Welcome back to the 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit. Over the next few weeks, we will be rolling out cheat sheets with analysis, essays and the classic Top 10 Lists that Fantasy Owners Always Wanted But Were Afraid to Ask For, a compendium of 10 Top 10 lists that no fantasy owner should be without. We’ll continue that today with Alex’s offering of the Top 10 source of Cheap Steals.

This is all these players do – steal bases. They can’t hit for an extremely high average, have no power, but they will steal bases. Who are they?

We know the Chone Figgins, Willy Taveras and Denard Span types will rack up the steals, but none of them will come cheap. So, we’re going to focus on players who will likely be late-round bargains who can help you win this category.

1. Michael Bourn, OF, Houston Astros – Projected 40-50 steals. If Bourn is to keep his starting gig in Astro-Land, he needs to improve upon his .230 batting average last year. When he does reach first base, he instantly becomes a weapon on the base path. Look for him to improve slightly and get more chances to steal. Last year he stole 42 bases, but expect him to approach 50 this year. If he struggles at the plate for an extended timeframe to open the season, I would not be surprised to see Houston look for other options. Personally, I would rather have Jason Bourne, but that is neither here nor there…

2. Carlos Gomez, OF, Minnesota Twins – Projected 30-35 steals. Gomez finds himself in the same category as Bourn. Improve or lose you job. Gomez is quite the base stealer and could some day easily steal 60, but he has trouble getting on base to do so. Last season, his on base percentage was .289, which is awful. I am sure coaches are working tirelessly on this project to find ways to get him on base. Last year he was sort of a pop out machine, so he did not even get to utilize his speed to leg out base hits. I still think Gomez is a lock for 30 steals, as he has too much talent and there is too much potential to see this guy on the Twinkies bench.

3. Jerry Owens, OF, Chicago White Sox – Projected 20-30 steals. Owens received some playing time last year with the injury of Carlos Quentin. Now, he finds himself battling for the centrefield job with DeWayne Wise. If Owens wins it he could approach 30 steals this year, but he does not do much more than steal. He won’t go yard, and he won’t drive in runs, so be careful with this one trick fantasy pony.

4. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers – Projected 25-35 steals. After Texas moved Michael Young to third base, the starting job at short belongs to the organization’s prized prospect. Andrus had over 50 steals last year at Triple-A, even after missing nearly a month with a broken hand. Elvis has some pop in his bat, but during his rookie campaign, he can only be relied upon for steals and runs. Eventually he could become a 15-20 home run guy, but we will have to see how he adjusts.

5. Coco Crisp, OF, Kansas City Royals – 20-30 steals. Crisp will get a chance to play every day in Kansas City and he is sure to improve on his part-time numbers from last year. He is a veteran who knows how to get on base and move himself to second base. He may be a sleeper this year as he gets more at bats and more chances to shine. Crisp has never been a huge steal guy, but has consistently been in the 20s.

6. Nyger Morgan, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates – Projected 20-35 steals. The Pirates are banking on Morgan to be their opening day lead-off hitter and premier base stealer. He has been inconsistent with the big league chances he has received, but there is no denying his raw speed that could be harnessed to produce big thievery numbers.

7. Juan Pierre, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers – Projected 15-25 steals. The signing of Manny Ramirez crushes the fantasy potential of Pierre this year, unless he gets traded. Without Manny, Pierre projects to steal over 40, but with him only around 20. Pierre is the last man out in a crowded Dodger outfield and there is no way anyone in their right mind would sit Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, or Man-Ram in favour of Pierre in their everyday lineup. Pierre could still be an effective source of steals if you could start him only when you know he will play. Just add another person to the growing list of Manny Ramirez haters.

8. Felipe Lopez, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks – Projected 20 steals. Last season was a bit of a write-off for Lopez, as he failed to even reach double digits in steals. But consider two numbers: (a) 44, as in the number of bases he stole just two seasons ago; and (b) .360, as in his batting average after the break last season. Combine these two and you’ve got a major comeback on your hands, one you can invest in cheaply.

9. Julio Lugo, SS, Boston Red Sox – Projected 20 steals. After missing a huge chunk of 2008 thanks to a quad injury, Lugo has to compete to regain his starting shortstop job. So far, he looks like he’s up to the task, and if he can wrestle the gig back from Jed Lowrie, that projected steal total will look very conservative.

10. Randy Winn, OF, San Francisco Giants – Projected 20 steals. Okay, so he’s not exactly tearing the cover off the ball this spring, but that’s all the more reason he will once again fly slightly below the radar on draft day. But when you look up at season’s end and see another quality line from Winn, you’ll wonder why you constantly ignore him on draft day.

Alright, the push is on to hammer the rest of these reports out as we gear up for the release of the 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit. If you’ve missed any of the previous parts of this series, catch up here:

American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X.

National League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers only made slight strides over 2007, but it was enough to win the NL West and come within three wins of the World Series. But let’s face it – without pulling the trigger on the Manny Ramirez deal, there’s no way this team earns its third straight winning season, never mind makes the postseason.

Of course, the fate of Manny is still very much up in the air, and if he bolts, the Dodgers will go back to the substandard offensive team they were before he arrived. This is a team that finished 13th in the NL in runs and slugging, but would have been much worse had Ramirez not looked like Ted Williams over the final couple months of the season. There were just too many passengers in this lineup. Jeff Kent looked like a shell of himself, and thankfully has opted for the rocking chair; Juan Pierre was simply awful, managing just 13 extra-base hits all season long, finally being reduced to a part-time role.

Unfortunately, the team has done very little to improve itself offensively, making the re-signing of Ramirez all the more vital.

