Welcome to the first edition of The Hidden Truth, a new NBA fantasy column in which I will be focusing on exposing the stats and players that win fantasy leagues. For instance, everyone knows Allen Iverson can hoop, but what are the consequences of starting him in your fantasy league? Does he shoot a high percentage? For those Roto-lovers out there, all categories are equal. First place in steals is the same as first place in points. So let’s dive in!

The first edition of this column will focus on field goal percentage. It is evident that if you take more shots farther from the rim, your shooting percentage is usually lower, so you have to take these rankings with a grain of salt. Just because Chauncey Billups shoots a low percentage does not make him a worse fantasy player than Ronnie Brewer, who is in the top 10 in FG percentage. To build a championship fantasy hoops squad, you must be balanced, but it does help to have guys with high field goal percentages at all positions.

Today we will look at the guards.

Top 10 High Percentage Finishers

1. Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics (50.3%): The Celtic point guard is a solid fantasy player as he puts up decent points, assists, rebounds, and steals, but he shines in the field goal percentage category. This is a product of taking good shots in a good system, but man has he ever come a long way from his rookie season when his shooting was considered a major weakness.

2. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets (49.6%): Mr. Do-it-all also does not miss too often.

3. Ronnie Brewer, Utah Jazz (49.5%): Jerry Sloan likes this slasher because he gets good shots. People may see him as a role player, but he is averaging over 13 PPG this season.

4. Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors (49.4%): Calderon does it a little differently — even though he is more of an outside shooter than Rondo or Tony Parker, he will help you in FG percentage just as much.

5. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs (49.4%): The Frenchman has perfected his 15-to-18 foot jumper from dead-on. This compliments his drives to the basket which create high percentage layups.

6. Ray Allen, Boston Celtics (49.1%): For a guy who chucks up threes at an alarming rate, it is a surprise that Ray-Ray clocks in at sixth on the list. I think people discount all of the layups he gets on baseline drives after doing a pump fake.

7. Andre Miller, Philadelphia 76ers (47.9%): The steady point guard always finds a way to take good shots.

8. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat (47.8%): Flash is back and he is doing his thing.

9. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (47.5%): Kobe makes more difficult shots than anyone in the league.

10. Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers (47.4%): Roy has a nice jumper, but he also can finish near the rim, as we saw on his dramatic game-winning bucket against the Knicks recently.

Honourable mention: Derrick Rose (47.3%), Leandro Barbosa (47.2%), Mike Miller (47.2%), Deron Williams (47.2%), Steve Nash (46.8%), Mo Williams (46.8%)

Note: Jameer Nelson was shooting over 50 per cent from the field, but he is now out for the season, so he was not included on this list.

Top 10 Clankers

1. Baron Davis, Los Angeles Clippers (35.2%): Too many bad shots coupled with injury problems has left B-Diddy as a bust this season.

2. Tracy McGrady (38.8%), Houston Rockets: T-Mac loves to shoot and can be very streaky. Now, he’s on the shelf.

3. Raymond Felton, Charlotte Bobcats (39.4%): Will learn to take better shots.

4. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (40.7%): The former UCLA guard will get better with time as he works off Durant.

5. Randy Foye, Minnesota Timberwolves (40.9%): Nobody in American has seen all of the misses. Have the Timberwolves ever played on national TV?

6. Chauncey Billups, Denver Nuggets (41.6%): Mr. Big Shot is also Mr. Big Miss, but in fairness, he shoots a lot of three balls, and that hurts his percentage.

7. Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks (41.6%): His jumper is as ugly as his kid.

8. Jamal Crawford, Golden State Warriors (41.7%): This baller could drop 30 points or shoot under 30 per cent on any given night.

9. Kevin Martin, Sacramento Kings (41.9%): He forces it a lot, but then again the Kings do suck, so who else is going to chuck it up?

10. Allen Iverson, Detroit Pistons (42.1%): AI has always been a “volume” shooter…everywhere he goes.

Dishonourable mention: Mike Conley (42.4%), Chris Duhon (42.4%), Derek Fisher (42.4%), Mario Chalmers (42.6%), Roger Mason (42.7%), Joe Johnson (43.3%), Nate Robinson (43.8%), Vince Carter (43.9%).

As mentioned before, this list does not determine a player’s overall worth. It is just one factor you should consider when building your fantasy lineup. Also, bear in mind that I tried to focus on fantasy relevant players. I am not going to argue if you say Daniel “Booby” Gibson should be on the list because his percentage is lower than Billups. However, in my mind, anyone named Booby should be a fantasy free agent.

Next: On Wednesday, we’ll take a look at the top-shooting and worst-shooting Forwards.

Editor’s Note: Did you miss the boat on joining an NBA fantasy league this fall? No problem-o. Over at Draftbug.com you can hop in whenever you like and play in a fantasy league that features a shorter season. Try daily or weekly leagues. That sure takes the sting out watching your team suck all season after a crappy draft. Go check out Draftbug.com and tell them RotoRob sent you (we get free Popsicles for every one who signs up!).

BY ALEX ZELVIN, Draftbug.com

I realize that most of you are primarily interested in fantasy baseball, but since it’s basketball season, I thought I’d share some fantasy hoops strategy to help you win at Draftbug and other daily fantasy basketball contests (such as Snapdraft). My approach to this (and it’s worth mentioning that I haven’t had time to try this out yet) is fairly similar to the approach I used to win the 2008 Rotohog Baseball contest. I’d recommend doing the following in MS-Excel:

1. Calculate player statistics in all scoring categories per minute played. This gives you an idea how good the player is when they’re actually in the game.

2. Estimate expected minutes played for all players. Assuming that you don’t follow basketball closely, I’d probably use something like the average of the last five or 10 games. You’re going to miss out on players filling in for very short periods when someone is injured (and those probably are the best values), but at least you’ll also avoid giving a high ranking to most players who were filling in and will be pushed to the bench by returning players. Giving someone who won’t play a top rating is a much worse mistake to make here than underrating someone who will play more than expected. For instance, don’t put too much stock into the fact that Daniel Gibson played 32 minutes Tuesday night in the Cavs’ win over the Raptors. First of all, it was a blowout win. Secondly, with Sasha Pavlovic sidelined with the flu, Boobie got extra run. That won’t happen consistently, so don’t let it fool you into overinflating his value.

3. Make an adjustment to play statistics based on whether the player is home or away. I would add 2 per cent for home players and subtract 2 per cent for players on the road. That may be slightly under adjusting, but in general I’d rather do this than overshoot with my adjustments.

4. Make an adjustment for opponent. You can get fancy with this and try to use statistics for how opponents affect specific statistics or players at specific positions’ stats, but for starters just calculate the impact specific teams have on opponents’ scoring, and adjust projections by that amount. So if a given team allows 95 points per game vs. a league average of 100 points per game, then adjust their opponents’ projections in all categories down the difference (in this case, 5 per cent, so your calculation will be projections x 0.95).

5. Calculate a points projection using Draftbug’s scoring system based on the statistical projection you’ve done.

6. Select a team that balances solid undervalued players based on your points projection with top rated players (who may or may not be underpriced).

You can refine this strategy to be more precise, but I’m fairly certain that it will be a winning one, even in the relatively crude form described above.