally, Thaddeus Young is free to leave. In February, you’ve shot an astonishing 59.6 per cent from the floor, while racking up 11.5 PPG with 6.3 RPG and you’ve actually ripped 1.8 SPG over your last five. Good job.

Uh, sit down, Kevin Durant. Where do you think you’re going? Do you realize you’re shooting 36.9 per cent from the floor in the month of February, while only grabbing 4.0 RPG and managing to connect on only four three-pointers? In addition, the 17.3 PPG this month is the lowest of any month in your rookie season thus far. That’s not getting it done for your fantasy owners.

Yi Jianlian, now that you’ve mastered the art of using a chair, keep sitting. You’ve averaged 8.0 PPG this month, along with only 4.3 RPG and 0.4 BPG. You realize these games count, right? Do you also realize that there are 26 more games this season?

Everyone wants to praise you, Al Horford, but not me. Over your last five games, you’re averaging less than a block per game and shooting just 43.9 per cent from the floor. If you’re going to play the centre position, these are two areas you’re going to have to drastically improve before you can be considered a viable fantasy option. I’m not going to even mention the 8.0 PPG over that stretch.

Where is Jeff Green? Mr. Green – how is it possible that in your last five games, you’ve managed a total of one block and zero steals? You’re also shooting just 60 per cent from the free throw line. With the trade of Kurt Thomas, I expect your minutes to rise so I expect you to contribute at least something on the defensive end.

Hey, Sean Williams. Fantasy owners count on you for at least a major contribution in one category. For you, owners count on you to block some shots. Explain to me how you can go five games with a total of four blocks? Let’s not even mention the 3.4 RPG over your last five. You’re much bigger than I am, so I’ll move on to someone smaller, such as…

Juan Carlos Navarro, or should I call you “uan” because you definitely haven’t had a “J” of late. You’re shooting 35.2 per cent from the floor over your last five games, with only five three-pointers made during that period. Similar to what I was telling Mr. Williams, you’re a specialist. If you’re not nailing threes, why should any fantasy owner keep you active?

Finally, let me single out Rodney Stuckey. The Pistons finally give you some minutes, and what do you do? You proceed to shoot 22.8 per cent from the floor and score a measly 6.6 PPG in your last five in 18.8 MPG. I can’t even blame this on hitting the rookie wall – you didn’t see your first minute of action until the end of December!

Remember, guys – I’m tough on you because I care. I know your college seasons would have been completed by now, but you’re in the NBA and fantasy owners are counting on some of you down the stretch. I also believe that, for the first time, the Rookie of the Year award is open for debate. Make me proud. Class is dismissed.

Newsworthy Rookie News

Yao Ming’s stress fracture — an injury that could keep him out for the rest of the season — is crappy news for a Rocket team that has been on a major roll of late. But for rookie lovers, it’s great news. Luis Scola is going to move over to centre, and fellow freshman Carl Landry will also see some time at the five. Scola is already playing over 25 MPG this month with at least 30 minutes of action in three of the past four. Count on that going up, and considering the Argentine is pouring in over 11 PPG with 6.4 RPG this month, I’d recommend scooping him off the wires.

Landry is also starting to see significant minutes off the bench, and is expected to get even more with Yao out. The rookie is starting to show promise as a fantasy commodity since scoring 19 points vs. Miami last week and then following that up with an 11-rebound game against the Hornets. Keep your eye on him, as he’s starting to show double-double potential and is someone who will definitely help in FG percentage (61.6 per cent for the season). I’m not suggesting a claim yet, but put him on your watch list for sure.

Sean Williams: Williams put up 17 points, 10 rebounds, and one electrifying dunk after receiving his own pass off the backboard. In the second half of the season, I believe his fantasy value will take a hit with the acquisition of DeSagana Diop and the loss of Jason Kidd (assuming this deal finally goes through). However, this one game and the highlight of the game have earned him an A.

Kevin Durant: In 26 minutes, Durant scored 23 points, grabbed eight rebounds, and added four assists and two steals while shooting 10-of-19 from the floor. The five turnovers don’t matter in a game that doesn’t count. He earned an A- for the across-the-board performance, but lost a perfect score because of his inability to lead his team to a victory (just like with the Supersonics).

Al Horford: No stranger to the big stage after winning two championships while attending Florida, Horford scored 19 points and grabbed seven boards, while missing only two shots along the way. “I love this kid, man,” said Caron Bulter. “I love his game. He’s a banger. Old-school style. He’s the kind of young kid every team loves to have.” Big Al earned an A-, and his prospects for a solid second half just improved with the acquisition of Mike Bibby.

Jamario Moon: Moon put up 13 points, with his only two misses coming on his unlikely three-point attempts. He received only 18 minutes off the bench, but the 27-year-old brought his Harlem Globetrotter background to the exhibition, flashing his athleticism and earning himself a solid B.

Juan Carlos Navarro: Navarro overcame a shaky first half to lead all international players with 14 points, along with four rebounds and four assists, while adding two 3-pointers and two steals in only 19 minutes. JCN also earned a B.

Yi Jianlian: Yi missed some dunks, and provided a new meaning to “pu-pu platter,” scoring eight only points, and adding a paltry two rebounds, one assist, and a steal in 23 minutes. The big man appeared to be nervous, yet this type of game is not tailor-made for his style of play. At this stage of his career, he’s much more comfortable launching shots from the perimeter. I found it particularly strange when Charles Barkley chose Yi after being asked to choose one player on the floor to build a team around. Yi earns a C- (while Barkley gets an F).

Mike Conley: On the surface, Conley’s game was nothing to brag about – two points, eight assists and five turnovers. Upon further evaluation, the point guard’s role in these games is to push the tempo and set up others for spectacular dunks and he did both. Conley’s line is also somewhat similar to Chris Paul’s line one year ago of eight points, 11 assists and six turnovers. Conley also receives a C-.

Jeff Green: Somehow, Green managed to earn 34 minutes of action, yet he only scored nine points and secured five rebounds in a game in which no defense was played. His first half was absolutely brutal. Green earned a D.

Luis Scola: Four points and three rebounds? Couldn’t they have given us someone who would have showed just a little enthusiasm, such as Joakim Noah? Scola receives an F.

