Well folks, now that 2009 is well underway, is there a better way to commence the New Year than getting that first league draft of 2009 under my belt? I’m not talking mock draft, but the real deal. Thanks to Mike Kuchera at TheFantasyMan.com for inviting Team RotoRob to partake in the 2009 version of The Battle of the Fantasy Gods. A fine cast has been assembled, including:

Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Troy Patterson – Fantasy Pros 911
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Brian Fitzsimmons – Sports Buff
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Brad Stewart – MLB Front Office
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Geoff Stein – Mock Draft Central
Mojo Moshovetis – Crucial Sports
Knox Bardeen – Crooked Pitch

Strategy

This league has a couple of nuances that caused me to do some serious pondering. There are no restrictions on innings pitched, no bench, and we’re doing weekly transactions. Other than that, it is your standard 5X5 rotisserie format with the customary 23 roster slots. Taking the format and rules of play into consideration was going to be a prime focus when looking at assembling a team in this year’s league. If one is going to play the game, understanding the rules is paramount when developing a solid and successful strategy.

This league is getting off to a very early start, and this definitely played into the development of my strategy. I wanted to attempt to acquire five-category players early (who doesn’t want that?), grab myself at least one, possibly two solid closers, two high risk save gambles, and build on two solid starting pitchers. In a daily transactions league I’d probably look at trying to fill my third and fourth relief pitchers from the waiver wire, but with 11 shrewd competitors all playing the waiver wire weekly, I don’t want to be chasing saves under those circumstances. The odds just get a tad long when bidding against the entire league for one category. With no bench to work from I also liked the idea of building into my team a potential strength for future trading purposes. Those were the primary reasons behind the five-four split on starting versus relief pitching. I feel reasonably confident in my abilities to procure starting pitching off the waiver wire if I want to attempt to boost my strikeouts and wins down the road.

I spent a fair bit of time mulling over my first pick (fifth overall) options, and came to the conclusion that I was going to focus on stolen bases with that selection. I was hoping Jose Reyes would fall to me and if he didn’t, I was flipping a coin between the two suspects I felt might be there as alternative options — Grady Sizemore or David Wright. Conventional wisdom would suggest I take Wright, but who says I’ve ever been conventional? With that in mind, let’s see how our starting point for the 2009 season shapes up.

Round One – Sizemore, OF: So we’re going to take the unconventional route in 2009. The stolen base potential was just too enticing and I decided Sizemore was my man with the fifth overall pick. It is pretty hard to argue with the 33 homers, 90 RBI, 101 runs scored and 38 thefts in 2008. Is the best yet to come for the 26-year-old outfielder? It would certainly stand to reason considering he’s just about to enter his prime power years.

Round Two – Justin Morneau, 1B: I wanted a solid corner this year and the runner-up in the 2008 AL MVP vote is a solid bet. I’ll take 25 homers, 125 RBI, and a .290 BA out of first base for 2009. Besides, what would a RotoRob entry be without some serious Canadian content?

Round Three – Matt Kemp, OF: It might be a bit early, but in a league of this calibre one either reaches a tad or watches them disappear off the board. The potential for a 25-homer, 35-stolen base season from Kemp is just too high for me to see him on someone else’s team.

Round Four – Alex Rios, OF: As much as I’ve crapped on Rios in the past, the lure of those stolen bases combined with the modest power potential made it so I just couldn’t lay off. The potential for Rios to repeat 20+ stolen bases, improve his power, and hopefully have a healthy Vernon Wells to provide some protection in the Jay line-up, should lead to a solid campaign in 2009.

Round Five – Brian McCann, C: I wanted a solid catcher and McCann has the potential to be the best in the business. I’ll be more than happy with a repeat of that fine 2008 season.

Round Six – Joey Votto, 1B: The potential upside from Votto in 2009 is huge. I’m hoping that he can build on that strong finish in 2008, and move into the top tier at first base this year. Is a 30-homer, 100-RBI, 15-SB season too optimistic a projection for this young Canuck?

Round Seven – Brad Lidge, RP: Well, that takes care of the stud closer situation. Normally I’d stay away from this strategy, but as I’ve mentioned earlier, with a draft this early, and the level of competition, I don’t want to be focusing on getting lucky on the waiver wire. Everything is going according to plan.

Round Eight – Joakim Soria, RP: I might as well make it two closers early and shore up my saves. Soria had a truly outstanding 2008 campaign, posting a 1.60 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and finishing second in the AL to only Francisco Rodriguez with 42 saves. The bullpen is in very good shape.

