The 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit continues today as we kick off the RotoRob Top 10 Lists of Lists that Fantasy Owners always Wanted, but were Afraid to Ask For with the RotoRob debut of our newest voice, Todd Habiger, who brings us the Top 10 rookies. Please join me in giving Todd a hearty welcome to RotoRob. He’s a long-time fantasy expert and is an excellent writer, to boot!

This list includes players (with less than 130 major league at-bats or 50 innings pitched) that will create the biggest stir this season.

In fantasy leagues, owners are constantly search for the next big – that mega star that will lift their team to fantasy glory. But there is a danger in investing in too many rookies. For every Evan Longoria there’s an Alex Gordon, the player that despite the hype only puts up modest numbers in their rookie season. Unfortunately, most rookies aren’t going to pan out and give you superstar numbers, so buyer beware (or caveat emptor, for my Latin friends). Even so, rookies can be good for injury fill-ins or to plug into your starting lineup in deeper leagues.

Below are my best bets to help you this year.

1. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles: You got to like it when a rookie catcher is compared to Mike Piazza (unless they’re talking about his defense). Wieters comes into this season with a tremendous amount of hype, and based on his average draft position, you’ve noticed. He is a superb prospect that can help your team this year – but probably not for the first month or two. With the O’s not expected to contend, the plan is to keep Wieters in the minors long enough to delay his service time. So if you draft him, be sure you get a serviceable backup for the first month. After that, sit back and enjoy the ride.

2. Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: This super prospect lost a little luster last year with injuries and mediocre numbers. But don’t fret, he’s the real deal and will arrive this season. Tony La Russa plans to bat him ninth to start the season, but if Rasmus shows he can handle the bat he’ll move up in the order quickly. I expect a solid season for Rasmus in the range of .280-20-65-10.

3. David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays: If you haven’t heard of Price, stop reading right now, take your wife and kids out for a nice meal, take up building model cars and send the money you were going to waste playing fantasy baseball this year to: Todd Habiger, PO Box 1259, Overland Park, KS 66204. Of course, Price is one of the most hyped prospects of our time. His coming out party was when he closed the door on the Red Sox to send the Rays to the World Series. But his fame is going to be as a starter and from the looks of things he’s going to be a good – if not great – one. But remember, he is a rookie and his innings are going to be watched. Think 12 wins and an ERA in the mid to upper 3s.

4. Chris Perez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals: La Russa doesn’t plan on naming a closer, but rather go with a bullpen by committee. Really, how often has a committee worked out well? Expect Perez to eventually lay claim to the job and hold on to it for say, the next five to 10 years. He has a great fastball that can reach the upper 90s when he needs something extra. But Perez can be wild and lacks a consistent secondary pitch. Still, he’s the best option in a rather mediocre St. Louis pen. I’m putting him down for 25 saves.

5. Travis Snider, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Snider shot through the Blue Jays farm system last year, starting out at High A and ending up in the Show. This kid is the real deal and should lay claim to either an outfield or the DH slot. Power is Snider’s game and he should eventually find his way into the middle of the Jays lineup. Despite a somewhat high strikeout totally, scouts expect that Snider to settle into a .280 hitter or better.

6. Cameron Maybin, OF, Florida Marlins: This kid is an all-world athlete. A true five-tool player, Maybin should be able to translate those skills into a regular stint in the 30-30 club. As of now, he doesn’t have the greatest plate discipline, so don’t expect a stellar batting average or on base percentage right way. What you can expect is tape measure home runs, blazing thefts of second and lots of Sports Center moments. All that with a .230 BA.

7. Taylor Teagarden, C, Texas Rangers: The Ranger farm system is so deep that Teagarden didn’t even make Baseball America’s Top five Texas prospects. But my money’s on him having the biggest impact on the big league club this year. Teagarden had an impressive debut, smacking six home runs in 47 at bats to give him a leg up on the starting catcher position entering 2009. But it’s a tough road with former top prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia and fellow prospect Max Ramirez standing in the way. Still, Teagarden offers more of a complete package with his defense ability to call a game.

8. Brett Wallace, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals: Wallace is one of my big hunches this year (for more, see below). The man can hit. He started knocking the cover off the ball in High A ball and when an injury created an opportunity at Double-A, Wallace didn’t lose a beat, batting over .300 with power. With Troy Glaus injury prone and no suitable replacement on the St. Louis bench, I think Wallace could have an opportunity to make an impact on the big league club right away.

9. Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado Rockies: Fowler is a superb athlete who is still translating all his potential on the baseball field. Blessed with natural speed and strength, Fowler had an amazing 2008, being selected to the Futures Game and making the Olympic Team. While he hasn’t shown much power yet, scouts seem to think it’s only a matter of time. With the Colorado outfield looking pretty underwhelming right now, Fowler could find himself in a battle to make the opening day roster. If that happens, snatch him up.

10. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers: Not even old enough to legally drink yet, Andrus nonetheless unwittingly caused a ruckus this offseason when the Rangers said they were moving All-Star shortstop Michael Young to third base to make room for the kid. Young immediately asked for a trade, but eventually backed down and agreed to the move. While he will probably only show modest power in his career, Andrus has good speed and should be able to steal 20+ bases regularly.

Habby’s Hunches

RotoRob only wanted my top 10 so I gave him my best bets. But still, with no insider knowledge, I just have a feeling about the five guys below. There’s nothing out there to say these guys are ready or have an easy path to a big league job, but there’s something about them that my gut is telling me “these guys are going to do something this year.” If they pan out, remember you heard it here first. If they don’t, hey they were only hunches, what do you expect?

Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers: One J.J. Hardy stands in Escobar’s big league path, but eventually Hardy is going to be just a speed bump. Escobar is outstanding defensively and projects to hit with decent power, Throw in a touch of speed and you’ve got a future All-Star in the making.

Gordon Beckham, SS, Chicago White Sox: I must admit, I have a major man crush on Beckham. I think he’s going to be an outstanding power hitting shortshop (provided he stays there). The kid can simply rake. He hit the ground hitting, so to speak. Beckham showed good power in his minor league debut and then tore into AFL pitchers this winter. With Chris Getz no sure thing at 2B in ChiTown, I’m thinking Beckham might have a shot at seeing the Show this year.

Chris Tillman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles: Tillman is a good bet to open the year in Triple-A, but where he ends it is up for debate. He has nasty stuff – the kind No. 1 starters are made of. I’m guessing the first injury to the O’s rotation will unleash Tillman on big league batters and then, look out.

Kila Ka’aihue, 1B: Kansas City Royals: There’s nothing to suggest that Ka’aihue has any shot in hell of making the Royals this year. The club traded for Mike Jacobs and, if needed, Billy Butler can slap on a glove and play first base. But Ka’aihue has good plate discipline (something Jacobs can only dream about) and something the Royals sorely need. I personally think he’d look great in the middle of the Royal lineup.

Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta Braves: The Braves have revamped their starting rotation by adding Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez to the mix and seemingly leaving Hanson to fend for himself in Triple-A. Last year, Hanson had a season to remember, putting himself near the top of everyone’s top pitching prospects list. He dominated High A ball and didn’t miss a beat upon promotion to Double-A, a stint which included a no-hitter. The hitter-friendly AFL didn’t slow Hanson down either, as he won the pitching Triple Crown.

BY TIM McLEOD AND ROTOROB

And we’re off! With the release of our catcher rankings, the 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit is officially launched. Over the next few weeks, we’ll be issuing a complete set of cheat sheets with analysis, essays, columns and our destined-to-be-classic Top 10 Lists That Fantasy Owners Always Wanted But Were Afraid to Ask For. As a special treat, we’ll also be unveiling the most comprehensive keeper list ever compiled. Seriously.

By the way, Brandon Inge is not listed here, but rather is on our 3B list. If he were listed here, he’d be No. 18.

2009 Catcher Rankings

1. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves: McCann’s tremendous bounce back season in 2008 lands him in the top spot among backstops. He’s a real workhorse who hits for power and average and even added a little bit of speed to the mix last season. Oh ya, and he just turned 25 last month, meaning there’s plenty of upside. Expect to use a fifth round pick to land McCann, currently representing U.S.A. at the WBC.

2. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers: Martin is another young, multi-talented catcher who sees a lot of action behind the plate. And I mean a lot. Despite making 11 appearances at third base, this Canadian kid still caught 149 games. I’m starting to wonder if the workload is getting to him (he slugged 100 points less after the break), and how big a concern this should be heading into 2009. Martin has upside, but he was unable to build on his huge sophomore campaign, although the major increase in patience bodes well for his ability to develop into a .300 hitter.

3. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins: Mauer, hardly the old man on the list at age 25, bounced back from an injury-plagued down season in 2007 to set career highs in runs and RBI. He did an amazing job of cutting his strikeouts, while his plate discipline went to a completely different stratosphere. As a catcher who not only helped lead one of the top offenses in the AL and who finished fourth in the AL MVP race, Mauer is a major fantasy stud, capable of vaulting back to the top of this list by season’s end.

4. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs: Rarely do you see a hyped rookie catcher, once handed the keys to the kingdom, who actually makes a seamless transition. Such was Soto, who combined power, patience and a fine batting average into a season worthy of earning kudos as the 2008 RotoRob Fantasy Rookie of the Year. He’s plying his trade for Puerto Rico at the WBC and then will look to build on his big freshman effort with the Cubs.

5. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians: How can a guy who missed half the season, was extremely unproductive, saw his power completely evaporate, experienced a decline in his strike zone judgment for the second straight season and have the dubious distinction of being our 2008 RotoRob Fantasy Flop of the Year make our top five at catcher? Simple. V-Mart was coming off a 2007 season in which he launched a career-best 25 homers and had his customary .300+ BA, so we’re willing to give him a mulligan for 2008. He’s healthy and committed to returning to the elite (as evidenced by his turning down a chance to play for Venezuela at the WBC), so don’t let Martinez fall too far off your radar on draft day. He’s an excellent candidate to win another RotoRob Award in 2009 as the Comeback Player of the Year.

6. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles Angels: Despite an increasing strikeout rate, Napoli emerged as a serious offensive threat, spanking 20 dingers as a part-time backstop. Two years ago, he was nothing more than an injury waiver wire pickup, but now Napoli is a legitimate fantasy backstop. Do note that he’s dealing with a wonky right shoulder this spring after off-season surgery, so that’s going to slow him down, at least defensively, for now. But because of his potent bat, look for him to see time at DH on occasion when he’s not behind the dish.

7. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates: Doumit’s power keeps developing and as he enters his prime, it’s seems reasonable to think he’s capable of clouting 20 to 25 dingers this year, assuming he remains healthy – something that hasn’t always been easy for him. Still, Doumit took a huge step forward in 2008, doing a fantastic job of making better contact. Small wonder he made our Wire Troll NL All-Wire Team. The Pirates are convinced he’s for real, committing to a long-term deal with Doumit; you should consider doing the same for your team in a keeper league.

8. Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies: Yet another member of our coveted Wire Troll NL All-Wire Team, Iannetta, like Napoli, showed tremendous power in a limited role. He broke through with an extremely productive season, showing fantastic on-base skills as well as power. In fact, among NL backstops who had at least 300 at bats, Iannetta ranked second in OPS. He’s arrived and is plenty young enough to improve.

9. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants: So what if Molina is the slowest MLB player alive, just slightly faster than Ted Williams’ frozen head? The Giants rode him last season, and he responded with personal bests in many key categories, enjoying a tremendously productive year. Molina has pretty decent pop for a catcher and his strike zone judgment bounced back after a couple down years in that regard, but I do worry about the fact that he’ll be 35 this summer, and his body doesn’t exactly scream “in it for the long haul” to me.

10. Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles: Because of his tremendous power/average combo, Wieters is one of the most anticipated catching prospects to come along in many years. And if you’re thinking that just because he’s a rook, you can sleep on him in your draft this spring, think again. We’ve seen him going in the 10th round, so don’t let Wieters slide. There is some question about whether he’ll be the full-time starter right from the get-go, but no one doubts that the job will be his soon. Baltimore certainly has cleared the catching decks for him, shifting 2005 first rounder Brandon Snyder to a corner infield slot (although injuries were a part of that plan, too) and shipping incumbent Ramon Hernandez to Cincy.

11. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox: Another veteran catcher who’s getting a wee bit long in the tooth, Pierzynski still managed to impress us enough in 2008 to record his third 150-hit season. For now, he remains a productive backstop.

12. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees: Posada struggled badly last season, endured two trips to the DL and finally had his season end early thanks to shoulder surgery. He’ll slide this year as a result (you can get him in the 18th round of some drafts we’ve been involved with), but don’t sleep on him too long – reports on this Yankee leader’s shoulder have been extremely positive this spring.

13. Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay Rays: Despite an early-season injury, Navarro set a career high in games played, responding with the finest offensive season of his career. There’s still plenty of upside here, and I could see him turning into that long-promised .300-hitting catcher, but I wonder what impact losing in arbitration to the Rays will have on the youngster.

14. Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland Indians: Pop quiz: who led all AL catchers in home runs last season? In any other season, V-Mart or Posada would be good guesses, even Hernandez. But in 2008, it was Shoppach’s 21 dingers that led the way. Cleveland’s “backup” catcher just keeps getting better and better. He’s a productive bat who made some strides in improving his patience at the plate last year. With Martinez expected to see plenty of action at first base and DH, don’t worry about Shoppach not getting enough at bats to be a very useful fantasy asset.

15. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals: One of the best defensive catchers in the biz, Molina’s offensive game has been developing nicely as well the past couple of seasons. His strike zone judgment is so strong, leading me to believe that there’s definitely room for further improvement here. In fact, I spent plenty of time last season wondering why he was so underappreciated as a fantasy asset. I still don’t have a good answer.

16. Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona’s intense starting catcher tied his career high in games played, experiencing yet another season of offensive growth in 2008. He’s not much of a contact hitter, upping both his walk and strikeout rates – so if you’re looking for a .300 hitting catcher, Snyder’s not your man. But he’s primed for a big-time power breakout, and it wouldn’t shock me if he approached 25 home runs this year.

17. Ramon Hernandez, Cincinnati Reds: Hernandez’s power bounced back a bit last season, but don’t be looking for him to put up any more 20-dinger years, especially now that he’s in Cincy, which is actually a tougher HR park than Camden (at least in 2008). He’s been in slow decline for a couple of years, and I expect that to continue this season. Expect something to the tune of .260 with a home run total in the low teens. Honestly, Hernandez strikes me as a fantasy catcher that is very close to falling off the map. He’ll offer the Reds more offense from the catcher position than they’ve had in recent years, but that’s not saying much.

18. Jeff Clement, Seattle Mariners: He’s a tremendous power prospect, but Clement struggled to show it as a rook and clearly needs to develop a more patient approach at the plate. He’s going to get a chance to be the starting catcher, but note that Seattle is also preparing to employ him as the backup at first base and I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or not. I suppose it is as long as Clement qualifies at catcher, and the team finds ways to get him more at bats. Gauging Clement’s long-term home on the diamond, however, is trickier business. We already identified Adam Moore as a serious threat to Clement’s claim as the catcher of the future in Seattle, and that’s something to consider in a keeper league.

19. Kurt Suzuki, Oakland Athletics: Suzuki proved to be a real workhorse in his first full season in the majors, although he wasn’t able to develop his power at all. There’s still time to see if some of his doubles will turn into homers, but I have my doubts. What concerns me more was his less patient approach in 2008 – something that won’t be tolerated in Oakland. Suzuki was scorching mid-season, making for a great pickup, but he really faded down the stretch (perhaps because of the huge workload?). Suzuki’s role as the starting catcher is unchallenged for now, but 2009 could be a very important season for determining whether or not he’s a useful long-term asset.

20. Jesus Flores, Washington Nationals: Flores took over as the starting catcher, getting the bulk of the work behind the plate for the Nats last season. I’d like to him develop more patience, because as is, he could be limited from a batting average perspective. Still, there’s enough gap power, productivity and upside potential here to warrant grabbing Flores in the 20th round.

21. Gerald Laird, Detroit Tigers: Laird rebounded from an awful 2007 season, but that only added to Texas’ catching depth. The Rangers helped clear this logjam by dealing him to Detroit this offseason, and so far, the Tigers are thrilled with their acquisition.

22. John Baker, Florida Marlins: Baker came out of nowhere last season, showing pop and patience after an extremely long apprenticeship in the minors. Yes, he’s quite inexperienced, but he spent the offseason improving his ability to shut down the running game – something that will stead him well in his quest to remain a starter.

23. Ivan Rodriguez, FA: I-Rod’s power continued to decline, but at least his overall game looked like it had bounced back to an extent last season. But then, he arrived in the Big Apple and his extra-base pop completed disappeared. We thought Boston or the Mets might be interested, but neither of those options panned out. There was even word Texas wanted to bring him back (assuming it could deal away one of its trio of great young catchers), where Pudge could be a mentor and back up whoever won the starting job. But Rodriguez still wants to play five days a week, so forget about that plan. Finally, there is the ongoing rumour that Florida will bring him back, and if that happens, obviously Baker won’t be as valuable.

24. Taylor Teagarden/Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Texas Rangers: This duo earns a single entry as the winner of the job will be ranked right here. To add to the confusion, young Max Ramirez is another talented young backstop for Texas. Teagarden has played the fewest big league games, but he may very well be the best of the trio. Saltalamacchia, the youngest, has been knocking on the door for a while now, but his offensive development stalled last season. We considered him a must-own when he was recalled last season, but it didn’t work out so well for Salty. Many expect him to break camp as the starter and hold the job initially, and his big start to the spring has done nothing to alter that opinion.

25. Miguel Olivo, Kansas City Royals: Olivo was more or less in a job share with John Buck last season, but despite his low contact rates, the Dominican showed a better stick than he had in 2007 with the Fish. He got off to a strong start, making him an early-season wire target for AL-only owners, and although his BA slipped dramatically in June and July, he’s expected to be the main man behind the plate in KC this season. Do note that Buck will continue to fight Olivo for PT all season long, so this is far from a settled situation.

Others to Consider

26. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
27. Jason Kendall, Milwaukee Brewers
28. Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies
29. Rod Barajas, Toronto Blue Jays
30. Paul Lo Duca, F/A

Cheat Sheet Archives

2008 Preseason

Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers
Outfielders

2007

Third basemen
Shortstops
Second basemen
First basemen
Prospects

2007 Preseason

Catchers

Spring Training is officially underway, and all is right with the world again. That means it’s time for us to step up our baseball coverage, starting with the completion of our free agent report. Miss a section? Here you go:

American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X.

National League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII and IX.

Philadelphia Phillies

The defending World Champions had great balance in 2008, with a powerful lineup, a great bullpen and a fine rotation. This is a team that’s been on the rise for a couple of years now, but can they defend? Well, with a mere four free agents to deal with this offseason, they were more or less guaranteed to return virtually intact.

Pat Burrell, OF: This consistent slugger won’t help you in batting average, and his strike zone judgment slipped after a career best showing in 2007, probably explaining his slight reduction in numbers. Still, Pat the Bat draws a ton of walks, topping the century mark in each of the past two seasons. Philly opted not to bring him back, signing Raul Ibanez instead. Burrell, meanwhile, switched leagues and has gone to the team Philly took out in the Series – Tampa Bay. How ironic will it be if these two teams meet in the Series again and Burrell proves to be the difference?

Tom Gordon, RHP: Flash has been in decline for four years now, and last season ended early thanks to elbow surgery that will likely translate into a late start this year. The Phils let him walk, and Arizona swooped in, becoming the eighth team to stitch Gordon’s name on its uniform. We shouldn’t expect much – hell, the dude’s old enough that his son was drafted last year, but Arizona’s late inning situation is a land full of possibilities given the amount of question marks. So don’t be shocked if Gordon actually emerges with some value. Or not.

Jamie Moyer, LHP: If Gordon is old, what does that make Moyer? Yet, unlike Gordon, who has been sliding for a few years, Moyer is coming off his finest season as a Phillie, making me wonder just when the hell this dude will slow down. Obviously the Phillies don’t think it will be anytime soon, re-signing him for two years. The lefty with the timeless changeup really cut down on the long balls allowed last season, and that made a huge difference.

Rudy Seanez, LHP: Another aging arm, Seanez was cut from the Dodgers during the pre-season and wound up having a pretty good season with the Phils. He walked too many, struck out too few, got hurt, yet enjoyed decent bottle line results. Seanez always seems like such a long shot to make whatever team he’s battling for a job with, but it wouldn’t shock me if he lands yet another gig somewhere. However, to date, he’s not getting any bites this offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Sixteen straight losing seasons and counting; an offense that was middling at best (and that’s being extremely generous) and a pitching staff that was horrendous. This team has its work cut out for itself. Again. Something positive: The Buccos had just four free agents to deal with, yet they let every single one leave, but that could be addition by subtraction as each of them were aging veterans. So if nothing else, the Pirates should be younger in 2009.

Chris Gomez, 3B: Although he enjoyed a fine start to the season, his chances – and play – deteriorated badly in the second half when he barely hit .200. His extra-base pop was almost non-existent, leaving him as a very unproductive utility player. Signed by the O’s, Gomez will try to win a job in B-More, but with Ty Wigginton there, it’s going to be tough.

Jason Michaels, OF: Another veteran bench player the Pirates let walk, Michaels started the season with the Indians, but was so bad, they had to DFA him. Dealt to the Pirates, he was better, but that’s not saying much. He simply doesn’t get on base often enough to be useful, strikes out too often, and his power is slipping. Now with Houston, he’ll add bench strength to the Astros, but won’t be of any use for fantasy purposes unless half the team eats some bad crawfish.

Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B: Yet another veteran backup Pittsburgh allowed to leave, Mientkiewicz saw plenty of action with the Pirates last year, but as we discussed last season, with no power to speak of, he’s not roster-worthy. The Dodgers have given him a shot as a non-roster player, but the best case scenario is he beats out Hector Luna and Luis Maza for a back-up corner infielder gig.

Luis Rivas, SS: What’s this? Another backup the Pirates parted ways with? Are you sensing a trend? Rivas was awful in the first half, earning the non-fantasy factor stamp from us, but shockingly, he was even worse in the second half, recording a 454 OPS after the break. Somehow, the Cubs were interested enough to sign Rivas to a minor league deal, where he’ll compete for the second utility infielder job, something I expect will stead him with zero fantasy value yet again.

Next: We’ll hop aboard the Main Line and head to St. Louis to check in on the Cardinals.

Welcome to another edition of The Hidden Truth. Today, we will take a look at steals. Here we have another fantasy category that is often overlooked, but is just as important as anything else. When you prepped for your draft, did you even look at steals? Would that even sway your decision for picking up a free agent? Do keep in mind that steals are usually a guard-oriented category; you do not get much help from your big guys. For that reason, there is no sense listing every centre in a list of dudes that don’t get steals. Instead, I will take you through three different lists.

10 Studs that Steal

This is the cream of the crop as far as steals go. They are all lock-em-up fantasy starters every week, with the exception of Mario Chalmers, who is a borderline fantasy starter. Consider this group the board of the Thievery Corporation.

1. Chris Paul, G, New Orleans Hornets: – 2.7 steals per game. Besides stealing basketballs from fellow NBAers, he is stealing Right Guard money for those awful commercials. I don’t care about Paul’s pits.

2. Jason Kidd, G, Dallas Mavericks – 2.2 steals per game. J-Kidd may be a fading star in the NBA, but there are several things he still does well, and creating turnovers is one of them.

3. Dwyane Wade, G, Miami Heat – 2.1 steals per game. Flash fills the passing lanes and comes up with over a couple steals per game. [As an aside, RotoRob had a dream the other night that he was Dwyane Wade and was playing a game of halfcourt using a 45 RPM record instead of a basketball. Can someone explain that, please?]

4. Rajon Rondo, G, Boston Celtics – 2.0 steals per game. Rondo has a large wingspan coupled with big hands that allows him to pick the pocket of his opponent with ease. You’ve been “Rondo’ed.”

5. Mario Chalmers, G, Miami Heat – 1.9 steals per game. Chalmers is the lone rookie on this list. He has had a fairly solid freshman campaign beneath the wing of  D-Wade, who has taught him a thing or two about NBA thievery.

6. LeBron James, F, Cleveland Cavaliers – 1.8 steals per game. What stat cat doesn’t King James fill?

7. Gerald Wallace, F, Charlotte Bobcats – 1.8 steals per game. Wallace is an ultra-athletic three man who contributes on both ends of the floor.

8. Baron Davis, G, Los Angeles Clippers – 1.8 steals per game. B Diddy could not shoot a beach ball into the Atlantic Ocean this year, but he still plays some D and comes up with loose balls. It also should be noted that he is stealing millions of dollars from Donald Sterling.

9. Ron Artest, F, Houston Rockets – 1.7 steals per game. Ron-Ron is a premier defender in the NBA who has always ranked high in steals. Even on one strong ankle, he’s still a stud in this cat.

10. Andre Iguodala, G, Philadelphia 76ers – 1.7 steals per game. Iggy helps your fantasy squad in many ways, including pitching in in the steals department.

