Last week, we identified a young American League outfielder we expect to have serious sleeper potential in 2010 – Nolan Reimold. Today, we’ll look at an even younger flyhawk over in the National League who is poised for a major breakout – Jay Bruce.

This former top prospect got off to a fine start this season, but as he was prone to long slumps, things went progressively downhill from there until a broken wrist in July wound up costing Bruce a large chunk of the season. Despite being limited to around two-thirds worth of a season of at bats and suffering through an awful batting average, there were plenty of reasons to get excited about what Bruce might be capable of doing in 2010.

For starters, he made nice progress in the power department; in fact, he could have potentially made a run at 40 dingers had he not gotten hurt.

Secondly, Bruce’s strikeout rate – a major concern for much of his brief time as a big leaguer – was significantly better. Also, the left-handed hitter upped his numbers against southpaws, although Bruce still has plenty of room for improvement in this department.

Finally, he came back after his injury and hit .353 with a .765 slugging percentage in September, albeit in a very small sample size. But still, it was a great sign that Bruce showed no rust upon his return.

So while it’s easy to look at his poor BA in 2009 and be disappointed, Bruce was definitely making progress – development I expect him to intensify in 2010.

He’ll need to step up his play on the road (635 OPS vs. 914 at home), and I’d definitely like to see Bruce do a better job of producing with runners in scoring position and two outs, but he’s displayed enough flashes of excellence that we can remain optimistic despite these issues.

He’s obviously established himself as a core member of a rebuilding Reds team, and Bruce’s injury in 2009 left this team with precious little pop in the outfield http://www.rotorob.com/2009/07/12/the-wire-troll-the-return-of-mr-mota/, but assuming he can stay healthy, this kid (who won’t be 23 until a couple of days before Opening Day) is ready to become a legitimate Fantasy force. Hitting in the middle of the Cincy order, he’s probably a 10th round talent, but as the hype machine grows, as it’s sure to do with Bruce likely making plenty of sleeper lists, you can expect him to go much earlier than that in most drafts.

In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if Bruce is top 50 player by the end of 2010.

When we last checked in on Oriole rookie outfielder Nolan Reimold, he had the dubious distinction of being our Daily Dump — not exactly the kind of recognition one tends to seek.

That pan proved astute, as once Reimold slowed down at the end of June, he went into a tailspin for July (746 OPS) and August (719) before getting hot in September (1006) just before having to endure season-ending surgery to repair his frayed Achilles’ tendon.

But there are several reasons why we’re touting this 26-year-old as a serious sleeper for 2010. I mean, despite Reimold’s struggles through the summer, he wound up beating out more entrenched and more hyped Fantasy assets like Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones for the Oriole OPS crown. Pretty darned impressive for a rookie.

And then there’s the fact that this right-handed hitter wound up recording a higher OPS (840) against righties than he did against lefties (815). This is one youngster who you don’t need to worry about being platooned by his team.

Reimold is one of the first of the current Oriole wave of home-grown talents to arrive in the Show, and he’ll soon be followed by several others – especially on the pitching front – as the B-More organization looks to turn things around.

Yes, there’s talk that Reimold could be shifted to first base to fill the team’s vacancy there while also helping to clear the outfield logjam, but even if that happens, he’ll still qualify at OF for 2010, and a little multi-positional eligibility never hurt anyone. Besides, playing first will likely help Reimold stay healthy.

A far more likely scenario will see the Orioles deal away Felix Pie to create more PT for the rest of their flyhawks, but however this plays out, it’s clear Reimold will get his at bats. Now before you let him slip too far in the draft, just imagine what he’s capable of doing in his first full big league season.

We’re back with more of the 2009-10 RotoRob NBA Draft Kit as we delve into the world of sleepers. In this information driven society we live in, are there really any sleepers in Fantasy sports anymore? Back in the day, you had a serious advantage in a draft if you simply did your homework and looked for breakout potential. Nowadays, everyone has that information, by one simple click of the mouse.

What I hope to accomplish here is to just identify some of the guys that could really help your team. I’m talkin’ bout guys that other people may sleep on — whether it is guys who have been injured and are ready to regain their status as league elite, or that former 12th man who will finally get a chance to contribute. My goal for this list is to give you some talent to chew on and hopefully it will allow you to catch your fellow Fantasy mates off guard.

Here are my top 10 guys that will make your buddies envious come December. These are in reverse order of sleepiness, just to build the tension:

10. Brandon Rush, SG, Indiana Pacers: The fact that Rush sits behind Dahntay Jones on the depth chart does not bother me at all. Rush had a decent rookie year and will definitely see more court time this year. D. Jones is an energy guy who does not score with ease, so his impact on the team will be limited. I see Rush being inserted in the game to heat it up from beyond the arc. Also, he will get his fair share of steals and will occasionally get some blocks. I like Rush in his sophomore year to start to contribute on a more consistent basis. I would look to pick him up in the last round or two in a standard 12-team league.

9. Hakim Warrick, PF, Milwaukee Bucks: Warrick falls into the category of guys who will compile stats just because he is on the floor so much. Seriously, the frontcourt in Milwaukee is pretty dreadful. Warrick will be competing with Kurt Thomas, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Joe Alexander, Walter Sharpe, Francisco Elson, etc. Sure, there is some experience and talent among those names, but Warrick should have no problem averaging 30 minutes a game. He averaged nearly 12 points, 5 rebounds, 0.5 blocks, and 0.5 steals a game in less than 25 minutes last season, so given a few extra minutes, it stands to reason those numbers will go up accordingly. If Warrick seizes the opportunity, he could step his game up and become a solid Fantasy player.

8. Drew Gooden, C, Dallas Mavericks: I really like the addition of Gooden to the Dallas Mavericks. I expect him to play around 28-to-30 minutes per game while starting at centre. He will play over incumbent Erick Dampier and will eat up minutes formerly consumed by the now exiled Brandon Bass. If Gooden proves his worth early, he could prevent coach Rick Carlisle from running with a small lineup that would include Dirk Nowitzki at centre and Gooden on the bench. I think you can safely pencil in Gooden for 12 points and 8 rebounds a game. He also shoots free throws quite well (84 per cent last year), which is a definite plus from the centre position.

