The 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit continues as we release more of the Top 10 Lists Fantasy Owners Always Wanted But Were Afraid to Ask For. Today, Alex has his choices for 2009 flops.

They were huge in 2008, but these are the players who won’t come close to repeating their performances  of last season.

1. Edison Volquez, SP, Cincinnati Reds – There is no way in hell that Volquez repeats his 2008 season in which he won 17 games, had a 3.21 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He pitched nearly 200 innings and went over 110 pitches over a dozen times. Dusty Baker wore him out last year and now he will likely suffer the fate of so many before him. I think an ERA around 4.00 with 12 to 15 wins is more likely this go around. Then again, an injury to his overworked arm is possible and if that happens, Volquez could put up something much, much lower.

2. Joe Saunders, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in California near the Pacific – Bazooka Joe posted 17 wins and a 3.41 ERA in 2008 despite getting hit all year. He does not get many strikeouts and hitters are always putting the ball in play. I will be surprised if his ERA is lower than 4.50, as the baseball gods create balance in the universe. I would avoid him this year because you will be overpaying for an average pitcher. Sorry Joe, it’s a No-Go!

3. Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves – I know a lot of Braves fans will get all fussy for me putty Larry Jones on this list, but is there any way he can replicate last year? No, he can’t. Jones ended up posting a batting average of .364 after he was chasing .400 for a couple of months. Sure, he probably will bat over .300 and still hit 20 home runs, but he will not be nearly the effective fantasy contributor as he was last year. Besides, have you noticed how chunky he’s looking at the WBC?

4. Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland Indians – This southpaw had an amazing season last year, and while he could be good again in 2009, I do not see him approaching those kind of numbers. In 2008, he posted 22 wins to go with his 2.54 ERA. That is absurd for an Indian pitcher last year! I think a 3.50 ERA to go with 14 to 18 wins is more likely this year, so do not overpay for him. I only see a small chance at him coming close to last year and becoming a consistent fantasy pitcher. I do think he is much better than Volquez and Saunders, but all three of them will fall back to the pack.

5. Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs – I think we are seeing a theme with pitchers, but it is true, we see this every season. There are a handful of pitchers that fall flat on their face or jump back to reality after a superb season. Dempster, after leaving the bullpen for a starting gig, posted 17 wins and a 2.96 ERA to go with a decent 1.21 WHIP. Here we have another candidate to drop in every category, but I think his drop will be less severe than the previously mentioned pitchers. The Cub offense can score runs and I still think a line resembling 15 wins, a 3.50 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP is reasonable for Dempster.

6. Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis Cardinals – At 29 years old, Ludwick finally had a breakout year, slugging 37 home runs and driving in 113 runs to go with a stellar .299 batting average. If you take Ludwick this year, remember you will be overpaying for a commodity that has not proven himself on a consistent basis. One good year does not ensure results for the next season. I would expect Ludwick’s home run total to drop back to the high 20s and he may not even reach 100 RBI. I would avoid him this year, as his stock is too high.

7. Armando Galarraga, SP, Detroit Tigers – Armando had a great rookie season last year, racking up 12 wins with a 3.73 ERA and a nice 1.13 WHIP. For me, he does not really pass the eye test. Galarraga just does not look as good as his numbers last year. He gives up a lot of long fly balls and his strike out rate is below average. I think Galarraga’s ERA balloons into the high 4.00-range this year and he falls into fantasy irrelevancy.

8. Brad Hawpe, OF, Colorado Rockies – Hawpe has been a favourite of mine the last few years as I have used him multiple times to fill in for injuries and such. With that said, I think the loss of Matt Holliday tremendously diminishes the potential of everyone else left in Colorado to produce. I think the protection Holliday provided to Hawpe gave Hawpe the chance to hit with runners on and in favourable situations. With Holliday hitting dingers in Oakland, Hawpe will feel naked in the Colorado cold. He will have plenty of opportunities to “vent” to his teammates.

9. Jayson Werth, OF, Philadelphia Phillies – Last season, Werth had 24 home runs, 67 RBI and 20 steals, making him a well rounded fantasy presence. This year, even with the chance to start full-time, I think he will take a step back. He constantly has nagging injuries which I think will contribute to him sliding back to the pack. Werth could be a low risk, high reward type of guy, but I think I would avoid him this year. I would expect at least five fewer home runs and steals from the Phillie outfielder this season.

10. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: A pretty sweet BA with 30-30 potential, right? Uh, not so fast. Did you notice that Phillips struggled to a .225 second half with just six homers and four steals? I’d tread cautiously here.

Welcome back to the 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit. Over the next few weeks, we will be rolling out cheat sheets with analysis, essays and the classic Top 10 Lists that Fantasy Owners Always Wanted But Were Afraid to Ask For, a compendium of 10 Top 10 lists that no fantasy owner should be without. We’ll continue that today with Alex’s offering of the Top 10 source of Cheap Steals.

This is all these players do – steal bases. They can’t hit for an extremely high average, have no power, but they will steal bases. Who are they?