10 Studs Who Should Get Steals, But Don’t

This is a list of guys that may surprise you with their theft ineptitude. If you have one of these guys, this does not mean you should cut or trade them. Simply realize that maybe you are lacking production in steals because of these guys.

1. Tayshaun Prince, F, Detroit Pistons – 0.5 steals per game. Prince is a lengthy defender that I would think would average at least 1.5 steals a game, but he’s never recorded more than 0.8 SPG in any one season.

2. Michael Beasley, F, Miami Heat – 0.5 steals per game. Beasley was dominant last year in college, but I am not really seeing the production and energy this year. That extends to the defensive end, where he has struggled at times.

3. Aaron Brooks, G, Houston Rockets – 0.6 steals per game. This lighting quick point guard is getting a chance to start now that Rafer Alston has been traded. It is a surprise, however, to see his steals down so far, seeing that he plays so fast and low to the ground.

4. D.J. Augustin, G, Charlotte Bobcats – 0.6 steals per game. This rookie is having a decent year, but has not gotten the steals one may think. His shot is starting to come around and he will improve his defense over the next few seasons, but don’t expect big steal numbers this year.

5. Raja Bell, G, Charlotte Bobcats – 0.6 steals per game. This is may be the most surprising guy on the list for me. Bell is a great defender but does not get steals, unlike Artest.

6. Steve Nash, G, Phoenix Suns – 0.7 steals per game. The aging Canadian national has never averaged over a steal a game during his stint in Phoenix. This may be a surprise to some seeing as how Paul, a guard with similar vision, averages over 2.5.

7. Richard Jefferson, F, Milwaukee Bucks – 0.7 steals per game. I would have thought that Jefferson would be over a steal a game, but apparently not.

8. Jamal Crawford, G, Golden State Warriors – 0.8 steals per game. Crawford is the ultimate gunner. He could give you 20 points, but he only throws in the occasional rebound, assist, steal, or block.

9. Ben Gordon, G, Chicago Bulls – 0.8 steals per game. See Crawford, Jamal.

10. Al Thornton, F, Los Angeles Clippers – 0.8 steals per game. Thornton is an improving player, but does not get very many steals. He does average nearly a block a game, so he does have a defensive presence.

10 Possible Free Agents who get Steals

Here is a list of guys that you can use for some spot starts or to fill in a hole. If you check you league standings and see points to gain in the steals department, it could not hurt to throw in a few spot starts with these guys, if they are available in your league.

1. Trevor Ariza, F, Los Angeles Lakers – 1.62 steals per game. Ariza has active hands and an improving perimeter game.

2. Ronnie Brewer, F, Utah Jazz – 1.63 steals per game. Brewer, who also made an appearance on the top FG percentage list, fills the steals category on a regular basis.

3. Delonte West, G, Cleveland Cavaliers – 1.49 steals per game. Now that Redz is back from injury, he is looking to contribute in points, assists, and steals.

4. Luke Ridnour, G, Milwaukee Bucks – 1.35 steals per game. Ridnour is sharing time with Ramon Sessions, but is a decent stopgap that can give you points, assists, and steals on a pretty regular basis.

5. Derek Fisher, G, Los Angeles Lakers – 1.27 steals per game. The Laker fans love Fisher, and so will you if you give him a spot start and he knocks down a few threes and throws in a few steals.

6. C.J. Watson, G, Golden State Warriors – 1.27 steals per game. It is always dangerous to mix fantasy basketball and Don Nelson. Proceed with caution.

[edit]7. Anthony Parker, G, Toronto Raptors – 1.24 steals per game. Parker is available in most leagues, and he puts up decent numbers, especially in steals. If I were Parker, I would never have time to get any steals because I would be too busy throwing up thinking about how Shelden Williams knocked up my sister. How gross.

8. Jamario Moon, F, Miami Heat – 1.13 steals per game. I think Moon could be a great fit in Miami. He could be worth a long term pick up if he continues to start.

9. Ronald Murray, G, Atlanta Hawks – 1.04 steals per game. Murray has been getting decent run lately. He can score and get you over a steal per game, too!

10. Jordan Farmar, G, Los Angeles Lakers – 1.05 steals per game. I think Farmar will start to get more and more minutes down the stretch. The Lakers will need him in the playoffs, and he provides energy, shooting, and defense on a pretty consistent basis.

With all this said, steals is just another category that you should consider when making any fantasy moves. Most people, I would say, tend to ignore steals, but there are roto points to be gained by those who pay attention to….The Hidden Truth.

The Orlando Magic is having a fantastic season, building on last year’s success and riding an improved defense towards what could be a 60-win campaign. However, it’s reasonable to wonder if Orlando is hitting a wall, after losing six of 14 games in February, a record that might have been .500 for the month had it not been for a great comeback against the Sixers Saturday night.

The Magic is firmly entrenched in first place in the Southeast Division, and isn’t really being challenged for third overall in the Eastern Conference, but with Cleveland not slowing down, Orlando is slipping a bit further away from the Cavs and is not gaining on Boston, either. Is this a legitimate contender? The talent is definitely there, but is this team tough enough to go deep in the playoffs? That’s the big question facing the Magic as the season winds down.

Adding Rafer Alston at the deadline was a stroke of genius, plugging a big hole left by the injured Jameer Nelson. Hedo Turkoglu is starting to play more like the man who was the NBA’s Most Improved Player last season as opposed to the inconsistent, often poor-shooting performer he’s been most of the season. Orlando lost Mickael Pietrus to another injury, but Courtney Lee has stepped in admirably and, with his recent performance, is providing the Magic with the most consistent play it’s gotten out of the two-guard spot all season.

Best of all, Orlando comes home for a pair of games this week in the hopes that it can start to string some wins together after a middling few weeks. If it hopes to successfully chase down Cleveland or Boston, the Magic can’t afford any more letdowns this season.

While the Magic offense isn’t quite as good as it was last season, when it was the top-scoring team in the East, it’s not exactly chopped liver this year, remaining among the best in the association.

Rashard Lewis was a big part of that attack earlier this season. In fact, he was on a serious tear the last time we checked in on him, but his touches have been down the past couple of months, and February was a real bust, as his shooting went into the tank. Less shots + less makes = unhappy fantasy owners. On the plus side, Lewis snapped a slump and ended the month on a high Saturday, leading the way with 8-for-12 shooting from the floor and 2-for-2 from the line for 23 points. Orlando, one of the most prolific 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, was filling it up Saturday with 15 treys, and Lewis led the way, canning five of them (on eight tries) and pitching in with three assists as well. And with shootout inducing Phoenix coming to town Tuesday, Lewis has a chance to put together back-to-back solid efforts for his owners for the first time since January. Lewis still isn’t getting any more touches than he did last season, and when he is getting the looks, the fact that his shot has been in decline for three years running is a concern. He remains an amazing source of 3-pointers – give him at least one in 52 straight games – but I could see him slipping into the fourth round in next year’s drafts.

Like I said, the Magic likes to employ the deep ball. In fact, Orlando tied a franchise mark last night when it heaved up 37 shots from beyond the arc Saturday. Holy long distance attack, Batman. Lee wasn’t exactly red hot, but he led the parade with 12 attempts among his team-high 18 shots for the game. That’s the most touches the rook has ever had in a game – a fantastic sign for his owners. By the way, you can count me among his newest owners, as I got fed up waiting for Rudy Fernandez to earn more PT in Portland, dumping the Spaniard for a different freshman. So far, I’m pretty stoked about the results.

Saturday’s win over Philly was huge. Coming off a disheartening home loss to a severely struggling Detroit team on Friday, there was definitely reason to begin questioning whether Orlando was a contender or pretender. But coming back from 11 points down in the fourth quarter in Philly against a Sixers team that plays pretty well at home will help shut up the critics. The Magic dominated the fourth quarter, outscoring Philadelphia 36-20, with Lee draining 13 points himself, the most he’s ever scored in a single stanza. Orlando is now 21-9 on the road, third best in the NBA, and that’s got to scare the crap out of any potential playoff opponent because stealing wins on the road during the postseason is what makes a champion. So as long as the Magic maintain its no fear policy on the road, it will be handful for anyone.

If the season ended today, Orlando would meet the 76ers in the first round — a match up that the Magic would probably be chomping at the bit over. Orlando has now won four straight and eight of its past nine games over Philly. By taking all three games against the Sixers this year, Orlando has swept them for the first time since 1997-98. That Magic squad was a .500 team led by Penny Hardaway, by the way.

The thing about the Magic is it really lives and dies by the 3-ball. It had made just 10-of-30 through three quarters, well below its season average of 39 per cent. So you’d think Orlando would scale back on the perimeter game in the fourth quarter, right? Uh, maybe not. The Magic attempted another seven treys in the final quarter, hitting five of them to change the complexion of the game. Like any jump shooting team, Orlando is prone to slumps, but full marks for plowing through on Saturday.

If Detroit has any designs on winning its fifth straight Western Conference regular season title, then it better find a way to earn a win against the San Jose Sharks Wednesday night at Joe Louis Arena.

The Wings have pulled away in the Central Division and have made slight gains on the Sharks, yet remain five points back with two more games played than San Jose heading into action Wednesday. With this being the final meeting between the two teams, it’s obvious that this is as close to a must-win game that Detroit will face until the postseason.

It’s not as if the Wings have slacked off at any time this season. Their worst month was January (and really that was limited to a late slump), and I doubt the 7-4-2 mark last month sent any of their fans into therapy. In fact, Detroit, one of the model organizations of the league, is on its way to bettering its record for the second straight season. Yet, San Jose is showing no cracks in its game, making it next to impossible for Detroit to gain any traction in the standings. Are the Wings locked into the No. 2 seed in the West? We’ll have a much clearer idea after this battle.

There are a couple of factors working against Detroit here: it’s dropped two of the last three vs. San Jose; and the Wings aren’t exactly soaring right now. Sure, they had rhymed off six straight wins earlier this month, but have been uncharacteristically middling over the past five games (2-2-1) after getting dumped by 5-2 in Minnesota on Saturday.

Some things to watch for in this game:

• Claude Lemieux will not get a standing ovation in his return to Motor City after a five-year retirement. The 43-year-old super pest is among the most hated men in Detroit history. Something tells me the half decade Lemieux spent in his rocking chair hasn’t changed that.
• Detroit’s goaltending situation is in a bit of a mess right now. Prospect Jimmy Howard was brought up from Grand Rapids to take the place of the slumping Chris Osgood, who has been given a “mental breather.” Howard, who is enjoying an excellent season, didn’t fare well in his season debut on Saturday as he got rocked early, but he is someone to keep an eye on for the future. With the aging Osgood suffering through his worst NHL season, Ty Conklin has proved to be a real saviour for the Wings this season, and he’s definitely someone you want to consider adding if you need a goalie. In our pre-season rankings, we expressed concern over Osgood’s ability to handle a huge workload, but certainly didn’t see this collapse coming. Osgood’s 10-day break will end Friday night when he goes back in net against the Kings. If Detroit has any hope of making a move on San Jose, it will need Osgood to return to his form from last season, or at least something resembling that. Conklin, meanwhile, will be looking to extend his 11-game home winning streak – a run that has matched the third best in Red Wing history. Overall, he’s a perfect five-for-five when he starts in February. Like I said, Conklin has been an absolutely lifesaver for the Wings.
• This is a battle pitting the top two power plays in the NHL against each other. However, Detroit didn’t exactly look like the best power play team in the league Saturday, going 0-for-5 with the man advantage, but had gone 9-for-17 in the three games before that loss. And therein lies the difference between these two teams: while San Jose – with the fourth best penalty killing unit in the league – is capable of shutting down Detroit’s power play, the same can’t be said for the Wings, who are one of the worst penalty killing teams in the NHL. Advantage San Jose.
• Dan Cleary, who just keeps getting better since he arrived in Motown, is heating up with three goals and two assists in his past four games. Need a forward? He could be available, and while he isn’t racking up the +/- numbers he did last season, Cleary is headed for his first 45-point season, a total he should easily eclipse now that he’s been moved to the top line in Detroit. Now, if he can just learn to stay healthy, he could turn into a serious difference maker. A jaw injury cost him a good chunk of 2007-08, and this season it was an eye injury.
• Don’t look for the Wings to get shut down very often like Saturday, when the Wild held them to a pair of goals. Detroit definitely had its struggles when it limped out of January on a season-worst five-game losing skid, but since then, the Wings have turned it own, scoring 48 goals in 11 games while going 8-2-1. Having said that, this week is a tough test for Detroit’s NHL-leading offense, as it had to deal with Minnesota, and its second-best GAA in the NHL, and now San Jose, almost as good with the third best GAA.
• As great as he was last season in his debut with the Wings, Brian Rafalski has been even better this season as he puts together a career year, at least offensively, at the age of 35. He’s recorded assists in four straight games (six helpers in total), and going back even further, he has 12 points in his last eight games and has managed two or more points in half of those contests. He made the top 10 in our pre-season rankings, and although his +/- isn’t as high as we’d like, Rafalski certainly has been all that on offense.