7. Spencer Hawes, C, Sacramento Kings: The third-year centre out of Washington is an intriguing Fantasy player for the upcoming season. At 7’0”, 245 pounds, he is pretty soft and doesn’t get as many rebounds as he should, but he has other dimensions to his game that can help your squad. Last year he averaged 11.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, and 0.5 3-pointers per game. That’s right, a fluffy seven footer hit 40 three pointers last year.  He averaged just under 30 minutes per game last year, and that is sure to rise as he is entering the season as the starter. Hawes competed for playing time much of last year with fellow white guy Brad Miller. Don’t overlook Hawes when it comes to filling in your roster, especially if your team is built to make up his deficiencies on the board. Just please do me a favour and don’t accidentally draft Spencer Pratt.

6. Robin Lopez, C, Phoenix Suns: The exodus of the great Shaq-tus has left a giant void in the desert. The Suns brought in Channing Frye, whom coach Alvin Gentry said is the favourite to start the season on top of the depth charts. This comment does not scare me away from Lopez, who will become a rebound and block machine if he gets court time. He is an offensively challenged player at this point, but he has the size to contribute on the court. I would not mind taking a flier on this big guy, as it could pay dividends if Lopez steps up his game and takes advantage of the opportunity to play.

5. Courtney Lee, SG, New Jersey Nets: See, I am not sure how to classify Lee. I think either people will overvalue him because he was traded (or at least was the key component in the deal) for Vince Carter, or just totally sleep on the fact that he was traded for Vince Carter. I am including him on this sleeper list because I think his average draft position in most leagues will be way too low. Lee is a great defender who I project to finish in the top 10 in steals and finish with over a three pointer made per game. He will score plenty of points and be a great complimentary guard to Devin Harris. I love that backcourt and I think that they will put up some giant numbers this season. Be on C-Lee Watch and if you see reasonable spot to snag him, don’t let the opportunity pass.

4. Jason Thompson, PF, Sacramento Kings: First off, I like Thompson as a Fantasy player more than his teammate Hawes, who is featured on this list as well. Thompson is a second year guy who averaged 11 points, 7.5 rebounds, and nearly 0.75 blocks per game in 28 minutes a contest. This season, he will most likely play around 32-to-35 minutes a game and will see his numbers move upwards. I like Thompson to be a double-double machine this year and hopefully get his blocks per game up to around one. A big problem last year was that the Kings had Thompson guarding small forwards often, which probably fatigued him as he was always running around chasing wings.

3. Louis Williams, PG, Philadelphia 76ers: After playing second fiddle to Andre Miller for a few years, Sweet Lou Williams is ready to assume the role of starting point guard in Sixerland. His stats last season (13 points, 3 assists, 2 rebounds and 1 steal a game) were not very impressive, but you have to realize that he only played 23 minutes a game. Coach Eddie Jordan already came out and said Williams can expect 38 minutes a game. The biggest concern with Williams is his poor shooting percentage, so hopefully that is something he has been working on. If things go according to plan, I could see him averaging 20 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game, which would make him an awesome Fantasy steal. I also expect him to average at least a three pointer made per game, which would make Williams quite the stat stuffer. If you plan on taking him, I would hedge my approach by loading up on big men with high field goal percentages to help offset some potential growing pains.

2. Antonio McDyess, PF, San Antonio Spurs: Laugh now, but once McDyess is averaging a double-double a month or two in the season, you will only feel regret in not snagging this aging vet. McDyess averaged 12 points, 11 rebounds and 1.6 blocks a game in the second half last season with the Pistons. He was signed by the Spurs to be their starting power forward and team up with future HOFer Tim Duncan. The Spurs drafted DeJuan Blair and signed Theo Ratliff, but McDyess was the one brought in to eat up the minutes left by the departure of Fabricio Oberto, Thomas and Gooden. If McDyess holds up health wise, you could have yourself a solid Fantasy contributor, especially in rebounds and blocks.

1. Gilbert Arenas, PG, Washington Wizards: Yes, two years ago he was considered a top 10, even top five player, and now he is on a sleeper list? How is this possible? Well, people are sleeping on Agent Zero’s ability to regain his crown as the prince of Washington D.C. He is not doing a ton of talking, he stopped blogging, and he is back to his gym-rat self. The biggest change in this offseason compared to the past is that he teamed up with legendary trainer Tim Grover to totally rebuild the strength in his injured knee. Arenas is supposedly back to form and as explosive as ever. He’s a sleeper because many people will not touch him in the first two rounds. I am declaring him a top 15 Fantasy player this season. He is somewhat a risky second round pick, but I think he could perform like a first rounder this season. Don’t sleep on the drive Arenas has and the work he puts in to constantly make his game better. In 2006-07, his last full year, he averaged 28 points, 6 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2.5 three pointers a game, all while maintaining a great free throw percentage and respectable field goal percentage. These are the numbers I expect from Arenas this season, and his draft position will not correspond to those numbers. I, for one, won’t be sleeping on Gilbert.

We’re back with more of the 2009-10 RotoRob NHL Draft Kit. While Hawk fans cringe over an injury to super soph Kris Versteeg, why not check out our sleeper picks?

What constitutes a sleeper pick? It really depends on what you need. Maybe you just need a goalie who will get regular starts or maybe you’re looking for a 35-point defenseman to round out your roster. This list is an amalgamation of risk/reward: guys returning from injury, looking to take the next step forward, or maybe just poised to rebound from a bad year.

1. Derick Brassard, C, Columbus Blue Jackets: Brassard had just 25 points last year as a rookie. Of course, that was in just 31 games, so there’s hope that this former first rounder will keep pace as he looks to complete his first NHL campaign. Brassard will centre Rick Nash, meaning that he’s got every opportunity to succeed. Nash is a lock for 35-45 goals, and if the chemistry returns between Nash and Brassard, Nash could top 50 goals and Brassard could hit 70+ points.

