Welcome back to the 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit. Over the next few weeks, we will be rolling out cheat sheets with analysis, essays and the classic Top 10 Lists that Fantasy Owners Always Wanted But Were Afraid to Ask For, a compendium of 10 Top 10 lists that no fantasy owner should be without. We’ll continue that today with Alex’s offering of the Top 10 source of Cheap Steals.

This is all these players do – steal bases. They can’t hit for an extremely high average, have no power, but they will steal bases. Who are they?

We know the Chone Figgins, Willy Taveras and Denard Span types will rack up the steals, but none of them will come cheap. So, we’re going to focus on players who will likely be late-round bargains who can help you win this category.

1. Michael Bourn, OF, Houston Astros – Projected 40-50 steals. If Bourn is to keep his starting gig in Astro-Land, he needs to improve upon his .230 batting average last year. When he does reach first base, he instantly becomes a weapon on the base path. Look for him to improve slightly and get more chances to steal. Last year he stole 42 bases, but expect him to approach 50 this year. If he struggles at the plate for an extended timeframe to open the season, I would not be surprised to see Houston look for other options. Personally, I would rather have Jason Bourne, but that is neither here nor there…

2. Carlos Gomez, OF, Minnesota Twins – Projected 30-35 steals. Gomez finds himself in the same category as Bourn. Improve or lose you job. Gomez is quite the base stealer and could some day easily steal 60, but he has trouble getting on base to do so. Last season, his on base percentage was .289, which is awful. I am sure coaches are working tirelessly on this project to find ways to get him on base. Last year he was sort of a pop out machine, so he did not even get to utilize his speed to leg out base hits. I still think Gomez is a lock for 30 steals, as he has too much talent and there is too much potential to see this guy on the Twinkies bench.

3. Jerry Owens, OF, Chicago White Sox – Projected 20-30 steals. Owens received some playing time last year with the injury of Carlos Quentin. Now, he finds himself battling for the centrefield job with DeWayne Wise. If Owens wins it he could approach 30 steals this year, but he does not do much more than steal. He won’t go yard, and he won’t drive in runs, so be careful with this one trick fantasy pony.

4. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers – Projected 25-35 steals. After Texas moved Michael Young to third base, the starting job at short belongs to the organization’s prized prospect. Andrus had over 50 steals last year at Triple-A, even after missing nearly a month with a broken hand. Elvis has some pop in his bat, but during his rookie campaign, he can only be relied upon for steals and runs. Eventually he could become a 15-20 home run guy, but we will have to see how he adjusts.

5. Coco Crisp, OF, Kansas City Royals – 20-30 steals. Crisp will get a chance to play every day in Kansas City and he is sure to improve on his part-time numbers from last year. He is a veteran who knows how to get on base and move himself to second base. He may be a sleeper this year as he gets more at bats and more chances to shine. Crisp has never been a huge steal guy, but has consistently been in the 20s.

6. Nyger Morgan, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates – Projected 20-35 steals. The Pirates are banking on Morgan to be their opening day lead-off hitter and premier base stealer. He has been inconsistent with the big league chances he has received, but there is no denying his raw speed that could be harnessed to produce big thievery numbers.

7. Juan Pierre, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers – Projected 15-25 steals. The signing of Manny Ramirez crushes the fantasy potential of Pierre this year, unless he gets traded. Without Manny, Pierre projects to steal over 40, but with him only around 20. Pierre is the last man out in a crowded Dodger outfield and there is no way anyone in their right mind would sit Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, or Man-Ram in favour of Pierre in their everyday lineup. Pierre could still be an effective source of steals if you could start him only when you know he will play. Just add another person to the growing list of Manny Ramirez haters.

8. Felipe Lopez, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks – Projected 20 steals. Last season was a bit of a write-off for Lopez, as he failed to even reach double digits in steals. But consider two numbers: (a) 44, as in the number of bases he stole just two seasons ago; and (b) .360, as in his batting average after the break last season. Combine these two and you’ve got a major comeback on your hands, one you can invest in cheaply.

9. Julio Lugo, SS, Boston Red Sox – Projected 20 steals. After missing a huge chunk of 2008 thanks to a quad injury, Lugo has to compete to regain his starting shortstop job. So far, he looks like he’s up to the task, and if he can wrestle the gig back from Jed Lowrie, that projected steal total will look very conservative.

10. Randy Winn, OF, San Francisco Giants – Projected 20 steals. Okay, so he’s not exactly tearing the cover off the ball this spring, but that’s all the more reason he will once again fly slightly below the radar on draft day. But when you look up at season’s end and see another quality line from Winn, you’ll wonder why you constantly ignore him on draft day.

