Editor’s Note: Did you miss the boat on joining an NBA fantasy league this fall? No problem-o. Over at Draftbug.com you can hop in whenever you like and play in a fantasy league that features a shorter season. Try daily or weekly leagues. That sure takes the sting out watching your team suck all season after a crappy draft. Go check out Draftbug.com and tell them RotoRob sent you (we get free Popsicles for every one who signs up!).

BY ALEX ZELVIN, Draftbug.com

I realize that most of you are primarily interested in fantasy baseball, but since it’s basketball season, I thought I’d share some fantasy hoops strategy to help you win at Draftbug and other daily fantasy basketball contests (such as Snapdraft). My approach to this (and it’s worth mentioning that I haven’t had time to try this out yet) is fairly similar to the approach I used to win the 2008 Rotohog Baseball contest. I’d recommend doing the following in MS-Excel:

1. Calculate player statistics in all scoring categories per minute played. This gives you an idea how good the player is when they’re actually in the game.

2. Estimate expected minutes played for all players. Assuming that you don’t follow basketball closely, I’d probably use something like the average of the last five or 10 games. You’re going to miss out on players filling in for very short periods when someone is injured (and those probably are the best values), but at least you’ll also avoid giving a high ranking to most players who were filling in and will be pushed to the bench by returning players. Giving someone who won’t play a top rating is a much worse mistake to make here than underrating someone who will play more than expected. For instance, don’t put too much stock into the fact that Daniel Gibson played 32 minutes Tuesday night in the Cavs’ win over the Raptors. First of all, it was a blowout win. Secondly, with Sasha Pavlovic sidelined with the flu, Boobie got extra run. That won’t happen consistently, so don’t let it fool you into overinflating his value.

3. Make an adjustment to play statistics based on whether the player is home or away. I would add 2 per cent for home players and subtract 2 per cent for players on the road. That may be slightly under adjusting, but in general I’d rather do this than overshoot with my adjustments.

4. Make an adjustment for opponent. You can get fancy with this and try to use statistics for how opponents affect specific statistics or players at specific positions’ stats, but for starters just calculate the impact specific teams have on opponents’ scoring, and adjust projections by that amount. So if a given team allows 95 points per game vs. a league average of 100 points per game, then adjust their opponents’ projections in all categories down the difference (in this case, 5 per cent, so your calculation will be projections x 0.95).

5. Calculate a points projection using Draftbug’s scoring system based on the statistical projection you’ve done.

6. Select a team that balances solid undervalued players based on your points projection with top rated players (who may or may not be underpriced).

You can refine this strategy to be more precise, but I’m fairly certain that it will be a winning one, even in the relatively crude form described above.

Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers: While he’s still experiencing some growing pains in his first season on the court, Oden showed exactly what he is capable of with his 24-point, 15-rebound performance against the Bucks on Monday – he also sandwiched a pair of six-block efforts on either side of his work against Milwaukee. There are still going to be nights where he disappears, but he should be owned in all leagues. If he’s available in yours he should be added immediately.

Kendrick Perkins, Boston Celtics: Last Sunday I noted that Perkins wasn’t expected back for about a month. Well, disregard that as the bruiser is already back in action after missing only five games. Thanks for the accurate injury information <site name withheld>. Douchebags. But I digress; Perkins would make an excellent addition if another owner cut him loose a couple weeks back. He’s not much of a scorer, but he does strong work on the glass and is a capable shot blocker.

Best of the Rest

There’s no denying things are a mess in Clipperland right now, but rookie DeAndre Jordan might be worth a watch list designation – in three starts, he’s averaging 11.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.7 blocks per game…Former Florida Gator Joakim Noah has started Chicago’s last six games, and while his scoring has been underwhelming, he recently logged 29 rebounds in a two-game stretch. If you’re hurting on the glass he could be worth a flier in deeper leagues…I liked Amir Johnson coming into the season, and while he hasn’t done a lot to justify my pre-season endorsement thus far, his insertion back into the starting lineup creates a glimmer of hope. Take note…Al Horford’s continued absence allows Zaza Pachulia to retain his modest value, though he has had as many poor games as good ones during his ongoing seven-game stint as a starter.

Forwards

Charlie Villanueva, Milwaukee Bucks: A popular sleeper candidate entering the season, Villanueva has had more than his fair share of snooze-inducing performances thus far. However, since re-entering the starting lineup on January 16, the former UConn star has averaged 22.2 points and 8.8 rebounds in six games – that includes four double-doubles. He has tantalized with his talent before and is a must own in all leagues based on his enormous potential.

Danilo Gallinari, New York Knicks: The rookie returned January 17 after missing nearly three months. He has played sparingly thus far, but performed well in his limited run. He’s a quality shooter and could post strong numbers in Mike D’Antoni’s offense if he gets enough minutes, which is something the Knicks figure to provide him given their 18-25 mark. Add him if you’re looking to roll the dice on some upside.

Best of the Rest

Travis Outlaw has had some big games this month, highlighted by his 33-point outing on January 12 – overall he has reached double figures in seven of his 10 January games. However, his peripheral numbers could still use some work, which makes him an option only for owners trolling for scoring…Don’t let the fact that he looks like a mid-’80s villain in a Jean-Claude Van Damme flick dissuade owners in deep leagues from taking a look at Louis Amundson. He’s ringing up 5.9 points, 5.4 boards, 1.1 blocks and 2.4 bottles of pony tail wax per night this month – not bad…Could a rash of front court injuries in the Big Easy actually be enough to make Melvin Ely a fantasy factor? Unlikely – but just in case owners in deep leagues should place him on their watch list.

Guards

Ramon Sessions, Milwaukee Bucks: A season-ending knee injury to Michael Redd should mean we’ll be seeing the back court pairing of Luke Ridnour and Sessions quite a bit in the coming weeks. Sessions has been quiet in January (6.8 points, 3.8 assists per game) but has shown before to be capable of posting very strong fantasy numbers. He deserves consideration in all leagues. Charlie Bell (ankle) should also appear on your radar, though he continues to deal with an ankle injury of his own and hasn’t played in the team’s last three games.

Kirk Hinrich, Chicago Bulls: The 28-year-old continues to impress off the pine in the Windy City, pouring in 43 points and 22 assists in his last three games combined. He isn’t shy from beyond the arc either (12-for-30 in seven games this month), making him a solid three-category addition even in shallower formats.

Anthony Parker, Toronto Raptors: December was a terrible month for Parker, who averaged 6.9 points per contest in 14 games. He has bounced back since the calendar changed to 2009, returning to the starting lineup and posting respectable point (13.3 PPG) and rebounding (4.9 RPG) numbers. His overall shooting has been solid, though he continues doing masonry work beyond the three-point line, heaving up bricks at a 27.8 per cent clip. If you’re adding him, make sure your three-point percentage can take the hit.

Best of the Rest

Injuries have forced Sasha Pavlovic into the starting lineup for the past four games, during which he has logged nearly 34 minutes per night. His numbers (11.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) aren’t stellar, but his minutes suggest those in need of back court help find a spot for him…In seven games since returning from injury, Raja Bell has launched 31 triples – unfortunately he has only hit nine of them. Still, that kind of volume makes him a possibility for teams searching for a boost from downtown…A strong December gave way to a brutal January for Mario Chalmers, but he has shown signs of playing out of his slump recently. If a less patient owner gave him his walking papers you can consider bringing him on board.