The NBA trade deadline is rapidly approaching (February 22), and we’ve already seen Pau Gasol, Shawn Marion and Shaquille O’Neal moved in NBA landscape-changing deals. Before the next trade is made, the time is now to identify the rookies that stand to gain the most from additional manoeuvres. Next Generation has listed five first-year players that may receive a boost in value based upon trades that may happen over the next week and a half. Unsuspecting owners may now be likely to trade away these five for next to nothing, but the same cannot be said after some rumoured trades take place.

Without further ado, let’s count up:

5. Javaris Crittenton, PG, Memphis Grizzlies: The Gasol trade was widely panned by coaches and GMs throughout the league, particularly those competing with the Lakers for playoff positioning. Therefore, Crittenton will be given every opportunity by the Grizzlies to prove that the trade was not nearly as lopsided as everyone figured it to be.

Area of Opportunity: Memphis makes another trade before the deadline — If Mike Miller or any of Crittenton’s teammates residing in Memphis’ crowded backcourt situation get moved, I figure the 2006 McDonald’s All-American will see some minutes at both the one and the two. The Grizzlies have to sell the Gasol trade to their fans, and their best hope is to convince them that the team’s future is bright. Therefore, I have to believe Crittenton will be the beneficiary of additional minutes as they become available.

4. Thadeus Young, SF, Philadelphia 76ers: Over his last five games through Sunday evening, Young has averaged 31.6 MPG, scored 12.6 PPG and grabbed 6.0 RPG, along with an astonishing 58.7 FG% and 75% from the free-throw line. The rookie from Georgia Tech has turned the proverbial corner since Kyle Korver was traded to the Utah Jazz.

Area of Opportunity: Andre Miller is traded — Turning the keys of the offense over to Louis Williams would create an up-tempo style of play that Philadelphia has not seen since Allen Iverson was in town. The athletic Young would thrive at a quicker pace, with more opportunities to beat his man down the floor for easy buckets. Williams and Young are the future of this franchise, and Young owners should hope to begin this era sooner rather than later.

3. Juan Carlos Navarro, G, Memphis Grizzlies: Averaging nearly 29 MPG since Gasol was traded to the Lakers, Navarro figures to receive a consistent and healthy dose of minutes in the second half of the season. The Grizzlies have even experimented with a three-guard alignment featuring Mike Conley, Jr., Crittenton and Navarro.

Area of Opportunity: Miller is traded — Should Miller be dealt, more minutes and certainly more shot opportunities will fall into Navarro’s lap. Navarro’s friendship with Gasol was one of the main reasons he left the Spanish Pro League to play for the Grizzlies. As a result, I believe GM Chris Wallace feels an obligation to give Navarro consistent minutes after he assured him that the team didn’t consider he and Gasol to be a package deal. Wallace insinuated that Navarro could still be a prominent part of the team’s plans, depending on what happens in the offseason.

2. Sean Williams, PF, New Jersey Nets: Williams was replaced in the starting lineup on February 8 by Nenad Krstic, but the rookie has played inspired basketball in the two games since (13.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 73% FG) . Playing behind Krstic gives Williams an opportunity to be utilized in favorable matchups and provide a spark off the bench.

Area of Opportunity: Jason Kidd is not traded and finishes the season with the Nets — If Kidd plays out the string in New Jersey, he may try to prove every team wrong that did not deem him worthy enough of a fair offer for Rod Thorn’s consideration. An angry and motivated Kidd makes everyone around him better, particularly those like Williams that are athletic enough to run the floor alongside the captain.

1. Joakim Noah, C, Chicago Bulls: While Noah’s play has been as erratic as his minutes, he’s posted some notable lines over the last several games. In particular, his 10 points and seven rebounds in a loss to Sacramento and six points and 10 rebounds in a defeat of Golden State provided merely a glimpse into his vast potential.

Area of Opportunity: Ben Wallace is traded — Some of the impetus to move Wallace is that Noah is the team’s centre of the future. A talented passer and a relentless rebounder, Noah perhaps stands to gain the most if the Bulls could find someone crazy enough to take Wallace and his sizable contract and diminishing skills (think GM Isiah Thomas).

It’s decision time. Now is the time in the season when you are forced to make a decision. Do you think your team has what it takes to win it all, or do you pack it in and look toward next season? This column can help with whatever course of action you decide to take. I’ve listed alternatives at each position for both options – those fantasy owners that are looking for a second half surge in their quest for the title, and those that may decide to stockpile young talent that will be in position to make significant contributions down the road.

Centre

Second Half

Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks: Never mind that the Atlanta Hawks’ offense is geared towards everyone but Horford. Big Al prefers to get the ball as it caroms off the glass. Averaging nearly a double-double (9.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG), Horford has also chipped in with 0.95 SPG and 1.10 BPG, and is pulling down 11.8 RPG over his last five. The Godfather, as Billy Donovan calls him, is looking at the rookie wall and plowing right through it as if it were T.J. Ford.

Keeper Leagues

Sean Williams, New Jersey Nets: When I’m building a team, I want a centre who can block shots. Williams is swatting an average of 2.1 in just 21.0 MPG, and he runs the floor like a gazelle. The Nets are in rebuilding mode and figure to include Williams significantly in their plans. If Area 51 can commit to the game of basketball and figure out a way to score some points in the paint, his potential far exceeds Horford’s.

Power Forward

Second Half

Jeff Green, Seattle Supersonics: Although Luis Scola has played well when Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady have missed games due to injury, it’s Green that will be guaranteed starter’s minutes in the second half of the season. The first half has not been Green’s finest work, but the Supersonics figure to try to pry themselves from the contracts of Wally Szczerbiak and/or Damien Wilkins, giving Green the opportunity to learn on the job with more minutes. The Green Monster figures to help teams across many categories, rather than dominating any particular one.

Keeper Leagues

Yi Jianlian, Milwaukee Bucks: Yi has the rare inside and outside potential that should have fantasy owners in keeper leagues drooling. He shot 50 per cent from the floor and 81 per cent from the free throw line during the month of December, including a 29-point outburst on 14-of-17 shooting. Yi also blocked 1.8 shots per game that month, just providing a glimpse into the future after his body has further developed and he adjusts to the NBA game. He figures, at the very least, to provide stellar percentages, while blocking shots, rebounding and scoring at a high level. At the very least, consider him a taller version of Keith Van Horn.