Oh, baby! Spring Training games start Wednesday – meaning that in less than 24 hours, we’re going to be checking out boxscores. It doesn’t get any sweeter than that. Well, except checking out boxscores while being hand-fed Twinkies by scantily-clad 18-year-old ladies, of course.

Our previous installments:

American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X.

National League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII and IX.

New York Mets

Given a second straight September meltdown that cost them a post-season berth, it’s easy to overlook the fact that the Mets actually improved in 2008 (albeit, by a single win). Really, the bottom line here is that the Mets were a mediocre team other than July and August when they went on a 36-19 run. The team’s “disastrous” September (13-12) was no different than the club’s record in April and was in fact better than how they fared in May and June.

Still, it’s time for the Mets to wipe all that away and focus on the future, which means the christening of a brand new stadium – Citi Field – and hopefully, with it, a new era.

The team may certainly have a different look this season, as manager Jerry Manuel — about to begin his first full season in charge of the Mets — is considering some major tinkering to the lineup. Luis Castillo may shift to the top of the order, with Jose Reyes dropping to the three-hole and Carlos Beltran moving up to the second spot. Carlos Delgado would slide up to cleanup, while David Wright would drop from third to fifth.

Hmmm…taking one of the best leadoff hitters in the game and shifting him? Uh, okay.

But the Mets are looking for a big recovery from Castillo after he sucked in his first season with the team. He’s dropped 17 pounds and the expectations for a major recovery are large – enough so that I’m reconsidering my plan to dump his sorry ass this spring.

Another change in the lineup could occur in left field, where Daniel Murphy is being pegged as the new starter, a move that would certainly cut into the value of Ryan Church.

Offense was the Mets’ calling card last season, as they ranked second in runs and steals. Beltran has been sliding for a couple of seasons, but remains a force in centrefield, and may see a bump in value batting out of the two-hole. Expect more runs, but less RBI. Reyes rebounded after an off year in 2007, but had his lowest stolen base total since he’s been a full-time player.

The pitching was middling as best last season, ranking seventh in WHIP. In fairness, other than Pedro Martinez – who looked toast – the starting rotation was pretty good; the bullpen, however, was the bane of the Mets’ existence in 2008. That’s a situation that has been addressed in a big way with the signing of Francisco Rodriguez and the acquisition of J.J. Putz.

With 11 free agents this offseason, the Mets had plenty to deal with as they attempt to take the next step and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Fortunately, the offense was barely affected, with just one key bench player among the free agent class; the pitching free agents, however, included two members of the rotation.

Free Agents

Moises Alou, OF: One of the most injury-prone players of his generation, Alou was limited to 15 games thanks to calf and hamstring problems, the latter of which ultimately necessitated season-ending surgery in July, just the highlight of a season filled with injuries to Met outfielders. He remains unsigned, but it’s possible Philadelphia or Toronto (looking for a temporary replacement for Vernon Wells) may come calling.

Tony Armas, Jr., RHP: Armas never looked worse than he did last season during his brief time with the Mets, but at Triple-A, he showed great control and posted strong hit rates, hinting at the pitcher who was once a top prospect in the Expo system. But the fact is, he hasn’t been useful since early in 2006, and as usual, injuries derailed him that season. Anyways, the Mets must have liked what they saw of Armas in the minors, and re-signed him to a minor league deal. You never know when all of a sudden everything will click for a pitcher, but the fact that he is experiencing Visa problems for the second straight spring doesn’t bode well for him to enjoy any success in 2009.

Luis Ayala, RHP: Ayala started the season in Washington, but was too hittable in a set-up role. Dealt to the Mets in August, he was slightly better, and did have some value down the stretch when he took over the closer role after Billy Wagner got hurt and Aaron Heilman failed. With the Mets’ big bullpen additions, Ayala was no longer needed, and he’s landed in Minnesota.

Damion Easley, 2B: Can you believe it’s now been almost six years since the Tigers released Easley, eating over $14 million in salary in the process? He’s been a part-time player since, but at the age of 39, is still hanging around. In fact, when Castillo was so awful last season, Easley saw more action than normal down the stretch, resulting in 85 hits – his highest total since 2001. Easley no longer has any power, but drew interest from Arizona earlier this offseason. However, he remains without a job, and we know the Mets won’t be asking him back – they’ve moved on by signing Alex Cora to take over Easley’s role.

Orlando Hernandez, RHP: Hernandez’s 2008 season was a disaster as he got a late start to the season because of foot surgery – something that concerned us early in the year when we wondered if he’d be healthy at all. Well, we were bang on, as the injury never healed sufficiently for him to take the mound, and then he opted for season-ending surgery in August to remove a bunion on his big right toe. While his strikeout rate slipped and his command was weak in 2007, Hernandez has always been a consistent winner (lifetime 90-65 mark), so you’d think someone would bite. He’s willing to continue his career as a reliever, but there’s been no interest in him at all.

Pedro Martinez, RHP: Well, Martinez was healthier last year than he was in 2007. There, now that I’ve said something good about his 2008, I can take the gloves off. The dude was simply shelled and his shoulder problems resurfaced in September, keeping him winless for the remainder of the season. This former Expo great wanted to re-sign with the Mets, but that isn’t expected to happen. Instead, Martinez will use the WBC as a platform to try to generate interest as he seeks a 2009 contract.

Ramon Martinez, 2B: Thanks to injuries and ineffective at Triple-A last season, I wondered whether this vet was done altogether. He wound up in the Met system and after a September call-up, he actually saw some time as the starting second baseman in New York. And although he hit decently, this spoke more to Castillo’s ineffectiveness rather than Martinez’s prowess. At any rate, the Mets liked what they saw enough to re-sign him to a minor league deal, but I expect him to again spend plenty of his time at Triple-A.

Trot Nixon, OF: Since his career year in 2003, Nixon’s slugging percentage has dropped five straight seasons, and after last season’s debacle – hernia surgery limited him to a mere 35 less-than-impressive at bats – he looks old before his time. Nixon started the season in the Arizona system and hit well at Triple-A, but was dealt to the Mets when they were dealing with a rash of OF injuries. Of course, he soon joined that mess, getting hurt himself. The Brewers have signed Nixon and he’ll compete for the final outfield spot in Milwaukee. He probably has an edge for the job because he’s a lefty, but man, has his career ever gone downhill steadily.

Oliver Perez, LHP: Perez was unable to consolidate his great 2007 rebound season, setting a career high in walks in 2008 while also experiencing a decline in his K rate. The upshot of his inconsistency was one-third less wins (just 10 after a career-best 15 in 2007). Regardless, the Mets re-signed him for three years and $36 million, a deal that could be awful if Perez starts to revert to his 2006 form. However, it could be a steal if the work that Johan Santana is doing with him to make him a more consistent pitcher pays off. The Mets need Perez to return to the 15-win range for them to have a shot at the playoffs; with one of the best lefties in the game in Perez’s corner, there’s a good chance that may happen. I’m issuing a sleeper alert on this still-just-27-year-old southpaw.

Ricardo Rincon, LHP: Rincon missed most of the 2007 season because of Tommy John surgery, and he worked his way back by pitching in the Mexican League this season before the Mets gave him a look. He earned a September call-up and pitched well in limited action. He’s still a free agent, however, and at the age of 38, looks just about done.

Matt Wise, RHP: When the Mets signed him last offseason, we actually thought this was a wise move. Unfortunately, an arm injury delayed the start of his season, and when he returned, he was far too hittable, suggesting that he wasn’t quite 100 per cent. Sure enough, after just eight appearances, the shoulder started acting up, ultimately leading him to shut it down for the season in August. He’s still a free agent, and will likely remain as such until it’s clear he’s healthy.

Next: We’ll drive 100 miles down the Jersey Turnpike and the I-95 to Philadelphia, to check in the offseason happenings of the World Champion Phillies.

The Indiana Pacers showed modest improvement in 2007-08, but this year has been a bit of a disappointment thanks to an awful start that buried the team. Believe it or not, with three wins in their past four games, the Pacers are actually over .500 (14-13) since the start of 2009, but injuries to All-Star Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy and Jeff Foster (who returned Sunday) have ripped a whole in the starting five. It could be an ugly finish in Indy. Then again, this isn’t the first time this season that the team suddenly starting chalking up Ws with the deck stacked against it.

Granger’s foot injury will cost him as many as two more weeks; Dunleavy could be just plain Dun for the season in what’s essentially been a completely lost year for him after last season’s breakout campaign.

The team’s overall record is completely underwhelming, yet somehow, the Pacers are the only NBA club to post wins over the Lakers, Celtics, Cavs and Magic this season. The up-tempo offensive system under coach Jim O’Brien continues to show improvements, but defensively, this team has been in free fall for a few seasons. Good defensive efforts have been few and far between, and until the team develops some kind of defensive consistency, it will be hard pressed to take the next step and become a playoff contender in the East.

Of course, if they could win a bit more often than seven times in 30 tries on the road, that would be a good start. At home, Indy has been tough to beat; away from Conseco, they’ve barely been a match for a high school team.

After pulling off the win against Chicago Sunday (despite going 11 minutes without a FG during the second half), Indy is now just two games back of the Bulls, but sans Granger and Dunleavy, it’s hard to see the Pacers escaping the Central cellar. But as I mentioned, this team seems to rise to the occasion when its backs are against the wall. When Granger is out, Indy is 5-1; when both Granger and Dunleavy are sidelined, the Pacers are 4-1. What’s the deal with that?

They travel to MSG to take on the Knicks Monday night, a team that’s been struggling recently, but plays pretty well at home. Indy had held its own lately, vaulting over Charlotte recently (giving themselves a chance to pass New York with a win Monday), and the playoffs are still a possibility (hey, it’s the East!), but again, without their two main scoring options, it’s going to be a very tough haul to expect this recent winning to continue down the stretch.

With the two big guns out, Troy Murphy has moved into a primary scoring role, and he responded in a huge way on Sunday, canning 8-of-16 from the field and 8-of-9 from the line for a season-best 27 points. He drained a trio of treys, hauled in 14 boards (that’s 33 double-doubles for the season, just four shy of his career high), dropped three dimes and pitched in with a steal. Murphy owners are going to enjoy the next few weeks. He’s already been on fire in February, averaging 18 PPG, but now you can expect even more. Murphy’s having a superb season, averaging a career-high 11.5 RPG and shooting a career-best 46.4 per cent from the field. Hell, he’s even draining 80 per cent of his free throws for just the second time in his eight-year career.

T.J. Ford also figures to see an uptick offensively, and Sunday, he came through with 19 points, helping to ice things by scoring nine in the final four minutes — a stretch during which Chicago simply couldn’t stop the speedy PG from getting to the basket. He added eight boards, two steals and a 3-pointer that gave Indy the lead for good, all in 37 minutes of action. Yes, I’d definitely like to see more than 11 assists over the past three games from a point guard, but before this recent skid, Ford had actually been doing a better job of distributing the rock of late. He’s always injury prone, but is just one game from matching his games played total from all of last season, so that’s been huge. What else has been big for Ford this season is his more aggressive play, leading to a career-best 4.5 trips to the charity stripe per game — two more per game than he had in his last season with Toronto. Small wonder he’s enjoying his finest offensive season to date.

We slagged Indy’s defense before, so we suppose it deserves some props for Sunday’s effort. Chicago scored just 14 points in the paint all game — the lowest number by an opponent all season long for the Pacers.

As mentioned above, Foster was back Sunday after missing five games with a wonky back. He came off the bench behind Roy Hibbert, and didn’t play much, but it’s probably just a matter of time before he starts seeing bigger minutes and takes the starting job back — unless Indy goes into the tank and falls out the race, at which point it would behoove the Pacers to run with the rook down the stretch. Foster looked rusty, shooting just 2-of-6 for only four points and five boards, but he did chip in with a steal. He looked good back in November, but he’s been slipping the past few months, so I’m not sure how much value he’ll have unless you’re super desperate for a big man. Foster has always been one of those players that just teeters on the edge of fantasy value, as he’s been a starter about half the time over his career, but just never quite gets enough minutes on a consistent basis to warrant keeping on your roster for longer than brief stretches during a season.

At one point on Sunday, the Pacers missed 13 straight shots. And yet, they came away with the win in the end. Go figure.

Spring Training is underway and we’ll have actual boxscores to peruse come Wednesday! How sweet is that? With that in mind, we push forward with our Free Agency report. Miss the other sections of this near-legendary tome? No problem-o, dude. We got you covered:

American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X.