Spring Training is officially underway, and all is right with the world again. That means it’s time for us to step up our baseball coverage, starting with the completion of our free agent report. Miss a section? Here you go:

American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X.

National League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII and IX.

Philadelphia Phillies

The defending World Champions had great balance in 2008, with a powerful lineup, a great bullpen and a fine rotation. This is a team that’s been on the rise for a couple of years now, but can they defend? Well, with a mere four free agents to deal with this offseason, they were more or less guaranteed to return virtually intact.

Pat Burrell, OF: This consistent slugger won’t help you in batting average, and his strike zone judgment slipped after a career best showing in 2007, probably explaining his slight reduction in numbers. Still, Pat the Bat draws a ton of walks, topping the century mark in each of the past two seasons. Philly opted not to bring him back, signing Raul Ibanez instead. Burrell, meanwhile, switched leagues and has gone to the team Philly took out in the Series – Tampa Bay. How ironic will it be if these two teams meet in the Series again and Burrell proves to be the difference?

Tom Gordon, RHP: Flash has been in decline for four years now, and last season ended early thanks to elbow surgery that will likely translate into a late start this year. The Phils let him walk, and Arizona swooped in, becoming the eighth team to stitch Gordon’s name on its uniform. We shouldn’t expect much – hell, the dude’s old enough that his son was drafted last year, but Arizona’s late inning situation is a land full of possibilities given the amount of question marks. So don’t be shocked if Gordon actually emerges with some value. Or not.

Jamie Moyer, LHP: If Gordon is old, what does that make Moyer? Yet, unlike Gordon, who has been sliding for a few years, Moyer is coming off his finest season as a Phillie, making me wonder just when the hell this dude will slow down. Obviously the Phillies don’t think it will be anytime soon, re-signing him for two years. The lefty with the timeless changeup really cut down on the long balls allowed last season, and that made a huge difference.

Rudy Seanez, LHP: Another aging arm, Seanez was cut from the Dodgers during the pre-season and wound up having a pretty good season with the Phils. He walked too many, struck out too few, got hurt, yet enjoyed decent bottle line results. Seanez always seems like such a long shot to make whatever team he’s battling for a job with, but it wouldn’t shock me if he lands yet another gig somewhere. However, to date, he’s not getting any bites this offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Sixteen straight losing seasons and counting; an offense that was middling at best (and that’s being extremely generous) and a pitching staff that was horrendous. This team has its work cut out for itself. Again. Something positive: The Buccos had just four free agents to deal with, yet they let every single one leave, but that could be addition by subtraction as each of them were aging veterans. So if nothing else, the Pirates should be younger in 2009.

Chris Gomez, 3B: Although he enjoyed a fine start to the season, his chances – and play – deteriorated badly in the second half when he barely hit .200. His extra-base pop was almost non-existent, leaving him as a very unproductive utility player. Signed by the O’s, Gomez will try to win a job in B-More, but with Ty Wigginton there, it’s going to be tough.

Jason Michaels, OF: Another veteran bench player the Pirates let walk, Michaels started the season with the Indians, but was so bad, they had to DFA him. Dealt to the Pirates, he was better, but that’s not saying much. He simply doesn’t get on base often enough to be useful, strikes out too often, and his power is slipping. Now with Houston, he’ll add bench strength to the Astros, but won’t be of any use for fantasy purposes unless half the team eats some bad crawfish.

Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B: Yet another veteran backup Pittsburgh allowed to leave, Mientkiewicz saw plenty of action with the Pirates last year, but as we discussed last season, with no power to speak of, he’s not roster-worthy. The Dodgers have given him a shot as a non-roster player, but the best case scenario is he beats out Hector Luna and Luis Maza for a back-up corner infielder gig.

Luis Rivas, SS: What’s this? Another backup the Pirates parted ways with? Are you sensing a trend? Rivas was awful in the first half, earning the non-fantasy factor stamp from us, but shockingly, he was even worse in the second half, recording a 454 OPS after the break. Somehow, the Cubs were interested enough to sign Rivas to a minor league deal, where he’ll compete for the second utility infielder job, something I expect will stead him with zero fantasy value yet again.

Next: We’ll hop aboard the Main Line and head to St. Louis to check in on the Cardinals.

Happy Valentine’s Day to all our readers. Today’s a good day to take a break from your sports viewing and take your wife/significant other out for dinner. Maybe you’ll even get porked tonight if you’re good!

Anyways, we’ve been concentrating on basketball and hockey lately, but with February well entrenched and Spring Training workouts already underway, it’s time to switch gears and get back to our Free Agency Report. Previous parts – American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X.

National League Part I, II, III, IV, V and VI.