We know the Chone Figgins, Willy Taveras and Denard Span types will rack up the steals, but none of them will come cheap. So, we’re going to focus on players who will likely be late-round bargains who can help you win this category.

1. Michael Bourn, OF, Houston Astros – Projected 40-50 steals. If Bourn is to keep his starting gig in Astro-Land, he needs to improve upon his .230 batting average last year. When he does reach first base, he instantly becomes a weapon on the base path. Look for him to improve slightly and get more chances to steal. Last year he stole 42 bases, but expect him to approach 50 this year. If he struggles at the plate for an extended timeframe to open the season, I would not be surprised to see Houston look for other options. Personally, I would rather have Jason Bourne, but that is neither here nor there…

2. Carlos Gomez, OF, Minnesota Twins – Projected 30-35 steals. Gomez finds himself in the same category as Bourn. Improve or lose you job. Gomez is quite the base stealer and could some day easily steal 60, but he has trouble getting on base to do so. Last season, his on base percentage was .289, which is awful. I am sure coaches are working tirelessly on this project to find ways to get him on base. Last year he was sort of a pop out machine, so he did not even get to utilize his speed to leg out base hits. I still think Gomez is a lock for 30 steals, as he has too much talent and there is too much potential to see this guy on the Twinkies bench.

3. Jerry Owens, OF, Chicago White Sox – Projected 20-30 steals. Owens received some playing time last year with the injury of Carlos Quentin. Now, he finds himself battling for the centrefield job with DeWayne Wise. If Owens wins it he could approach 30 steals this year, but he does not do much more than steal. He won’t go yard, and he won’t drive in runs, so be careful with this one trick fantasy pony.

4. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers – Projected 25-35 steals. After Texas moved Michael Young to third base, the starting job at short belongs to the organization’s prized prospect. Andrus had over 50 steals last year at Triple-A, even after missing nearly a month with a broken hand. Elvis has some pop in his bat, but during his rookie campaign, he can only be relied upon for steals and runs. Eventually he could become a 15-20 home run guy, but we will have to see how he adjusts.

5. Coco Crisp, OF, Kansas City Royals – 20-30 steals. Crisp will get a chance to play every day in Kansas City and he is sure to improve on his part-time numbers from last year. He is a veteran who knows how to get on base and move himself to second base. He may be a sleeper this year as he gets more at bats and more chances to shine. Crisp has never been a huge steal guy, but has consistently been in the 20s.

6. Nyger Morgan, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates – Projected 20-35 steals. The Pirates are banking on Morgan to be their opening day lead-off hitter and premier base stealer. He has been inconsistent with the big league chances he has received, but there is no denying his raw speed that could be harnessed to produce big thievery numbers.

7. Juan Pierre, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers – Projected 15-25 steals. The signing of Manny Ramirez crushes the fantasy potential of Pierre this year, unless he gets traded. Without Manny, Pierre projects to steal over 40, but with him only around 20. Pierre is the last man out in a crowded Dodger outfield and there is no way anyone in their right mind would sit Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, or Man-Ram in favour of Pierre in their everyday lineup. Pierre could still be an effective source of steals if you could start him only when you know he will play. Just add another person to the growing list of Manny Ramirez haters.

8. Felipe Lopez, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks – Projected 20 steals. Last season was a bit of a write-off for Lopez, as he failed to even reach double digits in steals. But consider two numbers: (a) 44, as in the number of bases he stole just two seasons ago; and (b) .360, as in his batting average after the break last season. Combine these two and you’ve got a major comeback on your hands, one you can invest in cheaply.

9. Julio Lugo, SS, Boston Red Sox – Projected 20 steals. After missing a huge chunk of 2008 thanks to a quad injury, Lugo has to compete to regain his starting shortstop job. So far, he looks like he’s up to the task, and if he can wrestle the gig back from Jed Lowrie, that projected steal total will look very conservative.

10. Randy Winn, OF, San Francisco Giants – Projected 20 steals. Okay, so he’s not exactly tearing the cover off the ball this spring, but that’s all the more reason he will once again fly slightly below the radar on draft day. But when you look up at season’s end and see another quality line from Winn, you’ll wonder why you constantly ignore him on draft day.

Well, the NBA season is headed down the home stretch and you may find yourself in a situation where you need to attack certain fantasy categories. For those rotisserie basketball guys, you may need to shore up in some cats and catch up in others. Blocks is a category that usually has more teams closer together due to the fact that this is just not as plentiful a commodity as other stats like points, rebounds, and assists. With that said, if you pick up a few regular ball swatters and give them some play, you may find yourself gaining faster in blocks than any other category. Here are a list of guys that may be available in your league that put up solid block numbers.