Small Forward

Second Half

Kevin Durant, Seattle Supersonics: Seattle’s loss to Sacramento Monday night was a microcosm of Durant’s rookie season. Amidst Seattle’s franchise record 14th consecutive loss, Durant led the team with 19 points on only 5-of-20 from the field, while chipping in with five rebounds, four assists and three steals. If you can overlook his putrid 40 per cent field goal percentage, KD will provide plenty in other categories to help your team in the second half.

Keeper Leagues

Durant: For keeper league owners, there is only once choice. Within the next year or two, there is no doubt that Durant will be finding himself among the top 10 to 15 fantasy basketball players on the planet. K-Dog has the rare ability to contribute in virtually every category. Required off-season reading for Durant: Muscle and Fitness, Men’s Health and Flex Magazine.

Shooting Guard

Second Half

Jamario Moon, Toronto Raptors: No, Apollo 33 is not really a two-guard, but many fantasy sites show him as G/F eligible, so he gets the nod here. He is showing no signs of slowing down. In January, Moon is averaging 8.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, along with 1.5 SPG and 1.5 BPG. His across-the-board production and consistent minutes make him a safe bet to deliver in the second half.

Keeper Leagues

Juan Carlos Navarro, Memphis Grizzlies: Plain and simple, Navarro will take and make a lot of shots. Problem is, his minutes are at the mercy of Pau Gasol and Darko Milicic. If the Grizzlies do completely commit to small-ball and play Navarro alongside Mike Conley and Mike Miller, he figures to be a huge fantasy asset. While I typically don’t like to accumulate shooting guards on my team, the ones I do keep an eye on are the ones that make a lot of three-pointers. In his last five games, La Bomba is averaging three per game and has averaged 2.1 per game this season in only 24.7 MPG.

Point Guard

Second Half

Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies: Think Tony Parker lite (sans Eva, naturellement), with expectations for continued development as the year progresses. In January, Conley is averaging 10.3 PPG, 5.4 APG, 3.0 RPG, and 1.2 SPG. These numbers only figure to improve, while Memphis’ up tempo style will help Conley accumulate significant assists, sneaky rebound totals and double-digit points the remainder of the season.

Keeper Leagues

Conley: He’s a pure point guard that looks to create for others, yet has unrivaled speed among his rookie class. In limited play thus far, his outside shot has been slightly better than advertised. Remember, he left Ohio State after his freshman season, so he’s still fairly raw. However, the finished product will deliver in precisely the categories a point guard should, and he’s going to far surpass the aforementioned Parker in the fantasy world by adding significant steals and the occasional three-pointer. But sorry, still no Eva to speak of…yet.

We have a first here at Next Generation – a repeat performer, both among the rising and the falling. This is particularly rare because the one thing we do know about rookies is that they are very likely to be inconsistent. Someone mentioned as rising one week may very likely find themselves among the falling the following week. The idea is to stay ahead of the curve and find rookies who are either playing consistent minutes, receiving an opportunity for expanded minutes, or appear on the verge of taking their game to another level. Last week, I mentioned Thaddeus Young as someone to keep an eye on and, while his week was nothing special, he did flourish Monday night in 30 minutes of action. He’s a perfect example of an opportunity to find a low-risk, high-reward rookie that can pay huge dividends down the road. Now, onto this week’s edition…

Rising

Jamario Moon, SF, Toronto Raptors: Thanks to an average of 10.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 1.8 assists and 1.6 steals through nine games in January, Moon is the first among those featured in Next Generation to receive back-to-back acclaim among the rising. Moon earned this week’s nod thanks to the damage he’s done on the court over the last two games – nine points, five rebounds, five steals, and three blocks vs. the Hawks on Friday, followed up by 17 points, nine rebounds, two steals and one three-pointer against the 76ers Saturday.

I still believe, as I mentioned in my first article, that Moon will be the most consistent rookie contributor overall behind Kevin Durant throughout this season. Perhaps he will receive some much-deserved recognition after he wins the slam-dunk contest during All Star weekend in New Orleans.

Sean Williams, PF, New Jersey Nets: My beloved New Jersey Nets are sinking faster than Jessica Simpson’s “acting” career, but you can’t fault Sean Williams. The man known as “Area 51″ is still inconsistent, but his minutes are no longer a concern and he has a firm hold on a starting role. In a thrilling overtime loss to the Clippers on Saturday, Williams scored 11 points and grabbed 11 rebounds while blocking six shots and giving Chris Kaman fits all night long. With an average of 11.8 PPG over his last four, along with 6.25 RPG and 2.75 BPG, Williams is beginning to earn the trust of fantasy owners again.

Falling

Kevin Durant, SF, Seattle Supersonics: Last night, Durant turned in his third straight game rife with dreadful shooting, scoring only 12 points on 4-for-13 shooting (he’s now only 14-of-52 over this span). In fact, the month of January has been particularly unkind to Durant. He’s shooting 38.1 per cent from the field over those 10 games, and just 23.5 per cent from long distance. He’s scored only 18 points over his last two games, and he seemingly has hit the wall more suddenly and viciously than Pamela Anderson. If you can ride the waves of inconsistency with KD, your patience will ultimately be rewarded down the road.

Keep an Eye on

Juan Carlos Navarro, PG, Memphis Grizzlies: How do you reward someone who averages 22.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 4.3 APG with 1.0 SPG over his last three games? Naturally, you demote him to the bench in favour of Darko Milicic. Going into last night’s action, Navarro sank five three-pointers per game over the last five, but with the Grizzlies managing only one victory in that span, head coach Marc Iavaroni decided to tinker with the Grizzlies’ starting lineup, leaving fantasy owners of La Bomba to pay the consequences.

On Monday, Navarro played as many minutes as Milicic (16) in a Grizzlies victory over Chicago. JCN only scored nine points, all coming on treys, but it appears as if he only has value in the event that Milicic or Paul Gasol miss time. He’ll still contribute from long range, yet his overall numbers will significantly decline in limited minutes.

