Back in 2004, Football Outsiders first talked about the “Curse of 370.” Basically, running backs who carry the ball 370 or more times in a season fail in the following season. In fact, 21 runners have hit that mark, and 16 had significant decreases in each major fantasy stat. Nine had major injuries. We’ve talked about it before on this site in regards to Larry Johnson.

Well, after a respite last season, it looks like a couple coaches are ready to toss their prime time backs to the monster that is the unrelenting curse of 370. Dynasty leaguers might want to seriously consider trading these two.

Clinton Portis - Up until last week, Portis was on pace for 374 carries. While that number is down somewhat now, I expect it to rise as the Redskins play close NFC East games down the stretch. Considering Portis already has a lot of miles in the NFL, this is an extremely troubling development. Obviously, his value is extremely high right now. Dynasty owners might be able to get a good young wide out (Calvin Johnson or Roddy White) or a quality quarterback.

Michael Turner - Turner is only on pace for 352 carries or so, but if last week’s 31 carries is any indication, the Falcons are content to ruin his career in his first year as a starter. Over the last four games, Turner has averaged more than 24.5 carries per game, which is an absurd 16-game pace of 396 carries. I guess they still have time to work Jerious Norwood into the games, but Norwood got a lot of touches last week and they still ran Turner too much. Anything over 25 in a game is flat out irresponsible coaching. All that said, he’s got plenty of value right now and dynasty owners might be better off cashing him out sooner rather than later.

Okay, if your league-mates don’t know the terrible history of NFL backs with more than 370 carries in a season, it might be prudent to wait until the offseason. Otherwise, it’s really not so absurd.

Sneaky Starts

Tyler Thigpen, Kansas City Chiefs (@ Chargers) - Quick, how many touchdowns (throwing, rushing, or, umm, receiving) does Thigpen have over the last three weeks? Well, if you said “the same number as Peyton Manning and Drew Brees,” then you’d be right. If you said “six,” you’d also be right, but not quite as cool. Anyway, it helps that he has the uber-talented Dwayne Bowe to toss the ball to. It also helps that the Chargers are just about the worst team in the league at stopping the pass. But I didn’t just put Thigpen here because of the Charger matchup! He’s been a fantasy beast lately! Okay, maybe not a beast. But he’s been adequate! Fantasy adequate! I promise, that is actually a compliment.

Ryan Torain, Denver Broncos (@ Browns) - Three carries for one yard. Okay, Torain didn’t exactly come out of the gates blazing. That’s okay. Every other running back on the Bronco roster is hurt. So basically, even if Torain had 20 carries for no yards, he’d still be in line to get a major dose of touches against Cleveland. At this point, I should give you my disclaimer, which is that this is the Broncos. They are coached by a guy who lives to screw my fantasy advice up. I think he reads my column and then does the opposite. Maybe it has to do with the curse of 370, which he relegated Terrell Davis to fall to. And Davis will never make the Hall of Fame because of it. Way to go!

Matt Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Lions) - Not suspended yet? Okay, good. Just a reminder.

Surprising Sit

No one! It’s Week 10, people. There’s no more getting cute. This is fantasy crunch time. Your players should either be returning from byes or returning from injuries. In the mean time, sit back and relax. This is when it gets really easy. Just start your best players and hope for the best. I’ve been in situations where I try to make “fancy” starts, and it usually ends poorly during this crunch time.

Good luck in Week 10!

November 6th, 2008
Categories: Andy Goldstein, FOOTBALL, Prepare Thyself . Author: Andy Goldstein . Comments: 2 Comments

Okay, it’s the halfway point of the season, so I am definitely taking a break from the standard Prepare Thyself. Instead, I offer you the three biggest in-season fantasy football myths. Usually we talk about draft myths or off-season myths. So, really, this is a totally interesting and enlightening piece of work. In fact, it’s not even work. It’s art. If I knew HTML beyond the basics, I’d put a nifty frame around this whole shebang. Ahem.

Myth No. 1

I’m 0-8, 1-7, or 2-6 so my season is over. - This is really the biggest travesty in fantasy football. Yes, every year, some teams struggle. They get behind because of poor play, injuries, or just plain ol’ bad luck. But instead of puling out all the stops, some owners throw in the towel. My best argument against this comes with a story. Stop rolling your eyes, faithful readers! My stories are entertaining and pertinent!