1. Chris Andersen, F, Denver Nuggets – They call him Birdman for a reason; white boy got hops. Andersen is a mad man on the court who specializes in the art of rejection. For the year, he is averaging 2.33 blocks per contest, but in the past two weeks — much of which has seen Nene out — he has been even better, averaging 3.75 a game. You can almost justify giving someone a starting gig in fantasy if they block nearly four shots a game. That is like having a gunner that drops 30 a night. Birdman also gives you boards and a nice shooting percentage.

2. Ronny Turiaf, C, Golden State Warriors – Turiaf started getting more playing time with Andris Biedrins out, and he produced. So now, even with Biedrins back, Turiaf is getting some clock. He’s averaged over two blocks a game for the year, and is certainly going to contribute with some scoring and boards when he gets his minutes.

3. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers – As long as Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby and Zach Randolph keep missing action for various reasons, Jordan will get you blocks and rebounds. The blocks, 11 in his last three games, is the real key to why he may hold value. Kaman is supposed to come back soon if his MRI goes well, so make sure to pay attention to that if you decide to go after Jordan.

4. Dominic McGuire, F, Washington Wizards – Although McGuire has recently cooled down in the blocks department, he is still averaging about 1.7 a game for the last three weeks. He is a young, energetic guy who the Wizards figure to use a lot as they participate in the Blake Griffin Tankfest of 2009.

5. Anthony Randolph, F, Golden State Warriors – If you have seen the Warriors play over the last two months, I am sure you have seen the raw ability of Randolph. In addition to being in good favour with coach Don Nelson right now (although he all know how that can change at any moment), he has at least one block in every game in March. Randolph can score and rebound in addition to blocking, so he is a prime late run pickup if you have a roster spot to spare.

6. Kendrick Perkins, C, Boston Celtics – With Kevin Garnett still out a few more games, Perkins will receive elevated minutes on the court. Perkins is a double-double threat every time he gets enough clock, and he’s also a capable shot blocker. If he is a free agent, he is a decent option at centre.

7. Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers – Hibbert can not seem to stay on the court more than 20 minutes a game because of his inability to stay out of foul trouble. This big stiff is assured of at least a block a game if he just puts his hands up. I am not in love with him as a fantasy option, but if you are in a deep league or are desperate, it could work.

8. Andray Blatche, F, Washington Wizards – Blatche has all the tools to be a stud, but he is still a bit lackadaisical on the floor. As discussed above, the Wizards will give young guys a lot of minutes as their season fades away into oblivion. Blatche, when he gets PT, is good for over a block a game.

9. Joel Pryzbilla, C, Portland Trail Blazers – As long as Greg Oden stays out, the Vanilla Gorilla will continue to swat shots in the Rose Garden. If you really need a centre, consider Przybilla, as he will rebound and block shots for you.

10. Brandon Bass, F, Dallas Mavericks – If you are so, so desperate, Bass has averaged a block a game in the past three weeks. He could do more if he got a chance, but he only sees 15-20 minutes a game, so it is hard to put up great numbers.

The Buffalo Bills signed WR Terrell Owens to a one year deal on Saturday, a move which seems to be in the best interest of both parties. Owens gives young QB Trent Edwards a threat that will allow for more single coverage looks to Lee Evans. Paired with Marshawn Lynch, the skill positions in Buffalo are all quite talented. Owens should put up good numbers, but this helps Edwards the most. Also, in the past week, the Bills added QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to hold the clipboard.

The other big QB signing of the week came when the Cardinals and Kurt Warner agreed to a two-year deal. I had a feeling that it would work out all along between Warner and the Cards and that the visit to the 49ers was not too serious, just a bargaining chip. Ultimately Warner got paid, but not the amount he wanted. Now it remains to be seen if the Cards will keep WR Anquan Boldin, so the aging QB may lose a top weapon.

There have been a couple of RB signings since free agency started, and all of them have a fairly low fantasy impact. Correll Buckhalter signed a deal with the Broncos, which ensures he will be severely injured at some point next season. Derrick Ward, part of the three-headed running back attack for the Giants, signed a deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he will compete for carries. Former Texas Longhorn standout and misdemeanor extraordinaire Cedric Benson has agreed to stay in Cincinnati, where he will likely be the starting running back. He had a decent year for the Bengals in 2008, so maybe he can build on that.

In WR news, the Seattle Seahawks’ signing of T.J. Houshmanzadeh took the headlines. Nobody has caught more balls the last four years than Houshmanzadeh, and he will look to establish a relationship with Matt Hasselbeck right away. TJH entertained a deal with the Vikings, which I think would have worked out better, but he opted for the northwest as he has ties to the Washington state region, having attended Oregon State. Obviously, if Hasselbeck stays healthy, his stock goes up for next year with a big new weapon at his disposal.

Welcome to another edition of The Hidden Truth. Today, we will take a look at steals. Here we have another fantasy category that is often overlooked, but is just as important as anything else. When you prepped for your draft, did you even look at steals? Would that even sway your decision for picking up a free agent? Do keep in mind that steals are usually a guard-oriented category; you do not get much help from your big guys. For that reason, there is no sense listing every centre in a list of dudes that don’t get steals. Instead, I will take you through three different lists.