Houston Astros

After bottoming out in 2007 with 72 wins, the Houston Astros rode a huge second half to 86 wins last season, their 15th winning campaign in the last 17 years. This was a truly amazing feat, given that the team was 47-56 on July 26. But a huge finish — a 39-19 mark from that point on, despite a crushing five-game losing skid in mid-September – allowed Houston to claw its way back into the wild card race.

It’s conceivable with some fine-tuning to the rotation, this team could take a run at the NL Wild Card and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2005.

But first the Astros have some issues to sort out, not the least of which is what in the hell is going to happen to Miguel Tejada after he admitted lying to congress in connection with his testimony in 2005 about the use of performance-enhancing drugs, an area we covered extensively in our series on The Mitchell Report. He could face up to a year in jail, but most expect a much lighter sentence, likely just probation. So as we write, you can expect Tejada to be manning shortstop for the Astros on Opening Day.

The Astros did very little this offseason to improve the offense, despite talk that they were thinking of making a run at Adam Dunn. Led by Jose Valverde, the bullpen is solid, but as discussed, the rotation needs work.

Houston did add Mike Hampton to the rotation, but is it realistic to expect him to log more than 20 starts? Swingman Chris Sampson made 11 starts last year, and will be considered for a rotation spot, but is clearly better suited to be a reliever. The Astros could really use one more solid starter to add to this mix.

And given that they had five free agents to deal with this offseason, Houston had its work cut out for itself as it attempted to build on last season’s rebound. Fortunately, it re-signed the two key members of its bullpen who were free agents, allowing the rest of this class to head west.

Brad Ausmus, C: Never much of an offensive talent, Ausmus was reduced to a role player for Houston in 2008, losing whatever slim fantasy value he had. He used to at least see plenty of PT, not that this made him attractive, but a career worst 15 runs? Yikes. Ausmus has finally left the Astros, signing with the Dodgers, and leaving his main competitors last season – Humberto Quintero and J.R. Towles to battle for the starting gig.

Doug Brocail, RHP: Brocail’s command was superb last year, so despite bottom line results that weren’t quite in line with what he achieved with the Padres in 2007 – a fact that didn’t surprise us — he remains a top set-up man. Houston obviously recognized this when it re-signed him for another year plus an option for 2010, bringing back a key component of a solid bullpen that again looks like it will be a team strength.

LaTroy Hawkins, RHP: We already documented how poorly Hawkins pitched with the Yankees, but everything changed when he was dealt to the Astros. His command suddenly did a 180, and he settled in as one of the top set-up men on the ‘Stros. Small wonder they wasted little time in re-signing him this offseason, so he’ll reprise his role in the pen behind Valverde and Brocail.

Mark Loretta, 2B: Loretta showed solid gap power as a key member of the Astro bench last season, and drew the attention of a few teams before earning himself a similar role on the Dodgers this year. Combined with Ausmus, that’s two key role players the Dodgers pilfered from the Astros. Throw in Randy Wolf (below) and you’ve got yourself the Los Angeles Astros.

Randy Wolf, LHP: As we expected, Wolf didn’t survive the trade deadline last year, coming over from San Diego to Houston, and his solid late-season work helped spur the Astro second-half run. Finally healthy, Wolf would have been a good arm to bring back, but Houston was unable to outbid the Dodgers, losing yet another of their free agents to LA. This one may hurt, especially since Houston also lost out in its attempts to lure Braden Looper to town.

Next: We’ll head west and check in on the Los Angeles Astros, er, Dodgers.

We’ve been remiss on keeping up to pace with our baseball off-season coverage, focusing lately on basketball, hockey, and, of course, the NFL playoffs. But don’t worry, we’re already planning the 2009 RotoRob Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit, so before you know it, baseball coverage will be coming down the pike en masse.

For now, catch up on our Free Agency Report: American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X. National League Part I, II, III, IV and V.

Florida Marlins

Led by an improved pitching staff – especially the bullpen – the Florida Marlins put the brakes on a two-year losing skid, winning 84 games in 2008 to finish a mere 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race.

There are plenty of questions that need addressing here, but the Marlins have yet again put together a roster of talented youngsters that appears to be on the cusp of greatness.

While the team doesn’t have many free agents to deal with, arbitration will be an issue for the cash-strapped Marlins, who ranked dead last in payroll in 2008. I mean, Wes Freaking Helms was their top paid player at $2.4 million last season.

Jorge Cantu and Jeremy Hermida have already signed and avoided arbitration. But Alfredo Amezaga, Ricky Nolasco, Cody Ross and Dan Uggla are still eligible. And given that behind Hanley Ramirez, Uggla was the team’s top power hitter (which was a real strength in Florida last season as the club ranked fourth in the NL in slugging), he won’t come cheap.