National League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII and VIII.

Milwaukee Brewers

After showing nice progress in 2007, the Milwaukee Brewers were one of the feel good stories of 2008, taking another significant leap forward en route to 90 wins, the NL Wild Card and the team’s first playoff appearance in 26 years.

Fueled by the NL’s second best pitching staff, which was bolstered by the mid-season acquisition of C.C. Sabathia (who was absolutely dominant in Sausage City) the Brewers spent most of the summer blazing towards the playoffs. Sure, a late season slump almost cost them that shot and it took a win on the final day of the season to wrap it up, but after an entire generation of Brewer fans had suffered through a postseason drought, no one was complaining. Yes, the Brewers were dispatched fairly easily in four games in the NLDS by the eventual World Series champion Phillies, but the message was sent that this team was no longer a doormat for the rest of the NL.

Unfortunately, the offseason took a big chunk of those good feelings away. Gone are twin aces Sabathia and Ben Sheets, replaced by Braden Looper. Uh, yeah.

Team owner Mark Attanasio believes that the team is tapped out salary wise after taking on the Sabathia contract and also adding Ray Durham in a mid-season deal and then enduring an expensive offseason that included new contracts for Prince Fielder (who has slimmed down, but has a fatter wallet thanks to a two-year, $18 million deal) and Corey Hart ($3.25 M), not to mention Looper, who could earn as much as $12.25 million over the next two years.

On the plus side financially, after wasting $10 million on Eric Gagne last season for a seriously ugly campaign, the Brew Crew was able to bring him back on a cheap, incentive-laden minor league contract for 2009. Of course, it’s going to take a hell of a lot of work before Gagne manages to earn himself another late-inning role as he’s fallen pretty low down the pecking order in the Milwaukee pen, assuming he even makes the team.

One wonders whether the Brewers (12th in hitting, but fifth in home runs last season) will have enough offense to withstand the weakening of their pitching staff this season. Third baseman Bill Hall, who has been sliding downhill for a couple of seasons now anyways, is dealing with a calf injury, and will get a late start on his spring. This does not bode well for a rebound. And while that may be addition by subtraction in some people’s minds, and perhaps serve only to expedite the dawn of the Mat Gamel era, the uber prospect is also hurting this spring with a shoulder issue. That leaves Mike Lamb as the main option at the hot corner for now. Yeah, I know…it’s hard not to wet yourself when you hear that.

Free Agents

The Brewers only had 10 free agents to deal with, but with four key hurlers included on this list, the team took a serious hit to its staff and will be very hard pressed to remain among the top pitching teams in the NL. Fortunately, the losses on offense were only to role players.

Russell Branyan, 3B: After starting the season in the minors and then getting hurt in August, Branyan didn’t see much big league action last season, but when he did play he actually put up a decent BA for once and showed enough to earn himself a contract from the Mariners. He’ll participate in what looks like a wide-open competition for the starting first base job in Seattle.

Craig Counsell, 3B: Counsell saw less action in 2008, but he knows how to get on base and has excellent strike zone judgment, two ingredients that led Milwaukee to re-sign him. It’s Counsell’s flexibility that makes him valuable, at least for a real baseball team. He actually proved useful when Rickie Weeks went down in June, and could get into the 3B mix this spring with all the injuries Milwaukee is dealing with. He’s no spring chicken, but Counsell proved he still has a bit of life left in him when used judiciously as a role player.

Ray Durham, 2B: Durham was enjoying a strong season with the Giants, doing a way better job of getting on base than he had in years. Traded to Milwaukee in July, he hit well for Milwaukee and continued to exhibit good patience. Although not a productive, full-time player any longer, Durham still has very good gap power and his recovery in OBP last season was really startling. He’s still a free agent, and KC is a possible suitor, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Durham had to settle for a minor league deal as no one is really desperate for keystone corner help right now.

Eric Gagne, RHP: Gagne was signed to take over at closer, but he was unable to stay healthy, was tremendously ineffective and ultimately proved that he wasn’t the answer, losing his job. As mentioned, Milwaukee has brought him back for much less money and he’ll have to fight for a job with plenty of bullpen candidates in town.

Gabe Kapler, OF: Kapler was a big surprise early in the season, but ultimately faded back into his traditional extra outfielder role. Still, he did enough as a part-timer to earn a contract from defending AL Champs Tampa Bay, where he will compete for the starting right field job.

Mike Lamb, 3B: It didn’t surprise us at all when Lamb flopped in Minnesota, losing playing time and then getting the boot outright. Milwaukee signed him late in the season, and he was even worse while playing in Beer City. For some reason, The Brewers re-signed him and now, thanks to the rash of injuries to their third basemen, he could factor in as an important piece in the early going. And that’s just plain scary.

Guillermo Mota, RHP: Mota bounced back nicely after his awful 2007 season in which he had to deal with a drug-related suspension. He upped his K rate, was harder to hit and offered some value in NL-only leagues thanks to his wins and holds. The Dodgers opted to sign the inconsistent reliever, hoping that returning to the site of his best seasons will help revitalize him further.

C.C. Sabathia, LHP: Sabathia got off to an awful start with the Tribe last season, but turned things around and proved to be an incredible addition for Milwaukee at the deadline, sharpening his control and giving the team an innings-eating stud it so desperately needed to help make it over the hump and into the playoffs. Unfortunately, he priced himself way out of the Brew Crew’s price range with this career season, landing in New York when the Yankees opened the vaults for the big lefty.

Ben Sheets, RHP: Sheets turned in a fabulous season, but the wear and tear on his arm (he matched his career high in complete games) once again took its toll, and a two-year offer from Texas fell through when it was discovered he had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow. He’s since undergone surgery which will likely keep him out until the All-Star break and will necessitate him signing a cheaper deal that will include incentive bonuses.

Brian Shouse, LHP: Shouse gave up more homers than usual, but thanks to his vultured wins, holds and nice ERA, he enjoyed a strong season, dominating southpaws to the tune of a .180 BAA. The Rays, looking to bolster their bullpen, signed him a week and a half ago.

Next: We’ll head east to check in on the New York Mets, who had a boatload of free agents to deal with this offseason.

It’s been a rough spell for Daniel Alfredsson, as first photos of him wearing a pink dress in Las Vegas find their way onto the inter-tubes, then his jaw goes boom. However, his Sens are still kicking since sending Craig Hartsburg into the abyss. Part of the reason for their semi-success? Antoine Vermette remembered he’s a pretty skilled hockey player and popped in seven points in his last five games.

In case you haven’t heard the latest news: Brad Richards = hurt (broken wrist, out up to two months), Mike Richards = awesome (five points against the Sabres on Thursday night), and Atlanta Thrashers = confused (scoring boatloads of goals when nothing matters…hell, even RotoRob noticed that one). Just wanted to get that out of the way.

The Pittsburgh Penguins got a shot in the arm (the return of Sergei Gonchar) and a kick in the ass (new coach Dan Bylsma), though they haven’t somehow reversed time to turn back into the 2007-08 world beaters they were last season. Gonchar’s return is significant though, as it should improve the woeful Pittsburgh power play and cause a trickle-down effect on the rest of the Penguin blueliners. As for Bylsma? He’s employing a more aggressive system than the ever-cautious Michel Therrien. We’ll see how long that sticks depending on performance, but right now that’s good news for whoever plays with Sidney what’s-his-name and Evgeni something-or-other. You know, those two franchise players that are supposed to make Pittsburgh the best team in the history of time.

In fantasy news that doesn’t really matter, Claude Lemieux — he of the glorious China-and-back return — scored his first point of the season. And it only took him 10 games. It’s a little different from Mario Lemieux’s return in 2000, ain’t it?

Vesa Toskala has transformed from starting goalie to walking sieve, so young Justin Pogge’s being given a chance (look for that Toskala robot in the new Transformers movie). Since nothing’s working in Toronto, it’s time to hand over the reins to the kids. Not that that’s always a good idea, but hey, you can’t live in the shadow of Mats Sundin forever, right?

Speaking of Mats, he teased us with thoughts of “He’s not just a poker player!” when the big Swede put up sevens points in three games. Since then? Two points in five games. Seven…three…two…five…hey, if he gets six points in his next four games, Sundin will have a straight! Of course, Mats endorses poker sites for entertainment purposes only, so he wouldn’t win any money.

Do you believe in the Florida Panthers? They just keep winning and winning despite not having a single guy over the 50-point plateau. The closest guy they have in this scoring-by-committee bunch is Stephen Weiss, but of his 41 points, only 10 are goals. That’s an acceptable ratio if you’re, say, Joe Thornton, but for the purposes of fantasy games that don’t involve Daniel Alfredsson in a pink dress, that’s thumbs down for a team leader. Want to ride the surge of the Panthers? Stick with the defense or Tomas Vokoun (according to Yahoo!, Vokoun’s still available in 22 per cent of its fantasy leagues).

The Week Ahead

• On Saturday afternoon, the struggling Habs (who are so desperate these days that they’ve sent Alexei Kovalev home to get his shit together) look to snap a three-game losing skid at home against Ottawa, which is making a bit of a push to try to get back in the race. On Thursday, Carey Price was again awful for Montreal, which is now free falling in the Eastern standings. Sacrebleu!
• Saturday night, the Bruins travel to Florida where they will eat dinner at 4 p.m. and then take on the surging Panthers in what could be a possible first round preview. As good as Florida has been at home this season (16-8-5), Boston is even better than that on the road (21-6-5). That’s pretty damn impressive.
• Speaking of afternoon hockey, on Sunday (on national TV, no less), we get the revitalized Penguins in Washington to take on the still red-hot Capitals. Pittsburgh is desperately trying to work its way back into the Eastern Conference playoff race, while Washington continues to chip away at Boston’s conference lead.

The Atlanta Thrashers, a team that’s mostly been a thrashee as opposed to a thrasher this season, have suddenly woken up, winning three of their past four including the first two games of their four-game Western road swing – their longest road trek of the season. Where has this been all season? And why the hell would it emerge during perhaps the toughest stretch the team faces all year long?

The Thrashers have really been in free fall since the 2006-07 season, when they approached 100 points, won their division and made the one and only playoff appearance in franchise history. Last season was a fiasco, as the team’s offense and defense where both near the bottom of the league. In fact, they finished tied for last in goals against average. This season, while the offense has bounced back, the goaltending has been even more horrific, and if it weren’t for the laughable Leafs, Atlanta would be dead last in GAA. Despite the improved scoring, the Thrashers have completely bottomed out, and currently have the second worst record in the entire NHL.

So now that the pressure of making the playoffs is a thing of the past – Atlanta has already started focusing on the future by dealing away veteran defenseman Mathieu Schneider to Montreal for a pair of draft picks – the team is putting up some Ws. The Thrashers are now closing in on Tampa Bay as they attempt to crawl out of the division cellar. And Thursday night, they could easily continue the roll as they face off against the NHL’s coldest team in Phoenix, losers of six straight at home.

However, expecting the club to continue winning the way they have this week – 8-4 over Anaheim and 7-6 in a shootout over LA – is a stretch. I mean, come on, the last time the Ducks gave up eight goals against anyone was March 21, 2001, the second longest current streak in the league. Atlanta better tighten up its lackluster defensive play if it hopes to continue to show improvements down the stretch. But one bright sign has been the play of rookie defensemen Zach Bogosian and Nathan Oystrick, who have been paired together since the Schneider deal. These two youngsters (well, Oystrick isn’t that much of a youngster, but he’s still a veritable NHL neophyte) have been drawing rave reviews, and Bogosian’s emergence is definitely something to watch. He logged three assists and went +2 in the win over LA, drawing some fantasy traction in the past couple of days. If you’re in a deep league, it may be time to consider last season’s No. 3 overall pick. He’s been rushed to the Show, but for a good reason. This 18-year-old has fans around the league buzzing.

With the trade deadline coming soon and Atlanta clearly falling under the seller umbrella, more house cleaning may be in order soon for the Thrashers. The most likely candidates to be moved now that Schneider has been dispatched are Ilya Kovalchuk and Colby Armstrong, the later of which is enjoying his finest season, and appears headed for his first 20-goal campaign. A move to a contender could definitely provide a nice boost for Armstrong, making him a waiver wire possibility. If your league is deep enough that you can stash him, now might be the time to consider it. Otherwise, wait and see how this situation plays out. One prominent rumour has the Leafs offering a package centred around Nik Antropov that will land both Kovalchuk and Armstrong in Toronto.