10 Studs that Steal

This is the cream of the crop as far as steals go. They are all lock-em-up fantasy starters every week, with the exception of Mario Chalmers, who is a borderline fantasy starter. Consider this group the board of the Thievery Corporation.

1. Chris Paul, G, New Orleans Hornets: – 2.7 steals per game. Besides stealing basketballs from fellow NBAers, he is stealing Right Guard money for those awful commercials. I don’t care about Paul’s pits.

2. Jason Kidd, G, Dallas Mavericks – 2.2 steals per game. J-Kidd may be a fading star in the NBA, but there are several things he still does well, and creating turnovers is one of them.

3. Dwyane Wade, G, Miami Heat – 2.1 steals per game. Flash fills the passing lanes and comes up with over a couple steals per game. [As an aside, RotoRob had a dream the other night that he was Dwyane Wade and was playing a game of halfcourt using a 45 RPM record instead of a basketball. Can someone explain that, please?]

4. Rajon Rondo, G, Boston Celtics – 2.0 steals per game. Rondo has a large wingspan coupled with big hands that allows him to pick the pocket of his opponent with ease. You’ve been “Rondo’ed.”

5. Mario Chalmers, G, Miami Heat – 1.9 steals per game. Chalmers is the lone rookie on this list. He has had a fairly solid freshman campaign beneath the wing of  D-Wade, who has taught him a thing or two about NBA thievery.

6. LeBron James, F, Cleveland Cavaliers – 1.8 steals per game. What stat cat doesn’t King James fill?

7. Gerald Wallace, F, Charlotte Bobcats – 1.8 steals per game. Wallace is an ultra-athletic three man who contributes on both ends of the floor.

8. Baron Davis, G, Los Angeles Clippers – 1.8 steals per game. B Diddy could not shoot a beach ball into the Atlantic Ocean this year, but he still plays some D and comes up with loose balls. It also should be noted that he is stealing millions of dollars from Donald Sterling.

9. Ron Artest, F, Houston Rockets – 1.7 steals per game. Ron-Ron is a premier defender in the NBA who has always ranked high in steals. Even on one strong ankle, he’s still a stud in this cat.

10. Andre Iguodala, G, Philadelphia 76ers – 1.7 steals per game. Iggy helps your fantasy squad in many ways, including pitching in in the steals department.

10 Studs Who Should Get Steals, But Don’t

This is a list of guys that may surprise you with their theft ineptitude. If you have one of these guys, this does not mean you should cut or trade them. Simply realize that maybe you are lacking production in steals because of these guys.

1. Tayshaun Prince, F, Detroit Pistons – 0.5 steals per game. Prince is a lengthy defender that I would think would average at least 1.5 steals a game, but he’s never recorded more than 0.8 SPG in any one season.

2. Michael Beasley, F, Miami Heat – 0.5 steals per game. Beasley was dominant last year in college, but I am not really seeing the production and energy this year. That extends to the defensive end, where he has struggled at times.

3. Aaron Brooks, G, Houston Rockets – 0.6 steals per game. This lighting quick point guard is getting a chance to start now that Rafer Alston has been traded. It is a surprise, however, to see his steals down so far, seeing that he plays so fast and low to the ground.

4. D.J. Augustin, G, Charlotte Bobcats – 0.6 steals per game. This rookie is having a decent year, but has not gotten the steals one may think. His shot is starting to come around and he will improve his defense over the next few seasons, but don’t expect big steal numbers this year.

5. Raja Bell, G, Charlotte Bobcats – 0.6 steals per game. This is may be the most surprising guy on the list for me. Bell is a great defender but does not get steals, unlike Artest.

6. Steve Nash, G, Phoenix Suns – 0.7 steals per game. The aging Canadian national has never averaged over a steal a game during his stint in Phoenix. This may be a surprise to some seeing as how Paul, a guard with similar vision, averages over 2.5.

7. Richard Jefferson, F, Milwaukee Bucks – 0.7 steals per game. I would have thought that Jefferson would be over a steal a game, but apparently not.

8. Jamal Crawford, G, Golden State Warriors – 0.8 steals per game. Crawford is the ultimate gunner. He could give you 20 points, but he only throws in the occasional rebound, assist, steal, or block.

9. Ben Gordon, G, Chicago Bulls – 0.8 steals per game. See Crawford, Jamal.

10. Al Thornton, F, Los Angeles Clippers – 0.8 steals per game. Thornton is an improving player, but does not get very many steals. He does average nearly a block a game, so he does have a defensive presence.

10 Possible Free Agents who get Steals

Here is a list of guys that you can use for some spot starts or to fill in a hole. If you check you league standings and see points to gain in the steals department, it could not hurt to throw in a few spot starts with these guys, if they are available in your league.

1. Trevor Ariza, F, Los Angeles Lakers – 1.62 steals per game. Ariza has active hands and an improving perimeter game.

2. Ronnie Brewer, F, Utah Jazz – 1.63 steals per game. Brewer, who also made an appearance on the top FG percentage list, fills the steals category on a regular basis.