As mentioned, the bullpen helped revitalize a pitching staff that was dead last in the NL in 2007, but it had to work hard – the rotation only managed 74 quality starts – just 12th in the NL. Missing Anibal Sanchez for most of the season definitely hurt in this regard, but the Marlins are committed to keeping him healthy in 2009, and to wit, have prohibited him from participating in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. But not to worry, with H-Ram, Matt Lindstrom, Amezaga, Cantu, Renyel Pinto and Rick VandenHurk all expected to participate for their respective nations in the WBC, Florida is sure to be well represented.

With Matt Treanor now in Detroit and Paul Lo Duca not being offered arbitration and probably out of the team’s price range anyways, the Marlins desperately could use a veteran catcher. But there’s really not much out there that fits their minuscule budget, so this could be a serious issue with John Baker and his whopping 61 career games heading the depth chart at present.

Not surprisingly, the Marlins haven’t exactly been making waves in the free agent market, although they did sign steroid boy Jay Gibbons to a minor league deal. Gibbons, who last played in the majors in 2007, was in Indy ball last year. Yikes. Oh, Florida also gambled on reliever Scott Proctor, who once upon a time had a live arm before he hurt it. Still, he could prove to be quite useful and may help solidify an improving bullpen.

In reality, this club’s improvement will virtually be completely organic as it matures. I expect Florida to make a serious run at the Wild Card and its first playoff appearance since 2003.

Of the team’s four free agents, two have already signed elsewhere.

Luis Gonzalez, OF: When Gonzo signed with the Marlins last season, we weren’t impressed, and I think we nailed that one right on the head. His batting eye continues to slide and he scored all of 30 runs in 136 games. Uh, ya. Could this be the end of the line for the 18-year-vet? Oh, come on! He’s just eight years removed from a 57-homer season. But wait….Gonzalez has hit five more dingers than that in the last four years combined. No problem!

Mark Hendrickson, LHP: Once upon a time, we recommended him, but in 2008 Hendrickson had an awful season as a swingman with an unacceptably low K rate. And now he’s an Oriole, for one year and $1.5 million. Remind me again why B-More has been crap for so long?

Paul Lo Duca, C: Lo Duca, a Mitchell Report poster boy, was rancid enough with the Nats to get released, winding up signing a minor league deal with Florida. He was brought up to the majors and actually hit well and did a fantastic job of getting on base in a very limited role. The Marlins failed to offer him arbitration, and now he’s stuck trying to find a job in a market that is loaded with veteran catchers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lo Duca doesn’t find a gig until well after Spring Training has started.

Arthur Rhodes, LHP: After a fantastic season split between Seattle and Florida, Rhodes landed in Cincy for two years and $4 million, a deal we already discussed earlier this month.

Next: We’ll take a little swim across the Gulf of Mexico and check in on Houston. Just 10 teams to go!

I got a chance to see the Tigers in person a couple of weeks ago when they came to town and cooled off a hot Jays’ squad. Looking at the Tiger lineup, I was hardly struck with fear, and much has been written of the struggles of closer Todd Jones this year. Yet, somehow, the club ranks second in the league in homers and sixth in runs scored (despite playing half of its games in cavernous Comerica, still a pitcher’s park regardless of the smaller dimensions the last two years) . But what’s really driving the Tigers this season is a pitching staff that’s composite ERA is two-thirds of a run lower than any other American League team. Pitching wins games, baby.

Nate Robertson is showing a remarkable bend, but don’t break quality this year. Looking at his peripherals he simply shouldn’t be doing this well, but he is. Outpitching Roger Clemens is no small feat. Rookie Justin Verlander has 10 quality starts in 16 tries and he reached double digits in wins earlier today. He’s the first rookie to reach the mark before the break in four seasons. Impressive. Veteran Kenny Rogers continues to defy Father Time and looks like a good gamble by the Tigers. And Jeremy Bonderman is enjoying that breakout season we’ve all been waiting for, but it’s almost flown under the radar with the rest of the Detroit staff rolling as it is.

Despite his struggles, Jones is fourth in the AL in saves. But if he finally implodes completely, the Tigs are set. Joel Zumaya, with his 100 mph heat, looks untouchable at times. Rounding out Detroit’s late-relief corps, Fernando Rodney and Jamie Walker have been equally dominant.

Jim Leyland may have been out of a managing gig for seven years before taking the Tiger helm, but there’s been absolutely no rust. This season is possibly his greatest accomplishment yet.

The bottom line is, if you’re waiting for Detroit to fold like a cheap card table, you may be waiting for quite some time. A 16-2 run? Uh, yeah. It’s time to start believing that this team is for real, and come October, the loser of the Yankees-Red Sox race in the AL East may be seriously out of luck, as it’s looking more and more like the Wild Card is coming out of the Central division this year.