As we alluded to, expecting these kind of offensive fireworks from the Thrashers on a regular basis is unwise. Consider that they have potted 13 goals in the first two games of this road trip. Then consider that in the previous eight games, they had totaled just 12 goals. Can you say unsustainable? And even with the goal explosion, the Thrashers still almost found a way to blow it against the Kings on Monday. They frittered away a 6-3 lead, allowing LA to score three times over the final 12:30 to force overtime before the Thrashers pulled out the two points in the shootout.

After topping 50 goals for the second time in three seasons in 2007-08, Kovalchuk has been a major disappointment this year. In fact, he’s been so bad that he earned a not-so-coveted RotoRob Award as our 2008 Fantasy Dud of the Year. However, perhaps the thought of escaping Atlanta has him frothing at the mouth, because he sure looks like a different player lately. He’s scored goals in five straight games, totaling eight scores with three assists during this stretch. The team’s leading scorer (29 goals, 61 points) has five goals and two assists in the last two games alone. Can you can blazing? Kovalchuk is suddenly back on pace to nearly match last season’s point total and is definitely upping his trade value with each passing game. There’s talk he could wind up in Boston, although the Bruins aren’t known for bringing in high-priced talent, and at $7.5 million per year for this season and next, Kovalchuk is one of the top-paid players in the NHL.

Another tremendously hot Thrasher is Slava Kozlov. He potted a pair of assists Monday to run his point-scoring streak to five games, totaling two goals and five assists during this run. Kozlov was slumping for a while, but is clearly past that, and he’s someone we identified as a major target should Kovalchuk be sent packing. The 16-year veteran, who passed the 800 career point mark with his two helpers Monday, stands to be the stud in Atlanta once Kovalchuk is dealt, so if he’s still unowned in your league, you better add him now.

Centre Todd White’s finest NHL season has continued, as he’s got three points in the last two games. His goal Monday was his 15th of the season, already more than he scored all of last season. He has a good chance of recording his first ever 70-point season and you’ve got to figure this is another veteran who stands to gain more responsibility after the trade deadline. Given that he’s currently owned in just over a third of the leagues out there, White makes a great player to target.

Alright, the push is on to hammer the rest of these reports out as we gear up for the release of the 2009 RotoRob MLB Draft Kit. If you’ve missed any of the previous parts of this series, catch up here:

American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X.

National League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers only made slight strides over 2007, but it was enough to win the NL West and come within three wins of the World Series. But let’s face it – without pulling the trigger on the Manny Ramirez deal, there’s no way this team earns its third straight winning season, never mind makes the postseason.

Of course, the fate of Manny is still very much up in the air, and if he bolts, the Dodgers will go back to the substandard offensive team they were before he arrived. This is a team that finished 13th in the NL in runs and slugging, but would have been much worse had Ramirez not looked like Ted Williams over the final couple months of the season. There were just too many passengers in this lineup. Jeff Kent looked like a shell of himself, and thankfully has opted for the rocking chair; Juan Pierre was simply awful, managing just 13 extra-base hits all season long, finally being reduced to a part-time role.

Unfortunately, the team has done very little to improve itself offensively, making the re-signing of Ramirez all the more vital.

Pitching was definitely this team’s strength in 2008 as they paced the NL in ERA, OPS against and WHIP. Hong-Chih Kuo was superb as a spot starter/long reliever; Cory Wade was spectacular out of the bullpen; Derek Lowe enjoyed a tremendous season, but has since departed, landing in Atlanta and leaving young Chad Billingsley as the de facto ace for the Dodgers.

Lowe’s departure, combined with the retirement of Greg Maddux and the dispatching of Brad Penny has left the Dodger staff potentially thin and rather fragile to an extent. This could prove to be the team’s undoing, although fortunately, they reside in a weak division where 84 wins was good enough to take home a title last season.

No. 2 starter Hiroki Kuroda dealt with shoulder problems last season, but so far this spring, the news is good. Clayton Kershaw, still not old enough to drink, will be asked to shoulder a heavy load. It would be a huge bonus if Jason Schmidt, finally pain free, can emerge with the fifth starter job, or if Jeff Weaver, added on a minor league deal, can rediscover the form that allowed him to win 27 games with the Dodgers in 2003 and 2004. And Randy Wolf is also back, another constant injury risk, but an arm that can definitely help if he can make 30 starts.

Closer Takashi Saito is gone, and while Jonathan Broxton can clearly handle the role (notwithstanding some hiccups in the playoffs that turned the NLCS in the Phillies’ favour), the trickle down effect will hurt the overall depth of the Dodger pen.

The Dodgers had to deal with a major-league high 13 free agents this offseason – a hell of a lot for a team seeking its first NL Championship since 1988.

One other piece of bad news for you Dodger fans, especially the superstitious types: LA has only made the playoffs in even numbered years since 2004. The youth movement is definitely underway in LA, but this team may have to take a step back before it can take another step forward.

Joe Beimel, LHP: Despite coming off his finest big league season, Beimel remains unsigned. He was a bit more hittable in 2008 than he’s been in a couple of years, but with the lusting after of lefty relievers by most teams this offseason, he was expected to get a multi-year deal. Now, he may have to head back to the Dodgers, where he lost in arbitration in 2007, perhaps just for one year.

Gary Bennett, C: Former juicer Bennett missed most of 2008 with an injury, not that anyone ever notices Russell Martin’s backup very often. He’s still out there, and despite his lack of action last year, I suspect Bennett will land a back-up role somewhere.

Casey Blake, 3B: Blake was having a fine year with the Tribe, but he struggled once he arrived in LA after the Dodgers gave up a couple of prospects to acquire him. Still, he cut his strikeout rate last season and gets on base at a decent clip and with such a weak market at the hot corner, the Dodgers opted to re-sign him for three years and $17 million.

Rafael Furcal, SS: Furcal was having a superb year, but his season ended extremely early, causing him to earn consideration for a 2008 RotoRob Award as the Fantasy Bust of the Year. Still, the Dodgers saw enough to bring him back, despite fierce competition from the A’s and Braves, the later of which actually thought they had signed him. Assuming the Dodgers don’t bring Manny back, Furcal will be counted on to spur the team’s little ball attack with his blazing speed.

Nomar Garciaparra, SS: He remains injury prone, but is a great team player, and when Furcal went down, Garciaparra shifted over to short for a while and actually emerged as a decent wire pick for a while. The Phillies have made him an offer, but his days of being able to handle a full-time job look done.

Jason Johnson, RHP: Despite his propensity to surrender too many long balls, Johnson held his own in a spot starter/long man role while he was with the Dodgers. A couple of years ago, Johnson had to go to Japan to find his way back to the majors, however, this year, the Yankees will give him a shot, penning him to a minor league deal.

Jeff Kent, 2B: Kent’s knee woes did him in and a walk rate that had been declining for the past couple of seasons really helped usher in the end for this 16-year-vet, who retired as a lifetime .290 hitter and one of the greatest power-hitting second basemen ever.

Derek Lowe, RHP: The loss of Lowe, whose control was impeccable last year, will really hurt. D-Lowe will look to propel the Braves back into contention this season.

Greg Maddux, RHP: Maddux was enjoying a fine year with the Padres, but as we predicted, he was dealt at the deadline back to the Dodgers, with whom he spent part of the 2006 season with. The Professor wasn’t quite as effective once he landed in LA, giving up more homers than normal, and then he decided to call it a day after 355 career wins. That’ll do, I guess.

Chan Ho Park, RHP: Park put himself back on the map with a fine season as a spot starter/long reliever in LA, becoming one of the Dodgers’ better reclamation projects. He looked like a serious retread back in 2006 when the Mets gave him a shot, but Park is now a legitimate candidate to battle for the fifth starter job on the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, who signed him for one year and $2.5 million.

Brad Penny, RHP: Penny dealt with some shoulder problems last season, looking good upon his return before getting rocked in his next start and landing back on the DL. He made it back for two appearances in September before shutting it down for the season. Now, Penny is part of a potent Red Sox rotation, and the former All-Star will try to prove last season was a blip.

Manny Ramirez, OF: Once Man-Ram arrived from Boston, he almost single-handedly turned the Dodgers season around. He was enjoying a solid year for the BoSox, but as a Dodger, he was absolutely sick, batting almost .400 and showing incredible power, patience and plate discipline. However, where Ramirez winds up is still anyone’s guess. The dude has already turned down a $25 million offer for one year from the Dodgers. Could division rival San Francisco swoop in and steal Manny? If the Giants do so, it could swing the balance in the NL West. The Dodgers don’t seem to be in any kind of panic to re-sign the future Hall of Famer, and that could cost them.

Mark Sweeney, 1B: As we discussed early last season, bringing Sweeney back last year didn’t work out so well. He looks like he’s done as he hasn’t even had any bites this offseason. Time for the 39-year-old to follow Kent’s model, perhaps.

Next: We’ll head northeast a ways and report on the Milwaukee Brewers’ offseason.

While the Chicago Bulls have ridden a better offense to slight improvements over last season, they have failed to garner any real momentum this season. In fact, judging by their month-by-month record (1-1 in October, 7-8 in November, 6-9 in December, 7-9 in January and 2-3 so far in February), this team is maddeningly and consistently middling. The Bulls tend to have a nasty habit of finding ways to lose, and turnovers have been a problem. Sure, they are good enough to be within striking distance of a playoff spot after missing out on the postseason last year, but it’s also a small wonder why GM John Paxson is rumoured to be ready to resign from his post.

The last time we checked in on the Bulls, it was pretty well the same story, but the good news is it won’t take a big push to make a real difference for them given the middling nature of the Eastern Conference. They enter the break just two games back of the eighth place Bucks, setting up a big game in Milwaukee on Wednesday to kick off the unofficial second half of the season. Despite losing three of its last five, Chicago has been holding its own lately, keeping pace with both the Bucks and Nets and even pulling within striking distance of the slipping Pistons. Chicago has recently passed the slumping Knicks and has managed to put a wee bit of distance between itself and the rest of the Eastern Conference also-rans.

Point guard Derrick Rose, the No. 1 overall pick last year, has proved to be all that in his rookie season, spurring a nice improvement in Chicago’s offensive game. There remains plenty of room for growth here, as it’s still a somewhat middling offense, but at least they are headed in the right direction. The defense, however, is another story. In two short seasons, the Bulls have gone from having one of the truly elite defenses in the NBA under defensive whiz Scott Skiles to being saddled with one of the worst Ds under new head man Vinny Del Negro. And this, is a nutshell, is why the team’s overall improvements this season are extremely modest.

Tyrus Thomas, whom we recommended last month, has been living up to the hype lately, entering the break with a streak of nine straight double-digit scoring games, including five double-doubles. While the recent turnover binge (11 in the past two games) hurts, Thomas has been providing superb overall value, and needs to be picked up if he’s still out there on the wire in your league. Given plenty of PT with Drew Gooden out, Thomas has shot the ball much better this month, and he’s put it all together, proving he can help you in points, boards, blocks, steals and FG percentage. He’s avoided a major injury so far this season and has taken a big step forward as a force on the glass. Even when Gooden returns (although surgery remains a possibility there), I’m expecting Thomas to maintain his value. Sure, he’s still learning on the job, and has come under fire for his missed defensive assignments at times, but the upside remains huge for Thomas.

Ben Gordon also enters the break on a real run, averaging 28.7 PPG in the last three after shooting 10-of-21 from the field and 14-of-16 from the field for a game-high 34 points on Thursday. He slipped in January, but has ridden some hot perimeter shooting (he’s sinking 48 per cent of his five attempted treys per game) this month to a stellar 25 PPG in February. For the season, Gordon is now up to 45 per cent from the field, a nice improvement over last season’s effort, and that’s helped him return to the 20+ PPG territory. Better yet, he’s re-emerged as a serious clutch player, saving his best for late in the game.

As mentioned previously, Rose has been tremendously impressive, doing enough to earn consideration for a 2008 RotoRob Award as Fantasy Rookie of the Year. There’s some concern about the amount of pressure on him as a rookie PG, but he was showing no signs of hitting the wall as we reached the break, averaging 21 PPG over the past four games and shooting particularly well (58.6 per cent) in the last two games. Rose hasn’t done quite as well getting to the line in the past couple of months, but he’s compensated for that by shooting better once he does make it to the charity stripe. Despite the huge competition in such a phenomenal rookie class, something tells me that the Skills Competition trophy won’t be the last piece of hardware Rose hoists this season.

One Bull we expected to be a potentially useful reserve this season is Thabo Sefolosha, but his PT has been on the decline big time of late. And given that he only played six minutes Thursday yet managed to commit the turnover that led to the game-winning shot for Miami, I’m not expecting Sefolosha to carve out more action for himself any time soon. He’s been discussed in trade rumours, and at this point, that’s the only chance he’ll have to emerge with fantasy value this season.