Round Nine – Johnny Damon, OF: Okay, he’s getting up there a bit in age, but batting at the top of the order for the Yankees, he has to find a way to score 100 runs. Toss in 15 homers and 20+ stolen bases and he’s a perfect fit for my team strategy.

Round 10 – Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP: I’m still a believer that the best is yet to come for Dice-K, and 2009 is going to be the year that his walks will drop and the strikeouts will rise. Of course, I do have a bit of a bias, being that he was one of my NPB scouting projects. A.J. Burnett and Jon Lester went just before my pick, and Edinson Volquez, Ben Sheets, Ricky Nolasco, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Dempster all went before my next kick at the can, so I think I jumped in at the right time.

Round 11 – Matt Cain, SP: At some point in time, the skill sets demonstrated by the 24-year-old Cain have to translate into some wins, don’t they?

Round 12 – James Loney, 1B: I was looking for another power bat heading into this round and the guy I had my sights on, Xavier Nady of the Yankees, was taken with the pick immediately before mine. Brad Hawpe went two picks before Nady. My outfield was solid, so why not grab another first base type and shorten the position a tad? As I mentioned several times this offseason, I see first base as a tougher position to fill in 2009 than it has been for a very long time.

Round 13 – Adam Jones, OF: Prospect alert! I’ve been targeting Jones in most of my early mocks so why not in the real deal? If in fact we don’t see the progression in his skill sets that I’m anticipating, the options are fairly deep in the outfield for 2009. Apparently Jones has done some beefing up in the offseason, so let’s hope it helps in the power department and doesn’t diminish that stolen base potential.

Round 14 – Jose Lopez, 2B: Was last year an overachievment or the commencement of bigger and better things? The 25-year-old middle-infielder has 20-homer, 85-RBI potential and with my speed already in good shape, he fits my team plan perfectly.

Round 15 – Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B: Now, here’s a guy that is getting very little respect. PETCO Park is far from being a hitter’s paradise, but the proven 20-80 power out of Kouz is just too tough to pass on at this stage of the draft.

Round 16 – Orlando Cabrera, SS: He is still waiting to find a home for this year, but the speed and runs scored potential out of O-Cab makes him a decent option. Cabrera was also the last shortstop on the board with at least some potential, making this decision a very easy one. When I decided to go with a heavy outfield/first base mix for this team it had to be at a cost, and my middle-infield would be that cost.

Round 17 – Scott Baker, SP: The Twins just keep cranking out those young arms, and Baker is poised for what could be a breakout campaign. He’s young, throws strikes and in Round 17, this has the potential to be a steal. The 27-year-old finished last season with seven quality starts in his last eight appearances, a 3.45 ERA (eighth best in the AL), 141 strikeouts and 11 wins. That is more than enough to get my attention.

Round 18 – Jorge Posada, C: I’m hoping for at least a bit better upside out of Posada than some of the last round gambles at catcher. A 15-homer, 60-RBI season out of Posada as my second catcher will suffice.

Round 19 – Trevor Hoffman, RP: I’m not a huge fan of Hoffman heading into this season, but I simply couldn’t ignore the save potential this late. I gambled here and it looks like, with his subsequent signing by the Brewers, that he could be a nice bonus. Thirty saves in Round 19 has a nice ring to it.

Round 20 – Ubaldo Jimenez, SP: With Jimenez heading into his third season, I like the potential upside here. It wasn’t all that long ago that drafting starting pitching from the Rockies was a huge taboo, but not anymore. The 25-year-old has to cut down on the base-on-balls, but I really like the high strikeout potential. He could close in on the 200 K mark in 2009.

Round 21 – Chris Ray, RP: It’s getting near the end, so why not do some gambling? And Ray is a good candidate to gamble on. George Sherrill is not the long-term solution and, if healthy, Ray could either put me over the top in saves. Or, he could be one of my first cuts. But that’s why they call it a gamble.

Round 22 – Wandy Rodriguez, SP: What do you want for a 22nd round pick? Now that Rodriguez has conquered his road woes, a 14-win season and upwards of 175 strikeouts could make him a very valuable end-game play in 2009.

Round 23 – Aaron Hill, 2B: I had several options for my middle-infield with my last pick and decided to go with Hill. He managed a solid 2007 campaign, and if he can bounce back from his concussion woes of last year, Hill could be a nice bargain. There are several candidates still out there, and let’s face it, anyone knowing me fully realizes that I will be making some moves over the next several months.

Overall, I’m happy with my effort. I have a decent power base, my usual top three potential in stolen bases and a strong bullpen with a couple of solid starting pitchers to anchor my rotation. We’ll see how my strategy of building a strong outfield and shorting first base holds up as the season progresses. What will eventually make the difference, as always, are the gambles one takes, and I believe with this effort I’m heading in the right direction from both a risk and upside perspective.