Jeff Green, SF, Seattle Supersonics: Hold on – we may have something here. A small sample size notwithstanding, The Predator had a game on Monday that bears watching for a couple of reasons. First, he played a total of 35 minutes. Second, he took more shots than did any of the Seattle Supersonics – no small feat when you play alongside Durant and Wally Szczerbiak. All in all, Green’s line consisted of 15 points on 7-of-17 shooting from the floor, along with four rebounds and four assists. With Durant struggling mightily, Green may get a chance to assert himself and give fantasy owners a better idea of what he can do. Be advised to add him to your team now while his value may still be low and you will reap the rewards, as Green has the rare ability to contribute in multiple categories and that’s just what he will do as the season progresses.

This installment of Next Generation focuses on one Bulls bad boy (making Dennis Rodman smile), one high riser, one rebounding machine, and two future studs hitting a rough patch. Without further ado…

Rising

Jamario Moon, SF, Toronto Raptors: Moon, like Al Horford, enjoyed a successful week for a multitude of reasons. For starters, Moon was selected to participate in the slam dunk contest during All-Star weekend. Moon, who first dunked in the sixth grade, additionally received a recent spike in minutes and he has not wasted the opportunity. He’s averaging 40 MPG over his last four contests, while contributing added 10.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.5 BPG and 1.0 SPG over that span. The scoring will be inconsistent, but he will add plenty in other categories, particularly blocks, to be a relevant rookie fantasy contributor.

Al Horford, PF, Atlanta Hawks: What a week for Horford. Not only was he chosen by Midway Games to grace the cover of NBA Ballers, but he did some ballin’ of his own. Over his last four games, Horford has averaged a whopping 14 rebounds, including a career high 19 boards in an overtime loss to Washington. As Horford continues to learn, the second half of the season should feature considerably more games like the one he had against Cleveland, scoring 10 points and grabbing 15 boards, along with two blocks.

Falling

Kevin Durant, SF, Seattle Supersonics: Last night’s 6-for-26 shooting line comes off the heels of perhaps Durant’s worst week in the NBA thus far. In last week’s two-game stint, KD shot 33 per cent from the floor, grabbed a grand total of five rebounds, and did not register a three-pointer. Perhaps the twisted ankle he suffered against Cleveland on Tuesday is partly to blame, maybe he is tiring from carrying the scoring load, or he could just be lovesick. After last week’s game against the New Jersey Nets, Durant said of one famous spectator, “I was just staring,” at Beyoncé, whom he says is his favorite celebrity. “Somebody had to come over and say, ‘K.D., come on.’ The whole game I couldn’t look over there because I was going to stare at her the whole time. I really love her.” Alrighty.

Yi Jianlian, PF, Milwaukee Bucks: The reigning Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month averaged 12.1 points and 6.6 rebounds in December. January, however, has not been as kind to Yi. The former Guangdong Southern Tiger has hit a rough patch – over his last five games, he has shot 33.3 per cent from the floor, averaged 7.0 PPG (in three of those games he scored two, four, and six points respectively), and grabbed 3.4 RPG. Last night’s line of six points and three rebounds on 2-for-8 shooting has become the norm of late for Yi, who has only cracked double-digits in scoring twice over his last seven games.

Keep an Eye on

Joakim Noah, PF, Chicago Bulls: On the surface, given Noah’s two-game suspension for telling off assistant coach Ron Adams and his difficulties with punctuality, one might assume Noah’s stock has taken a nosedive. However, I have a hunch that this may reverse the steady decline that has defined Noah’s rookie season in the NBA. Perhaps he needed a wakeup call such as this to get him going, and maybe his inconsistent playing time was a result of his behaviour behind the scenes. If Noah can prove to the coaching staff that he has come away from this debacle with a lesson learned, perhaps he will finally receive the minutes that he will need to ultimately have some value. This next week or two will be critical to see how Noah responds.

Welcome back for the first Next Generation of 2008. To ring in the new year, the rooks put together an exciting video for my readers that will amaze and at the same time repulse. I don’t want to name names, but one Seattle rookie performs the worst robot of all-time.

Spotlight: Mike Conley, Jr.

“Guess which hand is my strong hand.” – Conley, on his Yardbarker blog.

How Did we Get Here?

As a freshman at Ohio State, Conley was the premier college point guard in the country. Conley’s Buckeyes were defeated in their quest for a National Championship at the hands of the Florida Gators despite his 20 points, six assists and four steals. A stellar performance of 16.0 points, 4.8 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.0 steals in six NCAA Tournament games was good enough to convince Conley and his father/agent, the same Mike Conley, Sr. that was a 1992 Olympic Gold Medalist, to declare for the NBA Draft. Conley Jr. was selected fourth overall by the Memphis Grizzlies. Incidentally, Conley Sr. was one of the best dunkers I’ve ever seen.

Where Does he Fit on the Team?

After being mentored under Mike D’Antoni, first-year coach Marc Iavaroni has installed an up-tempo scheme. His Grizzlies opened the season with several point guards on the team, including Damon Stoudamire, Tarence Kinsey, Kyle Lowry, and Juan Carlos Navarro. While there is debate as to whether or not the current roster suits the frenetic style, Conley’s speed and decision making in an up-tempo style should suit him as well as any of the aforementioned point guard options. Ultimately, there is only one ball and tough decisions have to be made before determining who receives the lion share of minutes running the show. The fact that Stoudamire is being discussed in trade rumours fuels hope that this situation will ultimately work itself out.

What He Can Do

By averaging 11.4 points, 5.2 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game in the Vegas Summer League, Conley proved he belongs. After averaging 5.6 points and 4.2 assists in his first five games in the NBA, Conley suffered a shoulder injury that sidelined him for the next 20 games. Upon Conley’s return, Stoudamire was placed on the inactive list. Conley has started two games and, in 34.5 MPG, has demonstrated the strengths that made him such a special player just one year ago. With steady minutes, Conley will rack up the assists and steals, as he did last season by leading the Big Ten Conference in both categories. Conley’s 51.8 FG% last season was high for a point guard, and given his speed and the ease with which he can get to the hoop and finish, the field goal category may become a strength not unlike the way it is for Tony Parker.