3. Delonte West, G, Cleveland Cavaliers – 1.49 steals per game. Now that Redz is back from injury, he is looking to contribute in points, assists, and steals.

4. Luke Ridnour, G, Milwaukee Bucks – 1.35 steals per game. Ridnour is sharing time with Ramon Sessions, but is a decent stopgap that can give you points, assists, and steals on a pretty regular basis.

5. Derek Fisher, G, Los Angeles Lakers – 1.27 steals per game. The Laker fans love Fisher, and so will you if you give him a spot start and he knocks down a few threes and throws in a few steals.

6. C.J. Watson, G, Golden State Warriors – 1.27 steals per game. It is always dangerous to mix fantasy basketball and Don Nelson. Proceed with caution.

[edit]7. Anthony Parker, G, Toronto Raptors – 1.24 steals per game. Parker is available in most leagues, and he puts up decent numbers, especially in steals. If I were Parker, I would never have time to get any steals because I would be too busy throwing up thinking about how Shelden Williams knocked up my sister. How gross.

8. Jamario Moon, F, Miami Heat – 1.13 steals per game. I think Moon could be a great fit in Miami. He could be worth a long term pick up if he continues to start.

9. Ronald Murray, G, Atlanta Hawks – 1.04 steals per game. Murray has been getting decent run lately. He can score and get you over a steal per game, too!

10. Jordan Farmar, G, Los Angeles Lakers – 1.05 steals per game. I think Farmar will start to get more and more minutes down the stretch. The Lakers will need him in the playoffs, and he provides energy, shooting, and defense on a pretty consistent basis.

With all this said, steals is just another category that you should consider when making any fantasy moves. Most people, I would say, tend to ignore steals, but there are roto points to be gained by those who pay attention to….The Hidden Truth.

As the clock struck midnight Friday morning, NFL free agency has officially begun. Over the next day or so, be prepared for some big news to drop.

Already in the morning hours, the Redskins have made the biggest splash, but it does not have a huge impact on the fantasy scene. The ‘Skins re-signed CB DeAngelo Hall and added DT Albert Haynesworth, inking both to big time deals. They are certain to have an improved defensive line now, but will it be worth the cost?

The Titans, after losing Haynesworth, could be about to lose QB Kerry Collins as well. The veteran QB is demanding more than he is worth, which has propelled negotiations with free agent QB Chris Simms. It looks like the Titans may be content on entering camp with Vince Young and Simms battling for the starting gig rather than overpaying for an aging Collins.

It has been reported that the Ravens have offered LB Ray Lewis $24 million over three years, with $17 million guaranteed. If the Ravens lose Lewis, I think the fantasy value of their defense is in question. Lewis is a leader and a player-coach, not to mention the heartbeat of the team. If the Ravens lose Bart Scott as well, they may lose their status of a top tier defense.

It looks like former Jaguars RB Fred Taylor will join the Patriots. If this goes down, I think is a great fit for both parties. The fantasy value of any New England backs are now limited. This makes me happy that I cut Laurence Maroney in my keeper league. Take that Millen, this is a GM with some foresight!

The Lions are going strong after WR Nate Washington to compliment Calvin Johnson. The former Steelers WR is rumored to be courted by Rams, Titans, Buccaneers, and Vikings. The addition of Washington would add depth to the Lions and give Matthew Stafford another weapon, assuming he is drafted #1 overall.

There is a rumor floating around saying that Marvin Harrison will sign with the Dolphins. That would be an interesting move for both parties, but I think it could work. Harrison has also been linked to his hometown Eagles, but I think there are too many distractions in Philly for Marvin.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh is being linked to the Eagles, Giants and Bears. I think he would be a great fit in Chicago and give them a reliable weapon. Joining in late in the sweepstakes are the Vikings. If the Purple People could make a trade for Sage Rosenfels and sign TJ, they would have quite an offense to go with Adrian Peterson. If I were in the Vikings front office, I would push hard for both of these deals.

The Cardinals have a big offseason to deal with, primarily because of contract talks with WR Anquan Boldin and QB Kurt Warner. Warner has said he will only come back with the Cards, but contract talks are still far apart. Also, it seems now that Boldin is open to the idea of returning if the money is right. My gut says both deals get done and the Cardinals will have their aerial attack in place next year.

The next 24 hours will be interesting as many of the players who had non-official deals in place before the opening of free agency will sign, as others continue to shop around for the big money. Also remember, the draft is only two months away. The NFL never ends!

Welcome to Part Three of the Field Goal percentage series, where we will take a look at the big fellas and their success flushing the rock. Centres, by nature, play down low and usually shoot a much higher percentage than other positions. The catch is that they are usually not gunners, and their field goal attempts are usually lower than the typical high scoring guard or forward. There are some big men that get lots of looks at a high success rate, and those are who we are targeting in this list. Remember, these rankings take into consideration the actual percentage coupled with the field goals attempted per game. Obviously, more field goals attempted by a player will affect this roto category more.

