Chris Bosh looks sharp in a suit, but is no longer the go-to man on his team.
By RotoRob and Buck Davidson
It’s late-September, so with baseball season winding down, and our NHL Draft Kit almost wrapped, today we officially launch the 2010-11 RotoRob NBA Draft Kit. Over the next few weeks, we’ll bring you a bevy of cheat sheets, sleepers, busts and rookies to watch this coming season. So while you wonder if the Nuggets will move Carmelo Anthony before the season starts, let’s take a look at ten players (in no particular order) that we are avoiding (or at least not reaching for) on draft day.
1. Kevin Garnett, PF, Boston Celtics: The days of KG being an automatic first or even second round pick are well in the rear view mirror. And those that still reach for him anywhere before the fifth or sixth round just based on name recognition are setting themselves up for a huge fall. Garnett’s production plummeted as soon as he became part of the Big Three in Boston, but now you have to also worry about how fragile his knees have become. His range isn’t anywhere near where it was during his prime and the 34-year-old doesn’t even average a block per game any longer. — RR
2. Chris Kaman, C, Los Angeles Clippers: Kaman averaged 18.5 PPG last season – a massive surprise considering his career average is just 11.8 PPG. He hasn’t played a full 82 games since he was a rookie, and missed 77 combined games in the two years prior to last season. Kaman retains his starting slot, but if Blake Griffin is healthy, there’s no way Kaman matches the numbers he enjoyed last season. — BD
3. Chris Bosh, PF, Miami Heat: Just like what happened with Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen in Boston, Miami’s Big Three will suffer individually for the greater good of the team, but it is Bosh whom I expect to take the biggest hit. Yes, he’ll get his boards and some blocks here and there, but he’s going from the No. 1 scoring option on his team all the way to No. 3, and that’s going to hurt any of his owners that still consider CB4 a late first round or early second round talent. — RR
4. Luis Scola, PF, Houston Rockets: He’s coming off a monster performance at FIBA, but Scola will likely be hard pressed to match last year’s numbers with Yao Ming back and Brad Miller now aboard to clog up the paint. Kevin Martin could increase his scoring after a full training camp with the team, and that may also hurt Scola’s production. – BD
5. Zach Randolph, PF, Memphis Grizzlies: What are the chances Randolph stays healthy and plays great two seasons in a row? Well, do you feel lucky, punk? Even if Z-Bo gets as many touches as he did last season, he won’t be draining them at the same rate, as he should regress closer to his career norms. That should translate into less points, and for a big man that doesn’t block shots and doesn’t shoot at a high percentage, any reduction in scoring will hurt. Having said that, Randolph is entering a contract year, so at the very least you know he’s highly motivated. — RR
6. Troy Murphy, PF, New Jersey Nets: Murphy moves from a Fantasy-friendly environment to the pits of Joisey. He’ll have two highly-touted youngsters (Derrick Favors and Damion James) competing for playing time, and the club may opt for a Youth Movement once they’re eliminated from playoff contention in mid-November. Of course, if Murphy heads to Denver in a deal for ‘Melo, all bets are off. — BD
7. John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards: Don’t get us wrong, we’re high on Wall’s future, but he’s going to be drafted way higher than he should considering Gilbert Arenas is still there. Wall’s going to be a solid rookie and Washington is handing him the keys to the offense, but don’t make the mistake of reaching for him. — RR
8. Luol Deng, SF, Chicago Bulls: Deng goes from the undisputed No. 2 scoring option to No. 3a/3b with Kyle Korver behind Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer. Deng is also injury prone, and it’s unlikely Chicago will keep his minutes as high (38 per game in ‘09-10) this season, although he is rumoured to be on the trading block. — BD
9. Marcus Camby, PF, Portland Trail Blazers: Similar to Z-Bo, expecting Camby to stay healthy and effective two years in a row is asking a lot, but with the Cambyman, you’ve got the added threat of the returning Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla to eat into his minutes, rebounding and block numbers. Camby can’t possibly duplicate his numbers in this timeshare. — RR
10. John Salmons, SG/Corey Maggette, SF, Milwaukee Bucks: It may be a stretch to call this pair full fledged busts, but it’s hard to imagine either of them matching last year’s scoring output over a full season with the Bucks given the depth this team suddenly has. When Chris Douglas-Roberts is your 11th man you’re a deep squad. Maggette, in particular, may start slowly as he’s coming off ankle surgery. — BD