What He Can’t Do

A majority of Conley’s shortcomings are related to poor percentages. He only shot 69.4 per cent from the free-throw line last year, while only making 30.4 per cent behind the arc. Not unlike Al Horford, Conley at times can become too willing to defer to teammates and has a tendency to be overly willing to set up teammates rather than creating opportunities for himself. He may also be battling on the Grizzlies’ depth charts for minutes, while also contending with historical data that suggests the point guard position is awfully difficult to master after just one college season. Finally, the jury is still out on whether or not Conley can put points up on the board without an outside game. The 20-year-old registered 11.3 PPG one season ago.

How Do You Like Me Now?

There is a lot to like about Conley’s game and his promotion to starting point guard for the running Grizzlies. He would appear to be the point guard to build with to implement the breakneck pace. While subjecting myself once again to Eric Reid’s awful play-by-play during Sunday’s game vs. the Miami Heat, not only did I notice how much Reid sounds like Carnac the Magnificent, but I also was able to get my first glimpse of the speedy Conley. Assuming Conley remains the starting point guard, he will average six assists in his sleep and will excel in the steals category. As he become more accustomed to the NBA, he can get to the hoop whenever he wants as long as Mike Miller and Navarro force Memphis’ opponents to spread the floor. There is also the potential to grab three to four rebounds per game given his quick reactions to the ball.

Simon Says

Similar to the way he grabbed the starting point guard responsibilities for the Grizzlies, I see no reason why Conley won’t do the same for fantasy basketball owners as soon as the second half of the season commences. The player that I find myself comparing Conley to is Parker, yet Conley has a greater upside. Conley should dish more assists than Parker, while finding himself among the league leaders in steals. The area in which Conley needs to improve is his outside shooting, and there’s an awful lot of work to do. Still, only six point guards in the history of the wonderful NB of A averaged 6.5 APG or more in their rookie season – Chris Paul, Stephon Marbury, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, T.J. Ford, and Mike Bibby. With a trio of talented scorers in Memphis consisting of Pau Gasol, Miller and Rudy Gay, Conley has a realistic chance to join this esteemed group. Now is the time to grab or trade for him if he is available in your league. Today he is a consistent contributor in assists and steals, but with considerable experience and a summer to work on his shooting, Conley should become a fantasy stud.

Player his Fantasy Numbers most Currently Resemble

His freshman numbers across the board last season are incredibly similar to those of Baron Davis’ freshman year at UCLA. They both played their rookie season in the NBA at the age of 20.

Davis (97-98 UCLA): 31.3 MPG, 52.9 FG%, 30.8 3P%, 67.6 FT%, 4.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, 0.4 BGP, 2.4 SPG, 11.7 PPG

Conley (06-07 OSU): 31.6 MPG, 51.8 FG%, 30.4 3P%, 69.4 FT%, 3.4 RPG, 6.1 APG, 0.3 BPG, 2.2 SPG, 11.3 PPG

Rising

Mike Conley Jr., PG, Memphis Grizzlies: I really do like Conley as a keeper, but I also see a lot of value this year. Count on a lot of assists and steals, surprisingly nice rebounding totals, and a fine FG% regardless of his dreadful outside shooting. His last three games have him logging 35 MPG with 6.3 APG and 4.3 RPG, along with 2.0 SPG. I promise not to mention Conley again for at least a week.

Daequan Cook, SG, Miami Heat: I wasn’t kidding when I told you to keep an eye on him, and with Jason Williams and Dwyane Wade sidelined with various injuries, Cook took advantage of some extra minutes and proved that he can shoot the three. He’s earned 29.6 MPG over last five, while nailing 11 from downtown and pouring in 11.0 PPG. It does, however, remain to be seen if he earns steady minutes once the backcourt is at full strength.

Falling

Joakim Naoh, C, Chicago Bulls: I’m disappointed that I have to add him here, but he hasn’t scored in his last two games and has only been on the court for a total of 18 minutes during that time. Currently behind Joe Smith, Tyrus Thomas, Aaron Gray and Ben Wallace , the rook seemingly will need to simply wait in line.

Juan Carlos Navarro, G, Memphis Grizzlies: Conley’s return does nothing to help owners of Navarro. He’s only averaging 14.0 MPG over his last three and in two of those games he finished without a three-pointer. If he’s not hitting those, he’s virtually useless on your squad.

Keep An Eye On

Thaddeus Young, SF, Philadelphia 76ers: He will not be a secret for much longer. Compared favourably in some circles to Paul Pierce, Young has played 24 MPG over his last two and narrowly missed his first double-double in each game. He is as quick and as athletic as anyone in last year’s draft and the potential of watching him and Louis Williams develop should give Sixer fans plenty to cheer about.

On this Christmas edition of Next Generation, I am suffering from slight basketball withdrawal and way too much time on my hands in view of Monday’s blank NBA schedule. As a result, I’ve thought long and hard about my top five unappreciated Christmas specials that need to be shown more often every holiday season. They are, in no particular order, The Star Wars Holiday Special, Fat Albert’s Christmas Special, Santa Claus is Comin’ To Town, and The Year Without a Santa Claus, that classic from 1974. However, no list of Christmas specials would be complete without the Riverbottom Nightmare Band in Emmit Otter’s Jug Band Christmas.

Enjoy the holiday season and if you’d like a jump on your competition, read on.

Spotlight: Yi Jianlian

“Sweeeeet Emotion” – Aerosmith.The Bucks play this song every time Yi scores because “Sweet” rhymes with Yi (pronounced Eee). Get it?

How Did We Get Here?

The Guangdong Tigers, Yi’s former team in China, announced in November 2006 that he would be released and made available in the 2007 NBA Draft. Chinese documents listed him as being born in 1987, but trusting Chinese government officials with age documentation is as good of an idea as is trusting Lynne Spears with parenting advice. Why? Because, you know, they admit to doing so. While it’s not quite Danny Almonte territory, it does make it more difficult to accurately gauge Yi’s progress in his rookie season as well as his long-term potential.

Of course, he’s doing pretty well in the celebrity department; Yi already had his own Nike commercial in China before being selected with the sixth pick in the draft by the Milwaukee Bucks.

Where Does He Fit on the Team?

Rumours abound that the Bucks had guaranteed Yi anywhere between 20 and 25 MPG in his rookie season, although not surprisingly no one from the Bucks’ organization would confirm the promise. Also not confirmed – that MTV’s The Hills is fake. But, c’mon.