Top 10 Fantasy Ranking, Field Goal Percentage, Centres

1. Nene, Denver Nuggets (61%, 9.1 FGA, 14.7 PPG): The Brazilian big man has found success in the paint this year. Throw it down big fella, throw it down! Many have considered him an excellent sell high candidate for months because of his injury history, but we’re into late-February and he’s still balling.

2. Shaquille O’Neal, Phoenix Suns (59.5%, 11 FGA, 17.4 PPG): Just when everyone thought the Diesel was out of fuel, he posts All-Star numbers with an all-world swagger. Other than resting the occasional game earlier in the season, Shaq has been a reliable fantasy presence all year long. As much as he hurts your free throw percentage, he helps your field goal percentage even more.

3. Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic (56.9%, 12.5 FGA, 20.7 PPG): Howard is scary talented and he will only continue to get better. Seeing as how most of his baskets are dunks, he shoots a very high percentage with over a dozen looks a game.

4. Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers (56.3%, 12.4 FGA, 18.3 PPG): The Spaniard has solidified the centre position for the Lakers with Andrew Bynum out for an extended period of time. While Lamar Odom has picked up on the rebounding front, Gasol takes over more touches in the paint, which can only lead to more scoring opportunities. Kobe Bryant understands that Pau needs the ball, and he will let him get his touches.

5. Emeka Okafor, Charlotte Bobcats (57.6%, 9.7 FGA, 14 PPG): Okafor’s great percentage with nearly 10 attempts a game will certain help you in this category, and the fact that he’s a such a great rebounder and shot blocker as well is gravy.

6. Andris Biedrins, Golden State Warriors (56.8%, 9.4 FGA, 13 PPG): Biedrins is an interesting player because it seems like all his baskets are garbage follow dunks. His fantasy owners do not care how he scores, they just love his rebounding and high shooting percentage. You may be surprised to know that he gets almost 10 field goal attempts a game in a guard-oriented Warrior offense.

7. Yao Ming, Houston Rockets (54.5%, 13.1 FGA, 19.9 PPG): The 7′6″ Chinese icon is so good down low, which is evident by his nearly 55 per cent shooting on over 13 attempts a game.

8. Kendrick Perkins, Boston Celtics (59.8%, 5.7 FGA, 8.1 PPG): The Boston big man could get more looks in the upcoming weeks with Kevin Garnett sidelined. Perkins is a high percentage shooter, but does not get very many touches with all of the talent surrounding him. He is a marginal fantasy player, but he will help you in FG percentage in a pinch, while putting up nice rebounding and block totals.

9. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland Cavaliers (50.1%, 11.3 FGA, 13.7 PPG): Big Z is back from injury and doing his thing. He takes a lot of jump shots for a centre, but is deadly accurate.

10. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies (52%, 7.8 FGA, 10.9 PPG): Joining his brother on the top 10 list, baby bro Marc can hold his own down low. The Grizzlies are a young team on the rise and they have a very promising centre. As Gasol develops more on the offensive end, his field goal numbers are sure to only improve.

Low Shooting Percentage, Centres

1. Rasheed Wallace, Detriot Pistons (42.8%, 11.6 FGA, 12.9 PPG): I am not sure how many more years this former Tar Heel has left as a starter. It seems like he is a fading star with a deteriorating jumper. He does take a lot of threes, but his shooting hurts your FG percentage if you start him at centre. I would look to move him if at all possible.

2. Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors (42.4%, 11.5 FGA, 13.8 PPG): Even though Bargnani does not have the typical skill set of a centre, he is nearly seven feet tall. He is a rising star in the league and I am sure his field goal numbers will improve down the stretch, but overall, he’s been so inconsistent this season. The problem is that if you start Bargnani at centre, you are not only getting a low number from him, but you’re also missing out on the high number from most other centres who are instead starting for another fantasy team.

3. Spencer Hawes, Sacramento Kings (44.4%, 9.6 FGA, 10.2 PPG): With Brad Miller shipped to the Bulls, Hawes is the man in the middle for the Kings. He has had an up and down first half of the season, but should improve with time. Hawes has solid post moves that will start to work after repetition and game experience. Consider him a sleeper for nice production down the stretch with an improved field goal percentage.

Check in later in the week to see Part 1 of the second series of The Hidden Truth!

Welcome to the Part Two of the Hidden Truth: FG Percentage, where today we take a look at FG percentage at the forward position. Thanks to some “helpful” advice, these rankings, unlike those for the guards, incorporate field goals percentage while examining how many shots a game the player takes. Shown in each ranking is field goal percentage, field goals attempted per game, and their scoring average per game. This is relevant because a guy who shoots more will have a greater effect on your team percentage.

Remember, FG percentage is no more important than any other Roto category, but it is something to look at while drafting, trading, and picking up free agents.