2. Marc-Edouard Vlasic, D, San Jose Sharks: Dan Boyle is still the key defenseman on the Sharks, and Rob Blake is their other power play specialist. However, Vlasic’s role has increased with each season, and now it looks like San Jose will be giving him a greater power play role with Christian Ehrhoff shipped off to Vancouver. One key factor to look at: Vlasic’s shots on goal have increased with each season, from 66 to 72 to 104. His increased willingness to shoot the puck (no doubt influenced by Blake) shows an increasing offensive aggressiveness in his game.

3. Justin Williams, RW, Los Angeles Kings: When he’s been healthy, Williams has potential for 70+ points. In the only two full NHL seasons he’s played (for Carolina in ‘05-06 and ‘06-07), Williams put up 76 points and 67 points, respectively, both times eclipsing 30 goals. Since then, it’s been a pretty ugly stretch of seasons with less than 45 games. He didn’t do particularly well in his first dozen games in Los Angeles, but there is plenty of opportunity for Williams to play with some talented forwards in Anze Kopitar and Alexander Frolov. If Williams is healthy, he could be a major part of the Kings finally taking a big step forward.

4. T.J. Oshie, C, St. Louis Blues: Oshie gave Blue fans a tantalizing glimpse of the future last season with 39 points in just 57 games as a rookie. What was even more impressive was that coach Andy Murray felt comfortable enough putting the first-year NHLer on the penalty kill, where he wound up with four short-handed points. Oshie is looking to have a stellar second year, and while he’ll most certainly hit some bumps in the road, 60 points seems like a safe starting point.

5. Kyle Okposo, RW, New York Islanders: Assuming he doesn’t have trouble recovering from his Dion Phaneuf-induced concussion, Okposo should be able to build on a successful rookie campaign (18 goals, 21 assists in 65 games). In fact, he’ll have to in order for the Islanders to have any real success. The team’s fortunes are now in the hands of its young players (and Rick DiPietro’s hip). At the end of last season, Okposo was getting around 19 minutes of ice time every night, so you know that his coaches have faith in him. It’s really up to him to make the most of that ice time.

6. Zach Bogosian, D, Atlanta Thrashers: Defensemen tend to take longer to break in than forwards. For Bogosian, it took him a dozen games before he registered his first NHL point. After that, he put up 17 points in 35 games, including nine goals and a +11 on a disappointing Thrasher squad. Bogosian will be looking to take a big step forward with 40-point potential, but beware of the sophomore slump, especially for blueliners. There is a reason why Atlanta picked Bogosian third overall, but the reality is that most defensemen don’t really arrive until their fourth or fifth season.

7. Maxim Afinogenov, RW, Atlanta Thrashers: Injuries slowed down Afinogenov from his high-flying Sabre days, but the speedy Russian claims to be healthy and up for the challenge in Atlanta. As it stands, he won’t be playing on a line with Ilya Kovalchuk outside of the power play; his centre will be former Sabre teammate Slava Kozlov. Still, Afinogenov’s upside is huge — he’s only two seasons removed from a point-per-game year, though injuries remain a concern. Just hitting 30 years old, he has a few good years left in him if his head and heart are on it — as long as his body holds up.

8. Marco Sturm, LW, Boston Bruins: Who will make up for Phil Kessel’s 36 goals in Boston? GM Peter Chiarelli noted that Sturm — an effective two-way forward capable of 25+ goals — missed the bulk of last season. He’s healthy and motivated, and with the Bruins back in prominence after years of disarray, the entire team will be trending upwards. Sturm will alternate between first and second line duties, but he’ll also get time on both special teams.

9. Petr Sykora, RW, Minnesota Wild: This is the New NHL, where 25 goals doesn’t get you what it used to. Sykora can still score, and the Minnesota Wild need scoring, so it seems like a logical fit. New coach Todd Richards will give Sykora every chance to succeed, and while Sykora isn’t exactly the fleetest of foot, he obviously knows how to bulge the twine. He won’t put up a ton of assists, but given the right opportunity, another 25 goals seems totally feasible.

10. Chris Higgins, LW, New York Rangers: Higgins has played more than 60 games in three of his NHL seasons; in each of those years, he eclipsed the 20-goal mark. Now he’s a New York Ranger, a team desperately in need of an offensive spark. Coach John Tortorella loves his up-tempo style of hockey, so Higgins will be allowed to think offense first. Twenty goals seems par for the course, but given the right situation, 30 goals seems possible.

Now that we’re done all the team previews, the 2009 RotoRob NFL Draft Kit will switch gears and get into the meat of the kit. Today, Buck provides his sleeper picks for the upcoming season.

Quarterbacks

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: Before an arm injury limited him to just four games last season, Palmer had tossed at least 26 touchdown passes in four straight seasons. His wing looks fine, but a minor high ankle sprain might slow him down a bit in the preseason. Nonetheless, Palmer could be primed for a fine comeback in 2009. Although top target T.J. Houshmandzadeh is no longer in town, former Jets’ regular Laveranues Coles is a dependable receiver who can make the tough catch in traffic, while former police blotter regular Chris Henry looks as if he has cleaned up his act and could become a solid red-zone target again. Chad Ochocinco is still around, and hopefully he’ll contribute more than the patetico 540 yards and four touchdowns he managed in ’08. At this point, Palmer makes a great “1/1a” quarterback in a “play the matchups” kind of Fantasy strategy, but if things fall into place he could become your every-week starter by season’s end.

Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills: Edwards started the 2008 season like a house afire…and ended up just like that burning house: a smoking pile of embers. Through the first half of the season, though, Edwards averaged 216 yards passing per game, with a completion percentage of 68…but he only managed six touchdown tosses. The lack of a reliable red zone target undoubtedly contributed to Edwards’ second-half collapse – but that has all changed now that Terrell Owens is in town. T.O. should team with incumbent wideout Lee Evans (63-1,017-3 last year) to give Buffalo one of the league’s better receiving tandems, and Evans should benefit from the double teams his eminent teammate will undoubtedly draw. Don’t count on Edwards as your Fantasy starter just yet, but he’s a great backup – with the upside to post starter’s numbers this season.

