Well folks, now that 2009 is well underway, is there a better way to commence the New Year than getting that first league draft of 2009 under my belt? I’m not talking mock draft, but the real deal. Thanks to Mike Kuchera at TheFantasyMan.com for inviting Team RotoRob to partake in the 2009 version of The Battle of the Fantasy Gods. A fine cast has been assembled, including:

Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Troy Patterson – Fantasy Pros 911
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Brian Fitzsimmons – Sports Buff
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Brad Stewart – MLB Front Office
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Geoff Stein – Mock Draft Central
Mojo Moshovetis – Crucial Sports
Knox Bardeen – Crooked Pitch

Strategy

This league has a couple of nuances that caused me to do some serious pondering. There are no restrictions on innings pitched, no bench, and we’re doing weekly transactions. Other than that, it is your standard 5X5 rotisserie format with the customary 23 roster slots. Taking the format and rules of play into consideration was going to be a prime focus when looking at assembling a team in this year’s league. If one is going to play the game, understanding the rules is paramount when developing a solid and successful strategy.

This league is getting off to a very early start, and this definitely played into the development of my strategy. I wanted to attempt to acquire five-category players early (who doesn’t want that?), grab myself at least one, possibly two solid closers, two high risk save gambles, and build on two solid starting pitchers. In a daily transactions league I’d probably look at trying to fill my third and fourth relief pitchers from the waiver wire, but with 11 shrewd competitors all playing the waiver wire weekly, I don’t want to be chasing saves under those circumstances. The odds just get a tad long when bidding against the entire league for one category. With no bench to work from I also liked the idea of building into my team a potential strength for future trading purposes. Those were the primary reasons behind the five-four split on starting versus relief pitching. I feel reasonably confident in my abilities to procure starting pitching off the waiver wire if I want to attempt to boost my strikeouts and wins down the road.

I spent a fair bit of time mulling over my first pick (fifth overall) options, and came to the conclusion that I was going to focus on stolen bases with that selection. I was hoping Jose Reyes would fall to me and if he didn’t, I was flipping a coin between the two suspects I felt might be there as alternative options — Grady Sizemore or David Wright. Conventional wisdom would suggest I take Wright, but who says I’ve ever been conventional? With that in mind, let’s see how our starting point for the 2009 season shapes up.

Round One – Sizemore, OF: So we’re going to take the unconventional route in 2009. The stolen base potential was just too enticing and I decided Sizemore was my man with the fifth overall pick. It is pretty hard to argue with the 33 homers, 90 RBI, 101 runs scored and 38 thefts in 2008. Is the best yet to come for the 26-year-old outfielder? It would certainly stand to reason considering he’s just about to enter his prime power years.

Round Two – Justin Morneau, 1B: I wanted a solid corner this year and the runner-up in the 2008 AL MVP vote is a solid bet. I’ll take 25 homers, 125 RBI, and a .290 BA out of first base for 2009. Besides, what would a RotoRob entry be without some serious Canadian content?

Round Three – Matt Kemp, OF: It might be a bit early, but in a league of this calibre one either reaches a tad or watches them disappear off the board. The potential for a 25-homer, 35-stolen base season from Kemp is just too high for me to see him on someone else’s team.

Round Four – Alex Rios, OF: As much as I’ve crapped on Rios in the past, the lure of those stolen bases combined with the modest power potential made it so I just couldn’t lay off. The potential for Rios to repeat 20+ stolen bases, improve his power, and hopefully have a healthy Vernon Wells to provide some protection in the Jay line-up, should lead to a solid campaign in 2009.

Round Five – Brian McCann, C: I wanted a solid catcher and McCann has the potential to be the best in the business. I’ll be more than happy with a repeat of that fine 2008 season.

Round Six – Joey Votto, 1B: The potential upside from Votto in 2009 is huge. I’m hoping that he can build on that strong finish in 2008, and move into the top tier at first base this year. Is a 30-homer, 100-RBI, 15-SB season too optimistic a projection for this young Canuck?

Round Seven – Brad Lidge, RP: Well, that takes care of the stud closer situation. Normally I’d stay away from this strategy, but as I’ve mentioned earlier, with a draft this early, and the level of competition, I don’t want to be focusing on getting lucky on the waiver wire. Everything is going according to plan.

Round Eight – Joakim Soria, RP: I might as well make it two closers early and shore up my saves. Soria had a truly outstanding 2008 campaign, posting a 1.60 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and finishing second in the AL to only Francisco Rodriguez with 42 saves. The bullpen is in very good shape.