Anyway, back in 2005, I drafted a shoddy team in my expert league. I had pretty good quarterback depth, with Kurt Warner serving as my backup. Other than that, I had nothing. Come Week Five, I was 1-4. I decided to go for a complete overhaul. I traded away Brett Favre for Larry Fitzgerald because the Fitz owner had great wide out depth, but no quarterback to speak of. I picked up some guy named Samkon Gado from waivers because there was a wisp of a hope he could start for the Packers.

I lost the following week because Fitz was on bye and I didn’t even have enough wide receivers to start anyone. But after that, things started to turn around. I finished the year on a 5-2 run to wind up at 6-7 and just a game out of a playoff spot. I’ve won fantasy titles. I’ve set scoring records. But that was my proudest moment as a fantasy owner. And, as karma would have it, I went ahead and dominated the league the following season behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Frank Gore.

But, the moral of the story: Never give up! Even if your only role is to be a spoiler, well, go for the gusto! Make some risky moves. I command it.

Myth No. 2

Only do a trade if it clearly benefits me and doesn’t help anyone else. - There’s absolutely nothing wrong with trying to get the best possible trade to help your squad. If it ain’t collusion and you pull it off, more power to you. If, however, you play in a league with competent opponents, that opportunity may not present itself all the time. Instead, you might have to (gasp!) part with value to get better value.

For example, let’s say you have Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, but you need to upgrade your running back slot. Trading Rodgers for, say, Thomas Jones or Maurice Jones-Drew might seem weak. But depending on your need, it might be worth it. At the end of the day, you want to put out the best team possible, regardless of what it does for your opponents, (The only time this may not be entirely true is if your have the best team in the league and then it might make sense to take more care to not let others catch up to you).

Myth No. 3

The best team wins the title - Frankly, I’ve found that the best team often doesn’t win the title. In fact, I would say at least half of the time, a weaker team goes on a nice run and gets some lucky post-season wins. Hey, it happens. If you put your team into the playoffs, that’s the best you can do. Anything after that is gravy.

So good luck this week and remember to not be taken in by the holy trinity of fantasy football myths.

November 1st, 2008
Categories: Andy Goldstein, FOOTBALL, Prepare Thyself . Author: Andy Goldstein . Comments: 1 Comment

ESPN sucks. There…I said it. Watching SportsCenter is mostly an exercise in frustration as on-air personalities ramble on as if they all have been sent a list of approved talking points. They all say the same, regurgitated things. I know what they will say before they say it. I don’t think anyone beyond the Pardon the Interruption duo of Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon have an iota of contrarian thought-processes in their brains. ESPN.com is slightly better, just because there are more voices. Some actually bring something to the table like Bill Simmons and Henry Abbott.

Basically, I follow the World Wide Leader enough to feel as though I can offer some commentary on what happened this past week (we’ll get to it), but I also obviously have some bias in that I think the conglomerate is utter poop. So take that as you will.

On FOX’s Sunday pre-game show, football insider Jay Glazer (not employed by ESPN) dropped a moderate bombshell about Brett Favre. According to Glazer, Favre had been involved in a lengthy phone conversation with then Lion CEO Matt Millen and some of the Lion coaching staff. At least some of the conversation involved insight into stopping the Packer offense.

I’ll get into interpreting that information in a bit, but the most fascinating aspect of the story is how ESPN handled it. Actually, it didn’t handle it. It avoided the story like an elephant avoids a mouse. ESPN ran scared. An internal memo was sent that the story was not to be reported on. ESPN claimed it couldn’t verify the report. I have no problem with it not being able to verify the report. But why not report that? The story had been put out there by Glazer and FOX. ESPN should have reported on the story and added that it could not confirm it. But it didn’t. ESPN ignored the story until Wednesday.

On Wednesday, Favre was asked about the reports and mostly affirmed what Glazer reported. He admitted to talking with Millen and the coaches about the Packer offense and what his teams had done in the past against the Lions. He offered an excuse that players help their current teams all the time when facing their former teams. He denied having a current Packer game plan and denied that he actually helped the Lions in a meaningful way.