1. David Lee, New York Knicks (56.4%, 11.7 FGA, 16.4 PPG): Lee plays within five feet of the basket with great success.

2. Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics (52.5%, 13.6 FGA, 16.4 PPG): KG, the heart and soul of the Celtics, is a consistent jump shooter, but can also throw it down in the paint.

3. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs (52.2%, 15.6 FGA, 20.8 PPG): The Big Fundamental is always solid in this category and it’s very nice to see him bounce back after a somewhat down season in 2007-08 in which he shot under 50 per cent.

4. Chris Bosh, Toronto Raptors (49.6%, 15.9 FGA, 22.8 PPG): Bosh is a great fantasy player who helps in many categories, but let’s hope his knee is okay after taking two weeks off.

5. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (49.1%, 20.3 FGA, 28.5 PPG): King James takes over 20 shots a game and he is shooting nearly 50 per cent, which is obviously great news for your Roto squad.

6. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers (48.9%, 15.1 FGA, 17.6 PPG): The former Longhorn standout is having a very nice year. He takes about 15 shots a game and makes them at a 49 per cent clip, providing a nice scoring option.

7. Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz (54.8%, 10.6 FGA, 14 PPG): Millsap has been an excellent stopgap for Carlos Boozer, but his production may be headed downhill with Boozer supposedly very close to returning.

8. Luis Scola, Houston Rockets (52.7%, 9.5 FGA, 12.4 PPG): Scola is never flashy, but he plays hard and gets the job done.

9. Grant Hill, Phoenix Suns (52.5%, 8.3 FGA, 11.1 PPG): If he were still drinking Sprite, maybe he would shoot the ball more. Hill gets limited minutes but shoots at a solid percentage; in fact, he’s on pace for a career best in this category.

10. Kenyon Martin, Denver Nuggets (50.6%, 10.6 FGA, 12.9 PPG): K-Mart has been shopping for easy buckets all year long.

11. Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks (48.6%, 12.6 FGA, 15.7 PPG): The athletic Hawk forward provides an explosive presence on the court. He is also not too bad on paper.

12. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks (47.4%, 20 FGA, 25.9 PPG): – For such a high volume jump shooter, his percentage is right where you want it.

13. Zach Randolph, Los Angeles Clippers (47.5%, 18.1 FGA, 22 PPG): Besides being a punkass, Randolph shoots well in the paint.

14. Boris Diaw, Charlotte Bobcats (49.4%, 10 FGA, 11.8 PPG): Diaw has a chance to establish his game in a new city, and so far, the results have been excellent.

15. Udonis Haslem, Miami Heat (51.4%, 8.8 FGA, 10.8 PPG): Not a go-to guy, but Haslem throws up nearly nine shots a game at over 50 per cent success rate.

16. Jason Thompson, Sacramento Kings (50%, 8.3 FGA, 10.4 PPG): The Kings rookie has been up and down all season, but has good numbers for a freshman.

17. Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers (49.2%, 8.1 FGA, 10.3 PPG): Odom has been getting way more looks with Andrew Bynum going down for an extended period.

18. Shawn Marion, Toronto Raptors (48.2%, 10.6 FGA, 12 PPG): It will be interesting to see how he fits in Toronto playing next to Bosh, but don’t be surprised to see his skill reemerge now that he’s out of Miami.

Top 10 Clankers

1. Ron Artest, Houston Rockets (38.8%, 13.9 FGA, 15.8 PPG): Overrated. Overrated. Overrated. Yeah, I said it.

2. Stephen Jackson, Golden State Warriors (40.5%, 16.7 FGA, 20.5 PPG): S-Jax scores a lot, but he also misses quite a bit.

3. Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando Magic (40.1%, 13.9 FGA, 17 PPG) – His name on this list was a surprise to me, as anytime I see the Magic play, he seems to hit a lot of shots.

4. Al HarringtonNew York Knicks (42.3%, 17.5 FGA, 20.2 PPG): Maybe if the shoes he wore were not sold exclusively at K-Mart, he would shoot better.

5. Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans Hornets (41.1%, 12.4 FGA, 14.4 PPG): Stojakovic is a long range specialist who shoots two-pointers at an only slightly higher percentage as he does three-pointers.

6. Richard Jefferson, Milwaukee Bucks (43.2%, 13.8 FGA, 17.7 PPG): It has got to suck to be stuck in Milwaukee, especially given that half the team is hurt.

7. Wilson Chandler, New York Knicks (42.6%, 12.4 FGA, 13.7 PPG) – I am surprised that Chandler has gotten the ball enough to shoot over 12 times a game. I guess in Mike D’Antoni’s system, everyone gets looks.

8. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers (43.5%, 19 FGA, 25.4 PPG): It is a shame he has bad knees, because Granger could be a special player. He may force it at times, but his team needs him to shoot the rock.