Andres Nocioni, on the other hand, has provided some fantasy value off the bench for Chicago. We recommended him just before the New Year, when he was getting hot, and recently, he’s been on a similar streak, scoring double digits in points in six straight games until Thursday. Be aware that Nocioni’s PT has dipped the past couple of months, but he’s maintaining his value right now by shooting extremely well from beyond the arc. Once his percentages normalize, he won’t be nearly as useful. The fact is, Nocioni’s value has been in decline the past couple of seasons, as he’s become a less and less important part of the Bull offense. Once a key component of the team’s long-term rebuilding plan, Nocioni would now probably best be served by starting over elsewhere.

Happy Valentine’s Day to all our readers. Today’s a good day to take a break from your sports viewing and take your wife/significant other out for dinner. Maybe you’ll even get porked tonight if you’re good!

Anyways, we’ve been concentrating on basketball and hockey lately, but with February well entrenched and Spring Training workouts already underway, it’s time to switch gears and get back to our Free Agency Report. Previous parts – American League Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII , IX and X.

National League Part I, II, III, IV, V and VI.

Houston Astros

After bottoming out in 2007 with 72 wins, the Houston Astros rode a huge second half to 86 wins last season, their 15th winning campaign in the last 17 years. This was a truly amazing feat, given that the team was 47-56 on July 26. But a huge finish — a 39-19 mark from that point on, despite a crushing five-game losing skid in mid-September – allowed Houston to claw its way back into the wild card race.

It’s conceivable with some fine-tuning to the rotation, this team could take a run at the NL Wild Card and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2005.

But first the Astros have some issues to sort out, not the least of which is what in the hell is going to happen to Miguel Tejada after he admitted lying to congress in connection with his testimony in 2005 about the use of performance-enhancing drugs, an area we covered extensively in our series on The Mitchell Report. He could face up to a year in jail, but most expect a much lighter sentence, likely just probation. So as we write, you can expect Tejada to be manning shortstop for the Astros on Opening Day.

The Astros did very little this offseason to improve the offense, despite talk that they were thinking of making a run at Adam Dunn. Led by Jose Valverde, the bullpen is solid, but as discussed, the rotation needs work.

Houston did add Mike Hampton to the rotation, but is it realistic to expect him to log more than 20 starts? Swingman Chris Sampson made 11 starts last year, and will be considered for a rotation spot, but is clearly better suited to be a reliever. The Astros could really use one more solid starter to add to this mix.

And given that they had five free agents to deal with this offseason, Houston had its work cut out for itself as it attempted to build on last season’s rebound. Fortunately, it re-signed the two key members of its bullpen who were free agents, allowing the rest of this class to head west.

Brad Ausmus, C: Never much of an offensive talent, Ausmus was reduced to a role player for Houston in 2008, losing whatever slim fantasy value he had. He used to at least see plenty of PT, not that this made him attractive, but a career worst 15 runs? Yikes. Ausmus has finally left the Astros, signing with the Dodgers, and leaving his main competitors last season – Humberto Quintero and J.R. Towles to battle for the starting gig.

Doug Brocail, RHP: Brocail’s command was superb last year, so despite bottom line results that weren’t quite in line with what he achieved with the Padres in 2007 – a fact that didn’t surprise us — he remains a top set-up man. Houston obviously recognized this when it re-signed him for another year plus an option for 2010, bringing back a key component of a solid bullpen that again looks like it will be a team strength.

LaTroy Hawkins, RHP: We already documented how poorly Hawkins pitched with the Yankees, but everything changed when he was dealt to the Astros. His command suddenly did a 180, and he settled in as one of the top set-up men on the ‘Stros. Small wonder they wasted little time in re-signing him this offseason, so he’ll reprise his role in the pen behind Valverde and Brocail.

Mark Loretta, 2B: Loretta showed solid gap power as a key member of the Astro bench last season, and drew the attention of a few teams before earning himself a similar role on the Dodgers this year. Combined with Ausmus, that’s two key role players the Dodgers pilfered from the Astros. Throw in Randy Wolf (below) and you’ve got yourself the Los Angeles Astros.

Randy Wolf, LHP: As we expected, Wolf didn’t survive the trade deadline last year, coming over from San Diego to Houston, and his solid late-season work helped spur the Astro second-half run. Finally healthy, Wolf would have been a good arm to bring back, but Houston was unable to outbid the Dodgers, losing yet another of their free agents to LA. This one may hurt, especially since Houston also lost out in its attempts to lure Braden Looper to town.

Next: We’ll head west and check in on the Los Angeles Astros, er, Dodgers.

RotoRob was asked to guest on RotoExperts.com’s RotoRadio: Hoops Edition radio show Monday night, and Tom Lorenzo, Hector Castro and I engaged in some spirited fantasy basketball chat. All that was missing was a fireside and some brandy.

What type of gun should you use to off yourself now that Al Jefferson is done for the season? Are Ramon Sessions and D.J. Augustin for real? And will the Geico lizard finally get slam-dunked at the All-Star Game this weekend?

We covered all of these issues in the show and tackled the real burning questions that face the fantasy owner on the precipice of the second half of the NBA schedule. Ready for some lively hoops chatter? Check it out here.

What the hell is wrong with the Los Angeles Clippers? Badly beaten up, and just plain beaten down, this team has nothing to look forward to except the lottery, yet suddenly – in the midst of a brutal seven-game road trip – they decide to go on a run. Saturday, the Clippers absolutely molested the Hawks, just one night after bitchslapping the Grizzlies. Are you trying to hurt your chance at Blake Griffin, people?

Don’t look now, but this two-game winning streak has vaulted the Clippers out of the Western Conference cellar and past the Kings. The Clips finish their road trip Tuesday in Charlotte against the struggling Bobcats before heading home for a date against the Knicks, who have cooled off tremendously. It’s not inconceivable that LA will run the table between now and the All-Star break. And if that’s the case, the Clippers will likely catch the 13th place Thunder, which is also playing decently lately.

Hell, this is a team that had dropped 11 straight games away from Staples Center before Friday. Now, it’s won two in a row without the need for home cooking, improving its road mark to 7-19. And it’s one thing to beat Memphis, but Atlanta? The Hawks haven’t exactly been tearing it up lately, but are still one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Get this: the last time the Clippers put together back-to-back wins was December 16 (26 freaking games ago). Break up the Clippers, baby!

One thing that has confused me about this winning streak: where the hell has this shooting been all season for the Clippers? We are talking about the NBA’s worst shooting team, yet they managed to drain 59 per cent against Memphis (a middling defensive team) and sink 49-of-86 (57 per cent) against Atlanta, which isn’t a bad defensive team either. Saturday, Marcus Camby drained 6-of-7 for the second time in three games; Al Thornton continued his recent hot streak by canning 13-of-22; Ricky Davis, who has also found his stroke the past couple of games, nailed 4-of-7 off the bench. Charlotte isn’t quite as good defensively as the Hawks, so maybe we’ll see more of this on Tuesday.

Could Davis be worth a pickup now? He scored a dozen points Saturday (thanks to four 3-pointers) while adding three assists, two rebounds and a steal. Buckets has been an awful disappointment this season, and a knee injury last month didn’t help matters, but he’s now reached double digits in scoring in back-to-back games, providing the Clipper second unit with a much-needed offensive kick in the ass. Davis is starting to see more PT, and if he is regularly receiving 25 minutes or more (and can shoot nearly as well as he has been lately), he can definitely provide a boost for your squad, especially if his outside game – a major bust so far this season – is coming around (and 10 treys in two games suggests it is). It’s worth noting that much of Davis’ production has come in the back-to-back blowout wins, and he might have gotten more burn than normal as a result, yet he’s done enough to deserve extra PT as the sixth man, so see if his minutes remain high in closer games.

Before we scoff at the Clippers’ sudden success, remember that they are almost finally back to full strength after a season-long battle with health issues. The only significant member of the rotation still missing is Chris Kaman, a thorn in my side, and I’m sure plenty of other fantasy owners. The latest report on Kaman still has him on track to return after the All-Star break, leaving us no choice but to be patient. If you’ve held him this long, what the hell else can you do? Pick up JaVale McGee off the wire? Oh wait, I already did that once I learned that Andrew Bogut’s back was conspiring against my team.

You think Zach Randolph is enjoying life back on the West Coast? In 80 games with the Knicks last season and this season, he never once scored 30 points in a game. Yet, despite his injuries, he’s done it five times in just 18 games as a Clipper. We’ll see what happens when (if) Kaman returns, but for now Z-Bo is a scoring machine.

Baron Davis has struggled offensively in recent games, but he’s still facilitating – dropping eight dimes for the second straight game.

Back when we recommended him as a wire pickup in November, we suggested that Eric Gordon would experience the normal rookie ups and downs. For the most part, he’s been quite steady, but the return of Randolph has definitely affected Gordon’s touches, as he’s taking an average of six shots less per game so far this month. Hope you sold high when you could. Don’t get me wrong. The kid is still valuable (especially if he keeps shooting as well as he has lately), but Gordon won’t be carrying the team offensively the way he did in January, when he put himself in the thick of the ROY race by averaging 21.9 PPG.

The Philadelphia 76ers, one of the hottest teams in the NBA in January, hadn’t exactly been building on this success during their current seven-game homestand. In fact, heading into action Thursday, the Sixers had dropped two of the first three games of the stand. But Thursday, Philly withstood a late run by the Pacers to snap a two-game losing skid and get back to .500 for the season.

It’s been a season of slight progress for the Sixers, but certainly not to the extent that many had expected. After makes strides offensively last season, the team’s scoring hasn’t developed any more. The defense is slightly better, but again, nothing earth shattering. The Sixers are second in the division, but only because Toronto has tanked this season. They currently hold down the seventh seed in the East and have been inching closer to sixth-place Miami, setting up a big game Saturday night when the Heat comes to town.

Of course, the big news in Sixer Land is that Elton Brand’s shoulder – you know, the one expected to keep him out for a month back before Christmas — has now sidelined the team’s big off-season acquisition for the remainder of the year. He managed to return and play five games last month and one in February, but wasn’t seeing significant enough minutes to really be a fantasy factor, so essentially – from his owners’ standpoint – he has just been a waste of space for almost two months now. Well, at least you can now cut him without fear he’ll come back to bite you.

With Brand out, look for Andre Miller to take a more important role in the offense in the coming weeks. He’s been dropping dimes like mad lately, dishing a dozen Thursday and averaging 8.4 in the past five. But he’s also logging heavy minutes since Brand shut it down. There have been rumours he could be dealt, so that’s something to keep an eye on. Miller hasn’t shot the ball quite as well this season, and that’s a trend that doesn’t seem to be turning around after his 3-for-9 performance Thursday dropped him to 40 per cent for the past three games. As Miller’s touches rise, it appears his FG percentage won’t come along for the ride. Still, I’m sure you’re not complaining about the double-double he dropped Thursday – just his fourth of the season after he racked up 14 last season. Overall, Miller has had a decent season, probably good enough to justify the fourth round pick you likely spent to obtain him, but I’m not sure how much more he’s going to help you now that Brand is done.

Obviously, the other player who will be leaned on more now is Andre Iguodala. Let’s hope the extra touches helps Iggy continue to elevate his game after he endured a very sluggish start to the season. We had the dude pegged as a top 10 forward this year, but despite his recent turnaround, he’s still not playing like a top 15 forward. That could change in the second half, making him an excellent buy-low candidate. He’s been scoring well lately (20 PPG in the past five) and racking up the steals (seven in the past two games), but until Thursday, hadn’t been doing much in the way of boards and assists recently. However, Iguodala just missed out on a triple double – something he hasn’t accomplished in a couple of seasons. He settled for his ninth double-double of the season, which – surprisingly – is a new career high, and we’re only in February. Most people have been moaning about his down year, but really, he’s not far behind what he accomplished last season, and there’s still time for him to exceed it. Iggy’s been getting more touches as the season has progressed, and that’s a trend that should definitely continue in the wake of Brand’s shut down. The fact that Iguodala has shot the ball better this season (47.5 per cent) bodes well for a big second half, offensively.

In both of the losses during its two-game skid, Philly coughed up leads late. Thursday, the Sixers held their own. That’s a trend that will have to continue if this team hopes to keep moving up the Eastern Conference standings. But as long as they keep finding ways to win (11 in the past 15 games), the Sixers are going to be a team no one is interested in meeting come playoff time in April.