Pitching was definitely this team’s strength in 2008 as they paced the NL in ERA, OPS against and WHIP. Hong-Chih Kuo was superb as a spot starter/long reliever; Cory Wade was spectacular out of the bullpen; Derek Lowe enjoyed a tremendous season, but has since departed, landing in Atlanta and leaving young Chad Billingsley as the de facto ace for the Dodgers.

Lowe’s departure, combined with the retirement of Greg Maddux and the dispatching of Brad Penny has left the Dodger staff potentially thin and rather fragile to an extent. This could prove to be the team’s undoing, although fortunately, they reside in a weak division where 84 wins was good enough to take home a title last season.

No. 2 starter Hiroki Kuroda dealt with shoulder problems last season, but so far this spring, the news is good. Clayton Kershaw, still not old enough to drink, will be asked to shoulder a heavy load. It would be a huge bonus if Jason Schmidt, finally pain free, can emerge with the fifth starter job, or if Jeff Weaver, added on a minor league deal, can rediscover the form that allowed him to win 27 games with the Dodgers in 2003 and 2004. And Randy Wolf is also back, another constant injury risk, but an arm that can definitely help if he can make 30 starts.

Closer Takashi Saito is gone, and while Jonathan Broxton can clearly handle the role (notwithstanding some hiccups in the playoffs that turned the NLCS in the Phillies’ favour), the trickle down effect will hurt the overall depth of the Dodger pen.

The Dodgers had to deal with a major-league high 13 free agents this offseason – a hell of a lot for a team seeking its first NL Championship since 1988.

One other piece of bad news for you Dodger fans, especially the superstitious types: LA has only made the playoffs in even numbered years since 2004. The youth movement is definitely underway in LA, but this team may have to take a step back before it can take another step forward.

Joe Beimel, LHP: Despite coming off his finest big league season, Beimel remains unsigned. He was a bit more hittable in 2008 than he’s been in a couple of years, but with the lusting after of lefty relievers by most teams this offseason, he was expected to get a multi-year deal. Now, he may have to head back to the Dodgers, where he lost in arbitration in 2007, perhaps just for one year.

Gary Bennett, C: Former juicer Bennett missed most of 2008 with an injury, not that anyone ever notices Russell Martin’s backup very often. He’s still out there, and despite his lack of action last year, I suspect Bennett will land a back-up role somewhere.

Casey Blake, 3B: Blake was having a fine year with the Tribe, but he struggled once he arrived in LA after the Dodgers gave up a couple of prospects to acquire him. Still, he cut his strikeout rate last season and gets on base at a decent clip and with such a weak market at the hot corner, the Dodgers opted to re-sign him for three years and $17 million.

Rafael Furcal, SS: Furcal was having a superb year, but his season ended extremely early, causing him to earn consideration for a 2008 RotoRob Award as the Fantasy Bust of the Year. Still, the Dodgers saw enough to bring him back, despite fierce competition from the A’s and Braves, the later of which actually thought they had signed him. Assuming the Dodgers don’t bring Manny back, Furcal will be counted on to spur the team’s little ball attack with his blazing speed.

Nomar Garciaparra, SS: He remains injury prone, but is a great team player, and when Furcal went down, Garciaparra shifted over to short for a while and actually emerged as a decent wire pick for a while. The Phillies have made him an offer, but his days of being able to handle a full-time job look done.

Jason Johnson, RHP: Despite his propensity to surrender too many long balls, Johnson held his own in a spot starter/long man role while he was with the Dodgers. A couple of years ago, Johnson had to go to Japan to find his way back to the majors, however, this year, the Yankees will give him a shot, penning him to a minor league deal.

Jeff Kent, 2B: Kent’s knee woes did him in and a walk rate that had been declining for the past couple of seasons really helped usher in the end for this 16-year-vet, who retired as a lifetime .290 hitter and one of the greatest power-hitting second basemen ever.

Derek Lowe, RHP: The loss of Lowe, whose control was impeccable last year, will really hurt. D-Lowe will look to propel the Braves back into contention this season.

Greg Maddux, RHP: Maddux was enjoying a fine year with the Padres, but as we predicted, he was dealt at the deadline back to the Dodgers, with whom he spent part of the 2006 season with. The Professor wasn’t quite as effective once he landed in LA, giving up more homers than normal, and then he decided to call it a day after 355 career wins. That’ll do, I guess.

Chan Ho Park, RHP: Park put himself back on the map with a fine season as a spot starter/long reliever in LA, becoming one of the Dodgers’ better reclamation projects. He looked like a serious retread back in 2006 when the Mets gave him a shot, but Park is now a legitimate candidate to battle for the fifth starter job on the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, who signed him for one year and $2.5 million.

Brad Penny, RHP: Penny dealt with some shoulder problems last season, looking good upon his return before getting rocked in his next start and landing back on the DL. He made it back for two appearances in September before shutting it down for the season. Now, Penny is part of a potent Red Sox rotation, and the former All-Star will try to prove last season was a blip.

Manny Ramirez, OF: Once Man-Ram arrived from Boston, he almost single-handedly turned the Dodgers season around. He was enjoying a solid year for the BoSox, but as a Dodger, he was absolutely sick, batting almost .400 and showing incredible power, patience and plate discipline. However, where Ramirez winds up is still anyone’s guess. The dude has already turned down a $25 million offer for one year from the Dodgers. Could division rival San Francisco swoop in and steal Manny? If the Giants do so, it could swing the balance in the NL West. The Dodgers don’t seem to be in any kind of panic to re-sign the future Hall of Famer, and that could cost them.

Mark Sweeney, 1B: As we discussed early last season, bringing Sweeney back last year didn’t work out so well. He looks like he’s done as he hasn’t even had any bites this offseason. Time for the 39-year-old to follow Kent’s model, perhaps.

Next: We’ll head northeast a ways and report on the Milwaukee Brewers’ offseason.