Thanks again to Mike for getting this project underway and to all of the skilled participants in this year’s league. Welcome to the 2009 season!

We had to take a few more days off from the report, inundated by the work week. Stupid work week! Anyways, we’re back with our look at the free agency scene. Seeking previous parts of the report? Of course you are! And you may find them here: Parts I, II, III and IV.

Minnesota Twins

After 2007 saw a streak of winning seasons that dated back to 2000 snapped, the Twins rebounded much quicker than anyone expected, winning 88 games last season and taking the White Sox to a one-game playoff before finally conceding the AL Central title.

Minny was driven by its offense, a lineup led by its JMs — no, not Schneider (although he does make tasty and versatile bacon), but rather Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau — that finished third in the American League in both batting average and runs. The pitching staff, however, was a bit too hittable, ranking 11th in BAA.

Whether that’s something the team will address through free agency or trade or simply organic growth remains to be seen at this point. The rotation certainly has plenty of room for growth – Francisco Liriano should be that much better in 2009 another year removed from Tommy John surgery and Nick Blackburn should improve his hit rates in his second season. However, despite his 12 wins last season, I’m not sold on Glen Perkins as the fifth starter, although I suppose you could do worse. The Twins will also need to address the loss of reliever Pat Neshek, who will probably miss the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this week, and with two of their free agents being southpaw relievers, that’s another area they’ll need to improve this offseason (although lefties Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares both impressed last season and Mijares in particular could be ready for a larger role).

It’s possible the Twinkies could parlay one of their glut of outfielders into some bullpen help or another starting pitcher.

Either way, this team made an impressive recovery from 2007, and with a mere four free agents this offseason – only a couple of which played key roles in 2008 – the Twins are in good shape heading into the final season of the Metrodome. That’s right, come Opening Day 2010, the Twins will finally be able to throw those Glad Bag walls into the trash where they belong as they open a new facility.

Adam Everett, SS: It was a lost season for Everett, as he endured two stints on the DL, the second of which was very lengthy. However, he was fairly productive while healthy and managed to cut his strikeout rate. But what happened to his speed, one of the few things that made him fantasy worthy? The Tigers are looking for a cheap option to replace Edgar Renteria, so Everett could be a good short-term fit there. The fact is, however, that I’m not sure Everett can hit enough to warrant a full-time job. Yes, he’s among the top defensive shortstops in the game, but his limited offense has been in decline since 2004. He sure as hell didn’t work out in Minny, but a team like Baltimore – which struggled all season long to find a shortstop who could stick – could be enticed to take a chance that Everett can bounce back – not that his offensive upside offers much room to bounce back to, mind you.

Eddie Guardado, LHP: Guardado looked reborn in Texas, but after a late-season deal, his homecoming in Minnesota was downright nightmarish. Still, he enjoyed a great season overall, really reducing his hit rates and settling in nicely as a solid set-up man. There are plenty of relievers with closing experience on the market, so Guardado will have competition to land a closing job and I really don’t see him getting another chance to save games at this stage of his career. But in the right situation, anything is possible. After he pitched so well for the Rangers last season, there’s a chance they’ll want him back. Tampa Bay may also be seeking an inexpensive late-inning man, especially if Troy Percival undergoes surgery and is not ready for the start of 2009. Colorado will be targeting a late-inning southpaw reliever to pitch in a set-up role, so you can be sure Everyday Eddie will be on its list.

Nick Punto, SS: Punto had a rough season, with two separate stints on the DL, but he when he played, he never played better, and because of his speed, he was a solid asset in AL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues. With Chase Utley likely out to start 2009, the Phillies could look to plug the hole with an inexpensive, short-term option like Punto, who toiled in Philly from 2001 to 2003. However, note that Punto would revert to a utility role once Utley was declared fit enough to return from his hip surgery.

Dennys Reyes, LHP: Reyes turned things around after a rather pedestrian showing in 2007, becoming a very steady LOOGY last season. He set a new career high in appearances, showed strong hit rates, improved control and sharper command. In fact, despite his limited innings, Reyes pitched well enough to offer some value in AL-only leagues, a rarity for someone with his role. With so many teams seeking left-handed bullpen help, Reyes won’t have any problem finding a job. After losing Jeremy Affeldt to free agency, Cincy will be seeking a replacement, but you can expect the Reds to have plenty of competition in the bidding for Reyes’ services.

Next: Well, we had planned to tackle the Yankees in this part as well, but we wrote a bit long (how novel for us!), so next up, we’ll check out the Yankees’ free agent situation.