With minutes comes the impression that the power forward position is his to lose. While perhaps Yi is more suited initially to play small forward, the Bucks already have Desmond Mason and Bobby Simmons. Reducing Charlie Villanueva to a bench role makes their trade to acquire Charlie V. for T.J. Ford look downright appalling (more than it already does; but certainly Ford’s long-term situation and his pondering of retirement will take the sting out of this deal to an extent).

What He Can Do

Arguably the fastest 7-footer in the NBA with agility and athleticism that most big men dream of having, Yi is fundamentally sound and owns a fluid jumper with the ability to make wise decisions with the ball. Yi runs the floor extremely well and boasts explosiveness when finishing around the basket. Most importantly, Yi has been able to earn significant minutes. While logging 27.9 MPG thus far and 36 minutes per game in his last five, there is ample opportunity for him to make an immediate contribution for fantasy basketball owners. Yi should contribute in the categories of points, rebounds, FG% and FT%. Additionally, thanks to his 7′4″ wingspan, his steals and rebounds contributions should continue to rise as he becomes more accustomed to the NBA.

What He Can’t Do

Similar to Kevin Durant, Yi is a scorer who currently lacks the physical strength to play closer to the basket. His offensive repertoire consists of working with the ball on the perimeter. Therefore, he is typically waiting for one of his teammates to drive and dish and the Bucks are not great at sharing the ball. Either his teammates aren’t comfortable trusting him yet or he doesn’t get his number called often by Coach Larry Krystkowiak. Getting the ball on the perimeter can be a daunting task while playing alongside Michael Redd and Mo Williams. Case in point – on Saturday, Yi began by hitting his first 12 shots on his way to 29 points and he still took a back seat to Redd and Williams in shot attempts. His lack of strength may limit his rebounding totals and, in conjunction with his inability to comfortably put the ball on the floor, he could have a difficult time drawing fouls and taking advantage of his 81.7 FT%.

How Do You Like Me Now?

Evidently, Yi’s hard work is paying off. Coming off of a career-high 29 points and his first career double-double, Yi just completed a five-game stretch in which his numbers were eye-popping: 61.8 FG%, 100 FT%, 16.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG and 1.2 SPG. With an injury expected to keep Mason sidelined for six-to-eight weeks, it’s a safe assumption than perhaps more minutes and shot attempts will go to Yi.

Simon Says

If for some reason it’s not too late to grab him in your league, do so immediately as Yi has fantastic long-term keeper value. Athletic 7-footers with precision from the outside don’t come around often, and, the potential is there for Yi to contribute in virtually every category. For this year, if the last three weeks are any indication, Yi will do his best to give Durant a challenge for Rookie of the Year honours. His numbers across the board during that timeframe compare quite favorably with those of Zydrunas Ilgauskas (see below).

Whether he can sustain this pace or will experience the highs and lows virtually every rookie encounters is anyone’s guess, but I would (and have) add him and, at the very least, reap the long-term benefit.

Player his Fantasy Numbers most Currently Resemble

Over the Last Three Weeks, it’s Ilgauskas:

Z: 28.9 MPG, 50 FG% 0.6 SPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.5 BPG, 14.2 PPG
Yi: 31.4 MPG, 53 FG%, 0.7 SPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.8 BPG, 13.0 PPG

Rising

Yi Jianlian, F, Milwaukee Bucks: Haven’t you been reading anything I’ve written?

Sean Williams, C, New Jersey Nets: “Le Freak Elastique” has been freed! Inserted alongside Josh Boone into the Nets’ starting lineup on December 18, the amount of minutes he plays is now in his hands rather than Lawrence Frank’s. Staying out of foul trouble has posed a problem for Williams, but when he’s on the court he will produce. Over the last week, he played 22.7 MPG and tallied 3.7 BPG, which included an eight-block game against Sacramento. After recording their first back-to-back victories since November 23 and 25, the Nets figure to let Williams remain a starter and his production should continue to rise as long as that is the case.

Falling

Corey Brewer, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves: Caution – playing Brewer in your active lineup may cause frustration. Brewer was a hot pickup after cleaning glass to the tune of 18, 11 and nine rebounds in three consecutive games. While it may be tempting to play him given the 32.2 MPG he played last week, he shot only 35 per cent from the floor and scored 7.5 PPG. With Marko Jaric and Rashad McCants nearing a return from flu-like symptoms, Brewer’s minutes should dwindle, as should any hopes of him making an immediate contribution to fantasy owners.

Keep an Eye on

Luis Scola, PF, Houston Rockets: Last week I suggested monitoring the playing time of Al Thornton due to injuries on the Clippers, and he responded with 25 points in 43 minutes against the Spurs on Saturday. Similarly, I’m monitoring the situation in Houston in which Tracy McGrady has been slowed by problems with his knee. More minutes in the frontcourt seem to suit Scola just fine, where in his last two games he is averaging 16 points and 10 boards in 26 MPG while shooting 56 per cent from the floor.

Welcome back to Next Generation, where we take a look at one rookie each week and provide in-depth analysis. We’re also keeping a close eye on which first-year players are worthy of a roster spot on your team, both now and down the road. Forecasting success or failure for NBA rookies is fairly difficult to do, considering playing time is often dictated by coaches that usually can’t bear to play mistake-prone freshmen.

It was an eventful week for rookies. Kevin Durant dropped 30 points in his first game at MSG, Yi Jianlian put together his finest week thus far, and both Juan Carlos Navarro and Al Thornton found themselves additional minutes with which to play.

However, some negative attention was given to the player in this week’s spotlight – Al Horford. Because of his flagrant foul on T.J. Ford, Horford has been treated as poorly this week as L.C.’s fat friend on The Hills that doesn’t even receive the respect of having her name displayed. Far be it from me to extol the character of Horford when the Atlanta Journal Consitution has it covered.

I did want to add, however, that I was watching the game live and at no point did there seem anything remotely malicious about Horford’s foul. Ford slowed down and then cranked it up to another gear and Horford swiped at where he thought the ball was going to be. Given the notable size difference between the two, this happened. In slow motion it looks a lot worse, but the live version clearly shows the intention of a clean play with unfortunate consequences.

SPOTLIGHT: Al Horford
“It’s clobberin’ time!” – The Thing (Benjamin “Ben” Jacob Grimm)

How Did We Get Here?