Running Backs

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens: The Raven backfield situation is a bit murky, but with injury-risk Willis McGahee looking to be on the downside of his career, the time may be now for Rice to become a Fantasy staple. The second-year back had a rather bland rookie season, but he did display good receiving skills out of the backfield. Rice has been taking a lot of snaps with the first team in practice, so he figures to see plenty of touches in the early going. A caveat with Rice – and for that matter McGahee – is that fullback LeRon McClain has shown that he is a very capable fill-in tailback, rushing for 902 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. While Rice may lose some goal-line opportunities to the 260-pound McClain, he should garner enough touches to be Fantasy-relevant from the get-go – especially in PPR leagues – and he could be a solid starter if McGahee again goes down with an injury.

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals: At the beginning of last season, Benson looked to be on his way out of professional football – another casualty of the woeful 2005 NFL Draft class, which had more busts than…on second thought, let’s just leave that one on the table, okay? Not so fast, though. When the Bengals’ need was dire, Benson stepped in and looked a bit like his old self – his old University of Texas self, that is – averaging 76 rushing yards per game over the second half of the season. This year, he looks like a man on a mission; he’s in shape and going full-bore at practice. He doesn’t face much competition for reps in the Bengal backfield, so Benson could be a major Fantasy contributor early in the season. His line is suspect, and his quarterback is recovering from a serious arm injury, but Benson has the opportunity to put up some nice numbers in 2009 – especially when the match up is right. Draft him as a flex or No. 3 running back for now, but don’t be surprised if Benson finds his way into your Fantasy lineup sooner rather than later.

Wide Receivers

Ronald Curry, St. Louis Rams: The Rams will be without No. 1 wideout (and ubiquitous Fantasy sleeper) Donnie Avery for the first two regular season games after he suffered a stress fracture in his left foot during a scrimmage. Enter Curry – who is by far the most experienced and accomplished of the remaining Ram wideouts. You’ve heard of the “Who’s Who” list; the Rams’ corps of wideouts is more of a “Who?” list. Curry posted a decent 55-717-4 line for the woeful Raiders back in 2007, and the eighth-year vet stands to become the No. 1 aerial target in St. Louis come Week One. If Curry is able to spice up the lackluster Ram passing attack, he could be a bona fide No. 3 Fantasy wideout even after Avery returns. If you grab Avery in your draft (and he may be a nice value pick at this point) be prepared to snag Curry later on…then keep whichever of them becomes The Man in St. Loo.

Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers are searching for a deep threat to replace the departed Nate Washington, and Sweed looks like he could be that guy – and more. The 6′4″ Sweed isn’t the greatest of route runners, but his size and speed create all kinds of match-up problems for opposing secondaries. He hauled in a 45-yard reception in the Steelers’ first pre-season game, and more should be in store as the big kid adjusts to regular playing time. There are some downsides to Sweed: he has yet to win Ben Roethlisberger’s trust in the red zone (or any zone for that matter) and his sub par blocking may limit his playing time. If your league rewards long distance touchdowns, though, Sweed is well worth a late-round look as a reserve wideout – with the upside to become a starter if either Hines Ward or Santonio Holmes succumbs to injury.

Chaz Schilens, Oakland Raiders: With top draft pick Darius Heyward-Bey battling hamstring problems early in camp, Schilens has emerged as Oakland’s top wideout – and he may just keep that distinction after DHB returns. Schilens has the kind of size (6′4″, 225) that could make him an inviting red zone target for quarterback JaMarcus Russell – especially if defenses are draped all over Russell’s favourite 2008 target, tight end Zach Miller. As your draft winds down, consider taking a flier on Schilens, and if he winds up on the waiver wire be prepared to grab him if he has a breakout game.

Josh Morgan, San Francisco 49ers: Every day that San Francisco’s top draft pick Michael Crabtree resides on the nation’s unemployment roll, Morgan’s stock drifts higher and higher. The second-year wideout scored three times on his 20 receptions a season ago and averaged a respectable 16 yards per catch. The current No. 1 wideout in San Fran is Isaac Bruce, but he’ll turn 37 this season, and is clearly nearing the end of his fine career. The opportunity is there for the athletic Morgan to stake his claim as the 49ers’ wideout of the future, and even if that doesn’t happen, he should still see plenty of looks even after Crabtree finally inks a deal and makes it onto the field. Crabtree’s holdout looks like it could be a long one, so bump Morgan up your sleeper board a few notches, as he could easily lead ‘Niner wideouts in yardage and/or touchdowns this season. Don’t look for week-in-week-out consistency from Morgan, but his big-play potential (and Crabtree’s holdout) makes him worth drafting as your No. 4 Fantasy wideout.

Tight Ends

Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles: The departure of L.J. Smith (37-298-3 in 13 games last season) opens the door for Celek, who was very impressive in last year’s playoffs – snagging 19 receptions for 151 yards and three touchdowns. The 24-year-old Celek has been very sharp in camp, and the Eagles have made it quite clear that he’ll play a large role in their offense this season. Don’t worry about Celek’s pedestrian 27-318-1 line of a year ago: He is a talented receiver who has the ability to get down the field, and to make something good happen after he gets the ball. If he wins Donovan McNabb’s red-zone trust early on, Celek could post numbers worthy of Fantasy starter status in 2009.

IDP

Jermaine Phillips, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs plan to move Phillips to Derrick Brooks’ old digs at weak side linebacker, and if the former safety can make the transition, his tackle numbers should skyrocket in 2009. Brooks – who was a Tampa Bay icon before his release – amassed more than 100 total tackles in 12 straight seasons, while intercepting 24 passes, recording 12.5 sacks and scoring seven touchdowns over that period. While Phillips probably won’t achieve those totals, he is a solid defender who racked up 109 tackles of his own back in 2006. Phillips is injury-prone, but his move to the Will ‘backer spot (and rare DB/LB position eligibility) makes him a risk worth taking as you fill out your Fantasy roster.

