Ah, it’s finally March. In a mere two weeks, it’ll all be about upsets and draws. We’ll pick apart 32 games from every possible nuanced angle. But to get to the glory of the double digit Cinderella, we have regular season and conference tournament action on the docket. RotoRob’s March Madness coverage will begin gearing up now with periodic look-ins at the college basketball world.

We’ll kick off with an examination of the bubble teams that look good.

Who’s Looking Out (…of the bubble…on to the inferior teams)

Dayton (24-5, RPI 28) – Obviously, playing in the A-10 ain’t quite as tough as other conferences, but Dayton really shouldn’t have to sweat this one out. It’s been very good with quality wins over Xavier (11) and Marquette (30). Losses to Charlotte (193) and Massachusetts (172) aren’t great, but Dayton is 17-0 at home and have another chance to impress with an away game at Xavier tomorrow. Probable seed: 6 or 8.

Texas A&M (20-8, RPI 34) – A&M should not be in this position. Its schedule should have included decent out of conference games which would have either assured it a spot or definitely shown it doesn’t belong. As it stands, we’re not really sure what to do with this squad. No glaring losses. No great wins. Overall, the RPI is good and it did beat LSU (22). But it lost every statement game. If it beats Missouri on Saturday, it’ll be in a much better spot. Probable Seed: 9 or 10.

Arizona (18-11, RPI 47) – The Wildcats have put up three quality top 25 RPI wins in Kansas (7), Washington (13), and UCLA (25). A couple bad losses at Stanford (110) and at Washington St. (89) are blemishes. Still, Arizona has a ton of good quality victories and just need to finish strong. Probable Seed : 10 or 11.

Michigan (17-12, RPI 48) – Amazingly, the Wolverines haven’t appeared in the NCAA tournament since 1998 (or was it 1989?). Something about scandals and sanctions and whatnot. Michigan has played a really tough schedule this year – it ranks ninth overall – so its 17-12 record is actually better than it looks. Quality wins include Duke (1) Illinois (19), Purdue (24) and UCLA (25) on a neutral court. Among the 12 losses, 11 were to definite tournament or bubble teams. Only Iowa (111) could really go down as a bad loss. Probable Seed: 9 to 11.

Boston College (20-9, RPI 49) – The Eagles have beaten Duke (1), UNC away (3), and Florida State (16) this season. But they also lost to Harvard (247) at home. Come on, how does that happen? Anyway, they’re on the course for the tourney. Probable Seed: 7 or 8.

St. Mary’s (22-5, RPI 53) – Well, this guy seems to think St. Mary’s is in. I guess he’s got a point. The committee has been known to take injuries into account when making selections, and the…ummm…Gaels (that’s a bird, right?) are 18-1 with “star guard” Patrick Mills. Without him, they are 4-4. Quality wins over Utah St. (32) and San Diego St. (46) should propel these winged creatures to March Madness. Probable Seed: 12 or 13.

Obviously, some will disagree that these are all tourney teams if they remain on their current trajectory, but I’ll stand by them…until selection day at least.

Welcome to the first edition of The Hidden Truth, a new NBA fantasy column in which I will be focusing on exposing the stats and players that win fantasy leagues. For instance, everyone knows Allen Iverson can hoop, but what are the consequences of starting him in your fantasy league? Does he shoot a high percentage? For those Roto-lovers out there, all categories are equal. First place in steals is the same as first place in points. So let’s dive in!

The first edition of this column will focus on field goal percentage. It is evident that if you take more shots farther from the rim, your shooting percentage is usually lower, so you have to take these rankings with a grain of salt. Just because Chauncey Billups shoots a low percentage does not make him a worse fantasy player than Ronnie Brewer, who is in the top 10 in FG percentage. To build a championship fantasy hoops squad, you must be balanced, but it does help to have guys with high field goal percentages at all positions.

Today we will look at the guards.

Top 10 High Percentage Finishers

1. Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics (50.3%): The Celtic point guard is a solid fantasy player as he puts up decent points, assists, rebounds, and steals, but he shines in the field goal percentage category. This is a product of taking good shots in a good system, but man has he ever come a long way from his rookie season when his shooting was considered a major weakness.

2. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets (49.6%): Mr. Do-it-all also does not miss too often.

3. Ronnie Brewer, Utah Jazz (49.5%): Jerry Sloan likes this slasher because he gets good shots. People may see him as a role player, but he is averaging over 13 PPG this season.

4. Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors (49.4%): Calderon does it a little differently — even though he is more of an outside shooter than Rondo or Tony Parker, he will help you in FG percentage just as much.

5. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs (49.4%): The Frenchman has perfected his 15-to-18 foot jumper from dead-on. This compliments his drives to the basket which create high percentage layups.

6. Ray Allen, Boston Celtics (49.1%): For a guy who chucks up threes at an alarming rate, it is a surprise that Ray-Ray clocks in at sixth on the list. I think people discount all of the layups he gets on baseline drives after doing a pump fake.

7. Andre Miller, Philadelphia 76ers (47.9%): The steady point guard always finds a way to take good shots.

8. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat (47.8%): Flash is back and he is doing his thing.

9. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (47.5%): Kobe makes more difficult shots than anyone in the league.

10. Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers (47.4%): Roy has a nice jumper, but he also can finish near the rim, as we saw on his dramatic game-winning bucket against the Knicks recently.

Honourable mention: Derrick Rose (47.3%), Leandro Barbosa (47.2%), Mike Miller (47.2%), Deron Williams (47.2%), Steve Nash (46.8%), Mo Williams (46.8%)

Note: Jameer Nelson was shooting over 50 per cent from the field, but he is now out for the season, so he was not included on this list.

Top 10 Clankers

1. Baron Davis, Los Angeles Clippers (35.2%): Too many bad shots coupled with injury problems has left B-Diddy as a bust this season.

2. Tracy McGrady (38.8%), Houston Rockets: T-Mac loves to shoot and can be very streaky. Now, he’s on the shelf.

3. Raymond Felton, Charlotte Bobcats (39.4%): Will learn to take better shots.

4. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (40.7%): The former UCLA guard will get better with time as he works off Durant.

5. Randy Foye, Minnesota Timberwolves (40.9%): Nobody in American has seen all of the misses. Have the Timberwolves ever played on national TV?

6. Chauncey Billups, Denver Nuggets (41.6%): Mr. Big Shot is also Mr. Big Miss, but in fairness, he shoots a lot of three balls, and that hurts his percentage.

7. Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks (41.6%): His jumper is as ugly as his kid.

8. Jamal Crawford, Golden State Warriors (41.7%): This baller could drop 30 points or shoot under 30 per cent on any given night.

9. Kevin Martin, Sacramento Kings (41.9%): He forces it a lot, but then again the Kings do suck, so who else is going to chuck it up?

10. Allen Iverson, Detroit Pistons (42.1%): AI has always been a “volume” shooter…everywhere he goes.

Dishonourable mention: Mike Conley (42.4%), Chris Duhon (42.4%), Derek Fisher (42.4%), Mario Chalmers (42.6%), Roger Mason (42.7%), Joe Johnson (43.3%), Nate Robinson (43.8%), Vince Carter (43.9%).

As mentioned before, this list does not determine a player’s overall worth. It is just one factor you should consider when building your fantasy lineup. Also, bear in mind that I tried to focus on fantasy relevant players. I am not going to argue if you say Daniel “Booby” Gibson should be on the list because his percentage is lower than Billups. However, in my mind, anyone named Booby should be a fantasy free agent.

Next: On Wednesday, we’ll take a look at the top-shooting and worst-shooting Forwards.