The 76ers took over the game in the third quarter, outscoring Indy 26-13 and you can thank Willie Green for this run. He poured in 11 of his season-high 23 points in the quarter. With Brand out, perhaps it’s time to consider Green in a deeper league as a possible wire pickup. Sure, he’s been inconsistent as hell (he scored a 20 points last Friday, but just 12 in the next two games before his explosion Thursday), but you’ve got to figure his waning PT should turn around now. I mean, with season highs in points twice in the past four games, Green deserves a bit more burn and if he starts regularly seeing 25 or more minutes, he’ll be worth a pickup. Even though he’s a backcourt player, Green’s value has been directly tied to Brand’s status. Green lost his starting job to Iggy this year, as Iggy moved from the three to the two to accommodate Brand in the frontcourt, but Green is back starting since Brand got hurt, and now it looks like he’ll hang onto the role for the remainder of the season. One note, however: I’d watch how the minutes shake out between Green and Lou Williams before making a claim on either.

With Brand toast, Philly needs a more balanced attack like it received Thursday when five players hit double-digits in scoring. In addition to Green, Iguodala and Miller, Samuel Dalembert came through with a big night (18 points and 20 boards) while Thaddeus Young (also expected to benefit from Brand’s injury), pitched in with 14 points.

Days before the Arizona Cardinals nearly applied a death blow to Steeler Nation, the Pro Football Hall of Fame, in conjunction with Coors Light, released its list of the 10 coldest games in NFL history. A panel of some of the NFL’s all-time greatest players narrowed their selection down to 10 epic contests. When asked about the bone-chilling 10 games RotoRob’s reaction perhaps best summed up the players’ sentiments.

“It’s !#*@* cold.”

Without further ado, let’s take a look:

No. 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10), January 19, 2003

Temperature: 26 degrees (wind Chill: 16 degrees)

Memorable Moment: With the score 20-10 Tampa, Donovan McNabb tried to rally his teammates and lead a fourth quarter comeback in the final game at venerable Veterans Stadium. In what is the defining moment of the Andy Reid era in Philadelphia thus far, Buc cornerback Ronde Barber interrupted the comeback by taking an interception 90 yards for a touchdown. Barber’s big play prompted him to say afterwards “Pro Bowl my *** baby, I’m going to San Diego damn it.”

No. 9 – Tennessee Titans (14) @ New England Patriots, (17), January 10, 2004

Temperature: 4 degrees (wind chill: -10 degrees)

Memorable Moment: Tom Brady + Best Patriots Defense during the Bill Belichick era = Home Field Advantage; Steve McNair + physical defense – washed up Eddie George = good team that cannot score quite enough.

No. 8 – Oakland Raiders (17) @ Denver Broncos (20), January 1, 1978

Temperature: 18 degrees (wind chill: N/A, but reportedly cold enough to freeze your ‘nads off)

Memorable Moment: In the game’s critical sequence, Bronco running back Rob Lytle took a handoff, dove towards the goalline and fumbled. Raider defensive tackle Mike McCoy scooped up the ball took off towards the end zone. Unfortunately for the Raiders, the play was blown dead and the officials claimed Lytle never fumbled. Television replays suggested otherwise (back in the ’70s, the instant replay was still a decade away from becoming reality). Denver scored on the next play. Oakland eventually fell 20-17. Years later, it was revealed that Raider defensive tackle John Matuszak was bothered not by the cold weather but instead partying a bit too hard a night earlier. The Broncos got word of it and took advantage.

No. 7 – New York Giants (7) @ Green Bay Packers (16), December 30, 1962

Temperature: 13 degrees (wind chill: N/A, but when your pee freezes before it hits the ground, it’s friggin’ cold)

Memorable Moment: The weather proved to be the game’s defining factor with winds up to 40 miles per hour. Jim Taylor scored the game’s lone touchdown for Green Bay, while offensive lineman Jerry Kramer booted three field goals to secure the Pack’s second NFL title.

No. 6 – Oakland Raiders (13) @ New England Patriots (16), January 19, 2002

Temperature: 20 degrees (wind chill: N/A, but apparently cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey…no, I don’t get that either)

Memorable Moment: Unless you lived under a rock for the past 10 years, this is known as the “Tuck Game” and is mostly noted for the ill-fated call that eventually turned a Brady game-ending fumble into a mystifying game-tying field goal by Patriot kicker Adam Vinatieri. This is the game that got the Patriot dynasty off the launching pad and started to turn that Brady fellow into a star.

No. 5 – New York Giants (23) @ Green Bay Packers (20), January 20, 2008

Temperature: -4 degrees (wind chill: -24 degrees)

Memorable Moment: A brief interlude if I may…one of my friends refers to Brett Favre as ‘old red nose’ for his penchant to resemble Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer during games in this type of weather. With the Giants reeling and the Packers controlling the ball in overtime, Rudy with his nose so bright fired his final pass at Lambeau Field as a Packer…into the hands of Giant cornerback Corey Webster. A few plays later, the Giants went to Super Bowl XLII and one of America’s greatest mini-series began: Brett Favre Holds America (and the Packers) Hostage!

No. 4 – Oakland Raiders (10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (16), January 4, 1976

Temperature: 11 degrees (wind chill: N/A, but cold enough to cross the Mississippi on foot)

Memorable Moment: The best moment of the game, besides the fans storming the field like lunatics, came prior to the start of the game. It was alleged by Raider owner Al Davis that the Steeler grounds crew didn’t take the best care of the Astroturf at Three Rivers Stadium. In fact, Davis believed that the crew allowed tears to occur in the tarp covering the field. The precipitation that hit the area that week led to patches of ice all over the field. Thus, Oakland’s greatest offensive asset – team speed – was deemed moot. With the Oakland aerial assault grounded, the Steelers won the AFC title 16-10 and eventually defended their world title.

No. 3 – Los Angeles Raiders (23) @ Buffalo Bills (29), January 15, 1994

Temperature: 0 degrees (wind chill: -32 degrees)

Memorable Moment: Another Raider entry? Are we sure this poll wasn’t conducted by Steeler fans looking to highlight Raider shortcomings? It does seem a little bizarre that a somewhat warm weather team like the Raiders has been involved in this many frozen classics. At any rate, when the clock hit zero in the fourth quarter, the Bills vanquished the Raiders and advanced to another AFC title game. Soon after the game, you could hear America collectively groaning “oh no, here we go again.” At least for Raider fans that day it wasn’t another 51-3 debacle.

No. 2 – San Diego Chargers (7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (27), January 10, 1982

Temperature: -9 degrees (wind chill: -59 degrees)

Memorable Moment: The game itself wasn’t very good. However, seeing players try to catch the ball in this weather was almost laughable at times. Making matters worse for San Diego was the fact that it had just been in the epic playoff tilt against Miami a week earlier. In these conditions, the Chargers laboured to score points. By the way, I’ve never understood the pandering towards the ’81 Chargers that occurs from time to time. They played poor defense, weren’t a great running team and were by and large one-dimensional. Sure, they had skill players, but that doesn’t always pay the bills in the clutch.

No. 1 – Dallas Cowboys (17) @ Green Bay Packers (21), December 31, 1967

Temperature: -13 degrees (wind chill: -48 degrees)

Memorable Moment: The weather tales from this one are legendary. Cowboy Hall of Fame receiver Bob Hayes ran pass patterns with his hands in his pants. Meanwhile, a referee had a whistle stick to his lips. As for the game, the Packer dynasty — on its last legs — outlasted the Cowboys for the second straight season to win the NFL championship. Green Bay quarterback Bart Starr snuck in from one yard away to give Green Bay its last NFL title under head coach Vince Lombardi. Everyone is so quick to romanticize the ’58 NFL title game, but this is the definitive game in league history. While maybe not as influential, it’s one of the most historic battles of all time.

Editor’s Note: Did you miss the boat on joining an NBA fantasy league this fall? No problem-o. Over at Draftbug.com you can hop in whenever you like and play in a fantasy league that features a shorter season. Try daily or weekly leagues. That sure takes the sting out watching your team suck all season after a crappy draft. Go check out Draftbug.com and tell them RotoRob sent you (we get free Popsicles for every one who signs up!).

BY ALEX ZELVIN, Draftbug.com

I realize that most of you are primarily interested in fantasy baseball, but since it’s basketball season, I thought I’d share some fantasy hoops strategy to help you win at Draftbug and other daily fantasy basketball contests (such as Snapdraft). My approach to this (and it’s worth mentioning that I haven’t had time to try this out yet) is fairly similar to the approach I used to win the 2008 Rotohog Baseball contest. I’d recommend doing the following in MS-Excel:

1. Calculate player statistics in all scoring categories per minute played. This gives you an idea how good the player is when they’re actually in the game.

2. Estimate expected minutes played for all players. Assuming that you don’t follow basketball closely, I’d probably use something like the average of the last five or 10 games. You’re going to miss out on players filling in for very short periods when someone is injured (and those probably are the best values), but at least you’ll also avoid giving a high ranking to most players who were filling in and will be pushed to the bench by returning players. Giving someone who won’t play a top rating is a much worse mistake to make here than underrating someone who will play more than expected. For instance, don’t put too much stock into the fact that Daniel Gibson played 32 minutes Tuesday night in the Cavs’ win over the Raptors. First of all, it was a blowout win. Secondly, with Sasha Pavlovic sidelined with the flu, Boobie got extra run. That won’t happen consistently, so don’t let it fool you into overinflating his value.

3. Make an adjustment to play statistics based on whether the player is home or away. I would add 2 per cent for home players and subtract 2 per cent for players on the road. That may be slightly under adjusting, but in general I’d rather do this than overshoot with my adjustments.

4. Make an adjustment for opponent. You can get fancy with this and try to use statistics for how opponents affect specific statistics or players at specific positions’ stats, but for starters just calculate the impact specific teams have on opponents’ scoring, and adjust projections by that amount. So if a given team allows 95 points per game vs. a league average of 100 points per game, then adjust their opponents’ projections in all categories down the difference (in this case, 5 per cent, so your calculation will be projections x 0.95).

5. Calculate a points projection using Draftbug’s scoring system based on the statistical projection you’ve done.

6. Select a team that balances solid undervalued players based on your points projection with top rated players (who may or may not be underpriced).

You can refine this strategy to be more precise, but I’m fairly certain that it will be a winning one, even in the relatively crude form described above.

The Dallas Mavericks aren’t ready to fold the tent just yet, apparently. The Mavs have won three straight games, including sweeping their tour of the State of Florida and now head home for a match against a very hot Blazer team that tends to be middling on the road. Don’t look now, but Dallas has passed the Suns to move into seventh in the West, and is breathing down the back of the fifth-place Hornets. Rumours of Dallas’ death have proved to be premature.

While Dallas isn’t dominating defensively like it has in the past, Rick Carlise’s crew is slightly improved its offensive numbers this season.

And clearly, the Mavs have Orlando’s number. After kicking the Magic’s ass Monday, Dallas has now won five of the past six games in this series. The fact that it was in Orlando makes it even more impressive a win for Dallas, because typically no one beats the Magic on its homecourt. Actually, lately no one has been beating Orlando anywhere, so this was a big win for a Dallas team that has had a tough time beating top clubs.

Jason Kidd flashed a bit of O Monday with 13 points while adding four steals and a block, but he continues to be horribly inconsistent, disappearing offensively for games at a time before occasionally showing up with a nice touch like he did Monday (6-for-9). For J-Kidd to start February with a fine shooting performance is a great sign as he rebounded in January (41 per cent) after a bitterly cold December (31.6 per cent). If Kidd can build on this, we might actually start seeing him reach double digits in scoring a bit more regularly. Remember that as bad as he was shooting last year before the Nets dealt him (36.6 per cent), he turned it around upon arriving in Dallas (42.6 per cent). So while Kidd hasn’t been able to match that, keep in mind that his 41.5 per cent shooting this season is actually a fair bit over his career norms.

Good sign for Dallas: The Mavs, not exactly a strong perimeter defensive squad, held the best three-point shooting team in the NBA in check, as Orlando sunk just 3-of-20 from beyond the arc on Monday (including a mere 1-for-7 in the first half). Of course, Dallas couldn’t contain the Magic’s outside game and stop Dwight Howard from going crazy (35 points, 11 rebounds). But a W is a W.

This had some shades of Dallas’ great run in recent years, when defense led the way to some huge seasons. While the Mavs are only on pace to win 48 or 49 games this season (after a disappointing 51-win season last year), their late-January run, that has carried on into February, bodes well for a possible turnaround in the second half.

Erick Dampier pulled down seven boards and scored six points before fouling out Monday, but his PT has dipped in recent weeks, and I’d only recommend him as an option in a deeper league. In fact, his PT has been dropping for a couple of seasons now, making him one of those starting centres that simply doesn’t offer enough value to be a viable fantasy option. Think guys like Zaza Pachulia and Matt Bonner. Dampier fits into that category – if you didn’t need X amount of centres on your team, none of these players would ever find their way off the wire.