SG: Mickael Pietrus, Orlando Magic– Penciled in as starting SG in Orlando, he is very talented and should get enough run.

SF: Francisco Garcia, Sacramento Kings – With Ron Artest gone, Garcia will finally get starter-type minutes. He has shown he can put up solid numbers when he plays, but note that he may miss some time with a calf strain at the outset.

PF: Charlie Villanueva, Milwaukee Bucks – Yi Jianlian getting dealt to New Jersey leaves Charlie V. as the starting PF on the Bucks, and he’ll get a chance to prove his worth.

C: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls – After showing improvement late last season, he could earn more minutes.

Second Team

PG: Marcus Williams, Golden State Warriors – Run ‘N Gun with this tubby point guard may result in big numbers. Also, Monta Ellis is out for at least three months, further enhancing Williams’s chances of breaking out.

SG: Mike Miller, Minnesota Timberwolves – I think Miller will get plenty of shots in Minnesota. He has a deadly stroke from outside. Who likes threes?

SF: Yi Jianlian, New Jersey Nets – Yi gets his wish to move to a bigger market. I think he’ll make strides and puts up good numbers.

PF: Al Harrington, Golden State Warriors – Should get more minutes this year in Nelly’s system, and that usually translates into big numbers.

C: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves – Love will be a solid contributor on the front line from Day One. The dude eats rebounds.

First Team

PG: Chris Duhon, New York Knicks – A likely starting point guard in a Mike D’Antoni offense? Sign me up.

SG: Rudy Fernandez, Portland Trailblazers – Coach Nate McMillan is going to have a tough time keeping Fernandez off the court. Did you watch the Olympics? This is a great late steal in my opinion.

SF: Ricky Davis, Los Angeles Clippers – Davis will replace Corey Maggette on the Clip Show. I think he could average 15 to 17 points a game, easy. Throw in four to five assists and boards a game and you are in business.

PF: Michael Beasley, Miami Heat – I don’t know if you can call him a sleeper, but people should not overlook him because he is a rook. I think Beasley has a legitimate shot to be an All-Star this year even with Shawn Marion and Dwyane Wade.

C: Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies – Don’t sleep on Pau’s younger brother. He is a skilled big man who can fill up the paint, and quite possibly the stat sheet. Who else is going to use up the centre minutes on the Grizz?

As most fantasy owners know, the most important part of any fantasy season is the draft. Right now, NBA fantasy drafts are in full swing. And, finding free and accurate rankings, with sound reasoning, is next to impossible. I am going to break down the top 10 players at each position with a little information about why the player is ranked where he is. Enjoy!

Point Guards

Point guard might be the most important position in fantasy basketball. We see teams moving towards “small ball,” and Chris Paul led the way last season.

1. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets: Paul is hands down the best fantasy PG in the game right now, and an argument can be made to take CP3 first overall in a draft. The Hornets have all the same faces back, plus have added James Posey.

2. Deron Williams, Utah Jazz: From what I’ve seen around the Internet, the popular pick at No. 3 is either Chauncey Billups or Steve Nash. Personally, I will take Williams over both. D-Willy signed a big contract over the summer and playing on the Olympic Team only helped him mature. If he can cut down on the turnovers, he will earn this ranking this season.

3. Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons: Billups is consistent, trustworthy and reliable. The main thing with him is his 17 point/seven assist average last season. Not much has changed in Detroit this offseason, so expect more of the same from Mr. Big Shot.

4. Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns: The problem with Nash is that the team is talking about limiting his minutes and games played this season. GM Steve Kerr said he would like Nash to play just 70 games, and that is not a good thing from your first round pick. Nash already has a hole in steals and free-throws attempts for a fantasy PG, so limiting his minutes and games means his value is dropping.

5. Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors: T.J. Ford is out, Jermaine O’Neal is in, and Calderon is locked into the starting PG role in Toronto. Calderon didn’t exactly impress in the Olympics, which means he could come a little cheaper, but make no mistake about his top six fantasy ranking.

6. Baron Davis, Los Angeles Clippers: Davis is always an injury waiting to happen. But, he has lost nearly 20 pounds this offseason and playing alongside the likes of Al Thornton, Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon means another huge year is in the works. The reason he drops out of the top five is the Clippers managed just 94.3 PPG last season as a team. Slower offense means less fantasy stats to go around.

7. Devin Harris, New Jersey Nets: Some might want Jason Kidd here, but I like Harris as my fantasy PG sleeper. Yes, we all know who he is, but I think he is going to be better than people think this season. I can easily see Harris breaking the 16 point/7 assist barrier, moving him above Kidd.

8. Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks: Kidd’s days of major fantasy value are over. He is still the starting PG in Dallas, but his FG percentage is atrocious at best, his points-per-game total is going to drop below double digits and the turnovers went up last season. The assists and rebounds are the only things keeping him in the top 10.

9. Andre Miller, Philadelphia 76ers: Miller gets in the top 10 because of one man, Elton Brand. Miller’s PPG average will go down, but the assists will go up for certain. If you miss the big boys, give Miller a look as he is sure to slip.

10. Randy Foye, Minnesota Timberwolves: Okay, I am a homer…so what? Foye is healthy, Mike Miller is starting at SG, and Sebastian Telfair is Foye’s only backup. Foye lit it up over his final 10 games last season (18.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.2 3-pointers per game) and if he can continue that into this season, we’ve got a sleeper on our hands.

Shooting Guards

Shooting guards are a dime a dozen. They are typically known for their high FT percentage and they get you solid totals in 3-point shooting and steals. But, they will typically drag down your FG percentage.

1. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers: Bryant is easily one of the top three to five fantasy players in the NBA, so what more do I need to say? If your league has FG percentage, take Kobe over LeBron James. If FG percentage isn’t counted, go with James first.

2. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat: Miami now has Shawn Marion (for a full season) and Michael Beasley to play with Wade, and he is finally healthy, to boot. Add in Mario Chalmers and James Jones, and Flash makes for a viable pick at No. 4 overall in just about any fantasy format.