Widely seen as the second best big man in the 2007 NBA draft behind Greg Oden, Horford was selected third overall by the Atlanta Hawks. Horford and his Florida Gators had recently celebrated back-to-back NCAA titles after defeating Ohio State. In his last collegiate game, Horford scored 18 points and grabbed 12 boards while “limiting” number one draft pick Oden to 25 points.

Where Does He Fit on the Team?

Horford’s Gators consisted of talented teammates that could provide scoring relief at every position on the court. Likewise, the Hawks have several scoring options that will allow the youngster to settle in gradually. Additionally, with no true point guard ready to take hold of a starting role, Horford may have a difficult time seeing the ball at all alongside Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. Horford figured to focus on defending and rebounding — and after the Hawks finished third to last in field goal percentage one season ago, there figured to be plenty of boards to snatch.

What He Can Do

Much like fellow freshman Durant, Horford had an opportunity to start right from the season’s opening tip even after the Hawks recently drafted forwards and swingmen Sheldon Williams, Josh Childress, Marvin Williams and Josh Smith. Horford provides Atlanta with a big body in the middle that would be counted on to slide over to centre and defend the post. Because Horford is blessed with an exceptional basketball IQ and anticipation skills, as well as a chiseled frame and extraordinary strength, I expected him to be able to contribute in the blocked shots, steals and rebounding categories.

What He Can’t Do

In college, Horford was known to defer to teammates on the offensive end. Combine this trait with his limited post moves and somewhat restricted shooting range, and even Isiah Thomas could predict that points would be hard to be come by for him on this team. Furthermore, his aggressive style of play and the potential to spend some time at centre could lead to limited minutes due to foul trouble. Horford’s three seasons in college provided little reason to be optimistic that he would excel in free-throw shooting, shooting it at a 61.4 per cent clip during his collegiate career.

How Do You Like Me Now?

In 31.5 MPG, Horford is scoring 9.0 PPG and snaring 9.9 RPG. Horford’s strengths and weaknesses are exactly the opposite from those of the player I featured last week - Durant. While the brilliance that is Durant’s offensive game is far ahead of his strength and rebounding, Horford’s scoring needs to catch up to his brute strength and ability to clean glass. The opportunity and minutes are there, and that does not figure to change. The blocked shots have been tailing off recently, but his current average of 1.1 BPG is a nice bonus for a rookie.

Currently, double-digit rebounds is the only thing Horford can be depended on for. I don’t expect his offensive repertoire to develop anytime soon. His touches might increase if he had a legitimate point guard running the floor alongside him, but that guy is not currently on the roster.

Player His Fantasy Numbers Most Currently Resemble

Tyson Chandler, in a down year thus far.

Chandler: 33.7 MPG, 64.2 FT%, 11.6 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.2 BPG 11.6 PPG
Horford: 31.5 MPG, 62.9 FT%, 9.9 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.1 BPG, 9.0 PPG

Simon Says

For the short term, the Hawks made a solid selection with Horford. That’s right, the same organization that passed up Chris Paul for Marvin Williams happened to make a fine choice this time around. The expectation, however, should be for Horford to complement the talent with which he is hopefully surrounded. Finding himself surrounded by players that love to shoot, his looks will be hard to come by and that may be a good thing – his shot beyond six feet is just plain ugly. Horford’s footwork in the post also needs a lot of work and his size isn’t necessarily the strength that it was in college.

I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he grabs at least 8.5 RPG for the season and is able to maintain or slightly improve upon his scoring average. Owners of Horford have to hope that the similarity between his current statistical line and that of J.R. Reid’s rookie season is purely coincidental. Reid, you may recall, went on to average a paltry 8.5 PPG and 5.0 RPG over the course of his 11-season career.

Rising

Yi Jianlian, SF, Bucks: I decided to watch Yi’s Bucks play the Cavaliers on Monday, and two things stood out. I noticed that Fred McLeod, the Cavaliers’ play-by-play announcer, almost single-handedly took any enjoyment out of the game. There is nothing worse than listening to a homer trying to replicate the voice of Marv Albert and failing miserably. Perhaps only the Heat’s Eric Reid is as guilty in this department. More importantly, however, I also noticed that Yi has unlimited range and a fantastic looking stroke.

His biggest problem will be finding enough shots, similar to every rookie whose last name is not Durant. His teammates rarely look for Yi or consider running a play designed to get him the ball. It was a good sign, though, that he did not shy away from taking and missing the potential game-winning shot on Monday at the final buzzer. There’s a lot to like about his stats over the last five games – 14.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 58.0 FG% and 100 FT%.

Falling

Jared Dudley, PF, Bobcats: After being named a starter on December 3 and responding with 16 points, 10 rebounds and three steals, Dudley has received inconsistent minutes and, not surprisingly, his production has plummeted. Over the last five contests, Dudley registered only 15.0 MPG, 4.3 PPG and two permanent seats on the bench. The recent acquisition of centre Nazr Mohammed should further limit Dudley’s playing time and allow Emeka Okafor to permanently move back to his natural position of power forward.

Keep an Eye on

Al Thornton, SF, Clippers: When the Clippers’ head coach goes on record as saying that the Clippers’ decision to waive Ruben Patterson was motivated by freeing up minutes for Thornton, I listen. The rookie’s best friend is consistent minutes. This situation bears watching, if only because he has seen a significant boost in minutes, averaging 24 MPG over the last two games.

Juan Carlos Navarro, PG, Grizzlies: He’s baaaaack. Since Pau Gasol was injured one week ago, Navarro has received a significant boost in minutes. In his two games since being re-inserted into the starting lineup, Navarro has averaged 32.5 MPG, 17.5 PPG and hit all 10 of his free throws. His biggest contribution will be three-pointers, having knocked down seven over the same period.

It’s important to note that only one rookie, Brandon Roy, ranked among the top 120 fantasy basketball players last year. While it is extremely rare to be able to count on a freshman for across-the-board contributions, some will be able to help you right now in a few categories. For team owners like myself that play in keeper leagues, you can add or trade for rookies now and, even if they are currently receiving limited minutes or providing inconsistent productivity, you can stash them away until the point in their young careers when they finally realize their potential and produce on a nightly basis.