Round Nine – Johnny Damon, OF: Okay, he’s getting up there a bit in age, but batting at the top of the order for the Yankees, he has to find a way to score 100 runs. Toss in 15 homers and 20+ stolen bases and he’s a perfect fit for my team strategy.

Round 10 – Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP: I’m still a believer that the best is yet to come for Dice-K, and 2009 is going to be the year that his walks will drop and the strikeouts will rise. Of course, I do have a bit of a bias, being that he was one of my NPB scouting projects. A.J. Burnett and Jon Lester went just before my pick, and Edinson Volquez, Ben Sheets, Ricky Nolasco, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Dempster all went before my next kick at the can, so I think I jumped in at the right time.

Round 11 – Matt Cain, SP: At some point in time, the skill sets demonstrated by the 24-year-old Cain have to translate into some wins, don’t they?

Round 12 – James Loney, 1B: I was looking for another power bat heading into this round and the guy I had my sights on, Xavier Nady of the Yankees, was taken with the pick immediately before mine. Brad Hawpe went two picks before Nady. My outfield was solid, so why not grab another first base type and shorten the position a tad? As I mentioned several times this offseason, I see first base as a tougher position to fill in 2009 than it has been for a very long time.

Round 13 – Adam Jones, OF: Prospect alert! I’ve been targeting Jones in most of my early mocks so why not in the real deal? If in fact we don’t see the progression in his skill sets that I’m anticipating, the options are fairly deep in the outfield for 2009. Apparently Jones has done some beefing up in the offseason, so let’s hope it helps in the power department and doesn’t diminish that stolen base potential.

Round 14 – Jose Lopez, 2B: Was last year an overachievment or the commencement of bigger and better things? The 25-year-old middle-infielder has 20-homer, 85-RBI potential and with my speed already in good shape, he fits my team plan perfectly.

Round 15 – Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B: Now, here’s a guy that is getting very little respect. PETCO Park is far from being a hitter’s paradise, but the proven 20-80 power out of Kouz is just too tough to pass on at this stage of the draft.

Round 16 – Orlando Cabrera, SS: He is still waiting to find a home for this year, but the speed and runs scored potential out of O-Cab makes him a decent option. Cabrera was also the last shortstop on the board with at least some potential, making this decision a very easy one. When I decided to go with a heavy outfield/first base mix for this team it had to be at a cost, and my middle-infield would be that cost.

Round 17 – Scott Baker, SP: The Twins just keep cranking out those young arms, and Baker is poised for what could be a breakout campaign. He’s young, throws strikes and in Round 17, this has the potential to be a steal. The 27-year-old finished last season with seven quality starts in his last eight appearances, a 3.45 ERA (eighth best in the AL), 141 strikeouts and 11 wins. That is more than enough to get my attention.

Round 18 – Jorge Posada, C: I’m hoping for at least a bit better upside out of Posada than some of the last round gambles at catcher. A 15-homer, 60-RBI season out of Posada as my second catcher will suffice.

Round 19 – Trevor Hoffman, RP: I’m not a huge fan of Hoffman heading into this season, but I simply couldn’t ignore the save potential this late. I gambled here and it looks like, with his subsequent signing by the Brewers, that he could be a nice bonus. Thirty saves in Round 19 has a nice ring to it.

Round 20 – Ubaldo Jimenez, SP: With Jimenez heading into his third season, I like the potential upside here. It wasn’t all that long ago that drafting starting pitching from the Rockies was a huge taboo, but not anymore. The 25-year-old has to cut down on the base-on-balls, but I really like the high strikeout potential. He could close in on the 200 K mark in 2009.

Round 21 – Chris Ray, RP: It’s getting near the end, so why not do some gambling? And Ray is a good candidate to gamble on. George Sherrill is not the long-term solution and, if healthy, Ray could either put me over the top in saves. Or, he could be one of my first cuts. But that’s why they call it a gamble.

Round 22 – Wandy Rodriguez, SP: What do you want for a 22nd round pick? Now that Rodriguez has conquered his road woes, a 14-win season and upwards of 175 strikeouts could make him a very valuable end-game play in 2009.

Round 23 – Aaron Hill, 2B: I had several options for my middle-infield with my last pick and decided to go with Hill. He managed a solid 2007 campaign, and if he can bounce back from his concussion woes of last year, Hill could be a nice bargain. There are several candidates still out there, and let’s face it, anyone knowing me fully realizes that I will be making some moves over the next several months.

Overall, I’m happy with my effort. I have a decent power base, my usual top three potential in stolen bases and a strong bullpen with a couple of solid starting pitchers to anchor my rotation. We’ll see how my strategy of building a strong outfield and shorting first base holds up as the season progresses. What will eventually make the difference, as always, are the gambles one takes, and I believe with this effort I’m heading in the right direction from both a risk and upside perspective.