3. Jason Richardson, Charlotte Bobcats: Richardson’s 3-point shooting helps jump him over guys like Andre Iguodala and Allen Iverson. The only problem I have with Richardson is Coach Larry Brown and how they will interact with each other. Richardson was simply awesome last season and I expect that to carry over to this season.

4. Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers: The addition of Brand will help take the double-teams off Iggy this year. Signing a six-year, $80 million dollar contract this summer will give him added motivation as well. Expect Iguodala, who also qualifies at F, to get a few more assists and better looks patrolling the paint with Brand in town.

5. Kevin Martin, Sacramento Kings: There is nobody on the Kings better equipped to score. And, with Ron Artest gone, Martin is the only sure thing in Sacramento. Expect more points, more 3s, more free-throw chances, at the expense of added turnovers and a slightly lower FG percentage.

6. Allen Iverson, Denver Nuggets: The Answer has learned to be more of a team player in recent seasons. The Nuggets lost Camby this offseason, but that means Nene has a chance to really emerge. I would venture to bet that Iverson puts up very similar stats to last season’s totals.

7. Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: Losing Josh Childress won’t change the fact that Johnson is the MVP of the Hawks. A slight increase in PPG and TOs can be expected, but other than that, more of the same.

8. Stephen Jackson, Golden State Warriors: The Warriors lost Davis and Monta Ellis will miss a good chunk the season. Jackson (who will also qualify at F) should see a jump in PPG and FG percentage, so feel good about snagging him in the fourth round of your draft.

9. Brandon Roy, Portland Trailblazers: Vince Carter should be here on most lists, but he tweaked his hamstring (although he seems okay right now) and the Nets will lose more than they win. Roy has a great, young team surrounding him and Greg Oden will dominate the Rookie of the Year voting. The Blazers lost Martell Webster for two months, but Roy has enough around him to justify this ranking.

10. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder: Yes, I left Carter out of the top 10 altogether. Durant showed signs last season of being an amazing talent and I fully expect him to score more, shoot more accurately and even snag an extra rebound per game. Jeff Green should mature, making Durant a viable top 10 fantasy SG.

Small Forwards

If two guards are a dime a dozen, small forwards are a baker’s dozen. James is the name here, but I could count 25 or so SFs worth taking in the draft.

1. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers: Again, James can be selected anywhere in the top three and you could easily justify the pick. Other than adding Mo Williams, not much has changed in Cleveland, so expect James to do what he has done since his rookie season — dominate.

2. Shawn Marion, Phoenix Suns: I saw one ranking with Marion above James and I wanted to upload a virus to their server! I have a feeling that Marion isn’t going to do what he is supposed to do because of a healthy Wade and new additions Beasley, Chalmers and Jones. The Matrix is still the second best SF, but don’t be surprised if he disappoints.

3. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers: I think Granger will really explode this season. He wants a contract extension and that is normally motivation enough for a career year. Add the fact that Jermaine O’Neal is gone and Jamaal Tinsley will not stealing shots, and you have a shot at fantasy stardom from Granger.

4. Caron Butler, Washington Wizards: Butler is without Gilbert Arenas yet again this season, so he will be a very valuable fantasy SF. Antawn Jamison is there, but Butler should see stats very similar to the ones he put up last season.

5. Rashard Lewis, Orlando Magic: The Magic lost Kenyon Dooling and Maurice Evans (nothing important), but brought in Mickael Pietrus to go with Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu. Expect Lewis to be a big 3-point threat and help out a little in rebounds, steals and FG percentage, but know that his nightly stats can be erratic at times.

6. Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets: Anthony goes below Lewis because Lewis will get you the long ball on top of the regular stats. Melo will lead the Nuggets with 28 to 30 points each night, while snatching eight or so rebounds and a steal, so don’t worry if you miss on Granger or Butler, Anthony is still available to score in bunches.

7. Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics: People want to rank Pierce in their top five and he just isn’t that player anymore with Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo in town. The Truth was dealing with a laundry list on injuries last season and losing Posey might be more of a problem than people think, although once he returns from his drug suspension, Darius Miles should help out if he can be consistent. Rookie J.R. Giddens may be a headache, but because of his presence Pierce might see a slight dip in his overall stats this season.

8. Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies: His dunks aside, Gay has the skills to be huge in fantasy leagues this season. He is locked into a starting job with nobody to push him for minutes, and he made the most of his PT last season by putting up 20 points, six rebounds and a steal per game. Expect more of the same with a possible slight bump in points and boards.

9. Corey Maggette, Golden State Warriors: Some might want Turkoglu or Josh Howard here, but I like Maggette’s scoring ability over that pair. Maggette signed a big deal with the Warriors this offseason, but his injury concerns are always present. With Davis gone and Ellis hurting, Maggette and Jackson will be asked to carry a big role with the team.

10. Josh Howard, Dallas Mavericks: I would rather put Turkoglu here, but only because Howard has made some ignorant comments about players and their drug habits. Howard could easily put up 20 points and seven boards per game as he did last year, if he could keep the sticky icky out of his body long enough to play his game on the court.

Power Forwards

At power forward you want scoring, FG percentage and rebounding. Some even provide solid blocks and FT percentage too. A lot of the top PFs also qualify at centre, so they provide a multi-position bonus.

1. Amare Stoudemire, Phoenix Suns: Any PF that logs 24 PPG, 10 RPG, one SPG and two BPG is worthy of the top slot in the rankings. I’ve heard crazy talk of people taking Stoudemire No. 1 overall, but that is overdoing it in my opinion. Top five? Yes. Top three? No.

2. Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics: Garnett got the monkey off his back last season by winning the title, but the days of taking KG No. 1 overall are long gone. Garnett can easily put up a double-double each night, while adding a steal and block. The Big Ticket is great for a fantasy team, just don’t jump too high to draft him.

3. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks: Disco Dirk is rock solid and he offers stats good enough to justify a late first round pick or an early second rounder. His 3-pointers have gone down in recent seasons and his defense is lacking at best. But, bad defense aside, Nowitzki offers 24 points and eight boards a game.