9. Andres Nocioni, Chicago Bulls (41.4%, 8.5 FGA, 10.4 PPG): This year has been a struggle for the native of Argentina.

10. Matt Barnes, Phoenix Suns (40.9%, 8.3 FGA, 9.3 PPG): Barnes was on plenty of sleeper lists heading into this season, but despite seeing more minutes than usual, his fantasy relevance has almost completely vanished, in no small part because his shooting continues to suffer.

On Friday, we will take a look at the big dudes and see how they stack up.

Welcome to the first edition of The Hidden Truth, a new NBA fantasy column in which I will be focusing on exposing the stats and players that win fantasy leagues. For instance, everyone knows Allen Iverson can hoop, but what are the consequences of starting him in your fantasy league? Does he shoot a high percentage? For those Roto-lovers out there, all categories are equal. First place in steals is the same as first place in points. So let’s dive in!

The first edition of this column will focus on field goal percentage. It is evident that if you take more shots farther from the rim, your shooting percentage is usually lower, so you have to take these rankings with a grain of salt. Just because Chauncey Billups shoots a low percentage does not make him a worse fantasy player than Ronnie Brewer, who is in the top 10 in FG percentage. To build a championship fantasy hoops squad, you must be balanced, but it does help to have guys with high field goal percentages at all positions.

Today we will look at the guards.

Top 10 High Percentage Finishers

1. Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics (50.3%): The Celtic point guard is a solid fantasy player as he puts up decent points, assists, rebounds, and steals, but he shines in the field goal percentage category. This is a product of taking good shots in a good system, but man has he ever come a long way from his rookie season when his shooting was considered a major weakness.

2. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets (49.6%): Mr. Do-it-all also does not miss too often.

3. Ronnie Brewer, Utah Jazz (49.5%): Jerry Sloan likes this slasher because he gets good shots. People may see him as a role player, but he is averaging over 13 PPG this season.

4. Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors (49.4%): Calderon does it a little differently — even though he is more of an outside shooter than Rondo or Tony Parker, he will help you in FG percentage just as much.

5. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs (49.4%): The Frenchman has perfected his 15-to-18 foot jumper from dead-on. This compliments his drives to the basket which create high percentage layups.

6. Ray Allen, Boston Celtics (49.1%): For a guy who chucks up threes at an alarming rate, it is a surprise that Ray-Ray clocks in at sixth on the list. I think people discount all of the layups he gets on baseline drives after doing a pump fake.

7. Andre Miller, Philadelphia 76ers (47.9%): The steady point guard always finds a way to take good shots.

8. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat (47.8%): Flash is back and he is doing his thing.

9. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (47.5%): Kobe makes more difficult shots than anyone in the league.

10. Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers (47.4%): Roy has a nice jumper, but he also can finish near the rim, as we saw on his dramatic game-winning bucket against the Knicks recently.

Honourable mention: Derrick Rose (47.3%), Leandro Barbosa (47.2%), Mike Miller (47.2%), Deron Williams (47.2%), Steve Nash (46.8%), Mo Williams (46.8%)

Note: Jameer Nelson was shooting over 50 per cent from the field, but he is now out for the season, so he was not included on this list.

Top 10 Clankers

1. Baron Davis, Los Angeles Clippers (35.2%): Too many bad shots coupled with injury problems has left B-Diddy as a bust this season.

2. Tracy McGrady (38.8%), Houston Rockets: T-Mac loves to shoot and can be very streaky. Now, he’s on the shelf.

3. Raymond Felton, Charlotte Bobcats (39.4%): Will learn to take better shots.

4. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (40.7%): The former UCLA guard will get better with time as he works off Durant.

5. Randy Foye, Minnesota Timberwolves (40.9%): Nobody in American has seen all of the misses. Have the Timberwolves ever played on national TV?

6. Chauncey Billups, Denver Nuggets (41.6%): Mr. Big Shot is also Mr. Big Miss, but in fairness, he shoots a lot of three balls, and that hurts his percentage.

7. Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks (41.6%): His jumper is as ugly as his kid.

8. Jamal Crawford, Golden State Warriors (41.7%): This baller could drop 30 points or shoot under 30 per cent on any given night.

9. Kevin Martin, Sacramento Kings (41.9%): He forces it a lot, but then again the Kings do suck, so who else is going to chuck it up?

10. Allen Iverson, Detroit Pistons (42.1%): AI has always been a “volume” shooter…everywhere he goes.

Dishonourable mention: Mike Conley (42.4%), Chris Duhon (42.4%), Derek Fisher (42.4%), Mario Chalmers (42.6%), Roger Mason (42.7%), Joe Johnson (43.3%), Nate Robinson (43.8%), Vince Carter (43.9%).

As mentioned before, this list does not determine a player’s overall worth. It is just one factor you should consider when building your fantasy lineup. Also, bear in mind that I tried to focus on fantasy relevant players. I am not going to argue if you say Daniel “Booby” Gibson should be on the list because his percentage is lower than Billups. However, in my mind, anyone named Booby should be a fantasy free agent.

Next: On Wednesday, we’ll take a look at the top-shooting and worst-shooting Forwards.