Thanks again to Mike for getting this project underway and to all of the skilled participants in this year’s league. Welcome to the 2009 season!

Dear RotoRob,
 
I have read what you’ve written in the Fantasy Baseball Guide (the Peter Kreutzer one) over the past few years, and also have read your site. I have two questions concerning keepers.
 
I play in a 5×5 Standard Roto League on Yahoo! We have 30-man rosters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 5x OF, 2x UTIL — can be from any position — 9x P, and nine bench spots). We keep eight players every season.
 
My roster for the last year:
 
C: Kelly Shoppach
1B: Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Delgado
2B: Dustin Pedroia, Brian Roberts
3B: Garrett Atkins
SS: Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki (Worst keeper decision that I ever made!)
OF: Jay Bruce, Pat Burrell, Jermaine Dye, Brad Hawpe, Lastings Milledge, Carlos Quentin, Ichiro Suzuki, Shane Victorino
SP: Dave Bush, Matt Garza, Randy Johnson, Jair Jurrjens, Jesse Litsch, Kyle Lohse, Jason Marquis, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Brandon Webb
RP: Joba Chamberlain, Joe Nathan, B.J. Ryan, Joakim Soria, Brad Ziegler
 
My two questions:
 
1. I have heard a lot of hype for Victorino so far. I love him, but I don’t know if he is worth keeping, especially considering the glut of outfielders on this team. Is he worth it?
 
2. Outside of Webb, are there any starting pitchers worth keeping?
 
I hope you get back to me, but if you don’t I understand…I’m sure you get hundreds of e-mails like this every day!
 
Thanks a lot,
 
Brian

Brian,

Well hundreds of e-mails is a bit of a stretch, but we’re always willing to help faithful readers.

The fact that you can’t wheel and deal before you declare who you are protecting does cause this analysis to be a bit of a challenge. You simply have too many solid players (and my hats off to you for acquiring them) for the number of protection slots in your league.
 
I’m a huge proponent of building in a solid core of speed into my fantasy squads, and in particular in a league format such as yours where (I’m assuming) you have a total of 12 teams x eight = 96 keepers. If you don’t protect the speed my guess is it simply won’t be there come draft day. You really don’t want to be chasing the Juan Pierres of the world if at all avoidable. I’ll list the no-brainers first, and then try to pare this one down to a final eight.
 
1. Youkilis, 1B (1B/3B eligibility is a big plus)
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Quentin OF
4. Webb SP
5. Nathan RP
 
All five of these guys are must keepers, in my opinion. They all represent top tier production at their respective positions. I’ve found this year that both middle-infield and first base tend to be top heavy and shorten themselves very quickly and Youk becomes a must keep as a result. As mentioned, the multi-position eligibility is also a nice bonus. Now the fun part…the other guys that should be considered: Roberts, Hawpe, Suzuki, Victorino, Matsuzaka and Soria.

I’d cut:

Dice-K – The WBC participation and the high walks concern me and the pool of starting pitching is rather deep this year, allowing you to get away by keeping just one SP. Just looking at your cuts alone leads me to believe the middle tier of SP in your league should allow you solid options.

Soria – I love the guy, but not at the expense of the offense you’d have to cut to keep him. Closers traditionally have a 25 per cent turnover, and between your draft and the waiver wire you should be able to find saves to add to the 40 or so Nathan gives you.

Hawpe – Another guy I love, but with Quentin and Youk, you already have a decent power base and to keep him you have to be looking at cutting the stolen bases, which are probably not going to be available in your draft. Power will be available in your draft way before speed is my guess. Take the lesser of two evils and keep whatever is going to be easier to replace later on.

That then leaves you with Ichiro, Roberts, and Victorino as your last three keepers. Combined, they represent 100+ stolen bases, an excellent BA, and a slew of runs scored. By keeping Roberts, it also forces someone to be a tad thin at the 2B slot, and that’s a good thing as finding a replacement there would be tough. Someone in your league is going to have to start a 2B that is not going to be an asset. I also think that Victorino has the potential to hit 15-18 homers, which is sweet. Add in Pedroia and it gives you a pretty good shot at a top four finish or better in stolen bases. Let your league mates chase the Juan Pierre types.

You certainly have some tough choices to make and I wish you well with them. My approach, and I believe it’s a solid one, is to identify both quality players, and players with skill sets that will be a challenge to acquire on draft day. You have a slew of other players that in most leagues would be considered keepers such as Burrell, Bruce, Dye, Ryan, Peralta, Garza, Delgado, and Atkins. I’d be strongly lobbying to increase the keepers to about 20 if I owned your team!

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