4. Elton Brand, Philadelphia 76ers: Moving to the East will be a huge boost for Brand. I’d say we could see 20 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks a game, with a steal and a few assists thrown in. Simply put, Brand signed a huge deal and the East isn’t exactly a powerhouse.

5. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs: Duncan would have once been the top overall PF pick, but those days are finished and he is too nice of a player. Coach Gregg Popovich likes to play Duncan no more than 34 minutes per game, he is now 32 years old and his free-throw percentage is iffy at best. Add all that up and Duncan is not worthy of a first round pick.

6. Al Jefferson, Minnesota Timberwolves: The only thing that kept me from putting Jefferson above Duncan is The Big Fundamental’s blocking ability. Since Jefferson qualifies at both forward and centre, he is a high second round pick. Simply put, Jefferson is a fantasy stud!

7. Carlos Boozer, Utah Jazz: With Williams in line for a big season, Boozer too should enjoy a great year. Did I mention Boozer is in a contract year? Not to put too fine a point on it, but Boozer should put up huge numbers in order to secure a max deal next season.

8. Chris Bosh, Toronto Raptors: The addition of O’Neal knocked Bosh down the rankings a bit. Calderon is coming into his own and J.O. demonstrated in Indiana that he demands his fair share of shots per game. O’Neal is an upgrade over Rasho Nesterovic, which means Bosh’s scoring will take a hit.

9. Antawn Jamison, Washington Wizards: With Arenas gone for most of the season, Jamison should enjoy those 21-point, 10-rebound nights again this season. Nothing has changed from last year for the Wizards, Arenas is injured again and nobody has left or been added worth mentioning. So, more of the same is in line for Jamison.

10. Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks: Smith signed an offer sheet with the Grizzlies, but had it matched by the Hawks, so he should step up his numbers knowing that he’s coveted in Atlanta. Childress is gone and Smoov is logging nearly 17 points, three blocks, eight rebounds and three assists per game these days. Look for all the same with an addition point or two a game.

Centres

This is by far the hardest position to find quality fantasy options. Once you get outside the top 10 fantasy centres, you officially waited too long to draft one!

1. Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic: Howard was a fantasy monster last season, making him an easy pick as the No. 1 fantasy centre this season. Getting 21 points, 14 rebounds and two blocks a game is what I see for Howard. Just be prepared to pretty much punt FT percentage and turnovers in your rotisserie league.

2. Yao Ming, Houston Rockets: The main problem with drafting Ming is you know he will miss about a quarter of the season with some kind of injury. I’m kind of getting tired of being burned by Ming and his fragile body, so I am not drafting him unless he is available in round three and the PFs that qualify at C and Howard are all gone.

3. Marcus Camby, Los Angeles Clippers: Cotton Camby has been surprisingly healthy the last two seasons. The Nuggets gave the Cambyman to the Clippers for nothing more than salary cap relief, so he may have a chip on his shoulder. Camby is going to see a drop in rebounds playing next to Kaman, and that is one of the two categories he contributes in. Now, expect 10 boards and three blocks a game with sporadic scoring.

4. Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee Bucks: Bogut signed one of the biggest contracts in franchise history, so you know he will be the starting centre for years to come. If he can keep up last season’s impressive block jump, he should post 15 points, 10 boards and one to two blocks per game this season too.

5. Greg Oden, Portland Trailblazers: It is very risky for me to give a true rookie this high of a ranking. But, Robert Parish, Oden (separated at birth?) is set to put up 10 points, 12 rebounds and two or more blocks per game. Get that kind of production from a centre and you’ve got a fantasy stud!

6. Andris Biedrins, Golden State Warriors: Ronny Turiaf is now a Warrior, but he is little more than a breather when your real centre is tired. Biedrins should offer a double-double with a block or so per game, so you could do worse. Just don’t wait much longer to get your starting centre.

7. Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers: Bynum really emerged last year before an injury ended his breakout season. He remains a huge injury concern with that gimpy knee, but he is turning 21 this month and with Kobe, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom on the roster, Bynum can sit back and let the game come to him.

8. Samuel Dalembert, Philadephia 76ers: It is hard to see how the addition of Brand will affect Dalembert’s numbers too much. Sammy-D averaged a double-double with two blocks last year, so take off a point per game and a rebound per game and that is what to expect from him this season.

9. Mehmet Okur, Utah Jazz: Nothing has changed in Utah, so look for Okur to put up 15 points and seven boards per game again this season. The real added beauty in Okur is that he can hit the 3-pointer, which is a rare feat to see in a true centre. Now if Okur could only get his blocks up, we’d be in business.

10. Tyson Chandler, New Orleans Hornets: I am going to pick the Hornets to win the title this season, so I wish I could rank Chandler higher than this. I’m giving Chandler around 11 points, 12 rebounds and one to two blocks per game this season. The FG percentage is awesome at 60 per cent, but having a matching FT percentage is what is holding him back here.

Busts

Here’s my list of proven players that I don’t think will live up to the expectations this season.

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers: I know, I know, but the Lakers are a very good team with Bynum back. Very good teams tend to have a lot of blowout games, and that means Kobe will sit more in the fourth quarter. His finger is all messed up, his legs have run more than a Kentucky Derby horse. Bryant is no longer a one-man fantasy league winner.

Marcus Camby, Los Angeles Clippers: Cotton Camby has moved to the Clippers from the Nuggets, and that means he goes from the 102.3 PPG offense in Denver down to the 94.3 PPG offense in Los Angeles. Camby will also have to battle Kaman for rebounds and he is always one breath away from a long injury absence. Don’t take Camby as your No. 1 centre; look at some of those PF/C guys first.

Andre Miller, Philadelphia 76ers: I know I ranked him in the top 10 for PGs, but it was more because of Brand than Miller. I am giving him a bust ranking too because Miller is going to be 33 years old in March, history has shown that he’s not a very good shooter, and the offense is sure to run more through Brand than him. The assists will jump a bit, but everything else will go down.