SPOTLIGHT: Kevin Durant

“With great powers comes great responsibility.” – Ben Parker, Spiderman

How Did we get Here?

Arguably the most offensively gifted and most captivating freshman to bolt for the NBA since Syracuse stud Carmelo Anthony, we last saw Durant’s Texas Longhorns get taken down by the USC Trojans despite his 30-point effort. During the pre-draft workouts, much was written about his inability to bench-press 185 pounds. Durant was selected with the second overall pick behind Greg Oden and found himself as the centrepiece of a rebuilding Supersonics’ squad with an excellent opportunity to make the rare fantasy contribution as a rookie.

Where Does he Fit on the Team?

Neither the team’s style of play nor the position Durant has been playing will benefit him in his rookie year. Unfortunately for Durant, the Sonics find themselves running primarily out of the half-court set rather than operating on the run. Additionally, Durant has been seeing a majority of his time at shooting guard rather than one of the forward positions. Both situations place him further from the basket and, as a result, Durant’s field goal percentage and rebounding have suffered. He neither has the strength nor the handle in traffic at this stage in his career to get closer to the hoop, and often times finds himself settling for contested shots 18 feet or further from the basket.

What we Expected

First and foremost, a starting job and an abundance of minutes. With the departure of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, Durant was expected to find himself in a position in which he was quite familiar – carrying a majority of the scoring load. Standing at 6′10″ with a 7′4″ wingspan, and possessing extraordinary quickness and jumping ability, Durant was also projected to excel in the steals and blocks categories. It was likely that he would also chip in some 3-pointers, as he displayed a deft touch in college by nailing more than two per game and shooting it at a 40 per cent clip. It was a safe bet to project that he would remain a proficient free-throw shooter (81.6 FT% last year).

What we Didn’t Expect

Unfortunately, the current state of the Sonics does not allow for the 19-year-old to settle in gradually. Armed with the pressure of being the go-to-guy at his age, one might expect some bad shots accompanied by an ineffective field goal percentage. Rebounding figured to be a problem in Durant’s rookie year, given his slight build and the amount of time he’d be spending on the perimeter covering most teams’ shooting guards.

How do You Like me Now?

That all depends upon where he was selected in your fantasy draft. If an owner reached for him too early, there’s most likely a degree of disappointment. The 39.3 field goal percentage is brutal, and 4.57 RPG soft. Durant is a catch-and-shoot guy right now. He is moved way too easily, whether he is attempting to box out for a rebound or moving across the lane for a mid-range jumper. He has trouble even posting up smaller guards, slashing to open spaces, and hitting the offensive glass. For me, Durant is simply not a great start right now, given the aforementioned FG% and the 17 attempts per game. His impact on your team’s field goal percentage is akin to the negative influence Shaquille O’Neal’s FT% had on a team in his prime.

If Durant fell to you in later rounds or if you’re building for the future, Kool & The Gang should personally drive to your home and serenade you with “Celebration.” Durant has amazing shooting mechanics, which allows him to pour in 20.33 PPG in his sleep. He has shown the potential, even in his rookie season, to contribute mightily in every single category with the exception of FG%. In fact, he is only 1 of 14 players currently averaging at least one point, rebound, assist, steal and block per game this season.

Player his Fantasy Numbers most Currently Resemble

Ironically, it’s Ray Allen.

Allen: 40.9 FG%, 90.8 FT%, 45 3PT, 4.42 RPG, 3.32 APG, 1.05 SPG, 19.37 PPG
Durant: 39.3 FG%, 84.1 FT%, 28 3PT, 4.57 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.95 SPG, 20.33 PPG

Simon Says

Durant showed great potential to rebound in college, and with added strength, the boards will follow. With some muscle, he’ll have the ability to get closer to the hoop and, inevitably, will dramatically improve the shooting accuracy. What we are seeing is quite simply a player that will, conservatively, be a top-20 player next year. Furthermore, if he keeps taking gradual steps forward this season and takes it into another gear after the All-Star break, I would go so far as to say he has a good chance to be a top-12 player next year at the age of 20.

Rising

Jamario Moon, SF, Raptors: Heading into the season, the Toronto Raptors were comprised of a roster that consisted of perimeter-oriented players, many of which lacked toughness. There were plenty of shooters, but few to rebound or defend. The makeup irked no-nonsense Coach Sam Mitchell to the extent that during their November 10 game he inserted former Meridian Community College Eagle, former Albany Patron, and former Harlem Glotbetrotter Moon into the starting lineup. The 27-year-old rookie has long arms and possesses fantastic athleticism, consistently providing his owners a very solid source of rebounds, steals and blocks on a nightly basis. Other than Durant, I believe that Moon’s experience, minutes and steady contributions in multiple categories strongly indicate that as long as he maintains his hold on the starting job he will be the rookie that is the safest play on a forward basis.

Falling

Sean Williams, C, Nets: Timber! Arguably the most sought after rookie on the waiver wire after posting a November 17th line of 22 points, eight rebounds, two blocks and two steals, owners took some comfort in the belief that they could at the very least count on him to be a reliable source of blocks. Seemed plausible, but with three blocks in his last five games, it may officially be a good time to temper the enthusiasm. In fact, Williams has played himself out of a contributing role from a fantasy perspective, punctuated by a DNP CD on Sunday. Over his last five games, Williams has mustered only 2.5 PPG, 0.8 BPG and 5.0 RPG in 12.8 MPG. Until there is a significant increase in minutes, the Nets’ first-round pick cannot be counted on to consistently contribute. Move on, nothing to see here…

Keep an Eye on

Daequan Cook, G, Heat: Armed with the ability to shoot the mid-range jumper and long-ball with relative ease, the athletic 20-year-old out of Ohio State is getting a rare opportunity from Pat Riley, who enjoys playing rookies about as much as Paris Hilton enjoys her privacy and wearing panties. Seemingly out of nowhere, Cook has earned a steady 22.2 MPG over the last five. One thing we know about Cook is that he is a pure scorer. Playing alongside big-man Oden a year ago, Cook was able to nail 1.4 treys per game. Similarly, he may be able to find himself with wide open looks provided Shaquille O’Neal still commands the respect of two defenders. Cook also excels in the transition game, and if he can get to the line he may be able to contribute in the FT% category, having missed only once thus far in 24 attempts.