ESPN only reported the latter part there, a full four days after the story initially broke. It completely overlooked the part where Favre talked to the Lions about the Packer offense. In essence, if ESPN isn’t lying to its readers (by omission, at the very least), it is coming dangerously close.

Whether or not you think Favre’s actions were being overblown, the most fascinating aspect to the entire saga is how ESPN completely missed the mark in its reporting. It ignored the festering story much too long and then mysteriously reported on just half of the events on Wednesday. Why ESPN did this is beyond me. It could be incompetence, a disdain for Glazer, a protection of Favre, or something else altogether. If nothing else, it makes me question every other report coming from the WWL.

Sneaky Starts

Trent Edwards - Buffalo Bills (@ Dolphins) – I might have talked about Edwards before, but he has been a nice little backup for fantasy owners this season. Okay, he doesn’t have a multi-touchdown game just yet, but he has tossed exactly one in five of the six contests he has played in. The only game he didn’t get one was when he left early with a concussion. Miami has a pass defense located in the bottom half of the league. I guess I can’t be so bold as to predict Edwards’ first multi-touchdown game, but he will definitely provide a stable presence at the top of your fantasy lineup if you lost your starter to bye or injury.

Deuce McAllister - New Orleans Saints (vs. Chargers) – I guess some Saint fans are bummed about Reggie Bush’s injury. The team certainly loses a spark plug on special teams and catching passes out of the backfield. But on the plus side, New Orleans actually has a chance to run the ball effectively now! Woo! McAllister’s lifetime per carry average is 0.7 yards better than Bush’s. That might not seem like a lot, but over the course of a season, it does add up. San Diego has been allowing plenty of yards on the ground this season, and that shouldn’t change here. Expect McAllister to be a nice second back with some upside.

Antonio Bryant - Tampa Bay Bucs (@ Cowboys) – Bryant had a heck of a game last week, so it’s probably not quite a “sneaky” start anymore. But don’t anticipate Bryant to just be a fluke. He has pretty much supplanted Joey Galloway in the offense and now he gets to take revenge against one of the teams that didn’t believe in him. Also, have you noticed the Cowboys have absolutely no secondary left? There’s no reason Bryant can’t be a borderline top wide out this week.

Surprising Sit

LenDale White - Tennessee Titans (vs. Colts) – After last week’s incredible rushing display, just about everyone who has White on their roster will be amped up to start him against the porous Colt rush defense. Umm, not so fast, compadres. Did you all watch White’s improbable 80-yard touchdown scamper? Actually, it wasn’t a scamper. It was more of a slow roll down the field. You can’t expect anything like that to happen again. Ever. Sure, he’s always a candidate for a cheap score, but prior to last week, White was averaging an abysmal 2.6 yards per carry. Chris Johnson is averaging over 5.0 per carry. One is good. The other is not. You do the math.

October 24th, 2008
Categories: Andy Goldstein, FOOTBALL, Prepare Thyself . Author: Andy Goldstein . Comments: No Comments

Every season, there’s a week when things start clicking together. A few early slumpers break out. Some early surprises just get better while others start to fade. This season, that happened last week. Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards? They’ll be just fine, thank you. Roddy White and Aaron Rodgers? Current and future studs. Jay Cutler and Michael Turner? Don’t start carving the fantasy MVP trophy just yet.

Basically, the fantasy season has three parts. The opening act is chaos and uncertainty. You ride the hot hands and hope to avoid catastrophe. That just ended and now we’re smack dab in the middle of Act II: The Byes. In fiction, the middle act is when the protagonist often has very little hope. Luke is drifting on an Ice Planet. Sméagol is a dangerous presence. Harry is accused of murdering Cedric. You don’t get to start your proper lineup for five or six weeks. I usually fast forward through the bad parts of movies, but there’s little recourse in fantasy football. All you can do is find the sneaky starts and avoid the surprising sits. Luckily, I’m here to help you do exactly that.

Sneaky Starts

Brad Johnson, Dallas Cowboys (@ Rams): Alright. This one is easy. No Tony Romo + the addition of Roy Williams + Rams = start Johnson.

Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers (vs. Colts): – I don’t really know why Grant has struggled so much this season. Sure, part of it is defenses maybe not respecting Rodgers and the passing game and part of it is offensive line play that has not up to last season’s standards. But if those were the only issues, Grant would have done better the last couple weeks. I have to believe something else (like an injury) is holding him back. Still, the Colts rank near the bottom of the league in rush defense and Grant will get 20 to 25 carries. That’s enough reason to be cautiously optimistic this week.

Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings (@ Bears): – Okay, Berrian has two straight games of 100+ yards and a score, so I don’t know if he exactly qualifies as a “sneaky” start, but going against the Bear defense will worry many fantasy owners. Don’t sweat it, Bra! As the Bears displayed last week, when it comes to an offense with a quality back, they’ll completely sell out to stop the run. So while Adrian Peterson is facing 11 in the box (approximation), Berrian will be free to run. And catch.

Surprising Sits

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (vs. Vikings): – Once again, Forte failed to hit four yards per carry last week. He is averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per attempt on the season. Forte has feasted on bad defense and he contributes in the passing game, which is nice. But the Vikings rank fourth overall in rush defense. Because he’s a clear cut starter, there’s also a chance at a cheap goal line score, but don’t expect much in the way of yardage at all.

Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints (@ Panthers): Since the week after Marques Colston was felled by his thumb injury, Moore has averaged 77 yards per game. It’s been an impressive streak considering three other guys were at one point or another supposed to be “the guy.” Unfortunately, Colston is all but assured of returning to the lineup Sunday, which makes Moore’s days as a consistent force numbered. Sure, he’ll have his occasional good game, but as long as Colston is happy, Moore is nothing more than a fantasy backup. Pun intended.

October 17th, 2008
Categories: Andy Goldstein, FOOTBALL, Prepare Thyself . Author: Andy Goldstein . Comments: No Comments

Sneaky Starts

Thomas Jones, New York Jets (vs. Bengals) - I haven’t exactly been Jones’ biggest supporter over the years. I’ve always considered him to be a rather low-ceiling runner. But when boring backs like Jones get the Bengals on the schedule, it could end up being a big day. Cincy ranks next to last in rushing yards allowed and is not much better in rushing touchdowns allowed. Jones will get his 20 carries and is worth a start over ailing players (LaDainian Tomlinson, anyone?) or underperforming ones (Ryan Grant, anyone?).

Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Cowboys) - Maybe it’s the week for old, boring running backs. James takes on a Dallas defense that will surely be distracted by the potent Cardinal passing game. James has three scores over the last two weeks and he should get at least another this week. Okay, his yardage numbers are pitiful and there’s no reason to expect a sudden jump to more than four yards per carry, but Kurt Warner will propel the offensive unit inside the red zone, which is where James gains his value.

Correll Buckhalter, Philadelphia Eagles (@ 49ers) - With Brian Westbrook suffering two consecutive injuries, it’s time, once again, to roll the dice with Buckhalter. With Westbrook ailing in Weeks Three and Four, Buckhalter totaled more than 170 total yards and two scores. Also, Donovan McNabb will probably put the Eagles on his back, which means whoever the running back is, they probably won’t see 20 carries. Still, a touchdown or two is definitely possible.

Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders (@ Saints) - With Darren McFadden dinged up, it looks like Fargas will be given the lion’s share of carries for the Raiders. The Saints aren’t really good at stopping anything defensively, so they probably welcome backs to run for “only” 4.5 per carry against them. Since a veritable plethora of backs are on bye this weekend, Fargas makes for a nice second, but preferably flex, fill in.

Surprising Sits

LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers (vs. Patriots) - It truly saddens me to have Tomlinson in this section. Unfortunately, the injury has almost completely neutered his fantasy value. I do think he will come around after the Charger bye week, but that’s down the road. For now, it’s okay to bench Tomlinson if you have a legitimate back-up option.

Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Bears) - Alright, I know you’ll all probably start White, but there’s reason to be worried about this one. The Bears have been very good against passing TDs, ranking seventh overall. They do give up yardage, but that’s mainly because they’ve been ahead a lot and have the most pass attempts against in the league. White has been remarkaby good, but has faltered slightly against the better defenses. So, go ahead and start him (I guess), but don’t expect a huge game.

Good luck in Week Six.

October 11th, 2008
Categories: Andy Goldstein, FOOTBALL, Prepare Thyself . Author: Andy Goldstein . Comments: No Comments