Mo Williams, Cleveland Cavaliers: Here is the one I feel good about. Williams moves to Cleveland to play alongside LeBron and everyone assumes that means fantasy greatness. Wrong! The offense starts and ends with King James and Williams is a shoot-first type of player, so don’t expect him to bring it up court and dish it off to anyone. Williams is going to be someone’s No. 1 PG, just make sure he isn’t yours.

Sleepers

Here are some names that will be ranked at a level lower than I expect them to perform.

Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder: Yes, Durant has the low FG percentage/high TO rate that makes him shaky in a lot of leagues. But, Durant is the LeBron James of Oklahoma City and he looked better in the second half of last year than he did in the first. He has no off-court problems and the emergence of Green will help take some of the pressure off him. Don’t aim too high, but expect more than last year.

J.R. Smith, Denver Nuggets: Now, this is the ultimate sleeper pick. Problem is, Smith could easily slip into a fantasy comma. Look, his stats increased each month from February to April in MPG, FT percentage and defensive rebounding, while his 3-point shooting percentage took a hit. If Smith can keep his flaky personality in check, his playing time should spike and that means this sharp-shooter could be a great late round pick for you.

Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies: I wanted to find a way to rank Conley in the PG top 10, but I am not going to get crazy with him. Last season he missed big chunks of time with injuries, he had a high turnover rate, and being 20 years old in the NBA is hardly ever a good thing. Any time a team burns a high pick on you, they are certain to give you more than enough chances to prove yourself. His main problems are Kyle Lowry and that Shaq-esk FT percentage he brings to the table.

Earl Watson, Oklahoma City Thunder: What will scare most fantasy players away from Watson is that he has never truly lived up to his hype and the Thunder took Russell Westbrook in the draft. But, Westbrook isn’t a true PG and I like the fact Luke Ridnour is finally out of the way. I don’t think Westbrook is going to make a viable starting PG in the NBA, so the job is Watson’s to lose.

I know the top 10 players at each position can be a bit of an obvious call for those seasoned fantasy veterans. But, some of you tend to overthink your picks and hopefully this cleared up a lot of those questions. Should you have more, feel free to e-mail me and I will answer your question.

We’ve finished the cheat sheets for the 2008-09 RotoRob NHL Draft Kit, and now we’re into a series of lists. Today, Mike pipes in with his Sleeper picks for the upcoming season.

Once the big guns are drafted, things get a little muddy — and depending on how many people are in your fantasy league, you might be stretching to find diamonds in the third-line rough. Here’s a list of ten guys to keep an eye on when you’re filling your mid- and late-round holes. Keep in mind that they cover various positions and areas of depth; however, they all share one thing: they’ll probably be overlooked by a lot of people.

Jason Williams, Atlanta Thrashers: Before getting injured last season, Williams was a ppivotal part of the Chicago power play. However, it’s not too surprising he was allowed to walk with Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and the Hawks’ young defense needing new contracts in the next few seasons. In Atlanta, he’ll be scoring option No. 2 next to Ilya Kovalchuk — that means plenty of power play time to try to push the Thrashers
over the hump.

Joe Pavelski, San Jose Sharks: By the time Pavelski’s season came to a close, he’d worked his way on to a permanent second-line spot and power play time — and he responded by scoring big goals at clutch times. A smart player with tenacity and great vision, Pavelski could quietly break the 25-goal mark this season.

Brendan Morrison, Anaheim Ducks: With whispers of Teemu Selanne’s imminent return, the world suddenly became much brighter for Morrison. Hard to believe that just a few years ago he centred the best line in hockey with Markus Naslund and Todd Bertuzzi. Since then, injuries and a defensive system have hampered Morrison. Still, he’s a skilled passer who should rediscover his touch feeding Selanne.

Kyle Turris, Phoenix Coyotes: Last year, Phoenix rookie Peter Mueller had people talking about the Coyotes’ bright future. Turris, a former first rounder, will step into the lineup with less pressure than Mueller (the addition of Olli Jokinen helps), but with every opportunity to succeed. Talented and shifty, Turris is an early Calder candidate and a 60-point campaign is a reasonable projection.

David Booth, Florida Panthers: Booth came out of nowhere last season to be one of the few bright spots in a very up-and-down season in the land of 4 p.m. dinner specials. With Jokinen gone, 23-year-old Booth will be given more ice time and special teams time. Someone’s gotta score in Florida, and if it’s not Nathan Horton or Stephen Weiss, it’ll probably be Booth.

R.J. Umberger, Columbus Blue Jackets: Is Umberger a top-line centre? We’re about to find out. In Philadelphia, Umberger showed flashes of great play (especially in the playoffs against the Habs) while being lost in a wash of forward talent. In Columbus, he’ll centre Rick Nash with the hopes that he provides some scoring balance and has a career season.

Pascal Dupuis, Pittsburgh Penguins: The other deadline acquisition in Pittsburgh, Dupuis found great chemistry with Sidney Crosby. If you play well with the league’s best player, why change a thing? Despite his third-line skillset, Dupuis will be given every opportunity to thrive alongside Sid the Kid.

Chris Mason, St. Louis Blues: Last year, Manny Legace played his way on to the all-star team. Will this season be any different? Mason’s arrival in St. Louis gives the No. 1 goalie position some healthy competition. After being left for dead by Nashville, Mason should be given a chance to reclaim a starting role.

Ruslan Fedotenko, Pittsburgh Penguins: Consider Fedotenko to be Ryan Malone-light. Fedotenko has had some great seasons and some awful seasons, but he was at his best when used alongside Tampa’s top wingers. Fedotenko will most likely ride shotgun to Evgeni Malkin, so he’ll get his share of points by default.

Olaf Kolzig, Tampa Bay Lightning: While Tampa’s crazy management is giving Mike Smith every opportunity to shine, Kolzig’s role is to be goalie 1B/mentor/backup. That means that if Smith caves under the pressure — as has happened in Tampa Bay lately — Kolzig will be given the reins to be a No. 1 goalie again. At his best, Kolzig will get in 40 to 50 games.